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G. Moricca: Senior Petroleum Engineer Moricca - Guiseppe@libero - It
G. Moricca: Senior Petroleum Engineer Moricca - Guiseppe@libero - It
G. Moricca
Senior Petroleum Engineer
May 2017
moricca.guiseppe@libero.it
G. Moricca 1
Integrated Field Development Plan
Content
Oil and gas project plan refers to the unique
requirements of managing science, technology,
engineering aspects and economical topics of projects
in the upstream oil and gas industry.
Once the basic organizational structure has been selected, all positions should be
identified, coded and a personnel mobilization schedule selected.
Time
Cost control can be no better than the project control budget with which
actual costs are compared.
Reservoir Drilling
structure Completion Production
Reservoir Flow Lines Injection
Where connectivity Facilities Disposal Decom
Reserves Delivering
is the mission
field? ing
1 2 3 4 5
Discovery Appraisal Development Production Abandonment
NPV
($)
Develop without
[B]
appraisal information
Cost of appraisal
$[A]
Develop with appraisal
[C]
information
Procurement of materials
Installation of facilities
Time Frame - Offshore drilling often takes much longer to complete than onshore drilling.
An onshore well typically takes only a matter of days to drill, meaning production can begin
much faster. An offshore well can take months or years to build. This means an onshore
project is up and running much faster than offshore facilities.
Offshore drilling presents much more of a challenge due to the shear depth of the water
just to reach the earth’s surface. The force the waves, especially in deep, rough waters,
presents major stability issues. This activity requires a manmade working surface to hold
the drilling equipment and facilities with some type of anchoring to the ocean floor.
Onshore drilling rigs are the more classic drilling equipment and come in different sizes
and strengths. They are generally classified by their maximum drilling depth and their
mobility. Conventional land rigs cannot be moved as a whole unit and are typically used in
the petroleum industry while mobile rigs are drilling systems that are mounted on wheeled
trucks and come in two different types, jackknife and portable mast.
May 2017 G. Moricca 25
Offshore vs Onshore Drilling Cost
The costs for onshore versus offshore drilling are much different. Offshore drilling tends to
cost much more due to the increased difficulty of drilling in deep water. The specific cost
depends on a number of variables, including the specific location, any special
circumstances, well size, design and drilling depth.
On average, an onshore oil well costs between $5.0 MM and $10.0 MM in total well
capital costs. Additional lease operating expenses between $1 MM and $3.5 MM may also
play into the cost over the life span of the well. The following breakdown shows a general
explanation of where those costs are dispersed:
- Drilling – 30 to 40% of costs: This category encompasses any tangible and intangible
costs associated with actually drilling the well.
- Completion - 55 to 70% of costs: The completion costs include both tangible and
intangible aspects of things like well perforations, fracking, water supply and disposal.
- Facilities - 7 to 8% of costs: Onshore drilling activities require storage and other facilities
and the associated expenses. This might include the equipment itself, site preparation
and road construction.
- Operations: The operations cost often come from the additional lease operation
expenses, which include well maintenance and delivery cost.
May 2017 G. Moricca 26
Offshore vs Onshore Drilling Rigs
Offshore drilling rigs are classified differently, mainly based on their movability and how
deep the sea bed is. There are two types of offshore drilling rigs:
1. Bottom-supported units are rigs that have contact with the seafloor. There are
submersible bottom-supported units and also jack up units that are supported by
structured columns.
2. Floating units do not come in direct contact with the ocean floor and instead float
on the water. Some are partially submerged and anchored to the sea bed while
others are drilling ships which can drill at different water depths.
- Drilling – 60% of costs: Drilling takes up a much larger portion of the costs for offshore
drilling activities.
- Completion - 40% of costs: The completion activities take up the remaining costs, which
include well perforations, rig hiring, transportation and well head equipment.
- Facilities - 7 to 8% of costs: Onshore drilling activities require storage and other facilities
and the associated expenses. This might include the equipment itself, site preparation
and road construction.
- Operations: Like onshore drilling activities, the operation costs fall into the lease
operating expenses for the well.
G G G
1 2 3
FEL-1 FEL-2 FEL-3 Detailed Operations
Conceptual Preliminary Eng. Design Eng. Design Support
Engineering Engineering Fully define Implement Monitor
scope. execution plan. performance.
Clear frame Generate
goal. alternatives.
Develop detailed Final design Final design
Identify Reduce execution plans.
opportunities. uncertainty and Implement Benchmark
quantify Refine estimates execution plan. performance
Preliminary associated risks. and economic against objectives
assessment of analysis to A/R Collect, analyze, and competitors.
uncertainties, Develop expected level. and share metrics
potential return, value for selected and lessons Share results and
and associated alternatives. Confirm expected learned. lessons learned.
risks. value meets
Identify preferred
business Continue
alternative(s).
Plan for next objectives. performance
phase. Plan for next assessment and
phase. identify
opportunities.
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy Cost accuracy
Cost accuracy
±40% ±25% ±15% ±5%
The oil and gas industry has consistently used the combination of both
methodologies of the PMI and IPA in the development of major projects,
with particular attention on the front-end loading methodology (FEL), which
combines an approach of so-called "rolling wave planning", with a vision of
technical and cost integration in the light of the IPA's empirical tools.
FEL 2: Conceptual engineering - This is the stage of development that includes the
evaluation and selection of conceptual alternatives. The main focus of this phase is
the development of conceptual engineering for options listed in FEL 1, in order to
compare the options and define, through the results of the financial-economic
assessment of each option, which alternative will make it through to the next phase.
FEL 3: Basic engineering - In this phase, the focus is the construction and the
preparation of the project for its corporate approval and future implementation. The
basic engineering of the selected option in FEL 2 is performed, allowing the
calculation of project capex with greater precision. The engineering solution
selected in FEL 2 is technically detailed and more value improving practices are
considered in the development of the basic engineering design.
May 2017 G. Moricca 35
Tasks to be accomplished for a reliable Field
Development Plan
1
• Set an Integrated FDP Team and Define a clear Target Feasibility
Front End Loading (FEL-1)
2
• Data Acquisition, Data Storing and Data Validation
Identify opportunities.
Preliminary assessment.
3
• Development of a robust Reservoir Model Conceptual Engineering
4
• Conceptual FDP Scenario – Qualitative evaluation
Selection
5
• Field Development Strategy Identification Front End Loading (FEL-2)
6
• Consolidation of FDP Scenario - Quantitative Generate alternatives
6A
• Economic Evaluation Identify preferred.
alternative.
6B
• Uncertainty Analysis
6D
• Health, Safety and Environmental
6E
• Final Selection Field Development alternative
7
• Field Development Plan Approval
May 2017 G. Moricca 36
Contents of final FDP document
Typical Contents of a Field Development Plan document:
1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
3. Field History and Background
4. Reservoir Characterization & Geological Modelling
5. Reservoir Simulation & Performance Prediction
6. Techno-Economic Evaluation of Prediction Scenarios
7. Executive Prediction Scenario
8. Drilling & Completion Proposal
9. Project Scope of Work & Execution Schedule
10. Project Cost Estimation
11. Quality Management System
12. Health, Safety, and Environment
13. Governing Standards
May 2017 G. Moricca 37
•Set an
Integrated FDP
Team and
1 Define a clear
Target
G G G
1 2 3
FEL-1 FEL-2 FEL-3 Detailed Operations
Conceptual Preliminary Eng. Design Eng. Design Support
Engineering Engineering Fully define Implement Monitor
scope. execution plan. performance.
Clear frame Generate
goal. alternatives.
Develop detailed Final design Final design
Identify Reduce execution plans.
opportunities. uncertainty and Implement Benchmark
quantify Refine estimates execution plan. performance
Preliminary associated risks. and economic against objectives
assessment of analysis to A/R Collect, analyze, and competitors.
uncertainties, Develop expected level. and share metrics
potential return, value for selected and lessons Share results and
and associated alternatives. Confirm expected learned. lessons learned.
risks. value meets
Identify preferred business Continue
Plan for next alternative(s). objectives. performance
phase.
Plan for next assessment and
phase. identify
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy opportunities.
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy
±40% ±25% ±15% ±5%
Only this well can provide the certainty about whether crude oil
or natural gas really does exist in the explored area after the
seismic measurements have been conducted.
When evaluation of the well data and analysis of the drill cores
come to the clear conclusion that oil or gas has been found, this
means a potential development project has been identified. The
next phase, field development, can now begin.
Role:
Be custodian of the objectives of project
Identify priorities
Allocate the assigned human resources
Promote and facilitate the correct integration of permanent and
part-time team components
Avoid lack of communication among the team component and
management
May 2017 G. Moricca 48
FDP Target Identification
Identification of a clear target based on
the data collected during the field
appraisal and in line with company
strategy.
2. Reservoir Connectivity
- Reservoir Characterization and 3D Geologic Modeling
- Geological Inter-well Connectivity Evaluation
- Fluid and Saturation-Dependent Properties
- Initial Reservoir Pressure Estimation
- PVT Matching
- History Matching Reservoir Performance
Corporate database
- Corporate database stores the official data of the company.
- Data quality is high and the rate of change (volatility) is low.
- No new data is created within the Corporate database, and it does
not feed any application, except its own set of utilities for browsing,
selecting and exporting.
- Data are delivered in a format compatible with the Project database.
- Although the database can be accessed by anyone, changes in
content are controlled by an administrator.
- It usually resides in a mainframe and is characterized by the many
controls that are placed around it.
May 2017 G. Moricca 57
Three Levels Database [from L. Cosentino 2001 Technip]
Project database
- It contains data relevant to a particular project or asset.
- It is made up of information withdrawn from the Corporate database
and is accessed using software from different vendors.
- Its size is highly variable, from few to thousands of wells, and it may
contain multiple versions of the same data.
- All the professionals working on the team can access and modify the
database, so that the volatility is high.
- New data is generated through the interpretation stages.
- When the project has been completed, the interpreted data is
returned to the Corporate database and becomes the new reference
information.
Application database
- It contains data relevant to a single application.
Depositional environment, diagenesis, lithology, structure, Exploration, discovery Exploration & development
Geological faults, and fractures & development geologists
Discovery, delineation,
Formation volume factors, compressibilities, viscosities, Reservoir engineers and
Fluid chemical compositions, phase behavior, and specific gravities
development, and
laboratory analysts
production
There are many reasons to perform a simulation study. Perhaps the most
important, from a commercial perspective, is the ability to generate oil
production profiles and hence cash flow predictions.
In this context, there is little doubt that reservoir simulation is the only qualified
technique that allows for the achievement of such objectives. Simpler
techniques like material balance are particularly useful for evaluating the
reservoir mechanisms, but are not suited for reservoir forecasting.
Reservoir simulation, on the other hand, offers the required flexibility to study
the performance of the field under defined production conditions. All
commercial simulators are provided with sophisticated well-management
routines that allow the engineer to specify the operating conditions at the levels
of producing interval, well, well group, reservoir and field.
May 2017 G. Moricca 66
Geological and Dynamic Reservoir Model
The geological model defines the “geological units” and their continuity and
compartmentalization.
Reservoir Characteristics
1. Areal and Vertical extent of production formation
2. Isopach map of gross and net pay
3. Correlation of layers and others zones
To initialize a reservoir simulation model, the initial oil, gas and water pressure
distribution and initial saturations must be defined in the reservoir model. Pressure data
are usually referenced to some datum depth. It is convenient to specify a pressure and
saturation at the datum depth and then to calculate phase pressures based on fluid
densities and depths
The initialization of the reservoir simulation models is the process where the reservoir
simulation model is reviewed to make sure that all input data and volumetrics are
internally consistent with those in the geo-model. The reservoir simulation model should
normally be in dynamic equilibrium at the start of production, but there might be some
exceptions to that rule. Non-equilibrium at initial conditions may imply some data error
or the need to introduce pressure barriers (thresholds) between equilibrium regions.
The initialisation phase allows for the calculation of the OOIP in the model, which is
then compared with the available volumetric figures.
When differences are found, modifications are made to the input data in order
to improve the match.
Porosity
- Well log and cores
Water saturation
- Well logs and/or cores
Recovery efficiency
- Analogy
- Drive mechanism
- Reservoir characteristics
May 2017 G. Moricca 89
OHIP Deterministic scenario
When using the deterministic scenario method, typically there should also be low,
best, and high estimates, where such estimates are based on qualitative assessments
of relative uncertainty using consistent interpretation guidelines. Under the
deterministic incremental (risk-based) approach, quantities at each level of uncertainty
are estimated discretely and separately.
It is customary in the industry to describe this uncertainty in terms of a low and high
range.
May 2017 G. Moricca 90
OHIP Estimation by Volumetric Method
Probabilistic (Stochastic) Approach
The basic idea behind a probabilistic computation is to take into account
the uncertainties related to the various parameters involved in the
computation.
OHIP = A x h x ф x So
Where: (A) is the reservoir area average, (h) is the net hydrocarbon thickness, (φ)
the average porosity and (So) the oil saturation.
Stochastic models (as Monte Carlo Simulation ) provide the average answer
(assuming that all input values represent the average input value) but tell us
nothing of the range or probability of possible answers.
A x h x ф x So = OOIP
5.26 26.24
MMbbl MMbbl
The range of uncertainty of the recoverable and/or potentially recoverable volumes may
be represented by either deterministic scenarios or by a probability distribution. When
the range of uncertainty is represented by a probability distribution, a low, best, and
high estimate shall be provided such that:
- There should be at least a 90% probability (P90) that the quantities actually
recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
- There should be at least a 50% probability (P50) that the quantities actually
recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
- There should be at least a 10% probability (P10) that the quantities actually
recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
For volume estimates, a low (P90) - high (P10) range is thus unambiguously defined by
statistics. The situation is more complex for a production forecast because the forecast
is a timeline and not a scalar. This has led to a variety of uncertainty definitions for the
forecast used in the industry, and has hampered progress in deriving the best methods,
tools and processes for deriving the forecast uncertainty range.
The Material Balance OHIP estimation is performed by the Havlena and Odeh techniques.
A comparison of the results of the various cases will show at a glance the
most interesting (technical) exploitation options
The decline of field flow rate can be against by appropriate depletion strategy involving a proper
pressure support according to the reservoir characteristics.
No pressure
support
3. Water drive
4. Combination drive
Once the plateau is reached, the facilities are filled and any extra
production potential from the wells is choked back.
In the solution gas drive reservoirs, the producing GOR starts at the
initial solution GOR (Rsi), decreases until the critical gas saturation
is reached, and then increases rapidly as the liberated gas is
produced into the wells.
The producing GOR may decline in later years as the remaining
volume of gas in the reservoir diminishes.
optimized solution.
May 2017 G. Moricca 121
Solution Gas Drive
Reservoirs Performance
Multiple reservoir
simulation runs, combined
with an adequate
economic analysis, are
require to define the
problem and identify a
proper optimized solution.
The table
summarizes the
distinguishing
characteristics of
each.
PetroWiki
Distribution of water, oil, and gas and position of gas/oil contact (GOC) in a
segregating-gas-cap reservoir: (a) before production and (b) during depletion.
Segregating gas caps are gas caps that grow and form an enlarged gas cap zone.
The segregation-drive mechanisms can be augmented by crestal gas injection.
May 2017 G. Moricca 130
Non-Segregating Gas Caps Reservoir
The prediction of
the size and
permeability of the
aquifer is usually
difficult, since there
is typically little data
collected in the
water column.
Oil saturation refers to the fraction of the rock’s pore volume filled with oil, and
is dependent on the shape and dimensions of the pores, the properties of the oil,
and the interaction between the rock and the fluids governed by interfacial
tensions and wettability (the tendency of a fluid to stick to the rock’s surface.
The relative permeability to a fluid is defined as the ratio between the effective
permeability to that fluid and the absolute permeability of the rock. Absolute
permeability is an intrinsic property of reservoir rock, and defines the ease with
which a fluid can flow through the interconnected pore spaces when the rock is
saturated in a single fluid, whereas effective permeability defines a fluid’s ability
to do the same in the presence of other fluids (water, gas, oil).
On the other hand, every fluid has a saturation point, referred to as critical
saturation; below this point, the fluid is no longer mobile, though still present
within the porous medium; at that point the relative permeability becomes
zero.
May 2017 G. Moricca 146
Relative Permeability Curve
During the viscous displacement flood the water saturation increases from its
irreducible value ( Swc ), at which it is immobile, to the maximum or flood-out
saturation ( Sw = 1 – Sorw ) at which the oil ceases to flow.
Since steady state is not reached, Darcy’s Law is not applicable. The Buckley-
Leverett equation for linear fluid displacement is the basis for all calculations of
relative permeability.
May 2017 G. Moricca 148
Relative Permeability Laboratory
Measurements [2]
There are essentially five means by which relative permeability data can be
obtained:
- Direct measurement in the laboratory by a steady state fluid flow process
- Direct measurement in the laboratory by an unsteady state fluid flow
process
- Calculation of relative permeability data from capillary pressure data
- Calculation from field performance data
- Theoretical/empirical correlations
M ≤ 1 means that the injected water cannot travel faster than the
oil and therefor displaces the oil in perfect piston-like manner.
M ≤ 1 Stable displacement (piston-like displacement)
M > 1 Unstable displacement (water fingering, poor oil recovery)
May 2017 G. Moricca 153
Mobility ratio M
Using typical parameters for North Sea fields:
Krw = end point water relative permeability (dimensionless) = 0.3
Kro = end point oil relative permeability (dimensionless) = 1
µw = water viscosity (cp) = 0.4
µo = oil viscosity (cp) = 0.8
𝑲𝒓𝒘 𝑲𝒓𝒐
𝑴= / = 0.6
𝝁𝒘 𝝁𝒐
M≤1 Oil
Water
Good ‘piston
like’ flooding
- Varying continuity, interconnection, and areal extent of porous and permeable layers
throughout the reservoir that can induces poor waterflooding efficiency.
- Fractures or high permeability channels, that induce a channeling flow and a consequent
premature water breakthrough.
- Fault trends that affect the connection of one part of an oil reservoir to adjacent areas,
either because they are flow barriers or because they are open conduits that allow
unlimited flow along the fault plane, and consequently very poor waterflooding
efficiency.
May 2017 G. Moricca 160
Impact of Permeability Heterogeneity
on Oil Displacement Efficiency [1]
The effect of different permeability distributions across a continuous reservoir
section can be illustrated considering three cases as follow.
Gravity segregation
Easy to be drilled.
Less expensive.
May 2017 G. Moricca 177
J-shape
J-shape wells are made up of a vertical
section, a deep kick off and a build up
to target. They are also called Deep
Kick off wells or J Profile wells (as they
are J - shaped).
The completion planning for the injector is the same of the producer but
considering that the is in of “hydraulic injection flow condition” only.
The completion design mast take into account the evolution of the
production/injection characteristics (BHFP, WC, GOR) of the well along the field
life time, according to the production/injection forecast.
May 2017 G. Moricca 184
Single Completion [1]
Single zone completion is one of the
types of upper completion which allows
producing only one zone. Production
tubing is a flow path for fluid from a
reservoir to flow to the surface so it
protects the casing from corrosion and
maximizes the efficiency of the flow.
Design concepts
In a multilateral completion, a unique system may mechanically connect directional and
horizontal laterals to a parent well bore, allowing production from the individual laterals to
be selectively produced or commingled.
May 2017 G. Moricca 192
Offshore Wells
Completion
Globally, more than 70% of the wells in deepwater developments that are
either in service or committed are wet tree systems.
March 2017 G. Moricca 194
Wet tree systems
Subsea cluster wells gathers the production in the most efficient and
cost-effective way from nearby subsea wells, or from a remote
/distant subsea tie-back to an already existing infrastructure based on
either a FPSO or a FPU
- Fluid properties
- Hydrocarbon in place
May 2017 G. Moricca 200
Conceptual definition of the Field
Development Scenario [2]
The main scope of the task is to:
- Take decision ‘to do’ or ‘not to do’, and
- Select the Field Development Scenario
Cost accuracy
±40%
G G G
1 2 3
FEL-1 FEL-2 FEL-3 Detailed Operations
Conceptual Preliminary Eng. Design Eng. Design Support
Engineering Engineering Fully define Implement Monitor
scope. execution plan. performance.
Clear frame Generate
goal. alternatives.
Develop detailed Final design Final design
Identify Reduce execution plans.
opportunities. uncertainty and Implement Benchmark
quantify Refine estimates execution plan. performance
Preliminary associated risks. and economic against objectives
assessment of analysis to A/R Collect, analyze, and competitors.
uncertainties, Develop expected level. and share metrics
potential return, value for selected and lessons Share results and
and associated alternatives. Confirm expected learned. lessons learned.
risks. value meets
Identify preferred business Continue
Plan for next alternative(s). objectives. performance
phase.
Plan for next assessment and
phase. identify
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy opportunities.
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy
±40% ±25% ±15% ±5%
Vertical / Deviated
Cost-effective
Well Architecture Horizontal way for fluids
Strategy
Multilateral withdrawal
Subsurface
Characterization
Project
Objective
Surface Drilling
Facilities Completion
Fluid Properties
- Subsea and topside design.
- Operation and maintenance( hydrate, wax and deposits,
corrosion).
Reservoir data
Crude oil properties
Drilling and Completion technologies to be adopted
Risk of pollution
Geographic location
Water depth
Distance from Shore Base and/or Terminal
Environmental conditions
Soil criteria
Functional and operational requirements
Governing Codes of Practice
Special or unusual Design Codes
March 2017 G. Moricca 214
Identification of a FDP Clear Strategy
Identify the most effective strategy to reach the predefined Company Target
finding a proper answer to the questions like the following:
Reservoir hydrocarbon withdrawal strategy:
- natural depletion ?
- water injection?
- gas injection ?
- water and/or gas injection ?
Optimum wells location and spacing ?
Optimum plateau rate ?
Stand-alone development or subsea tie-in to existing platform(s) ?
Platform or subsea-to-land solution ?
Platform concepts (e.g. floating or fixed, with and without drilling facilities) ?
Integration with existing platform(s) or infrastructure ?
Transport solution for oil: pipeline transport or offshore loading ?
Transport solution for gas (compression demand, processing requirements) ?
Design for easy decommissioning and removal ?
Emphasis on
Reduction of uncertainties
Reduction of influence of uncertainties
1. Depletion Strategy
- Natural Depletion
- Natural Depletion followed by Water/Gas Injection for Pressure Maintenance
- Natural Depletion followed by Waterflooding for Secondary Recovery
3. Lifting Strategy
- Natural flow at minimum wellhead flowing pressure
- Artificial lifting flow
- Artificial lifting flow providing some extra surface blustering pressure
5. Perforation Strategy
- Single Flow Unit
- Commingled Flow Units
- Partial Penetration
6. Completion Strategy
- Single Completion onshore - Dry Completion offshore
- Dual Completion onshore – Subsea Completion offshore
Primary Recovery
Step 3 – Run reservoir model (sensitivity) to assess the minimum well number
required to produce the reservoir economically, as well as the optimal well
location and well type (e.g. vertical, slant, horizontal, multilateral, etc.).
Step 6 – Make the economic analysis for each well–spacing configuration and
identify the most cost-effective Ultimate Recover development scheme.
Step 9 – Re-run the economic analysis to maintain under control the profitability
of the project.
G. Moricca 225
May 2017
Consolidation of the Field Development Scenario
Workflow - Case without production history [6]
Step 10 – Production build-up period and the duration of production plateau
optimization by adoption of appropriate drilling-time schedule.
- Profile [A] illustrates a gradual increase of production as the
producing wells are drilled and brought on stream; the duration of
the production build-up period is strictly related to the drilling
- Profile [B], in which schedule.
some wells have been
pre-drilled starts - Profile [C] is characterized by a plateau production rate longer
production at plateau than for case A and B. The vantage of profile C is that it requires
rate. The vantage of
pre-drilling is to smaller facilities and probably less wells to produce the same
advantage the UR. One additional advantage of profile Cis that the lower
production of oil, which production rate, and therefore slower displacement in the
improves the reservoir, may improve the UR.
production cashflow,
but the disadvantage
are that the cost of
drilling has been
advantaged, and that
the opportunity has
been lost to gather
early production
information from the
first few wells, which
may influence the
location of subsequent
wells. Economic criteria
are used to decide
whether to pre-drill.
Step 11 – Make the economic and risk analysis for each production profile
2. Formulating scenarios for project development. Engineers and geologists are the primary
contributors with management guidance.
3. Collecting operation and
economic data (see the
dedicated Tab).
Year Year (MSTB) ($/BBL) ($MM) (MMSCF) ($/MSCF) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
2018 1 0 50.0 0.0 0 1.5 0.0 0.0 5.7
2019 2 0 50.0 0.0 0 1.5 0.0 0.0 64.7
2020 3 5,405 50.0 270.3 3,276 1.5 4.9 275.2 244.0
2021 4 8,079 50.0 404.0 5,934 1.5 8.9 412.9 74.2
2022 5 9,024 50.0 451.2 7,208 1.5 10.8 462.0 0.0
2023 6 9,068 50.0 453.4 5,848 1.5 8.8 462.2 0.0
2024 7 7,021 50.0 351.0 2,968 1.5 4.5 355.5 0.0
2025 8 4,004 50.0 200.2 2,031 1.5 3.0 203.3 0.0
2026 9 2,511 50.0 125.6 2,179 1.5 3.3 128.8 0.0
2027 10 1,803 50.0 90.2 3,469 1.5 5.2 95.4 0.0
2028 11 1,306 50.0 65.3 4,763 1.5 7.1 72.5 0.0
2029 12 972 50.0 48.6 3,364 1.5 5.0 53.6 0.0
2030 13 685 50.0 34.3 2,200 1.5 3.3 37.6 0.0
2031 14 620 50.0 31.0 1,087 1.5 1.6 32.6 6.4
2032 15 500 50.0 25.0 1,087 1.5 1.6 26.6 6.4
Total 51,000 2,550.0 45,415.3 68.1 2,618.1 401.3
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
150.0
125.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
-25.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
-50.0
-75.0
-100.0
-125.0
80
Recovered oil +30% Project NPV @ 12% = 283.9 $million
40
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
-40
Uncertainty
All risks are uncertainties,
however, not all
Risk
uncertainties are risks
Risk Uncertainty
Possible consequences
of uncertainty
Risk Opportunity
- Possibility of loss or injury - Possibility of exceeding expectation
- A dangerous element or factor - Upside potential
- The probability of loss - An attractive element or factor
Cost Impact of Insignificant < 5% cost 5-10% cost 10-20% cost > 20% cost
Risk cost increase increase increase increase increase
Cost Impact of Insignificant < 1% cost 1-3% cost 3-5% cost > 5% cost
Opportunity cost reduction decrease decrease decrease decrease
Time Schedule Insignificant <1 month 1-3 months 3-6 months > 6 months
Impact of Risk slippage slippage slippage slippage slippage
Time Schedule
Insignificant < 1 month 1-2 months 2-3 months > 3 months
Impact of
improvement improvement improvement improvement improvement
Opportunity
Probability 1–9% 10–19% 20–39% 40–59% 60–99%
Risk Matrix
5 - Very High 5 10 20 35 50
4 - High 4 8 16 28 40
Probability
3 - Moderate 3 6 12 21 30
Rating
2 - Low 2 4 8 14 20
1 - Very Low 1 2 4 7 10
Quantitative Risk Assessment Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Risk = Impact x Probability 1 2 4 7 10
Impact Rating
7. Register the main item on the Risk Register and detail the item
by discipline, and include actions for risk mitigation and define
the responsible party who will follow-up on each item.
R1 Management
R2 Financial
R3 Operational
R4 Technology
Avoid Mitigate
Eliminate cause of risk Reduce probability or impact of risk
(impact or the probability is high)
Risk
Accept Transfer
Contingency plan for (risk is low in Third party (insurance) take on
terms of probability and impact) responsibility (risk impact is high but
To be included in a watch list the probability is low)
Exploit Enhance
Make sure opportunity occurs Only If it is highly probable (the
opportunity is real) and has good
impact
Opport
unity
Accept Share
Allocate resource for further If good impact but low probable to
investigation occur, give third party ownership of
probability
Methods:
- Drill stem test.
- More appraisal wells.
- Extended well test.
- Early production.
- Staged development.
G G G
1 2 3
FEL-1 FEL-2 FEL-3 Detailed Operations
Conceptual Preliminary Eng. Design Eng. Design Support
Engineering Engineering Fully define Implement Monitor
scope. execution plan. performance.
Clear frame Generate
goal. alternatives.
Develop detailed Final design Final design
Identify Reduce execution plans.
opportunities. uncertainty and Implement Benchmark
quantify Refine estimates execution plan. performance
Preliminary associated risks. and economic against objectives
assessment of analysis to A/R Collect, analyze, and competitors.
uncertainties, Develop expected level. and share metrics
potential return, value for selected and lessons Share results and
and associated alternatives. Confirm expected learned. lessons learned.
risks. value meets
Identify preferred business Continue
Plan for next alternative(s). objectives. performance
phase.
Plan for next assessment and
phase. identify
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy opportunities.
Cost accuracy Cost accuracy
±40% ±25% ±15% ±5%
Strategy
FDP
Knowledge
Organization
Dear Reader,
I get bored to enjoy my beautiful garden,
so, I am looking to come back in the real game to help E&P
Companies in daily attempt to generate value.