FTI Journalism Trends 2019 Final

2019 Trend Report
For Journalism,
Media & Technology
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© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 002

Welcome
It’s been a difficult year for journalism, engaged in bad behavior.” are thousands of incredibly bright, As of the publication date, The
media and technology. talented, conscientious people Future Today Institute’s annual trend
Meanwhile, it appears as though
working hard in our newsrooms, reports have garnered more than 7.5
A sitting United States president has the platforms distributing news
within corporate media, and inside million cumulative views. We’re glad
repeatedly called media “the enemy content are reluctant to address the
tech companies, big and small. I’m to see so many leadership teams
of the people” who publish only “fake problem head-on. Facebook, Twitter
also energized by the incredible all around the world using these
news” to confuse and mislead voters. and Google have each made some
technology on the horizon—it will trends as part of a formal, ongoing
On the same day that more than 350 efforts to confront the spread of
not only help combat the spread of process to reduce risk, harness new
newspapers ran thoughtful editorials misinformation, however in the digital
misinformation, it will offer creative opportunities and drive change within
explaining that journalists are not the realm attention is currency—and we
solutions to funding quality news. their fields.
enemy, that the president repeatedly keep proving the value of political
assaulted the free press on Twitter, vitriol, trolling and salacious content. I’m reminded of something Helen Regardless of what the next news
arguing that “THE FAKE NEWS Keller once said. “Optimism is the cycle brings, always remember that
At the same time, we’ve seen
MEDIA IS THE OPPOSITION PARTY. faith that leads to achievement. the future is not yet written. It really
the closure of even more news
It is very bad for our Great Country…. Nothing can be done without hope is up to you and your organization.
organizations in the past year, from
BUT WE ARE WINNING!” followed and confidence.” I look at the horizon, You have the power to create your
the Village Voice, to a number of
by “There is nothing that I would and at the people working within our preferred future, today.
regional GateHouse newspapers, to
want more for our Country than true newsrooms, and I feel optimistic—but
Interview Magazine. There have been
FREEDOM OF THE PRESS. The fact I know there’s hard work ahead.
layoffs everywhere. Tronc cut the
is that the Press is FREE to write and Sincerely,
Daily News staff in half, for example— That’s the reason we’ve put together
say anything it wants, but much of
and this time around, new digital this industry-specific report. I hope
what it says is FAKE NEWS, pushing
upstarts including Buzzfeed, Gizmodo it will help your organization see
a political agenda or just plain trying
Media Group, the Outline, Vice and opportunity as you plan for the
to hurt people. HONESTY WINS!” A
Upworthy have also been forced to future. Factor these trends into your
week earlier, a stunning Ipsos poll Amy Webb
reorganize. strategic thinking for the coming year,
showed that 43% of Republicans
and adjust your planning, operations Founder
say that the president “should have And yet, I feel hopeful about the
and business models accordingly. The Future Today Institute
the authority to close news outlets year ahead. That’s because there

This is a robust, detailed report with 108 trends
that cover many different themes and areas. The
sprawling nature of this annual report was inten-
tional. That’s because the future of journalism,
media and technology is influenced by myriad
dependencies. You cannot know the future of
your field without looking broadly.
To meaningfully plan for the future, organizations

must listen for signals actively rather than reflex-
ively. It is important to view your field through
different lenses, considering adjacent sources of
disruption. In the coming months, we hope that
you’ll spend time with all  of the analysis in our
2019 Journalism, Media and Technology Industry
Trends Report.

Table of Contents
03 Welcome Letter 26 Real-Time Context in Machine 33 Proprietary, Homegrown 62 Distributed Computing For
Learning AI Languages a Cause
07 Executive Summary
26 Generative Algorithms For 33 AI Chipsets 66 Decentralized Curation
08 Key Takeaways Voice, Sound and Video
34 Marketplaces For AI Algorithms 68 Interfaces
09 Methodology 27 Image Completion
34 More Consolidation in AI 69 Voice Interfaces
10 How To Monitor Trends and 27 AI For Seeing Through Walls
Signals In Your Organization 34 AI For Deep Linking Everywhere 71 Monetizing Chat-Based
27 Predictive Machine Vision Journalism
12 How Your Organization Can 35 Making AI Explain Itself
Take Action On Emerging 27 New Generative Modeling 74 New Video and Audio Story
Trends Techniques 35 Accountability and Trust Formats
13 How To Use Our Report 27 Much Faster Deep Learning 36 China’s AI Boom 76 Teaching and Newsroom
Training
14 Why We Include Scenarios 27 Reinforcement Learning and 37 I-Teams For Algorithms and Data
With Trends Hierarchical RL 77 Adaptive Learning For
38 Computational Journalism
Newsrooms
15 When, Exactly, To Take Action 28 Continuous Learning
39 Computational Photography
On Tech Trends 78 Nanodegrees For Journalists
28 Multitask Learning
40 Computational Journalism
16 Our Trends Aren’t Trendy 79 Publishing and Distribution
28 Adversarial Machine Learning
41 Faceprints
17 The 10 Sources of All 80 Web 3.0
Future Change 29 A Bigger Role For Ambient
43 Voiceprints
Interfaces 82 Proximity News and Information
19 Artificial Intelligence 44 Blockchain Technologies
29 Digital Assistants Become 83 Digital Frailty
22 Natural Language Generation Ubiquitous 53 Tokenomics
85 The Case For Radical
25 Natural Language 30 AI For the Creative Process 55 Tokens For Smart Royalties Transparency
Understanding (NLU) and Freelancers
31 Bots 86 Pop-Up Newsrooms and Limited-
25 Machine Reading 58 Immutable Journalism Edition News Products
Comprehension (MRC) 33 Ongoing Bias In AI
60 Self-Sovereign Identity 87 One-To-Few Publishing
25 Real-Time Machine Learning 33 The AI Cloud

Table of Contents
88 Abusing The Notification Laye 107 Wearables 119 Faster Connectivity With 5G 139 The Right To Eavesdrop/
Be Eavesdropped On
89 Journalism as a Service (JaaS) 109 Smart Glasses 120 The Media Business
139 Anonymity
90 Transparency in Metrics 109 Hearables / Earables 121 Media Consolidation
139 Trolls
91 Real-Time Fact Checking 109 Head Mounted Displays 126 Ad Blockers
140 Authenticity
92 Offline Connections 109 Haptics 129 Policy and Regulation
140 Data Retention
93 Audio Search Engines 109 Thinkables 130 Splinternets
140 Ownership
94 Mixed Reality and Video 110 Embedables 131 Leaking
140 Encryption Management
95 Streamers 110 Smartwatches 133 The First Amendment
in a Digital Age 141 Constant Audio Surveillance
95 Connected TVs 112 Hardware
135 Security and Privacy 141 Leaky Data
96 WebRTC 113 CubeSats
137 Compliance Challenges and 146 About the Authors
96 Streaming Social Video 115 Drone Delivery Unrealistic Budgets
147 About the Future Today Institute
96 360-Degree Video 115 Increasing Patents and Calls 137 Differential Privacy
For New Regulation 148 Disclaimer
98 Holograms 137 Ransomware As A Service
115 Drone Lanes 149 The Signals Are Talking
99 Virtual Reality 137 Hacktivism On The Rise
116 Sense And Avoid Technology 150 Companies, Organizations,
101 Augmented Reality 138 Targeted Attacks on Digital Universities and Government
116 Microdrones and Drones Used Assistants Agencies Mentioned In Our
103 AR Face Filters to Protect In Dangerous/ Hard-To-Reach 2019 Journalism, Media and
Individual’s identity Areas 138 Strange Computer Glitches Will Technology Industry Trends
Keep Happening Report.
103 AR as a Tool to Enhance Print 116 Drone Swarms
138 Proliferation of Darknets, Aided 155 Contact Information
104 Mixed Reality Arcades 117 Searching The Internet of By Cryptocurrencies
Physical Things
106 VR For Marketing
139 New Open Source App
118 Intelligent Cameras Vulnerabilities

Executive Summary
This is the second annual edition of

FTI’s 2019 Journalism, Media and
Industry Trends Report. It follows
the same approach as our popular
FTI Annual Trend Report, now in its
11th year. Combined, these reports
have garnered more than 7.5 million
cumulative views.

Key Takeaways
2018 marks the beginning of the end enough development, adoption and million of its citizens to gain so much
of traditional smartphones. consolidation that it warrants its own, economic status and power within the
full section. There are numerous op- next twenty years—we’ve never seen
During the next decade, we will start
portunities for media and journalism socioeconomic mobility on that scale
to transition to the next era of com-
organizations. For that reason, we’ve before. No other country is currently
puting and connected devices, which
included an explainer, a list of compa- building sweeping alliances that range
we will wear and will command using
nies to watch, and a cross-indexed list from Africa to Latin America and
our voices, gesture and touch. The
of trends to compliment blockchain Eastern Europe. No other country’s
transition from smartphones to smart
technology. We’ve also included de- government is racing towards the
wearables and invisible interfaces—
tailed scenarios in this section. future with as much force and veloc-
earbuds that have biometric sensors
ity as China, and this could signal big
and speakers; rings and bracelets
Artificial Intelligence is not a tech shifts in the balance of geopolitical
that sense motion; smart glasses that
trend—it is the third era of computing. power in the years ahead. This is
record and display information—will
especially important as China’s Baidu,
forever change how we experience And yet there is a tremendous
Alibaba and Tencent prepare to take
the physical world. This doesn’t amount of misplaced optimism and
on Google, Amazon and Facebook.
necessarily signal a post-screen ex- fear about what, exactly, AI can and
istence. We anticipate foldable and cannot do. You will see the AI eco-
scrollable screens for portable, lon- Mixed Reality is entering the main-
system represented in many of the
ger-form reading and writing. It’s diffi- stream.
trends in this report, and it is vitally
cult to overstate the dramatic effect important that all decision-makers The mixed reality ecosystem has
our transition away from traditional and teams familiarize themselves with grown enough that we now see con-
mobile phones will have on journal- current and emerging AI trends. crete opportunities on the horizon for
ism, entertainment media, and related media organizations. From immersive
technologies. We need to pay closer attention to video to wearable technology, news
China. and entertainment media organiza-
Blockchain emerged as a significant tions should begin mapping their
The Chinese government is investing
driver of change in 2019 and beyond. strategy for new kinds of devices and
hundreds of billions of dollars into
platforms.
The blockchain ecosystem is still artificial intelligence. No other coun-
maturing, however we’ve now seen try on earth has the potential for 100

Methodology The Future Today Institute’s forecasting model uses quantitative and
qualitative data to identify weak signals and map their trajectories
The Future Today Institute Forecasting into tech trends. Our six steps alternate between broad and narrow
Methodology’s Six-Step Funnel scopes, which include: identifying weak signals at the fringe, spotting
patterns, interrogating trend candidates, calculating a trend’s
velocity, writing scenarios and finally, pressure-testing strategies and
recommendations.
01
Make observations and harness
Listen for weak signals at the fringe information from the fringes of
society or a particular research area.
02
Uncover hidden patterns by
categorizing information from the
Use CIPHER to see patterns
fringe: contradictions, infections,
practices, hacks, extremes, rarities.
03
Ask the right questions to determine

Ask the right questions whether a pattern is really a trend.
04
Ensure that the timing is right for the
Calculate the ETA trend and for your organization.
05
Scenarios inform the strategy you will
Write scenarios create to take the necessary action
on a trend.
06
Are your scenarios comprehensive
Pressure-test enough? Is your level of confidence
the future justified? Is the strategy you’re taking
the right one for the future?
Answers What is the future of X?

How To Monitor Trends and Signals In Your Organization
Every organization should continuously monitor weak

signals, track emerging trends and develop strategy for
the future. However there are different approaches to
that work, depending on the answers or information your
organization is seeking.
Begin by asking two important questions:
1. Does your organization need specific, tactical answers to a question with

clear parameters—or are you developing strategic insights?
Examples: What might subscription models and packages look like in the
near-future? (tactical)
How will people get content using new forms of consumer technology in the
near-future? (strategic insights)
2. Have you already defined general themes and a list of specific topics for
your research?
Each research mode requires a different approach:

How To Monitor Trends and Signals In Your Organization cont.
Foresight Mode information that are far afield of your

Formulate a specific question. Map usual work. Practice active reading,
The Four Futures: What mode are you in right now? your immediate, adjacent and theo- taking notes and sketching connec-
retical stakeholders. Develop a weak tions.
Do you need specific, tactical answers to a question with clear
signals map using the 10 Drivers of
parameters—or are you developing strategic insights? Leading Questions 
Modern Change along with the list
of themes and ideas you’ve already When you know the topics you want
made. Begin to look for patterns. to research to surface new signals, but
Need Tactical Answers Developing Strategic Insights you don’t necessary need to answer a
Have you already defined general themes/ topics for your research?
Discovery Mode specific question, ask and answer the

Formulate a specific question. Devel- following questions as you fill in your
Foresight Mode Education Mode
op an initial, general list of topics us- weak signals map.
Writing my strategic Staying on top of specific ing the 10 Drivers of Modern Change.
1. Who’s working directly in this
plan/ developing trends within my industry Create a list of secondary drivers
[node] space? Include those who are
YES
specific actions and adjacent to my industry specific to your question and industry.
Determine a broad list of key stake- already familiar to our organization,
holders. Ask the Leading Questions those who are adjacently related, and
(see below). Create a weak signals those who are theoretical (think very
map as you go. broadly to include all kinds of differ-
ent operators).
Education Mode
Using the 10 Drivers of Modern 2. Who’s been funding/ encouraging
Change along with the list of themes experimentation?
Discovery Mode Speculation Mode and ideas you’ve already made, focus
your attention on the adjacent and 3. Which populations will be directly
Pure research — looking Getting inspiration, learning theoretical stakeholders as well as affected by advancements in 5/10/15
for ideas, opportunities, from other fields, thinking adjacent industries and fields. Use years?
NO
possible disruption about the farther-future the Leading Questions to guide your
research. 4. What are our addressable markets
in 5/10/15 years?
Speculation Mode
Engage in speculative research across 5. Who would be incentivized to work
many different topics. Find sources of against advancement in general?

How Your Organization Can Take Action On Emerging Trends
Our 2019 Trend Report reveals the Explaining why these trends matter. Think about the trends in this report and ask yourself the following questions:
strategic opportunities and risk
Rather than simply offering an 1. How might this trend impact journalism, media and technology and all
confronting your organization in the
overview of the trends that will of its parts?
near future.
matter, this report takes the
This report can help prepare your additional step of explaining why and 2. What are the next-order implications of this trend on our industry?
organization for the years ahead and how these trends will impact your
better position you to see disruption 3. Does this trend signal greater disruption to our traditional business
organization. In some cases, we have
before it fully erupts. We encourage practices and revenue models?
also included plausible scenarios, to
you to use our report as a tool to help you and your team envision the
4. Does this trend indicate a future disruption to established roles and
identify change and to learn how potential outcomes of these trends
responsibilities within our organization? If so, how can we reverse-engineer
new technologies might impact during the next 12-24 months.
that disruption and deal with it in the present day?
your organization in the near-future.
The Report is also a good source Relating these trends back to your
5. How are organizations in adjacent industries addressing this trend?
of potential new collaborators and organization.
What insights can we learn?
partners. Most importantly, use our Our 2019 Journalism, Media,
report as a jumping off point for and Technology Trends Report 6. How are our known and theoretical competitors acting on this trend
deeper strategic planning. is a practical resource for your (or failing to do so?)
organization. It should influence your
strategic thinking throughout the 7. How will this trend influence the wants, needs and expectations of
year. our customers?
8. How does this trend inspire me to think about the future of journalism,
media and technology and my role within the ecosystem?
9. How does this trend inspire my team/ organization?
10. How does this trend help me/ my team/ my organization think about
innovation?

How To Use Our Report 05 06
Each trend offers six important pieces of information for your organization.
The Future Today Institute’s 11th annual Tech Trends Report prepares staff,
managers, executives, funders and startups for the year ahead, so that they
are better positioned to see technological disruption before it fully erupts. 01
03
We encourage you to use our report as a tool to identify change and to learn
04
how new technologies might impact your organization in the near-future.
The Report is also a good source of potential new collaborators and partners.
02
Most importantly, use our report as a jumping off point for deeper strategic
planning.
Note: the trends featured in this annual industry report have been curated
specifically for journalism, media and related technology fields.
We recommend using our 2019 Tech Trends Report as part of a formalized

process to evaluate disruptive technologies throughout the year.
01 Key Insight 03 What’s Next 05 Years On The List 06 Action Meter

Short, easy explanation of this What this trend means for you We’ve noted how many years An easy-to-read graphic
trend so that you can internalize and your organization in the FTI has been tracking the trend indicating where the trend is
it and discuss with your coming year. in our annual Tech Trends along its trajectory.
colleagues. Report, which began publication It tells you whether the trend
04 Watchlist 11 years ago. This measurement needs monitoring, should inform
02 Examples is an indication of how the trend your strategy, or requires action.
These are the organizations
is progressing.
Real-world use cases, some of and stakeholders most deeply
which will sound familiar. involved in this trend.

Why We Include Scenarios With Trends
Narratives help illuminate our possible futures.
In this report, you will find a variety of scenarios that fit four different emotive and the aftermath of nuclear war. It was such a successful exercise that their
framings: optimistic, pragmatic, pessimistic and catastrophic. Some are set in approaches were adopted by other governments and companies around the
the very near future, while others imagine the world after 2029. world. The Royal Dutch Shell company popularized scenario planning, when it
revealed that scenarios had led managers to anticipate the global energy crisis
The Future Today Institute’s methodology for modeling potential business, (1973 and 1979) and the collapse of the market in 1986 and to mitigate risk in
policy and societal impacts of technology and science involves surfacing advance of their competition.1 Scenarios are such a powerful tool that Shell still,
emerging trends, identifying commonalities and connections between them, 45 years later, employs a large, dedicated team researching and writing them.
mapping their trajectories over time, describing plausible outcomes, and
ultimately building strategy to achieve desired outcomes. The first half of the
methodology explains the “what,” while the second half describes the “what
if.” That second half, more formally, is called “scenario planning” and develops
scenarios about the future using a wide variety of data across numerous
sources: statistics, patent filings, academic and archival research, policy
briefings, conference papers, structured interviews with lots of people, and
even critical design and speculative fiction.
Scenario planning originated at the start of the Cold War, in the 1950s. Herman
Kahn, a futurist at the RAND Corporation, was given the job of researching
nuclear warfare, and he knew that raw data alone wouldn’t provide enough
context for military leaders. So instead, he created something new, which
he called “scenarios.” They would fill in the descriptive detail and narration
needed to help those in charge with creating military strategy understand
the plausible outcomes—what could happen, if a certain set of actions were
taken. Simultaneously in France, the futurists Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston
Berger developed and used scenarios to describe preferred outcomes—what
should happen, given the current circumstances. Their work forced the military
and our elected leaders into, as Kahn put it, “thinking about the unthinkable”
1
https://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220?gko=0d07f

When, Exactly, To Take Action On Tech Trends
We encourage you to use our Tech Trends Report High

as the basis for strategic meetings — as long as you Learning Stage Listening For Signals
commit to taking incremental action right away. As we research and test this new At The Horizon
Many organizations prefer to take a “wait and see” technology, what can we learn and Emerging but bona-fide technology and
approach after seeing new research, and that’s a apply to our organization? What must trends; uncertain trajectory and timeline;
mistake. Your team must take some action, even we do now to keep ahead of the trend? ecosystem forming; market forming.
if it’s small, to build momentum so that you may
confront the future on your own terms.
Sample Action Sample Action
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND

We recognize how difficult it is to take risks during Devote an all-hands day to investigating Assign one member of your team to be
a time of economic uncertainty. However the future this trend. Invite people from all the resident expert on the tech trend.
departments within your organization to Have them send notes to the rest of the
of journalism, media and technology requires
“Can we do it”
participate. Bring in outsiders for added team on a regular basis.
courageous leadership right now.
expertise.
For that reason, the Future Today Institute created

a simple framework to help you continually monitor
Capabilities Building Stage Developing Ideas Stage
technology as it moves from the fringe to the
How can we work to better understand the How can we develop a new product or
mainstream. Focus on taking incremental action
emerging tech and develop the expertise service that leverages the technology,
often as you think more exponentially. Incremental even as the market is still evolving?
to act? How do our key stakeholders and
actions will position your organization to make constituents see this trend, and what are How can we assess possible risk and
smarter strategic decisions in advance, rather than their expectations of us? implications in a meaningful way?
trying to play catch-up after a disastrous event.
This is our framework, and we encourage your Sample Action Sample Action
organization to use it as you read through our Develop and ship a survey to assess how Facilitate a scenarios workshop, with
report. well positioned your current team is to a goal of identifying probable and
address this trend. Determine whether plausible outcomes.
training is necessary.
Low
Low UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND IN THE MARKET High
“Does the market want it”

Our Trends Aren’t Trendy
Before the description of each trend, you’ll see how many years it has been on The Four Laws of Trends
our list. The trends that futurists research are never shiny, flashes in the pan. As
All trends share a set of four conspicuous, universal features.
you’ll see, the trends in our report are not trendy. (At least, not intentionally.)
Instead, they emerge from weak signals at the fringe and reveal changes afoot.
Real trends tend to take shape over many years. We use trends to help us • Trends are the convergence of weak signals from the fringe.
see potential opportunities, challenges and plausible scenarios for next-order
impacts.
• Trends are driven by basic human needs.
A trend is a new manifestation of

• Trends evolve as they emerge.
sustained change within an industry
sector, society, or human behavior. • Trends are timely, but they persist.
Fundamentally, a trend leverages our basic human needs and desires in a At any moment, there are thousands of small shifts in technology—
meaningful way, and it aligns human nature with breakthrough technologies developments on the fringes of science and society—that will impact
and inventions. journalism, media and technology itself in the future.

To understand the future of one thing, you must widen your aperture.
The 10 Sources of Otherwise, you’re essentially looking at the world through a pinhole.
All Future Change Historically, the sources of all future change tend to come from the 10 primary
sources you see below. When FTI researches tech trends, we do so using the
prism of these sources. Technology is not listed because it underpins every
facet of our lives.
01 02 03 04 05
WEALTH
DISTRIBUTION EDUCATION GOVERNMENT POLITICS
JOURNALISM
MEDIA
PUBLIC HEALTH DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT (our individual and collective use
of social networks, chat services,
digital video channels, photo
sharing services and so on)
06 07 08 09 10

2019 Trend Report
For Journalism,
Media & Technology
Artificial Intelligence
001 Natural Language 008 AI For Seeing 016 A Bigger Role For 024 Marketplaces For
Generation Through Walls Ambient Interfaces AI Algorithms
002 Natural Language 009 Predictive Machine 017 Digital Assistants 025 More Consolidation
Understanding (NLU) Vision Become Ubiquitous in AI
003 Machine Reading 010 New Generative 018 AI For the Creative 026 AI For Deep Linking
Comprehension Modeling Techniques Process Everywhere
(MRC)
011 Much Faster Deep 019 Bots 027 Making AI Explain
004 Real-Time Machine Learning Itself
Learning 020 Ongoing Bias In AI
012 Reinforcement 028 Accountability
005 Real-Time Context Learning and 021 The AI Cloud and Trust
in Machine Learning Hierarchical RL
022 Proprietary, 029 China’s AI Boom
006 Generative Algorithms 013 Continuous Learning Homegrown AI
For Voice, Sound and Languages 030 I-Teams For
Video 014 Multitask Learning Algorithms
023 AI Chipsets and Data
007 Image Completion 015 Adversarial Machine
Learning
HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
TRENDS 001 - 030 • TENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Artificial Intelligence:
KEEP
The Third Era of Computing REVISIT
LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH
LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
Key Insight resents many things, even as the field

continues to grow. What passed as
There are nine big
Many facets of artificial intelligence
(AI) have made our list since we first
AI in the 1950s—a calculator capable tech companies—
of long division—hardly seems like an
started publishing this report more
advanced piece of technology today. six American, and
than a decade ago. AI itself isn’t the
trend—it is too broad and important
This is what’s known as the “odd three Chinese—that
paradox”—as soon as new techniques
to monitor without distinguishing
between signals. For that reason, we
are invented and move into the main- are overwhelmingly
have identified different themes with-
stream, they become invisible to us.
We no longer think of that technolo-
responsible for the
in AI that you should be following.
“We are now solving problems with
gy as AI. future of artificial
machine learning and artificial intel-
What You Need To Know
In its most basic form, artificial
intelligence is a system that makes
intelligence.
ligence that were … in the realm of
science fiction for the last several About AI autonomous decisions. The tasks AI They are Google,
performs duplicate or mimic acts of
decades. And natural language under-
standing, machine vision problems, it
The roots of modern artificial intel-
ligence extend back hundreds of human intelligence, like recognizing Amazon, Microsoft,
really is an amazing renaissance.” years, long before the Big Nine were sounds and objects, solving prob- Apple, IBM and
– Jeff Bezos building AI agents with names like lems, understanding language, and
Siri, Alexa and Tiān Māo. Throughout using strategy to meet goals. Some Facebook in the
that time, there has been no singu- AI systems are enormous, like per-
forming millions of computations
U.S., and Baidu,
lar definition for AI, like there is for
other technologies. When it comes quickly—while others are narrow and Alibaba and
intended for a single task, like catch-
to AI, describing it concretely isn’t
as easy, and that’s because AI rep- ing foul language in emails. Tencent in China.

TRENDS 001 - 030 • TENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
Artificial Intelligence cont. will accomplish a specific task. How

you want the computer to get from
software, which computers will soon
start to do themselves.
start to finish—essentially, a set of
rules—is the “algorithm.”
Overcoming Misplaced
The Big Nine There Are Different A deep neural network is one that Optimism and Fear
has many hidden layers. There’s no
There are nine big tech companies— Categories Of AI When it comes to AI, many organiza-
set number of layers required to
six American, and three Chinese— There are two kinds of AI—weak (or tions and their leaders have devel-
make a network “deep.” Deep neural
that are overwhelmingly responsible “narrow”) and strong (or “general”). oped a misplaced sense of optimism
networks tend to work better and are
for the future of artificial intelligence. The anti-lock breaks in your car, the or fear. (And sometimes a combina-
more powerful than traditional neural
They are Google, Amazon, Micro- spam filter and autocomplete function of both.)
networks (which can be recurrent or
soft, Apple, IBM and Facebook in tions in your email, and the recom- feedforward). It seems like not a day goes by with-
the U.S., and Baidu, Alibaba and mendations that Amazon and Spotify out a new headline promising that
Tencent in China. Just nine compa- make are all examples of artificial AI will cure all that ails us, or that it
nies are primarily responsible for the narrow intelligence. Maeve and Do-
AI, Machine Learning and
will take our jobs, or that it just might
overwhelming majority of research, lores in Westworld, the Samantha op- Deep Learning kill us all. The real future of AI does
funding, government involvement erating system in Her, and the H.A.L. Machine learning programs run on promise excitement, but probably not
and consumer-grade applications. supercomputer from 2001: A Space neural networks and analyze data quite how you’ve imagined.
University researchers and labs rely Odyssey are anthropomorphized in order to help computers find new
on these companies for data, tools representations of artificial general things without being explicitly pro-
and funding. So do news organiza- intelligence (AGI)—but actual AGI grammed where to look. Within the
tions—and we all use their products doesn’t necessarily require humanlike field of AI, machine learning is useful
and services. The Big Nine are also appearances or voices. Systems ca- because it can help computers to
responsible for mergers and ac- pable of general decision-making and predict and make real-time decisions
quisitions, funding AI startups, and automation outside of narrow spe- without human intervention.
supporting the next generation of cialties (DeepMind beating a world
developers. Deep learning is a relatively new
champion Go master) is an example
branch of machine learning. Pro-
of early, limited AGI.
grammers use special deep learning
Artificial Intelligence
algorithms alongside a corpus of
Is The Third Era of AI, Neural Networks and data––typically many terabytes of
Computing Deep Neural Networks text, images, videos, speech and
the like. Often, these systems are
The best way to think of AI isn’t as a A neural network is the place where
trained to learn on their own. In
particular tool, software application information is sent and received, and
practical terms, this means that more
or spoken interface. AI represents the a program is the set of meticulous,
and more human processes will be
next era of computing, after the tabu- step-by-step instructions that tell a
automated. Including the writing of
lating era (very early computers) and system precisely what to do so that it
the programmable systems era.

TREND 001 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Natural Language Generation
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Examples NLG To Grow Audience

Natural Language Generation (NLG) Algorithms can rewrite structured Free, easy-to-use reading level con-
has been used by media companies data into a narrative using natural verters have existed for at least five
and marketing firms to generate language generation. Dozens of news years. They are most widely used by
content based on large datasets. NLG and other organizations, including educators. News organizations like
is powerful because it can integrate Bloomberg and the Associated Press, the Washington Post and the Guard-
keywords, improving SEO and per- have been using Automated Insights, ian have partnered with Newsela, an
sonalized customer communication at which mines data and is capable educational startup and reading level
scale. of writing more than 2,000 stories converter, to provide text-sets and
per second using natural language articles for educators.
The technology is still evolving. NLG
Newsela is an educational startup and generation to produce stories about
machines are learning to translate Google’s search results ranking
reading level converter that provides fantasy football, earnings reports and
content into different languages and algorithm is a black box in terms of
text-sets and articles for educators. the like. Narrative Science employs
generate content for different medi- what factors improve page rank. SEO
its NLG system to build narratives out
ums and in different voices or styles. experts have suggested that adjusting
of big data sets and to help non-data
One day, publishers may generate the reading level of the page might
science people make better sense
content in different reading levels to have an affect. John Mueller, Senior
of what’s happening within their
improve search engine ranks or reach Webmaster at Google echoed this
organizations. NLG will have myriad
a wider audience. idea when in March 2018 he tweet-
use cases across professional fields, ed, “Speak in the language of your
assisting lawyers, politicians, doc- audience; present your awesomeness
tors, consultants, financial analysts, in a way they can understand.” It is
marketers and beyond, who will soon also worth noting that in 2010, Google
incorporate our personal information introduced a search filter Reading
as data points for narratives. Level. (It was removed in 2014 with
little explanation.)
TREND 001
NLG has been applied most frequent- What’s Next

Natural Language Generation cont. ly in beats where lots of data is read-
Instead of reading levels, publishers
ily available, like financial services,
might focus instead on reading con-
sports, and weather. Publications such
texts using data to determine how to
as ProPublica and Urbs Media are
serve and customize content based
experimenting with NLG to find sto-
on where the user is. If the user is
ries and insight in public datasets and
reading while walking, an app might
government election coverage.
suggest, “Would you like to listen
In 2016, the Washington Post exper- to this article instead?” In contexts
imented with customized headlines where search matters, NLG technol-
based on user segments. This project, ogy will likely prioritize keywords
dubbed Bandito, could be married and keep reading levels between 3rd
with NLG to provide story head- grade (for stories related to finance,
lines personalized at a group level. sports, business insights) and 8th
NLG could also be integrated with grade (for more nuanced topics like
chatbots to match brand voice and politics).
style. The team at Quartz BotStudio
Another aspect to consider is lan-
has found that “it is clear that users
guage. Not all languages are the same
will gravitate to low-friction ways of
to model. Many NLGs are built on
getting the information and entertain-
English and Chinese. Globally, this will
ment they want.”
impact how information is accessible
to non-English speaking audiences.
Watchlist
Amazon; Google; Washington Post;
Newsela; Rewordify; Readable.io; Urbs
Media; Quartz; ProPublica; Automated
Insights; Bloomberg; Narrative Sci-
ence; Associated Press; the Guardian;
BBC; Baidu; Tencent; Alibaba; Micro-
soft; Facebook; Apple; IBM

BY ELENA GIRALT
SCENARIO
Optimistic Natural Language Generation Pessimistic Scenario—Bias in NLG Reduces

Scenario—New Audience and Revenue Growth Audiences and Depletes Revenue By 2023
By The Year 2023 Given what we know about machine learning techniques and current studies
in the field, it is likely that NLG as an area of research will suffer from strong
Given what we know about the proliferation of voice-enabled devices,
bias in data with most of the training data coming from predominantly Cau-
content-automation and the advancement of NLG technology, there will
casian and English or Asian (specifically Chinese) languages. Not all languag-
be more use cases for personally customized content based on preference,
es model the same so in the US, NLG features will be optimized for English
location, and even reading level.
instead of Spanish or other languages. NLG might not understand different
In a world where customers are brand agnostic, providing content in different dialects and accents or worse, it might conflate accents with lower reading
formats will result in a competitive advantage for content creators. As levels. Globally, this will impact how information is accessible to non-English
customers become more accustomed to web searches using voice, they will speaking audiences.
begin to ask for general content with specific conditions.
“Alexa, please only provide news articles that are less than 2 minutes long.”
“Alexa, I haven’t had my coffee yet, please only give me the headlines.”
In family settings, parents may implement content guidelines for smart

devices in order to control what their children are exposed to.
“Alexa, please only serve news information from these trusted sources: NPR,
Bloomberg, NYT.”
“Alexa, when Alice or Billy ask for news, please only respond with sources
from PBS Kids.”
Imagine a more personalized news experience using NLG, one that’s tailored
for each person. This value add could grow audience and become a new kind
of subscription service in the near future.

TRENDS 001 - 030
on the page, that information comes has always been efficiency, since until
Natural 002 from? If you are an airline mechanic recently systems had to stop, pull
Natural Language and you’re trying to troubleshoot a and parse data. New research into
Language Understanding (NLU) tricky engine problem without further real-time machine learning shows that
delaying a flight, it would be easier it’s possible to use a continual flow of
Generation We are surrounded by unstructured
text in the real world—it exists in our
if you had a computer read all of the transactional data and adjust models
technical documentation for you and in real-time. This signals a big change
cont. social media posts, our blog entries,
on company websites, within city hall
suggest likely fixes. Or, better yet, let
the machines figure out what’s wrong
in how data moves, and in how we
retrieve information. For example,
digital records, and elsewhere. NLU al- on their own, by making all technical real-time machine learning makes it
lows researchers to quantify and learn manuals and documentation avail- possible to translate speech auto-
from all of that text by extracting able to them for reading and analysis. matically, even as multiple languages
concepts, mapping relationships and That’s the promise of MRC. MRC isn’t are spoken. It can be used to improve
analyzing emotion. NLU will augment focused on keywords alone. In the classification and predictions, prom-
the work of professional researchers— future, a trained MRC system could ising more accurate risk calculations.
those working in science and med- be transferred to different domains This could allow content creators to
icine, law and policy, infrastructure, where no human has created labels more closely tailor content for con-
agriculture, transportation, education or even a standard taxonomy. MRC sumers. Rather than using historic
and beyond—allowing them to glean is a necessary step in realizing arti- data alone (Reader #1234 only likes
deeper insights than ever before. ficial general intelligence, but in the sports stories), real-time preferences
near-term it could potentially turn would add context to the recommen-
003 everything from technical manuals to dation (Reader #1234 might want
Machine Reading historical maps to our medical records election news more in the next ten
into easily searchable repositories of days).
Comprehension (MRC) information.
For AI researchers, machine reading
005
comprehension has been a chal-
004 Real-Time Context in
lenging goal, but an important one.
MRC makes it possible for systems to Real-Time Machine Machine Learning
read, infer meaning, and immediately Learning The world is awash with informa-
deliver answers while sifting through Machine learning describes a system tion, misinformation, and superficial
enormous data sets. One practical that uses algorithms to analyze big thinking. IBM’s Project Debater is an
application on the consumer side: if data sets in order to perform a wide example of how context can be used
you perform a search query, wouldn’t array of tasks better than we can. in real-time learning systems. Project
you rather have a system offer you a Over time, the system gets better at Debater can debate humans on com-
precise answer than just a list of URLs those tasks. It learns, even though plex topics. It digests massive texts,
where you can go to hunt down more we might not describe it as “intelli- constructs a well-structured speech
specifics—even showing you where, gent.” One challenge for machines on a given topic, delivers it with clari-

TRENDS 001 - 030
the specter of audio fraud—what

Natural Language Generation cont. ty and purpose, and rebuts its oppo-
nent. Eventually, Project Debater will
happens when computers are able to
spoof our voices and natural sound?
help people reason by providing com-
There have already been a few early
pelling, evidence-based arguments
successes: in 2017, researchers at the
and limiting the influence of emotion,
University of Washington developed
bias, or ambiguity. Debater is just one
a model that convincingly showed
example of emerging systems that are
President Barack Obama giving a
capable of learning in real-time and
speech—that he never actually gave in
using real-world context.
real life.
006
007
Generative Algorithms
Image Completion
For Voice, Sound and
If a computer system has access to
Video enough images—millions and mil-
Researchers at MIT’s CSAIL are study- lions—it can patch and fill in holes in
ing how children learn new words in pictures. There are practical applica-
order to train computers on automat- tions for professional photographers
ic speech recognition. As humans, as well as everyone who wants to take
we are able to master a new concept a better selfie Soon, if the foreground
from just one or two examples; for of a mountain is out of focus, or if
machines, this is a more difficult task your skin has an unsightly blemish,
when it comes to language. Mean- another version can be swapped in
while, researchers are training com- to generate the perfect picture. But
puters to watch videos and predict what are the next-order scenarios
corresponding sounds in our physical and implications? How will we draw
world. For example, what sound is the line between reality and enhance-
generated when a wooden drumstick ment? How much image completion
taps a couch? A pile of leaves? A should be allowed without tacking on
glass windowpane? The focus of this a warning label or disclosure? Online
research is to help systems under- daters, journalists, and marketers
stand how objects interact with each should be asking these questions.
other in the physical realm. But future But so should policymakers. Image
versions of the algorithms could be completion is also a useful tool for
used to automatically produce sound law enforcement and military intelli-
and sound effects for games, videos, gence officers—computers can now
movies and TV shows. It also raises assist them in identifying who or what

TRENDS 001 - 030
human environments—and to interact compute power and the volume

Natural is in the frame. Given the bias we’ve
already seen across machine learning
with us humans by taking cues from of data that’s become available. In
our own body language. It could also practical terms, this means that more
Language algorithms and data sets, image com-
pletion could become part of a future
be used in retail environments, while and more human processes will be
we’re operating machinery, or while automated, including the writing of
debate about privacy and our devices.
Generation we’re in classrooms learning. software, which computers will soon
start to do themselves. DL has been
cont. 008 hampered by the processing power of
010
AI For Seeing Through computer networks. Just a few years
New Generative Modeling ago, it would take a month or longer
Walls
Techniques to train an image recognition model
MIT computer vision scientists have on the ImageNet dataset. Today, with
Autoregressive Quantile Networks
discovered how to use computer more advanced equipment, Facebook
for Generative Modeling (or AIQN for
vision to track data from what they can do the same in under an hour. As
short) sounds complicated but it’s an
call “accidental cameras.” Windows, computers become faster—and as
innovative idea to help improve algo-
mirrors, corners, houseplants and hardware architecture evolves—our
rithms and make them more stable.
other common objects can be used, systems will perform tasks at su-
The implication: this could quicken
along with AI, to track subtle changes per-human speeds.
the pace of advancements in AI—and
in light, shadow, and vibrations. The
that could mean faster opportunities
result? We may soon all have x-ray
vision. This technology could be har-
and innovations within journalism, 012
media and technology.
nessed by reporters for investigative Reinforcement Learning
work. and Hierarchical RL – 12
011
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a
009 Much Faster Deep powerful tool for sorting out deci-
Predictive Machine Vision Learning sion-making problems, and it’s being
Deep Learning (DL) is a relatively new used to train AI systems to achieve
Researchers at MIT’s CSAIL have
branch of machine learning, and it will super-human capabilities. Inside of
trained computers to not only recog-
soon be an invisible part of every or- a computer simulation, a system
nize what’s in a video, but to predict
ganization. Programmers use special tries, fails, learns, experiments and
what humans will do next. Trained
deep learning algorithms alongside a then tries again—in rapid succession,
on YouTube videos and TV shows
corpus of data—typically many tera- altering its future attempts each time.
such as “The Office” and “Desperate
bytes of text, images, videos, speech It’s because of RL that AlphaGo, a
Housewives,” a computer system can
and the like. The system is trained computer developed by DeepMind
now predict whether two people are
to learn on its own. While conceptu- (part of Alphabet) learned how to
likely to hug, kiss, shake hands or slap
ally, deep learning isn’t new, what’s beat the greatest Go players in the
a high five. This research will someday
changed recently is the amount of world. One problem with RL: agents
enable robots to more easily navigate
have difficulty when they don’t have

TRENDS 001 - 030
014 015
Natural enough supervision, or when they’re
objective is to run scenarios for a very Multitask Learning Adversarial Machine
Language long time horizon. Researchers will try
to solve those problems using Hierar-
If you watched the original Karate Kid Learning
movie, you’ll remember Mr. Miyagi In short, an adversarial piece of con-
chical Reinforcement Learning—that
Generation discovers high-level actions and work
promising to teach Daniel karate—and
Daniel getting frustrated with days of
tent—a photo, a video, an audio file—
through learning challenges method- is encoded with a tiny modification,
cont. ically, in order to master new tasks at
painting fences, sanding floors and
“wax on, wax off.” To Daniel, none of
usually one that’s imperceptible to
speeds we humans can’t imagine. This humans. It’s created in order to help
these activities seemed related, and computer scientists adjust machine
is important for non-techies, too: RL
they certainly didn’t appear to help learning models. Hackers use adver-
will improve the “intelligence” in our
him with his stated objective: to learn sarial examples in a machine learning
AI systems, helping cars learn to drive
karate. Of course, it turns out that all system to attack it, causing the model
in unusual conditions and helping
of these chores were indeed connect- to make a mistake. In order for ma-
military drones perform complicated
ed, and Daniel’s repetitive learning chine learning systems to learn, they
maneuvers that have never been at-
is what helped him become a formi- must recognize subtle differences.
tempted before in the physical world.
dable karate champion. Researchers Researchers also use adversarial infor-
are now training systems to learn like mation in order to train systems in
013 Daniel. When developers use Ma- how to recognize misleading informa-
Continuous Learning chine Learning, they are doing so to tion in order to secure it. Adversarial
try and solve for a particular task or information is sort of like an optical
At the moment, deep learning tech-
problem. They supervise the system, illusion and it’s typically imperceptible
niques have helped systems learn to
fine-tuning it and making adjustments to the human eye or ear. It could be
solve complex tasks that more closely
until the models performs as desired. one pixel out of a million that’s the
matches what humans can do—but
But focusing only on a single task wrong color or is misaligned—to you,
those tasks are still specific, such as
often leads to inefficiencies—per- all those pixels together might still
beating a human at a game. And they
haps there’s a better solution to the look like a photo of a rainbow, but to
require a rigid sequence: gather data,
problem than the method developed a machine learning model, that one
determine the goal, deploy an algo-
by the researcher. A new area of out-of-place pixel could render the
rithm. This process requires humans
research—multitask learning—helps image gibberish. When that happens,
and can be time-consuming, especial-
systems learn more like Daniel, ex- an adjustment is made to the system
ly during early phases when super-
ploiting the relationships between and it continues training. Adversarial
vised training is required. Continuous
various, related tasks in order to solve images can be used to knowingly and
Learning (CL) is more about auton-
problems better. purposely trick a machine learning
omous and incremental skill building
and development, and researchers system. If an attacker trains a model,
will continue pushing the limits of using very slightly altered images,
what’s possible in the coming years. the adversarial examples could then

TRENDS 001 - 030
need to do next, sometimes before

Natural be deployed out into other models.
Adversarial examples can be embed-
prioritize those decisions, delegate
them on our behalf, and even to au-
we even know to ask. DAs will be-
come more pervasive in the near-fu-
Language ded—intentionally, or by accident—
into photos, multimedia stories, virtual
tonomously answer for us, depending
on the circumstance. Much of this
ture, as device prices fall (look for en-
try-level speakers that cost less than
reality content and the like. This is invisible decision-making will happen
Generation important to keep in mind, especially without your direct supervision or
$20) and as systems get better at
interacting with us. Millions of smart
as fake news continues to prolifer- input. What makes ambient design so
cont. ate in digital channels. It’s especially tantalizing is that it should require us
speakers are being installed in hotel
rooms throughout China, while in the
perplexing for search engines (Goo- to make fewer and fewer decisions in
West we can expect to see speakers
gle, Bing) and for any service that the near-future. Think of it as a sort
in offices.
automatically tags our photos (law of autocomplete for intention. We will
enforcement databases, Facebook). interact both actively and passively DAs will soon be found outside of
with our DAs, found in our hearables, smart speakers. Watch for new collab-
thermostats, cars and pockets. They orations between device manufactur-
016
will listen and observe in the back- ers and DA platforms—you’ll speak to
A Bigger Role For ground, sometimes asking questions— Alexa in your car and on your morn-
Ambient Interfaces other times offering up text, audio or ing jog, while Google will soon be
haptic notifications as needed, and accessible during work meetings and
Also known as “zero-UIs,” our mod-
those will be decided by algorithm. at your desk. You’ll also start to notice
ern interfaces are becoming more
The real promise of ambient inter- DAs hidden throughout other con-
and more like ambient music—able
faces is explained by Metcalfe’s Law, nected devices, such as your home
to do more for us with fewer direct
which says that the value of a net- thermostat, your refrigerator and your
actions, yet still able to captivate our
work is the square of the total number phone. Researchers at MIT, Stanford,
attention. Digital Assistants figu-
Alibaba Headquarters, Hangzhou, of people using it. As more people and the University of Texas at Austin
ratively and literally automatically
China: The main building of the become part of ambient networks of are building infrastructure so that
deliver you the information you need
Alibaba group headquarters. information, the more use cases we’ll our devices will be able to listen and
to know, just as you need to know it.
see in the future. watch: They’ll know the places we
Rather than relying on a single input
go, the people we interact with, our
screen, or even a series of screens,
habits, our tastes and preferences,
we’ll instead interact with computers 017
and more. Then they’ll use this data to
with less friction. In our modern age
Digital Assistants anticipate our needs. Marketers, credit
of information, the average adult now
makes more than 20,000 decisions Become Ubiquitous card companies, banks, local gov-
ernment agencies (police, highway
a day—some big, like whether or not Digital Assistants (DAs)—like Aliba-
administration), political campaigns
to invest in the stock market, and ba’s Tiān Māo and Amazon’s Alexa—
and many others can harness DAs
some small, like whether to glance at use semantic and natural language
to both surface and deliver critical
your mobile phone when you see the processing, along with our data, in
information.
screen light up. New DAs promise to order to anticipate what we want or

TREND 018 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
AI For the Creative Process
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next from artificial narrow intelligence to

artificial general intelligence.
Can AI learn to be creative? In the “Break Free” is a single from the
past few years, we’ve already seen album IAMAI, which was written, pro-
Watchlist
examples of AI systems creating duced and performed using artificial
something from scratch—music, dress intelligence. Sony’s Flow Machine Alphabet; Rutgers University; Face-
designs, bicycles, and more. worked along a human lyricist and book; College of Charleston; Sony;
together, they created a popular song. IBM; Amazon; Baidu; Tencent; Alibaba.
Examples YouTuber Taryn Southern used the
Amper AI system to create her latest
Last year, researchers from Rutgers
songs. Aiva AI is a composer intend-
University, College of Charleston, and
“Break Free” is a song composed by ed to help film directors, advertising
Facebook’s AI Research Lab created
AI and performed by Taryn Southern. agencies and game studios create
an AI system whose purpose was to
original scores for their projects. Ma-
make art. The result was so convinc-
genta, a project from Google Brain, is
ing that human art critics couldn’t
being used to create art and music—
distinguish between the AI-generated
anyone can use its NSynth tool to
works and those made by humans.
generate new music. AI being used
That research builds on an earlier
in creative fields has some worried,
study (from Rutgers and Facebook’s
especially since some of the robo-cre-
AI Lab) that trained an algorithm to
ated works seem to appeal to humans
identify a work’s artist, genre and
as much as flesh-and-blood artists.
style of art.
Creative uses for AI is an important
step in advancing the entire body of
work and research, as we transition

TREND 019 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Bots
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight TexasTribune, Quartz, Mic, Los An- offered at institutions such as the
geles Times and elsewhere. Imagine University of Texas to help students
The term “bot” has become part of
you’re a media outlet and you want and professionals learn how to design
our mainstream vocabulary. Bots at
to stay updated and report on earth- bots that suit specific needs. Media
the most basic level are software
quakes that happen across the world. organizations will continue to devel-
applications designed to automate
You can manually sign up for alerts op and refine bots to automate news
a specified task. In the context of
from the United States Geological related tasks freeing up time to allow
journalism, bots can be divided into
Survey (USGS), receive an alert, and individuals to devote time to more
two main categories: news bots and
have someone write a blurb about the important tasks.
productivity bots. News bots can help
earthquake…or you can design a bot. Japanese media startup JX Press
aggregate and automatically alert a
Using easy to program software, an Corp developed a tool that leverages
Chatbots are being used by news- user about a specified event, whereas
earthquake tracking bot could take social media and artificial intelligence
rooms worldwide. productivity bots are tools journal-
notifications from the USGS and cre- to scour posts across different plat-
ism organizations should be using to
ate or publish a blurb about the most forms and then write news reports.
help automate and streamline their
recent earthquake. The automation Look for more companies to harness
day to day operations. The major risk
allows news to go out in a timelier the combination of bots and AI to
associated with news bots is that they
manner and allows individuals to use create new kinds of content. With
are only as reliable as the program-
their time on more difficult tasks. elections taking place around the
ming behind it. People or groups with
nefarious interests can use bots to world, misinformation bots will con-
What’s Next tinue to play a big role on Facebook,
disseminate erroneous information.
Bots will continue to play an im- Twitter and Instagram. We expect
Examples portant role in journalism and other to see more companies touting tech
content-rich fields. On the creator based solutions to address the issue.
Many newsrooms have experimented
level, seminars and courses are being
with chatbots, including BuzzFeed,

TREND 019
Will Your Bot Be Biased?

Bots cont. We are training bots in our own image. When developing your content
and messaging bots, we recommend that you rate your work before
deployment. Answer these questions to determine, in advance, wheth-
Watchlist er or not you’ve accidentally encoded bias into your system.
NewsDigest; Facebook; Google;
Jigsaw; Twitter; Instagram; Chatfuel;
Pandorabots; Twilio; Amazon; iFlytek; • What are the values of your organi- its answers are coming from? Are
Slack; WeChat; Tencent; Baidu; Weibo; zation? (If you don’t have them in you able to include any evidence of
Alibaba; IBM; Alphabet; Microsoft; writing, you have some work to do your reporting, quotes and data?
Snapchat; Coral Project. before building your bot.)
• Is your bot intuitive and easy to use,
• How will you make sure that your either on a designated platform or
bot reflects the values of your or- across platforms?
ganization?
• Did you assign your bot a tradition-
• What if your bot interacts with al gender, ethnic or racial identity?
someone (or another bot) whose If so, does it reference any stereo-
values run counter to yours and types?
your organization’s?
• Does your bot respond to gendered
• Is your bot’s purpose explicit? Will or sexist remarks? Does it respond
people interacting with your bot to racial epithets or religious slurs?
clearly understand what its pur- If it does respond, are the respons-
pose is after the first few interac- es appropriate to people of the
tions? group targeted?
• Does the corpus (the initial, base • Even if your bot is designed for
set of questions and answers) another purpose, can you still use
you’ve created reflect only one it to help people learn about their
gender, race or ethnicity? Or only own biases or broaden their world-
one side of a story? If so, was that views?
intentional?
• How well do you know the training

data you’re using? If you didn’t
create it, are you certain it’s free of
bias?
• Does your bot clearly explain where

TRENDS 001 - 030
Artificial 020 cussions. You, or someone you know,

could wind up on the wrong side of
022
Ongoing Bias In AI Proprietary, Homegrown
Intelligence Every single day, you are creating
the algorithm and discover you’re
ineligible for a loan, or a particular AI Languages
unimaginable amounts of data, both medication, or the ability to rent an
cont. actively (uploading and tagging apartment, for reasons which aren’t
As we enter the third era of com-
puting, the largest companies are
photos on Facebook) and passively transparent or easy to understand. starting to compete for both mar-
(searching online for medical symp- ketshare and mindshare. Companies
toms, driving to work). That data is
021 such as Microsoft, IBM, Amazon and
mined and used, often without your Alphabet are releasing software
direct knowledge or understanding, The AI Cloud
packages for developers—as well as
by algorithms. It is used to create ad- In the past year, the corporate leaders unique programming languages for
vertising, to help potential employers of the AI ecosystem have been racing AI applications. Uber released its own
predict our behaviors, to determine to capture AI cloudshare—and to be- probabilistic programming language,
our mortgage rates and even to help come the trusted provider of AI on re- Pyro, which it wrote in Python. It’s a
law enforcement predict whether or mote servers. Amazon Web Services, move that signals likely fragmentation
not we’re likely to commit a crime. Microsoft’s Azure, IBM and Alphabet in the future of the AI ecosystem, not
Researchers at a number of universi- are all rolling out new offerings and unlike our OSX vs Android, and earlier
ties—including the University of Mary- packages for developers, hoping to Mac vs PC camps. News organizations
land, Columbia University, Carnegie make it easier and more affordable for should prepare now for fragmenta-
Mellon, MIT, Princeton, University a wide swath of AI startups to launch tion, offering training for developers
of California-Berkeley, International their ideas into the marketplace. and helping to develop workforce.
Computer Science Institute, among This isn’t just about hosting. Each
others—have started to discover unin- company now offers off-the-shelf AI
tended, but explicit bias in algorithms. software. Amazon’s SageMaker lets
023
Part of the problem has to do with developers train their own neural nets, AI Chipsets
the building blocks of AI: computers while Rekognition detects and tracks The standard CPUs found in our
are trained using a limited initial set people, activities and objects in video. desktops, laptops, tablets and mobile
of data, and the training programs are AWS Lambda lets you run code with- phones have certainly gotten power-
built by humans. Often, the training out provisioning or managing servers. ful—but they’re not really designed
sets reveal unacknowledged bias Microsoft’s Azure platform includes to meet the demands of machine
hidden within us. As our computer both a machine learning studio, to learning. The problem with our
systems become more adapt at mak- help developers build and deploy current CPUs is that they don’t have
ing decisions, we may find ourselves solutions—and a toolkit for AI to run enough processing units to make all
sorted by algorithms into groups that locally on connected devices. the connections and computations
don’t make any obvious sense to us— required in the next era of computing.
but which could have massive reper- Enter a suite of new processors found

TRENDS 001 - 030
Artificial on an SoC—“system on a chip.” Hua-

wei, Apple, Alphabet, IBM, NVIDIA,
024 that the future of AI is already under
the direction of too few companies.
Marketplaces For AI
Intelligence Intel and Qualcomm are all working
new systems architecture and SoCs, Algorithms
Just nine big companies dominate
the AI landscape: Alphabet, Amazon,
and some come pre-trained. In short, Microsoft, IBM, Facebook and Apple
cont. this means that the chips are ready
Most organizations can’t staff a team
of developers who have unlimited in the US, along with Chinese behe-
to work on AI projects and should time to create, test and refine al- moths Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba
promise better speeds and more gorithms. As a result, communities (with significant fortification and sup-
secure data. Late in 2017, Elon Musk of developers are offering up their port from the Chinese government).
told developers that Tesla is also algorithms in emerging algorithm On the investment side, Intel Capi-
working on its own custom AI hard- marketplaces. Algorithmia is now the tal, Google Ventures, GE Ventures,
ware chips. Alphabet’s chip is called largest public marketplace for algo- Samsung Ventures, Tencent and
a Tensor Processing Unit (or TPU), rithms, where developers can upload In-Q-Tel lead. As with any technology,
and was specifically built for the deep their work to the cloud and receive when just a few companies dominate
learning branch of AI. It is designed to payment when others pay to access the field, they tend to monopolize
work with the company’s TensorFlow it. Decentralized is a marketplace for both talent and intellectual property.
system. For reference, TPUs are what machine learning algos, while DataXu They’re also partnering to build on
was used in the famous AlphaGo offers a marketplace for its propri- each others’ work. When it comes to
match between the DeepMind system etary algorithms. Amazon, Microsoft, the future of AI, we should ask wheth-
and a world Go champion. Salesforce, Google and IBM all offer er consolidation makes sense for the
algorithm marketplaces for their greater good, and whether compe-
While marketing pre-trained chips to
frameworks and services. Quantiacs tition—and therefore access—will
businesses will speed up commer-
allows developers to build algorithmic eventually be hindered as we’ve seen
cialization and as a result will further
trading systems, and it matches their in other fields such as telecommuni-
R&D, the challenge, of course, is that
algorithms up with capital from insti- cations and cable.
developers might need to wrestle
with different frameworks in the tutional investors. PrecisionHawk has
near-future, especially if the various launched a marketplace for predictive 026
device manufacturers all decide to agriculture algos. A number of other
AI For Deep Linking
start creating unique protocols. We networks, such as Nara Logics and
anticipate an eventual convergence, Clarifai offer tools for developers to Everywhere
pitting just a few companies—and build deep learning into any applica- Deep mobile linking has been around
their SoCs and languages—against tion. since the beginning of smartphones,
each other. and it makes it easier to find and
025 share data across all of the apps in
your phone. There are three kinds of
More Consolidation in AI deep links: traditional, deferred and
Some in the AI ecosystem now worry contextual. Traditional deep links re-

TRENDS 001 - 030
Artificial route you from one app or site (such

as a link posted in Twitter) directly to
debates about accountability as well.
One big challenge is that offering
divulging any personal data used. In
addition, hiring an ethicist to work
Intelligence the app, as long as you have that app

installed. Deferred deep links either
such transparency could reveal the
highly lucrative secret sauce of com-
directly with managers and develop-
ers, as well as greatly diversifying the
link straight to content if the app is mercial products. Another challenge: pool of developers to include people
cont. installed, or to an app store for you asking the systems to simultaneously of different races, ethnicities and
to download the app first. Contextual explain their decision-making process genders, will solve for inherent bias in
deep links offer much more robust could degrade the speed and quality AI systems.
information—they take you from site of output. Imagine sitting beside a
to app, app to site, or app to app, and genius mathematician who gives you
they can also offer personalized infor- correct answers—and then asking her
mation. For example, when you land to stop and show her work, over and
at the airport, you might find that over again.
your airline app sends you a link to
Uber. With advancements in machine
028
learning, app-to-app experiences that
are tailored to the habits of individual Accountability and Trust
users should become more ubiqui- We will soon reach a point when we
tous. will no longer be able to tell if a data
set has been tampered with, either in-
tentionally or accidentally. AI systems
027
rely on our trust. If we no longer trust
Making AI Explain Itself the outcome, decades of research
You’ve undoubtedly heard someone and technological advancement
argue that AI is becoming a “black will be for naught. Leaders in every
box”—that even those researchers sector—government, business, the
working in the field don’t understand nonprofit world and so on—must have
how our newest systems work. That’s confidence in the data and algorithms
not entirely true, however there is used. Building trust and accountabil-
growing concern voiced by computer ity is a matter of showing the work
and cognitive scientists, journalists performed. This is a complicated pro-
and legal scholars who argue that AI cess, as understandably corporations,
systems shouldn’t be so secretive. Go- government offices, law enforcement
ing forward, we will debate whether agencies and other organizations
and how AI should be able to explain want to keep data private. Com-
its decisions and how to offer more mitting to transparency in method
transparency. There will be numerous would create trust without necessarily

TRENDS 001 - 030
detect patterns used in everything

Artificial 029 investment globally. In April, Sense-
from education and manufacturing
Time earned a $4.5 billion valuation,
China’s AI Boom to retail and military applications.
Intelligence The development of AI is our modern
making it the world’s most valuable AI
startup. Meanwhile, Chinese research-
The Chinese startup Megvii Face++,
for instance, is pioneering faceprint
version of an arms race. Right now, ers hold five times the number of
cont. China is laying the groundwork to AI-related patents compared to their
technologies. Faceprints are a newer
form of biometric authentication that
become the world’s unchallenged AI counterparts in the U.S.
use the unique features of our faces—
hegemon.
The country’s massive, population— our bone structure, skin color, even
In just the past few years, China has nearing 1.4 billion people—offers capillaries—to identify us. Faceprints
made tremendous leaps in the field researchers and startups there com- are the new fingerprints, and they’re
of AI. It has promised to become “the mand of what may be the most valu- secure enough to be used for financial
world’s primary AI innovation cen- able natural resource in the future— transactions—and they are used by
ter” by 2030, and as a nation, China human data—without the privacy and China’s police force for widespread
is already making serious progress security restrictions common in much surveillance.
towards that goal. China-based AI of the rest of the world. If data is the
China is quietly weaponizing AI, too.
startups now account for 48% of all new oil, then China is the new OPEC.
China’s People Liberation Army is
Alibaba, China’s version of Amazon, catching up to the U.S. when it comes
will invest $15 billion into AI research to military applications, using AI for
over the next three years, plant- things like spotting hidden images
ing research centers in seven cities on drones. The military is equipping
worldwide, including San Mateo, Calif., helicopters and jet fighters with AI.
and Bellevue, Wash. Baidu (a Chi- Government leaders created a top-se-
nese search-engine company often cret military lab—a Chinese version
likened to Google) established an AI of DARPA in the US—and is building
research center in the Silicon Valley, billion-dollar AI national laboratories.
and Tencent (developer of the me- China’s military is achieving remark-
ga-popular messaging app WeChat) able AI successes, including a recent
began hunting for American talent test of “swarm intelligence,” that can
when it opened an AI lab in Seattle automate dozens of armed drones.
last year. It has since upped its stakes
No other country’s government is rac-
in companies like Tesla and Snap. The
ing towards the future with as much
payoff for the Chinese is not just a
concentrated force and velocity as
typical return on investment—Chinese
China. The country’s extraordinary in-
firms expect IP as well.
vestments in AI could signal big shifts
The kind of rich data the Chinese in the balance of geopolitical power in
are mining can be used to train AI to the years ahead.

TREND 030 • SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
I-Teams For Algorithms
KEEP
and Data REVISIT
LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight quires a special skills set. Investigating technological advancement will be for
algorithms has never been more im- naught. Building trust and account-
With the increased use of data and
portant than it is now. A report from ability is a matter of showing the work
algorithms powering our everyday
the Reuters Institute for the Study of performed. This is a complicated pro-
lives, special-ops teams will deploy to
Journalism at Oxford revealed that in cess, as understandably news orga-
investigate AI.
the U.S., 41 % of those surveyed said nizations would want to keep certain
the government should do more to data and reporting methods private.
Examples make it easier to detect fake informa-
The Cambridge Analytica scandal tion online, compared to 61 percent in Watchlist
proved how vulnerable we are to the United Kingdom and France and
Brown Institute at Columbia Univer-
misinformation created by and spread more than 70 percent in Spain and
Cambridge Analytica and Facebook sity; Macromedia University of Ap-
algorithmically. Some newsrooms South Korea.
have seeded mistrust of algorithms plied Sciences; Tow Center for Digital
are now reporting on the algorithms
and digital content. Journalism at Columbia University;
themselves. Reporters at the New What’s Next AlgorithmWatch.org; ProPublica; Phil-
York Times, Wall Street Journal, Pro-
New techniques in AI—generative ip Merrill College of Journalism at the
Publica and Washington Post have
adversarial networks and adversarial University of Maryland; Media Change
been applying the core practices and
machine learning, for example—are and Innovation Division at the Uni-
skills of reporting to investigating
making it easier to trick both ma- versity of Zurich; Annenberg School
algorithms.   
chines and humans. We will soon of Communication & Journalism and
As technology advances, transparen- reach a point when we will no longer the University of Southern California;
cy in our systems grows murkier. Un- be able to tell if a data set has been Washington Post; New York Times;
derstanding where information comes tampered with, either intentionally Wall Street Journal; National Pub-
from, how it’s spread, and the impact or accidentally. AI systems rely on lic Radio; Investigative Reporters &
it has—not to mention the outcomes our trust. If we no longer trust the Editors; National Institute for Comput-
of algorithmic decision-making—re- outcome, decades of research and er-Assisted Reporting.

Computational Journalism
031 Computational
Photography
032 Computational
Journalism
033 Faceprints
034 Voiceprints
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Computational
KEEP
Photography REVISIT
LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight to change the composition of their Watchlist

photographs in real time. Photos are
Computational photography is the MIT’s CSAIL; MIT’s Media Lab; Nvidia;
taken in a stack, and then rendered
convergence of computer vision, University of California-Santa Barbara;
with multiple views. This would allow
computer graphics, the internet and Google; Apple; Samsung; Facebook;
photographers to change perspective
photography. Rather than relying on Synopsys; Industrial Light and Mag-
and the relative size of objects within
optical processes alone, it uses digital ic; LG; Huawei; Morpho; Qualcomm;
a photo after it has been taken. Other
capturing and processing techniques Stanford University Computational
use cases of computational photog-
to capture real life. Imaging Lab; the Gcam team at Goo-
raphy include seamlessly removing or
gle Research.
adding objects to scenes, changing
Examples shadows and reflections, and the like.
Alex Berg, an associate professor at
Everyone with a smartphone now has Meanwhile, MIT’s CSAIL and Google
UNC Chapel Hill, shows image com-
access to computational photography developed a technique that now au-
positing and in-painting using gradi-
tools. In its iPhones, Apple uses com- tomatically retouches and enhances
ent domain processing.
putational photography to achieve the photos we take with our mobile
a shallow depth of field, while Face- phones. Clearly there are ethical
book corrects any 360-degree photos implications here for journalists—how
you upload. much editing should be allowed and
under what circumstances? Likewise,
What’s Next journalists should develop techniques
to reveal how much editing has been
New research from Nvidia and the
done to a photo—either intentionally
University of California-Santa Barbara
or automatically—before using them
reveal a computational zoom tech-
for reporting or in stories.
nique, which allows photographers

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Computational Journalism
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight ing journalists to combine what they nalists with complimentary skills sets.
find in the data and then see the con- There are a host of stories waiting to
What are the ways in which data and
nections between facts, keywords and be discovered, written and produced.
algorithms can enhance reporting?
concepts. In this way, they can reveal
Computer Assisted Reporting (or
interconnected relationships between Watchlist
CAR, as its known by industry profes-
people and organizations that they
sionals) is an investigative journalism Google; Bing; Apple; Microsoft; Neura;
might not have otherwise seen.
technique. Reporters find, clean and Investigative Reporters & Editors; Na-
mine public records and documents, One modality is to harness the data tional Institute for Computer-Assisted
crunch data and uncover hidden from a crowd in a technique known as Reporting; Coral Project; Stanford
stories. Aided by machine learning “crowdlearning.” Crowdlearning is a Computational Journalism Lab; Duke
Neura uses machine learning algo- algorithms and AI, computational computational journalism technique University; University of British Co-
rithms to analyze sensor data to cre- journalism is the evolution of CAR. that queries our passive data—our lumbia; University of Texas at Austin;
ate insights about end-user real-world mobile and online activity, our pub- Brown Institute at Columbia Universi-
experiences. Examples lic health records, our locations—to ty; Tow Center for Digital Journalism
learn or understand something new. at Columbia University; Philip Merrill
It’s one thing to find and mine pub-
One company making good use of College of Journalism at the Universi-
lic data—analyzing what’s there, and
this technique is Neura, an AI-start- ty of Maryland; Media Change and In-
connecting the seemingly uncon-
up that learns from a broad spec- novation Division at the University of
nectable dots, is another challenge
trum real-world and digital user data Zurich; Annenberg School of Commu-
entirely. Computational journalism
throughout the day. nication & Journalism and the Univer-
techniques such as multi-language
sity of Southern California; Wall Street
indexing, automated reporting, entity
What’s Next Journal; New York Times; Washington
extraction, algorithmic visualization,
Post; Tamedia; ProPublica; National
multidimensional analysis of data sets, We anticipate increased demand in
Public Radio.
and flexible data scraping are allow- computational journalism and jour-

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Faceprints
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight a faceprint, rather than a key fob. Olympics. Chinese startup Megvii
Researchers in Japan and China are Face++, supported heavily with sov-
Advanced computing systems can
working on representation models ereign wealth funds from both China
now use unique features of our fac-
that require only a portion of your and Russia, is pioneering faceprint
es—our bone structure, skin color,
face, even in low light, to accurately technologies that are secure enough
even capillaries —to identify us. Face-
predict someone’s identity—even as to be used for financial transactions.
prints are the new fingerprints.
they change their hairstyles, get plas- Face++ is also being used by China’s
tic surgery or grow a beard. police force for widespread surveil-
Examples lance. Unlike fingerprinting or iris/ ret-
The stages of facial alignment used

Faceprints are a newer form of What’s Next inal scanning, which are difficult to do
biometric authentication. In 2014, without someone’s direct knowledge,
in a Facebook study on deep learning German researchers are working to
Facebook announced its “Deep- faceprints can be taken surreptitious-
and facial recognition. create thermal faceprints by taking
Face” software, which was capable ly, even from far away.
heat maps of our faces and using
of recognizing the people in photos
machine vision to recognize patterns. We anticipate legal challenges, at
with 97% accuracy (that’s about the
Their technology can accurately least here in the U.S. In 2017, a fed-
same accuracy as humans). Saks Fifth
identify a face—and in under 35 mil- eral judge allowed a class-action
Avenue is one example of a luxury
liseconds, regardless of the amount suit brought against Shutterfly for
store that’s now using faceprints to
of lighting or the facial expressions allegedly violating the Illinois Biomet-
track VIP customers. Last year, Apple
people make. Researchers at NEC in ric Information Privacy Act, which
introduced its Face ID system with
Japan are taking multiple 3D scans to requires companies to secure written
the iPhone X. It unlocks the phone
quickly check a person’s face against releases before collecting biometric
using infrared and visible light scans
those catalogued in a registry; it’s data, which includes their faces. (This
to identify the unique characteristics
expected to deploy the system for Illinois state law is the only one of its
of your face. China’s Byton has built
everyone participating in the 2020 kind in the U.S.)
an electric SUV that you unlock with

TREND 033
Faceprints cont.
Watchlist
FaceTec; Megvii; CyLab Biometrics
Center at Carnegie Mellon University;
Noveto; SenseTime; Sensible Vision;
China; Russia; Alphabet; LG; Apple;
Facebook; Alibaba; Samsung; An-
droid; NEC; U.S. Government Ac-
countability Office

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Voiceprints
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist

Technology has made it possible to Nuance Communications is working KnuEdge; MIT Media Lab; Amazon;
recognize who you are, even without with auto manufacturers, including Microsoft; DARPA; Alphabet; Nuance
seeing your face. Ford and BMW, to develop more ac- Communications; Apple; IBM; Carne-
curate voice recognition in the cock- gie Mellon University; Alibaba; Ten-
Examples pit. Theoretically, this same technol- cent; Samsung.
ogy could be used to detect whether
Voiceprints are the set of unique
a driver has had too much to drink
characteristics that make up your
or is suffering from a health condi-
individual voice. New machine learn-
tion, making it unsafe to operate the
ing techniques, combined with vast
Voiceprint recognition is the use of vehicle. Voiceprints could be used to
datasets of recorded voices, have
various AI techniques to recognize a unlock the door when your arms are
now enabled researchers to identify
person’s voice. full of packages—and to help digital
us simply by listening for the micro-
assistants, such as Alexa, customize
signatures produced when we speak.
interactions for each member of your
San Diego-based KnuEdge built a
family. Researchers at Carnegie Mel-
military-grade platform capable of
lon University discovered a generative
recognizing our individual voices,
technique allowing them to build a
even in a noisy environment. Founded
3D version of someone’s face using
by NASA’s former Chief Administra-
only their voiceprint. This system is
tor and its Chief Technology Officer,
being deployed by law enforcement
KnuEduge hired world-class voice
agencies to identify prank callers and
impersonators to see if they could
those who trick local agencies into
fool the system, but the technology
sending out swat teams to take out
prevailed every time.
retaliation or revenge on others.

Blockchain Technologies
035 Tokenomics
036 Tokens For Smart

Royalties and
Freelancers
037 Immutable
Journalism
038 Self-Sovereign
Identity
039 Distributed
Computing For
a Cause
040 Decentralized
Curation
TRENDS 035 - 040 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Blockchain Technologies
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Blockchain: A Primer For or ICO. Ethereum raised $19 million
in 2014. In 2017, more than 400 ICOs
Blockchain technology hit an inflec- Journalism and Media
raised $5.6 billion.
tion point in 2017. It evolved beyond Who started it?
Bitcoin, from a fringe form of digital In the years since, distributed ledger
We don’t know for sure. Blockchain technologies (DLTs) have evolved into
currency, and broke into mainstream,
was first introduced in 2008 when a countless permutations and appli-
as a revolutionary way to share and
person or group of people under the cations across almost every industry
store information. While this tech-
name “Satoshi Nakamoto” published imaginable.
nology is still developing, its broad
the seminal paper “Bitcoin: a Peer to
and far-reaching applications have What is Blockchain, exactly?
Peer Electronic Cash System.” Wheth-
the potential to impact a range of
er Nakamoto is a real person, or a “Blockchain” is shorthand for “Distrib-
At its core, blockchain enables multi- industries. For that reason, we have
community of people, we still don’t uted Ledger Technology.” Blockchain
ple parties to agree on a single source outlined key themes within block-
know, because they’ve never come is a method of sharing and storing
of truth without having to trust one chain technology that are relevant for
forward publicly. information on a distributed ledger
another. journalism, media, and adjacent areas
where identities and transactions
of technology. In 2015, Canadian computer pro-
are cryptographically protected. At
grammer Vitalik Buterin co-founded
its core, blockchain enables multiple
Ethereum, a blockchain-based proto-
parties to agree on a single source
col that allowed for more sophisticat-
of truth without having to trust one
ed functionality in the form of smart
another. It facilitates agreement and
contracts. Smart contracts are self-ex-
aligns incentives using consensus
ecuting agreements where the terms
algorithms. In theory, blockchain
of the agreement are directly written
reduces the need for intermediaries
into lines of code. Ethereum was also
(such as banks) to coordinate or veri-
the first blockchain project to fund-
fy transactions.
raise through an “Initial Coin Offering”

TRENDS 035 - 040
Blockchain Where is the Blockchain? it is cryptographically added to the

existing chain of blocks or “block-
There isn’t just one blockchain. In fact,
Technologies there are different types: private, pub-
lic, and federated. Blockchains can be
chain” which forms the ledger and
miners being working on the next
block. Since it is impossible to pre-
cont. started by individuals, companies or
consortiums, and they live on multiple
dict which miner will verify the next
transaction, it is nearly impossible to
machines simultaneously. There is no
collude against, attack, or defraud
singular place where “the blockchain”
the network. The network is secure
is hosted.
as long as miners act independently
How does it work? of one another. Much of the mining is
Let’s assume we have a network of automated using sophisticated tools.
100 individual nodes running a block- Drawbacks
chain ledger. Every node has access
Blockchain is still nascent technology
to see the full ledger because the
and there are a lot of challenges that
ledger is distributed. No single node
need to be addressed before it can
controls the network and all nodes
reach mass adoption. The primary
have the option to become miners
challenges of blockchain relate to
if they choose because the network
speed, scale, and regulation.
is decentralized. Some nodes on the
network choose to be miners which Decentralized systems are inherently
means they have the responsibility less efficient than centralized systems
to verify pending transactions. This and there are trade-offs between
work costs more, in terms of ener- security and scale. Bitcoin and Ethe-
gy usage and CPU—and so miners reum process between three to six
are rewarded for their efforts. Every transactions per second whereas Visa
miner that verifies a block of transac- can process thousands of transactions
tions wins a block reward, for exam- per second.
ple 12.5 bitcoins. Transactions are The regulatory environment for
verified by running what are called blockchains and ICOs is still unclear.
“proof-of-work” and “proof-of-stake” In the US, the U.S. Securities and
consensus algorithms, and miners Exchange Commission, the Financial
compete against each other to verify Crimes Enforcement Network, the U.S.
transactions. Once a miner verifies a Commodity Futures Trading Commis-
set of transactions or a “block,” the sion and state governments all have
node broadcasts the new block to differing and, at times conflicting,
the entire network. If the majority of policies related to blockchains and
the network agrees the block is valid, cryptoassets.
BLOCKCHAIN TERMS AND LINGO
51% attack Blockchain exchange. Crypto-currencies’ value Forks can be accidental, temporary,
fluctuates depending on demand and intentional, permanent, planned or
A hypothetical attack on a blockchain A new way to share and store infor-
supply, similar to traditional currency contentious. They can be the result of
where a group of miners working mation on a distributed system where
in the global economy. software upgrades or governance de-
collectively controls more that 50% transactions and identities are cryp-
cisions that nodes refuse to acknowl-
of the network’s mining power. These tographically secured. Blockchains DAO
edge or forget to install.
miners could collude to verify fraudu- are a subset of distributed ledger Decentralized Autonomous Organiza-
lent transactions. technologies (DLTs). Bitcoin, Ethe- tion. Many coins use DAOs as a form Fork—hard fork
reum and Litecoin are some of the
Altcoins of governance and decision-making Software update on a blockchain
more famous examples of blockchain among the network. The Ethereum protocol that is not backward com-
Any coin other than Bitcoin. networks. DAO is the most famous because it patible, creating a separate block-
Bitcoin Cold storage resulted in a contentious hard fork chain. Ethereum’s hardfork resulted
Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and a $50 million hack. (Not to be in Ethereum and Ethereum Classic.
Refers to storing a digital “wallet”
and the first blockchain. It was intro- confused with the venture capital
or private keys offline, in a piece Fork— soft fork
duced in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto. fund called DAO, which built on top
of hardware not connected to the Software update on a blockchain
The currency is abbreviated as BTC of Ethereum.)
internet. protocol that is backward compatible
on exchanges. Dapp
Consensus Algorithms with order versions.
Block height Decentralized applications running
Algorithms used on blockchain pro- FUD
Number of blocks preceding a partic- on blockchain platforms.
tocols to reach agreement among the Fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
ular block. The first block on a block- miners. Examples include: proof of Ethereum
chain is refered to as the “genesis work, proof of stake, proof of author-
Full node
Ethereum is the second largest coin
block” and has a block height of zero. ity, and byzantine fault tolerance. A node on the network that can act
by marketcap after Bitcoin. It was
Block rewards Crypto-asset introduced in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin. as a miner, verifying transactions on
The currency is abbreviated as ETH the blockchain network.
Tokens are distributed by the net- Tokenized asset issued on a public
work to the miner that verifies a ledger. Includes crypto-currencies
on exchanges. Governance
particular block. Block rewards are like bitcoin but also platform tokens, Fiat Set rules that govern the blockchain
different from mining fees and tips utility tokens, and tokenized securi- protocol; governance structures can
Government-issued currency.
which are distributed by individu- ties. include on-chain rules like smart con-
als (as opposed to the network) to Fork tracts and code specifications and
incentivize miners to verify their Crypto-currency
The splitting of a single blockchain, off-chain rules like a board of direc-
transactions first. A crypto-asset that designed to creating two alternative blockchains tors and annual meetings.
function as money; a medium of on different parts of the network.

BLOCKCHAIN TERMS AND LINGO
Hash pointer Immutability Smart Contracts

Unique alphanumeric string links A primary characteristic of block- Self-enforcing agreements where the
blocks in the chain together with a chains, which create a record of terms are built directly into code and
one way math function. transactions that does not change issued on a blockchain.
and prevents “back-dating” in record
Hashing Solidity
keeping. Also referred to as “digital
One-way math function that takes granite.” Programming language invented by
any input and produces an unique al- Vitalik Buterin for smart contracts on
phanumeric string, used in blockchain Light Node Ethereum.
to condense information into blocks, A node on the network that can Token
useful for assigning any digital file or transact with other nodes but cannot
asset with a unique identifier. verify transactions. Digital identity for something that
can be owned.
HODL Mempool
TPS
Misspelling of the word “hold,” it’s a Aggregate number and size of un-
term used by crypto investors to de- confirmed transactions on a block- Transactions per second, used to
scribe keeping coins despite market chain. compare the speeds of different
volatility and price crashes. blockchains.
Public Key + Private Key
Hot storage Wallet
Cryptography (similar to what’s used
Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or in credit cards) for identities, alpha- File that contains a collection of pri-
private keys online, usually within an numeric addresses used to send and vate keys.
application or exchange connected receive transactions. Whitepaper
to the internet. Examples include
SHA256 A technical paper outlining the gov-
Poloniex, Coinbase and Bittrex.
Cryptographic hash algorithm used in ernance, protocol, and features of a
ICO most blockchains. project.
Short for Initial Coin Offering. It’s a Shilling
relatively unregulated way of raising
money. Aggressively promoting a coin or
crypto-asset.

CROSS-REFERENCED TRENDS
FOR BLOCKCHAIN
Blockchain technology has the potential to impact many industries, but
there is still plenty of uncertainty around the role that blockchain might
play in the next five to ten years. We’ve cross-referenced distributed
ledger technologies with some of the most relevant trends in this report
to help you identify the biggest opportunity for blockchain technology
within your organization.
• Artificial Intelligence (especially Biases)

• Computational Journalism
• Digital Frailty
• Radical Transparency
• One-to-Few Publishing
• Real-Time Fact Checking
• Offline is the New Online
• Splinternets
• Blocking the Ad Blockers
• First Amendment in the Digital Age
• Virtual Reality
• Trolls
• Prize Hacks
• Glitches
• Ownership

FOR BLOCKCHAIN
FTI Trend Most blockchains are transparent by FTI Trends digital advertisers track their cam-
Uncovering Hidden Bias default; allowing any node to observe Digital Frailty paigns across platforms throughout
Connection to Blockchain the flow of information from one Data Retention Policies the media landscape.
Biased algorithms have been a key address to the next through programs NBCU recently launched Blockgraph
Connection to Blockchain
issue in AI. Blockchains depend on called block explorers. If large public with a similar purpose. Anheuser Bus-
A permanent immutable ledger is one
algorithms and governance struc- datasets are put on the blockchain, it ch is experimenting with blockchain
of the defining characteristics of a
tures; and therefore are vulnerable to may be easier for reporters to mine to measure the effectiveness of ads.
blockchain and one of the best ways
hidden biases as well. these data for interesting stories AdLedger is a nonprofit consortium
to combat digital frailty. Decentralized
and insights. Wyoming, Nevada, of industry leaders committed to es-
Many of the consensus algorithms systems more robust and a block-
Illinois, and a handful of other states tablishing global technical standards
like proof of stake and proof of work, chain ledger will never completely go
are pioneering efforts to put public and solutions for the digital media
are based on majority vote decisions. away so long as two nodes exist. Lo-
databases on blockchains. Passive and blockchain industries.
What does it mean to be a minority cal media organizations and govern-
data on public blockchains can reveal
voice on the blockchain? Hard forks, ment agencies might consider using
a surprising amount about users on
like Ethereum after the DAO hack, are blockchain as a way to preserve news FTI Trend
the network. Chainalysis is a com-
perfect examples of how decisions archives, legacy databases, studies Real-time fact checking
pany that helps banks, regulators
are made at the protocol level. and reports. Civil is a blockchain jour- The consensus algorithms that are
and private corporations understand
nalism startup focused on creating a part of all blockchains are basical-
From surface-level UX concerns, such customer behavior and activity by
sustainable business model for local ly real-time fact checkers. Miners
as how blind users access their digital observing various blockchains and
news outlets. work in real-time to validate pending
wallets, to more abstract concepts exchanges. They help uncover illegal
like the disproportionate influence of activity, bad actors as well as main- transactions before adding them to
FTI Trend
miners, the blockchain industry must tain KYC/ AML (know your customer, the ledger. In the next five years, we
Transparency in Metrics are likely to see wider applications of
stay vigilant to uncover hidden biases. anti-money laundering) compliance.
Connection to Blockchain blockchains as a way to validate or
With both of these trends, privacy
FTI Trends Whether it’s transparency in digital invalidate claims and stories.
concerns have led to industry-wide
Computational Journalism advertising, IP management and roy-
discussions on opt-in data-sharing
Radical Transparency alty payments or reporting, block- FTI Trend
policies, ethical collection of informa-
chain can track and store data, allow- Offline is the New Online
Connection to Blockchain tion, and whether or not privacy is a
ing organizations to make public only Connection to Blockchain
Blockchain can dramatically impact human right. A group of privacy-fo-
information that is important without As consumer behavior shifts in re-
computer assisted reporting tech- cused coins like ZCash and Monero
revealing more than they want to. sponse to changing technology, we
niques, particularly with flexible data have emerged and are growing in
collection and multidimensional anal- popularity. Companies such as MadHive have will have to redefine what we mean
ysis of datasets. launched a suite of products to help by “online” “offline.” Similarly, as

FOR BLOCKCHAIN
blockchains grow in popularity, so will Freedom of speech in the digital age environment. Neighborhoods can FTI Trends
terms like “on-chain” and “off-chain,” has far-reaching implications, beyond form self-governing districts similar to Splinternets
which is to say, data stored on the just what we can say and what we SecondLife or the scifi fantasy novels Connection to Blockchain
ledger and data stored elsewhere. can write. Blockchains have been Ready Player One and Snow Crash. For better or worse, blockchains can
commonly referred to as “censorship be a powerful tool to enforce splin-
Media companies need to think about
resistant” networks meaning central FTI Trends ternets on behalf of governments
designing applications when users
have little to no Wi-Fi connection. authorities like banks or governments Prize Hacks maintaining political firewalls or cor-
They also need to consider situations do not have the power to block or Gigware porations protecting content behind
in which data cannot be stored and censor transactions. Crowdsourcing paywalls.
tracked, therefore is it trusted? Wikileaks began accepting bitcoin in Connection to Blockchain
2011 following a banking blockade. Aligning and optimizing incentives is
FTI Trend Intimate.io offers financial services to a key characteristic of blockchains.
Blocking the Ad Blockers workers in the adult entertainment Decentralized crowd-sourced projects
Blockchain web browsers and web 3.0 industry. These are two of many ex- are easier to monitor, execute and
decentralized applications (dapps) amples of how blockchain can facili- track through smart contracts. Start-
are a threat to incumbents like Google tate first amendment freedoms in the ups PolySwarm, GitCoin, and Bounties
and Facebook. At the moment, these digital age. Network are all using blockchain to
products is still very fringe but it is fuel the gig-economy.
important to see how they develop. FTI Trend
Brave is an open-source web browser Mixed Reality FTI Trends
with a built-in ad blocker that uses a Connection to Blockchain

Glitches
pay-to-surf business model. Block- MR like blockchain, is still in its early Connection to Blockchain
stack takes it a step further than a days. However, if we take a moment Any emerging tech will have the
browser by building a “new internet” to think about blockchains as digital growing pains of glitches, blockchain
where users own all their data and governance models, self-regulating is no exception. Most of the major
authorize usage to various dapps on networks, and decentralized autono- exchanges have suffered embarrass-
the platform. mous organizations, then it becomes ing glitches resulting in significant
easier to see where blockchain and loss of capital. Since blockchain is still
FTI Trend MR can intersect. In Decentraland, us- relatively unregulated, all companies
First Amendment in the Digital Age ers can purchase plots of digital land, should proceed with caution in this
and create, experience, and monetize “buyer beware” market.
Connection to Blockchain
applications within a virtual reality

BLOCKCHAIN COMPANIES IN Company Description Category
Hicky dating app Social Network
MEDIA AND JOURNALISM BY Howdoo social network Social Network
CATEGORY IBM iX + MediaOcean launch a blockchain ad transparen-

cy solution
Digital Advertising
Immvrse VR content platform Media Platform

Kind Ads startup Digital Advertising
This list was created during the summer of 2018. We expect M&A will impact Littlstar IP rights management and reward IP/ royalty manage-
system, Ara ment
the companies listed during the next year.
LivePeer Media Platform
Peach indicates a blockchain media company, while Orange indicates a media Luna dating app Social Network
company investing in blockchain technology. MadHive Digital Advertising
Note: this list has been compiled for informational purposes only. It is not an MetaX - ad Digital Advertising
endorsement of these companies or their services. Microsoft + EY using blockchain to pay game de- IP/ royalty manage-
velopers (run on Quorum) ment
Otoy RNDR Web 3.0
Company Description Category PeerTracks startup - music Media Platform
AdEx startup Digital Advertising Po.et startup - media headed up by Media Platform
Washington Post’s Jarrod Dicker
AdLedger nonprofit consortium of industry Digital Advertising
leaders Ponder dating app - friends pay if they set Social Network
you up with a good match
Ascribe.io IP management
RAWG IMDB for video games Social Network
Asora startup - privacy, ad blocking Digital Advertising
Salon mining on people’s sites who use Digital Advertising
Brave startup - browser that uses BAT Web 3.0 ad blockers
(Basic Attention Token) for ads
SingluarDTV startup - video, music Media Platform
CBS Crypto Crow show in seven local Content creator
Slate Media Platform
markets (CBS and CW) and on
Roku Spotify acquired Mediachain – a music IP/ royalty manage-
rights/ compensation infrastructure ment
Cellarius Content creator
Steem.it Content creator
CoinDesk owned by DCG Content creator
Ubisoft game developer exploring block- IP/ royalty manage-
Comcast Blockgraph and Blockdaemon Digital Advertising
chain ment
Current Media streaming platform backed by Mark Media Platform
Ujo startup - music Media Platform
Cuban
Vaultitude IP management
Custos Media IP management
Vevue startup - video Media Platform
Decentraland VR social network Social Network
Video Coin decentralized encoding and storage Web 3.0
Disney incubated DragonChain, enterprise Other
blockchain solution Yours Social Network

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Tokenomics
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight with virtually zero transaction costs or line up. SingularDTV’s soon-to-launch
a rewards program that allows users distribution platform is called Ethervi-
Blockchain allows businesses to cre-
to lower their monthly subscription by sion. Simple Coin has partnered with
ate tokens. A token is a unit of value
consuming more media. Unsplash, a photography website,
that a business creates to self-govern
to create a new business model and
its operations, incentivize its users, Distribution channels are typically
distribution network for photogra-
and distribute benefits to all stake- “winner-take-all” models where a
phers. Unsplash already has integra-
holders. Tokenomics refers to the handful of players dominate the mar-
tions with Google Slides and Invision.
different business models made pos- ket. Comcast, AT&T, YouTube, Vimeo,
Realistically, the existing distribution
sible by blockchain and DLT networks Soundcloud, and Spotify are just a
models will be difficult to displace
where a token can represent usage, few examples. While it’s difficult to
and disrupt. Civil, a blockchain media
Tokenomics can revolutionize how utility, value or a combination of the imagine these companies ever going
firm, is making a big bet on tokenom-
media companies approach moneti- three. Tokenomics can revolution- away, if the talent and the audience
ics to create a self-sustaining business
zation and distribution. ize how media companies approach move en masse to other platforms
model for journalism and local media
monetization and distribution. with better features (pricing models,
outlets. Steemit is one of the oldest
revenue share, IP protection), then
media-based blockchain tokenomics
Examples those companies may lose their posi-
projects. Launched in 2016, Steemit
tion as market leaders.
Historically, media companies and is a social networking site that pays
news organizations have relied on SingularDTV is a blockchain media content creators and curators with
a mix of ad-based and subscrip- company building out a variety of over one million registered accounts.
tion-based revenue models. News- token models for artists, producers,
and audiences. They have helped
papers are a clear example of how What’s Next
rapidly these revenue models can be artists finance projects and they have
launched peer-to-peer music festivals Tokenomics as a concept was first in-
disrupted by digital entrants. Block-
where audiences have a say in the troduced in late 2017. Currently, these
chain can facilitate micropayments

TREND 035
Tokenomics cont.
models are mostly theoretical and it

will be a few years before we see how
consumers behave with these models
in practice.
Watchlist
Civil; ConsenSys; SingularDTV; Steem.
io

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Tokens For Smart
KEEP
Royalties and Freelancers REVISIT
LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples on a blockchain ledger and then using

a web crawling service to scan web-
Platforms like Ethereum enable Ethereum and other decentralized
sites to see if a copyrighted image is
micropayments for accessing intellec- application platforms are building
being used.
tual property including content like infrastructure for content creators
news or music. The platforms enable to receive micro transactions for Smart contracts, digital intellectual
this through smart contracts, which access to their intellectual property. property rights and micro payments
are basic contracts that are automat- This is laying the foundation for new, advancements are creating an oppor-
ically executed. For example, every low-friction ways to automate roy- tunity for news and media to revisit
time a song is played, it sends a small alty payments for digital intellectual an economic model that was once
amount of money from the listener to property. adopted by the news services on
KODAKCoin is designed to help the artist. CompuServe in the 1980s. This was
Ryan Leslie’s platform SuperPhone
photographers be compensated a news structure where readers paid
Platforms will be created around is an example of a content creator
and retain ownership of their digital per view of articles, including pay-
giving the content creator the most choosing to develop their own distri-
property ing extra for images. At the time this
ownership and rewards for the con- bution model to cut out intermediar-
was possible because CompuServe
tent produced. Content creators will ies. The platform SuperPhone is being
offered higher quality journalism in
drive adoption because they get the developed into a platform for other
a way that was easier to find, search
majority of revenues instead of giving artists to do the same.
and read. Ultimately this service failed
the majority of the revenues to the KODAKOne and Binded are examples due to increasing availability of free,
distribution platforms. At the same of platforms designed to help pho- high quality journalism and the advent
time the creators will also retain more tographers manage the digital rights of free search services such as Google
ownership control and direct interac- of images using blockchain technolo- and AOL.
tion with the audience. gy. They primarily work by recording
ownership and creation of the images

TREND 036
Tokens For
Smart Royalties
and Freelancers
cont.
What’s Next matter what platform it is created Watchlist

on is an example. As such we expect
Artists with music will be first to Civil; Ethereum; Cardano; EOS; NEO;
that there will be increased demand
publish content on a smart contract IOTA; Monero; SuperPhone; Kodak
for platforms that allow the content
enabled platform where content cre- Coin; Binded; Getty; Reuters
creator to retain ownership and be
ators must give less money to inter-
compensated for the engagement
mediaries. This type of content will
they drive. This is likely to affect the
be more successful as there is greater
photography industry as historically
consumer demand and significant
photographers retained copyright
revenue for the artists to capture in
ownership of their film photographs.
disintermediating the record and dis-
But recent platforms have required
tribution companies.
photographers to sign over rights to
News platforms will be fast followers the image purchaser.
but will struggle to incentivize end
The change in ownership rights would
users to migrate to new platforms as
be the equivalent of Instagram paying
specific journalists have less market
popular content creators directly to
power and smaller follower base.
retain them on their platform—it’s a
Ownership of digital assets are departure from the current model,
evolving with a movement for content where network effects mean that Ins-
creators to keep ownership rights of tagram does not need to pay content
their content. GDPR rules in Europe creators. Instead, content creators
where people have greater ownership are paid by brands who seek to get
rights over the data they create, no access to the creators’ followers.

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
Near-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing
For Smart Royalties Digital assets of all kinds adopt in- Creators migrate to platforms that We have a patent troll problem—
tellectual property protection rules provide greater intellectual property. they’re chasing IP and burdens for
In the next 10 years content creators and systems. This enables content First movers will be musical artists distribution channels. Patent trolls
will demand more control over their creators to capture more of the value that already have established them- make the economics of creating
intellectual property and will begin to that they create downstream, leading selves in their industry. It will not be content even more compressed—that
use platforms that provide increased to a change in the distribution of re- the standard way of operating for end winds up reducing creativity and
intellectual property protection. As wards in the value chain. This reduces consumers, but end consumers will shrinking the pool of people and
encryption, cryptography and dig- the dominance of the delivery chan- be willing to use multiple platforms to brands creating new content. Only
ital identity technology evolve and nel from information delivery. Con- get to the content they value or be- those who can afford the potential
become more mainstream, digital sequently, ownership and copyright cause of a strong personal connection costs of defending their IP are willing
content will be managed and con- structures become much clearer and with the content creator. to create new works.
trolled in such a way that analog/ misappropriation of content becomes
physical ownership structures will be very rare. Additionally, as creators are
Probability Probability
able to be applied to digital content. more fairly compensated, they create
Examples include limiting the number more content that is both paid and 40% because there are strong finan- 30% because if the technology to
of copies an image can be made and unpaid. cial incentives for specific players to track IP becomes cost effective for
watermarking individual copies of increase their ability to defend their creators to use, it is quite likely that
photographs. IP. As such they will create momen- there will be companies seeking to
Probability tum for advances in technology to copy the patent troll business model
30% because this would require that enable cost effective enablement of by taking large to medium sized cor-
entire industries adopt a new tech- DRM. The network effects will likely porations to court.
nology format. The music industry be strong as huge scale is not needed
tried this in the past using DRM but to start.
a lack of standards and a perception
that consumers were being cheated,
crippled adoption.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Immutable Journalism
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Examples What’s Next

Blockchain technology allows for the TRON and Civil are blockchain Publishers will soon leverage block-
creation of a distributed immutable platforms designed to create decen- chain-based platforms to guarantee
record of information (a record that tralized sources of information. They that their content does not get mod-
can never be deleted or modified, allow anyone to create and distribute ified or censored on route to its end
essentially a ledger of records that content freely and that cannot be consumers. Information archive com-
can only be added to). This would easily censored. Decentralized plat- panies or distribution companies—like
enable information to be recorded forms for news and information will WikiLeaks—would be able to distrib-
and distributed in a way that is visible give more control to publishers and ute information using a distributed
to all and cannot be changed without will shift the power structure away system by inserting the information
Information can be permanent and changing all records across most us- from platform operators, who control within a blockchain ledger similar to
accessible to all with blockchain tech- ers. A distribution channel leveraging or limit distribution and compensation Bitcoin’s. Recording information in a
nology. blockchain technology could make it Think of this trend as a new way to blockchain would also ensure that it
more difficult to censor and limit ac- build trust around critical information. does not become inaccessible if the
cess to information. Content creators host servers are disconnected.
could use distribution channels that
can guarantee that their content does Watchlist
not get altered, filtered or blocked by
TRON; Civil; Decent; Ethereum; reddit;
a third party.
Twitter; WordPress; Wix.com; Quora;
WikiLeaks; Internet Archive; Agora

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
Mid-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing
For the Future of Im- Storage and transmission capabilities Specific actors and types of infor- Governments restrict information un-
expand to support information sys- der the assumption that the public is
mutable Public Infor- tems that are never deleted and can
mation will be valuable enough to
deemed unable to act in the interest
merit the additional effort required
mation handle each person having a copy of to be put into a blockchain. Some will of the greater good. Consequently,
all information. The world adopts an information becomes increasingly
champion the technology, but the
In the next 15 years, specific types ethos that all news and information is confidential and distributed ledgers
technology fails to create a change in
of information will begin to be permanent and transparent. become outlawed from data owner-
how people think about information
transferred into databases that use ship perspectives. Splinternets be-
and access. Rather than creating a
blockchain technology to ensure News and elections are based on come increasingly common and trust
social revolution, we instead debate
their immutability. The first data sets immutable and transparent record is centralized in organizations with
the politics of immutable records.
to be converted will be ones where systems such as blockchain. This limited oversight. News and infor-
there is significant distrust among reduces confusion and conflict around mation is limited by editorial control
the members and where a governing governance transitions. It causes in- Probability from larger entities that are primarily
body’s impartiality is questionable. creased efforts on bridging the digital driven by self-interest.
70% because blockchain requires
Financial services will continue to be to analog divide, thus bringing more
development and changing of es-
a driver of development, but interest and more people into the digital en-
tablished practices only specific use Probability
in polling and election/governance vironment, which will improve access
cases will have enough benefit and
systems will increase. and reduce social inequality. 20% governments from developed
self-interest for the players involved
to pilot the technology. markets are tending towards increas-
ingly protectionist practices and
Probability
limiting globalization which will likely
10% some elections will use block- also include freedom of information
chain but will not be trusted nor flow. Similar in approaches to China’s
executed in a 100% trustless way. supervision of information exchange.
Smaller and emerging economies will
drive adoption, but their execution
will be poor and have limited global
relevance.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Self-Sovereign Identity
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Self-sovereign identity has two pri- personally identifiable information
mary benefits: increased security and (PII) to reset passwords and break
Identity management systems have
increased control. Increased secu- into accounts.
seen a gradual evolution from gov-
rity because decentralized identity
ernment issued IDs to email providers In the media industry, companies
solutions in theory are much harder to
and social media accounts. The aver- struggle with how to deal with digital
hack. Increased control because when
age person now has dozens of unique identity and authentication. Stream-
an individual manages her identity,
online accounts. Companies like ing platforms like Netflix and HBOGo
she owns her data and can therefore
Google, Yahoo, and Facebook have have multiple users sharing a sin-
decide how to monetize it. For media
built their business models on man- gle paid account. Online publishers
companies, self-sovereign identity
aging troves of data on behalf of their have experimented with a myriad of
is a trend that touches on paywalls,
Self-sovereign identity is a system users, but users have suffered from paywalls and authentication systems
authentication, creative IP and royalty
where the user is central to the ad- large-scale security breaches—like to allow paid users to enjoy services
tracking, as well as digital advertising.
ministration of her data and owns her the Yahoo hack that impacted every across multiple devices and apps
data outright. single one of its 3 billion accounts. without threatening revenue or secu-
Examples rity. Content creators and advertisers,
Blockchains and distributed ledger
Identity systems help individuals vali- two crucial parts of the media ecosys-
technologies have introduced a new
date reputation, manage risk and gain tem, also struggle with tracking and
approach to identity management:
access to groups. Many systems rely managing creative IP and campaigns.
self-sovereign identity. Self-sovereign
on third-party “identity providers” like Self-sovereign identity would increase
identity is a system where the user is
governments, Facebook, or Google. the transparency and efficiency of
central to the administration of her
Digital identity management has been each of these processes.
data and owns her data outright. It
a central point of vulnerability for in- For IP management and royalty
is interoperable and transportable
dividuals and corporations alike with tracking, if these processes were
across applications, devices, and
hackers using phishing emails and stored and recorded on a blockchain,
platforms.

Self-Sovereign each time a person wants to request

permission to use creative IP (music
diaOcean to launch a blockchain ad
transparency solution. AdLedger is a
Identity cont. in a TV commercial for example), a

smart contract could automatically
nonprofit research consortium made
up of leaders across the industry like
pay out the artist and grant permis- IAB and ComScore. Anheuser-Bus-
sion for the IP. Microsoft and Ubisoft ch announced a pilot this summer
are experimenting with blockchain to where it will be tracking ad units with
pay game developers. Custos Me- blockchain. Finally, startups like Kind
dia Technologies and Vaultitude are Ads, Brave browser, AdEx and MetaX
blockchain startups focused on an- are all making blockchain solutions for
ti-piracy solutions and IP protection. digital advertising.
Spotify acquired blockchain startup
MediaChain to build out its distrib- What’s Next
uted music rights and compensation
Self-sovereign identity will likely be
infrastructure.
adopted in phases. IBM and Microsoft
In the world of digital advertising, are piloting projects and startups
there has been a rallying cry from like UPort and Sovrin are making
advertisers and publishers for more headlines. Since interoperability is
transparency and accountability a defining feature of decentralized
across the industry. Currently, it is a identities, media companies should
defacto duopoly with Google and look for partners instead of attempt-
Facebook driving the market. Be- ing to launch an identity product on
tween the advertisers and their target their own.
audience, the publishers and their ad
dollars, there is a bevy of middlemen Watchlist
such as DSPs, SSPs, ad exchanges,
Po.et; IBM; Microsoft; UPort; Currency;
yield optimization tools and analytics
Ubisoft; Custos Media Technologies;
platforms. Blockchain could help track
Vaultitude; Spotify; Comcast; Media-
ads as they move through the eco-
Ocean; MetaX; AdEx; Kind Ads; Brave
system from advertiser to publisher
browser; Netflix; Google; Facebook.
to audience and prove if the end user
was an authentic click or a spam bot.
Comcast was one of the first large
media players to enter this space with
the Blockchain Insights Platform in
2017 and the Blockgraph product in
2018. IBM iX is partnering with Me-

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Distributed Computing
KEEP
For a Cause REVISIT
LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight not yet been launched, but the intent designed to focus on rendering com-
is to use the idle processor in you puter-generated images, DNA analy-
Key Insight: Distributed computing
phone to perform distributed com- sis, and machine learning. There are
is a process where large computer
puting calculations overnight to earn three roles in the ecosystem: provid-
problems are broken down into small-
the cryptocurrency Monero. Monero ers of resources, users of resources,
er segments that can be calculated on
will then be used to fund quality news and software developers. GridCoin
multiple regular computers, instead
organizations that the users select. is another blockchain-based distrib-
of on centralized super computers.
uted computing platform providing
Distributed computing technology Folding@home is a distributed com-
resources to philanthropic scientific
enables idle processor time on per- puting project for disease research
research.
sonal laptops, cell phones and other that was launched on October 1st,
The Golem.network is a distributed digital devices to become a valuable 2000. The project used idle process-
computing system that pools resourc- ing resources on personal comput- What’s Next
resource. Idle processor time then
es across many devices for shared becomes a valuable resource that ers, PlayStation 3s, and some Sony There will be an increasing number
projects and tasks. can be used to not only solve socially smartphones to for scientific research. of platforms that allow consumers to
important problems but the financial People donated their idle computer monetize their idle computer resourc-
incentives for using your idle process- processing time to the project. es. This will enable people to earn
ing time can be used to fund import- Golem.network is a platform that new income from resources that they
ant causes. proves that idle computer resourc- already own and are underutilized.
es are a valuable asset that can be For developers and people in need
Examples monetized. Golem is built upon the of computing resources, this will help
Ethereum blockchain where one can drive down prices for computing re-
Honeycomb is a cryptocurren-
rent out idle computing resources sources and increase the diversity of
cy-based project which crowdsourc-
like storage, processing power, or options available. This will reduce the
es unused phone power to support
bandwidth. The platform is currently costs of digital distribution of news
quality journalism. The platform has

TREND 039
Distributed and will facilitate donation of comput-

ing resources to social causes. Thus,
Computing For decreasing the financial burden of

information distribution and analysis
borne by news providers.
a Cause cont.
Watchlist
Honeycomb; Monero; Golem.network;
SONM; GridCoin; Microsoft; Intel; Ap-
ple; Android; Amazon Web Services;
every single wireless carrier.

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
For Distributed All computing resources can be Distributed computing technology New computer viruses highjack
shared and are automatically continues to advance but is only for our devices, which are put to work
Computing. load-balanced across resources. This specific use cases and for specific mining for cryptocurrencies without
significantly increases the global com- kinds of computing tasks, instead of our knowledge. Our devices leech
Distributed computing technology
puting resources available, improving all general computing tasks. Load and electricity and computing resources,
advances to the point of being just as
access and reducing costs for all. resource balancing continues to be causing us all headaches. We’ll see
efficient and fast as centralized com-
Excess capacity is used to solve social too complex to execute effectively repeats of what happened in May
puting—but is also able to leverage
problems, while access to information at scale and reliably. Customers that 2018, when a Russian government
idle computing resources in all kinds
and technology start to become a do not require stringent privacy or page was hacked and sent visitors
internet connected devices.
universal human right that is distribut- ownership rights—or who don’t care to a website that secretly installed
ed across the entire digital ecosystem. about bandwidth—are offered lower cryptocurrency mining software on
fees in exchange. The general public their computer. The frequency and
doesn’t see the point. pervasiveness of hijacking computing
resources becomes so great that the
general internet infrastructure be-
comes degraded and slows down as
the majority of resources are used for
mining cryptocurrencies.

BY AMY WEBB
SCENARIO
Gigware is on the horizon.

Imagine getting into bed tonight, docking your phone into its charger on your
nightstand like always. You set the alarm, and just before closing your eyes to
sleep, you start up a special app—one which invites hackers to take over your
phone. It isn’t a dream—but it isn’t a nightmare either. It’s the future of the gig
economy.
In the coming years, you’re going to hear a lot about our new decentralized
sharing economy. It’s a clever way of distributing computing power over a
wide network for a variety of tasks, which range from performing mathemat-
ical computations to mining for cryptocurrencies. All you need to get started
is to install what we call “gigware.” It’s a benevolent use for the same kind of
malware a hacker relies on to break into your computers and phones, except
that it generates a tangible benefit, whether you’re a company or individual
user. Think of it as the next evolution of the sharing economy powered by
artificial intelligence.
At the moment, there are nearly four billion internet users spread around the
world, and each of us owns three devices on average. That means there’s a
gigantic pool of processing power sitting dormant at any given time.
Gigware is like Airbnb for your computers and phones. It will someday allow
third-party businesses to use your smartphones and computers in exchange
for credits or real money you can spend elsewhere. Because the systems are
distributed and decentralized, private data is safeguarded.
Gigware could be an alternative to traditional news subscriptions. A media

organization might invite consumers to allow their mobile phones to be used
for complex calculations overnight, and in return they can earn credits to pay
for digital subscriptions to their favorite newspapers and magazines.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Decentralized Curation
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Examples tures like Reddit where the content is

crowd sourced and historical posts on
Cryptocurrencies and application Steemit is a blogging community like
the same topic are relevant. Crowd-
platforms can be a model for de- Reddit where users are rewarded for
sourced “truths” will evolve past
centralized curation. This is because creating, curating and interacting with
majority to rule into qualified majority
the platforms are exploring ways to content. Steemit uses a cryptocurren-
rule structures. Cryptographic digital
govern themselves, without having cy-based points system to facilitate
identities will increase in importance
a central authority or leader of the curation and engagement in content
as trust becomes dependent on the
collective group. As a result, self-gov- on the platform. Points are earned for
historical merits of individual user-
ernance and incentive structures from creating content, upvoting and com-
names/credentials.
blockchain/smart contract-based menting on other posts. Users build
Cryptocurrencies and application platforms create a proving ground for reputations allowing them to have
platforms can prove a model for
Watchlist
alternate forms editorial curation of more impact on curating the content.
decentralized curation/editorial of information that is more resilient to Reputations can be built organically Steemit; Decent; Ethereum; Reddit;
content. the interests of specific stakeholders. or bought. Points are issued in crypto- Twitter; YouTube;, Facebook; Word-
currency, which can then be convert- Press;Wix.com; Blogger; Tumblr; Quo-
Trust can be constructed using new
ed into dollars or other currencies. ra; and digital identity providers such
processes that are less reliant on cen-
as Oberthur Technologies, NetIQ,
tral entities. Cryptocurrency self-gov-
ernance technology additionally What’s Next Socure, Early Warning.
reduces the need for intermediaries You will begin to see users demand
and changes trust dynamics impact- that platforms place greater impor-
ing the role of distributors of informa- tance in trust and establishment of
tion and entities that edit and control credibility. As such it is likely to start
information. with content creators that are most
accustomed to forum or blog struc-

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
For Decentralized User generated content platforms Content from verified and authentic Information will become completely
create systems for self-regulation, sources are given increased impor- separated into that which is trust-
Curation establishing clear structures for in- tance on user generated platforms worthy (from a trustworthy source)
formation quality and transparency improving the trustworthiness of and information that is from an
End consumers will begin to demand
around conflicts of interest or intent. information. Verification is primarily unproven source. Entities that bestow
certain indicators of trustworthiness
In creating effective self-governance, driven by centralized entities resulting trustworthiness will control what
as readers become more attuned to
centralized entities that bestow au- in partial fragmentation of informa- type of information merits wider
clickbait, intentional interference and
thority become decentralized, paving tion with a greater importance on distribution and who is able to create
become skeptical of robot created
the way for freer transfer of informa- pay-to-play. This provides a signifi- content. This will effectively lay the
content specifically generated to
tion and reducing polarization and cant opportunity for players that have foundation for systematized global
influence them. In the next decade,
gamification of display algorithms. already established trust to become censorship and control of information
Facebook, Reddit, YouTube and other
Individual journalists begin to create leaders in transparency and impartial- and its distribution.
user generated content platforms will
their own brands and reputation and ity, ideally providing the opportunity
begin to create trusted authorities
generate followings that are less de- to explore new monetization schemes
and authenticate/validate content Probability
pendent on the platform or medium leveraging this trust.
that is on their platforms as they
that distributes their content. 30% because China is creating a
seek to continue to deliver news as a
precedent for others to put systems in
form of relevant, timely and engaging Probability place at national levels, thus frag-
content. User credentials will there- Probability 60% because the public and gov- menting information at global levels.
fore become increasingly important
10% because cryptocurrency pioneers ernment are both requesting greater
and begin to require their own risk
have yet to be proven. As such, until transparency and clarity from Face-
profiles based on historical data.
the principles are proven, platforms book and other content providers
with many users will be hesitant to try that seek to distribute news. There
such revolutionary change. will be increasing demand for editorial
functions within those platforms.

Interfaces
041 Voice Interfaces
042 Monetizing Chat-

Based Journalism
043 New Video

and Audio
Story Formats
TREND 041 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Voice Interfaces
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight teractions North Americans have with What’s Next

machines will be using their voices.
We are in an era of conversational Voice technology has proven it is
interfaces. You can be expected to Conversational interfaces can simu- commercially viable and will likely
talk to machines for the rest of your late the conversations that a reporter continue to experience significant
life. These systems use semantic and might have with her editor, as she growth in the coming years. The
natural language processing, along talks through the facts of a story. biggest threat to the expansion of
with our data, in order to anticipate IBM Watson’s various APIs, including this industry will come from govern-
what we want or need to do next. Debater, Visual Recognition, Alche- ment regulation and privacy concerns.
What’s new to consider for 2019: what myLanguage, Conversation and Tone In May 2018, the European Union’s
happens when voice interfaces start Analyzer can all be used to assist General Data Protection Regulation
Siri processes questions and requests to make up more and more of our reporters with their work. (GDPR) took effect, these regulations
using natural language processing. internet searches? As the Internet of Things (IoT) con- are designed to place restrictions on
tinues to develop and improve, the the data companies can obtain and
Examples number of devices people can com- use from consumers. The effect these
municate with will also increase. Voice rules will have on voice technology is
If you’ve ever used Siri, Google Now,
interfaces will allow more users to ask still unclear. There have already been
Amazon’s Alexa or even the mi-
about the weather, get assistance in numerous debates about whether
crophone button on your Comcast
making a grocery list, and have the Alexa and Google Home can meet
remote control, you’re familiar with
news played to them. In the work- GDPR compliance as they evolve.
voice interfaces. Soon, you will find
yourself talking to a host of con- place voice technology is being used We expect to see increased mon-
nected devices, such as your home in the form of personal assistants, etization of the voice ecosystem
thermostat, your car, your refrigerator, listening, transcribing and repeating either through subscription offerings,
your earbuds, even your connected information, and companies like IBM partnerships with voice providers, or
water bottle. By 2023, 50% of the in- are at the forefront of using APIs that through paid advertisements. CNBC
help analyze language and tone.

TREND 041
Voice Interfaces and other major networks are con-

sidering selling audio sponsorships
cont. (much like what we hear on podcasts)

based on the platform’s increased
popularity. Media companies and jour-
nalists should also take note: if Am-
azon and Google control the means
of our future conversations, how will
news and media brands be included
and prioritized?
Watchlist
Amazon; Google; Baidu; Tencent;
Apple; Alibaba; IBM Research; Face-
book; Stanford University; MIT CSAIL;
MIT Media Lab; University of Texas at
Austin.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Monetizing Chat-Based
Journalism REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight communication channel and transac- that will keep users engaged on the
tional channel into one. platform including enabling seamless
Communication and messaging plat-
Additionally, WeChat is developing actionability. This could allow more
forms are becoming the central hub
functionality that allows new moneti- people an avenue to discuss and
for social interactions including the
zation schemes for journalists. These perform actions all within the same
distribution of information and exe-
functionalities include the ability to channel, by making reservations,
cution of financial transactions. This
tip content creators and pay to read creating calendar events or executing
centralization of channels and access
functionality. These kinds of function- payments. We expect further consol-
to services creates an opportunity for
alities stimulate journalists to move idation of communication and trans-
new channels to reach readers that
from established newsrooms into action channels in the next decade as
have micropayment functionality en-
their own individual audiences and messaging platforms seek to absorb
WeChat is a popular social media app abled. In China, media organizations
followers. other disparate functions using chat
in China and a popular way to make are incentivizing their audiences to
as the center point of a convenience
payments. make micropayments for content. Other major platforms are also adding driven ecosystem. This creates the
payments functionality although opportunity for journalists to develop
Examples focusing initially on person-to-person one-to-one relationships with their
WeChat in China is the global mar- transactions. These platforms include readers and drive much more engage-
ketleader in incorporating value Facebook messenger, iMessage, ment and interaction at a level more
added services into its messaging Snapcash, Gmail, Google Assistant advanced than in the past. Using
platform. WeChat offers a wide range and WhatsApp. segmentation and extremely target-
of services and functionality but one ed content, organizations could offer
of its most interesting services is the What’s Next interactions on specific topics that are
ability to pay friends (person to per- Messaging platforms continue to seek timely, as well as contact with relevant
son) and pay merchants directly without new features and functionalities experts where the interaction and the
in the application, thereby merging a knowledge are paid for directly.

TREND 042
Monetizing Watchlist
Apple; Google; Amazon; Microsoft;
Chat-Based Facebook; PayPal; WeChat; WeMedia;
Weibo; Line; Alibaba; Venmo; Aliba-
Journalism ba; Mastercard; Visa; Citibank; BBVA;
Santander; ING; Slack; blogging plat-
cont. forms; Chinese internet authorities

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
Scenarios For Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing
Monetizing Chat in the Global standards are set, and features Regional players become market Chat ecosystems become increasingly
and functionality are enabled for chat leaders and take advantage of large fragmented as partners and players
Year 2029 across countries and borders. This network effects by adding features seek to build walls around the fea-
improves inclusivity and access for all. that are easiest to implement. A se- tures and functionality that they can
Chat programs become the browser
As platforms become multinational, lect few journalists attain a strong and provide. This results in platforms with
for our person-to-person interactions
we see less censorship. Algorithms large enough following to monetize functions that are only effective for
in the next decade. Global messaging
ensure that we view multiple sides of journalism without needing a larger specific situations. Divergent view-
platforms follow WeChat’s hub model
issues that are relevant at a local scale distribution or trust-enabling partner. points are marginalized.
and begin adding more and more
as well as issues that are relevant at
features. News becomes a key feature
a global scale. The platforms create a
of chat hubs that retain engagement. Probability Probability
strong demand for diverse journalism.
60% because this is the path of least 10% because walled gardens are hard
resistance. Partners will come to mes- to maintain, as we saw with BlackBer-
Probability saging platforms hoping for access ry Messenger. Network effects and
30% because local governments and to users. Content creators that have critical mass are needed for many
regulations will try to limit a single reached critical mass using existing financial models to work at scale and
entity having so much access over its platforms (newsrooms or record la- support small players. With no clear
communications, especially at a glob- bels) will seek to capture more of the platform to centralize around, people
al level. Journalists will be pushed into financial pie. will have to find other ways to central-
creating one-to-one relationships with ize and achieve efficiencies of scale.
their audiences in order to monetize
the content they create.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
New Video and Audio Story
Formats REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight for younger viewers. Last year the presumably to compete with rival
BBC released an audio play available Amazon’s robust video programming,
Capitalizing on the proliferation of
on Amazon’s Echo smart speaker in and major networks like ABC, Fox,
consumer tech featuring responsive
which the listener guides the narrative and CNN have dedicated digital chan-
visual, tactile and audio interfaces,
by speaking directly to the characters. nels for VR/360 video content span-
storytellers are developing uncon-
Meanwhile, companies like RYOT have ning news, sports, and entertainment.
ventional narratives to engage their
partnered with major news outlets As audiences flock to the new formats
audience in new ways. News media
including The New York Times and more often and in greater numbers,
and entertainment organizations have
NPR to produce immersive documen- brands at the forefront of this trend
begun exploring these innovative
tary video segments, viewable in VR, will be positioned to perform en-
modes of storytelling, with areas of
in which audiences can freely explore hanced data collection with which to
In interactive web series like That focus in personalization, interactivity
environments in 360 degrees. target advertising and personalize
Moment When, users determine the and immersion.
content.
actions of the main character, altering
What’s Next
the storyline in real time. Examples Watchlist
Currently these new storytelling
Pioneers in the storytelling space
formats are in an experimental phase, Eko; RYOT; BBC R&D; Spotify; Dolby;
are making use of advancements in
with consumers yet to fully embrace Melcher Media; Wolf 359; World Build-
audiovisual tech to create content
them, and companies yet to fully mas- ing Institute; Netflix; Magic Leap; Am-
that immerses the audience and
ter them. In the coming years, howev- azon; Google; Facebook; Nvidia; Sony;
elicits interaction. Production house
er, growth is expected in interactive Imax; Microsoft; Samsung; Qualcomm;
Eko creates interactive live-action
and immersive audio and video, with Intel; LG; Huawei; Zeiss; Xiaomi; HTC;
video content where the viewer taps
major media brands looking to stake Lenovo; HP; YouTube; Oculus.
or clicks to decide the protagonist’s
their claim in the space. Eko is build-
actions, and Netflix has introduced
ing a video platform for Walmart,
similar user-influenced programming

BY KRIFFY PEREZ
SCENARIO
Near-Future Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing
For Lip-Synched Videos Computer generated video standards CEOs already tend to read from Misinformation becomes rampant as
are created so viewers have a clear scripts that are heavily practiced and everyday people are unable to tell
AI can generate lip-synched video understanding of when “improved” or scrutinized. This would be an addi- what is real and what is not. Compet-
that is indistinguishable from the real “generated” video is being watched. tional tool that the communications itors intentionally misappropriate the
thing. Generative algorithms could be The generated and improved videos specialists could leverage. Only few likeness of managers and CEOs at
used to automatically create videos are used to communicate messages large players become adept at using other companies, as well as analysis
of CEOs reading their annual letters, more clearly and concisely at the level the technology and make personal- and investors, which splinters organi-
or for analysts to explain their latest that is most appropriate for the end ized messages a competitive advan- zations and countries and generally
findings. However, hackers could also consumer. All entities have access to tage to stimulate stock performance wreaks havoc around the world.
use this technology in real-time to ability and expertise, ensuring that and growth. It’s clear that those com-
manipulate company stock prices. there is no unfair advantage to any panies are using generated video—
specific entity. It saves time for CEOs however they make it impossible for
and leaders, who wouldn’t have sat smaller companies to use the same
through recording sessions. technology.

Teaching and Newsroom Training
044 Adaptive Learning

For Newsrooms
045 Nanodegrees For

Journalists
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Adaptive Learning For
Newsrooms REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight in. Adaptive learning uses the infor- Already being used in banking and
mation it collects on which wrong financial services, adaptive learning
An interactive teaching method pow-
answer was chosen to help dictate offers media organizations a new way
ered by artificial intelligence that can
where a student or employee needs to build capacity and expertise on a
be used by businesses and educa-
additional focus and either provides wide variety of subjects.
tional institutions to tailor curriculum
that insight or lets the relevant su-
for individuals based on correct and Professional development staff
pervisor know where the individual
incorrect responses to questions. For will need to be skilled and able to
needs personalized attention. In the
newsrooms wanting to provide specif- work with adaptive learning solu-
business setting, adaptive learning is
ic subject area training for reporters tion providers to develop and track
being used by employers in on-ramp-
and editors, this technology offers big career learning plans of employees.
ing and employee training sessions to
New adaptive learning systems are opportunities. The result will be a better-educat-
help hone specific skills and under-
being used for training. ed workforce combined with better
stand an individual’s specific strength
Examples and weakness. In a 2017 course on
informed management about the
specific strengths and weaknesses of
Imagine four different employees HarvardX (an open online platform)
their staff beyond the holistic level.
taking a multiple-choice quiz about students who were placed into the
Look to see adaptive learning used as
best practices for publishing breaking adaptive learning track outperformed
a tool by managers to pick people for
news. One employee gets the ques- the control group by 19% and across
projects based on identified strengths
tion right, and the other three get the different key metrics.
and weaknesses.
question wrong but all select three
different choices. Traditionally the What’s Next Watchlist
three who got the question wrong
In the constantly-evolving journalism
would not be treated any differently, NovoEd; Everwise; HarvardX; Pearson;
industry having a highly skilled team
a wrong answer is a wrong answer. Dreambox; IBM; Microsoft; Knewton;
is essential to survival, and compa-
That’s where Adaptive Learning steps Axonify; Qstream; Intrepid; Geekie
nies have begun to fully embrace this.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Nanodegrees For Journalists
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight Pennsylvania, and numerous other and hiring staff at major companies.
courses created by institutions such As large corporations partner with
An alternative to traditional two or
as Michigan State University, Wes- nanodegree providers like Udacity,
four year degree programs, Nano-
leyan University, and Duke University those certifications will gain more ac-
degrees traditionally offered online,
to name a few. Udacity, one of the ceptance in the mainstream. Another
involve studying a specific topic area
most popular nanodegree platforms, key factor is the rising cost of educa-
or industry with the goal of increased
now counts more than 50,000 stu- tion and crushing student loan debt.
knowledge in the area and some form
dents enrolled in various programs It is unlikely the current congress will
of certification of completion. Nano-
that take approximately 6-12 months pursue legislation that significantly
degrees are an opportunity for univer-
to complete. These programs are eases the debt burden on students.
sities to offer more specific learning
either billed per term or as a monthly The rising cost of education could
Udacity offers nanodegrees in myriad opportunities for those working in
subscription. The degree offerings force the hands of students to seek
fields. media.
currently tend to be clustered around nanodegrees in place of a traditional
technology and topics vary from four-year degree.
Examples becoming a data scientist, learning
Nanodegrees are being pursued by developer skills, to digital marketing. Watchlist
individuals looking to receive a cer-
Udacity; Google; Amazon; Coursea;
tified understanding of a topic while What’s Next altMBA; Stanford; Harvard; AT&T;
avoiding more expensive and time
While nanodegree programs are Coursea; Duke; Michigan State; Uni-
consuming traditional programs or
likely here to stay for the foreseeable versity of Pennsylvania; Wesleyan
to simply gain a greater understand-
future, their widespread adoption will
ing of a topic area. Platforms such
hinge on a couple of different factors.
as Coursera offer journalism specific
The most significant hurdle is aware-
courses such as ‘English for Jour-
ness and consideration amongst HR
nalism’ created by the University of

Publishing and Distribution
046 Web 3.0 052 Abusing The

Notification Layer
047 Proximity News
and Information 053 Journalism as a
Service (JaaS)
048 Digital Frailty
054 Transparency in
049 The Case For Radical Metrics
Transparency
055 Real-Time Fact
050 Pop-Up Newsrooms Checking
and Limited-Edition
News Products 056 Offline Connections
051 One-To-Few 057 Audio Search Engines

Publishing
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Web 3.0
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight massive collaboration on a larger is a peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol

scale and usher in Web 3.0. that facilitates decentralized file shar-
The internet is always evolving. Up
ing and cloud computing.
until today, it has seen three major With Web 3.0, collaboration and de-
waves of innovation. Web 1.0, the centralized creation is accelerated for All this is possible because blockchain
beginning of the internet age, intro- two reasons. First, gathering, mining, technology enables something called
duced static web pages, e-commerce and understanding unstructured data the “fat protocol layer.” Web protocol
and email. The Web 2.0 enabled will be much easier with advanced layer is part of the full internet stack.
decentralized collaboration and cre- techniques such as data mining, nat- “Full stack” refers to every stage of
ativity by ushering in social networks, ural language processing (NLP), and the computer programming/ web
sharing economies, cloud computing text analytics. Second, machines can developers tool kit: front end (UX,
LA-based Otoy launched RNDR, and dynamic self-sustaining con- collaborate directly with one another design, HTML, Java, CSS) to back end
which uses cloud, blockchain, and tent repositories like Wikipedia and through artificial intelligence and ma- (servers, databases, APIs, Python,
cryptocurrency technologies to Github. Some collaborations have chine learning. Eventually, machines Ruby). The internet stack has applica-
quickly render images for the every- pushed our imagination beyond what will be able to teach one another. tion layers and protocol layers.
day content creator. we thought was possible, like Reddit’s There are already projects like this In Web 2.0, most of the value cap-
April Fools Day 2017 experiment or underway. In media, Otoy is lowering tured was in the application layer with
Google’s 6 month Quick Draw Doo- 3D/ visual effects production costs by little variability in the protocol layer.
dling game., creating a decentralized, distributed Examples of the most common proto-
Just as cloud computing revolution- network of partners that can chip in cols are HTTP used by browsers and
ized how businesses manage and spare processing power with RNDR SMTP and IMAP is used by email-cli-
store information, blockchain will tokens. Cellarius is a user-generat- ents.
usher in a new wave of innovation for ed, transmedia franchise curated by
information technology and databas- artists and audiences through block- Examples
es. Distributed ledgers can encourage chain. The Interplanetary File System
In Web 3.0, protocols and platforms

TREND 046
Web 3.0 cont. may have much more potential for

value creation, hence a larger proto-
col layer. Companies like Blockstack,
Lightning Labs, and RSK are building
layer 2 networking products. What
does this mean for media compa-
nies? With Web 3.0, web browsers
and mobile applications can perform
more complex processes and enable
transactions that were previously not
possible. On Web 3.0, media compa-
nies might be able to set up micro-
payment systems or enable users to
have more control over their privacy
and data.
What’s Next
It is still really early days for Web 3.0
applications. Media companies should
wait to see how this trend develops—
but they should still be tracking this
trend.
Watchlist
Blockstack; Lightning Labs; RSK

TREND 047 • SIXTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Proximity News
and Information REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight heim uses beacons to help attendees media organizations to pinpoint their
learn about exhibits. Beacons are content geographically for consumers.
New technologies can be pro-
widely used in infrastructure and pub-
grammed to push or receive infor-
lic transit systems. Some researchers Watchlist
mation to/ from our devices—and
estimate that 5 million new beacons
also our bodies—tethering us to an Alphabet’s Eddystone; Apple’s iBea-
will be installed around the U.S., for
always-on information network. con; Estimote; Kontakt.io; Gimbal;
various purposes, during 2018.
BlueCats; Gelo; BLIP Systems; Blue
Examples Beyond Bluetooth, content produc- Sense Networks; Glimworm Beacon;
The PulsePoint app uses proximity to ers can now create geofences within Sensorberg GmbH; Accent Advanced
In the late 1980s, Ericsson Mobile ex-
help connect CPR-trained bystanders mobile apps to push notifications. For Systems; Aruba; Amazon; Qualcomm;
perimented with short-link radio tech-
with people having a health crisis. example, CPR-trained bystanders can PayPal; Polytechnical University
nology, but it would take a decade for
receive an alert from the PulsePoint (China); MIT; University of New South
mobile service providers to create the
app if someone nearby is in need Wales (Australia); Oxford University;
industry standard known as Bluetooth
of help. PulsePoint also helps peo- National Emergency Address Data-
today. Our current Bluetooth stan-
ple find the nearest AED in times of base.
dard was developed for the internet
emergency.
of things—which is why you’re hearing
so much about beacons, which are
What’s Next
tiny devices that broadcast a signal
and trigger actions based on proxim- We anticipate that our personal data,
ity. Target has outfitted hundreds of combined with data from everyday
its stores with beacons, which track items in the physical world, will entice
consumers as they move around var- developers to build new uses for am-
ious parts of the store. The Guggen- bient proximity in the coming years.
This means a coming opportunity for

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Digital Frailty
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight digital-only content published by the weren’t covered by any other media
Voice could soon be gone forever. outlet. It included a series of videos,
In the past three years, we’ve seen the
maps, interactive elements, a forum
first widespread cases of important The Voice is just the latest entry on a
for residents—and since it only existed
journalism being erased from the web long list of news organizations that no
as a website, there was no other way
because of media consolidation or longer exist. A Pulitzer Prize-winning
to see the stories. When Microsoft
because sites were no longer being investigative series about a collision
pulled out of its joint venture with
maintained. Digital Frailty is the phe- that killed 20 children and devastated
NBC, the project went offline.
nomenon in which those digital assets a Colorado community went offline
published to a news organization’s when the Rocky Mountain News went
website are impermanent or easily out of business. The Tampa Tribune, Digital Frailty and
The Village Voice closed after a long broken. whose motto was “Life. Printed Daily,” Personal Accountability
and storied history of award-winning kept its rival, The Tribune, hunting
Perhaps not every Facebook post
investigative reporting. What will Digital Frailty in the News for important stories in the public
should be saved in perpetuity, but
become of its digital archive is still interest, covering investigations into
The Village Voice closed after a long might we need to look back on this
unknown. Tampa’s judges, legislators and law
and storied history of award-winning moment in time and reflect on how
enforcement.
investigative reporting. When inves- our language—how the very way we
tor Peter Barbey bought the Voice in Humanity operates on a continuum. communicate—was shaped by our
2015, he promised it would “survive After devastating Texas, Hurricane Instas, our Snaps, and our tweets?
and prosper.” Barbey closed the print Harvey made landfall near New Orle- Will our future historians look back,
edition two years later, and in Au- ans on the 12th anniversary of Katrina. marveling at the amount of anthropo-
gust 2018 he closed its doors entire- Rising From Ruin, an award-winning logical data we were simultaneously
ly. There were no plans to preserve project by MSNBC, told the Katrina’s creating—and destroying? If this past
its digital archive, which means the aftermath through the lenses of two election season taught us anything,
small communities in Mississippi that it’s that Twitter helped to shape pub-

TREND 048
Digital Frailty lic opinion and the outcome of the

election, even as many controversial
What’s Next Watchlist
Digital frailty is a phenomenon af- Axel Springer; Yahoo; Tumblr; Hearst
cont. tweets posted by candidates running
for office, were deleted by their cam-
fecting journalists everywhere. Digital Corporation; Time Inc; Yomiuri Shim-
frailty isn’t just about falling revenue— bun Holdings; Tronc; Gannett; Via-
paigns.
sometimes, new technology obviates com; Hubert Burda Media; Comcast;
the old, before anyone’s had a chance Alphabet; Asahi Shimbun Company;
Digital Frailty in to convert files or develop archives. Microsoft; Grupo Globo; Advance
Government and Public News executive Mario Tedeschini-Lal- Publications; News Corp; Univision;
Information li explains how Italy’s largest news Baidu; Bertelsmann; Twitter; Snap; In-
Under the Trump Administration, the website, Repubblica.it, didn’t original- stagram; General Electric; Bloomberg;
U.S. government agencies removed ly use a content management system. Disney; Amazon; AT&T; Verizon; ESPN;
studies, data and reports throughout When the site installed a CMS for Netflix; Hulu; The Onion; PRX; PRI;
2016, 2017 and 2018. Most notably, the first time, everything published Internet Archive; news organizations
the Environmental Protection Agen- before it was lost forever. Tedeschi- everywhere.
cy scrubbed its website of climate ni-Lalli, along with colleagues Nicolas
change information. This was an effort Kayser-Bril, Anne-Lise Bouyer, Pierre
to support the Trump Administration’s Romera and Defne Altiok, launched
ideas and policies. A government the Offshore Journalism Project—
website built to educate children, they hope to preserve national and
called “Energy Kids,” also scrubbed private archives and ensure that
mentions of climate change. The quality journalism lives on, even if
Trump Administration also removed political appointees and governments
LGBTQ content from federal web- disagree. While some content can be
The EPA scrubbed its educators web- retrieved via the Internet Archive, it
sites, scrubbed a lot of civil rights
site of climate change information. is only taking snapshots of content
information off of WhiteHouse.gov
and scrubbed the HHS.gov website of at a time. Libraries archive printed
healthcare data. Federal agencies in- material, but there is no central re-
structed staff and grant recipients to pository for all of the digital content
avoid using certain phrases—“trans- we are now producing. Perhaps we
gender,” “fetus,” “science-based,” don’t need to save every listicle and
“evidence-based,”—citing concerns by quiz. What will a future society look
the Trump Administration. like if our current media landscape
goes dark? Do we have an obligation
to preserve the digital conversa-
tions shaping society? Should we be
working harder to ensure that digital
archives aren’t lost?

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
The Case For Radical
Transparency REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight instantly politicized—many people ar- influenced that work. His research has
gued on social media that it was “fake inspired others to use similar network
Cambridge Analytica, the influence
news” made up by journalists. analysis, historical data and machine
Russia peddled during U.S. elections,
learning to look for similarities in liter-
and the continued spread of misinfor-
What’s Next ature, writing and news. A system like
mation are making a strong case for
this could be deployed to look for ex-
radical transparency. The only way to combat misinforma-
plicit and hidden influencers on news
tion is to make the newsgathering
stories. Now that news organizations
Examples process completely transparent. Just
are relying on data, algorithms, and
as consumers expect to see a byline
In 2018, the U.S. Immigration and machine learning for various aspects
on stories, because it creates a chain
Customs Enforcement Agency was of news gathering and publishing,
Donald Trump has repeatedly made of accountability, they will soon ex-
discovered modifying a piece of they should commit to radical trans-
dangerous accusations that journal- pect to know how stories were built.
software (its “Risk Classification parency.
ists publish what he calls “fake news.” Reporters aided and augmented by
Assessment” tool) they use to deter-
smart systems should explain what
mine whether an immigrant should
data sets and tools they used. Mean- Watchlist
be detained or released on bond. The
while, stories that were written in News organizations everywhere.
agency decided to remove the “re-
part or entirely by computers should
lease” recommendation, but it didn’t
reflect that an algorithm was respon-
disclose to the public that ICE had
sible for the piece of content being
altered the tool. It was yet another
read/ watched.
example of data and algorithms being
used in ways that intentionally hid the Professor Ahmed Elgammal at Rut-
whole truth from journalists. When gers University has developed an
this story did finally come out, it was algorithm that looks for novelty in
paintings and analyzes which artists

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Pop-Up Newsrooms and
Limited-Edition News REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
Products
WATCH
Key Insight work that encourages both editorial opportunities, as they are vehicles for
and technological innovation. data collection and targeted adver-
Some organizations have begun to
Meanwhile, news organizations are tising.
experiment with pop-up newsrooms
for specific projects and with tempo- creating limited-edition news prod-
ucts that don’t require labor-intensive, Watchlist
rary products: limited-run newsletters,
podcasts that only last a set number one-off templates and workflows. News organizations everywhere.
of episodes, live SMS offerings that Whether it’s a planned news event
happen only during events. (such as local elections, festivals or
races), an annual conference (ONA,
Examples SXSW, PopTech), a season (skiing,
football, baseball), or a big story that
A sign from the recent Pop-Up News- During Sweden’s 2018 election, more
has a defined beginning middle and
room Riksdagsvalet. than a hundred journalists gathered
end (such as a weather event), limit-
together to create Pop-Up Newsroom
ed-edition news products are starting
Riksdagsvalet – a temporary news-
to be used by news organizations.
room designed to curb misinforma-
tion in the final days before voting.
What’s Next
It was staffed by the next generation
of Sweden’s journalists from three We anticipate seeing more popup
prestigious journalism schools. It was newsrooms, temporary podcasts,
an extension of Pop-Up Newsroom, a newsletters and chatbots that are de-
joint initiative from Meedan and Dig ployed specifically for just one event.
Deeper Media, launched in June 2017 Limited-edition news products are
with the aim of setting up a frame- revenue and audience engagement

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
One-To-Few Publishing
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

Newsletters, podcasts and niche net- Suddenly, it seems like everyone— We anticipate seeing more and more
works that captivate smaller audienc- from world leaders, to your next-door niche networks launch, whether they
es made a huge comeback. What’s neighbor—has a podcast or news- are individual newsletters or podcasts.
next is an expansion to capture even letter. The newest platforms allow But we’re also expecting to see more
more niche audiences. content creators to build in a paid mixed reality applications and shows
subscription model, and early indi- intended for small audiences. There is
cations are that people are willing to an opportunity here for media com-
pay. Revue and Substack both offer panies of all sizes to earn revenue at
tools to launch a subscription news- scale from a series of small audiences.
The Latinx Collective is a newsletter letter: software, analytics, payments
published on Revue. service and templates. Meanwhile, Watchlist
RadioPublic guarantees payments
RadioPublic; Substack; Revue; PRX;
to its podcasters. It bookends ads on
TinyLetter; Mailchimp; Skype; Garage
each episode, and RadioPublic pays
Band; SoundCloud; Libsyn; Stitcher;
podcasters for every listen at an av-
Auphonic; SpeakPipe; Twilio; PRI.
erage rate of $20 CPM, regardless of
the show’s audience size.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Abusing The Notification
Layer REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH

Notifications show bits of information, Notifications are particularly attrac- The problem is that notifications now
including updates, reminders and tive to news organizations because come from everywhere—from the
messages from friends. They appear they capture attention when our OS, government emergency services,
on the lock screens of mobile phones, attention is most vulnerable. Lever- weather apps, games, social networks,
wearables and connected devices. aging our FOMO, notifications tempt podcasts, and more. Notifications
us to look at our screens and to click with photos and emoji perform better,
through. Users who opt-in to receive which is a show of how cluttered the
push notifications increase app reten- space has become. News organiza-
tion rates by 2x or more, while opt-in tions will need to develop new tactics
Notifications are a constant distrac- users are twice as likely to engage and strategies to ensure that their
tion for people who wear smart- with the content teased. Most major notifications don’t add to the existing
watches. news organizations, as well as con- notification layer of clutter—and so
tent-creators from other sectors, are they do not alienate readers.
now engaging notifications to pull
users into content. Watchlist
News organizations everywhere; An-
droid; Apple; Amazon; Microsoft.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Journalism as a Service
(JaaS) REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight down the principal means that debt— and the like. Services work outside of
that problem—sticks around longer. the social media landscape, relieving
On the fringes, news organizations
It doesn’t ever go away. Transitioning news organizations of revenue sharing
are beginning to provide journalism as
to “Journalism as a Service” enables and allowing them to fully monetize
a service, rather than traditional news
news organizations to fully realize their services.
products.
their value to everyone working in the
knowledge economy—universities, Watchlist
Examples legal startups, data science compa-
PRX; Twilio; REDEF Group; The Infor-
“Software as a Service” is a licensing nies, businesses, hospitals, and even
mation; The Coral Project; MIT Media
and delivery model, where users pay big tech giants. News organizations
Lab; ProPublica.
for on-demand access. It’s a model that archive their content are sitting
Twilio is a service helping to connect that in the near-future might be an on an enormous corpus—data that
and distribute content to consumers. inevitability. The central challenge can be structured, cleaned and used
within news organizations is that by numerous other groups.
there are immediate, acute prob-
lems—but reasonable solutions will re- What’s Next
quire long-term investment in energy
News deployed as a service includes
and capital. The tension between the
different kinds of parcels: news sto-
two always results in short-term fixes,
ries; APIs; databases that can be used
like swapping out micro-paywalls for
by both the newsroom and paying
site-wide paywalls. In a sense, this is
third parties; calendar plug-ins for up-
analogous to making interest-only
coming news events; systems that can
payments on a loan, without paying
automatically generate reports using
down the principal. Failing to pay
the news org’s archives and databases

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Transparency in Metrics
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight site’s “Trending Topics” area. During they, themselves, cannot verify. Any-
the summer of 2017, Facebook offered one creating content needs to under-
Social networks are under pressure
new landing page views and page stand the ebb and flow of traffic and
to offer more transparency in the
interaction metrics, which the compa- how one piece of content fits into the
numbers they report back to news
ny said would offer better insights for broader scope of the organization.
organizations. While most companies
advertisers. We also expect to see news and other
that publish content on the web are
It goes without saying that metrics content as organizations develop
obsessed with metrics, historically
can influence editorial and business new models to bring transparency in
they’ve kept audience data hidden
decisions, not to mention how the metrics to staff—without jeopardizing
Chartbeat is a popular metrics tool from staff.
public interprets the popularity of a editorial integrity.
used in newsrooms.
Examples story. Most large news organizations
Watchlist
have hired audience engagement and
Metrics are neither easy to find nor
analytics managers as go-betweens. Nielsen; Chartbeat; YouTube; Google;
easy to understand for many working
Instagram; Snap; Facebook; Twitter;
inside of content organizations. Face-
What’s Next news organizations everywhere.
book has apologized for displaying
incorrect numbers of video plays to Now that Facebook has announced
advertisers and publishers, and said it’s weighing personal posts over news
that it had been showing incorrect stories from publishers, and Google is
metrics for two years as it attempted launching a native ad-blocking client
to challenge YouTube. Earlier in the in Chrome, everyone in the digital
year, current and former Facebook marketing and advertising space is
staff alleged they were instructed to wondering what’s next for metrics. Al-
suppress conservative news from the ready, publishers and advertisers will
question the validity of metrics that

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Real-Time Fact Checking
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist

Buoyed by charges of “fake news,” In a few years, AI systems will enable IBM Watson; Tencent; Baidu; Google;
real-time fact-checking—powered by more sophisticated fact checking: ex- Amazon; Facebook; Twitter; news
both people and algorithm—will be a plaining whether information was tak- organizations everywhere.
priority for journalists now and in the en out of context, or exaggerated, or
near future. downplayed. Soon, we might be able
to fact-check statements with the
Examples help of Augmented Reality. For exam-
ple, during speeches and hearings, an
Digital tools have made it easy to
AR app could show the relationship
report on a live event and publish in
In a few years, AI systems will enable a person has to various funders and
real time, but adding context—such as
more sophisticated fact checking. lobbyists every time they speak.
whether or not a source’s statement
is factually accurate—usually happens News organizations have a tremen-
after. Late in 2016, Google introduced dous opportunity to use AR and AI
a fact-check tag to its Google News along with social media data and their
service—readers can see fact checks own article databases, to build tools
next to trending stories. As we now for real-time fact checking, adding a
see on a near-daily basis, inaccuracies critical editorial layer that’s both good
and falsehoods quickly spread on so- for the public interest and good for
cial media masquerading as the truth. building brand reputation.
At least when it comes to citing num-
bers and data, artificial intelligence
will soon allow news organizations to
automate the fact checking process.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Offline Connections
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

As consumers shift to their mobile In the U.S., consumers now spend an Until news consumers have ubiqui-
devices, developers are making sure average of five hours a day on their tous access to cheap, fast data, offline
their apps work offline.   mobile devices. As consumers move reading will be a necessity. News
about our days—commuting, walking organizations that include seamless,
around the office, or sitting through offline experiences will find sticker
a Little League game—they still find audiences.
themselves offline. Netflix, YouTube
and Amazon Prime now feature Watchlist
offline viewing, allowing consumers
Tencent; Baidu; Google Play; Pocket;
to temporarily download videos to
Netflix now allows users to watch Amazon; news organizations every-
watch at their leisure.
videos offline. where.
A number of news aggregators—in-
cluding Google, Smartnews and
Apple—want to capitalize on the time
consumers devote to their screens,
even when the WiFi signal is weak.
The Washington Post’s progressive
web app cuts mobile page load times
from 4 seconds to 80 milliseconds
and allows consumers to read news
stories without a data or WiFi con-
nection.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Audio Search Engines
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight content. Better than buttons, con- What’s Next

sumers can also speak their searches
As news organizations venture into We’re starting to see novel attacks
to a voice assistant and immediately
podcasts, new search tools allow the against speech recognition AIs.
get to the podcast they were trying
newsroom—as well as news consum- Attacks can trick speech recognition
to remember, to replay a news report
ers—to find exactly what information systems into recognizing a synthetic
they’d heard in the car, or to get a
they’re looking for within audio-only voice, or sounds that are impercepti-
series of clips related to a subject
content. However we’re also finding ble to human ears, or even common
they’re interested in.
that speech recognition is vulnerable ambient noises in our homes (like the
to new kinds of adversarial attacks. Startup Audioburst uses artificial phone ringing). Any of these audio
intelligence to index audio broadcasts cues can trigger a smart system to
Audio search engines offer another Examples and make them easier for consum- do something we don’t want, like
ers to find. Rather than searching for make a purchase, or crank the volume
way to find content. While developers have learned how
keywords, Audioburst uses natural up to the maximum level. With our
to quickly index and display web
language processing to automatical- increased reliance on audio search,
content, digital audio has always
ly discover the meaning conveyed we’ll need to be more vigilant tracking
remained an unsolved challenge. Now,
and to surface the right content. For possible vulnerabilities.
rather than searching for a topic and
example, if a consumer wants an
getting a bunch of hyperlinks to click
through and listen to, consumers will
update on the election, she can ask a Watchlist
voice-activated app (Amazon’s Alexa,
instead receive a series of buttons Audioburst; Amazon; Google; Apple;
Google Home), which will sift through
that play the exact snippet of audio Advanced Media; Viacom.
audio information and deliver a set of
that’s related to their search. Spotify
clips.
recently enabled audio search for its

Mixed Reality and Video
058 Streamers 065 Augmented Reality
059 Connected TVs 066 AR Face Filters to

Protect Individual’s
060 WebRTC identity
061 Streaming Social 067 AR as a Tool to

Video Enhance Print
062 Degree Video 068 Mixed Reality

Arcades
063 Holograms
069 VR For Marketing
064 Virtual Reality
TRENDS 058 - 062 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Video
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight television services. A recent survey Impact on media organizations

from Deloitte paints an even worse Streaming services will erode lo-
U.S. adults now spend close to an
picture for traditional cable and cal broadcast news markets. These
hour a day watching online video,
satellite providers. The two leading services will also disrupt longer-form
and increasingly we’re using our mo-
reasons individuals kept paying for television news broadcasts.
bile phones to access that content.
television were the ability to watch
But not all adults prefer video. A Pew
live events and affordable cable along 059
Research Center survey found that
with internet bundles. These two
more Americans prefer to watch their Connected TVs
factors do not represent a sustain-
news (46%) than to read it (35%) or TVs that connect to the internet
able advantage for traditional cable
listen to it (17%). But the demograph- certainly aren’t new. What’s changed
and satellite providers. Affordable
Streaming services will erode local ics might surprise you: Americans is penetration in average households
internet is available worldwide and
broadcast news markets. age 50 or older prefer video, while and the availability of streaming apps
prices should only continue to fall,
the majority of 18 to 29-year-olds that bypass the standard list of cable
and successful livestreaming of sports
(42%) prefer reading the news. and public broadcasting channels,
(either through the league or a social
media provider) worldwide serves as such as Amazon Prime Video, Roku,
058 an effective test case that live events Hulu, YouTube, Showtime Anytime,
Streamers can be successfully streamed through iPlayer (UK-only), All 4 (UK only),
other platforms. We expect to see the Playstation Now, HBO Now, Direct
The 4th quarter of 2017 saw over
continued rise in sales of devices such Now, iTunes, and of course, Netflix.
500,000 customers abandon their
cable and satellite television pack- as the Amazon Fire Stick, Google Impact on news organizations
ages. Best estimates show that Chromecast, and Roku, with a steady
Media organizations can take advan-
approximately 13.5 million homes do deterioration in cable and satellite
tage of connected TVs, offering richer
not currently subscribe to traditional subscriptions over the next couple of
content to maintain and grow audi-
years.
ence.

Impact on news organizations TV, and YouTube Live Streaming, look mersive journalism continue. Schools
Video cont. For news organizations, this means to see news providers and the media such as Columbia University and the
that rather than bridging comput- increasingly providing around the University of Southern California are
ers to networks, which must route clock coverage of main events. What including 360-degree and VR based
and relay information along various will be interesting to see is whether journalism in their curriculum. The
channels, WebRTC and similar peer- companies institute paywalls for their next generation of upcoming jour-
to-peer technologies could help content or use advertising to attempt nalists will be better versed into how
computers talk to each other without to generate revenue. This also means to incorporate 360-degree and VR
obstruction. This may seem like a that for the first time in history, no based approaches into both break-
subtle change in Internet architecture, technical knowledge or specialty ing news and longer form videos.
but consider the implications: you equipment is required to broadcast Both 360-degree and VR video have
would no longer need a third-party the news. As a result, we are seeing the potential to enhance the user’s
operator, like Skype, to videoconfer- a number of newsworthy events now experience in two distinct but import-
ence with a friend—or to broadcast appearing, completely unfiltered, ant ways. In the context of breaking
live news to consumers. Videos would across social media channels: funerals, news, 360-degree video lets the user
A man holds a 360-degree camera. load and play faster and would have arrests, political rallies, conference capture the full scene of the ongo-
no need to buffer. speeches, encounters with public ing event and not just the view the
officials. person behind the camera shows
you. In longer form videos, 360-de-
060 061 Impact on news organizations
gree videos can be used to allow
WebRTC Streaming Social Video While everyone can stream—and the viewer to become an interactive
news organizations now have access detective looking for clues from the
WebRTC is the real-time communica- You have likely already seen live
to that content—we must ask whether scene of a crime, or to tour the site
tions technology supported by Goo- coverage of breaking events through
everything should be broadcast. News of an area ravaged by a hurricane.
gle, Mozilla and Opera, and it powers Facebook Live, Twitter, YouTube or
organizations need a framework to 360-degree video has the potential
Google Hangouts. WebRTC can be Instagram livestream. According to
determining whether rebroadcast- to keep viewers increasingly engaged
used to connect your smartphone to Cisco, more than 13% of the video
ing a murder, suicide or violent act in a time where user’s attention spans
the articles you’re reading on your watched daily is live content, and that
streamed via social video is in the are seemingly at an all-time low.
desktop or tablet, displaying different number is continuously growing. Less
publics interest.
components depending on what of- than a month after launching its 24-
fers the best user experience. If a vid- hour news service TicToc, Bloomberg
eo won’t display well on your current was reporting greater than 750,000 062
device, you could be offered a differ- daily viewers. With people increasing- 360-Degree Video
ent version automatically. Because ly watching content on their phones
Many news outlets such as the New
WebRTC works from the browser, it’s and computer screens, the desire to
York Times, CNN, Washington Post,
also part of one of the other trends get information live, the low barrier of
and Associated Press have begun us-
we’re continuing to watch: connected entry to streaming live, and platforms
ing 360-degree video, and we expect
machines. such as Facebook Watch, Instagram
to see the trend towards further im-

BY AMY WEBB
NEAR-FUTURE SCENARIO
We Were Wrong About Social Isolationism.

The idea that in we’d all be sitting alone in our homes, interacting via digital
avatars as we completely lost touch with the outside world, turned out to be
completely wrong. Instead, new platforms and hardware gave us fun ways to
socialize in person. We’re spending more time in mixed reality movie theaters,
which offer immersive entertainment. There are now mixed reality arcades ev-
erywhere. It’s the 1980s all over again, but with a twist: MR games, experienc-
es, and meeting rooms are affordable, and they’re also accessible for those
with hearing and visual impairments. We’re going to silent discos, where we
wear color-coded wireless headsets connected to our favorite DJ’s spinning
all night long. Now everyone can dance together, in one shared experience,
even if they hate each other’s taste in music. We’re more connected to each
other—and to the real world—than we ever imagined.

TRENDS 063 - 067 • SIXTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Mixed Reality
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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Key Insight What You Need To Know goods from across the world into our
households and workplaces, we will
Mixed Reality (MR), also referred to About MR
now begin to marvel at the ability of
as Extended Reality (XR), combines AR, VR, 360-degree video and holo- MR to transport and immerse us in
the physical and digital realms and grams have been part of our cultural distant environments without ever
encompasses a number of technolo- consciousness for many years now leaving our everyday surroundings.
gies: augmented reality (AR), virtual but have yet to establish themselves This presents a major opportunity
reality (VR), 360-degree video and as indispensable, ubiquitous technol- for news organizations to provide
holograms. These technologies can ogies. This coming year however, as transformational experiences for
be used by all media and journalists the makers of MR devices including their audience, transporting them to
as a way of enhancing or improving Head Mounted Displays and holo- otherwise unreachable sites from the
VR is experienced wearing a pair of storytelling. gram projectors are able to decrease outer reaches of space to the inner
goggles and a connected earpiece. costs and improve ease of use, we workings of the human body. Here is
will see more devices being made a prioritized summary, based on our
available to the average consumer, research and analysis, of how news
and a subsequent increase in the organizations should invest their time
number of news and entertainment and money with regard to MR.
firms developing content and experi-
ences for the platforms. 063
One of the most remarkable phenom- Holograms
ena enabled by MR is the globaliza-
Professional camera brand Red has
tion of experience—where we once
sold out pre-orders and pushed back
were awestruck at the ability of the
the release of their highly anticipat-
internet to bring media, culture, and
ed hologram-generating Hydrogen

phone, but with a price tag over a 064

Mixed Reality thousand dollars the device will likely
Virtual Reality
only attract serious tech enthusiasts
cont. for the time being. A second gener- Virtual Reality (VR) is a computer
ation of Microsoft’s HoloLens Mixed simulated environment. As a teth-
Reality headset, touting a lower price ered experience, VR is experienced
point, lighter weight construction, wearing a pair of goggles, and it can
and greater ease of wear, is slated stimulate sensations of being phys-
for launch in early 2019. In the en- ically present in the scenes a user is
tertainment space, startup Eyellu- viewing. VR can be experienced un-
sion recently raised a seed round of tethered as well, by slipping a mobile
funding to grow their business, which phone into a special mask. Because
produces concert tours featuring the technology is in its early stages,
holographic versions of famous late with relatively little content available
musicians backed by live performers. beyond gaming, the relative value of
In an industrial setting, hologram can VR HMDs isn’t yet attractive for aver-
be used by designers or engineers to age consumers.
save on training costs and give em- Bottom Line
ployees a truly immersive experience
The VR marketplace isn’t mature
in their projects. There are numerous
enough for widespread adoption,
companies such as Realfiction, Look-
and because VR content produc-
ing Glass Factory, Dell, and Google
tion requires the creation of entire
who are betting that companies and
environments, cost-effective oppor-
individuals will be interested in holo-
Smart glasses will soon bring AR to tunities for news organizations are
gram based technologies.
everyday people. limited. Progress in entertainment and
Bottom Line gaming applications of VR may pave
Due to high costs and limited appli- the way for future adoption by other
cations, hologram devices for indi- industries.
viduals are likely to be rolled out in
professional contexts before becom-
ing popular for personal use, at which
point news organizations may want to
consider producing custom content
for holographic platforms. Holograph-
ic projections intended for public
consumption are currently best suited
for entertainment contexts.

BY MARC PALATUCCI
SCENARIO
Plausible Scenarios for Globalization of Experience VR Revolutionizes, Brings Together Atrophy of the Human Being as a
Leads to Increased Social and the Gaming and Entertainment Physically Social Animal
Virtual Reality in the Environmental Activism Industries
next 15 Years VR has been touted for its ability to With its non-exclusionary price tag
Exponential advancements in VR and
AI allow for the creation of a faithful
heighten a user’s ability to feel emo- and democratizing appeal for users and customizable digital verisimilitude
tion based on immersive content, a of diverse backgrounds and interests, of our reality. Humans recede into full-
quality that proves productive in rais- VR technology creates a new culture body VR suits, capable of producing
ing awareness and action surrounding of fully absorptive social gaming and a full range of sensorial stimuli, and
humanitarian and environmental caus- new styles of entertainment media real-life interactions become virtu-
es. Users are able to witness firsthand content, all accessible from a single ally non-existent. Our imaginations
site-specific environmental and social device, and from the comfort of one’s become our reality, at the expense of
crises and are moved as a result, in- own home. Gaming and video content our physical form.
creasing compassion and motivation as we know it are redefined entirely,
to take action. with new hybrid forms emerging that
blend narrative and interactive ele-
ments in sprawling immersive digital
worlds.

065
Mixed Reality Augmented Reality
cont. Augmented Reality (AR) doesn’t
simulate an entirely new environment,
but rather overlays digital elements
onto your natural field of vision. AR
is often experienced with a Head
Mounted Display or smart eyewear,
with devices by leading brands like
Apple, Google, and Microsoft, as well
as the lesser known Vuzix and Meta,
either in development or already
on the market. Magic Leap, an AR
startup that’s generated tremendous
buzz and billions in funding, is set to
release their hotly anticipated Magic
Leap One headset to the public by
the start of 2019. Apart from the HMD
market, Sony introduced a different
sort of AR product with the Xperia
Touch projector, which can transform
into an interactive touch screen. AR
can also be experienced on mobile
devices, as in the case of Niantic’s
Pokémon Go, the popular gaming app
in which virtual creatures, visible via
one’s smartphone camera, are scat-
tered throughout buildings, land-
scapes, and city streets worldwide to
be tracked down and “captured” by
the players.
Bottom Line
AR offers significant market potential
for news organizations in the near-fu-
ture, with the potential to facilitate
delivery of real-time reactive content
based on recognizable elements in a
user’s field of vision.
BY MARC PALATUCCI
SCENARIO
Plausible Scenarios for AR Gaming and Education Leads to Workplace Applications of AR Dissolution of a Unified Collective
Improved Collective Health Increase Productivity, Decrease Reality
Augmented Reality in Training Costs
With games like Pokémon Go leading
the next 15 Years the way, AR significantly increases the Having adopted AR systems before
AR comes to define the context in
which the average person experi-
amount of daily activity for the aver- the general public, and with signif- ences their daily life, but as a result
age individual, decreasing the health icant resources and common goals of over-customization, people lack
risks caused by a sedentary lifestyle. supporting their efforts, companies a common perspective and become
Encouraged by games and educa- make the most efficient and effec- severely alienated from one another.
tional applications featuring digital tive use of the technology by imple- Given the ability to define their senso-
elements distributed throughout cities menting it to improve infrastructure, ry perception of other people, places
and landscapes, people spend more operations, training, and scenario and things based on personal prefer-
time on their feet and out of doors. simulation. Everything from collec- ence, individuals become less able to
Mental health, fitness, and life expec- tive product design to workplace align with one another through shared
tancies improve. emergency drills become less costly experience. The rate of real-life social
and more effective, boosting overall interaction plummets and the human
productivity. race becomes irreversibly fractured.

066 067
Mixed Reality AR Face Filters to Protect AR as a Tool to Enhance
cont. Individual’s identity Print
Some media outlets have begun using One trend we expect to continue to
AR features like Snapchat face filters see grow is the AR as a compliment
as a way of concealing the identity to print. Media companies are us-
of the person speaking while still ing AR in print as a way to further
allowing the viewer to see the facial engage consumers. AR is incorpo-
expressions of the person speaking. rated through two distinct channels:
The Hindustan Times has used these content and advertising. Services
face filters when talking to underage like blippar add animations, models,
rape victims allowing them an oppor- or images that can only be unlocked
tunity to tell their story while protect- using a smartphone. Companies such
ing their privacy. as Max Factor and Net-A-Porter have
used AR to allow users to scan the
items they like and directly purchase
them through their mobile phone. The
success of AR driven ad campaigns
represents a win-win for both the me-
dia company and the advertiser, and
brands will continue to use this inno-
vation due to the discounted price of
print advertising.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Mixed Reality Arcades
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight are opening up everywhere, giving point, it might be easier and more
everyone the ability to strap in to a cost effective to buy a membership
There are a host of fun, interactive
host of games—but this time around, rather than a new flight suit every few
mixed reality games on the mar-
they don’t take quarters. Startup Vir- months.
ket—but not everyone can afford the
tual World Arcade offers a member-
computer and gaming equipment
ship packages for unlimited VR time. Watchlist
necessary to play. As a result, a new
In Tokyo, VR Park offers more than
kind of arcade for the next-generation Intel; Grand View Research; HTC;
basic games—players can opt-in to
of gamer is coming to a venue near Samsung; Viveland; Oculus; Face-
swinging harnesses, flying platforms
you. book; Alphabet; VRNISH; Inception
and platforms that simulate bungee
VR.
jumping, flying and yes, even falling
Mixed Reality arcades are bring- Examples off skyscrapers.
ing games to everyone using new In the 1980s, video game arcades be-
business models and cutting-edge came popular—at first with geeky kids What’s Next
equipment. and then the mainstream masses, as
Mixed Reality arcades are proving
Pac Man, Galaga and Space Invaders
to be a big business. We expect that
consoles popped up all around the
as the MR market matures, we’ll see
world. They took off because kids and
additional arcades opening up ev-
adults alike both loved playing them—
erywhere. One distinction that might
and because early at-home consoles
keep MR arcades from going the way
and computers were still too costly
of Pac Man—all the haptic interfaces.
for the average person. We’re in a
As games become more immersive,
similar transition now, as VR games
players will need to update more than
move from the fringe to the main-
their headsets and consoles. At some
stream. Mixed Reality gaming parks

VIRTUAL VOCABULARY
A MINI-GLOSSARY FOR THE VIRTUAL REALITY TERMS YOU’LL NEED TO KNOW IN 2019.
Cinematic VR Haptics of showing the images in exact syn- a result of simulated motion while
chronization with the user. When that wearing an HMD. The issue was well
VR created with video and images In addition to a VR headset, hand-
happens, a user moves her head, but documented among earlier HMD
from the real world. (The alternative held controllers are often used. Some
the images she’s seeing lag behind users, but makers of headsets have
is computer-generated graphics.) are equipped with haptic feedback,
a few fractions of a second. This lag since taken measures in an attempt
which gives the user the sensation of
Extended Reality is a reason why some people experi- to prevent this effect.
touching something in the simulated
Extended Reality (XR) is a catch-all ence “simulation sickness.”
environment or receiving touch-back Social VR
describing every environment result- reactions. Presence When two or more people are wired
ing from combinations of the real and
the virtual, as well as every interac- Head mounted display (HMD) When a user feels as though she’s ful- in to a VR simulation and able to
ly immersed within a simulation, like share the experience by observing
tion between humans and machines This is the headset you’ve seen peo-
she’s actually there, she’s achieved each other, interacting or participat-
in relation to those environments and ple wearing. It typically includes a
“presence.” ing in joint activities.
the devices used to create them. XR strap both around and over the head,
encompasses VR, AR, and MR, and which secures the screen to your Refresh rate Stitching
may come to supplant MR as the face. Some HMDs include built-in How quickly the images are updat- The process of combining video from
most inclusive term for digitally inte- headphones as well as sensors for ed. Higher refresh rates cut down on different cameras into one, spherical
grated realities. head tracking. latency and provide a more realistic video suitable for VR. This typically
Eye tracking Head tracking simulation. Ideal refresh rates are requires a tremendous amount of
above 60 frames per second. editing to fill in gaps, reorient scenes
A system that can read the position Some HMDs are equipped with
and seamlessly meld video streams
of the user’s eyes while using VR. Eye special sensors that track the exact Room scale
so that the simulation looks authen-
tracking software allows a user to movements of the user’s head. The This is the tethered version of VR tic.
aim correctly with her head while in a sensors then send feedback to the that offers users the capability of
simulation. system, which moves the images and walking around a room and interact- VR face
audio a user experiences in her field
Field of view (FoV) ing with virtual items, as they walk When a user has been in a simula-
of vision in real-time. around in the physical world. So if tion, a few things happen: the head
What a user can see in her visual field
while in a simulation. The viewing In-ear monitors (IEM) you take a step in the real world, mounted display tends to leave a
you’re also taking a step in the virtual temporary imprint on the skin, not
angle for an average, healthy human These are earbuds that work with
simulation. For this to work, rooms unlike a pair of swimming goggles.
eye is about 200 degrees, so a field head mounted displays that don’t
need to be mapped in advance. Users also tend to relax into a slack-
of view close to or greater than that offer built-in headphones.
jawed look, with their mouths slightly
is optimal, because it creates a true Simulator Sickness
Latency agape.
sense of being within an environ- A nauseated feeling experienced as
ment. Sometimes, the system isn’t capable

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
VR For Marketing
KEEP
REVISIT
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Key Insight What’s Next holiday where you have the driving
skills of Formula One superstar Lewis
Emerging research suggests that vir- VR is being used for both B-to-B and
Hamilton. This, of course, highlights
tual reality storytelling, when it’s done B-to-C marketing. Key Technology,
an impending ethical challenge.
well, rewires all of us—we are likely to which manufactures food processing
develop new belief biases as a result. systems, built a VR marketing expe- VR headset sales jumped 75% year
rience to help vendors see its digital over year in 2017, and we anticipate
Examples food sorting platform in action. Lowes more growth in the coming year. In
stores offers virtual skills training in the near-future brands will have a
For more than a decade, scientists
VR, guiding DIYers through home unique opportunity to tap directly
have been studying “virtual reality
improvement projects. Both BMW into our minds, persuading us through
exposure therapy,” which has been
and Volvo have created apps allow- immersive storytelling.
A woman wears a Samsung VR device used extensively to treat veterans
ing would-be buyers to test drive
to test drive a BMWi. suffering from post-traumatic stress
one of their cars. But unlike the usual Watchlist
syndrome. Because VR is complete-
test drive with a nagging salesper- HQSoftware; Deep VR; 360 Profilms;
ly immersive, it can closely simulate
son trying to convince you to buy Light Sail VR; Perception Squared;
nearly any scenario. Patients, guided
the upgraded sport mode package, TaKanto VR; Circos VR; Helios Inter-
by trained therapists, are embedded
you instead interact with the vehi- active; Rewind; Reverge VR; BBH;
into VR stories that represent a trau-
cle on gorgeous open roads, in the Goodby Silverstein & Partners; Virtual-
ma they’ve experienced. Over time,
best possible weather, all by yourself. SKY; Leo Burnett; BBDO; Facebook;
this therapy results in new neuropath-
Spend enough time with the apps, Droga5; Ogilvy & Mather; Razorfish;
ways—beliefs, attitudes and reactions
and your belief bias will shove your Weiden+Kennedy; GSD&M; VML;
are changed, for better or for worse.
logical mind into the back seat. You Critical Mass; Three One Zero; Valve;
This presents an interesting opportu-
might start to think that inside one of Wevr; Alphabet; Innerspace VR; Start-
nity for marketers.
those cars, every day is a traffic free VR; Epic Games; Survios

Wearables
070 Smart Glasses
071 Hearables / Earables
072 Head Mounted

Displays
073 Haptics
074 Thinkables
075 Embedables
076 Smartwatches
TRENDS 070 - 076 • SEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Wearables
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight ables, we’re seeing more successful transmitted instantaneously to busi-
products and features focused mainly nesses, providing key insights on user
When it comes to wearables, expec-
on media, messaging, education, behavior and enabling highly targeted
tations have long outweighed the re-
gaming, and health. Even the once-re- content distribution. Plus, wearable
ality, with early high-profile missteps
viled Google Glass has found a new cameras like Snapchat Spectacles or
from Google and Intel, slow sales
role in didactic applications, assisting the GoPro Hero could facilitate live
growth for the Apple Watch, and little
with training and procedures in oper- citizen journalism video footage from
to speak of from the world of fashion,
ating rooms and on factory floors. vantage points otherwise inaccessi-
an industry many expected to excel at
ble to news bureaus. Familiarity with
wearable tech. As wearable tech begins to approach
wearables and their various applica-
critical mass in the coming years,
However as of September 2018, the tions could prove highly valuable in
Neurable’s brain-computer interfaces news and media firms that invest
Future Today Institute is tracking 541 the foreseeable future.
enable hands-free control in virtual in content tailored for the portable
wearable devices, in various stages of
reality. products—think bite-size briefings
development—from fringe experimen-
for wrist-mounted displays, or POV Watchlist
tation to mass-market sales. The Fu-
how-to’s for smart eyewear—will be Apple; Samsung; Fitbit; Google;
ture Today Institute estimates that by
poised to capitalize on the trend. In Jabra; Garmin; GoPro; Huawei; Xiaomi;
the end of 2019, 360 million wearable
addition, news organizations should Snapchat; Nike; Under Armour; Face-
devices will be sold worldwide. More
consider wearable tech as a two-way book; Immersion; Neuralink; Neurable;
than half are dedicated to fitness or
street—not only a means of providing Apple; Microsoft; Intel.
biometrics, while others are intended
media to consumers, but also receiv-
for gaming, work and medical moni-
ing information from them. Personal
toring. Global sales should generate
data ranging from sight lines and
revenue of $39 billion in the coming
heart rates to sleep patterns and
year. As companies continue to learn
ambient weather conditions could be
what works and what doesn’t in wear-

menting with audio applications built cate right and left turns to the wearer
Wearables 070 for earable interfaces. through haptic vibrations, and Face-
Smart Glasses book has even tested a device worn
cont. This will be the year that developers 072 on the forearm that can translate a
limited lexicon of words into a series
start experimenting with Magic Leap, Head Mounted Displays of patterned vibrations. This tech-
whose smart glasses project light
Head Mounted Displays or HMDs are nology and the adoption of a haptic
directly into the user’s eye, making it
most commonly applied in the con- “language,” though far from imminent,
seem as though digital objects exist
texts of VR, gaming, and immersive could be of use to news organizations
in the real world. Don’t force connec-
simulation. Though the devices have in communicating headlines or tweets
tions between Google Glass and what
yet to truly take off with household to consumers without the need of an
comes next. Glass was a successful
consumers, possibly due to issues audiovisual interface.
technology in search of a market.
with discomfort and nausea, leading
devices like the HTC Vive and Oculus
071 074
Rift show potential to grow beyond a
Hearables / Earables niche market of gamers and profes- Thinkables
sionals. Apple hopes to make waves No longer the stuff of science fiction,
 In-ear computers, otherwise known
in the HMD space by combining AR thinkables are the category of wear-
as earables, are a burgeoning sector
and VR in a single ultra-high-resolu- ables that create an interface between
of wearables. Integrating features like
tion device, slated for release in 2020. the brain and technology, allowing the
voice commands, biometric tracking,
For the time being, the main opportu- user to control designated devices us-
selective noise-canceling, music and
nity for news integration is via immer- ing only their thoughts. Boston-based
data storage, and software integra-
sive 360 degree video. startup Neurable created a VR game
tion, these devices are essentially
controlled via thinkable interface,
headphones with far more advanced
which helped them recently secure
levels of functionality. Future versions 073
series A funding to continue research
of Apple’s popular wireless EarPods Haptics in the field, and 4DForce makes a
will be able to monitor temperature,
In the context of wearables, haptics headset that converts brainwaves into
perspiration and heart rate during
describe devices that communicate signals a computer can understand,
exercise or sports—and those earbuds
with the user via tactile sensations— with gaming, wellness, and entertain-
will be used to control devices such
the vibration of a smart watch as a ment as the intended application.
as our phones using only head ges-
means of notification, for example. Most ambitious is Neuralink, a neuro-
tures. The Bragi Dash earbuds double
As wearables evolve, the mechanics technology company founded by Elon
as a personal assistant, responding to
of haptics will become more nuanced Musk that is developing a bio-adap-
gesture as well as voice, and multis-
and complex, as will their applica- tive neural lace to be “worn” on the
port earpieces from KUAI are water-
tions. Swedish sportswear brand POC human brain, which Musk hopes will
proof for use while swimming. News
built a prototype cycling backpack initially help to treat neurological
organizations should begin experi-
integrated with GPS directions to indi- diseases, and eventually allow for en-

TREND 072 - 076 • SEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
hancement of the brain by connecting 076

Wearables it directly with the internet. Facebook
Smartwatches
is also active in thinkables, working
cont. to develop a device that can deduce Smartwatches and smart wristbands
what word one is thinking of by read- represent one of the most approach-
ing their brainwaves. able types of wearables, with the
Apple Watch and Samsung Gear
leading the market. Global sales
075
of the wrist-mounted devices are
Embedables accelerating, though they are still
At the extreme fringe of the wear- largely considered auxiliary devices
ables trend, groups of biotech and to one’s mobile phone. As they gain
body-modification enthusiasts, some- in popularity, they stand to evolve
times referred to as “grinders,” seek into primary devices in their own
to embed technology directly into right, with developers building more
their bodies. Implants range from dec- advanced apps and features tailored
orative LED lights, to Bluetooth-en- to the product, making use of loca-
abled biometric devices, to RFID tion services, motion response, and
chips placed under the skin of the hands-free functionality. The future of
hand and used in place of keycards to smart watches is promising, and news
unlock electronic doors. This is a high- organizations should consider how
ly niche trend, with no obvious oppor- best to adapt their content to these
tunity for news organizations, though devices in order to gain a foothold in
one popular practice in this subcul- the wearables space.
ture is to implant magnets in the ears
that act as headphones, which could
potentially be used to consume audio
media. Due to the health risks asso-
ciated with implanting technology
into the human body, embedables are
unlikely to enter the mainstream in
the near future.

BY MARC PALATUCCI
MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO FOR WEARABLES
Rise of Wearable Tech Leads To The Surrender of

Personal Autonomy
We’ve already heard cautionary tales of betrayal by the devices we’ve wel- Many of the tech companies in question are the very same firms that will be
comed into our homes—smart speakers eavesdropping on us, gaming con- heavily involved in the hardware and software of the fast-growing wearables
soles tracking our movements, laptop cameras surreptitiously peering into market, and knowing the access they secretively granted to the government,
our private lives. Now imagine a future for wearable devices where we’re it is not far-fetched to think they might do the same for companies with
willingly strapping those microphones, cameras, and trackers to our bodies, whom they wanted to curry favor. With its tremendous influence on public
lured by the benefits they provide us but unaware that we are subjecting opinion, the news media industry would be a likely candidate for collusive
ourselves to extremely invasive levels of surveillance. Add to this premise the behavior. Given access to user data, news and media agencies could acquire
possibility of biometric devices that communicate directly with our neurologi- exhaustive personal information about a large portion of the public. If a dis-
cal and bodily systems, and entire populations could be shockingly vulnerable honest or nefarious media organization decided that the beliefs or behaviors
to manipulation by forces beyond their control. of a particular subset of the population—defined along parameters of age,
race, religion, sexual orientation, or political affiliation, for example—were
Take the United States, for example. You may remember the scandal sur- detrimental to their interests, members of the subset could be easily identi-
rounding the US National Security Agency’s PRISM program, in which tech fied, tracked, and targeted with content to exploit their psychological profile,
giants including Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Skype, and Apple reportedly disrupt their lives and influence their actions. Even—or perhaps especially—if
made massive amounts of private user data available to the government in implemented in subtle ways, manipulation of the populace via wearables
some capacity without informing their users. Revelations of the US govern- could have devastating effects.
ment’s violation of its citizens’ privacy came about when Edward Snowden, a
contractor for the NSA at the time, leaked classified documents pertaining to
PRISM. A public outcry followed, but the program is still active, and calls for
transparency did little to shed light on any continued alliances between the
NSA and Silicon Valley.

Hardware
077 CubeSats 083 Drone Swarms
078 Drone Delivery 084 Searching The

Internet of Physical
079 Increasing Patents Things
and Calls For New
Regulation 085 Intelligent Cameras
080 Drone Lanes 086 Faster Connectivity

With 5G
081 Sense And Avoid
Technology
082 Microdrones
and Drones Used
In Dangerous/ Hard-
To-Reach Areas
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
CubeSats
KEEP
REVISIT
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Key Insight land and beam them back down to bined valuation of companies such as
earth to help farmers assess their Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and Digital-
Entrepreneurs are building and pre-
crops. Image analysis software can Globe is well into the tens of billions.
paring to launch thousands of low-
tell big box retailers, such as Walmart,
cost, high-value satellites in the next
how many cars are parked in their lots What’s Next
three years. These satellites are small,
and look for trends over time. They
capable of communicating with each The Federal Aviation Administra-
can then do the same with a compet-
other, and will photograph every inch tion is projecting “an unprecedented
itor’s parking lots to gather strategic
of Earth’s surface every day of the number” of satellite launches between
intelligence. Mining companies can
year.   2018-2020. This will allow journalists,
survey a swath of land to see who’s
companies, governments and private
started drilling and whether they’ve
The PhoneSat 2.5, a CubeSat built at Examples struck oil. Satellites monitor traffic,
citizens to gain access to the images
and tools for all sorts of purposes.
NASA’s Ames Research Center. Miniature satellites, otherwise known polar ice caps, and even us. Unlike a
CubeSats and image analysis will
as CubeSats, aren’t new technology. traditional, large satellite, when one
help us better understand the pulse
They’ve actually been in use by space CubeSats goes offline or gets dam-
of our cities, gain a deeper view into
agencies for years. What’s changing aged, the rest of the fleet still works.
weather events and dive into crimi-
is the launch technology that lifts
Near-real time images, coupled with nal activity. But that goes both ways.
CubeSats into orbit. Heavy investment
machine learning and analysis tools, CubeSats could become a national
into propulsion systems—not to men-
is big business. Governments, big security liability.
tion significant advancements in tech-
agricultural corporations, intelligence
nology and cheaper components—are
agencies, shipping companies and
making it easier to mass-produce tiny
logistics firms all want access, so
satellites in a factory and launch them
they’re willing to pay tens of millions
for a variety of purposes. Fleets of
of dollars a year for access. The com-
CubeSats now take photos of farm-

TREND 077
CubeSats cont. Watchlist

Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet;
Planetary Resources; Airbus D&S;
DigitalGlobe; National Geospatial
Intelligence Agency; 3 Gimbals;
Space Exploration Technologies
Corp; Orbital Insight; Google; Space-
Know; Capella Space Inc; OneWeb;
SpacePharma; Santa Clara University;
Technische Universitat Berlin; Tokyo
Institute of Technology; University of
Tokyo; California Polytechnic Uni-
versity; Cornell University; Boeing;
Delft University of Technology; NASA
Ames Research Center; Transcelestial;
NSLComm; Earthcube; Aerial & Mar-
itime; Fleet Space; Astrocast; Kepler
Communications; GeoOptics; Hera
Systems; Sky and Space Global; Astro
Digital; Kanagawa University; The
Aerospace Corporation; Los Alamos
National Labratory; NRL Naval Center
for Space; Space and Missile Defense
Command; Satellogic; Spire; US Air
Force; Lawrence Livermore National
Labratory; MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace
Donganghong; National University of
Defense Technology (China); Shang-
hai Engineering Center for Microsatel-
lites (China); SRI International; Naval
Postgraduate School.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Drones
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight of new stories to cover, especially for it had authorized a three-pilot pro-
reporters working logistics and busi- gram to test drone traffic under
Drones are now available in an array
ness beats—and it potentially means different conditions in “innovation
of sizes and form factors, from light-
the end of newspaper delivery by zones.” In Europe, the E.U. has tenta-
weight planes and coptors to tiny,
humans, forever. tively agreed to regulations, which at
machines no bigger (or louder) than
publication date was still waiting for
a hummingbird. They now include
079 authorization from member coun-
powerful sense and avoid technology
and the ability to fly on their own.
Increasing Patents and tries. Canada, the United Kingdom,
and the International Civil Aviation
Calls For New Regulation
Organization are actively writing new
078 Whether drone delivery services ever regulations. The results of these pilot
A DJI Inspire 2 flown in Los Angeles. Drone Delivery get off the ground largely hinges on programs will dictate the likelihood of
The camera hangs below and the legislation and corporate develop-
Towards the end of 2016, commercial drone delivery in 2020 and beyond.
landing gear rises up out of the frame. ment. If the number of patents Am-
drone deliveries launched. U.S.-based
azon was awarded in 2017 for drone
Zipline brought its drone delivery 080
related technologies (43+) is any
system to Rwanda, where it delivered
indication, retailers are anticipating
Drone Lanes
vital blood supplies. UPS, Amazon
government approval. Amazon was We’re about to have overhead con-
and DHL all tested their own fleets of
granted a patent for a self-destruct- gestion—which means soon, you can
drones. Legislation will soon catch up
ing drone that can disassemble itself expect invisible drone lanes over-
with the technology. We anticipate
in case of emergency, while Walmart head. Amateur drone pilots continue
that aviation authorities will start to
was granted a patent for a drone that to cause trouble for commercial and
act in 2019-2020, at which point com-
delivers items off store shelves to private airline pilots. Currently, the
mercial drone deliveries will finally
people while they shop. In late 2017, FAA does not allow drones to fly near
take flight in earnest. This means lots
the Trump Administration announced the airspace of airports—but while

TRENDS 078 - 083
Drones cont. there are no-fly zones, there aren’t

no-fly circumstances. In Singapore,
082 083
Microdrones and Drones Drone Swarms
researchers are considering the via-
bility of different options including
Used In Dangerous/ Hard- Hundreds of micro-drones can be
“air-lanes,” the development of “air- To-Reach Areas deployed at once and are now capa-
blocks” and “air-fences” to manage Industries are beginning to utilize ble of moving as one, technological
traffic. NASA and the FAA are work- smaller, rugged, AI-powered drones organism in the sky. They’re so fast,
ing on initiatives scheduled to end to access dangerous and hard-to- that cameras have a difficult time
in 2019 and 2025 respectively, which reach spaces. Drones are being used capturing them in real-time. This tech-
could provide possible nation-wide to survey the insides of underground nology was developed by the military,
solutions for managing drone traffic. mines, ballasts of tanks, and inside and it’s been used for dazzling light
As sky infrastructure gets designed nuclear facilities. Home and building shows at Disney Parks and during the
and developed, look for a potential inspectors have also begun using Super Bowl halftime show. Of course,
emerging market for companies in drones to inspect rooftops and sides drone swarms aren’t always benevo-
infrastructure management and for of buildings. Drone adoption for these lent. Early in 2018, a swarm carrying
AI cloud-based monitoring of the purposes could result in reducing risk explosives, said to be controlled by
friendly skies. to human life, and cost savings as- Syrian rebels, attacked two Russian
sociated with shortened downtimes. military bases.
081 Facebook’s launch of an internet-pro-
Sense And Avoid Tech- viding drone along with AT&T’s suc-
nology cessful use of a cellular signal drone
in Puerto Rico also highlight addition-
Robots harnessing neural networks
al signals that drones could become a
and artificial intelligence can make
useful and prevalent tool in providing
inferences and decisions when pro-
basic services to disparaged areas
grammed to do so. That’s because
or locations lacking basic forms of
of sense and avoid technology. This
infrastructure.
year, drones will be programmed
to navigate along the path of GPS
waypoints—and they’ll make decisions
midair about the best path to take
and when to avoid objects like build-
ings, trees and mountains. Or other
drones, for that matter.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Searching The Internet
of Physical Things REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight real-world objects, as well as all of the counter drugs in order to spot coun-
devices connected to the Internet of terfeits. Osram expects that there will
The Internet of Things—that massive
Things. be consumer products able to search
interconnection between all of our
the physical world launching in the
smart devices and the internet—is
What’s Next next few years. Meantime, MatchMak-
growing at breakneck speed. We al-
er Exchange is an “Internet of DNA,”
ready have billions of physical devices Shodan and Thingful are search en-
matching the DNA from sick people
connected to the internet, but what gines for IoT devices. It was intended
around the world to help researchers
about also searching for real-world as a security tool to help IT profes-
discover rare genes. It’s not unrealistic
things? sionals keep track of all the devices
to say that in the near future, every-
connected to a network—but hackers
thing you see (and even the things
Shodan is a searchable internet of Examples also found that they could remote-
you can’t) will become searchable via
ly access baby cameras and garage
things. Several years ago, Amazon updat- a distributed network. But what if the
doors. German lighting manufacturer
ed its mobile app to allow people to real-world gets hacked? It’s possible
Osram built a tiny chip that can scan
shop for real-world objects by scan- that someone could re-label contam-
a bar of chocolate to determine how
ning their barcodes. Its next iteration inated medication as pure. As the
much cacao is inside. Its chip helps
let users take and upload a photo. searchable physical IoT grows, we will
power a consumer-grade molecular
Now, you only need to wave your need a new system to verify searches.
spectrometer built by Israeli start-
smartphone near an object you want
up Consumer Physics, which allows
to get more information on, or you
anyone to extract information out of Watchlist
can directly add it to your shopping
food and pills. This could enable you Shodan; Thingful; Qualcomm; Intel;
cart. Online search giants like Google
to scan a piece of chicken in order to Alphabet; Microsoft; Apple; Tencent;
and Bing have made it easy to find
search the fat and calories on your Alibaba; Baidu; Amazon; Osram; Con-
just about any information in the dig-
plate. Their research is also able to sumer Physics; MatchMaker Exchange
ital realm. The idea is to let us search
recognize prescription and over-the-

TREND 085 • FIFTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Intelligent Cameras
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight having to beg attendees to fill out What’s Next

post-conference surveys!). Google
Cameras themselves are getting Advancements in smart camera tech-
launched AIY Vision Kit, a smart
smarter, and they now have on-device nology are critical to the future of our
camera kit that works with Rasberry
AI capabilities. They are able to listen future AI ecosystem. Soon, they will
Pi—the company is hoping that DIY
to and watch what’s in the frame, then be able to see in the dark. Recogni-
enthusiasts and developers will start
make decisions based on that infor- tion algorithms will do more than spot
building smart camera applications.
mation. That might include locking people and pets. They’ll connect with
Yves Béhar, who designed the August
a door, recording a conversation, or other IoT devices, making autono-
smart lock, created a new home se-
following a robber as he runs down mous decisions—like when to lock the
curity camera called the Hive View—it
the street. doors, whether to close off bridge
Amazon’s smart camera system automatically sends smartphone noti-
access, and which roommate gets the
includes pre-trained models for deep fications when it detects any unusual
learning skills.
Examples motion or sound. Engineers at the
last slice of pie.
Late in 2017, Amazon Web Services University of Washington have devel-

announced a $250 AI-powered cam- oped a system of networked cameras
Watchlist
era called DeepLens that includes that can automatically track people Amazon; Alphabet; Microsoft; Qual-
optical character recognition, as well as they move. Combined with facial comm; Intel; Tencent; University of
as image and object recognition. A and object recognition algorithms Washington; Microsoft; Camera Cul-
smart camera would enable compa- and AI, smart cameras will provide ture Research Group at the MIT Media
nies to remotely count and monitor unprecedented security opportunities. Lab; Institute of Anthropomatics &
warehouse inventories. They could They will be used in our cars, bringing Robotics at the Karlsruhe Institute
also let conference organizers and us one big step closer to hybrid-au- of Technology; National Instruments;
Hollywood movie studios gauge the tonomous vehicles, where drivers will Electronic Frontier Foundation; Aus-
level of enthusiasm during perfor- choose to take control of the wheel trian Institute of Technology; Universi-
mances (no more focus groups or or allow the car to drive itself during ty of Birmingham
stop-and-go traffic.
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Faster Connectivity With 5G
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight driverless cars, smart cities, and Watchlist

smart grids will all rely on 5G.
5G trials, supported by the Federal Federal Communications Commission;
Communications Commission and European Union; Qualcomm; Intel;
What’s Next
the European Union, are underway ISPs.
around the world. Local internet service providers have
been reluctant to upgrade their net-
Examples works, but that’s starting to change.
Already, some carriers are integrating
5G is the fifth generation of wireless
Gigabit LTE into their existing net-
technology. We had 1G in the early
works, a sort of pre-5G upgrade. In
5G will help to power city infrastruc- 1990s and 2G in the late 90s, which
the U.S., AT&T and Verizon have both
ture. enabled us to send text messages
announced limited-scale 5G, though
between two mobile devices. 3G
it’s more likely the networks will be
supported our ability to browse the
ready in late 2019 or 2020. Howev-
internet. Now, with 4G, we’re able to
er, once the networks are ready, the
download and upload large videos.
changeover to 5G-enabled devices
5G will dramatically increase the
will be swift.
speeds at which we connect—we’ll
be able to pull HD and 3D video and Hardware manufacturers like Qual-
use VR in the cloud, since download comm are readying 5G modems and
speeds will hover around 10 gigabits advanced chipsets. Globally, there will
per second, which will be a boon for be a new wave of spectrum auctions
news organizations that distribute (and arguments).
video content. But it isn’t just our
phones that will use the connection:

The Media Business
087 Media Consolidation
088 Ad Blockers
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Media Consolidation
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight of 21st Century Fox since the summer ington State have suggested that rise
of 2018. Discovery Communications in talk radio, expansion of cable TV,
Digital audiences increase as mar-
completed a merger with the Scripps and the internet all coincided with
gins continue to shrink for traditional
Networks and Time Magazine was increased elite polarization in the US.
media companies. Ad-based reve-
acquired by Meredith Corporation for The Columbia Journalism Review has
nue models are difficult to sustain,
$2.8 billion only to be put up for sale reported on the rise of news deserts,
especially for local media outlets
again four months later. NBCUniversal American towns with no local news
and many are shutting their doors.
has continued to make equity invest- coverage. Politico reported on the
Deregulation from the FCC is paving
ments in Buzzfeed and Snapchat to clear correlation between lack of local
OpenAP is a consortium of TV pub- the way for large media corporations
grow its digital portfolio. news outlets and Trump supporters in
lishers headed by Turner and Viacom. to continue to consolidate through
the 2016 presidential elections. News-
acquisitions and vertical integration. Niche digital outlets with substantial
rooms are relying more and more on
audiences have also been forced to
wire services like the AP and Reuters
Examples close. The Gothamist and DNAInfo
as they cut staff under budget pres-
were shut down last year after em-
This year we saw the further consol- sures.
ployees voted to unionize; the Hairpin
idation of news and media compa-
and the Awl ceased editorial opera- However, media consolidation does
nies, across all traditional distribution
tions in early 2018 due to lack of ad not mean lack of options. Large
channels: television, radio and print.
revenue. Media darlings like Buzzfeed media corporations have an incentive
IHeartMedia, owner of the largest ra-
and Vice both missed revenue targets to serve a wide and diverse audience
dio network in the US, filed for bank-
by over $60 million. so that they can offer more selection
ruptcy with $20B in debt. Its next
to advertisers. In order to secure and
largest rival, Cumulus filed for bank- Media consolidation is a trend that
sustain audiences, some media outlets
ruptcy a few months earlier. Disney matters because it directly impacts
are adopting a market segmentation
and Comcast have been in a bidding the quality and diversity of journalism.
and content differentiation strategy
war to buy the entertainment division Researchers at Harvard and Wash-

TREND 087
Media by scheduling shows with stronger

positions, louder personalities, and
What’s Next the revenue losses from trends like
cord-cutting, skinny-bundling and
The repeal of net neutrality and con-
Consolidation more polarized political stances. Fox
News and MSNBC, often seen as polar
tinued deregulation of the FCC under
internet TV streaming packages.
With traditional media corporations
Ajit Pai will likely mean that large me-
opposites on the political spectrum, owning the majority of ISPs in the US,
cont. both dominated the May 2018 cable
dia corporations, especially telecoms
it is unlikely that these corporations
like AT&T and Comcast, can increase
news rankings. will create internet-only packages
profits by prioritizing internet traffic
that give more power and revenue
In March 2018, a viral video showed and sharing data with their subsidiar-
over to tech giants like Google and
dozens of local news anchors reading ies. This trend started in 2015, when
Facebook. Google has attempted and
a politically-charged script warning NBC announced its Audience Tar-
ultimately failed to break into the ISP
against fake news and biased me- geting Platform using among other
business with experiments such as
dia. All of the stations are owned by data sources, set-top box data from
Google Fiber.
Sinclair, the largest owner of local TV parent-company Comcast. OpenAP,
stations in the US. Sinclair has strong a consortium of TV publishers head-
connections to the Trump administra- Watchlist
ed by Turner and Viacom, offers
tion and regularly pushes “must-run” ad-targeting products that integrate The FCC; Comcast NBC Universal;
political segments to its network of set-top box data from ComScore and Amazon; Axel Springer; Viacom;
stations. This instance was widely crit- consumer data from Nielsen. Last Baidu; Bertelsmann; Time Warner;
icized by journalists and publishers. year, congress and President Trump News Corp; Discovery; Disney; Soft-
From a workforce perspective, repealed US broadband privacy rules Bank Capital; AT&T; Vox; Vice; Netflix;
writers and content creators have a which gives more freedom to ISPs Hearst Ventures; Facebook; Twitter;
low switching costs when it comes to monetize data. Additionally, many Alphabet; Yomiuri Shimbun Hold-
to publishing their work on one or ISPs have an opt-out privacy policy ings; Tronc; Sinclair Broadcast Group;
more outlets. According to UpWork, which means that customers data is CBS Television; Nextar Broadcasting
a freelance marketplace and research collected by default unless they indi- Group; Raycom Media; E.W. Scripps;
group, the majority of the workforce cate otherwise. Univision; Cox Media Group; Mere-
will be freelancers by 2027. Reporting dith Corp; Hubert Burda Media; Asahi
Consumers will not protest at first,
from the Columbia Journalism Review Shimbun Company; Microsoft; Grupo
seeing lower bills and more perks
and other sources show that free- Globo; News Corp; Univision; news
(such as zero-rating Netflix on mobile
lancing journalism comes at a cost. organizations everywhere.
streaming devices). These media con-
Freelance journalists are earning less, glomerates will continue a strategy of
are more vulnerable to cyber attacks, vertical integration and will own every
and do not have bargaining power for piece of the media supply chain.
benefits such as health insurance and This vertical integration strategy has
setting rates. helped media corporations manage

BY ELENA GIRALT
SCENARIO
Optimistic Framing
Large media companies will find new from ML algos that scan the entire media consolidation increases, more
revenue models that satisfy their library of digital content that might companies can follow the example of
customers and advertisers alike. In- be enjoyable to the viewer. This idea Comcast which has its own ad ex-
ternational regulation around digital is similar to Spotify’s Discover Weekly change platform. Media companies
privacy is standardizing (thanks in but for TV or news articles. With this have already formed ad consortium
part to European laws like GDPR), and model, local news can be supported networks that pool inventory from
here in the US, the FCC and FTC are by a network of niche content cre- the group to sell to advertisers. This
deregulating under President Trump’s ators and freelancers as opposed to will only increase in order to remain
pro-big business administration. fully staffed stations and newsrooms. competitive against tech giants like
Google and Facebook. Eventually, ad-
Customers will enjoy hyper-per- While cord-cutting trend continues, vertisers like CPG and Unilever form
sonalization as improved audience large media companies develop joint-ventures with the largest media
targeting and analytics inform better new products as they become ful- properties to co-create content with
content-recommendations, localized ly “vertically integrated” across the product placement, native ads, and
news coverage and context, real-time media pipeline (from content creator sponsored segments.
fact-checking, personal data analyt- to last-mile broadband provider)
ics, and better integrations across IoT through acquisitions and continued Netflix and other VOD services like
connected devices. Large companies consolidation. The subscription model Youtube loose leverage and negoti-
have the capital to invest in state- evolves to include more advanced ating power in a post-net neutrality
of-the-art privacy solutions, which options. Bundled internet packages world. Google abandons GoogleFiber
will create a perception that smaller allow users the flexibility to choose completely and new data manage-
media organizations are less secure the product that is best for them ment laws/ compliance regulations
and less trustworthy and give custom- while improving market segmenta- increase the barriers to entry for
ers more confidence to share personal tion for advertisers. For example, new competitors in the ISP/ Telecom
data across devices. Conceivably, a users can pay more for ad-light ISP space.
customer could get a basic pack- bundles. Users will not be able to opt
age with 100 standard channels + 1 for a bare-bones package with basic
channel full of “discoverable” content texting and GPS.
that the user might like based on their
viewing habits and preference data. Advertisers enjoy the increased trans-
This “discoverable” content will come parency that comes with more data
and advanced targeting products. As

BY ELENA GIRALT
SCENARIO cont.
Pragmatic Pessimistic
Large media companies will need to giving customers delightful, person- Competition will be particularly fierce Large media corporations should
innovate their current product offer- alized experiences while also being with tech giants such as Facebook, anticipate volatile swings in regulation
ings. They will need to adapt existing responsible custodians of data and Google, Amazon, and Netflix. Joint and the economy.
revenue models to allow for more cus- privacy. Tech and media corporations ventures such as Hulu, NBC + Snap-
tomization and flexibility otherwise Trump will lose reelection and the
form an interdisciplinary consortium chat will become more commonplace
they will lose market share (in terms next administration, united with sup-
with privacy advocates to set stan- but it will be challenging to measure
of audiences and ad dollars) to new port of a majority Democrat congress,
dards and update policies governing the impact/ benefit of these projects.
media players. seeks to undo much of the deregula-
data management and security. Ap- Joint ventures will push innovation
tion of FCC/FTC under Ajit Pai, prom-
plications with blockchain technology and large media companies will need
Traditional advertising units (pre-roll, ising to be tough on data breaches
and improved data tracking systems to increase their appetite for risk-tak-
banner ads,:30 spots) have a smaller and increase consumer protections.
will bring more transparency to the ing. Tech giants, afraid of losing
impact with consumers and there- This creates uncertainty, instability
ad ecosystem. Customers’ purchasing market share and profit margins, enter
fore command lower prices. Native and cost as telcos and tech compa-
behavior will change in the US and into the ISP/ telecom/ infrastructure
advertising and product placement nies scramble to stay in compliance
western Europe as more people turn market.
are workable alternatives but these with changing regulations. Some of
to subscription-based services like
forms of advertising are difficult Finally, further consolidation will have these regulations include troubling
Amazon (prime, pantry, healthcare).
to scale. Large media corporations a negative impact on news in local controls on “appropriate” content and
People spend less time shopping and
have the advantage of cross-plat- markets. Public perception as “news speech.
browsing through physical retailers.
form, cross-portfolio ad campaigns as a public good” results in friction
Retailers move to a “click-and-mor- GDPR makes its first landmark case
but Google and Facebook still have and even the animosity of large media
tar” distribution model or abandon against Facebook for cybersecuri-
better access to customer data and companies. To improve public per-
storefronts all together as e-com- ty vulnerabilities and successfully
advanced ad targeting. Large media ception, large media corporations and
merce improves in speed, security, collects a fine of $4B USD (15% of
corporations will see rising audiences tech companies include “fake news”
recommendation algorithms, and revenue). Chris Cox becomes the new
overall (driven by growth on digital solutions and public media projects as
supply chain logistics. CPG leaders CEO of Facebook after Zuckerberg’s
platforms) but with shrinking profit part of their corporate social respon-
like Unilever and P&G rethink their early retirement. Cox promises com-
margins across the board. sibility. The media market in the US
marketing approach, abandoning fes- plete cooperation with government
tivals like Cannes Lions and acquiring and Europe is highly saturated leading
Customers are getting more tech-sav- officials.
direct-to-consumer startups. Unilever some major media players to look to
vy and begin to demand opt-in
and P&G form exclusive relationships markets like India and Latin America Simultaneously, advances in technol-
data-sharing policies. Large media
with Amazon, circumventing media for new ventures. These efforts are ogy dramatically lower the barriers
companies and tech giants both
outlets altogether. costly and ultimately unsuccessful. to entry for new players in the media
struggle to strike a balance between
industry. China tech giants like Baidu,

BY ELENA GIRALT
SCENARIO cont.
Catastrophic
Tencent, Huawei enter the US market. Given what we know about surveil- South Korea. (In South Korea, internet
Subscription-based models like Am- lance capitalism, xenophobia, and addiction mostly from online gaming,
azon Prime and Netflix become the state-run media, governments, even gambling, and social media has led to
norm. While they are convenient, they liberal Western democracies will play significant mental health issues) US
typically exclude or under-serve lower a larger role in regulating media and government considers information
income levels or people with unstable free speech. regulation and digital censorship. The
income. Media companies that also FCC and the Department of Health
Larger audiences and shrinking
own ISPs focus service in high-income introduce Surgeon General warnings
margins force major media and tech
neighborhoods increasing the digi- for “fake news” and issue guidelines
companies to adopt increasingly
tal divide. In addition to inconsistent for appropriate information consump-
invasive data-surveillance strategies in
coverage across the US, states begin tion. The most famous guideline is
order to provide cutting-edge person-
to regulate the internet industry in a the FCC Information Consumption
alization and hyper-targeted adver-
variety of ways. State-level net neu- Triangle similar to the Food Pyramid,
tising. Media companies continue to
trality provisions, hate-speech laws, that gives guidance on daily dose of
consolidate in order to stay compet-
revenge porn punishments give rise to appropriate information sources. The
itive with tech giants. Surveillance
splinternets. Splinternets further the layers of the triangle from bottom
capitalism, left unchecked, will lead
spread of regional truths, fake news, to top are “real world experiences”,
to a world where corporations own
and alternative facts. “news, school work and factual in-
detailed profiles on 90% of individuals
formation”, “film and entertainment”,
Independent local media outlets and in the US and 70% of Europeans. The
“social media”. In an effort to curb
newsrooms struggle to find talent and government, in the name of national
cyber-bullying, Facebook and Google
stay financially soluble. security, begins to purchase this data
cooperate with the government to
in mass quantities. While consum-
censor inflammatory language. This
er advocacy groups, the ACLU, and
rapidly escalates to modern day book
privacy advocates protest this trend,
burnings, where websites are pulled
companies argue that the data has
offline mysteriously for violating
been “anonymized” though reporters
“appropriate language” guidelines. In
cannot verify this claim.
higher education, Marketing and Jour-
Social media and digital addiction nalism departments become inter-
increase cause a serious mental disciplinary approaches to the same
health crisis in the US; similar to problem: attention capture.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Ad Blockers
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight India (28%), Indonesia (58%), Germa- media sites such as the New York
ny (29%), and Canada (25%). Times and the BBC. Publishers are
As ad block technology continues
blocking ad blockers with two main
to improve, publishers have rallied In 2017 and 2018, advertisers pushed
strategies: indirectly by improving
together through trade groups to back against giants like Google and
quality of ads and user experience,
collectively address this existential Facebook for their “dirty digital”
and more directly by detecting block-
threat to their business model. Better products. Advertisers like Unilever
ers, disabling ad blocker scripts and
ad practices and improved mobile and P&G called out Facebook for ad
obfuscating ads.
experiences (like AMP pages) seem fraud (clickbots) and Google was
to be working. According to a recent under pressure to improve brand Publishers (Google, FB, Alexa top
study from the Association of Online safety measures on platforms like 100K sites) have adopted better ad
The rates of ad blocking have pla- practices such as IAB/ LEAN guide-
Publishers, rates of ad blocking have YouTube where ads were run against
teaued but the loss of revenue to lines and Coalition for Better Ads.
plateaued but the loss of revenue to ISIS videos or on channels promoting
publishers is still a significant concern. Both outline compliant formats re-
publishers is still a significant concern. Nazis, pedophilia, and white suprema-
cy. In light of scandals like Cambridge stricting ad dimensions, CPU (central
Examples Analytica and regulation like GDPR, processing usage), and features (sur-
consumers are growing increasing- prise: autoplay and pop ups are not
Ad blocking is mostly a desktop phe-
ly sensitive about how their data is on the list!). Trade groups like the IAB
nomenon however rates of mobile ad
used and publishers have to be more Ad Blocking Working Group and the
blocking have seen modest increases.
thoughtful about how they track and Acceptable Ads Committee provide
Ad blocking is much higher outside
store user data. Tech-savvy customers resources, best practices and research
the US, particularly in Europe and
have every reason to be suspicious of for publishers to deter ad blocking on
Asia. 18% of US uses some form of ad
spammy ads. Security firm Confiant their sites or get their sites whitelisted
blocking software, the vast majority
found that fake ads containing mal- by ad blockers. Upon detecting ad
on desktop devices. Ad block pene-
ware and ransomware were on major blockers, many sites will ask users to
tration is higher in other countries like

TREND 088
Ad Blockers whitelist their site. In the most ex-

treme case, Salon.com gave visitors
sophisticated approaches to detect
ads. One of the more sophisticated
of invasive and predatory advertising
tactics, they may turn to projects like
cont. the option to whitelist their site or

allow Salon to mine cryptocurrency
approaches, as described by a group
of researchers at Princeton University,
Pi-Hole for transparency and privacy.
Leaked documents show Facebook
using the users spare CPU. is perceptual ad blocking. Perceptual targeting teens with low self-esteem
ad blocking relies on the regulatory for beauty and skin care products and
In the past two years, Facebook has
disclosures/ disclaimers that are re- new Roomba models can map out
introduced features that allow us-
quired by the Federal Trade Commis- homes and floor plans.
ers to give feedback on ads, report
sion (FTC) endorsement guidelines.
abusers and bad actors and increase Publishers are exploring alternatives
This includes using OCR to detect
transparency around sensitive issues to ad-based revenue streams and
words like “Ad” or “Sponsored post”.
such as political ads. other ways to monetize content, but
Publishers are fighting back with ad
success has been slow. Google intro-
Projects like Accelerating Mobile reinsertion software like PageFair and
duced Google Contributor in 2014 as
Pages (AMP), have vastly improved Sourcepoint.
a way for readers to pay microfees to
the performance of pages and adver-
publishers based on how often they
tisements on mobile. Since its intro-
What’s Next visit.
duction in 2015, 31 million sites have
adopted AMP including publishers Historically, security and privacy con-
like Twitter, WordPress and LinkedIn. cerns have been the top motive for Watchlist
Post-GDPR, Google has announced ad blocking. Digital ads can spread
Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB);
it will stop mining gmail for user data viruses and malware and they can
retargeting companies (Criteo;
and non-personal data ad targeting also store cookies to track and moni-
AdRoll); marketing automation soft-
products. tor activity across multiple webpages.
ware (Marketo, Eloqua, Hubspot, Ora-
Too many ads can also lead to slower
Traditionally, ad blockers work by us- cle, IBM Unica), creative optimization
load times, cluttered sites and higher
ing manually curated filter lists. These companies (AdExtent; CPXi); agency
data usage.
lists contain sets of rules that auto- trading desks (Cadreon, Xaxis); ex-
matically remove unwanted content Most ad blocking software works at changes (OpenX, doubleclick); media
such as advertisements, trackers and the browser level, with plugins such planning; ad networks (Alphabet, Am-
malware while the page is loading. as ad blocker or special browsers azon, Facebook); targeted networks;
These lists are open-sourced and such as Brave, Firefox, and Chrome mobile-specific networks.
maintained by a decentralized army Canary. Pi-hole is a network-based ad
of volunteers. blocker that launched in 2014 and has
amassed a cult following of devoted
Since 2016, Facebook has actively
users and developers. Pi-hole blocks
fought against ad blockers by obfus-
ads everywhere on the network:
cating its ad units as regular con-
browsers, apps, IoT devices. As every-
tent, this has led to a mini arms race
day consumers become more aware
with ad blockers developing more

BY ELENA GIRALT
SCENARIO
Near-Future Scenarios Optimistic Pragmatic with this audience. Millennials do

respond well to influencer market-
For Ad Blocking Ad blockers will be a manageable Ad blocking will be one of several
ing and peer to peer advertising.
threat for ad-supported media com- concerns that motivate radical chang-
Advertisers should take advantage
panies in the US. As media formats es in the industry. Standardized met-
of these trends as social media, user
such as voice and video grow in rics in advertising has long been a de-
generated content, and mobile device
popularity, publishers can make it bate but the next five years will finally
usage allow for more sophisticated ad
harder to skip over or block out those see some results. Clicks, likes, views,
products.
ad units. impressions will all be compared
with a standard unit that is accepted Catastrophic
Ad blockers work best when detect- across platforms. Campaigns will be
ing ad images and text from desktop evaluated by third parties such as IAB, Given what we know about national
devices. In the next five years, we will Nielsen, comScore or another start- security concerns and viral content,
likely see a consolidation in the digital up analytics company. Brand safety the digital ad industry is a few scan-
ad landscape, mainly with SSP, DSP, environments will mean that certain dals away from completely imploding.
yield optimizations, and ad exchang- pages are downgraded or blacklisted Cambridge Analytica and Russian
es. Large media companies will own altogether from the mainstream ad bots were just the tip of the iceberg in
and operate the entire pipeline, ensur- marketplace because of objectionable terms of manipulation of public per-
ing better brand safety environments content or unsecure site manage- ception and the info-wars of the 21st
and targeting despite lower volume ment. When ad campaigns fail to run century. As more scandals come to
and inventory. on TV or print, the publisher runs a light, all confidence in the industry will
“make good” campaign at no cost to erode. “Surveillance capitalism” will
Ad blocking browsers like Brave will
ensure the advertisers’ ad units are lose favor and a new wave of regula-
still be considered fringe. Mainstream
shown. This is not common practice tion will limit audience targeting and
audiences will be willing to share data
in the digital world but soon it will be digital marketing practices that are
and watch ads in exchange for their
as digital giants have to work hard to commonplace today.
favorite services to stay free such
keep their business.
as Instagram, Spotify, and Youtube. Companies realize it is not just their
Industry leaders like IAB and Google Despite all the industry changes, customer’s security at stake, but their
are improving ad standards across the there are changes in the audience businesses as well. Malware and ran-
industry which means that custom- behavior as well. Millennials are less somware delivered through fake ads
ers will be less inclined to install ad brand loyal and desensitized to ads. will become more and more costly,
blockers. It will be more and more difficult to more public, and more difficult to
prove the effectiveness of campaigns manage.

Policy and Regulation
089 Splinternets
090 Leaking
091 The First Amendment

in a Digital Age
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Splinternets
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight regulations that is recognized by ev- But it could also cause tremendous
eryone using the internet. In the past headaches for news organizations
Twenty years ago, the internet
decade, countries in Europe fought who distribute—and monetize—con-
emerged as a global space where
ISPs and search providers such as tent for a global audience.
information wanted to be free. Now,
Google and Yahoo in court and suc-
everyone has a different idea of how
cessfully banned content on a country Watchlist
our global information superhighway
by country basis. Citizens in coun-
ought to be regulated, and by whom. European Union; Google; Facebook;
tries where free speech isn’t valued
As a result, we are headed towards a Baidu; Twitter; Amazon; Microsoft;
could find their version of the internet
fragmented “splinternet” in the very Netflix; Apple; Federal Communica-
without a digital outlet for watchdog
near future. tions Commission.
We are headed towards a fragmented journalism.
“splinternet” in the very near future.
Examples What’s Next
When the GDPR launched in May
The companies involved have main-
2018, hundreds of legitimate news
tained that they’re “just technology
sites were blocked worldwide. We can
companies,” however their strictly-de-
already see that the internet looks
fined roles as arbiters of information
and behaves differently depending on
will be tested in courts in the coming
geography.
years.
Search is controlled by a small num-
Without coordinated effort, splin-
ber of American companies—there is
ternets will continue to proliferate
no United Nations or other interna-
in the years ahead. This could make
tional organization with any power
disseminating quality journalism more
to establish standards, norms and
difficult in regions around the world.

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Leaking
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

Not to be outdone by 2017, 2018 saw In June 2018 alone, the New York Have we reached peak leak? Who
a numerous number of major leaks Times received and published a leaked bears the obligation of ensuring the
from both the political and social confidential memo the President’s credibility of government institutions
world. With leaks making headlines attorneys had sent to the special remains intact? In a world where
on a consistent basis, it is important counsel; Tesla sued a former employ- “Fake news” has become an everyday
to remember that without leaks from ee for allegedly hacking their systems term, do media outlets risk losing
government agencies to the media, and leaking false information; and the their own credibility by continuous-
the government would effectively FBI’s Office of the Inspector Gener- ly publishing anonymously sourced
control what information the public al released its report on the Hillary leaked information? The next couple
A man wearing a Guy Fawkes mask
is aware of. The questions moving Clinton e-mail investigation where it of years through 2020 will represent
flashes a V sign while protesting the
forward should be framed in terms of outlined a string of leaked informa- a crucial moment for journalism and
arrest and detention of Chelsea Man-
what kind of information is permissi- tion. The Panama Papers were still leaks specifically. One obvious scenar-
ning.
ble to leak, are leaks happening solely making news with an additional 1.2 io is that we continue down the path
for political and or nefarious reasons, million documents released which dis- we’re currently on, with some major
and while technology can rapidly cussed the post-leak fallout amongst outlets publishing ‘leaked’ informa-
disseminate leaked information, what the Panamanian law firm involved and tion and accepting partisan flak from
more can be done to protect privi- its clients. While these leaks general- groups and individuals who disagree
leged information from being leaked. ly lacked the massive scope that we with the outlet’s perceived alignment.
had seen in the Edward Snowden and Another involves the government
Chlesea Manning leaks, the partisan choosing to tighten the reigns on
nature of many of the 2018 leaks leaked information in which we could
represents a major challenge to media see a deepening rift between career
and journalism moving forward. government officials and a bureaucra-

TREND 090
Leaking cy that is either trying to protect itself

or the institution’s credibility. In pre-
cont. vious years the major trends in leaks

were geared towards protecting the
leaker’s anonymity while still getting
the necessary information to pub-
lish the story. The major shift we see
today is the media needing to ensure
their credibility is not eroded by over
publishing or incorrectly publishing
leaked information.
Watchlist
News organizations worldwide.
Have we reached
peak leak?

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
The First Amendment in a
Digital Age REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight larger first amendment issues as they protected under the first amendment,
relate to media involve questions of while AI-created speech would not
While the first amendment pre-dates
what (if any) rights are afforded to AI, be afforded protections. This at-
the Cotton Gin (the most novel
and what liability (if any) can be im- tempt to compromise makes sense at
technological advance of its time!),
posed on the creators of technology, some level but could fall short when
today as much as ever, it plays an
algorithms and code. it comes to being able to fully give
instrumental role in terms of design,
credit (or blame) to content created
development, and the legal protec-
What’s Next by a human vs AI technology.
tions afforded to creators and users
of technology. Moving forward, there are numer- Yet another scenario would be de-
ous scenarios for how governments ciding that all AI-produced content is
In the near future, we are certain to
face thorny legal questions about free
Examples choose to protect speech created by considered free speech. Supporters
AI or automated devices. The most of this view contend that the first
speech and AI. It is important to make clear that the
restrictive scenario would involve gov- amendment does not limit speech to
first amendment relates to govern-
ernments deciding that first amend- that created by humans hence any
ment suppression of speech but not
ment protections do not extend content produced by a voice interface
private entities. If Facebook or Twitter
beyond human produced speech. This or bot should be protected. While on
decided to block all politically related
scenario is unlikely due to the fact one hand this opens the possibility to
posts because it could not sufficiently
that some human programming does all content being considered speech,
weed out “fake” posts, they would
go into bot creation, and would mean if AI-created content is protected as
be making a business decision to
that a string of different technological speech, the legal entities producing
do so but not one that would raise
advances (such as voice) could be such content could be held liable if
first amendment issues. So, while we
afforded fewer protections. appropriate.
expect to see platforms tighten the
rules on what they deem permissible, A second scenario involves deciding None of these three scenarios pres-
they are fully entitled to do so. The that the human programmer would be ents a perfect solution. We are likely

TREND 091
The First Amendment to see some hybrids of these come

about as legal questions arise. Look
in a Digital Age cont. for media and journalism to be at the

epicenter of numerous legal questions
moving forward.
Watchlist
European Union; Federal Communica-
tions Commission; Google; Facebook;
Microsoft; Apple; Amazon; Snap;
Instagram; YouTube; Twitch; broad-
casters; newspapers; radio stations;
digital media organizations; Jack
Balkin, Knight Professor of Constitu-
tional Law and the First Amendment
at Yale Law School; Margot Kaminski,
Assistant Professor, Moritz College of
Law, The Ohio State University.

Security and Privacy
092 Compliance 097 Strange Computer 101 Anonymity

Challenges and Glitches Will Keep
Unrealistic Budgets Happening 102 Trolls
093 Differential Privacy 098 Proliferation of 103 Authenticity

Darknets, Aided By
094 Ransomware As 104 Data Retention
Cryptocurrencies
A Service
105 Ownership
099 New Open Source
095 Hacktivism On App Vulnerabilities 106 Encryption
The Rise
Management
100 The Right To
096 Targeted Attacks on Eavesdrop/ Be 107 Constant Audio
Digital Assistants Eavesdropped On Surveillance
108 Leaky Data

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
Security, Privacy and Data
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight policies, negligence or simple human

error. For example, company informa-
The tech industry is
It is difficult to overstate the im-
portance of security and privacy in
tion on an insecure web server can having an existential
result in a data breach. Hacks are the
today’s ever-connected digital world.
result of bad actors successfully ex- crisis about the
Tech giants, government regulators,
and everyday citizens are weighing
ploiting a vulnerability in a system or internet. Continue
stealing private information such as
in on a variety of issues ranging from
personalization to privacy, informa-
logins to break into a system. In 2017, with its current
tion security to censorship, transpar-
ransomware was one of the most
costly and widespread hacks, total-
business model, or
ency to national security. Larger me-
Hacktivists have launched DDoS dia organizations have the resources
ing over $2B in ransom payments for begin to develop
attacks like WannaCry and NotPeya.
attacks against governments, corpo- to tackle security and privacy issues
Companies have a responsibility to
newer models that
rations and banks. head on, while smaller newsrooms
will have a bigger challenge protect- disclose breaches and hacks alike. If give users greater
they fail to tell customers, companies
ing themselves and their customers
against security threats. can face fines of 4% of total revenue control over their
It is important to note that data
or $20 M. Yahoo and Uber have both own data.
been heavily criticized for failing to
breaches and data hacks are not the
fully disclose the extent of their secu-
same thing. Data breaches are often
rity scandals.
the result of bad data management

TRENDS 092 - 108
Security, Privacy 092 a decade. Only recently, has it been

implemented by companies like Ap-
and NotPetya. In England, WannaCry
shut down the computers in 80 med-
Compliance Challenges
and Data cont. and Unrealistic Budgets
ple and Google as a way to analyze
aggregate data without compromis-
ical centers, which resulted in hospi-
tals diverting ambulances and 20,000
The historical tension between securi- ing user privacy. Differential privacy is cancelled appointments. Hackers
ty and privacy will unleash new chal- achieved by strategically introducing deploy malicious tools to hijack data,
lenges in the near future. Consumers random noise into the dataset. It is effectively locking out systems and
are shedding more data each day, and most useful when answering simple devices, until a fee is paid. Since cash
as more connected devices enter the (low-sensitivity) queries. It’s good for and online bank transfers are easy
marketplace, the volume of available finding out traffic patterns in Google to track, the currency of choice is
data will balloon. Yet those organiza- Maps, the most popular emoji for now bitcoin, which moves through an
tions creating devices and managing iPhone users, and ride sharing trends encrypted system and can’t be traced.
consumer data aren’t planning future across Uber’s global network while The emergence of the blockchain and
scenarios. Off-the-shelf compliance keeping individual user behavior cryptocurrencies have transformed
checklists won’t cut it going forward. anonymous. The US Census Bureau ransomware into a lucrative business.
Managers will need to develop and will be using differential privacy in the Simply backing up your data probably
to continually update their security 2020 Population Census. won’t be enough of a failsafe going
policies—and they’ll need to make the forward. Researchers have already
Differential privacy is limited in what
details transparent. Most organiza- found “doxware” floating around the
it can do, even for the handful of tech
tions aren’t devoting enough budget internet—rather than simply holding
giants that have enough information
to securing their data and devices. your data hostage until you pay up,
to do it right. Apple has differentiated
Organizations that haven’t carved they threaten to publish it all to the
itself from its competitors by integrat-
out enough budget for IoT security web, for everyone to see.
ing differential privacy into its Safari
will find themselves dealing with vast
browser and Google uses its own
recalls, remediation and lawsuits. The 095
differential privacy tool called RAP-
General Data Protection Regulation
POR. It is important to remember this Hacktivism On The Rise
(GDPR) promises a significant head-
method is still evolving. Depending on
ache for compliance officers and risk Hackers-turned-activists have had a
applications and data sets, differential
managers, who must ensure that the busy few years, working for causes
privacy is harder to maintain when
policies and procedures for govern- they believe in. They launched DDoS
variables are correlated.
ments, companies, nonprofits and attacks against governments, cor-
news organizations are current. porations and banks. They infiltrated
094 the campaigns of both Hillary Clin-
093 Ransomware As A ton and Donald Trump. Hacktivist
Differential Privacy Service organizations, including Anonymous,

WikiLeaks and DC Leaks, see them-
We have recently seen the spread of
Differential privacy as a mathematical selves as durable forces of change.
ransomware like WannaCry, Petya
concept has been around for over

TRENDS 092 - 108
Security, Privacy Glamourized by the TV show Mr.

Robot, hacktivism is on the rise,
kitchen to a friend of theirs in anoth-
er state, it was because of a glitch in
often for illegal activities. People go
there to sell and buy drugs, guns,
and Data cont. and given heated political tensions

during a year in which many elections
its system. Intel, the second largest
chipmaker in the world after Sam-
ammunition, security exploits (mal-
ware, ransomware) and your hacked
are being held, we’ll likely see more sung, received a lot of criticism after a data (passwords, credit card numbers
operations being carried out. Hacktiv- 22-year-old Google engineer discov- and more). Cryptocurrencies have
ists will use their skills to help shape ered a massive security flaw in the fueled activity in the dark corners of
local, state, national and international chip design. The flaw was based on a the internet, since they’re encrypted
politics, conversations and business “speculative execution” function and and make tracking transactions nearly
practices. was soon patched. Recently, Barclays, impossible. You can’t just hop on to
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America a darknet the way you Google your
096 and HSBC all experienced technical high school sweetheart. To access the
glitches that prevented customers hidden crime bazaars, you need spe-
Targeted Attacks on Digi-
from accessing account information, cial software such as Tor or Freenet,
tal Assistants and in some cases, wouldn’t allow you need to know where you’re head-
Now that digital assistants (DAs)— them to made deposits or withdraw ed, and you do need a bit of technical
Alexa, Siri, Cortana, Google—have money. Spaceflight startup Rocket knowledge. It isn’t illegal to take a
moved from the fringe to the main- Lab failed to launch during a 10-day walk through dark marketplaces. But
stream, we can expect to see target- window due to unforeseen technical there’s plenty of good activity that
ed attacks. Whether they target the glitches. Glitches often have to do takes place: whistleblowers hoping to
assistants or their hardware (Ama- with degraded network connectivity shine a light on wrongdoing, political
zon Echo, Apple HomePod, Google or a miscalculation of the bandwidth dissidents looking for asylum, and
Home), it’s clear that the next frontier needed. But a lot of times, glitches investigative journalists hunting down
in hacking are DAs, and this should result from newer technologies, which leads. As cryptocurrencies gain popu-
be especially concerning to media we are learning break in unexpected larity and as the ecosystem blossoms
companies. ways. to include more than just Bitcoin,
we’re likely to see more activity in
097 098 darknets. Activists with legitimate
Strange Computer Proliferation of concerns will advocate for new layers
of protection, while law enforcement
Glitches Will Keep Darknets, Aided By will receive training on how to navi-
Happening Cryptocurrencies gate the dark web. For government
Glitches are problems that don’t have Many people confuse the deep and law enforcement, the challenge
an immediate, obvious cause but web—hidden parts of the Internet of training is that it is static. Those
nonetheless can cause frustrating that aren’t usually indexed by search accessing darknets are typically also
problems. When Alexa accidentally engines—with darknets, which are the ones building them.
sent a recording a couple had in their niche spaces promising anonymity

TRENDS 092 - 108
Security, Privacy 099 and make sense of how their data

is exchanging hands. A debate over
easier to leak sensitive information,
troll social media users, and leave
New Open Source App
and Data cont. Vulnerabilities
consumer rights will heat in the near
future: should consumers be given the
disparaging or libelous comments all
over the internet. In 2015, we forecast
In 2017, a data scientist revealed right to eavesdrop on what their own that most anonymous sharing apps
a new kind of malware capable of devices are saying, and who else is won’t survive—indeed, Secret shut
infecting OpenAI Gym, an open- listening in? down, while Yik Yak came under fire
source toolkit for machine learning for allowing cyber-bullying and for
algorithms. It’s just one example of a failing to prove that users real iden-
booming market for malicious tools Should consumers tities really are being protected. Our
that exploit vulnerabilities in open
source applications and software.
be given the right desire to post content anonymously
won’t abate, even as our desire for
As the AI ecosystem grows to in- to eavesdrop on verification grows.
corporate more open source code
and community-built tools, it will be
what their own
102
especially important to spot problems devices are saying, Trolls
in advance. Many organizations use
open source tools, and in the coming and who else is Trolling is a specific type of cyber-bul-
lying that often involves spamming,
years they will need to perform daily–
not occasional–security checks.
listening in? hate-speech, doxxing attacks, and
other forms of harassment. Con-
trolling trolls online has forced many
100 101 media outlets to take a position on
The Right To Eavesdrop/ Anonymity the line between freedom of speech
Be Eavesdropped On Anonymity is one of the digital and censorship. In the past year, Twit-
As we connect more and more devic- trends we’ve been tracking as it has ter, Facebook, and Instagram have all
es to the Internet of Things—fitness evolved during the past decade. The updated their community standards
trackers, mobile phones, cars, coffee world needs anonymity, as it enables to limit hate-speech. Facebook’s AI
makers—those devices are having whistleblowers to come forward, and algorithm DeepText was first intro-
extended interactions with each other it shields those who otherwise might duced in 2016. It has since been rolled
and the companies who make them. be persecuted for their beliefs. Digital out on Instagram and Messenger to
Our devices aren’t just talking to each anonymity allows us to band together detect and reduce offensive language.
other anymore. They’re talking to in times of need, whether that’s to This year, Twitter acquired Smyte,
one another, learning about us, and raise money for a good cause or to a software startup that focuses on
starting to talk about us. Increasing- push back against injustices. However, spam, abuse, and fraud. Reddit has
ly, consumers are being left out of just as the Future Today Institute fore- banned groups like r/incels for violat-
the conversation, unable to listen in cast earlier, anonymity also means it’s ing the site’s community standards.

TRENDS 092 - 108
Security, Privacy And yet, neo-Nazi site Daily Stormer

resurfaced in February 2018 after
clickbait sites in Macedonia to a new
type of fabricated media: videos.
is collected and monetized by large
companies. You technically own the
and Data cont. being effectively shut down by their

domain host. State-sponsored troll-
Deepfakes are computer-generated
face-swap videos. The trend orig-
photos you post to Facebook and
the videos you upload to YouTube.
ing is most often linked to Russia but inated on Reddit in late 2017 and You do not own the site analytics that
according to research from Oxford amassed over 80,000 subscribers be- these tech giants make available to
University, 28 countries and counting fore getting shut down. Authenticity you. In a world where every device
have cyber troops of humans and startup Trupic has raised over $10M in is smart and connected, surveillance
bots for the purpose of manipulat- seed funding to combat manipulated is constant and ownership is unclear.
ing public opinion on social media. images or videos. Facebook, Apple, and Amazon have
(For further reading, we recommend all introduced facial recognition fea-
accessing Oxford’s full report “Troops, 104 tures or stand-alone products. The
Trolls, and Troublemakers.”) Media ACLU publicly criticized Amazon’s
Data Retention
organizations, especially news sites, Rekognition software as being heavily
strive to maintain an objective, unbi- The European Union law General Data marketed to national security clients.
ased position in moderating online Protection Regulation (GDPR) gave
every global media organization a
conversation. Google’s Perspective
wake up call, and perhaps a much
106
API has increased the comment
needed standard for data retention Encryption Management
moderation capacity of sites like
Wikipedia, NYT, The Guardian, and policies. As large tech giants are We’ve seen dozens of big attacks in
the Economist with machine learning updating policies to comply with the the past 24 months, and yet many of
and AI. regulation, smaller media organiza- the organizations we entrust with our
tions that depend on reporting and data are either not using encryption
analytics are feeling the pinch. You- or are using tools that are out of date.
103 Tube announced that starting in July Hackers know this, so we should ex-
Authenticity 2018, it would delete analytics reports pect more attacks in the coming year.
Facebook has partnered with the after 60 days. While encrypting data makes it harder
Poynter Institute’s International to hack, encryption can also make it
Fact-Checking Network to combat 105 harder for staff or consumers to make
fake news on its platform. However, legitimate use out of the data. In the
Ownership
the partnership itself has been diffi- near-future, companies will need to
cult to monitor and further illustrates In the legal sense, data ownership devote serious resources into shoring
Facebook’s commanding influence has typically referred to IP or copy- up their digital security, or risk losing
over digital media. right data. The rise of wearable smart millions of dollars cleaning up after a
devices and IoT have made people breach.
Authenticity in the media has
more aware about how their behavior,
branched beyond fake news from
health statistics, and online activity

TRENDS 092 - 108
Security, Privacy 107 108

Constant Audio Leaky Data
and Data cont. Surveillance Consumers are growing weary of
With new smart speaker technology “open source” websites, especially
and better machine learning systems, those using their data. Open source
public areas are prime spots for sur- genealogy website GEDmatch allows
veillance. China has already deployed users to voluntarily share their genet-
networks of speakers that eavesdrop ic profiles for free, as a way to find
on conversations to extract meaning. relatives and trace their genealogies.
In 2018, Walmart patented technology GEDmatch was used by law enforce-
to listen in on the interactions be- ment to track down Joseph James
tween store guests and employees, as DeAngelo, the suspected Golden
well as ambient noise—clothing being State Killer who over a period of years
moved on and off racks, items being brutally raped 45 women and killed
selected from shelves, and the click- more than dozen people. He himself
ing sounds we make on our mobile never sent in a biological sample, but
devices. All of this noise can be used it turns out that someone connected
to hunt for insights. But it also raises to him did. That case reveals that if
questions about privacy. someone you know—or someone who
might in some way be connected to
you—submits their information to an
open source website, it can be traced
back to you.

HACKER TERMS AND LINGO YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR 2019
Adware Black hat Bug Deep web/net and Dark web/ net
Software that automatically gener- A malicious hacker; someone who A flaw or problem in a program that The deep and dark net/web are
ates online ads; it can also include hacks for personal gain. can be harmless or might allow hack- actually two different things, though
spyware that tracks your browsing ers to exploit a system. they’re often conflated. The deep net
Bot
habits. It’s because of adware that or deep web is the vast trove of data
Bots are automated programs that Compiler
many people are turning to ad block- that isn’t indexed by search engines.
ing software. (see the earlier “Block- performs a simple task. Some— A program that translates source Spreadsheets, databases and more
ing the Ad Blockers” trend.) simple chatbots, for example—are code into executable machine lan- that are stored on servers make up
completely harmless. Other bots can guage. Compilers are used to surrep- this space. The dark web/ net is
Anonymous be programmed to repeatedly guess titiously allow hackers into various made up of sites that are invisible
A collective of hackers, best known passwords so that a hacker can break systems without changing the source unless you know how to use a special
for its use of the Guy Fawkes mask into a website. code, making it easier for them to get network, such as Tor, which knows
and distributed denial of service into a computer or network without
Botnet how to find the dark side. Once there,
(DDoS) attacks. Anonymous typically being noticed. you’ll find what you might expect:
uses the hashtag #Ops when an- A botnet is a group of computers
that are being controlled by a third Cookie pirated software and content, job
nouncing a new campaign. Past ops ads for hackers, illegal drugs, human
included a takedown of the Church party, and are being used for any A small file sent from your comput-
trafficking, and worse.
of Scientology and the Westboro number of nefarious purposes. For er’s web browser to a server. Cookies
Baptist Church. example, malware installed on your help websites recognize you when Denial of service attack (DoS)
computer can run, undetected, in the you return, and they also help third This is when a hacker sends so many
Attribution background while hackers use your parties track audience. requests to a website or network that
Researching and tracking back the machine as part of a large spamming
Cracking the traffic temporarily overwhelms
origins of an attack. network. the servers, and the site or network
A basic term that describes break-
Backdoor Brute force attack ing into a security system. Anyone
goes down.
Developers intentionally install back- This type of attack is a laborious, “cracking” a system is doing so mali- Distributed denial of service at-
doors into firmware so that manufac- methodical process where a hacker ciously. tack (DDoS)
turers can safely upgrade our devices uses software to automatically guess
Crypto This is a DoS using a battalion of
and operating systems. The challenge every password it can to gain un- machines.
is that backdoors can also be used sur- authorized entry into a network or Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art
reptitiously to harness everything from computer. and science of encrypting data—as DEF CON
our webcams to our personal data. well as breaking encryption. This is a big, annual conference for
hackers that attracts people from

all over the world. Discussions range End-to-end encryption Hactivist Lulz
from highly technical and academic
When an encrypted message is Someone who hacks for social or A play on “lol” or “laughing out
to those about policy. It takes place
scrambled on both ends, as it is sent political reasons. loud,” black hats often use the term
in Las Vegas every August.
and again as it is received. “lulz” to justify malicious work.
Honeypot
Digital certificate LulzSec (“lulz security”) is yet an-
Exploit A system or network designed to
These authenticate and approve the other offshoot of Anonymous, and it
The general term for leveraging a look like a high-value target, but was credited with the massive Sony
identity of a person, organization or
vulnerability in a piece of code, soft- was instead built to watch hackers Pictures hack.
service.
ware, hardware or computer network. do their work and learn from their
Doxing techniques. Malware
Firewall
Any software program that’s been
When hackers root out and publish
A system of software and hardware InfoSec
personally-identifying information designed to manipulate a system,
that’s designed to prevent unautho- This is an abbreviation for “informa- by stealing information, augmenting
about someone online.
rized access to a computer or com- tion security.” Companies and profes- code or installing a rogue program.
Dump puter network. sions that work within cybersecurity Rootkits, keyloggers, spyware and
are known as InfoSec.
The term for a trove of data released Grey hat everyday viruses are examples of
by hackers.
Hackers are just like the rest of us. IRC malware.
Dumpster diving Some have malicious intent, others Internet relay chat protocol (IRC) has Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks
Organizations and individuals who just want to fight the bad people, and been around forever. It’s the commu- This occurs when a hacker imperson-
don’t consistently use a shredder are some...have a certain tolerance for nication system used to have conver- ates a trusted connection in order to
opening themselves to dumpster div- moral flexibility. Gray hats will use the sations and share files, and it’s still steal data or information or to alter
ing, which is exactly what it sounds tools and sensibilities of a black hat used by hackers. communications between two or
in the pursuit of justice.
like: hackers go through garbage Jailbreak more people.
looking for any information that will Hacker A way of removing the restrictive Metadata
help with an exploit.
This term means different things to manufacturer’s code from a device so This is the data that explains what’s
Encryption different people. People who tinker that you can reprogram it to function in another set of data, such as a jpeg
Using special code or software to with code, to purposely manipulate as you desire. photo, or an email, or a webpage.
it, are hackers. Some are good, and
scramble data so that it cannot be Keys Password managers
read by a third party, even if it is some are bad. In popular culture,
“hacker” has taken on a distinctly The code that, just like a physical key, These are third-party tools that
intercepted.
negative connotation. is used to lock or unlock a system, you entrust your passwords to. Just
encrypted message or software. remember one master password,

and use it to unlock a database of all and Facebook bios lately. PGP is a to access your office computer while to baby monitors, medical devices,
your other passwords, which should basic method of encrypting email away from work, you’ve used a RAT. thermostats and any other connected
allow you to use a completely dif- (and other data). In oder to receive But RATs can be malicious, too. Just device. It’s intended to help people
ferent password for every site and and read the message, your intended imagine a hacker using a RAT to take learn how to secure their devices, but
service you use. While managers recipient must use a private key to over your workstation. obviously it can also be used against
are a good idea in theory, many are decode it. them. (see http://shodan.io)
 Ransomware
cloud-based. If a hacker gains access
Phishing This is malware that allows a hack- Sniffing
to your password manager, you’re in
big trouble. If you do use one, make We’ve all seen a phishing attack at er to break into your computer or When you were a kid, if you drove
sure to use complicated password least once. They usually come in network and then take away your around your neighborhood looking
at least 36 characters long with lots the form of an email from a trusted access until you pay a specified fee for open WiFi networks, you proba-
of special characters, numbers and contact. Once you open the message or perform a certain action. bly used a little device or a special
or attachment, your computer, your computer program. Those are exam-
capital letters. Root
data and the network you’re on be- ples of sniffers, which are designed
Patch come vulnerable to attach. The root is the central nervous sys- to find signals and data without
An after-market fix to address vulner- tem of a computer or network. It can being detected.
Plaintext install new applications, create files,
abilities.
This is text without any formatting. In delete user accounts and the like. Spearphishing
Payload the context of cybersecurity, it also Anyone with root access has ubiqui- A more targeted form of phishing to
The part of a computer virus that is refers to text that isn’t encrypted. tous and unfettered access. smaller groups, typically within social
responsible for the primary action, Sony Pictures storing its passwords networks or work environments.
Rootkit
such as destroying data or stealing and email addresses in a basic Excel
Rootkits are malware designed for Spoofing
information. spreadsheet is an example of plain-
text. root access. Often undetected, root- In general, anytime data is changed
Penetration testing kits start running when you start your to mimic a trusted source, it’s being
The practice of trying to break into Pwned computer, and they stay running until spoofed. Changing the “From” sec-
your own computer or network, in South Park fans will remember you turn your machine off. tion or header of an email to make it
order to test the strength of your Cartman using this word. It’s geek look as though it was sent by some-
Shodan
security. speak for “dominate.” If you’ve been one else. Black hats spoof emails by
hacked, you’ve been pwned. In Japan, a “shodan” is considered impersonating people you know, and
PGP the first degree (read: lowest level) then launch phishing attacks.
PGP stands for “Pretty Good Priva- RAT of mastery. In cyberspace, Shodan
cy,” and you’ve probably seen a lot of RATs are Remote Access Tool. If is a search engine for connected Token
PGP numbers showing up in Twitter you’ve used a remote login service devices, allowing hackers access A small physical device that allows

a trusted, authenticated user to use virus.

a service. Tokens are stronger than
Vulnerability
passwords alone, since they require
both the password and the physical A weakness in computer software
device to gain access. the hackers can exploit for their own
gain.
Tor
White hat
The Onion Router, otherwise known
as “Tor,” was originally developed by Not all hackers are bad. White hats
the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory work on highlighting vulnerabilities
to route traffic in random patterns so and bugs in order to fix them and
as to confuse anyone trying to trace protect us.
individual users. The Tor Project is Worm
the nonprofit now in charge of main-
Worms are a certain kind of invasive
taining Tor, which is used by both
malware that spreads like a virus.
white and black hackers, as well as
journalists and security experts. Zero-day exploits
Verification In the hacking community, zero days

(also written as “0day”) are prized
Ensuring that data, and its origina-
tools because they are undisclosed
tors, are authentic.
vulnerabilities that can be exploited.
Virtual Private Networks Once the flaw is revealed, program-
Virtual Private Networks, or “VPNs,” mers have zero days to do anything
use encryption to create a private about it.
channel for accessing the internet. Zombie
VPNs are necessary when connecting
Just like the White Walkers in Game
to public networks—even those at
of Thrones, but machines! A com-
airports, hotels and coffee shops.
puter, connected device or network
Virus that’s been infected by malware and
Malware intended to steal, delete or is now being used by the hacker,
ransom your files. Mimicking the flu, probably without your knowledge.
this type of malware spreads like a

About The Authors
Lead Author Co-Authors Art Direction and Design

Amy Webb Elena Giralt Marc Palatucci Emily Caufield
Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist. Elena Giralt is an emerging technolo- Marc Palatucci is a media and pub-
She is a professor of strategic fore- gies and blockchain strategist with a lishing strategist. He graduated from Production Coordinator
sight at New York University’s Leon- background in public journalism. She New York University’s Gallatin School Cheryl Cooney
ard N. Stern School of Bausiness and graduated from Santa Clara Universi- of Individualized Study, with a degree
the CEO of the Future Today Insti- ty with degrees in French and Polit- in Linguistics and Languages, and he
tute. Webb was named to the Think- ical Science and holds an MBA from holds Santa Clara University with de-
ers50 Radar list of the 30 manage- New York University’s Leonard N. grees in French and Political Science
ment thinkers most likely to shape Stern School of Business, where her and he is a May 2019 MBA candidate
the future of how organizations are research and course of study focused at New York University’s Leonard N.
managed and led and won the 2017 intensively on blockchain technology. Stern School of Business.
Thinkers50 RADAR Award. She is the
bestselling, award-winning author of Roy Levkowitz Kristoffer Perez
The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Roy Levkovitz is a strategist and Kristofer (Kriffy) Perez is a man-
Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, business development specialist who agement consultant with a decade
a book about how to find and track focuses on the design and develop- of experience in financial services
trends, and the upcoming book The ment of technology and its role in across Europe and the Americas. He
Big Nine: How The Tech Titans & supplementing the human experience specializes in customer-facing inno-
Their Thinking Machines Will Change rather than solely supplanting it. He vation and product strategy. Based
Humanity. graduated from Emory University in New York City with over 15 patents
with a degree in Political Science and filed, he is a global entrepreneur
holds an MBA from New York Uni- who seeks to define how technology
versity’s Leonard N. Stern School of impacts society. He graduated from
Business. Lehigh University with degrees in
Mechanical Engineering and Business
and holds an MBA from New York
University’s Leonard N. Stern School
of Business.

About The Future Today Institute
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute helps leaders and their organi-
zations prepare for complex futures. We focus exclusively on how emerging
technology and science will disrupt business, transform the workforce and
ignite geopolitical change. Our pioneering, data-driven forecasting method-
ology and tools empower leaders to make better decisions about the future,
today.
Our forecasting methodology has been featured in the MIT Sloan Manage-
ment Review and in the Harvard Business Review, and it is taught at universi-
ties around the world. FTI clients and partners include government agencies,
Fortune 100 companies, investment firms, news and entertainment media
organizations and associations. Our focus is technology, and we intentionally
work with a wide variety of organizations to enable the transfer of knowledge
and best practices across industries.
Reliable strategic foresight depends on both ingenuity and rigorous evalua-

tion. Our work is always done in teams comprised of trained futurists as well
as subject-area experts, technologists, designers, process-thinkers and cre-
ative minds. FTI is based in New York City and Washington, D.C.

Disclaimer
The Future Today Institute’s 2019 Journalism, Media Industry Trends Report
relies on data, analysis and modeling from a number of sources, which in-
cludes: sources within public and private companies, securities filings, pat-
ents, academic research, government agencies, market research firms, confer-
ence presentations and papers and news media stories. The content herein is
curated in part from the Future Today Institute’s annual Trends report, which
is now in its 11th year of publication. Our reports are occasionally updated on
the FTI website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are

referenced in this report and are highlighted with an asterisk in the appen-
dix. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities listed in this
presentation.
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their
respective owners and who do not endorse the statements in this report. All
rights in marks are reserved by their respective owners. We disclaim any and
all warranties, express or implied, with respect to this report.

We invite you to learn and use the
tools of a futurist.
Amy Webb’s new book: THE SIGNALS ARE TALKING:

Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s Mainstream arrives
at a fortuitous moment, as it gives critical guidance on
how to think like a futurist in order to most accurately
answer pressing questions about the future of emerg-
ing technologies, science, our economy, political sys-
tems, and civil liberties.
• Washington Post Bestseller “A rare treasure: a “[The Signals Are “A logical way to
• 2017 Thinkers50 substantive guide written Talking] provides several sift through today’s
Radar Award Winner in a narrative that’s a brain-bending future onslaught of events
delight to read.” possibilities...Webb’s and information to spot
• Winner, 2017 Gold
Axiom Award stellar reputation in this coming changes in your
—Christopher Graves,
Global Chair, Ogilvy red-hot field should corner of the world.”
• Fast Company’s Best
Public Relations generate demand.”
Books of 2016 —KIRKUS
—Booklist
• Amazon’s Best Books
of 2016

Companies, 3 Gimbals Audioburst Capella Space Inc
360 Profilms Auphonic Cardano
Organizations, Abra Austrian Institute of Technology Carnegie Mellon University
Universities and Accent Advanced Systems

AdEx
Automated Insights
Axel Springer
CBS Television
Chartbeat
Government AdExtent Axonify Chatfuel

China
Agencies AdRoll Baidu
Advance Publications BBC Chinese internet authorities
Mentioned Advanced Media BBDO Circos VR

Aerial & Maritime BBH Citibank
In Our 2019 Agora BBVA Civil
Journalism, Airbus D&S Bertelsmann College of Charleston

AlgorithmWatch.org Binded Comcast
Media and Alibaba Bing Comcast NBC Universal
Technology Alphabet BLIP Systems ConsenSys

altMBA Blockstack Consumer Physics
Industry Trends Amazon Blogger Coral Project
Report. Amazon Web Services Bloomberg Cornell University

Android Blue Sense Networks Coursea
Apple BlueCats Cox Media Group
Apple’s iBeacon Boeing CPXi
Aruba Brave browser Criteo
Asahi Shimbun Company Brown Institute at Columbia Univer- Critical Mass
sity
Associated Press Currency
Cadreon
Astro Digital Custos Media Technologies
California Polytechnic University
Astrocast CyLab Biometrics Center at Carnegie
Camera Culture Research Group at Mellon University
AT&T
the MIT Media Lab
DARPA

Companies, Decent Federal Communications Commission Hera Systems
Deep VR Fitbit Honeycomb
Organizations, Delft University of Technology Fleet Space HP
Universities and DigitalGlobe

Discovery
Gannett
Garage Band
HQSoftware
HTC
Government Disney Garmin Huawei

Hubert Burda Media
Agencies Dolby Geekie
Doubleclick Gelo Hubspot
Mentioned Dreambox General Electric Hulu

Droga5 GeoOptics IBM
In Our 2019 Duke Getty IBM Research
Journalism, Duke University Gimbal IBM Unica

E.W. Scripps Glimworm Beacon IBM Watson
Media and Early Warning Golem.network iFlytek
Technology Earthcube Goodby Silverstein & Partners Imax

Eko Google Immersion
Industry Trends Electronic Frontier Foundation Google Play Inception VR
Report. Eloqua GoPro Industrial Light and Magic

EOS Grand View Research ING
Epic Games GridCoin Innerspace VR
ESPN Grupo Globo Instagram
Estimote GSD&M Intel
Ethereum Harvard University Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
European Union HarvardX Internet Archive
Everwise Hearst Corporation Intrepid
Facebook Hearst Ventures Investigative Reporters & Editors
FaceTec Helios Interactive IOTA

Companies, Jigsaw Megvii Neurable
Kanagawa University Melcher Media Neuralink
Organizations, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Meredith Corp New York Times
Universities and Kepler Communications

Kind Ads
MetaX
Michigan State
News Corp
NewsDigest
Government Knewton Microsoft Newsela

Newspapers
Agencies KnuEdge MIT
Kodak Coin MIT CSAIL Nextar Broadcasting Group
Mentioned Kontakt.io MIT Media Lab Nielsen

Lawrence Livermore National Labo- Monero Nike
In Our 2019 ratory
Morpho Noveto
Journalism, Lenovo
Narrative Science NovoEd
Leo Burnett
NASA Ames Research Center NRL Naval Center for Space
Media and LG
National Emergency Address NSLComm
Technology Libsyn Database

Nuance Communications
Light Sail VR National Geospatial Intelligence
Nvidia
Industry Trends Lightning Labs
Agency
Oberthur Technologies
National Institute for
Report. Line
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Computer-Assisted Reporting Oculus
National Instruments Ogilvy & Mather

Macromedia University of Applied
National Public Radio OneWeb
Sciences
National University of Defense OpenX
Magic Leap
Technology (China)
Oracle
Mailchimp
Naval Postgraduate School
Orbital Insight
Marketo
NEC
Osram
Mastercard
NEO
Oxford University
MatchMaker Exchange
Netflix
Pandorabots
MDA
NetIQ
PayPal
MediaOcean
Neura

Companies, Pearson Russia SpaceKnow
Perception Squared Rutgers University SpacePharma
Organizations, Philip Merrill College of Journalism at RYOT SpeakPipe
the University of Maryland
Universities and Planet
Samsung
Santa Clara University
Spire
Spotify
Government Planetary Resources

Santander SRI International
Po.et
Stanford Computational Journalism
Agencies
Satellogic
Pocket Lab
SenseTime
Mentioned Polytechnical University

Sensible Vision
Stanford University
PRI Stanford University Computational
Sensorberg GmbH
In Our 2019 ProPublica
Shanghai Engineering Center for
Imaging Lab
StartVR
Journalism, PRX Microsatellites (China)
Steem.io
Qstream Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong
Media and Qualcomm Shodan
Steemit
Stitcher
Technology Quartz Sinclair Broadcast Group
Substack
Quora SingularDTV
Industry Trends RadioPublic Sky and Space Global
SuperPhone
Survios
Report. Raycom Media
Razorfish
Skype
Slack
Synopsys
TaKanto VR
Readable.io Snap
Tamedia
Reddit Socure
Targeted networks
REDEF Group SoftBank Capital
Technische Universitat Berlin
Reuters SONM
Tencent
Reverge VR Sony
The Aerospace Corporation
Revue SoundCloud
The Coral Project
Rewind Space and Missile Defense Command
The Guardian
Rewordify Space Exploration Technologies Corp
The Information
RSK Space Systems Loral

Companies, The Ohio State University University of Southern California Wevr
The Onion University of Texas at Austin WikiLeaks
Organizations, Thingful University of Tokyo Wix.com
Universities and Three One Zero

Time Inc
University of Washington
Univision
Wolf 359
WordPress
Government Time Warner UPort World Building Institute

Xaxis
Agencies TinyLetter Urbs Media
Tokyo Institute of Technology US Air Force Xiaomi
Mentioned Tow Center for Digital Journalism Valve Yahoo

at Columbia University
Vaultitude Yomiuri Shimbun Holdings
In Our 2019 Transcelestial
Venmo YouTube
Journalism, TRON
Verizon Zeiss
Tronc
Viacom
Media and Tumblr
Vice
Technology Twilio
VirtualSKY
Twitch
Visa
Industry Trends Twitter
Viveland
Report. U.S. Government Accountability

Office
VML
Vox
Ubisoft
VRNISH
Udacity
Wall Street Journal
Under Armour
Washington Post
University of Birmingham
WeChat
University of British Columbia
Weibo
University of California-Santa Barbara
Weiden+Kennedy
University of New South Wales
(Australia) WeMedia
University of Pennsylvania Wesleyan

CONTACT INFORMATION
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hello@futuretodayinstitute.com
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www.futuretodayinstitute.com

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2019 Trend Report

and build upon the material Share Commercial Sharing

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To meaningfully plan for the future, organizations

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© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 006

This is the second annual edition of

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 007

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 008

Ask the right questions to determine

Answers What is the future of X?

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 009

Every organization should continuously monitor weak

Begin by asking two important questions:

1. Does your organization need specific, tactical answers to a question with

Each research mode requires a different approach:

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 010

Foresight Mode information that are far afield of your

Discovery Mode specific question, ask and answer the

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 011

9. How does this trend inspire my team/ organization?

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 012

We recommend using our 2019 Tech Trends Report as part of a formalized

01 Key Insight 03 What’s Next 05 Years On The List 06 Action Meter

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 013

Narratives help illuminate our possible futures.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 014

We encourage you to use our Tech Trends Report High

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND

For that reason, the Future Today Institute created

Low UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND IN THE MARKET High

“Does the market want it”

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 015

A trend is a new manifestation of

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 016

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 017

Key Insight resents many things, even as the field

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 020

Artificial Intelligence cont. will accomplish a specific task. How

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 021

Key Insight Examples NLG To Grow Audience

NLG has been applied most frequent- What’s Next

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 023

Optimistic Natural Language Generation Pessimistic Scenario—Bias in NLG Reduces

In family settings, parents may implement content guidelines for smart

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 024

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 025

the specter of audio fraud—what

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 026

human environments—and to interact compute power and the volume

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 027

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 028

need to do next, sometimes before

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 029

Key Insight What’s Next from artificial narrow intelligence to

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 030

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 031

Will Your Bot Be Biased?

• How well do you know the training

• Does your bot clearly explain where

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 032

Artificial 020 cussions. You, or someone you know,