Fuzzy Logic and Exponential Smoothing for Mapping
Implementation of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in
Surabaya
Mohammad Robihul Mufid, Nilla Rachmi Kusuma Saginta Putri, Arna Fariza, Mu’arifin
Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya, Indonesia
mufid@pasca.student.pens.ac.id, nillarachmi@it.pens.ac.id, {arna, muarifin}@pens.ac.id
Abstract— One of the infectious diseases found in
Surabaya is Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). Although
prevention has been carried out by the government, there are
still obstacles to determine the right handling because there
is no map visualization for its distribution and the condition
of the data itself is still not accurate. This study aims to
provide information about dissemination analysis in the
form of map visualization and forecasting that can help the
government to provide appropriate handling of dengue cases
was conducted. Fuzzy methods were applied in the Web
Geographic Information System and Exponential Smoothing
methods for forecasting. The data in this system is the
number of patients with DHF, the amount of population
density, the amount of rainfall, and the number of public
facilities taken from 2012 to 2017. The results show that
almost all sub-districts in Surabaya are DHF endemic areas,
by being differentiated into these areas which are safe, alert,
vulnerable, or need handling from the dangers of dengue
fever. While the forecasting results using the exponential
smoothing method, provide an accuracy of 55%.
Keywords— Geographic Information System, Fuzzy,
Exponentials Smoothing, Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever
I. INTRODUCTION
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is still one of the main
public health problems in Indonesia. DHF is a disease caused
by the dengue virus which is transmitted from person to person
through the bite of the Aedes mosquito. Aedes Aegypti is the
most important vector, but Aedes Albopictus can also be an
infectious vector. [1]
DHF is found in tropical regions, such as Indonesia, which
was first discovered in Surabaya at 1968. In Surabaya, dengue
fever cases and the distribution area are increasing year by year
along with mobility and population density increasement [2]. It
shows that dengue fever that threatens Surabaya residents is
very important to watch out for. Although prevention has been
done by the government with 3M (Drain, Close, Bury) and
fogging (fumigation), but sometimes the handling is still not
quite right. Because there is no visualization of DHF
distribution maps of the data that is owned by Surabaya City
Health Office and data condition is still not really accurate. A
number of studies have been conducted on the visualization of
the spread of DHF, the application of fuzzy logic and
forecasting techniques, including Latif et al. [3] proposed a
strategy to map the spread of dengue disease in Selangor,
Malaysia. By generating a risk map using GIS tools to identify
high-risk areas of DHF. The data used were dengue cases in
2012 obtained from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia. Analysis
is done using Moran's I, Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN),
Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and buffer analysis using
GIS. From the analysis using KDE, the results show that
several districts are classified as high risk areas namely
Ampang, Damansara, Kapar, Kajang, Klang, Semenyih,
Sungai Buloh and Petaling.
For forecasting techniques using the exponential smoothing
method have also been done by Chusyairi et al. [4] proposed a
study to predicting the missing service reports (E-Report) for
Banyuwangi Society in a period. The forecasting method uses
Single, Double, and Triple Exponential Smoothing.
Forecasting accuracy of detection is discussed using the Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The result shows
that Single Exponential Smoothing is considered an
appropriate method to forecast the missing reports of E-Report
Police Resort because it produces the smallest value of MAD
and MSE.
The exponential smoothing method was also carried out by
S. Abdullah et al. [5] proposed a study to determine the best
time series pattern and model for Tuberculosis (TB) cases from
2003 to 2010 in Kelantan and estimate the number of TB cases
for the next 2 years. The methods used are univariate modeling
(Naïve Method, Average Forecast, Exponential Leveling
Technique, and Box-Jenkins Method) which are applied to data
sets to determine the best forecasting model for data series. The
results show that based on 72 monthly data series of TB cases,
an increase in trend patterns was recorded. The Double
Exponential Smoothing technique was found to be the best
time series model compared to Single Exponential Smoothing.
Whereas for fuzzy logic implementations ever carried out
by Saint-Joan et al. [6] proposed a study using fuzzy expert
systems for decision making in geographic information
systems (GIS), because fuzzy logic and expert system
technology were available methods to approach human Where to calculate the forecasting value for the period t + 1
reasoning and increase intelligence levels in GIS. This system (Ft + 1), by adding up the smoothing constant (α) with the
calculates potential maps to provide solutions to problems with value (0 <α <1) multiplied by the actual value for the period t
the specification of problems provided first by the user and + 1 (Yt), then the sum of the forecasting values for period t
expert knowledge (by means of production rules). These (Ft).
experimental results are designed to provide users with a
decision-making environment for solutions to cartographic
b) Mean Absolute Error Method
problems that will be carried out flexibly.
The formula for Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is as follows :
Whereas in this paper, we propose to build an application
that can help to provide information on the spread of dengue
fever especially in Surabaya, and visualize it as well as (2)
information about how to handle and prevent the spread of
dengue fever so that this application can be utilized optimally. Where xi is the actual data, x is forecasting data, and n is
In this paper, we use the fuzzy method to determine the the number of errors.
vulnerability of each sub-district and using the exponential
smoothing method to forecast the level of vulnerability in each IV. SYSTEM DESIGN
sub-district in the following year. In this section will be explained about the design of our
system to build a system that can provide information about
II. OVERVIEW FUZZY LOGIC dengue disease, especially in the city of Surabaya by using
In this section, we explain fuzzy logic which will later be fuzzy methods to determine the level of vulnerability and
used to determine the level of DHF vulnerability in each sub- exponential smoothing to forecast DHF cases. Figure 2 shows
district. Fuzzy logic was first introduced by Lotfi Zaidah in the system design that we propose.
1965 [7]. This method uses artificial intelligence to make
decisions based on human thought in processing one or many
inputs. Fuzzy logic is divided into three stages, namely
fuzzification, fuzzy processing, and defuzzification. Figure 1
shows the fuzzy logic system architecture.

Figure 1. General System Design

a) Fuzzification : This phase involves changing the inputs

whose truth value is uncertain (crisp input) in the form of
fuzzy input.
b) Inference System : This phase is an analysis phase,
resulting in the fuzzy output, which utilizes fuzzy input
and fuzzy rules which have been determined in the earlier
phase.
c) Defuzzification : This phase changes the fuzzy output into
a crisp value based on the predetermined membership
functions.
III. OVERVIEW EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
In this section, we explain the exponential smoothing that
will be used to forecast DHF cases in each sub-district.
Exponential Smoothing is a procedure that is continuously
corrected evenly (on average) over time from time series data
in an exponential manner [8]. There are many types of
exponential smoothing, for what we use are as follows.
a) Single Exponential Method
Figure 2. System Process Diagram
The formula for single exponential smoothing is as following:
Ft + 1 = α * Yt + (1 – α) * Ft (1)
A. Data Input the four variables chosen, public facilities, population density,
Input data is variable data that affects the spread of DHF, rainfall and data on dengue fever patients will have a different
after going through the correlation process, which is the range of fuzzy sets. The stages of the Fuzzy process are as
process of finding out which data has the greatest correlation follows.
(relationship / relationship), the 4 factors that influence the
most are chosen.
1. Public Facilities (hospitals, schools, parks, places of a) Fuzzyfication
worship, markets). Fuzzification is a process to include the previous value of
2. DHF Victims the firm became the membership function of Fuzzy
3. Population Density Variables. After this process, each variable has a value of
4. Rainfall membership in accordance with the range that has been set.
TABEL 2. RANGE OF FUZZY MEMBERSHIP VARIABLES
B. Data Proccess
After all datas have been collected, with all the available Range of Fuzzy Membership
data we will find the correlation level, in which to look for No Fuzzy Variables
Little Medium Many
linkages and data relationships. The correlation value is -1 to 1.
The closer the value of 0 the smaller the data linkage, if the 1 DHF Victims 0-40 20-100 >100
correlation value approaches the value 1 then the data 2
Population
0-10000
5000-
>20000
relationship is positive or unidirectional and if the correlation Density 20000
value approaches -1 then the data relationship is negative or 3 Public Facilities 0-225 150-300 >300
opposite. Below is a table on the correlation of data on the
number of DHF sufferers. Rainfall 145,5-
4 0-160,5 >180,5
180,5
TABEL 1. HASIL KORELASI

No Data Correlation value The membership value of the fuzzy function in each fuzzy
1 DHF Victims 0.370960844 variable can be seen in this figure 4-7. The figure 4 illustrates
the diagram of membership function of fuzzy variable DHF
2 Population Density -0.077621016
victim. Where value a is 20, value b is 40, and value c is 100.
3 Public Facilities 0,104864198
4 Rainfall 0,235008

C. Display the Basic Map

Before processing the map data in the form of a map file
containing a map of the sub-district of one of Surabaya City, it
is converted into a km file so that it can be easily processed
and can be used by Google MyMaps. To open a map file we
need ArcMap software that is in ArcGIS. In figure 3 is a
picture of a basic map of Surabaya City. The map is what will
be used as a base map in mapping.
Figure 4. Fuzzy Membership of DHF Victim
The figure 5 illustrates the diagram of membership function of
fuzzy variable of population density. Where value a is 5000,
value b is 10000, and value c is 20000.

Figure 3. Basic Map of Surabaya

Figure 5. Fuzzy Membership of Population Density
D. Fuzzy Proccess
In this section we will explain how to determine the
vulnerability process in each area using the Fuzzy method. Of
The figure 6 illustrates the diagram of membership function of
fuzzy variable of public facility. Where value a is 150, value b
is 225, and value c is 300.
Figure 6. Fuzzy Membership of Public Facility
The figure 7 illustrates the diagram of membership function of
fuzzy variable of rainfall. Where value a is 145.5, value b is
160.5, and value c is 180.5.
Figure 7. Fuzzy Membership of Rainfall
b) Rule Implication
In the Rule implication process is the determination of
each predicate value of each rule which will later be used in
the defuzzyfication process. Each fuzzy process run will form
several rules in accordance with the number of membership
functions if each fuzzy variable has two membership functions
all, then the number of fuzzy rules is two to four. The value of
the rank depends on the number of fuzzy variables that have
two values in the membership search. Each rule value has a
weight value which is usually called z value which is z1, z2,
z3 ..... etc. according to the number of rules. The following are
the rules that we use if DHF Victims is 13, Population Density
is 19927, Public Facilities are 194, and Rainfall is 146.17.
• IF the number of victims LITTLE AND the number
of public facility LITTLE AND population density
MEDIUM AND the number of rainfall LITTLE THEN
SAFE.
Weight = 1
Predicate = (1: 0.041333333: 0.0073: 0.9555541992) =
0.0073
c) Defuzzification
Defuzzyfication is the process of determining the amount of
fuzzy value that is by searching for z values using a formula
that can be seen in formula 3.
(3)
d) Fuzzy Output
The process of fuzzy output is to determine the number
from the fuzzy output itself. In this case, fuzzy output is being
determined with certain ranges that can be seen in table 3. In
the table below will be described various fuzzy sets in each
fuzzy variable.
TABL 3. FUZZY OUTPUT RANGE
No Range Output
1 0 - 1.5 Safe
2 1.5 – 2.5 Alert
3 2.5 – 3.5 Vulnerable
Need Handling
4 >3.5
E. Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing
This section will explain how to determine the forecast of
each area using Exponential Smoothing method. The four
variables are public facilities, population density, rainfall and
data on the number of dengue fever patients will be sought for
forecasting. For forecasting, we use a combination of single
exponential smoothing and MAE. For calculations can be seen
in formulas 1 and 2.
V. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
In this section we will conduct a testing process to
determine the spread of dengue disease from 2012 to 2017 by
making a visualization in the form of maps and using fuzzy
methods to determine the level of vulnerability. And
forecasting the spread of dengue fever cases in 2018 using the
exponential smoothing method. For safe areas that are color
green, for alert areas is yellow, for the vulnerable area has a red
color, and for areas that need handling have a deep purple
color. Figure 8 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2012.
Where there are several sub-districts that have the highest
classification (need handling), namely Krembangan, Bubutan,
Sawahan, Tegalsari, Wonokromo, Gubeng, Tambaksari, and
Kenjeran sub-districts.
Figure 8. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2012
figure 9 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2013. There
are several sub-districts that have the highest classification
(need handling), namely Sawahan and Tambaksari sub- figure 13 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2017. Where
districts. there are several sub-districts that have the highest
classification (need handling), namely Sawahan, Wonokromo,
and Gubeng sub-districts.

Figure 9. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2013

figure 10 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2014. Where
there is one sub-district that has the highest classification (need
handling), namely Sawahan sub-district.
Figure 13. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2017
figure 14 is the mapping result of forecasting results in 2018.
Where there are several sub-districts that have the highest
classification (need handling), namely Sawahan, Wonokromo,
and Tambaksari sub-districts.

Figure 10. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2014

Figure 11 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2015.

Where there are several districts that have the highest
Figure 14. Mapping of Forecasting Results in 2018
classification (need handling), namely Sawahan, Tegalsari,
Wonokromo, Gubeng, Tambaksari, and Simokerto sub- To test the accuracy of the results of forecasting using the
districts. exponential smoothing method. So we will compare the results
obtained from the forecasting using the results of the data
obtained from the Surabaya health service for 2018, which was
carried out by the previous fuzzy process. Table 4 is the result
of comparisons of forcasting data and original data.

TABEL 4. RANGE OUTPUT FUZZY

Sub-District Fuzzy Result Forecasting

Tegalsari safe alert
Genteng safe safe
Figure 11. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2015 Bubutan alert vulnerable
Figure 12 is the result of a fuzzy result mapping in 2016. Simokerto alert alert
Where there is one sub-district that has the highest
classification (need handling), namely Sawahan sub-district. Pabean Cantian safe vulnerable
Semampir safe vulnerable
Krembangan safe safe
Kenjeran alert vulnerable
Bulak safe safe
Tambaksari vulnerable need handling
Gubeng safe alert
Rungkut alert safe
Figure 12. Mapping of Fuzzy Results in 2016 Tenggilis
safe alert
Mejoyo
 [3] Z. A. Latif, & M. H. Mohamad, "Mapping of dengue outbreak
Gunung Anyar safe safe distribution using spatial statistics and geographical information
Sukolilo safe safe system," International Conference on Information Science and Security
(ICISS), 2015.
Mulyorejo safe safe [4] A. Chusyairi, and R. Pelsri NS., "The use of exponential smoothing
method to predict missing service e-report," International conferences on
Sawahan vulnerable need handling Information Technology, Information Systems and Electrical
Wonokromo alert need handling Engineering (ICITISEE), pp. 39-44, November, 2017.
[5] S. Abdullah, N. Sapii, S. Dir, & T. M. T. Jalal,”Application of
Karang Pilang safe safe univariate forecasting models of tuberculosis cases in kelantan,”
International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business, and
Dukuh Pakis safe safe Engineering (ICSSBE), pp. 1-7, September, 2012.
Wiyung safe safe [6] D. Saint-Joan, and J. Desachy. "A fuzzy expert system for geographical
problems: an agricultural application." International Joint Conference of
Wonocolo safe alert the Fourth IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and The
Second International Fuzzy Engineering Symposium., March, 1995.
Gayungan safe safe
[7] P. Manjunatha, A. K. Verma and A. Srividya, “Multi-Sensor Data
Jambangan safe safe Fusion in Cluster based Wireless Sensor Networks Using Fuzzy Logic
Method”, IEEE. 1-6, 2008.
Tandes safe alert
[8] E. S. Gardner Jr, “Exponential smoothing: The state of the art,” Journal
Suko of forecasting, 4(1), 1-28, 1985.
safe alert
Manunggal
Asemrowo safe safe
Benowo safe safe
Pakal safe safe
Lakarsantri safe safe
Sambikerep safe safe

From the trial between 2018 forecast results and 2018 fuzzy
results, there are 17 districts that have the same forecast and
fuzzy results. The accuracy obtained is 55%. Based on the
calculation of accuracy level above, the forecasting method
using exponential smoothing is still less precise. So for further
research, different forecasting methods can be used instead.

VI. CONCLUSION
Although the prevention of dengue cases has been done by
the government, but sometimes the handling is still not
accurate. Because there is no map visualization for DHF spread
sata that is owned by Surabaya City Health Office. This study
aims to provide information about dissemination analysis in the
form of map visualization and forecasting that can help the
government in providing appropriate handling in dengue cases,
by using fuzzy methods applied in Geographic Information
System and Exponential Smoothing methods for forecasting.
The results of fuzzy process is to determine vulnerability level
in each districts, divided into categories such as safe area, alert
area, vulnerable area, and need handling area. While the
forecasting results using exponential smoothing method
provide an accuracy of 55%. Therefore, for further research,
better methods for forecasting are needed.

REFERENCES

[1] B. R. Guerdan, “Dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever,” American

Journal of Clinical Medicine, 7(2), 51-52, 2010.
[2] Sumarmo, “Dengue haemorrhagic fever in Indonesia,” The Southeast
Asian journal of tropical medicine and public health, 18, 269-74,
October, 1987.