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Best Practices Est Wac Cup Date
Best Practices Est Wac Cup Date
Best Practices Est Wac Cup Date
15
16 JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE – NO. 1, 2013
HQDEOHVWHDFKHUVWRDQVZHUWKHLQHYLWDEOHTXHVWLRQ³%XWKRZ A standard means of expressing a company’s cost of
do companies really estimate their cost of capital?” capital is the weighted-average of the cost of individual
The paper is part of a lengthy tradition of surveys of sources of capital employed. In symbols, a company’s
industry practice. For instance, Burns and Walker (2009) weighted-average cost of capital (or WACC) is:
examine a large set of surveys conducted over the last
TXDUWHU FHQWXU\ LQWR KRZ 86 FRPSDQLHV PDNH FDSLWDO WACC = (Wdebt(1-t) Kdebt) + (WequityKequity), (1)
EXGJHWLQJGHFLVLRQV7KH\¿QGWKDWHVWLPDWLQJWKHZHLJKWHG
where:
average cost of capital is the primary approach to selecting
K = component cost of capital.
hurdle rates. More recently, Jacobs and Shivdasani (2012)
W = weight of each component as percent of total capital.
UHSRUWRQDODUJHVFDOHVXUYH\RIKRZ¿QDQFLDOSUDFWLWLRQHUV
t = marginal corporate tax rate.
implement cost of capital estimation. Our approach differs
from most papers in several important respects. Typically For simplicity, this formula includes only two sources of
studies are based on written, closed-end surveys sent capital; it can be easily expanded to include other sources
HOHFWURQLFDOO\ WR D ODUJH VDPSOH RI ¿UPV RIWHQ FRYHULQJ D as well.
wide array of topics, and commonly using multiple choice Finance theory offers several important observations
RU ¿OOLQWKHEODQN TXHVWLRQV 6XFK DQ DSSURDFK W\SLFDOO\ when estimating a company’s WACC. First, the capital costs
yields low response rates and provides limited opportunity DSSHDULQJLQWKHHTXDWLRQVKRXOGEHFXUUHQWFRVWVUHÀHFWLQJ
to explore subtleties of the topic. For instance, Jacobs and FXUUHQW¿QDQFLDOPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQVQRWKLVWRULFDOVXQNFRVWV
Shivdasani (2012) provide useful insights based on the ,QHVVHQFHWKHFRVWVVKRXOGHTXDOWKHLQYHVWRUV¶DQWLFLSDWHG
Association for Finance Professionals (AFP) cost of capital LQWHUQDOUDWHRIUHWXUQRQIXWXUHFDVKÀRZVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
survey. While the survey had 309 respondents, AFP (2011, each form of capital. Second, the weights appearing in the
page 18) reports this was a response rate of about 7% based HTXDWLRQ VKRXOG EH PDUNHW ZHLJKWV QRW KLVWRULFDO ZHLJKWV
on its membership companies. In contrast, we report the based on often arbitrary, out-of-date book values. Third,
result of personal telephone interviews with practitioners WKHFRVWRIGHEWVKRXOGEHDIWHUFRUSRUDWHWD[UHÀHFWLQJWKH
from a carefully chosen group of leading corporations and EHQH¿WVRIWKHWD[GHGXFWLELOLW\RILQWHUHVW
¿QDQFLDODGYLVRUV$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHLVWKDWPDQ\ 'HVSLWH WKH JXLGDQFH SURYLGHG E\ ¿QDQFH WKHRU\ XVH RI
H[LVWLQJSDSHUVIRFXVRQKRZZHOODFFHSWHGPRGHUQ¿QDQFLDO the weighted-average expression to estimate a company’s
WHFKQLTXHVDUHDPRQJSUDFWLWLRQHUVZKLOHZHDUHLQWHUHVWHG cost of capital still confronts the practitioner with a number
LQ WKRVH DUHDV RI FRVW RI FDSLWDO HVWLPDWLRQ ZKHUH ¿QDQFH RIGLI¿FXOWFKRLFHV2 As our survey results demonstrate, the
theory is silent or ambiguous and practitioners are left to most nettlesome component of WACC estimation is the cost
their own devices. RIHTXLW\FDSLWDOIRUXQOLNHUHDGLO\DYDLODEOH\LHOGVLQERQG
The following section gives a brief overview of the PDUNHWVQRREVHUYDEOHFRXQWHUSDUWH[LVWVIRUHTXLWLHV7KLV
weighted-average cost of capital. The research approach forces practitioners to rely on more abstract and indirect
and sample selection are discussed in Section II. Section III PHWKRGVWRHVWLPDWHWKHFRVWRIHTXLW\FDSLWDO
reports the general survey results. Key points of disparity are
reviewed in Section IV. Section V discusses further survey II. Sample Selection
results on risk adjustment to a baseline cost of capital, and
Section VI highlights some institutional and market forces This paper describes the results of conversations with
affecting cost of capital estimation. Section VII offers leading practitioners. Believing that the complexity of the
FRQFOXVLRQVDQGLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKH¿QDQFLDOSUDFWLWLRQHU VXEMHFW GRHV QRW OHQG LWVHOI WR D ZULWWHQ TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZH
ZDQWHG WR VROLFLW DQ H[SODQDWLRQ RI HDFK ¿UP¶V DSSURDFK
I. The Weighted-Average Cost of Capital told in the practitioner’s own words. Though our telephone
LQWHUYLHZV ZHUH JXLGHG E\ D VHULHV RI TXHVWLRQV WKH
$NH\LQVLJKWIURP¿QDQFHWKHRU\LVWKDWDQ\XVHRIFDSLWDO FRQYHUVDWLRQVZHUHVXI¿FLHQWO\RSHQHQGHGWRUHYHDOPDQ\
imposes an opportunity cost on investors; namely, funds are subtle differences in practice.
GLYHUWHG IURP HDUQLQJ D UHWXUQ RQ WKH QH[W EHVW HTXDOULVN Since our focus is on the gaps between theory and
LQYHVWPHQW6LQFHLQYHVWRUVKDYHDFFHVVWRDKRVWRI¿QDQFLDO application rather than on average or typical practice, we
market opportunities, corporate uses of capital must be
benchmarked against these capital market alternatives. 2 Even at the theoretical level, the use of standard net present value (NPV)
7KHFRVWRIFDSLWDOSURYLGHVWKLVEHQFKPDUN8QOHVVD¿UP decision rules (with, for instance, WACC as a discount rate) does not
can earn in excess of its cost of capital on an average-risk capture the option value of being able to delay an irreversible investment
H[SHQGLWXUH$V D UHVXOW D ¿UP PD\ ¿QG LW EHWWHU WR GHOD\ DQ LQYHVWPHQW
LQYHVWPHQW LW ZLOO QRW FUHDWH HFRQRPLF SUR¿W RU YDOXH IRU even if the current NPV is positive. Our survey does not explore the ways
investors. ¿UPVGHDOZLWKWKLVLVVXHUDWKHUZHIRFXVRQPHDVXULQJFDSLWDOFRVWV
BROTHERSON ET AL. – “BEST PRACTICES” IN ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL: AN UPDATE 17
4. What weighting factors do you use? A) 37% Target; 37% Current; 26% Not A) 73% Target/Optimal; 27% Current A) 50% Market; 50% Target
A) Target weights vs. current debt/ Reported % 09HTXLW\DQGGHEW % 09HTXLW\DQGGHEW
HTXLW\" % 09HTXLW\DQGGHEW09
B) Market vs. book weights? HTXLW\ZLWK%9GHEW%9ERWK
5. How do you estimate your before tax 26% US Treasury yield + spread 55% Current yield to maturity 83% Yield to maturity
cost of debt? 21% Marginal/YTM outstanding debt 45% New debt yield to maturity 17% Marginal cost of new debt
21% Weighted avg outstanding issues
5% Banker’s estimate
BROTHERSON ET AL. – “BEST PRACTICES” IN ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL: AN UPDATE
5% Current yield
5% Current rate, bank debt
11% Other
5% N/A
6. What tax rate do you use? 95% Effective marginal or statutory 100% Effective marginal or statutory 67% Marginal income tax rate
5% Other 33% Statutory corporate tax rate
7. How do you estimate your cost of 90% CAPM 100% CAPM 100% CAPM
HTXLW\",I\RXGRQRWXVH&$30VNLS 5% CAPM with dividend discount model
WRTXHVWLRQ and bond/stock relationship as a check Also mention dividend discount/
0RGL¿HGUHTXLUHGUHWXUQPRGHOXVLQJ growth, arbitrage pricing, and
beta Fama-French models
(Continued)
19
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
20
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
8. As usually written, the CAPM version 95% Yes 100% Yes 100% Yes
RIWKHFRVWRIHTXLW\KDVWKUHHWHUPV 5% No
a risk free rate, a volatility or beta
factor, and a market risk premium. Is
this consistent with your company’s
approach?
9. What do you use for the risk-free rate 52% 10-year Treasuries 73% 10-year Treasuries 50% Long-term Treasuries
(both maturity and measurement)? 21% 20-year Treasuries 18% 20-year Treasuries 33% Long-term Treasuries less
21% 30-year Treasuries 9% 30-year Treasuries historical “term premium”
21% use something other than the spot yield 36% use some historical average rather
to maturity (e.g., some form of historical than the spot yield to maturity
averaging)
10. What do you use as your volatility or 53% Explicitly reference Bloomberg betas 73% Fundamental beta from Barra 100% Mention published sources
beta factor? 26% Use a published source (other than 44% Beta from Bloomberg
Bloomberg) or a third party advisors; 18% Self-calculated historical beta or
three of these mention Barra other published source
37% Mention self-calculated betas but some
may use Bloomberg for this
26% Mention comparisons across sources
(Continued)
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
11. What do you use as your market risk 43% Cite historical data only 73% Cite historical data—Ibbotson 100% Mention historical excess
premium? x 32% cite Ibbotson 18% Forward-looking DDM returns
2IZKRUHSRUWHGDVSHFL¿FQXPEHUUDQJH 2IZKRUHSRUWHGDVSHFL¿FQXPEHU
was 4.87-9.02%, and mean was 6.49% range was 4.0-8.5%, and mean was 6.6%
12. Do you use data from comparable 26% Yes, in order to get betas to relever or to 82% Use comps normally as benchmark 67% Recommend estimating
companies in estimating the cost of select appropriate risk class 8VHFRPSVRQO\LI¿UP¶V:$&& an industry asset beta and
capital? If so, how (e.g., averages 32% No looks unreliable relevering to the target’s
IRUDVXEVHWRI¿UPV\RXIHHODUH capital structure
comparable)? 42% Indirectly as a check or reference
13. Having estimated your company’s cost 53% Yes 91% Yes/As appropriate 33% Discuss further adjustments
of capital, do you make any further 37% No 9% No for small cap and industry
BROTHERSON ET AL. – “BEST PRACTICES” IN ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL: AN UPDATE
(Continued)
21
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
22
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
+DYH¿QDQFLDOPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQV 26% Yes 27% Yes One notes recent volatility as one
of the last few years caused you to 63% No 64% No reason practitioners use “target”
change the way you estimate and use weights rather than raw “market”
the cost of capital? 5% Unsure 9% No response weights when measuring capital
5% Not internally, but advising IBs have structure
made adjustments
16. Is the cost of capital used for purposes 42% Yes Not asked 67% Discuss in context of
other than project analysis in your 47% No performance measurement
company? (For example, to evaluate and EVA
divisional performance?) 5% Indirectly
33% Are silent
5% Decline to answer
17. Do you distinguish between strategic 68% Yes Not asked Not mentioned
and operational investments? Is cost 32% No
of capital used differently in these two
categories?
If do distinguish, is cost of capital used
differently (N=13):
23% Yes; 39% No; 30% Maybe; 5% N/A
18. What methods do you use to estimate Not asked 100% Both multiples and perpetual $OOUHFRPPHQG'&)HTXDWLRQV
terminal value? Do you use the same growth DCF model 50% recommend also using
discount rate for the terminal value as 55% Have no preference between models multiples and triangulating on
IRUWKHLQWHULPFDVKÀRZV" value. There is no discussion
27% Prefer perpetuity model of differing discount rates for
18% Prefer multiples approach terminal value and interim cash
91% Use same WACC for TV ÀRZV
(Continued)
Table II. General Survey Results (Continued)
Questions Corporations Financial Advisors Textbooks/Trade Books
20. In your valuations do you use any Not asked 9DOXHFDVKÀRZVGLIIHUHQWO\ZKHQ Not mentioned
different methods to value synergies warranted
or strategic opportunities (e.g., higher 73% Use a different discount rate for the
or lower discount rates, options risk
valuation)?
9% Use a different growth rate
21. How long have you been with the <HDUVZLWK¿UP5DQJH0HDQ Mean: 11.0 years (current bank) N/A
company? What is your job title? <HDUVLQ¿QDQFH5DQJH0HDQ Mean: 13.5 years (banking career)
1 Principal, 1 COO, 8 MD/D/EDs, 1 VP
All senior, except two
BROTHERSON ET AL. – “BEST PRACTICES” IN ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL: AN UPDATE
23
24 JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE – NO. 1, 2013
Table III. Compromises Underlying Beta Estimates and Their Effect on Estimated Betas of
Sample Companies
Bloomberg* Value Line* Barra
Number of observations 102 260 statistical models using
Time interval weekly over 2 yrs. weekly over 5 yrs. company characteristics
Market index proxy S&P 500 NYSE composite
³:HXVH%ORRPEHUJ¶VGHIDXOWFDOFXODWLRQ:HWDNHVSHFLDOFDUHWRVXSSRUWEHWDFKRVHQLIGRLQJDQDFTXLVLWLRQRUPDMRULQYHVWPHQW´
“We use Bloomberg (both historical and historical adjusted) plus Barra and calibrate based on comparing the results.”
“We use our beta and check against those of competitors. We unlever the peers and then relever to our capital structure. The results come
SUHWW\FORVHWRRXURZQEHWDVRWKDW
VFRQ¿UPLQJ´
“We use the median beta of comparable companies, based on analysis of size and business. We have a third party identify comparable
companies and betas.”
We use Barra and Bloomberg and triangulate based on those numbers. The problem comes up for getting a pure play for a division or a
company that hasn’t been public for a long time. We then have to pick comparable companies.”
(DFKOLQHRIEXVLQHVVKDVLWVRZQSHHUJURXSRIFRPSDQLHVDQGFRVWRIFDSLWDO8VLQJ¿YH\HDUEHWDVIURP%ORRPEHUJZH¿QGDQDYHUDJH
unlevered beta for the peer group and then relever to our corporate-wide capital structure.”
Table VI. Historical Averages to Estimate the Equity Market Risk Premium, (Rm - Rf)
Figures are the annual average risk premium calculated over the period 1926-2011 based on data drawn from Table II-I, Ibbotson (2012),
ZKHUHWKH5PZDVGUDZQIURPWKH³/DUJH&RPSDQ\6WRFNV´VHULHVDQG5IGUDZQIURPWKH³/RQJ7HUP*RYHUQPHQW%RQGV´DQG³86
Treasury Bills” series.
Relative to Relative to
T-Bill Returns T-Bond Returns
Arithmetic Mean 8.2% 5.7%
*HRPHWULF0HDQ 6.0% 3.9%
Even when historical returns are used to estimate the data from outside the US For instance, Dimson, Marsh, and
market risk premium, a host of differences emerge including 6WDXQWRQDSURYLGHHVWLPDWHVRIKLVWRULFDOHTXLW\ULVN
what data to use and what method to use for averaging. For premiums for a number of different countries since 1900.
instance, a leading textbook cites US historical data back Since our respondents all used longer-term Treasuries as
to 1900 from Dimson and Staunton (as cited by Brealey, their risk-free rate, the right-most column of Table VI most
0\HUVDQG$OOHQSZKLOHRIRXU¿QDQFLDO FORVHO\ ¿WV WKDW FKRLFH (YHQ ZKHQ UHVSRQGHQWV H[SOLFLWO\
advisors cite Ibbotson data which traces US history back to referenced the arithmetic or geometric mean of historical
1926. Among companies, only 32% explicitly cite Ibbotson UHWXUQVPDQ\URXQGHGWKH¿JXUHRUXVHGRWKHUGDWDWRDGMXVW
as their main reference for data and 11% cite other historical WKHLU¿QDOFKRLFH7KHQHWUHVXOWLVDZLGHDUUD\RIFKRLFHV
sources.14 for the market risk premium. For respondents who provided
Even using the same data, another chief difference was DQXPHULFDO¿JXUH7DEOH,,4XHVWLRQWKHDYHUDJHIRU
in their use of arithmetic versus geometric averages. The companies was 6.49%, very close to the average of 6.6%
arithmetic mean return is the simple average of past returns. IURP¿QDQFLDODGYLVRUV7KHVHDYHUDJHVPDVNFRQVLGHUDEOH
Assuming the distribution of returns is stable over time and variation in both groups. We had responses as low as 4%
that periodic returns are independent of one another, the and as high as 9%. The 4% value is in line with the Ibbotson
arithmetic return is the best estimator of expected return. The KLVWRULFDO ¿JXUHV XVLQJ WKH JHRPHWULF PHDQ VSUHDG
geometric mean return is the internal rate of return between a between stocks and long-term government bonds. The upper
single outlay and one or more future receipts. It measures the end of 9 percent comes from forward-looking estimates
compound rate of return investors earned over past periods. GRQHLQZKHQ86¿QDQFLDOPDUNHWVUHÀHFWHGDYHU\ORZ
It accurately portrays historical investment experience. interest rate environment.16 We add a word of caution in how
Unless returns are the same each time period, the geometric to interpret some of the differences we found in the market
average will always be less than the arithmetic average and risk premium since the ultimate cost of capital calculation
the gap widens as returns become more volatile.15 depends on the joint choice of a risk premium, the risk-free
Based on Ibbotson data (2012) from 1926 to 2011, Table rate and beta. We return to this issue when we illustrate
9, LOOXVWUDWHV WKH SRVVLEOH UDQJH RI HTXLW\ PDUNHW ULVN potential differences in the cost of capital.
premiums depending on use of the geometric as opposed As shown in Table VII, comments in our interviews
WRWKHDULWKPHWLFPHDQHTXLW\UHWXUQDQGRQXVHRIUHDOL]HG exemplify the diversity among survey participants. This
returns on T-bills as opposed to T-bonds. Even wider variety of practice displays the challenge of application
variations in market risk premiums can arise when one since theory calls for a forward-looking risk premium, one
changes the historical period for averaging or decides to use WKDWUHÀHFWVFXUUHQWPDUNHWVHQWLPHQWDQGPD\FKDQJHZLWK
market conditions. What is clear is that there is substantial
estimates of country risk premiums are based on projections of future variation as practitioners try to operationalize the theoretical
dividends in a multistage dividend discount model. At the time of our call for a market risk premium. And, as is clear in some
survey, the US country risk premium from Bloomberg was in the range of the respondent comments, volatility in markets has
of 8-9%, well above averages from historical returns. See Harris and
Marston (2001, 2013) for discussion of changing risk premiums over time. made the challenge even harder. Compared to our earlier
study (1998) in which respondents almost always applied
14
With only minor exceptions, our respondents used US data rather than historical averages, current practice shows a wider variation
rely on global indices for both their estimates of beta and the market in approach and considerable judgment. This situation
risk premium. Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton (2011a) discuss historical
estimates of the market risk premium using data from many countries.
points the way for valuable future research on the market
risk premium.
15
See Brealey, Myers, and Allen (2011), pages 158-159 for the argument
to support use of an arithmetic mean. For large samples of returns, the
geometric average can be approximated as the arithmetic average minus 16
Harris and Marston (2001, 2013) discuss evidence that the market risk
RQHKDOIWKHYDULDQFHRIUHDOL]HGUHWXUQV SUHPLXPLVLQYHUVHO\UHODWHGWRLQWHUHVWUDWHV
28 JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE – NO. 1, 2013
³:HWDNHDQDYHUDJHRIDULWKPHWLFPHDQDQGJHRPHWULFPHDQIRUHTXLW\ULVNSUHPLXP´
³5HÀHFWVDMXGJPHQWDOV\QWKHVLVRIYDULRXVDFDGHPLFYLHZVDQG¿QDQFLDOPDUNHWSHUVSHFWLYHV´
“Estimate a forward-looking risk premium. Use a methodology that incorporates S&P P/E ratio. It is a more volatile metric than using a
historical risk premium. Use historicals as a sanity check.”
“6.5-7%. We ask several banks how we compare to comparable companies, including comparable size and industry.”
“Use the long-term (1926-2011) Ibbotson's S&P 500 premium over the risk-free rate.”
&RPPHQWVIURP¿QDQFLDODGYLVRUVDOVRZHUHUHYHDOLQJ:KLOHVRPHVLPSO\UHVSRQGHGWKDWWKH\XVHDSXEOLVKHGKLVWRULFDODYHUDJHRWKHUV
presented a more complex picture.
"We used to apply the geometric mean, and then we switched to arithmetic. Now we use 4.6 - 6.6%, so we'll show for both ends of that
distribution. Based mainly on Ibbotson, but may add to that for emerging market companies.”
“Forward-looking estimate using dividend discount model…bank's proprietary model, which is forward-looking and uses S&P price
OHYHOSOXVSURMHFWLRQVDQGSD\RXWWRJHWDQLPSOLHGFRVWRIHTXLW\´
IV. The Impact of Various Assumptions for stream of $10 million would range between $117 million
Using CAPM and $218 million for Target, and between $109 million and
$151 million for UPS.
To illustrate the effect of these various practices on *LYHQWKHSRVLWLYH\LHOGFXUYHLQHDUO\WKHYDULDWLRQV
estimated capital costs, we mechanically selected the two in our illustration are explained by choices for all three
sample companies with the largest and smallest range of elements in applying the CAPM: the risk-free rate, beta, and
beta estimates in Table IV. We estimated the hypothetical WKHHTXLW\PDUNHWSUHPLXPDVVXPSWLRQ0RUHRYHUZHQRWH
FRVW RI HTXLW\ DQG :$&& IRU 7DUJHW &RUSRUDWLRQ ZKLFK that use of a 10-year Treasury rate in these circumstances
has the widest range in estimated betas, and for UPS which OHDGVWRTXLWHORZFRVWRIFDSLWDOHVWLPDWHVLIRQHVWLFNVWR
has the smallest range. Our estimates are “hypothetical” in traditional risk premium estimates often found in textbooks
that we do not adopt any information supplied to us by the which are in the range of 6%. From talking to our respondents,
FRPSDQLHV DQG ¿QDQFLDO DGYLVRUV EXW UDWKHU DSSO\ D UDQJH we sense that many are struggling with how to deal with
of approaches based on publicly available information as FXUUHQW PDUNHW FRQGLWLRQV WKDW GR QRW ¿W W\SLFDO KLVWRULFDO
of early 2013. Table VIII gives Target’s estimated costs of norms, a topic we discuss in more detail in Section VI.
HTXLW\ DQG :$&&V XQGHU YDULRXV FRPELQDWLRQV RI ULVN
free rate, beta, and market risk premiums. Three clusters
of possible practice are illustrated, each in turn using betas V. Risk Adjustments to WACC
DVSURYLGHGE\%ORRPEHUJ9DOXH/LQHDQG%DUUD7KH¿UVW
approach, adopted by a number of our respondents, uses a Finance theory is clear that the discount rate should rise
10-year T-bond yield and a risk premium of 6.5% (roughly DQGIDOOLQFRQFHUWZLWKDQLQYHVWPHQW¶VULVNDQGWKDWD¿UP¶V
WKH DYHUDJH UHVSRQVH IURP ERWK FRPSDQLHV DQG ¿QDQFLDO WACC is an appropriate discount rate only for average-risk
advisors). The second approach also uses a 6.5% risk LQYHVWPHQWV E\ WKH ¿UP +LJKULVN QHZ YHQWXUHV VKRXOG
premium but moves to a 30-year rate to proxy the long-term face higher discount rates, while replacement and repair
interest rate. The third method uses the ten-year Treasury investments should face lower ones. Attracting capital
rate but a risk premium of 9%, consistent with what some UHTXLUHV WKDW SURVSHFWLYH UHWXUQ LQFUHDVH ZLWK ULVN 0RVW
adopters of a forward-looking risk premium applied. We practitioners accept this reasoning but face two problems
repeated these general procedures for UPS when applying it. First, it is often not clear precisely how much
The resulting ranges of estimated WACCs for the two a given investment’s risk differs from average, and second,
¿UPVDUHDVIROORZV even when this amount is known, it is still not obvious how
Maximum Minimum Difference in large an increment should be added to, or subtracted from,
WACC WACC Basis Points WKH¿UP¶V:$&&WRGHWHUPLQHWKHDSSURSULDWHGLVFRXQWUDWH
Target 8.58% 4.58% 400 We probed the extent to which respondents alter
GLVFRXQWUDWHVWRUHÀHFWULVNGLIIHUHQFHVLQTXHVWLRQVDERXW
UPS 9.17% 6.62% 255
variations in project risk, strategic investments, terminal
The range from minimum to maximum is considerable for values, multidivisional companies, and synergies (Table II,
ERWK¿UPVDQGWKHHFRQRPLFLPSDFWSRWHQWLDOO\VWXQQLQJ7R Questions 13 and 17-20). Responses indicate that the great
illustrate this, the present value of a level perpetual annual SUHSRQGHUDQFHRI¿QDQFLDODGYLVRUVDQGWH[WDXWKRUVVWURQJO\
BROTHERSON ET AL. – “BEST PRACTICES” IN ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL: AN UPDATE 29
Table VIII. Variations in Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimates for Target Corporation
Using Different Methods of Implementing the Capital Asset Pricing Model
'DWDDUHDVRI-DQXDU\7KH&$30LVXVHGWRHVWLPDWHWKHFRVWRIHTXLW\,QWHUHVWUDWHVDUHIURP%ORRPEHUJDQGWKH)HGHUDO
Reserve. The cost of debt is assumed to be 4.21% (average of Aaa and Baa yields). We approximated the capital structure and tax rate
XVLQJWKHPDUNHWYDOXHRIHTXLW\DQGWKHPRVWUHFHQW¿QDQFLDOVWDWHPHQWV\LHOGLQJGHEWDVRIFDSLWDODQGDWD[UDWH
favor varying the discount rate to capture differences in risk is available about rates and prices. Correspondingly, virtually
(Table II, Questions 13, 19, and 20). Corporations, on the DOO DGYLVRUV TXHVWLRQHG YDOXH PXOWLGLYLVLRQ EXVLQHVVHV E\
other hand, are more evenly split, with a sizeable minority parts when the divisions differed materially in size and risk,
electing not to adjust discount rates for risk differences and over 90% are prepared to use separate division WACCs
among individual projects (Table II, Questions 13 and 17). WRUHÀHFWULVNGLIIHUHQFHV6LPLODUO\RIDGYLVRUVYDOXH
Comparing these results with our earlier study, it is worth merger synergies and strategic opportunities separately from
noting that while only about half of corporate respondents RSHUDWLQJFDVKÀRZVDQGDUHSUHSDUHGWRXVHGLIIHUHQW
DGMXVW GLVFRXQW UDWHV IRU ULVN WKLV ¿JXUH LV PRUH WKDQ GLVFRXQWUDWHVZKHQQHFHVVDU\RQWKHYDULRXVFDVKÀRZV
double the percentage reported in 1998. Despite continuing There is a long history of empirical research on how
hesitance, companies are apparently becoming more VKDUHKROGHU UHWXUQV YDU\ DFURVV ¿UP VL]H OHDGLQJ VRPH
comfortable with explicit risk adjustments to discount rates. academics to suggest that a small cap premium should
$ FORVHU ORRN DW VSHFL¿F UHVSRQVHV VXJJHVWV WKDW EH DGGHG WR WKH FDOFXODWHG FRVW RI FDSLWDO IRU VXFK ¿UPV17
respondents’ enthusiasm for risk-adjusting discount rates Our study focuses on large public companies, so it is not
GHSHQGV RQ WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH GDWD DYDLODEOH 7H[W DXWKRUV
OLYH LQ D ODUJHO\ GDWDIUHH ZRUOG DQG WKXV KDYH QR TXDOPV 17
%DQ]DQG5HQJDQXP¿UVWLGHQWL¿HGWKDW¿UPVZLWKVPDOOHU
recommending risk adjustments whenever appropriate. market capitalization had earned higher average returns than stocks
Financial advisors are a bit more constrained. They regularly generally and higher than those predicted even if one adjusts for risk using
the CAPM. Fama and French (1992) identify size as a critical factor in
confront real-world data, but their mission is often to value H[SODLQLQJGLIIHUHQFHVLQUHWXUQV3UDWWDQG*UDERZVNLGLVFXVVVL]H
companies or divisions where extensive market information adjustments and the use of Ibbotson data on size groupings.
30 JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE – NO. 1, 2013
When asked whether they adjusted discount rates for project risk, companies provided a wide range of responses.
“Yes, but [the process] is fairly ad hoc. There’s not a formal number.”
“We don’t risk adjust, [but] we make sure we’re on target by using sensitivity analysis and checking key assumptions.”
“For new deals, we add 20% to the cost of capital.”
“Yes, we make adjustments for different countries.”
“We make subjective adjustments [to our discount rate] for new technologies or products or customers, all of which carry more uncertainty.”
“We use a hurdle rate that is intentionally higher than our WACC. Recent WACC has been 9.64% and the hurdle rate is 15%, and then we
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“[We re-estimate] annually unless a fundamental event that is a game changer occurs, such as the banking crisis in 2008.”
“[We re-estimate] once a year around May since this is right before impairment testing.”
³:HUHHVWLPDWHWZLFHD\HDUDQGIRUVSHFLDOHYHQWVVXFKDVDPDMRUDFTXLVLWLRQ´
“We calculate the hurdle rate each year. We try to avoid any changes less than plus or minus 25 basis points.”
³)RUPDOO\ZHUHHVWLPDWHRXUFRVWRIFDSLWDOHYHU\TXDUWHUEXWJHQHUDOO\ZHKDYHXVHGIRUDORQJWLPHZKLFKVHHPVWRKDYHEHHQ
successful so far.”
Table XI. Judgments Related to Financial Market Conditions
Some of our best practice companies and advisors noted that their choice of a risk-free rate attempted to remove any unusual conditions
they saw in current market yields. We asked "What do you use for a risk-free rate?" and heard the following:
\HDU86JRYHUQPHQWERQGV,ILWVHHPVWREHXQXVXDOO\KLJKRUORZZHPD\XVHDWUDLOLQJDYHUDJHRURWKHUPRGL¿HGQXPEHU´
³8VHD¿YH\HDUUROOLQJDYHUDJHLQRUGHUWRVPRRWKRXWYRODWLOLW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFXUUHQWUHFHQWPDUNHWWUHQGV´
“Historically had used the spot rate yield to maturity on 10-year government bonds, but more recently have changed to thinking about
factors driving government interest rates, so we have moved away from the spot rate and toward the average yield over last 10 years.”
to rely on cruder capital cost estimates and cope with risk Others pointed to the low interest rate environment
differences by other means. resulting from Federal Reserve policies to stimulate the US
economy. Combining low interest rates and typical historical
VI. Recent Institutional and Market risk premiums created capital cost estimates that some
Developments practitioners viewed as “too low.” One company was so
distrustful of market signals that it placed an arbitrary eight
As discussed in the prior section, our interviews reveal SHUFHQWÀRRUXQGHUDQ\FRVWRIFDSLWDOHVWLPDWHQRWLQJWKDW
that the practice of cost of capital estimation is shaped “since 2008, as rates have decreased so drastically, we don’t
by forces that go beyond considerations found in usual feel that [the estimate] represents a long-term cost of capital.
academic treatments of the topic. A feature that was more Now we don’t report anything below 8% as a minimum [cost
SURQRXQFHGWKDQLQRXUSULRUVWXG\LVWKHLQÀXHQFHRIDZLGH of capital].”
array of stakeholders. For instance, a number of companies Among the minority who did revise their estimation
voiced that any change in estimation methods would raise procedures to cope with these market forces, one change was
UHG ÀDJV ZLWK DXGLWRUV ORRNLQJ IRU SURFHVV FRQVLVWHQF\ LQ to put more reliance on historical numbers when estimating
key items such as impairment estimates. Some advisors interest rates as indicated in Table XI. This is in sharp contrast
mentioned similar concerns, citing their work in venues WRERWK¿QDQFHWKHRU\DQGZKDWZHIRXQGLQRXUSULRUVWXG\
where consistency and precedent were major considerations Such rejection of spot rates in favor of historical averages
(e.g. fairness opinions, legal settings). Moreover, some or arbitrary numbers is inconsistent with the academic view
companies noted that they “outsourced” substantial parts of WKDWKLVWRULFDOGDWDGRQRWDFFXUDWHO\UHÀHFWFXUUHQWDWWLWXGHV
their estimation to advisors or data providers. These items in competitive markets. The academic challenge today is to
serve as a reminder that the art of cost of capital estimation better articulate the extent to which the superiority of spot
and its use are part of a larger process of management—not rates still applies when markets are highly volatile and when
VLPSO\DQDSSOLFDWLRQRI¿QDQFHWKHRU\ governments are aggressively attempting to lower rates
7KH ¿QDQFLDO upheaval in 2008-2009 provided a natural WKURXJKVXFKLQLWLDWLYHVDVTXDQWLWDWLYHHDVLQJ
test of respondents’ commitment to existing cost of Another change in estimation methods since our earlier
capital estimation methodologies and applications. When VWXG\LVUHÀHFWHGLQWKHIDFWWKDWPRUHFRPSDQLHVDUHXVLQJ
confronted with a major external shock, did companies make forward-looking risk premiums as we reported earlier and
wholesale changes or did they keep to existing practices? illustrated in Table VII. Since the forward-looking premiums
:KHQZHDVNHGFRPSDQLHVDQGDGYLVRUVLI¿QDQFLDOPDUNHW cited by our respondents were higher than historical risk
conditions in 2008-2009 caused them to change the way they premiums, they mitigated or offset to some degree the
estimate and use the cost of capital (Table II, Question 15), impact of low interest rates on estimated capital costs.18
RYHUWKUHH¿IWKVUHSOLHG³1R´,QWKHPDLQWKHQWKHUHZDV
not a wholesale change in methods. That said, a number of 18
3UDWWDQG*UDERZVNL (2010) provide a discussion of estimating forward
respondents noted discomfort with cost of capital estimation looking risk premiums. Harris and Marston (2001, 2013) discuss evidence
in recent years. Some singled out high volatility in markets. that the market risk premium is inversely related to interest rates.
32 JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE – NO. 1, 2013
business judgment. Second, be careful not to throw out the ¿QDQFH SHRSOH FDQQRW SURYLGH D SUHFLVH QXPEHU :KHQ LQ
baby with the bath water. Do not reject the cost of capital and need, even a blunt ax is better than nothing.
DWWHQGDQW DGYDQFHV LQ ¿QDQFLDO PDQDJHPHQW EHFDXVH \RXU
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