Link Chabahar with Gwadar: Iran tells Pakistan

New Desk -

March 13, 2018

In a three-day tour of Pakistan, the Iranian Foreign Minister invited Pakistan to participate in the port of
Chabahar. Dr. Javad Zarif, the Iraninan FM, also initiated discussion about the development of links
between Chabahar and Gwadar.

Dr. Zarif was scheduled to meet with his Pakistani counterpart, in addition to the Prime Minister of
Pakistan and other prominent ministers, address an economic forum as well as the Institute of Strategic
Studies in Islamabad. While speaking at the Institute of Strategic Studies, he stated, “We offered to
participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). We have also offered Pakistan and China to
participate in Chahbahar.”

Read more: Pakistani businessmen worry about Chinese takeover after CPEC

These statements are meant to allay Pakistani concerns about Indian involvement in the development of
the port of Chabahar. India has invested nearly $500 million in Chabahar port. The development of this
port in South-eastern Iran is part of India’s strategy to bypass Pakistan and establish trade routes with
the landlocked Central Asian Republics (CARs).

These land-based trade routes will, in turn, be connected with the Chabahar port. Previously, the only
real way for India to gain access to CARs was through Pakistan. NATO troops in Afghanistan also get
supplies through the port at Karachi. Pakistan fears that India may bypass and encircle it via what New
Delhi calls the International North-South Transport Corridor.

Pakistan is also concerned about espionage and subversive activities undertaken by Indian intelligence
officials that may be embedded in the staff working on Chabahar. Kulbushun Yadav is the most
prominent example. Yadav, the ex-Indian navy officer, established a business in Chabahar in Iran as part
of a cover to facilitate sabotage and subversion against Pakistan. An envoy from Iran at the time said
that Iran was ‘very accurately’ examining the affair.

Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatullah Khameini has spoken in support of the Kashmiri freedom struggle.
In February of this year, the Iranian Prime Minister Hassan Rouhani visited India at the invitation of
Narendra Modi. Rouhani’s visit spanned over three days and a number of agreements were signed
between Iran and India. The emphasis of these agreements was on the Chabahar port.

A leasing agreement was also signed between Tehran and New Delhi during Rouhani’s visit, according to
which India has operational control over part of the Chabhar port for the next 18 months. Although the
Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatullah Khameini has spoken in support of the Kashmiri freedom struggle,
Hassan Rouhani, during his tour to India, did not mention Kashmir, which is perhaps a sign of growing
Indo-Iran ties.

The Iranian foreign minister, however, clarified in his statements that Chabahar was not meant to
‘encircle Pakistan…strangulate anybody’. He also said that Iran would never allow its territory to be used
against Pakistan just like Pakistan would not allow its territory to be used against Iran. “Our relations
with India, just like Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia, are not against Pakistan as we understand
Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia are not against Iran,” he added.

Read more: CPEC: Pakistan’s quest for energy security

It is interesting to note that the Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Pakistan coincides with the visit of the
Imam of Kaab’a, who also met with the Prime Minister of Pakistan. The Imam-e-Kaaba has emphasized
that the Muslim world considers Pakistan its strength. He also reiterated that Kashmir is part of Pakistan.

In February last month, Pakistan sent a contingent of troops to Saudi Arabia on a training and advisory
mission as part of a long-standing defense cooperation agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
The two countries have enjoyed a close relationship for decades. Relations between Iran and Saudi
Arabia, on the other hand, have remained fraught ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979. The Crown
Prince of Saudi Arabia included Iran in his new definition of ‘axis of evil’. The two countries are strategic
competitors in a number of theaters, most notably in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and the broader middle-east in
general.

Read more: Why China needs CPEC?

The Foreign Minister of Pakistan addressed lawmakers in the National Assembly two days before the
beginning of the visit of his Iranian counter-part and assured that Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia are
strictly there for ‘internal security’ of Saudi Arabia. In what could easily be termed skillful diplomacy, the
Iranian Foreign Minister has likened Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia to Iran’s relationship with
India.

There are a number of avenues where Pakistan and Iran can improve their relationship. Both stand to
benefit from enhanced border security, increased bilateral trade, banking ties and the Iran-Pakistan gas
pipeline. The Prime Minister of Pakistan called on Dr. Zarif during his visit and expressed Pakistan’s
commitment to resolve these outstanding issues, in particular the IP-gas pipeline that has stalled due to
problems faced by the Pakistani side.

Trade between Iran and Pakistan stands at $1.2 billion. The Pakistani PM said that both countries must
make their efforts to increase it to $5 billion by 2021. The central banks of both countries, the State
Bank of Pakistan and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, need to establish ties that would
allow banks from each country to expand commercial ties across the border. A statement by the Foreign
Office (FO) said that the two sides agreed to continue engagement to enhance bilateral trade and
investment and concluding a Free Trade Agreement on priority basis.

Read more: Confront the Challenges: Engage Afghanistan, Protect CPEC

The two ports of Gwadar and Chabahar may become competitors in the not-so-distant future but it
need not be a zero-sum game. Connectivity between the ports and mutual economic cooperation under
the umbrella of CPEC can prove to be a win-win situation for both countries, provided that border
policing is foolproof. This would inhibit any potential subversive activity. Two new border crossings
between Iran and Pakistan also need to be properly developed as a priority.

The FO statement also added that ‘The Foreign Ministers underlined that as two brotherly neighboring
countries, Iran and Pakistan, would deepen connectivity between the two sister ports of Gawadar and
Chahbahar to benefit from their complementarities.’
The quest for water security

Chief Justice Saqib Nisar’s appeal for donations and participation in fund-raising events in the UK to
build dams and increase the country’s water-storage capacity has revitalised the debate about the need,
justification, feasibility and implications of constructing large water reservoirs in the country.

In this article, I will discuss the challenge of water scarcity in Pakistan, the factors responsible for it, and
the policy measures that the country can take to overcome acute water scarcity. I am also going to
discuss the global trends regarding construction of larger dams, and whether Pakistan can accumulate
sufficient finances through donations to successfully fund the construction of proposed water reservoirs.

In May 2018, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) came up with a somewhat
startling revelation that Pakistan is faced with a severe water crisis and it is estimated that there will be
very little or no clean water available by 2025 if tangible short-term as well as comprehensive long-term
measures are not taken.

Similarly, the IMF has warned that Pakistan is ranked third among countries facing water scarcity. It is a
precarious situation as the per capita water availability in the 1950s was approximately 5,000 cubic
metres per year, which has now declined to below 1,000 cubic metres per year. This is an internationally
recognised threshold of water shortage.

Climate change coupled with unabated deforestation, threats to the country’s glacial reserves, drying
lakes and rivers and poor water supply will severely affect agriculture, ecology and local biodiversity. It
must be noted that the previous government identified food, energy and water security among the
seven key pillars in its key long-term policy document ‘Vision 2025’. Similarly, access to clean water and
sanitation is also one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agreed upon by all UN member
states under the 2030 Agenda. It must be emphasised that Pakistan was the first country that adopted
the UN 2030 Agenda through a unanimous parliamentary resolution in February 2016. To achieve water
security and accomplish SDG 6, the country must come up with short- and long-term plans and
initiatives to address the challenge of water security.

However, due to our unsustainable and unregulated usage of water, where it is largely considered a
free-of-cost commodity, Pakistan has the fourth highest rate of water consumption across the world.
Comparing our GDP per capita and the consumption of water per unit of GDP, Pakistan is considered to
be among the most water-intensive economies in the world, as per an IMF report. There are various
factors responsible for this.
The country is an outdated agricultural economy, with an efficiency rate of a just over 50 percent. For
instance, out of the country’s fresh water resources, a colossal over 90 percent is consumed by the
agricultural sector. According to some estimates, about half of this precious water is wasted even before
it reaches the fields due to massive leakages in the feeble water-transportation infrastructure.

For example, about 100 million acre-feet of water (maf) enters the canal system where 40 million acre-
feet (maf) doesn’t reach the farm gate. The water volume wasted approximately amounts to the storage
capacity of five Kalabagh dams. While there will always be demands for dams, which are, of course,
necessary in its own place, there is a greater need to minimise the leakages and wastage of water
caused by dilapidated water-supply infrastructure as well as its unregulated free-of-cost extravagant
usage. And as for the remaining 50 percent of water that actually reaches fields, much of it is virtually
wasted by outdated practices in agriculture, such as flood irrigation.

The result is that Pakistan’s productivity per unit of water is 0.39 kilogrammes per cubic meters, which is
one-sixth of China’s and one-third of India’s. We need to think about how to improve our water
transportation system and usage efficiency. One solution could be a major overhaul in the country’s
water and agricultural infrastructure if we want to surmount the issue of severe water scarcity. Both
federal and provincial governments need to invest in initiatives that could minimise the current leakages
and wastages in water-transportation structures.

Apart from enormous wastage in the agricultural sector, a huge amount of water is wasted in our
unrestrained daily routine. For example, some estimates suggest that an average of 400 gallons of fresh
water is used to wash a car, over 10 gallons is wasted during a shower, and about four gallons while we
brush our teeth. While brushing their teeth, most people rarely turn off the tap. As a result, a
considerable amount of water is wasted.

All these are substantial statistics for a country of over 210 million people with relatively meagre natural
resources, including water. The situation looks all the more grave as we are aware that most of the
water consumed at household levels is primarily groundwater, which is considered to be a last resort if
the country runs out of water. Loosely regulated and ineffective water governance coupled with our
resistance to adopt latest technology, techniques and practices are some of the principal factors
responsible for the current situation.

A recent research study titled ‘Sustainable hydropower in the 21st century’, authored by professors at
the Michigan State University, has come up with some startling findings regarding the role of
hydropower and mega dams as sustainable and viable options of cheaper energy in the modern era.
The study states that hydropower remained one of the leading sources of renewable energy around the
globe, “accounting for up to 71 percent of this supply as of 2016”. Most of this capacity was developed
in Europe and the US in the 20th century when thousands of hydropower projects were successfully
executed. But unlike the trend in numerous developing countries across the globe, including Pakistan,
there is a completely contrary propensity in developed countries concerning the construction of larger
dams.

Various factors are responsible for this trend. These include the fact that there are no more suitable
sites available for dams and there are increasing environmental and social concerns about the
construction of larger dams. Nowadays, more dams are being removed in North America and Europe
than those that are being built, the study reveals. It further elaborates that dam removal rather than
construction has become the norm in North America and Europe because many of the reservoirs built
before 1950 are at the end of their useful lives.

The study argues that it would be too costly to repair these old dams as many no longer serve their
initial purpose, and their social and environmental negative externalities have become unacceptable.
However, unlike the US, some European countries with favourable topography and rain patterns – such
as France and Switzerland – continue to have hydropower as an important part of their energy mix
through technological innovations at existing dams.

In contrast, 3,450 dams have been removed to date in Sweden, Spain, Portugal and the UK. Similarly,
hundreds of dams have been demolished successfully in the US (a total of 546 from 2006 to 2014). On
average, over 60 dams are being removed in the US annually – a trend that started in 2006. It is because
the cost of repairing and renovating a small dam could be up to three times the cost of removing it.

However, because of diverse and acute need for cheaper energy, this situation stands in stark contrast
with what is happening in developing countries. For example, a total of over 3,700 dams that produce
more than 1 MW are either planned or under-construction primarily in developing countries. The
principal reason behind this line of thinking is that despite rising trends of using alternative energy
sources in developed countries, hydropower still represents the largest renewable source of electricity
(70 percent of the global production of renewable energy).

In addition, it is believed that less than 25 percent of the global hydro potential has been exploited to
date, and there is enormous potential in many developing countries. It is one of the key tenets of the
2030 Agenda, as agreed upon by all UN member states in 2015 at the 70th UN General Assembly
(UNGA), to substantially increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030.
It goes without saying that access to clean and affordable energy is among one of the 17 SDGs because
one in seven people still lack access to electricity and a majority of such people live in rural areas in
developing countries.

To be continued

America’s travails in Afghanistan

By Shahid Javed Burki

At some stage, Pakistani historians will need to find answers to a number of questions about their
country’s involvement in Afghanistan. Should Pakistan have gotten its deep involvement in America’s
war in Afghanistan? That began in 1979 when then president Ziaul Haq agreed to join the United States’
effort to remove from Afghanistan the invading forces from the Soviet Union. Had Pakistan stayed out,
would it have reduced the impact of the unending Afghan war on its society, economy and relations
with the world outside? The role that was assigned to Pakistan by the coalition in the fight against
Moscow has had lasting consequences for the country. Could Pakistan have charged the Americans for
the use of its airspace to ferry troops, equipment and supplies to and from Afghanistan? These are
important questions. They need to be asked and answered in order to formulate public policies designed
to benefit Pakistan and not necessarily aid the American effort in Afghanistan. But they need space not
available in a newspaper article. Today my focus will be on the developing situation in Afghanistan.

The American Afghan effort is floundering. Asked in an interview by The Washington Post why
Americans were still fighting in Afghanistan, President Trump’s answer reflected lack of understanding
on his part. He said he was continuing the military presence in Afghanistan only because experts told
him the United States needed to keep fighting there.

On November 25, the Americans lost three Special Forces soldiers when they went to the critically-
important province of Ghazni where the Afghan forces had come under a great deal of pressure from
the Taliban. This province is important since it is home to the Hazaras, the third largest ethnic group in
the country after the Pakhtuns and Tajiks. The Hazaras also have a presence in Pakistan’s Balochistan.
They follow the Shiite faith. Their province sits on the Kabul-Kandahar Highway that is an important link
between the country’s capital and its southwest. Ghazni city had fallen to the Taliban but had been
retaken by the Afghan forces. However, 18 of the 34 districts in the province are under the control of
the Taliban.
The Taliban are not the only dissidents of concern for the Americans. It appears that al Qaeda is staging
a comeback after having been all but wiped out of the country. It has resurfaced in the country’s
southwest not far from the border with Pakistan. And Islamic State has established itself in the country’s
southeast, again near the Pakistan border.

American casualties in the war were greatly reduced after the decision taken in 2014 by then president
Barack Obama to end American combat operations. Since then, 42 American soldiers have died — ten in
2015, nine in 2016, eleven in 2017 and twelve in 2018 thus far. But the Afghan forces have suffered a
great deal more. According to President Ashraf Ghani, 28,529 Afghan security forces have been killed
since 2015, an average of about 25 deaths per day. This is not a sustainable rate of loss.

There are now 14,000 American soldiers in Afghanistan — half of them are for providing logistics
support and training the Afghan forces. By comparison, there were 120,000 American and foreign
troops in the country when Obama took the decision to start pulling out. The Afghan American-trained
commando troops number 20,000 but are spread thinly in the 18 of the 34 provinces the government
still controls. They have some air support but it is not effective. The Americans generally don’t carry out
air strikes on behalf of Afghan troops unless they have their own people embedded with the local
forces.

That the buildup of the government forces has not impressed the Taliban was evident from the pick-up
in the attacks the insurgents have mounted in and around Kabul. The latest was on November 28 when
President Ashraf Ghani was speaking at a UN-sponsored conference in Geneva. The assault outside a
British security compound on the outskirts of Kabul sparked a gun battle that lasted for several hours
and killed 10 people. A few days before this attack, the Taliban had struck a gathering of Sunni Islamic
clerics in the capital. That had left 50 dead.

At the Geneva meeting, Ghani outlined a comprehensive five-part plan for peace talks with the Taliban.
He named a 12-member negotiating team and declared that his government was seeking a peace
agreement in which “the Afghan Taliban would be included in a democratic and inclusive society”. He
also indicated that the next election to the country’s presidency would be held on April 20, 2019 as
planned, dispelling the rumours that the government, given the deteriorating security situation, was
thinking of postponing it. The plan he outlined was aimed at building a lasting peace and could take as
long as five years to implement. It would start with negotiations among Afghans, then talks with
Pakistan and the United States, and extend to other foreign powers, presumably China, India and Russia.

It was far from clear whether the plan would be acceptable to the Taliban who had been indicating that
they did not consider the Ghani administration as legitimate, having been imposed on Kabul by the
Americans. The Taliban were willing to talk to the United States and had held several discussions with
the Afghan-born American emissary, Zalmay Khalilzad. What would be Pakistan’s involvement in this
process?

In a couple of meetings I had with Ashraf Ghani — one in Washington when he was leaving the World
Bank to join the government Hamid Karzai was putting together, and the other in Kabul when I went to
the Afghan capital at his invitation — I had suggested a comprehensive programme for developing the
tribal belt on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. The aim would be to create a new economy
which would provide well-paying jobs to the restive youth of the area. He was interested enough to ask
me to invite Imran Khan to visit him in Kabul. I passed on the message to Khan but he has still to act on
it.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 3rd, 2018.

Sanitation and poverty in Pakistan

Pakistan has one of the highest percentages of stunted children in South Asia. Nearly half of the
country’s children are at a risk of dying before their fifth birthday! If they are lucky enough to survive,
they are unable to live a healthy and active life. Alas, after 70 years of independence, a vast majority of
Pakistan’s rural population still lacks access to basic human, social and economic services!

The World Bank’s report ‘When Water Becomes a Hazard: A Diagnostic Report on the Status of Water
Supply, Sanitation and Poverty in Pakistan and its Impact on Child Stunting’ was released in the first
week of November and is a timely contribution to the situation. The report provides a picture of the
elite nature of social and economic services in the economy and its impact on the poor of the country.

One main focus of the report is on the widening rural-urban divide — in terms of the allocation of public
resources and the provision of basic health and sanitation services. This leads to different levels of
poverty persistence, poverty reduction and malnutrition in rural and urban areas of the country. The
report analyses how the poor quality of water, toilets, sanitation and inadequate hygiene conditions
causes child stunting and poverty, especially in rural areas.

The report, surprisingly, finds that head-count poverty has declined in the country by 35 percentage
points between 2001/02 and 2013/14, from 64.3% to 29.6%. This decline in poverty is in line with the
estimates presented in the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2015/16). However, it is less consistent with
other studies on poverty and the economic performance of the country for the referred period. Haroon
Jamal (2017) estimated that the incidence of poverty was 33% in 2001/02 and increased to 38% of the
population in 2015/16. The macroeconomic performance of the economy, the real growth in GDP and
the key economic indicators of the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors did not perform well
enough to provide a plausible explanation for any huge decline in poverty.

Despite variations in estimates, there is a general consensus that the incidence of poverty is high in rural
areas. Over three quarters of the country’s poor live in rural areas of the country. This divide is starker in
Sindh where the proportion of those living below the poverty line is 19% in urban areas and 50%, one in
two, in the rural areas.

The World Bank report traces the rural-urban divide in the provision of access to water supply,
sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services. Despite a substantial improvement in access to water and
sanitation, only a quarter of households had access to piped water in 2014/15. This access to
government-provided piped drinking water was four times higher in urban areas, 48%, than in rural ones
where it was 13%. Shockingly, the report finds that the provision of piped water in rural areas has
declined over the past decade. In rural Sindh, piped drinking water declined from 19% in 2004/05 to 8%
in 2014/15. Over two-thirds of households in the rural areas use hand-pumped water. The reliability of
the piped water is another concern: in rural Sindh and Balochistan, households received only 5-7 hours a
day of piped water.

The report finds that sanitation facilities improved substantially during the last decade. The rate of open
defecation declined from 29% to 13%. However, the main progress is reported in the flush-to-septic-
tank and flush-to-open-drain toilets. The number of toilets connected to a sewerage system increased
only marginally in rural areas of the country. In urban areas 74% of households had access to improved
toilets, whereas in rural areas it was only 46%. Worryingly, one in five rural households use open-
defecation toilets.

Access to flush toilets connected to sewerage remains negligible in rural areas of the country. In rural
Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the sanitation infrastructure was more dominated by flush toilets
connected to septic tanks, whereas in the rural areas of Sindh and Balochistan flush toilets were mostly
connected to open drain and pit latrines. In all the rural areas of the four provinces, there was negligible
connection of toilets with a covered drainage system.

The report reveals that half of children are stunted and one-third of children are underweight. It argues
that poverty has an impact on stunting because poorer neighbourhoods have poorer quality of
sanitation, and therefore higher levels of bacterial contamination of soil and water. Moreover, health
vulnerability and poor wash, the report argues, are the product of the underlying economic and
geographical inequalities in the country. Children in poorer households are four times more likely to be
underweight than those in households in the richest districts. At the provincial level, the report reveals
that the situation in Sindh has worsened during the last decade, as the number of stunted children is
increasing.
Public spending, the report finds, is highly biased in favour of provincial capitals. These receive the lion’s
share in provincial spending. The per capita share of expenses in Lahore is found to be 17 times higher
than other districts in the province. The highest disparity in the allocation of public funds, however, is
revealed in Sindh where the per-capita budget allocated to Karachi is 83% higher than the average to
other districts in the province. The report is silent on the slums of Karachi where the situation is as bad
as in most of the rural areas of the province.

The targeting of the spending is also found to be regressive, with poorer districts receiving a lower
allocation of resources. There are no clear criteria for taking into account the social, economic and
health deprivation of the population in the allocation of public resources. Even after the 18th
constitutional amendment and the decentralisation of resources since 2011/12, the report finds little
improvement in the allocation of resources and targeting of public spending, especially in Sindh and
Punjab.

The report provides serious food for thought in relation to public policy for improving sanitation services
and reducing poverty in the country. The PTI-led government, with the slogan of Naya Pakistan, needs to
spend a higher share of GDP, at least 1.4% annually, on public health services to fulfil its promise of a
healthy Pakistan, where its citizens will have access to safe water and basic sanitation services.
Provincial governments, especially in Sindh, need to rationalise and prioritise their allocation of
resources to increase spending on safe water and improved sanitation services and to target the poorest
districts, particularly those in rural areas, where urgent attention is needed to reverse the trend of
increasing stunting and poverty.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 30th, 2018.