US Equity

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Research

Portfolio Strategy Service

Ed Yardeni & Debbie Johnson October 17, 1997
Helpline: (212) 469-5700
Faxline: (212) 469-5726
E-Mail: yardeni@ix.netcom.com
Web Site: http://www.yardeni.com/yardeni/

WEEKLY ECONOMIC BRIEFING

Special Focus: Is inflation dead?

#5 No sign of inflation in the pipeline

#2 CPI services inflation rate lowest since the early 1980s

#1 CPI inflation rate heading below 2%

7 7
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

6 6
Total
Ex Food
And Energy
5 Total 5
(Experimental)

4 4

3 3

Sep
2 2

1 1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
 - Briefly -

Is inflation dead?

• Almost. The CPI inflation rate is at 2.2%, the lowest reading this expansion and
it is still falling. Prices are rising at only a 1.7% annual rate through the first nine
months of this year, supporting our forecast that the CPI inflation rate will fall
below 2%. The CPI core rate is also 2.2%, the lowest reading in 30 years! This
rate is also heading lower.

• The CPI goods inflation rate remains on a disinflationary trend, falling towards
1%. The CPI services inflation rate is at a 14-year low of 2.8% after hovering
just above 3% for two years. The services inflation rate should continue to fall.
Price gains over the past two months slowed to a 2% annualized pace.

• Consumer goods inflation rates are down sharply since last year. The PPI rate is
zero, while the CPI rate is only 1.3%. Core consumer PPI and CPI prices remain
on sharp disinflationary trends. Both rates are below 1% and could soon turn
negative. Spike in tobacco and new car prices pushed consumer goods core PPI
up temporarily in September.

• CPI services inflation rate falling. Nonmedical services account for 90% of
services and 51% of the total CPI. This inflation rate fell to 2.8% in September.
That’s just shy of December 1994’s 2.6% record low. At 2.7%, the medical
services inflation rate matches the 25-year low hit in July of this year. It may not
decline much more but it is unlikely to move higher.

• Pipeline inflation remains subdued. PPI core crude goods prices are up only
1.7% over the past year. Commodity prices remain weak indicating core rate
could move lower. There are no inflationary pressures at the intermediate goods
PPI level either. The overall rate is slightly negative, while the core rate is
slightly positive.
___________________________________________________________

Page 2 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - Broad Inflation -
#1
7 7
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The CPI inflation
(yearly percent change) rate is at 2.2%, the
lowest reading this
6
Total
6 expansion and
Ex Food falling. Prices are
And Energy rising at only a 1.7%
5 Total 5 annual rate through
(Experimental)
the first 9 months of
this year, supporting
4 4 our forecast that the
CPI inflation rate will
fall below 2%. The
3 3
CPI core inflation
rate is also at 2.2%,
the lowest reading
Sep in 30 years. This
2 2
rate is also heading
lower.
1 1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#2
8 8
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
Services*
CPI goods inflation
(55.9%) rate remains on
disinflationary trend,
6 Goods* 6
(44.1%) falling towards 1%.
The CPI services
inflation rate is at a
4 4
14-year low of 2.8%
after hovering just
above 3% for 2
Sep
years. The services
2 2 inflation rate should
continue to fall.
Price gains over the
past 2 months
0 0 slowed to a 2%
annualized pace.

-2 -2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Numbers in parenthesis are CPI weights.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 3
 - Broad Inflation -
#3
10 10
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)

8 8
Consumer Goods
______________
CPI
6 PPI 6

4 4

2 2
Consumer goods Sep

inflation rates are

0 0
down sharply since
last year. The PPI
rate is zero, while -2 -2
the CPI rate is only
1.3%. Core
consumer PPI and -4 -4
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
CPI prices remain
on sharp
disinflationary
trends. Both rates
are below 1% and #4
could soon turn 6 6
negative. Spike in PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)
tobacco and new
car prices pushed 5 Consumer Goods 5
Ex Food & Energy
_______________
consumer goods
core PPI up CPI
4 4
temporarily in PPI
September.
3 3

2 2

1 1

Sep

0 0

-1 -1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 4 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - Broad Inflation -
#5
45 45
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
40 (yearly percent change) 40

35 35
Crude Goods & The CRB
_____________________
30 PPI Crude 30 Pipeline inflation
25
Ex Food & Energy
25
remains subdued.
CRB Raw Industrials PPI core crude
20 Spot Price Index 20
goods prices are up
15 15 only 1.7% over the
10 10
past year.
Commodity prices
5 5 remain weak
Sep
0 10/14 0 indicating core rate
could move lower.
-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

-25 -25
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#6
12 12
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

9 9
PPI Intermediate Goods
____________________ There are no
Total inflationary
6 Ex Food & Energy 6 pressures at the
intermediate goods
PPI level. The
3 3
overall rate is
slightly negative,
while the core rate
is slightly positive.
0 0
Sep

-3 -3

-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 5
 - CPI Services -
#7
6.5 6.5
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
6.0 6.0

Nonmedical
5.5 5.5
services inflation Services Less
rate heading lower, Medical Care
falling to 2.8%. 5.0
(50.6%)* 5.0
That’s just shy of
December 1994’s 4.5 4.5
2.6% record low.
4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0
Sep

2.5 2.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

#8
10.0 10.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change) F
9.5 9.5

9.0 9.0

8.5 8.5
Medical services Medical Care
inflation rate 8.0 Services 8.0
(5.8%)*
remains on steep 7.5 7.5
downtrend. At 2.7%,
7.0 7.0
it matches the
25-year low hit in 6.5 6.5

Jul. It may not 6.0 6.0

decline much more, 5.5 5.5
but unlikely to move
5.0 5.0
higher either.
4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0
www.yardeni.com Sep
2.5 2.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

F = FASB Rule No. 106 passed.

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

Page 6 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - CPI Services -
#9
7.5 7.5
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
7.0 7.0

6.5 6.5 The yearly inflation

rate for rent of
6.0 6.0
shelter remains near
the bottom of its
5.5 5.5
4-year flat trend.
Rent Of Shelter
5.0 (27.3%)* 5.0
This category
accounts for more
4.5 4.5
than 1/4 of the CPI.

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 Sep 3.0

2.5 2.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Includes tenant and owner-occupied rent. Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

#10
8.5 30
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
25
7.5
Transportation
Services The CPI
(7.0%)* Airline Fares 20
6.5
transportation
services inflation
15 rate is very sensitive
5.5 to swings in airline
10
fares. Despite 2.1%
increase in airfares
4.5 in Sep, yearly
5 increase still
slowing.
3.5
0 Transportation
services inflation
2.5 rate is down to
-5
1.7%.
Sep
1.5 -10
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Includes public transportation, other private transportation services, and auto maintenance
and repair. Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 7
 - CPI Services -
#11
6.0 6.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
5.5 5.5

After doubling from 5.0 5.0

Mar 1995 to Entertainment
Feb 1996, the 4.5 (4.4%)* 4.5
entertainment
services inflation 4.0 4.0
rate is down
sharply, falling to
3.5 3.5
2%, matching
Mar 1995’s record
3.0 3.0
low.
2.5 2.5

2.0 Sep 2.0

1.5 1.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

#12
11.0 11.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
10.5 (yearly percent change) 10.5

10.0 10.0
The rate of increase 9.5 9.5
for education costs Total Tuition
cut in half since the 9.0 (2.6%)* 9.0

start of the decade 8.5 8.5

and is near recent
8.0 8.0
record low.
7.5 7.5

7.0 7.0

6.5 6.5

6.0 6.0

5.5 5.5

5.0 Sep 5.0

4.5 4.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

Page 8 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - CPI Services -
#13
12 12
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
11 11

10 10

9 9
Personal
8 Financial 8
Services
(0.4%)*
7 7

6 6

Sep
5 5

4 4

3 3
The inflation rates
for personal
2 2
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 services and legal
* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.
fees are high at 5%.
However, these
prices tend to be
very volatile, and
#14 have a very small
11 11
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX weight in the overall
(yearly percent change) CPI.
10 10

9 9

8 Legal 8
Services
Fees
7 (0.5%)* 7

6 6

5 Sep 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 9
 - Consumer Goods -
#15
8 8
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)
7 7

6 Foods
_____ 6
PPI food prices are CPI
falling. The CPI food 5 PPI 5
inflation rate has
been cut in half 4 4
since the end of last
3 3
year, and is
following the PPI 2 Sep 2
rate down.
1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2

-3 -3
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#16
6 6
PPI VS CPI*
(yearly percent change)

4 Household Appliances
__________________ 4
There’s deflation in CPI
both PPI and CPI PPI
household 2 2
appliance prices.

0 0

-2 -2

Sep
-4 -4

-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* CPI Appliances Index includes information processing equipment (not PCs). PPI Appliances
Index doesn’t include this equipment. PPI reflects prices of only domestically produced goods.
CPI includes import prices.

Page 10 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - Consumer Goods -
#17
9 9
PPI VS CPI
8 (yearly percent change) 8

7 7
New Cars
________
6 CPI (4.0%)* 6
PPI
5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1 Seasonal noise
boosted PPI new
0 0
car prices in Sep,
Sep
-1 -1 however still falling
2.2% over the past
-2 -2
12 months. CPI new
-3 -3 car prices are falling
for the first time
-4 -4
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 since the
* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.
mid-1970s. Strong
dollar is increasing
competition from
imports. Falling
#18 used car prices are
18 18
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX depressing new car
16
(yearly percent change) 16 prices. Used car
prices are down
14 14 5.6% over the past
12 12
year and should
continue to fall as
10 10 1994 leases come
due.
8 8

6 Used Cars 6
(1.3%)*
4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4

Sep
-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Number in parenthesis is CPI weight.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 11
 - Consumer Goods -
#19
12 12
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)
10 10
Women’s Apparel
______________
PPI and CPI apparel 8 CPI 8
prices remain tame. PPI
PPI prices flat with a 6 6
year ago. CPI
inflation rate only 4 4
1.9%.
2 Sep 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4

-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#20
12 12
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)
11 11

10 Drugs
_____ 10
Drug prices CPI
increasing at slightly 9 PPI 9
above a 2% pace.
Likely to remain low 8 8
as many patents
7 7
expire by 2002.
6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

Sep
2 2

1 1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 12 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - Consumer Goods -
#21
75 75
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)

Gasoline
_______
50 50
CPI Gasoline prices
PPI
slightly above a year
ago. Should fall
back into negative
25 25
territory.

Sep
0 0

-25 -25

-50 -50
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#22
6 6
PPI VS CPI
(yearly percent change)

5 5
Toys
____
CPI PPI toy prices below
4 PPI 4
a year ago. CPI toy
prices up less than
1% over the past
3 3 year.

2 2

1 Sep 1

0 0

-1 -1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 13
 - High-Tech Capital Equipment -
#23
0 0
PPI VS CPI
-2 (yearly percent change) -2
Computers
_________
-4 -4
CPI (.07)*
Deflation is the -6 PPI (.38) -6
norm in this
industry. PPI -8 -8

computer prices are -10 -10

down 24% over the
-12 -12
past year. CPI Sep
prices are down -14 -14
12%.
-16 -16

-18 -18

-20 -20

-22 -22

-24 Sep -24

-26 -26
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Numbers in parenthesis are weights in overall index.

#24
3.5 3.5
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
3.0 3.0

PPI inflation rate for

2.5 2.5
communication Communication & Related Equipment
equipment in volatile
flat trend around 2.0 2.0
1%.
1.5 1.5

1.0 Sep 1.0

.5 .5

.0 .0

-.5 -.5
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 14 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - High-Tech Capital Equipment -
#25
8 8
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

6 6
High-tech medical
X-Ray & Electromedical Equipment
equipment prices
4 4 falling since 1993.

2 2

0 0

-2 Sep -2

-4 -4
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#26
5 5
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

4 4

Office & Store This inflation rate is

Machines & Equipment* under 1%.
3 3

2 2

1 1
Sep

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

* Includes calculators, accounting machines, typewriters, word processors, safes & vaults,
coin-operated automatic merchandising and amusement machines, and other miscellaneous
office and store machines.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 15
 - Low-Tech Capital Equipment -
#27
15 15
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

Trucks
______
Prices for both Light (10,000 lbs & under)
10 10
heavy and light Heavy (over 10,000 lbs)
trucks still falling,
but at a slower
pace.
5 5

0 0
Sep

-5 -5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#28
7 7
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
6 6
Machinery & Equipment
___________________
The inflation rate for Agricultural
5 5
agricultural Construction
machinery just
below 1%; rate for 4 4
construction
machinery just 3 3
above 1%.
2 2

1 1
Sep

0 0

-1 -1
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 16 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - Low-Tech Capital Equipment -
#29
12 12
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

10 10
Machine Tools
____________
Machine tool prices
Metal Cutting
are rising between
8 Metal Forming 8 2% and 3%.

6 6

4 4

Sep
2 2

0 0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#30
9 9
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

6 6 Prices for railroad

equipment are down
sharply. Inflation
rate for civilian
3 3
aircraft heading
towards zero.
Sep

0 0

Transportation
Equipment
____________

-3 Civilian Aircraft -3
Railroad Equipment

-6 -6
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 17
 - PPI Intermediate Goods -
#31
12 12
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

Electricity prices for

Electric Power
____________
both industrial and
commercial users 6 Commercial 6
are flat with a year Industrial
ago.

0 Sep 0

-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#32
12 12
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
10 10

Prices for steel mill 8 8

products are less Steel Mill Products
than 1% above a 6 6
year ago, and
showing no signs of 4 4
accelerating.
2 2

Sep
0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4

-6 -6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 18 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - PPI Intermediate Goods -
#33
45 45
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
40 (yearly percent change) 40

35 35

30 Paper & Products

______________ 30 Paperboard prices
25 Paperboard 25
above a year ago,
Paper Boxes & Containers
after falling for most
20 20
of 1996 and 1997.
15 15

10 10

5 5
Sep
0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

-25 -25
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#34
25 25
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

20 20

No pricing power for

15 Industrial Chemicals 15
chemical
manufacturers.

10 10

5 5

0 Sep 0

-5 -5

-10 -10
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 19
 - PPI Intermediate Goods -
#35
40 40
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)

30 30
Prices for softwood Lumber
______
lumber falling, while Softwood
prices for hardwood 20 Hardwood 20
lumber rising.

10 10

0 0
Sep

-10 -10

-20 -20
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#36
7.0 7.0
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
6.5 (yearly percent change) 6.5
6.0 6.0
5.5 5.5
This inflation rate is 5.0 5.0
only 1.5%. 4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
Hardware
3.0 3.0
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 Sep 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
.0 .0
-.5 -.5
-1.0 -1.0
-1.5 -1.5
-2.0 -2.0
-2.5 -2.5
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 20 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - PPI Intermediate Goods -
#37
10 10
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
9 (yearly percent change) 9

8 Homebuilding Materials
___________________ 8

7 Cement 7
Price gains for
6 Concrete Ingredients & 6 cement and
Related Products
5 5 concrete remain on
disinflationary
4 4
trends.
3 Sep 3

2 2

1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2

-3 -3

-4 -4

-5 -5
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#38
35 35
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
30 30

25 25 The inflation rate for

Homebuilding Materials
___________________
Asphalt Felts &
gypsum products
20 20
Coatings back in single-digits,
Gypsum Products and heading lower.
15 15
Asphalt prices are
10 10
flat with a year ago.

5 5

0 Sep 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 21
 - PPI Crude Goods -
#39
70 70
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
60 60

50 50
Iron & Steel Scrap
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 Sep 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Iron and steel prices
are slightly below a
year ago, while
copper prices are
slightly above. #40
85 85
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
75
(yearly percent change) 75

65 65

55 55

45 Copper Scrap 45

35 35

25 25

15 15

5 5
Sep
-5 -5

-15 -15

-25 -25

-35 -35
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Page 22 / October 17, 1997 / Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing
 - PPI Crude Goods -
#41
95 95
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
85 (yearly percent change) 85

75 75

65 65 Volatility in natural
gas prices
55 55 continues.
45 45
Natural Gas
35 35

25 Sep 25

15 15

5 5

-5 -5

-15 -15

-25 -25

-35 -35
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

#42
120 120
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
100 100

80 80 Crude oil prices

21% below last
60 60 year.
Crude Petroleum

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 Sep -20

-40 -40

-60 -60
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Weekly Economic Briefing / October 17, 1997 / Page 23
Copyright (C) Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc. 1997. All rights reserved. The
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