CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF INFLATION,

ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXPORT IMPORT OF

GOODS AND TAX RATE AGAINST TAX
REVENUE IN THE STATEASEAN

Name :Muhammad Nur Faqih

ID : 008201800010
Major : Class 6 Accounting
 CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF INFLATION,
ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXPORT IMPORT
OF GOODS AND TAX RATE AGAINST TAX
REVENUE IN THE STATE
ASEAN

Muhammad Nur Faqih

(Major Accounting, Business Faculty, President
University)

Abstract
“This study aimed to determine the affect of inflation, economic growth,
export import of goods and tax rate to the tax revenue in Asean countries. This
research was a quantitative study by using primary data of inflation, economic
growth, export import of goods, tax rate, and tax revenue obtained through the
World Bank website ie http://data.worldbank.org. The sample used in this study
was the ASEAN countries from 2011 to 2016. This study using pearson
correlation analysis with EVIEWS tools. The results showed that Export Import
of Goods has a positive and significant correlation to the tax revenue of
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. Economic Growth
has a positive and significant corelation to tax revenue Indonesia, Malaysia,
Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. Tax Rate has a positive and significant
correlation to the tax revenue of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and
the Philippines. Inflation had negative and significant correlation to the tax
revenue of Indonesia”.
Keywords: inflation, economic growth, tax rate, export import of goods, tax
revenue.

INTRODUCTION
Since the early 1980s, the Indonesian government can no longer rely on state
revenues from the oil and gas sector because of falling international oil prices (Sinaga, 2010).
One source of state revenue that has become the mainstay of the government since then is
tax. From the overall state revenue, revenue from the tax sector is a very potential source of
income and plays an important role in financing the country's development. Indonesia's
revenue is dominated by taxes, but the ratio of tax revenues compared to GDP, better
known as the tax ratio, is still low compared to ASEAN countries.
On the other hand, the use of tax ratios as a measure of tax revenue performance is
also debated because it is contradictory to other economic data and facts. Imam Sugema
(Tempo, September 7, 2004, in Setiaji's research, 2005) questioned high tax revenues but
was oriented towards low economic growth, as indicated by the fact that during the new
order, the tax ratio was 7.4 percent but economic growth (economic growth ) reached 6.1
percent. During Abdurrahman Wahid's administration, the tax ratio reached 10.7 percent but
economic growth fell to 4.8 percent, and during the Megawati administration, the tax ratio
reached 13.5 percent, while economic growth continued to decline to 4.2 percent. In the
Sunarsip article "Mega Facts and Mega Illusions" in the Republika Daily on September 8,
2004, he stated that measurements based on nominal numbers tend to be biased because
they do not consider aspects of inflation.
In Chenery's (1975) study, in line with the increase in income, the economy of a
country can shift from the one originally relying on the agricultural sector to the industrial
sector. The description of the condition of a country's economic structure can be seen
through the contribution of each economic sector to the formation of GDP. And the higher
contribution of the industrial sector, it can indicate the progress of the country's
development (Kaufmann, 2012). ASEAN countries can be classified as developing countries
because of the high contribution of the industrial sector.
Every individual who pays taxes in a country hopes that the funds they provide to the
state can be a source of funds that can be used for their country's economic development,
because the main goal of economic development is to achieve a prosperous, just and
prosperous society (Holik, 2005 ) Cobham (2007) and Fjeldstad (2008) also say, "Being a
major and vital source of revenue, a sound taxation system is imperative for the public
finances of a country and improving citizen participation whether that is in any stage of the
progressive process, developing, developed or transitional. ". Therefore, tax revenues must
be monitored properly so that the country's development needs can be financed and the
 rest can become state savings. Caroll (2008) found evidence that a low tax rate affects
taxpayers to report greater income / taxable income, so it can be concluded that the policy
of the amount of tax rates also has an effect on maximizing the potential of a country's tax
revenue.

Based on the background above, the formulation of the problem in this

study is:
1. Does inflation correlate with tax revenue in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Thailand
2. Does economic growth correlate with tax revenue in Indonesian, Malaysia, Singapore,
Philippines, and Thailand
3. Does export import of goods correlate with tax revenue in Indonesian, Malaysia, Singapore,
Philippines, and Thailand
4. Does tax rate correlate with tax revenue in Indonesian, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, and
Thailand

LITERATUR REVIEW
Inflation
Inflation is interpreted as increasing prices in general and continuing continuously.
The price increase of just one or two items cannot be called inflation except if the increase
extends (or results in an increase in price) to other goods (Bank Indonesia).
Mishkin (2008) defines inflation as an increase in the price level continuous and
continuously influencing individuals, business and government. This results in the weaker
purchasing power followed by the declining real value (intrinsic) of a country's currency.
The inflation rate is the general rate of price change for various types of products in a
certain time span for example per month, per quarterly or per year. The indicator for
calculating the inflation rate is the index consumer price (consumer price index). Mankiw
(2007) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator commonly used to describe price
movements. CPI is data that measures average price changes paid by consumers (in average)
for a group of goods and services certain. CPI can be used to measure monthly, quarterly
inflation semester, and yearly. Calculation of the inflation rate with the CPI proxy can
formulated as follows:

𝑡
𝐼𝐻𝐾 𝑡 − 𝐼𝐻𝐾 𝑡−1
𝐿𝐼 =
𝐼𝐻𝐾 𝑡−1
LIt: Period t inflation rate,
IHKt: period t Consumer Price Index,
IHKt-1: Period t-1 Consumer Price Index.
 Economic Growth
Economic growth is an increase in the ability of an economy to produce (potential
GDP) over time. Increased potential output occurs if there is an increase in natural resources,
human resources, or capital, or if there is technological progress. The two most frequently
used measures in economic growth are an increase in real GDP and an increase in output per
capita. From these two, the increase in per capita output has more meaning because it
indicates that more goods and services are available per person, and in this case also means
an increase in living standards in the economy.
The economy can be said to experience economic growth if the number of goods and
services increases. Per capita GDP growth is an indicator that can be used to measure a
country's economic growth. In addition, it serves to see the level of welfare of a country's
people from year to year.
GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by the middle-year population. GDP
is the sum of gross added value by all producer residents in the economy plus product tax
and subtracted subsidies which are not included in the value of products with WDI constant
prices (2016). Economic growth is formulated as follows:
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑟𝑖𝑖𝑙𝑡 − 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑟𝑖𝑖𝑙𝑡−1
𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ = × 100%
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑟𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑡−1
Based on this formula if there is an increase in GDP per capita compared to the GDP
per capita of the previous year it is said to experience positive economic growth. Conversely,
if there is a decrease in GDP per capita compared to the previous year it is said to experience
negative economic growth.

Export Import of Goods

Export is one of the economic activities carried out by selling or removing goods from
within the country and sent to other countries. Usually this trade is carried out if a country
produces a large number of goods. When that happens, the country can send it out country
because domestic needs have been fulfilled. If we carry out export activities on a large scale,
the shipment must be assisted by customs in the recipient country and the sender. There are
several terms and conditions that must be fulfilled in this activity to make it safer. Because
each country has different terms and conditions. The aim of this export activity is to make
the business world more conducive. In addition, this also aims to control the price of export
products in the country. On the other hand, this can also keep foreign exchange rates stable.
In addition, it is also useful to expand the market for Indonesia and increase foreign
exchange.
Import is the activity of purchasing services or goods from one country sent to
another country. If the shipping activities are large scale, we need customs assistance.
However, sometimes the government raises tax rates on imported products that must be
borne by importers. Consequently, imported goods will be more expensive because the
prices already taxed will also be borne by consumers. So it's not surprising that imported
products are priced higher than their local products. In addition, the government usually also
sets a quota limit or the number of imported products. The purpose of this activity is to
strengthen the balance of payments, reduce foreign exchange outflows abroad and meet
domestic needs. In addition, imports also provide benefits such as obtaining raw materials
for a product limited number in the country.
Tax Rate
It is not easy to impose taxes on the public. If too high, people will be reluctant to pay taxes.
If it is too low, then the development will not work because the funds are lacking. Experts
say that a low tax rate affects taxpayers to report greater taxable income. Therefore, the
policy of the size of the tax rate affects the efforts to maximize the potential of a country's
tax revenue. Principles that must be
fulfilled namely:
1. Legal Principle: Every tax collection must be based on law.
2. Legal Certainty Principle: Tax provisions must not cause doubt
3. Efficient Principle: Costs incurred in the framework of tax collection must be calculated
carefully so that the taxes received are not lower than the costs incurred ...
4. Non Distortion Principles: Taxes may not cause distortion in society, especially economic
distortions. The imposition of taxes should not cause economic sluggishness, such as
resource allocation and inflation.
5. Simple Principle: Taxes must be simple so that they are easy to understand both by tax
authorities and taxpayers.
Experts reveal that the relationship between tax rates and state revenues from the tax
sector occurs because changes in tax rates have two effects on state revenues, namely the
arithmetic effect and economic effect.
Tax Revenue
Tax is a contribution to the state (which can be imposed) which is owed by those who
are obliged to pay according to regulations, by not getting a return that can be directly
addressed and the point is to finance public expenditure expenses related to the state's duty
to run the government.
Tax collection system there are three uses, namely:
1. Official Assessment System
 Collection system that gives authority to the government (tax authorities) to
determine the amount of tax payable that must be paid by
2. Self Assessment System
Tax collection system that gives authority, trust and responsibility to the WP to
calculate, calculate, pay and report on the amount of tax to be paid.
3. Witholding System
Tax collection system that authorizes third parties to cut or collect the amount of tax
owed from WP.
Tax revenue is tax received by the central government and used for public interest,
fines and contributions social security is excluded from income. Tax refunds and
compensation are treated as deductions from tax revenues.
HYPOTHESIS
I will make 5 countries as samples. That is Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and
the Philippines. With these 5 samples I do a hypothesis. This is my hypothesis:
1) H1 = There is a correlation between inflation and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand.
H0 = There is no correlation between inflation and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
2) H1 = There is a correlation between economic growth and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
H0 = There is no correlation between economic growth and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
3) H1 = There is a correlation between export import of goods and tax revenue in the countries
of Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand.
H0 = There is no correlation between export import of goods and tax revenue in the
countries of Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
4) H1 = There is a correlation between tax rate and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
H0 = There is no correlation between economic tax rate and tax revenue in the countries of
Indonesian,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,and Thailand
 ANALYSIS DATA
I will use primary data and use numerical data.This data from world bank group (US)

Tax Export And Tax

Nations Years GDP(X1)% Inflation(X2)%
Revenue(Y)% Import(X3)% Rate(X4)%
Indonesia 2011 11.2 4.9 7.5 14.8 90.6
Indonesia 2012 11.4 4.7 3.8 1.6 90.8
Indonesia 2013 11.3 4.6 5 4.2 91
Indonesia 2014 10.8 4.1 5.4 1.1 91.4
Indonesia 2015 10.8 3.6 4 -2.1 92.6
Indonesia 2016 10.3 3.4 2.5 -1.6 94.9
Malaysia 2011 14.8 5.5 5.4 4.2 89.1
Malaysia 2012 15.6 3.6 1 -1.7 88.8
Malaysia 2013 15.3 3.8 0.2 0.3 88
Malaysia 2014 14.8 3.3 2.5 5 81.6
Malaysia 2015 14.3 3.6 -0.4 0.3 81.3
Malaysia 2016 13.8 3.6 2 1.1 80.3
Philippines 2011 12.4 5.8 4 -2.5 74.7
Philippines 2012 12.9 1.2 2 8.6 73.7
Philippines 2013 13.3 4.8 2 -1 73.6
Philippines 2014 13.6 5.2 3.2 12.6 76.6
Philippines 2015 13.6 4.1 -0.6 8.5 76.6
Philippines 2016 13.7 3.7 1.7 10.7 76
Singapore 2011 13.3 13.2 1.2 6.7 100
Singapore 2012 13.8 4 0.5 1.7 100
Singapore 2013 13.4 1.2 -0.2 5.9 100
Singapore 2014 13.7 3 -0.3 3.4 100
Singapore 2015 13.3 1.9 3.6 4.7 100
Singapore 2016 13.7 8.8 0 1.1 100
Thailand 2011 16.4 7.2 3.7 9.5 86.3
Thailand 2012 15.4 0.4 1.9 4.9 86.3
Thailand 2013 16.9 6.7 1.8 2.7 85.9
Thailand 2014 15.6 2.2 1.4 0.2 96.4
Thailand 2015 16 0.3 0.9 0.7 100
Thailand 2016 15.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 99

The descriptive statistic

Tax Revenue GDP

13.6966666 4.16333333
Mean 7 Mean 3
0.32186537 0.46548660
Standard Error 2 Standard Error 3
Median 13.7 Median 3.75
Mode 13.3 Mode 3.6
2.54957512
Standard Deviation 1.76292925 Standard Deviation 8
6.50033333
Sample Variance 3.10791954 Sample Variance 3
-
0.62023755
Kurtosis 7 Kurtosis 4.59235733
-
0.24052490 1.56145897
Skewness 9 Skewness 9
Range 6.6 Range 12.9
Minimum 10.3 Minimum 0.3
Maximum 16.9 Maximum 13.2
Sum 410.9 Sum 124.9
Count 30 Count 30
Inflation Export Import of Goods

Mean 2.27 Mean 3.59

0.36272119 0.81533224
Standard Error 7 Standard Error 3
Median 2 Median 2.4
Mode 2 Mode 1.1
1.98670581 4.46575861
Standard Deviation 6 Standard Deviation 4
Sample Variance 3.947 Sample Variance 19.943
0.17408084 0.12481609
Kurtosis 6 Kurtosis 1
0.64568829
Skewness 6 Skewness 0.8319476
Range 8.1 Range 17.3
Minimum -0.6 Minimum -2.5
Maximum 7.5 Maximum 14.8
Sum 68.1 Sum 107.7
Count 30 Count 30

Tax Rate

Mean 88.85
Standard
Error 1.671827069
Median 89.85
Mode 100
Standard
Deviation 9.156973977
Sample
Variance 83.85017241
Kurtosis -1.199368289
Skewness -0.272270188
Range 26.4
Minimum 73.6
Maximum 100
Sum 2665.5
Count 30

METHOD
Population : Tax revenue for all ASEAN countries in the past 6 years
Sample : Tax revenue for 5 ASEAN countries in the 2011-2016 period. These 5 countries are
Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore, and Thailand.
I chose this sample because the biggest countries in ASEAN were only 5experienced
progress both in terms of economy and taxation. And the 2011-2016 period was a very good
period to be studied, because this period the countries experienced progress both in terms
of economy and taxation. I chose panel data because in panel data there is cross section.And
with cross section can combine between contries and years. So I use Fixed Effect.But, before
that I must test the data with Chows test and Hausman test.If the probability(h1) < 0,005
then will be use Fixed Effect.After I know to use fixed,common, or random effect I will do
normality test.In this part I wll know that the data normal or not. In normality test, I will do 4
steps. That are normality test, Multikoliniearitas Test, Autokorelation Test (use Durbin
Watson table), Heteroskedastisitas Test (use Glejser). The next step do t test and P test. In
this test I will know that the variable correlation or not. And significant or not. After do it I
will make conclusions from the research. To analysis it I will use Eviews software.
 The data that I will analyze is tax revenue, GDP, export import of goods, and tax rate.
And the proxy for tax rate is paying taxes in countries.

TESTING METHOD
1. Test using commont effects, fixed effects, or random effects
To find out we use common, fixed, or random effects we must do:

A. Chow Test
B. Hausman Test
Chow test
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section fixed effects

Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.

Cross-section F 68.286892 (4,21) 0.0000

Cross-section Chi-square 79.186774 4 0.0000

Cross-section fixed effects test equation:

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 12/12/18 Time: 08:38
Sample: 2011 2016
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X1 -0.022338 0.123625 -0.180691 0.8581

X2 -0.424178 0.162004 -2.618319 0.0148
X3 0.048238 0.073603 0.655379 0.5182
X4 -0.004018 0.034904 -0.115105 0.9093
C 14.93635 3.216048 4.644317 0.0001

R-squared 0.219131 Mean dependent var 13.69667

Adjusted R-squared 0.094193 S.D. dependent var 1.762929
S.E. of regression 1.677849 Akaike info criterion 4.023914
Sum squared resid 70.37942 Schwarz criterion 4.257447
Log likelihood -55.35871 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.098623
F-statistic 1.753908 Durbin-Watson stat 0.356664
Prob(F-statistic) 0.169823

Chow Test: is a test to determine whether the common effect model (CEM) is the right
method of analysis, or fixed effect model (FEM). With the hypothesis as follows:
H0 = If Chi Square> 0.05, then CEM is accepted.
H1 = If Chi Square <0.05, then reject H0 and accept FEM.
In this test Chi Square <0.05, so I will use FEM. Before it,the data must be test with hausman
test.
Hausman test
The next step is time we will do a hausman test with eviews
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section random effects

Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.

Cross-section random 273.147570 4 0.0000

Cross-section random effects test comparisons:

Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.

X1 0.051901 -0.022338 0.000196 0.0000

X2 -0.082628 -0.424178 0.002304 0.0000
X3 0.043439 0.048238 0.000111 0.6482
X4 0.017455 -0.004018 0.000659 0.4029

Cross-section random effects test equation:

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 12/12/18 Time: 08:38
Sample: 2011 2016
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 11.96130 2.510621 4.764279 0.0001

X1 0.051901 0.038659 1.342559 0.1937
X2 -0.082628 0.067337 -1.227085 0.2334
X3 0.043439 0.023897 1.817749 0.0834
X4 0.017455 0.027616 0.632072 0.5342

Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

R-squared 0.944252 Mean dependent var 13.69667

Adjusted R-squared 0.923014 S.D. dependent var 1.762929
S.E. of regression 0.489148 Akaike info criterion 1.651021
Sum squared resid 5.024579 Schwarz criterion 2.071381
Log likelihood -15.76532 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.785498
F-statistic 44.46160 Durbin-Watson stat 1.864723
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

In the picture from the Hausman Test output with the Eviews above, that is, on the
probability value in a random cross section. This value is the value of p value from the
hausman test, where in this data the value is 0.0000. The value of P Value 0,000 is less than
 0.05, then accept H1, which means the best method that must be used is the fixed effect
rather than random effect.
The conclusion we have to make when we finish doing the hausman test with eviews is:
1. If the Hausman Test accepts H1 or p value <0.05, the method we choose is a fixed effect.
2. If the Hausman Test accepts H0 or p value> 0.05 then the method we choose is random
effect. Then we proceed with the Lagrangian Multiplier test to determine whether we still
choose Random effect or the Common effect.
Because the Hausman Test accepts H1, it uses fixed effects.
After we test the data with the chow test and hausman test, it turns out that the best is to
use a fixed effect.

Below is the result of data using fixed test.

 Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 12/12/18 Time: 08:39
Sample: 2011 2016
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X1 0.051901 0.038659 1.342559 0.1937

X2 -0.082628 0.067337 -1.227085 0.2334
X3 0.043439 0.023897 1.817749 0.0834
X4 0.017455 0.027616 0.632072 0.5342
C 11.96130 2.510621 4.764279 0.0001

Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

R-squared 0.944252 Mean dependent var 13.69667

Adjusted R-squared 0.923014 S.D. dependent var 1.762929
S.E. of regression 0.489148 Akaike info criterion 1.651021
Sum squared resid 5.024579 Schwarz criterion 2.071381
Log likelihood -15.76532 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.785498
F-statistic 44.46160 Durbin-Watson stat 1.864723
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Explanation of fixed effects :

1. Include Periods: Is the number of periods or sequences of time involved in the analysis.
Where in this panel data regression example, the period used is from 2011 to 2106. So the
number of years used in the analysis is as much as 6 years.
2. Include cross section: Is the number of cross sections or panels involved in the analysis.
Where in this panel data regression, the panel used is a country with a total of 5 countries.
3. Total Panel (Balanced) observations: is the number of observations involved in the analysis.
The term balanced means balance, that is, the amount of time (years) used by each panel
(country) is the same or constant. So the calculation is 6 x 5 = 30 observations.
4. Variable column: is a list of variables analyzed. Where in this example the panel data
regression uses Y as the response variable. While the predictor variables are X1, X2, X3, and
X4. And C as a residual or error from the panel data regression equation.
Fixed Effects Model Data Regression Coefficient
1. Coefficient: is the panel data regression beta coefficient according to the variables in the
variable column. This coefficient value is used to form the Panel Data Regression Equation.
2. Standard error: is the Standard Error of the coefficient value in the column coefficient.
3. t-statistics: is the value of t partial panel data regression according to each variable in the
variable column. This t value shows the partial effect of the predictor variable on the
response variable in the panel data regression model.
4. Prob: is the value of p value or the level of significance of partial t in column t-statistics. This
p value indicates the level of significance of partial t in order to answer the partial test
hypothesis. If the value of p value is less than the critical limit, for example 0.05, the answer
to the hypothesis is to accept H1 or which means the relevant predictor variable has a
significant effect on the response variable statistically. And vice versa if p value is more than
the critical limit then accepts H0 or which means the relevant predictor variable does not
have a significant effect on the response variable statistically.
The Equation of Fixed Effects

𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡

Remarks: for i = 1,2, ..., N and t = 1,2, ..., T.
Where N = number of countries and T = number of time periods(years)

𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽1 𝑥1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2 𝑥2𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3 𝑥3𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4 𝑥4𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖

Short analysis uses fixed effects

 R Square: is the magnitude of the influence or ability of predictor variables simultaneously in

explaining the response variable. If the value is more than 0.5, the ability of the predictor
variable is strong in explaining the response variable. Whereas conversely if the value is less
than 0.5, the ability of the predictor variable is not strong in explaining the response variable.
In this panel data regression, the value of R Square is 0.944252, which means that the
predictor variable is very strong in explaining the response variable.
 Adjusted R Square: is the magnitude of the influence or ability of the predictor variable
simultaneously in explaining the response variable by paying attention to standard errors.
Here the value is 0.923014, which means that the predictor variable is very strong in
explaining the response variable.
 F-Statistics: is the value of the F Test which is a simultaneous test from panel data regression.
This F value shows the significance level of the influence of the predictor variable on the
response variable. To use this value F must be compared with F Table. But to make it easier
to directly see the value of the Prob (F-Statistics).
 Prob (F-Statistics): is the p value F test which is the significance level of the F value, namely
to assess the simultaneous influence of predictor variables on the response variable whether
it is statistically significant or not. If the value of p value is less than the critical limit, then
 accept H1 or which means the simultaneous effect of predictor variables on the response
variable proved to be statistically significant. Vice versa if the value of p value is more than
the critical limit then accepting H0 or meaning the simultaneous influence of predictor
variables on the response variable does not prove statistically significant. In this experiment
the value of prob F is 0.00000, this proves that the simultaneous effect of predictor variables
on the response variable is significant setatistik.

2. Test For Classical Asumption

To classical test, we will use 4 test :
 Normalitas Test
 Multikoliniearitas Test
 Autokorelation Test (use Durbin Watson table)
 Heteroskedastisitas Test (use Glejser)
Normalitas Test
12
Series: Standardized Residuals
10
Sample 2011 2016
Observations 30

8
Mean -2.22e-17
Median 0.036845
6 Maximum 0.874881
Minimum -0.834948
4 Std. Dev. 0.416247
Skewness -0.025268
Kurtosis 2.816824
2

Jarque-Bera 0.045134
0 Probability 0.977686
-1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

On the above probability shows number 0.977686.

Because this number is above the standard value which is 0.05 then this data is normal.

Multikolinieritas Test

X1 X2 X3 X4
 X1 1.000000 0.103593 0.116900 0.025722
X2 0.103593 1.000000 0.23417 -0.091163
X3 0.116900 0.23417 1.000000 -0.211996
X4 0.025722 -0.091163 -0.211996 1.000000

In the date above, looked that all of data less than 0.8. So, the data free from
multikolinieritas problem.
Autokorelation Test (use Durbin Watson table)

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

R-squared 0.944252 Mean dependent var 13.69667

Adjusted R-squared 0.923014 S.D. dependent var 1.762929
S.E. of regression 0.489148 Akaike info criterion 1.651021
Sum squared resid 5.024579 Schwarz criterion 2.071381
Log likelihood -15.76532 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.785498
F-statistic 44.46160 Durbin-Watson stat 1.864723
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

In my data, Durbin Watson shows numbers 1.864723. Because I use 5 countries and 6 years,
then we have to multiply 5 and 6. The result is 30. In my data I also use 4 independent
variables. So to see the Durbin Watson table then I have to look at column 4 line 30.
In the table shows dl = 1.1426 and du = 1.7386.
To chase it I have to reduce 4 with dl and du.
The result, 4-dl = 4-1.1426 = 2.8574 and 4-du = 4-1.7386 = 2.2614
Autokorelation Doubtfull Free From Doubtfull Autokorelation
Negative Autokorelation Positive

1.1426 1.7386 1.864723 2.2614 2.8574

In this line show, if the data free from autokorelation.

Heteroskedastisitas Test (use Glejser)

 Dependent Variable: RESARBS
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 12/15/18 Time: 01:55
Sample: 2011 2016
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 1.781867 1.277864 1.394410 0.1778

X1 0.032614 0.019677 1.657480 0.1123
X2 -0.037362 0.034273 -1.090123 0.2880
X3 -0.018680 0.012163 -1.535767 0.1395
X4 -0.016330 0.014056 -1.161774 0.2584

In the data above all the probabilities of all variables show a number above 0.05 which is a
standard number, then the data is free fromheteroskedastisitas problem.

RESULT AND ANALYSIS

 Result Explanation :
To get the results of the hypothesis, I use the F test and T test
This data result of F test and T test

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 12/15/18 Time: 01:33
Sample: 2011 2016
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X1 0.051901 0.038659 1.342559 0.1937

X2 -0.082628 0.067337 -1.227085 0.2334
X3 0.043439 0.023897 1.817749 0.0834
X4 0.017455 0.027616 0.632072 0.5342
C 11.96130 2.510621 4.764279 0.0001

Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

R-squared 0.944252 Mean dependent var 13.69667

Adjusted R-squared 0.923014 S.D. dependent var 1.762929
S.E. of regression 0.489148 Akaike info criterion 1.651021
Sum squared resid 5.024579 Schwarz criterion 2.071381
Log likelihood -15.76532 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.785498
F-statistic 44.46160 Durbin-Watson stat 1.864723
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Explanation T test :
The t test in multiple linear regression is intended to test whether the parameters
(regression coefficients and constants) that are thought to estimate the equation / multiple
linear regression model are already the right parameters or not. The exact purpose here is
that the parameter is able to explain the behavior of independent variables in influencing the
dependent variable. The parameters estimated in linear regression include intercept
(constant) and slope (coefficients in linear equations). In this section, the t test is focused
only on the slope parameters (regression coefficient). So the t test in question is a regression
coefficient test. The results of the t test can be seen in the table above. If the value is prob. t
calculated (shown in Prob.) is smaller than the error level (alpha) of 0.05 (predetermined), it
can be said that the independent variable has a significant effect on the dependent variable,
whereas if the prob value is calculated greater than the error rate of 0.05 it can be said that
the independent variable has no significant effect on the dependent variable. The value of
prob t is calculated from the independent variable X1(GDP) of 0.1937 greater than 0.05,
coefficient has no significant effect to tax revenue. And X2(inflation) 0.2334 greater than
0.05 so,coefficient has not significant effect to tax revenue. X3(export import) 0.0834 greater
than 0.05 so, coefficient has not significant effect to tax revenue. So is X4(tax rate) 0.5342
greater than 0.05 so,coefficient has not significant effect to tax revenue.
Explanation for F test:
Test reliability of the model or feasibility test model or more popularly referred to as
the F test (there are also those who call it a simultaneous test model) is the initial stage of
identifying a regression model that is estimated to be feasible or not. Worthy (reliable) here
means that the estimated model is feasible used to explain the effect of independent
variables on the dependent variable. This test name is referred to as the F test, because it
follows following the F distribution whose testing criteria are like One Way Anova. The use of
software makes it easy to draw conclusions in this test. If the value of prob F is calculated
smaller than the level of error / error (alpha) 0.05 (which has been determined) then it can
be said that the regression model estimated is feasible, whereas if the value of prob F is
calculated greater than the error level of 0.05 then it can be said that the estimated
regression model is not feasible.
The F test results can be seen in the table above. Valueprob F (Statistic) is 0.000000
smaller than the significance level of 0.05 so that it can be concluded that the regression
model that is estimated to be feasible is used to explain the influence of GDP, inflation,
import export, and tax rate on tax revenue.
Coefficient of Determination
The coefficient of determination explains the variation in the influence of
independent variables on the dependent variable. Or it can also be said as the proportion of
the influence of all independent variables on the dependent variable. The value of the
coefficient of determination can be measured by the value of R-Square or Adjusted R-
Square. R-Square is used when only 1 independent variable (commonly called Simple Linear
Regression), while Adjusted R-Square is used when more than one independent variable.
The adjusted R-square value shows 0.923014 indicating that the proportion of
variables X1, X2, X3, and X4 has a value of 92.3%. This means that GDP, inflation, export
import, and tax rate have an influence on tax revenue by 92.3%. While the remaining 7.7%
are influenced by other variables.

Analysis Explanation :
 After estimating multiple linear regression models and testing the fulfillment of the
conditions (classical assumption test) and the feasibility of the model, then the last step is to
interpret it.
Intrepetation used includes two directions, namely sign and magnitude. Because the
data that I use is primary data, it can only be interpreted with a sign. The sign shows the
direction of the relationship. If it is positive then it is in the direction of the dependent
variable and if it is negative it is inversely proportional to the dependent variable.
In ASSEAN countries The increase in tax revenue is influenced by the increase of GDP
because coefficient of the data GDP showed 0.051901. This means showing positive
relationship.Likewise, the export import of goods showed 0.043439. This is means showing
positive relationship. And tax rate showed 0.017455 this means showing positive
relationship. The decrease in tax revenue is also strongly influenced by the increase in
inflation. Because coefficient of the data inflation showed 0.082628. this means showing
negative relationship. This can be proven by looking at the results of the analysis above.
In Indonesia, if GDP, export import goods, and tax rates increase, the tax revenue will
also increase. Because it shows a positive sign. But if inflation rises, tax revenues actually fall
because they have a negative sign
In Malaysia, if GDP, export import goods, and tax rates increase, the tax revenue will
also increase. Because it shows a positive sign. But if inflation rises, tax revenues actually fall
because they have a negative sign.
In Singapore, if GDP, export import goods, and tax rates increase, the tax revenue will
also increase. Because it shows a positive sign. But if inflation rises, tax revenues actually go
down because they have a negative sign.
In the Philippines, if GDP, export import goods, and tax rates increase, the tax
revenue also rises. Because it shows a positive sign. But if inflation rises, tax revenues
actually drop because they have a negative sign.
In Thailand, if GDP, export import goods, and tax rates increase, the tax revenue also
rises. Because it shows a positive sign. But if inflation rises tax revenues actually go down
because they have a negative sign.
It has been known that tax income in the major ASEAN countries over the past 6
years has been influenced by GDP, inflation, export import of goods, and tax rate of 92%.
That shows a significant number.

CONCLUSION
 The summary of all is that tax income in ASEAN countries is influenced by a number of
significant factors, namely GDP, inflation, import of goods, and tax rate with an effect of
92%.This is proven by making the Asean major countries as samples with a period of 6 years.
What I get from this research is how to do research, how to use software spss, stata,
and eviews that are very useful for my learning especially during thesis. And from all this I
learned about data. What are data panels, time series, and others.
The weakness in this study are that the data used is only 6 years, and the samples
used are only 5 countries. And also my lack of skill in using software.
My hope for further research is that I hope I can take more samples and have already
used software.

REFERENCES
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Inflation. (n.d.). Retrieved from The Worls Bank Data:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?view=chart
Export and Import of goods. (n.d.). Retrieved from The Worls Bank Data:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?view=chart
Tax Rate. (n.d.). Retrieved from The Worls Bank Data:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?view=chart