1.

DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

production and reservoir pressure versus time

date cumulative wet gas, bcf pressure, psia
0 1/11/1977 0 0
1 12/30/1977 0.086 9494.36
2 12/30/1978 0.482 8158.49
3 12/30/1979 1.536 9288.32
4 12/30/1980 3.08 8362.93
5 12/30/1981 20.09 7313.89
6 12/30/1982 31.808 6211.35
7 12/30/1983 42.901 5481.11
8 12/30/1984 54.843 4776.42
9 12/30/1985 66.811 4488.93
10 12/30/1986 77.998 4236.21
11 12/30/1987 90.731 4184.2
12 12/30/1988 104.182 4008.84
13 12/30/1989 118.864 3547.17
14 12/30/1990 134.167 3023.21
15 12/30/1991 146.761 2780.58
16 12/30/1992 160.776 2513.8
17 12/30/1993 169.925 2247.87
18 12/30/1994 179.023 2085.82
19 12/30/1995 187.719 1985.72
20 12/30/1996 194.467 2005.68
21 12/30/1997 206.79 1926.46
22 12/30/1998 215.2 1446.01
23 12/30/1999 222.137 1265.65

Nominal Decline Rate (D) Effective Decline Rate (d)

JAWAB
0.287298944056605 0.437068815377452

Waktu (Bulan) P (psia)

0 0 7150
1 6 6600
2 12 5800
3 18 4950
4 21 4500
 5 24 4350
6 30 4060
7 36 3840
8 42 3660
9 48 3480
10 54 3260
11 60 3100
12 66 2940
13 72 2800
NALYSIS

ure versus time

average rate, MMcfd
0
0.117808
1.084932
2.887671
4.230137
46.60274 Chart Title
32.10411
100
30.39178
32.71781
32.78904
30.64932
34.88493
36.85205
40.22466 10
41.92603
34.50411
38.39726
25.06575
24.92603
23.82466 1
18.48767 0 5 10 15 20

33.76164
23.0411
19.00548

Produksi Kumulatif (MMscf) Rate (MMscfd)

117.496568290029 0.005

QMinyak (stb/d) QGas (MMscf/d) Np (MMstb) Gp (MMMscf)

0 0 0 0
44230 64.11 8.072 11.7
79326 115.616 22.549 32.8
75726 110.192 36.369 52.91
73418 106.235 43.473 62.905
 70208 134.685 49.182 77.49
50416 147.414 58.383 104.393
35227 135.282 64.812 129.082
26027 115.277 69.562 150.12
27452 151.167 74.572 177.708
20975 141.326 78.4 203.5
15753 125.107 81.275 226.332
14268 116.97 83.879 247.679
13819 111.792 86.401 268.081

q rate
0 225000
1326900
2379780
2271780
2202540
2106240
1512480
1056810
780810
823560
629250
472590
428040
414570
Chart Title Chart Title
100

10

1
10 15 20 25 0 50 100 150 200

qi q t
33.76164 19.00548 2

D (/6month) rate stb/d Q (stb/d) ta (month) D(/month) D(/day)

0.3307759346 7500 34124126.9933 40.5693222 0.05512932 0.001838

Qi RF
10770311.9451 0.05249866
200 250

q vs. Time
90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1
12 14
12 14
 2. S
Distribusi Persegi
RN a (ft) b (ft) h A (acre) RN a
0.2852314479 20 30 22.8523144795 2500 0.162772892995 0.07
0.1220225836 21.2202258362 0.149956452132 175
0.0299973719 20.2999737187 0.169915811272
0.0681653853 20.6816538533 0.663198292624
0.2468848638 22.4688486375 0.12884999955
0.1400412564 21.4004125643 0.039699515371
0.1513879507 21.5138795073 0.987365007501
0.7021631192 27.0216311918 0.394011713776
0.5170469653 25.1704696528 0.826028941277
0.0203962653 20.2039626531 0.36701647482
0.8348907308 28.3489073076 0.069142964073
0.4868952458 24.8689524578 0.102250418515
0.2013432083 22.0134320835 0.835015992925
0.6755720109 26.7557201086 0.090490695436
0.7006161159 27.006161159 0.664809208303
0.4493775513 24.4937755132 0.314142668978
0.1799509256 21.7995092561 0.370272363821
0.660942391 26.6094239096 0.666018958781
0.6435235931 26.4352359305 0.971132249383
0.6823162398 26.8231623985 0.147080122352
0.1557723307 21.5577233067 0.101654954575
0.1277758978 21.2777589781 0.848505608495
0.7803944981 27.8039449808 0.867695873084
0.4161051546 24.1610515463 0.215419525358
0.0820493488 20.8204934885 0.923943750358
0.5537344059 25.5373440585 0.340153238052
0.5698046503 25.6980465025 0.156827078291
0.9773794715 29.7737947151 0.797826867865
0.1091344427 21.0913444265 0.01640766984
0.3545696601 23.545696601 0.555220866073
0.2970311773 22.9703117734 0.142996186503
0.05375654 20.5375653997 0.873967823489
0.3508895975 23.5088959746 0.40689741674
0.4261332572 24.2613325715 0.055822113238
0.6221155195 26.2211551953 0.26400641298
0.7954003606 27.9540036057 0.653500058503
0.9383231965 29.3832319649 0.49871752066
0.0474091572 20.4740915715 0.751689533492
0.0219145035 20.2191450352 0.851029783024
0.2392014845 22.392014845 0.727145318107
0.8244860001 28.244860001 0.848872279589
0.242250509 22.4225050903 0.513584159627
0.0298690001 20.2986900009 0.82880067091
0.2071547589 22.0715475894 0.071556243876
0.0068776532 20.068776532 0.816860430077
0.3491902272 23.4919022722 0.030843508108
0.9311753298 29.3117532982 0.49548424578
0.9169611115 29.1696111146 0.554575438524
0.431941134 24.3194113405 0.677141081931
0.0717630873 20.7176308734 0.832014992678
0.8749997046 28.7499970455 0.96182196534
0.9802116659 29.8021166594 0.85365622933
0.4751540854 24.7515408537 0.600912920806
0.3692331043 23.6923310432 0.982923781781
0.1869111668 21.8691116676 0.62012872512
0.1100365298 21.1003652976 0.360257174528
0.7302947561 27.3029475615 0.159082529768
0.5210956641 25.2109566414 0.615886605465
0.8611044755 28.6110447546 0.802975543584
0.8816096904 28.8160969038 0.618318134777
0.4167659042 24.1676590419 0.348184418509
0.9969535551 29.9695355514 0.256860609914
0.6267615944 26.2676159443 0.466075039344
0.8051149685 28.0511496845 0.460563574862
0.7996532946 27.9965329463 0.223732193244
0.7664741664 27.6647416642 0.962321319469
0.2963718079 22.9637180795 0.5074550412
0.2282055255 22.282055255 0.494568488423
0.5546569806 25.5465698062 0.722304153086
0.4287718093 24.2877180927 0.684984841067
0.0915456474 20.9154564744 0.100102331725
0.3715942465 23.7159424652 0.351581549977
0.7675751011 27.6757510108 0.317303810673
0.5196299889 25.1962998886 0.656127271541
0.5122221618 25.122221618 0.236975776438
0.696215722 26.9621572205 0.094762285105
0.9110909812 29.110909812 0.434235274628
0.8431501864 28.4315018642 0.610429670211
0.3509288029 23.509288029 0.231784702157
0.234537101 22.3453710103 0.927839101705
0.5392945862 25.3929458623 0.696045735511
0.6390775547 26.3907755468 0.720742982735
0.4432485975 24.4324859747 0.582026714287
0.7480078179 27.4800781791 0.088135684807
0.0430942123 20.4309421226 0.387296866848
0.6617063936 26.6170639362 0.188448859096
0.3290727263 23.2907272625 0.86973897149
0.8883314231 28.8833142313 0.003722337447
0.8416740701 28.4167407011 0.296811908259
0.4023158545 24.0231585455 0.590062390628
0.7483680209 27.4836802093 0.871585876086
0.3001871456 23.0018714563 0.67080028064
0.7482947807 27.4829478069 0.449658598904
0.1051859272 21.0518592719 0.607123383538
0.8676154291 28.6761542912 0.195382033703
0.0411731696 20.4117316956 0.006480705809
0.7250825199 27.250825199 0.661224718638
0.8964295106 28.9642951057 0.388464125049
0.3037774091 23.0377740913 0.221276606279
0.6607645813 26.6076458134 0.248308807784
 2. SIMULASI MONTE CARLO
Distribusi Segitiga
RF
b c W(λ<x) λ<b λ>b φ
0.15 0.2 0.615385 277.86028409792 266.719563710766 277.86028409792 0.25
375 500 0.615385 273.72775389222 264.940793391542 273.727753892217
280.09294806361 267.716827412532 280.092948063611
382.62439408833 352.04017106169 352.04017106169
266.5163918144 262.040444551448 266.516391814403
225.79831197081 250.160988832977 225.798311970812
428.33520380631 471.342112561885 471.342112561885
335.0336258274 301.532777002004 335.033625827398
406.71508622234 393.660361026693 393.660361026693
329.45410600977 297.160336381849 329.454106009764
242.03948586279 254.020920939903 242.039485862785
256.52470302588 258.434847719002 256.524703025882
407.97218619426 396.443443182638 396.443443182638
251.69351474104 256.857850637398 251.693514741039
382.87640207513 352.394439602365 352.394439602365
317.8960233302 288.858515406337 317.896023330196
330.13769254562 297.682684004506 330.13769254562
383.06545201151 352.66104493636 352.66104493636
426.24409686576 456.682523271701 456.682523271701
272.77631590983 264.543439150444 272.776315909832
256.28697341749 258.354747713461 256.286973417485
409.84647017186 400.767266248398 400.767266248398
412.48732966293 407.26506456804 407.26506456804
293.33118417518 274.173228221938 293.331184175175
420.06395853587 429.688861289774 429.688861289774
323.6941843966 292.900894433053 323.694184396602
275.96415249436 265.892674375415 275.96415249436
402.72515542035 385.364693096854 385.364693096854
207.65728922609 247.149250623212 207.657289226091
364.97198818446 329.968697866413 364.971988184461
271.40929479414 263.980407852872 271.40929479414
413.34409689943 409.489826686756 409.489826686756
337.62943180147 303.654213409276 337.629431801473
235.2365118551 252.267154701824 235.236511855102
305.99777419364 281.277383070906 305.997774193644
381.10071276603 349.925031409846 349.925031409846
355.04621307574 319.491382042055 355.046213075734
396.04257435388 372.955990605575 372.955990605575
410.19552694848 401.597438532186 401.597438532186
392.40387686743 366.825098749754 366.825098749754
409.89720767458 400.887428513394 400.887428513394
357.71007190561 322.188218544867 357.710071905607
407.10351916582 394.510870745647 394.510870745647
243.1993830761 254.339982601892 243.199383076104
405.42553668156 390.894216262313 390.894216262313
219.77530599565 249.01160988405 219.775305995648
354.46162814297 318.910176916884 354.46162814297
364.86153771639 329.845374744124 364.861537716391
384.79554410312 355.135133056782 355.135133056782
407.55316494104 395.505859131202 395.505859131202
425.03685277793 450.184618310132 450.184618310132
410.55817732882 402.468748118756 402.468748118756
372.6343589875 338.938955213864 372.634358987495
427.76480335639 466.684025089977 466.684025089977
375.76943774592 342.864285195293 342.864285195293
328.02521473373 296.080202884328 328.025214733727
276.68758250107 266.205997585293 276.687582501071
375.08155675938 341.989333762732 341.989333762732
403.45877162624 386.83379626837 386.83379626837
375.47613015145 342.490250335105 342.490250335105
325.43931402088 294.165083630288 325.439314020883
304.21276889065 280.218152806899 304.21276889065
349.05423740141 313.706891049045 349.054237401413
348.02205745513 312.747850121833 348.022057455125
295.59267208612 275.372736652183 295.592672086121
425.1017508245 450.511473708331 450.511473708331
356.61656774103 321.071460292192 356.616567741028
354.29571034325 318.745901418732 354.295710343254
391.67895594765 365.648855421931 365.648855421931
386.00714364528 356.905676804915 356.905676804915
255.66381817229 258.146018354323 255.66381817229
326.17142834711 294.702169394084 326.171428347108
318.61318774319 289.345656806607 318.613187743188
381.51458217325 350.495059112383 350.495059112383
299.11053729823 277.297116023291 299.110537298234
253.48279131006 257.429491759238 253.482791310061
343.00384772625 308.232674448499 343.003847726249
374.19319406972 340.870896953748 374.193194069715
297.74365824833 276.540844090428 297.743658248326
420.58001060916 431.513078699603 431.513078699603
387.70395578884 359.440307371631 359.440307371631
391.4446670117 365.27173228236 365.27173228236
369.50382111588 335.172018239252 369.503821115881
250.68896559255 256.543267730115 250.688965592546
333.66409910609 300.43621657512 333.664099106091
285.67599487347 270.324524254836 285.675994873471
412.76676207336 407.983877210835 407.983877210835
190.55480421052 245.523973494609 190.554804210521
313.89843064938 286.207516588775 313.898430649382
370.84191428496 336.764144229273 370.841914284962
413.01907895291 408.638530799862 408.638530799862
383.8109629344 353.719509987122 353.719509987122
345.96142526537 310.864622370025 345.96142526537
373.65301389609 340.197058631576 373.65301389609
287.69353216006 271.307700590312 287.693532160056
195.52427532362 245.876498287859 195.524275323618
382.3152351167 351.607300420445 351.607300420445
333.90301484931 300.62640126687 333.903014849313
294.92905989858 275.017732716904 294.929059898581
302.04358506406 278.957181763189 302.043585064057
Bo bbl/STB Sw OOIP
OOIP MEAN SD
1.3 0.15 20130846316.9 12652778403.0742 26435205724.608 5790188228.913
18415105079.48 13885349330.4227
18026151482.92 15319627406.4636
23082500544.46 16368257360.519
18984978499.52 16952821292.2402
15319627406.46 17017690487.2456
32148472443.59 17449070352.5563
28701548319.34 17515994165.1543
31413647891.61 18026151482.9229
21102642792.02 18093590129.1686
21753438367.06 18415105079.4826
20225163988.19 18984978499.5161
27667783170.63 19765006999.8336
21349811041.58 20130846316.9043
30171525433.3 20225163988.1855
24685742495.3 21102642792.0201
22816403813.07 21349811041.5819
29750778067.37 21540880317.6942
38273920350.32 21612412121.1426
23196475600.6 21667483957.0745
17515994165.15 21753438367.0637
27034820681.17 21840297420.2296
35899544988.3 21943331723.6721
22468776971.3 22191535985.4446
28362890004.72 22468776971.2982
26206920453.12 22483201250.6736
22483201250.67 22816403813.068
36375709927.5 23082500544.4588
13885349330.42 23196475600.5967
27244349504.11 23771618778.6519
19765006999.83 23822927081.9961
26662289647.58 23949947723.9401
25163896958.04 24106783209.3496
18093590129.17 24208484064.9031
25437560206.21 24524020447.0434
31011615673.33 24685742495.2976
33074235507.11 24870556762.3928
24208484064.9 24935034135.6553
25742995909.58 24938154650.2983
26040995500.91 25028020786.0064
35897750091.8 25163896958.0432
25428495521.71 25388225777.2579
25388225777.26 25428495521.7133
17017690487.25 25437560206.209
24870556762.39 25478944527.3114
16368257360.52 25742995909.5773
32939453597.27 25794526067.7738
33741476990.62 25962654162.3199
27381173875.91 25977561318.2823
25977561318.28 26040995500.909
41033052187.14 26155099273.7352
38026349832.64 26206920453.1197
29240884341.71 26236341892.8847
35053879804.87 26662289647.5768
23771618778.65 27034820681.1656
21943331723.67 27244349504.1112
23949947723.94 27334255694.6881
27334255694.69 27381173875.9116
35088394125.81 27481822808.9196
31288787584.24 27667783170.6343
24935034135.66 27955581379.9751
28904324054.1 27997808253.0561
29068253467.69 28243875455.7806
30950153111.63 28279307796.5954
26236341892.88 28362890004.7157
39512803186.24 28621471493.173
25962654162.32 28701548319.3391
25028020786.01 28904324054.101
29614348241.07 28936448672.6968
27481822808.92 29068253467.6879
16952821292.24 29240884341.7063
24524020447.04 29614348241.074
27955581379.98 29750778067.3717
27997808253.06 30125302510.4708
23822927082 30143685967.2806
21667483957.07 30171525433.2954
31656298810.39 30376861964.5956
33728812538.91 30561423796.7349
22191535985.44 30569398902.2143
30569398902.21 30661166257.0776
28936448672.7 30950153111.6318
30561423796.74 31011615673.3326
28621471493.17 31288787584.2447
21840297420.23 31413647891.6143
21612412121.14 31656298810.3947
24106783209.35 32148472443.5939
30125302510.47 32939453597.265
17449070352.56 33074235507.1129
28279307796.6 33728812538.9139
28243875455.78 33741476990.6248
35605703151.1 35053879804.8661
25794526067.77 35088394125.8104
30143685967.28 35605703151.1041
 24938154650.3 35897750091.8019
26155099273.74 35899544988.2995
12652778403.07 36375709927.4951
30376861964.6 38026349832.642
30661166257.08 38273920350.3165
21540880317.69 39512803186.242
25478944527.31 41033052187.1377
PROBABILITY
0.0086491028
0.015100852
0.0274462217
0.0410506413
0.050745873
1.2
0.0519258135
0.0603360039
0.0617313227
0.0732099707
0.0748422592
0.0830080174
0.0990996765
0.1246640183
1
0.138120952
0.1417452426
0.1785342497
0.1898964478
0.1989774986
0.2024434623
0.2051363161
0.2093815187 0.8
0.2137234732
0.2189413966
0.2318075633
0.2466637969
0.2474504496
0.2659892544
0.2812837377
0.2879621261 0.6
0.3227518897
0.3259385296
0.3338819789
0.3437932802
0.3502787178 PROVEN
0.3706723707 PROBABLE
0.3812716332
0.3934938894 0.4
0.3977834518
0.3979913723
0.4039913802
0.4131059118
0.4282545601
0.4309858391
0.4316011078
0.4344121703 0.2
 0.2
0.4524203066
0.4559472682
0.4674774424
0.4685012327
0.4728599988 PROVEN
0.4807082721
0.4842752853
0.4863010332 0
10000000000 15000000000 20000000000 25
0.5156420061
0.5412395732
0.5555688503
0.5616962741
0.5648881455
0.571720844
0.5842871711
0.6035620448
0.6063701606
0.6226195807
0.6249423797
0.6304036297
0.6471291046
0.6522532195
0.6651032536
0.6671218645
0.6753529402
0.6860048348
0.7085167822
0.716548686
0.7380358272
0.739068611
0.7406286378
0.7519843669
0.7619602894
0.7623863452
0.7672586205
0.7822334251
0.7853450932
0.799052739
0.8050521751
0.8163955607
0.8381088611
0.8693496934
0.8742265103
0.896102057
0.8964962003
0.9316899788
0.9324719177
0.9433803275
0.9488955339
0.9489280579
0.956990704
0.9773500851
0.9795536612
0.9880452069
0.9941511526
 DISTRIBUSI KUMULATIF

PROVEN
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE

PROVEN
PROBABLE
ROVEN

20000000000 25000000000 30000000000 35000000000 40000000000

0.008649102836848 Column W
40000000000 45000000000
distribusi segitiga : λ= a+(W(λ<x1)(c-a)(b-a))^0.5 x1<b
λ= c-((1-W(λ<x1)(c-a)(b-a))^0.5 x1>b

distribusi persegi : λ= a+(W(λ<x1)(b-a))

〖 (𝜆−𝑎) 〗 ^2/((𝑐−𝑎)(𝑏−𝑎))