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المجال14- الاحتمالات PDF
المجال14- الاحتمالات PDF
اﻟﻜﻔﺎءات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪﻓﺔ
ﻭﺼﻑ ﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ
ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺘﻪ.
ﻨﻤﺫﺠﺔ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻌﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ.
ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻤل ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺎﺘﻲ ،ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ
ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل.
ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ.
ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭ ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ.
ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺨﻭﺍﺹ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ
ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ.
ﺘﻌﻴﻴﻥ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ.
ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻤل ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺎﺘﻲ ،ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ
ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ.
Ãﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل اﻟﺘﻮاﺗﺮات ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ
Ãﯾﺪرج ﻣﻔﮭﻮم اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ و ﯾﻼﺣﻆ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء و اﻷﻣﻞ
اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺎﺗﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت و ﻛﺬﻟﻚ اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري
Ãﯾﻠﺠﺄ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎدﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮح و اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ و اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ
2
3 V1
2
3 V1
2
3 V1 V1
V1
2 tajribaty.com منتدى تبربت
ﺑﻘﺎء C 1ﻓﺎرﻏﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ nﻣﺮة ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ﻋﺪم اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﺴﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻓﻢ 1ﺑﻌﺪ nﻣﺮة أي إﺳﺘﻘﺮاره ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﻦ 2أو 3
n
2 2 2 2
P (V1 ) = × × ..... × =
14
3 4
3 244 3 3
3
nﻣﺮة
V1 ∩V 2 (2ھﻲ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ " :ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺾ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ اﻟﺴﻠﺘﺎن C 1و C 2ﻓﺎرﻏﺘﯿﻦ " أي أن ﻛﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺾ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻓﻲ
n
1
P (V1 ∩V 2 ) = اﻟﺴﻠﺔ C 3
3
V1 ∩V 2 ∩V 3 (3ھﻲ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﯿﻠﺔ أي P (V1 ∩V 2 ∩V3 ) = 0
2n − 1
P (V1 ∪V 2 ∪V3 ) = 3 (4
3n
M * (5ھﻲ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ " :ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺳﻠﺔ واﺣﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ ﻻ ﺗﺤﻮي أي ﺑﯿﻀﺔ "
* ) P (M ) = 1 − P (M ) = 1 − P (V1 ∪V 2 ∪V 3
* ﯾﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺠﺪوﻻ ﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ nأو ﺑﺎﻵﻟﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ Ti83+
أﻋﻤﺎل ﻣﻮﺟﮭﺔ : 2
اﻟﮭﺪف :اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ
(1ﺗﺤﻘﻖ Fﯾﻌﻨﻲ a − b ≤ n − 1و ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ a − b ≤ nو ھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻟﺸﺨﺼﯿﻦ ﯾﻠﺘﻘﯿﺎن ﻷن اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ وﻗﺘﻲ
ﻣﺠﯿﺌﯿﮭﻤﺎ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺑﻊ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ
(2إذا اﻟﺘﻔﻰ اﻟﺸﺨﺼﺎن ﻓﮭﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن a − b ≤ nأي أن Gﻣﺤﻘﻘﺔ
15n − 7 15n − 7
= xn = x nﻋﻮص ﺗﺼﺤﯿﺢ : (3
16n 32n
1 − n ≤ a − b ≤ n − 1أي أن a − n + 1 ≤ b ≤ a + n − 1
15n − 7
= xn ﺑﺘﻌﺪاد اﻟﺤﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ و اﻟﺤﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ (4
32n
15n + 7
= yn ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ (5
32n
15
=p ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل اﻟﻨﮭﺎﯾﺎت و اﻟﺤﺼﺮ ﻧﺠﺪ (6
32
5
=a 9 ، E ( x) = 6 8
12
،ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ6 × 5=30 : 62 =36 10ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ:
3 1
= ) p( A) = p ( B) = p (C = ) ، p( D) = p( E .(1 14
11 11
8 9 2
= )p( A .(4 ، = ) p( A ∪ B ∪ C .(3 ، = ) p( D ∪ E .(2
11 11 11
1 15
24
.(2 ،ﻨﻌﻡ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل . .(1ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل 18
= )Ω = {1,2,3} .(2 . p(3) = ، p(2
3 2 1
= )، p(1 .(1ﻷﻥ: 19
6 6 6
1 2 3 1 1
= ) p (C + = ، = )p( B) = ، p( A 20
12 3 4 2 2
43 212 124 238 212
.(3 ، .(2 ، ) ،ﺝ( ) ،ﺏ( ) .(1ﺃ( 21
124 293 531 531 531
B1
[ ]
= 1 − p ( A) + p ( B) − p( A ∪ B) = 1 − [0.44 + 0.63 − 0.52] = 0.45
، (5,7 ) ، (5,5) ، (5,2 ) ، (5,1) ، (2,7 ) ، (2,5) ، (2,2 ) ، (2,1) ، (1,7 ) ، (1,5) ، (1,2 ) ، (1,1) .(1 27
). (7,7 ) ، (7,5) ، (7,2 ) ، (7,1
6 1 4
= )p( D = ) ، p (C = )، p( B) = 0 ، p( A .(2
16 16 16
20 52 79 20
.(4 ، .(3 ، .(2 ، .(1 28
77 156 156 156
1 5 14 29
.(3 ، .(2 ، .(1
2 45 45
2
30ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺠﺭﺓ p( F ) = .(1
3
12 4 26
،ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ ﻤﺭﺘﻴﻥ= : .(2ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻭﺭ ﻭﺠﻪ :
27 9 27
.(3 ، P ( B) = 0.25 .(2 ، P (O + ) = 0.83 .(1 31
P ( Rh − ) = 0.2 × 0.2 + 0.25 × 0.15 + 0.45 × 0.17 + 0.1 × 0.1
P (O I Rh + ) = 0.45 × 0.83 .(4
1 1
.(4 ، .(3
2 2
.(1 33
%72
%31
%9 25%
%7 %54
%6 %14
%8
V H
%30
49 49
= ) P ( F ∪ Gmaj + ، P (G min) = 0.76 ، P ( F ) = 0.68 34
72 230
ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ :ﻋﻭﺽ 650ﻗﺎﺼﺭﺍ 65ﻗﺎﺼﺭﺓ.
50 .(1 35ﺤﺒﺔ
ﺩﺍﺌﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ
ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﻭﻻﻁﺔ 5 10 15
ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺭﺒﻰ 25 10 35
ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ 30 20 50
2
= P ( D) = P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A) + P ( B) − P (C ) = 0.9 ، P (C ) = 0.2 ، P ( B) = 0.7 ، P ( A) = 0.4 .(2
5
1
.(3
2
1 36
24
2
.(1 37ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ .(2 ، 15
5
9 2
.(2 ، 38ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ .(1 ، 28
14 7
3
. 0.15 .(2 ، = ) P (l ∪ c .(1 40
4
β −δ 1
G ; ، β + δ ≠ −1 .(1 52
β + δ + 1 β + δ + 1
.ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﻋﻭﺽ ﻨﺭﻤﻲ ﺯﻫﺭﺓ ﻨﻜﺘﺏ ﻨﺭﻤﻲ ﺯﻫﺭﺓ ﻨﺭﺩ ﻤﺭﺘﻴﻥ: ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ.(2
1 1 1
، ،
9 6 6
53
X 0 1 2 3
1 6 12 8
P(X=x)
27 27 27 27
13 1 3
E ( x) = .(3 ، X (Ω) = 0, ,1, , 2,3 .(2 : ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺠﺭﺓ ﻨﺠﺩ54
18 2 2
M(0,0),M(0,1),M(0,2),M(1,0),M(1,1),M(1,2),M(2,0),M(2,1),M(2,2) , .(1 55
10 2 1
E ( x) = ، P ( A) = ، P ( A) = .(2
3 9 3
X 0 1 2 4 5 8
1 2 1 2 2 1
P(X=x)
9 9 9 9 9 9
8 7 7 7
P ( D) = ، P (C ) = ، P ( B) = ، P ( A) = .(1 56
15 15 15 30
7
Pn = ، n =13 ﺃﻭn =14 ، n ﺘﺼﻭﻴﺏ ﻋﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ.(2
13
P6 = 0.05 ، P5 = 0.1 ، P4 = 0.4 ، P3 = 0.2 ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ، P1 = 0.1 .(1 57
P ( F ) = 0.6 ، P ( E ) = 0.55 ، P ( D) = 0.1 ، P (C ) = 0.25 ، P ( B) = 0.45 ، P ( A) = 0.4 .(2
X (Ω) = {40,−10,−100} .(3