5 days course on

Process Safety
Management
Department of Chemical Engineering
University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore
22,23,24,29,30 April 2011
5 days course on

Consequence Analysis
Department of Chemical Engineering
University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore
22,23,24,29,30 April 2011
Consequence Analysis Basics
Consequence

These consequence impacts to:

-- People
-- Property
-- Environment
-- Business
Consequence Analysis
To do this, you need to ask questions like:

-- What is the effect?

-- Is it a short term or long term effect?
-- Does it affect the equipment or people?
-- How much damage can it cause?
-- How many people can be hurt?
-- Is the effect immediate or is there a time delay
allowing escape
Consequence Estimation Methods

Three ways to estimate are:

-- Qualitative

-- Semi Qualitative

-- Quantitative
Qualitative Scale for Consequence Estimation

• Low
• Medium
• High
Qualitative Scale
EXAMPLE :
Major roof repairs need to be done on the corrugated steel roof of a packing and storage
building. The management want the work carried out while the work in the packing area
continues

HAZARDS Consequences
1. Falling of through roof High

2. Roof section falls High

3. Tools and Equipment Fall Medium

4. Wet Weather Medium

Qualitative Scale for Consequence Estimation
Another commonly used scale:
• Minor
• Critical
• Severe
• Catastrophic

Plant
Environmental
Personal
Damage
Damage
in
damage
Term
&damage
Loss
of production
Price Tag

Minor Critical
Critical Severe Catastrophic
Less than
Short
Temporary
Reportable
term but
loss Up
Significant
Disabling
Short
to term injury Up to repair
Major
Ecological
Critical injuries Moreor
Substantial
Ecological
One than
more
of
excursion
non
$10production
disabling
000 in release
or
$repairable
severe
100 and
000 costs
damage
and possibly
andup to1
$ 1 Million 1 damage,
damage
fatalities
$ 1 Millionmore
emission
injuries effluent
injury,
Damage 1clean
in
to10 seriousrisk
years,
fatality lossofof potential
than 1 yr loss
and
levels up
chance
machines,
required
of production
penalties of overall to
pressure plant
fatality stop business
Semi- Qualitative Scale for Consequence Estimation
Semi- Qualitative Scale for Consequence Estimation
For Example: Plant Specific Consequence Scale
Effects Class Financial loss (€) Class related consequences: examples

* < 10 : Product quality lowering (brief)

Function
1 101 – 102 : Product quality lowering
impairment
2 102 – 103 : Product quality lowering (long term)
: Production disturbance (brief)
3 103 – 104 Soil contamination
Safe dispersion of material release from vent line
: Production disturbance
Functional
4 104 – 105 Material release from the piping
Loss
Pump damage (pressure impacts)
: Production disturbance (long term)
5 105 – 106 Jet fire as result of release of material from vent line
Pool fire (from pump leakage)
6 106 – 107 Fireballs due to catastrophic rupture of vapour product line
Safety and
Environmen 7 107 – 108 Vapour cloud explosion (ignoring domino effect)
tal pollution
8 >108 Vapour cloud explosion along with domino effect
Semi- Qualitative Scale for Consequence Estimation
For Example: Plant Specific Consequence Scale
Effects Class Community Class related consequences: examples

* No effect on people : Product quality lowering (brief)

Function 1 Nuisance effect : Product quality lowering
impairment
Minor irritation effect to people : Product quality lowering (long
2
& local news term)
Moderate irritation effect to : Production disturbance (brief)
3 people and non compliance to Soil contamination
laws, local news Safe dispersion of material release from vent line
Moderate irritation effects to : Production disturbance
Functional
4 people & environment, single Material release from the piping
Loss
injuries and regional news Pump damage (pressure impacts)
Significant effects to people and : Production disturbance (long term)
5 environment, > 1 injuries & Jet fire as result of release of material from vent line
regional news Pool fire (from pump leakage)
Major effects to people and
Fireballs due to catastrophic rupture of pipe or condenser
6 environement, multiple injuries,
(vapour product line)
fatality likely, regional news
Safety and Severe effects to people and
Environmenta 7 environment, fatality, regional Vapour cloud explosion (ignoring domino effect)
l pollution news
Multiple fatalities and process
8 shutdown certain, international Vapour cloud explosion along with domino effect
news
Quantitative Consequence Estimation

Effects Physical effects e.g.

calculation / heat radiation levels
estimation from fire

Receptor

Damage Damage to receptor

calculation / e.g. fatality or level of
estimation burn
Quantitative Consequence Estimation
Quantitative Consequence Estimation
Effect Calculation/Estimation

Physical concentration of material or energy at each location surrounding the facility

for example,

concentration of a toxic material in the atmosphere

 radiant heat from a fire,

overpressure from an explosion

Source models –
used to predict the rate of release of hazardous material, the degree of flashing, and the rate of
evaporation.
Dispersion models –
used to predict downwind concentration levels.
Models for explosions and fires –
used to predict the characteristics of explosions and fires.
Quantitative Consequence Estimation

Damage or Impact Calculation/Estimation

quantification of the damage (such as injury, death, level of burns, structural damage,
environmental impairment etc.) caused by these effects on the receptors.

The impact intensity models

-- used to predict the damage zones due to fires, explosion and toxic load

Dose-response models

--- used to predict human response to different levels of dose e.g. exposures to toxic chemicals,
thermal radiation dose, explosion impulse. Dose-response curves or probit functions are used for it.
Overall approach for Quantitative Consequence Estimation

-- Determination of accident scenarios

-- Establish mode of hazard realization
-- Determine mode of transmission to target
-- Calculate effects on target
-- Take allowance of mitigating effects
-- Assess Consequences
Quantitative Consequence Estimation
Explosion Types and Consequences
What is an Explosion?

•An explosion is a rapid expansion

of gases resulting in a very fast
moving pressure or shock wave.

•The expansion can be mechanical

or it can be the result of a rapid
chemical reaction.

•Explosion damage is caused by

the pressure or shock wave.
What is an Explosion?

• A mechanical explosion is due to the

sudden failure of a vessel containing high-
pressure non-reactive gas.

• A shock wave is the pressure wave moving

through a gas.

• A shock wave in open air followed by a

strong wind is called a blast wave. (i.e
combined shock wave and wind)
Difference b/W an Explosion and Fire
What is the difference between an Explosion and
Fire?

•Fires release energy slowly, while explosions release

energy very rapidly. (Typically in the order of
microseconds.)

•Fires can also result from explosions and explosions

from fires.
(Observe the release of energy from a tire)
Explosion Characteristics

• Flammability or Explosive Limits

• The Rate of Pressure Rise
• The Maximum Pressure
Explosion Characteristics
• Flammability or Explosive Limits
How an Explosion can take place?
• How an explosion takes place?
– Temperature
– Pressure
– Oxygen/ Air
– Source of Ignition
– Flammable materials
– Violation of SOP
– Ignorance
What can explosion do?
1998 Nigeria
Explosion at a leaking fuel pipeline: 625 died

Repeated in
the
meantime 2
times!!
 Enschede, 13 May 2000
 18 people killed
STATISTICS
 947 injured
 2 missing

Destruction:
• Entire factory
• 400 houses
• More than 1000
damaged
Confined & Unconfined Explosion
Confined Explosion: An explosion occurring within a
vessel or building.
(These are most common and usually result in injury to the building
inhabitants and extensive damage.)
Unconfined explosions: occur in the open.
(This type of explosion is usually the result of a flammable gas or spill.
The gas is dispersed and mixed with air until it comes in contact with
an ignition source.)

•Unconfined explosions are rarer than confined explosions .

•The explosive material is frequently diluted below the LFL by wind.
• These explosions are very destructive.
Deflagration and Detonation

Deflagration
An explosion with a resulting shock wave moving at a
speed less than the speed of sound in the un-
reacted medium.
(e.g. 1/300 second in internal combustion engine. )

Detonation
An explosion with a resulting shock wave moving at
a speed greater than the speed of sound in the
un-reacted medium.
(e.g. 1/10000 second. The pressure rise is ten times or sufficieently
higher than that of deflagration.
Deflagration Vs Detonation
Deflagration Vs Detonation
Deflagration Vs Detonation
Confined Explosion
UnConfined Explosion
Types of Industrial Explosion

Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE)

Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE)

Dust Explosion

e Dr. Shahid Naveed 23. April 2018 / Dr. –Ing Naveed Ramzan 36
Vapor Cloud Explosion
VCEs are unconfined explosions. They occur by a
sequence of steps:

1. Sudden release of a large quantity of flammable

vapor. Typically this occurs when a vessel,
containing a superheated and pressurized liquid,
ruptures.

2. Dispersion of the vapor throughout the plant site

while mixing with air.

3. Ignition of the resulting vapor cloud.

Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion
Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion

• A BLEVE occurs if a vessel ruptures which

contains a liquid at a temperature above its
normal boiling point.

• If the material is flammable, a Vapor Cloud

Explosion might result; if toxic, a large area
might be subject to toxic material.
Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion
A typical sequence of events is
1. A fire develops adjacent to a tank containing
a liquid.
2. The fire heats the tank wall.
3. The tank wall below liquid level is cooled by
the liquid, increasing the liquid temperature
and the pressure in the tank.
4. If the flames reach the tank wall or roof
where there is vapor and no liquid to remove
the heat, the tank metal temperature rises
until it loses it structural strength.
5. The tank ruptures, explosively vaporizing its
contents.
Explosion, Structure
Explosion Effects Model

Dr. Shahid Naveed 23. April 2018 / Dr. –Ing Naveed Ramzan 42
Explosion Effects Model
kPa Damage
Explosion Effects Model
kPa Damage
Explosion Effects Model
 Effects of Explosion
Explosion Effects Model

Figure 3.7
Toxic Release Consequences
Determination of effects
Release of
material,
effects
 Toxic effect criteria
• Standards

• Threshold limit values

Toxicity evaluation, standards
Toxicity evaluation, standards

TLV-TWA Threshold limit values (time-weighted average)

are defined for 8-hour workdays.

Concentration based on this values are overly

conservative because the contact time to consider
in incident cases is less than 1min. to 1 hour.

The toxic concentration above which it is assumed

that individuals exposed to this value will be in danger
is much higher.

EEGL Emergency exposure guideline levels

EEGL’s are defined as a concentration that is judged
acceptable and that allows exposed individuals
to perform specific tasks during emergency conditions.
Toxicity evaluation, standards

IDLH Immediately dangerous to life and health

to be used as acute toxicity measures for common gases

comparable with the concentration limit

“Störfallbeurteilungswert” VCI.

ERPG Emergency response guidelines

E RPG-l nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hr
without experiencing effects
E RPG-2 nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hr
without serious health effects
E RPG-3 nearly all individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hr
without life-threatening health effects
Toxicity evaluation, standards

1
Threshold limit values
TLV-TWA Threshold limit values (time-weighted average)
are defined for 8-hour workdays.
Threshold limit values

Emergency response guideline levels ERPG (ppm)

Threshold limit values

Emergency response planning guidelines ERPG (ppm)

Control Measures
 Fire

• Heat radiation

• Fire scenarios

• Consequences of heat radiation

• Protective measures
Estimated frequency of fires (Lees 1996 p.16/160)
Fire in process plants
Heat radiation, fundamentals

Energy (heat) radiated by unit surface from a black body =>

“Stephan- Boltzmann law”
( Lees 16/166)
 Fire scenarios
• vapor cloud fire / flash fire
• fireball
• pool fire => engulfing fire
• jet flame => engulfing fire
(engulfing fire => API standard)
Fire scenarios
Pool fire
Vapor cloud fires (Lees 1996 p. 16/180)

If overpressure occurs then

vapor cloud fire (VCF) => vapor cloud explosion (VCE)

Release of flammable vapor

. prompt ignition => cloud modest in size (high probability)
. delayed ignition => major vapor cloud (low probability)
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
Consequences of heat radiation
 Protective measures

• Change of design
• Prevention of leakages
• Installation of emergency isolation valves
• Application of fire insulation
• Installation of fire resistant valves
Prevention of leakages (Lees p.16/160)

- from pump
. double mechanical seal

- from flange
. seal with very low emission rate (new construction type)

- into lagging / insulation

. special isolation of standard material e.g. glass wool
. foam glass
Fire insulation
Thanks for attending !

Questions?