Lec12 Probabilites Conditional

‫‪ 8.
6‬اﻻﺣﺘﻤــﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬
‫‪ .1‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ هﺬا اﻟﻴﻮم ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن ﻳﻮم أﻣﺲ آﺎن ﻣﺸﻤﺲ‬
‫‪ .2‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻋﻤﻞ ﺟﻬﺎز ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﻳﻮم إﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮاﺻﻞ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 150‬ﻳﻮم دون أﻋﻄﺎل‬
‫‪ .3‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻻﺻﺎﺑﺔ ﺑﻤﺮض ﻣﺎ ﻣﻊ أﺧﺬ اﻟﻠﻘﺎح ﺿﺪ هﺬا اﻟﻤﺮض‬
‫‪S‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪A∩B‬‬
‫ﻓﻀﺎء‬
‫اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬
‫إﻳﺠﺎد اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﻨﺴﻮﺑﺎ إﻟﻰ ﻓﻀﺎء ﻋﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﺸﺮط‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ 8.6‬اﻻﺣﺘﻤــﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ A‬ﺑﺸﺮط وﻗﻮع اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪P(A|B) = B‬‬
‫)‪P(A∩B‬‬
‫= )‪P(A|B‬‬
‫)‪P(B‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ )‪P(A|B‬‬
‫أي أن ‪ 0 < P(A|B) < 1‬و ‪Σ P(A|B) = 1‬‬
‫‪ P(B|A) ≠ P(A|B) .2‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم‬
‫‪ .3‬إذا آﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺮص‬

‫)‪P(A∩B‬‬ ‫)‪n(A∩B‬‬
‫= )‪P(A|B‬‬ ‫=‬
‫)‪P(B‬‬ ‫)‪n(B‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .4‬اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ ﻟﻤﻜﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ Ac‬ﻣﺸﺮوط ﺑـ ‪ B‬هﻮ‬
‫)‪P(Ac |B) = 1 – P(A|B‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﻀﺮب ﻓﻲ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬

‫)‪P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B|A‬‬
‫)‪P(A∩B) = P(B) P(A|B‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺷﻌﺐ ‪ 101‬إﺣﺺ ﺟﻤﻌﺖ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻄﻼب‬
‫اﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﻴﻦ اﻟﺮاﺳﺒﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫اﺧﺘﻴﺮ ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺎ ‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ‬
‫‪ .1‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎدة‪.‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫ﻃﻼب اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪ .2‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻃﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫ﻃﻼب اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻃﻼب اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫‪ .3‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪ .4‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺟﺢ و ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ D‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎدة‬
‫وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ A‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ B‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫‪ .1‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎدة‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬ ‫اﻟﺮاﺳﺒﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﻴﻦ‬ ‫‪P(D) = n(D)/n(S) = 50/80 = 0.625‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬ ‫‪ .2‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪ P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 15/80 = 0.1875‬اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬ ‫‪ .3‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 40/80 = 0.5‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪ .4‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ و ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪P(A∩D) = n(A∩D)/n(S) = 25/80 = 0.3125‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫‪P(A|D) = P(A∩D)/P(D) = n(A∩D)/n(D) = 25/50 = 0.5‬‬
‫‪ 9.6‬اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﺎل أن اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ A‬و اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﻴﻦ إذا آﺎن وﻗﻮع أي ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻻ‬ ‫▪‬
‫ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻷﺧﺮى‬
‫اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺷﺎرﻃﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ A‬ﺑﺸﺮط وﻗﻮع اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬هﻮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ‬ ‫▪‬
‫‪.A‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ اﺳﺘﻘﻼل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺘﻴﻦ ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬إذا ﺗﺤﻘﻖ أﺣﺪ اﻟﺸﺮوط‬ ‫▪‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪P(A|B) = P(A‬‬
‫)‪P(B|A) = P(B‬‬
‫)‪P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ D‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎدة‬
‫وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ A‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ B‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬ ‫اﻟﺮاﺳﺒﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﻴﻦ‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬ ‫هﻞ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺘﻴﻦ ‪ A‬و ‪ D‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﻴﻦ‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ‬ ‫‪P(D) = 50/80 = 0.625‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬ ‫‪P(A) = 40/80 = 0.5‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬ ‫‪P(A∩D) = 25/80 = 0.3125‬‬
‫‪P(A) P(D) = (0.625)(0.5) = 0.3125‬‬
‫)‪P(A∩D) = P(A) P(B‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺘﻴﻦ ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﺎن‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫إذا آﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺘﻴﻦ ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﻴﻦ ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ Ac‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪B‬‬

‫و‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ A‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪Bc‬‬
‫و‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ Ac‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪Bc‬‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎرات ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻓﺌﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﺟﺪ أن اﺣﺘﻤﺎل هﻄﻮل اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﻳﻮﻣﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﻴﻦ = ‪ 0.16‬واﺣﺘﻤﺎل هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ أي ﻳﻮم = ‪ 0.4‬ﻓﻬﻞ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ هﻄﻮل ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻳﺎم‬
‫‪P(A) = 0.4‬‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A‬هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ أﺣﺪ اﻷﻳﺎم{‬

‫‪P(B) = 0.4‬‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = B‬هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻴﻮم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ{‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﻴﻦ = )‪0.16 = P(A∩B‬‬
‫)‪P(A) P(B) = (0.4)(0.4) = 0.16 = P(A∩B‬‬
‫ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ هﻄﻮل اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻳﺎم‬

‫ﺻﻨﺪوق ﻳﺤﺘﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 10‬آﺮات ﺣﻤﺮاء و ‪ 20‬آﺮة ﺑﻴﻀﺎء‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺤﺒﺖ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ آﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ هﺬا اﻟﺼﻨﺪوق واﺣﺪة ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻜﺮﺗﺎن آﻼهﻢ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻷوﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{ و ‪}= B‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{‬

‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء = )‪P(A∩B‬‬
‫‪P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 20/30‬‬
‫‪P(B|A) = 19/29‬‬
‫‪P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B|A) = (20/30)(19/29) = 0.4368‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻷوﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{ و ‪}= B‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء = )‪P(A∩B‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺒﺎدﻳﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P(A∩B) = n(A∩B)/n(S‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺐ آﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ‪ 30‬آﺮة = )‪n(S‬‬

‫‪= 30P2 = (30)(29) = 870‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺐ آﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬آﺮة = )‪n(A∩B‬‬

‫‪= 20P2 = (20)(19) = 380‬‬
‫‪P(A∩B) = n(A∩B)/n(S) = (380)(870) = 0.4368‬‬

‫‪ 10.6‬ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ وﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺰ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻓﺮاغ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬
‫‪A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ … ∪An = S‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ A1,A2,A3,…,An‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Ai ∩ Aj = φ ∀ i ≠ j‬‬
‫‪ .3‬اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬

‫‪A1‬‬ ‫‪A2‬‬ ‫‪A3‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫‪An‬‬
‫‪S‬‬
‫‪A1∩B‬‬ ‫‪A2∩B‬‬ ‫‪A3∩B‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫‪An∩B‬‬
‫‪B‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ S‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫)‪P(A1) , P(A2) , P(A3) , … , P(An‬‬
‫ﺑﺤﻴﺚ‬
‫‪P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + … + P(An) = 1‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫)‪P(B|A1) , P(B|A2) , P(B|A3) , … , P(B|An‬‬

‫ ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ وﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺰ‬10.6
S A1 A2 A3 ... An ‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
P(A1) P(A2) P(A3) P(An)
A1∩B A2∩B A3∩B ... An∩B
B B ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ‬

P(B) = P(B∩A1)+P(B∩A2)+P(B∩A3)+ … +P(B∩An)
‫ﻣﻦ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬
P(B∩Ai) = P(B|Ai) P(Ai)
B ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ‬
P(B) = P(B|A1) P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) + … +P(B |An)P(An)

STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet 15
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫أﺣﺪ ﺷﻌﺐ ‪ 101‬إﺣﺺ ﺗﺤﺘﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 50‬ﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ‪ 25‬ﻃﺎل ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫و ‪ 15‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ و‪ 10‬ﻃﻼب ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ ‪ .‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻠﻮم ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎدة هﻮ ‪ %70‬وﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎب اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ ‪ %50‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ ‪ . %40‬ﻣﺎ هﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻌﺒﺔ؟‬
‫⇐ ‪P(A1) = 25/50 = 0.5‬‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A1‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم{‬
‫و ‪} = A2‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ{ ⇐ ‪P(A2) = 15/50 = 0.3‬‬
‫و ‪} = A3‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ{ ⇐ ‪P(A3) = 10/50 = 0.2‬‬
‫و ‪} = B‬اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ ‪ 101‬إﺣﺺ{‬
‫ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم = ‪P(B|A1) = 0.7‬‬
‫ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ = ‪P(B|A2) = 0.5‬‬
‫ﻧﺠﺎح ﻃﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ = ‪P(B|A3) = 0.4‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫)‪P(B) = P(B|A1) P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) +P(B |A3)P(A3‬‬
‫)‪P(B) = (0.7) (0.5)+ (0.5) (0.3) + (0.4) (0.2‬‬
‫‪P(B) = 0.58‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬
‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬
‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬
‫‪0.07‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺎﺑﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺑﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A1‬اﻧﺘﺎج ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ ‪P(A1) = 0.2 ⇐ {1‬‬
‫و ‪} = A2‬اﻧﺘﺎج ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ ‪P(A2) = 0.3 ⇐ {2‬‬
‫و ‪} = A3‬اﻧﺘﺎج ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ ‪P(A3) = 0.5 ⇐ {3‬‬
‫و ‪} = B‬اﻟﻤﺼﺒﺎح ﺗﺎﻟﻒ {‬
‫ﻣﺼﺒﺎح ﺗﺎﻟﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎآﻴﻨﺔ ‪P(B|A1) = 0.01 = 1‬‬
‫)‪P(B) = (0.2) (0.01) + (0.04) (0.3) + (0.07) (0.5‬‬
‫‪P(B) = 0.049‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺰ‬
‫‪A1‬‬ ‫‪A2‬‬ ‫‪A3‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫‪An‬‬

‫‪S‬‬
‫‪A1∩B‬‬ ‫‪A2∩B‬‬ ‫‪A3∩B‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫‪An∩B‬‬
‫‪B‬‬
‫اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ⇔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ‪B‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺰ ⇔ ﺑﺸﺮط ﺣﺪوث اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﻮﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪Ai‬‬

‫ﺗﻢ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ B‬ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪Ai‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻓﺮاغ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬
‫‪A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ … ∪An = S‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ A1,A2,A3,…,An‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Ai ∩ Aj = φ ∀ i ≠ j‬‬
‫‪ .3‬اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬

‫وﻟﻠﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫)‪P(B|A1) , P(B|A2) , P(B|A3) , … , P(B|An‬‬
‫‪ .4‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪B‬‬

‫)‪P(B) = P(B|A1) P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) + … +P(B |An)P(An‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ S‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫)‪P(A1) , P(A2) , P(A3) , … , P(An‬‬
‫ﺑﺤﻴﺚ‬
‫‪P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + … + P(An) = 1‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫)‪P(B|A1) , P(B|A2) , P(B|A3) , … , P(B|An‬‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪B‬‬
‫)‪P(B) = P(B|A1) P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) + … +P(B |An)P(An‬‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع ‪ Ai‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ‪ B‬ﻗﺪ ﺣﺪﺛﺖ‬
‫)‪P(B|Ai)P(Ai‬‬
‫= )‪P(Ai|B‬‬
‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬
‫)‪P(B‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫)‪P(B) = (0.7) (0.5)+ (0.5) (0.3) + (0.4) (0.2‬‬
‫‪P(B) = 0.58‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫‪P(A1) =0.5‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A1) =0.7‬‬

‫‪A1‬‬ ‫‪B|A1‬‬ ‫‪P(A1)P(B|A1) = 0.35‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪P(A2) =0.3‬‬ ‫‪B|A2 P(B|A2) =0.5‬‬
‫‪A2‬‬ ‫‪P(A2)P(B|A2) = 0.15‬‬
‫‪+‬‬ ‫÷‬
‫‪P(A3) =0.2‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A3) =0.4‬‬
‫‪A3‬‬ ‫‪B|A3‬‬ ‫‪P(A3)P(B|A3) = 0.08‬‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ‬ ‫‪P(B) = 0.58‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ‬

‫‪ P(A1|B) = 0.35 ÷ 0.58 = 0.603‬ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ آﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺘﺎج‬
‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬
‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻒ‬
‫‪0.07‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺎﺑﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺑﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫‪P(A1) =0.2‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A1) =0.01‬‬

‫‪A1‬‬ ‫‪B|A1‬‬ ‫‪P(A1)P(B|A1) = 0.002‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪P(A2) =0.3‬‬ ‫‪B|A2 P(B|A2) =0.04 P(A2)P(B|A2) = 0.012‬‬
‫‪A2‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪P(A3) =0.5‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A3) =0.07‬‬
‫‪A3‬‬ ‫‪B|A3‬‬ ‫‪P(A3)P(B|A3) = 0.035‬‬
‫÷‬
‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﺼﺒﺎح ﺗﺎﻟﻒ‬ ‫‪P(B) = 0.049‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻤﺼﺒﺎح ﺗﺎﻟﻒ‬

‫ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﻣﺎآﻴﻨﺔ ‪3‬‬ ‫‪P(A3|B) = 0.035 ÷ 0.049 = 0.714‬‬

Lec12 Probabilites Conditional

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Lec12 Probabilites Conditional

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‫‪ 8.

‫إﻳﺠﺎد اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﻨﺴﻮﺑﺎ إﻟﻰ ﻓﻀﺎء ﻋﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﺸﺮط‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪ P(B|A) ≠ P(A|B) .2‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم‬

‫‪ .3‬إذا آﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺮص‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪ .5‬ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﻀﺮب ﻓﻲ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬

‫اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ Ac‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪B‬‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬

‫‪P(A) = 0.4‬‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A‬هﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ أﺣﺪ اﻷﻳﺎم{‬

‫)‪P(A) P(B) = (0.4)(0.4) = 0.16 = P(A∩B‬‬

‫ﺣﺎدﺛﺔ هﻄﻮل اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻳﺎم‬

‫ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪} = A‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻷوﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{ و ‪}= B‬اﻟﻜﺮة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء{‬

‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺐ آﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ‪ 30‬آﺮة = )‪n(S‬‬

‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺐ آﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬آﺮة = )‪n(A∩B‬‬

‫‪P(A∩B) = n(A∩B)/n(S) = (380)(870) = 0.4368‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ A1,A2,A3,…,An‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ .3‬اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬

‫‪STAT101-Dr.Khalid Al-Nowibet‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬

A1∩B A2∩B A3∩B ... An∩B

B B ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ‬

P(B) = P(B|A1) P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) + … +P(B |An)P(An)

‫‪A1‬‬ ‫‪A2‬‬ ‫‪A3‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫‪An‬‬

‫اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ⇔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ‪B‬‬

‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺰ ⇔ ﺑﺸﺮط ﺣﺪوث اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﻮﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪Ai‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ A1,A2,A3,…,An‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ .3‬اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪A1,A2,A3,…,An‬‬

‫‪ .4‬اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ‪B‬‬

‫‪P(A1) =0.5‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A1) =0.7‬‬

‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ‬ ‫‪P(B) = 0.58‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ‬

‫‪P(A1) =0.2‬‬ ‫‪P(B|A1) =0.01‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄن اﻟﻤﺼﺒﺎح ﺗﺎﻟﻒ‬

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