Simpson’s Paradox

Prac07 Jeffreys
Definition
„ Simpson's paradox (or the Yule-Simpson
effect) is a statistical paradox in which the
successes of several groups seem to be
reversed when the groups are combined.
 Main Example
„ The following example data comes from PJ Bickel, EA Hammel, and JW O'Connell.
"Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions: Data from Berkeley" Science, 187 (1975), 398-
404.

Applicants % admitted

Men 8442 44%

Women 4321 35%

Main Example
Departmen Men Women
t
A 825 62% 108 82%
B 560 63% 25 68%
C 325 37% 593 34%
D 417 33% 375 35%
E 191 28% 393 24%
F 272 6% 341 7%
 Main Example
S tu d e n t a d m is s io n s a t U C B e rk e le y
D e p a r tm e n t A D e p a r tm e n t B D e p a r tm e n t C
A d m i tte d R e j e c te d A d m i tte d R e j e c te d A d m i tte d R e j e c te d

Male
Male

Male
Sex

Sex

Sex

Female
Female

emale
A d m it A d m it A d m it

D e p a r tm e n t D D e p a r tm e n t E D e p a r tm e n t F
A d m i tte d R e je c te d A d m i tte d R e j e c te d d m i tte d R e je c te d
Male

Male
Male
Sex

Sex

Sex
Female

Female
Female

A d m it A d m it A d m it
Main Example
„ Why is this?

Women tended to apply to departments

with low rates of admission, while men
tended to apply to departments with
high rates of admission.
Main Example
This is the behavior of Simpson's
paradox.

An apparent association between two

variables can disappear or even reverse
when data is combined.
Another example
Group Sum N Grade

1 800 10 80 (A)

2 560 8 70 (B)

3 80 2 40 (F)

Total 1,440 20 72 (B)

 Another example

80% + 70% + 40%

Average = = 63%(C )
3

„ Is this true???

NO.
 Another example
80% *10 + 70% *8 + 40% * 2
Average = = 72%( B)
20

„ Weighted average
The average is still so high (B) since most
of the students got high mark, instead
only 2 of us got fail grade unfortunately.
Any questions?