Why Could Tocqueville Predict so Well?

Author(s): Roger Boesche

Source: Political Theory, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Feb., 1983), pp. 79-103
Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.
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 WHY COULD TOCQUEVILLE
PREDICT SO WELL?

ROGER BOESCHE
OccidentalCollege

ORE THAN A CENTURY aftermostofTocqueville'scontempo-

rarieshave become curiositiesto all but a few specializedscholars,
newspaperjournalistsroutinely summontheauthorityof Tocqueville,
and undergraduateteachersregularlyassign Democracyin America
and The Old Regime.Tocqueville'swritings continueto intrigueus for
two reasons:first,his politicalinsightsremainremarkably useful,and
second,probablyno othernineteenth-century thinkerpredictedfuture
politicaleventsas well. Amongmanypossibleexamples,considerthe
followingpredictionsby Tocqueville:theriseof the UnitedStatesand
Russia as the two dominantsuperpowers;'the politicaltensionsand
occasionalrevoltsresulting fromblackAmericansseekingequality;2 the
nearannihilationofNorthAmerica'sNativeAmericanpopulation;3the
unificationof Germanyonlybyforceof Prussianarms;4thepersistent
influenceoftheEnglisharistocracyin Britishpoliticsdespitethehopes
of other liberal thinkers;5the murderouswar betweenFrance and
Algeria that followedfromthe French patternof colonization;6the
gradual centralizationof governmental and privateeconomicpower,
bringingabout a worlddominatedby bureaucracies(and he probably
inventedtheword"bureaucracy");7 thegrowingfeelingsofisolationand
powerlessnessthat have become the concernof so manytwentieth-
centurywriters;8 and finally,and mostdramatically, his publicpredic-
tion of France's 1848 revolutionless than one month beforeits
eruption.9
Despite this astonishingrecord,few modernsocial scientistsand
politicaltheoristshave been enticedto wonderwhyTocquevillewas so
successfulinforetellingfuture events.Howeverimportant, thisquestion
is noteasyto answer.In understanding whyTocquevillecouldpredictso
well,one mustreconstruct carefully (1) howTocquevilleconceptualized

POLITICAL THEORY, Vol. II No 1. February1983 79-103

? 1983Sage Publications.Inc.
0090-5917 83 010079-25$2.75
79

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80 POLITICAL THEORY I FEBRUARY 1983

any given society; (2) the methodologywith which he tried to

comprehendthe institutions, behavior,customs,and cultureof any
singlesociety;and (3) theseemingly deductivemethodheusedto predict
politicaland historicalevents.
Scholars may have avoided this aspect of Tocqueville's thought
becauseinorderto reconstruct histhinkingon thesematters,
theywould
have had to uncoverand displayhis enormousdebtto a centuries-old
Frenchsociologicaltraditionthatincludessuchfiguresas Montaigne,
Bodin, Pascal, Voltaire,Montesquieu,Helvetius,Rousseau, Bonald,
Guizot,and Michelet.To invokea Frenchtraditionofsociologyis not
to suggestthistraditionis homogeneousor monolithic:Montesquieu
refinesBodin,Helvetiusborrowsfromand also criticizesMontesquieu,
La Mettrieand Holbach imitatetheEnglish,and,as we willsee laterin
this essay, in one importantmattersome French thinkersof the
nineteenth centuryrejectthegreatDescartesin favoroftheNeapolitan
Vico. Nevertheless, veryfewTocquevillecommentators acknowledge
and explorethe influenceon himof so manyfiguresin thehistoryof
Frenchsocial and politicalthought.'0Whilecommentators too often
compare him to such English liberals as Mill, a close reading of
Tocqueville'snotebooksand lettersrevealsthathe payscomparatively
little attentionto English liberalism,but instead reads Bossuet's
sermonsfor pleasure,immerseshimselfin the austere existenceof
Pascal's ProvincialLetters,and carriestheworksof Montesquieuand
Rousseau withhim at all times." To describeTocqueville'spolitical
methodology, one necessarilyand simultaneouslymustdemonstrate his
debt to some membersof thisFrenchsociologicaltradition.

TOCQUEVILLE'S CONCEPTION OF SOCIETY

The Part Reveals the Whole

The most basic assumptionunderlyingTocqueville'swork is his

beliefthateveryaspect of society-law, religion,customs,literature,
politics,economics,and so forth-dynamically interrelates
withevery
other,so thatthepartalwaysreflects thewhole.Tocquevilleinherited
this methodologicalassumptionfrom other French thinkers.Both
Bodin,in suggestingthat"thereis ... suchgreatcohesionofpartsand of
the whole that if theyare torn asunder theycannot possiblystand

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 Boesche /; TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 81

alone," and Pascal, in sayingthat "the partsof the world are all so
relatedand linkedto one anotherthatI believeit impossibleto know
one withouttheotherand withoutthewhole,"reflect thisposition.'2 To
expressthisidea, Frenchthinkersoftencite,paraphrase,or pilfera well-
knownpassage fromPlutarch:13

Itmustbeborneinmindthatmydesignisnottowrite butlives.Andthe
histories,
mostgloriousexploitsdo notalwaysfurnishus withtheclearest
discoveries
of
virtue
orviceinmen;sometimes a matter
oflessmoment,an expression
orajest,
informsus betteroftheircharactersand inclinations,
thanthemostfamoussieges,
thegreatest
armaments,
or the bloodiestbattleswhatsoever.'4

Thus, when ponderingthe idea of undertaking a biographyof Male-

sherbes,Tocquevillewrote,"It is inthedetailsthatmanshowswhathe
is. ")5

This convictionthat knowledgeof the whole emergesfrom a

thoroughunderstanding of any one partis also illustratedbyTocque-
ville'sassertionsthatthetruthenfoldsitselfinthe"minutest particulars"
and thathe himselfbeginsanyquestforknowledgebyexamining"from
verynearbytheparticularcase whichis bestknownto me."'6Specific
examplesof thisassumptionselectedfromTocqueville'swritings seem
innumerable.The evolutionof one word,forinstance,can revealthe
entireclass structure of society.

A studyoftheconnection between thehistory of languageand history proper

wouldcertainly berevealing.Thusifwefollow themutations intimeandplaceof
the Englishwordgentleman (a derivativeof our gentilhomme), we findits
connotations beingsteadily
widened inEngland as theclassesdrawnearertoeach
otherandintermingle. Ineachsuccessivecentury wefinditbeingappliedtomena
littlelowerinthesocialscale.... AndnowinAmerica itisapplicable
toallmale
citizens, Thusitshistory
indiscriminately. is thehistoryofdemocracy itself.'"

Similarly,twohouseholds,one in Kentuckyand one inOhio,separated

onlyby a river,by themselves exemplify thedifferencesbetweenslave
and nonslave cultures.'8Moreover,democraticsocietyrevealsitself
bothin thegamesofchildrenand ina singledance,because,inthelatter
instance,a dance witha highadmissioncharge"can give an idea of
Americansociety.Moneyis theonlyformofsocial distinction; butsee
how arrogantlyit classifiesindividuals."'9Nothing,as he said in his
famousJanuary1848speechpredicting theforthcoming revolution,is
an "isolatedfact,"because"each individualfactmirrorsand illuminates
the whole."20

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82 POLITICAL THEORY / FEB-RUARY 1983

Societyas an Intricate
Mobile

Upon arrivingin Algeria,Tocquevillewrotethat"thearchitecture

paintsthe needs and the mores."Indeed,the architecture
alone

paintsexcellentlythe social and politicalconditionof the Moslemand Eastern

populations:thepolygamy,thesequestrationof women,theabsenceofall public
life,a tyrannicaland touchygovernment thatforceseach to conceal his lifeand
throwsall the affectionsof the hearttowardthe interiorof the family.2'

In thisexample,Tocquevilleexpressestheancientbeliefthata society
resemblesa fabricin whichtheelementsareinterwoven and interdepen-
dent.Montaigne,forexample,depictssocietyas a fabricthat"sewsitself
together" overtime.22 Perhapsa morepreciseimagesurfacesinmodern
language; societyseems to resemblea delicatelybalanced mobile in
whicheveryaspect settlesintoitspositionas a resultof thecomposite
influenceof everyother.23Laws, religion,art,architecture, economic
considerations,manners,language,literature, and so forth,lean upon
one another.Althoughtheimageof a mobilemaybe modern,theidea
supportingthis image is at least as old as Plato, who fearedthat
changingonlythemusicwould transform all of society.In theFrench
tradition,Montaigneputsit well:"'Societyis likea structure ofdiverse
piecesjoined together,of such intimacy,thatit is impossibleto shake
one, withoutthewhole bodyfeelingit."24Respondingto a questionof
how to reformPoland, Rousseau maintainsthata changein thegames
of childrenwould suffice.25 Similarly,Bonald fearsthata slightand
singlechangein the divorcelaws wouldalter,and ruin,thewonderof
Frenchcivilization.26Ifeach aspectstandsina dynamicand interdepen-
dent relationto everyother,to alter one aspect is to altertheentire
configuration.
Tocquevillemakesuse ofthismethodological assumptioninsuggest-
ing that a society is an "ensemble" in which the elements are
"indissolublyunited."27Indeed, the second volume of Democracy
endeavorsto demonstratehow language,literature,the relationsof
mastersand servants, thestatusofwomen,thefamily, property, politics,
and so forth,mustchange and align themselvesin a new,symbiotic
configurationas a resultofthehistorical
thrusttowardequality.28 Ifany
singleelementremainsunalignedin this culturalmobile,thensome
alterationoftheelementor thewholemustoccur.For example,theold
feudalnotionof honor,answeringtheneedsofa military society,must
yield to a notion of honor that satisfiesthe needs of a commercial

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 BoeschelTOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 83

Similarly,because slaveryconflictsso dramaticallywiththe

society.29
predominant idea ofequality,one discoversa constantpressureto alter
theculturalmobile.30
Accordingto Tocqueville,each social mobileexhibitsone or more
"generating thatconveythespiritor characterofthewhole.31
principles"
The generatingprinciplein Indianculture,Tocquevilleargues,follow-
ing Abh Dubois, was the Hindu religion:

The mannerof greeting each other;thatof dressing theformof

themselves;
clothing, jewelsandotherornaments; theiradjustmentandthediversedetailsof
one'scostume; thewayofbuilding houses,thecorner inwhich onemustplacethe
hearth, thatinwhichonemustputthehousehold vessels;themanner-of
goingto
bedandofsleeping; therulesofcivility
andpolitenessthatmustreign
amongthem,
andhas religion
all ... is ruledbysuperstition fora theme.32

Similarly,the economic characteristics

of European feudalismper-
vaded, and largelydetermined,everyaspect of societyin medieval
Europe.

Everyinstitution
thathaslongbeendominant, afterestablishing
itself
initsnatural
sphere,
extendsitself,
andendsbyexercising a largeinfluence
overthosebranches
oflegislation
whichitdoesnotgovern....Theoldfeudalinstitutions stillentered
intotheverytextureofthereligious
andpolitical ofalmostthewholeof
institutions
Europe;theyhad also givenriseto a hostofideas,sentiments, manners, and
customs which,so to speak,adheredto them.33

Always,thepartmirrors thewhole,and one onlygraspsthepartfullyby

referringto the whole. When Tocqueville was just beginningto
formulateideas forhis Old Regime,he wroteto Kergorlay:"I see the
partsof such a work,but I do not perceivetheensemble;I verymuch
havethethreads,
butthewoofislackinginordertomakethecloth."34

THE SOCIAL PATTERN OF MEANING

TheSpiritofa Culture

How doesTocquevillepicturetherelationshipamongthedifferent
components insociety?
In a mechanical
conception ofthesocialworld,
a colnception
offeredby Hobbesand refined bymuchofpresent-day
socialscience,
theelementsofsociety
relatetoeachotheronlycausally.

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84 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

Expressing-hisdebtto Englishempiricistssuchas LockeandNewton,

Holbachsuggests thatthepartsoftheuniverseare"connected" because
theycompose"an immense chainofcausesandeffects."135
Butcausality,
thegoalofthenaturalsciences, doesnotrepresent theonlycategory of
significanceinthehumanworld,as Diltheyargueda fewdecadesafter
Tocqueville.36 Whereasnaturalscientists frequently claim thatto
specifythecauseofanything istoexhaustone'stask,inthestudyofthe
humanworlda causalexplanation is byitselfimportant,butinsuffi-
Inaddition
cient.37 to-knowledgeofcauses,Dilthey claimsthehistorian
or politicalanalystmustobtainknowledge of"livedexperience"orof
"6meanings, he
which, declares,is the"Scategory mostproperto his-
toricalthought."38To understand an event,an action,a gesture,
or a
word,onemustplaceitintheentire patternofmeaning foundinsociety.
"Theelementary actsofwhichcomplexactionsarecomposed, suchas
theliftingup ofan object,thelettingfallofa hammer, thesawingof
wood, betokenforus the presenceof certainpurposes."39
One grasps
suchpurposes, however, onlybylivingwithin, ortransportingoneself
into,themeaningful fabricofsociety.
CertainlyFrenchthinkers seekto findlawsofcausalityinhistoryor
politics;Bodinpromises to uncover "universal
laws"inhisdesperately
difficult
Methodfor theEasyComprehension ofHistory, andMontes-
quieWs attemptswerefrequently admired byHegelandMarx.Neverthe-
less,manyFrenchthinkers deniedthatthestudyofhistory orsociety
shouldfocussolelyon thedelineation ofcauses.Forexample,French
historianstendto depreciate the importance of factualknowledge,
becauseone mustbestowmeaning uponfactsin orderto understand
them.In thesixteenth century, Bodincautionsthehistorian notto
become"lostin details,"and twoand a halfcenturies laterGuizot
lamentsthat historians merelyregurgitate a "heap of incoherent,
inconclusive,and unconnected facts."40
Voltaireexplainsthisconvic-
tionin TheAgeof LouisXIV; notfacts,butthespiritoftheage,the
spiritthatgivesfactssignificance,
is ofcentralimportance.

Itis notmerelythelifeof Louis XIV thatwe proposeto write;,

we havea wideraim
in view.We shall endeavorto depictforposterity,
nottheactionsofa singleman,
but the spiritof men in the mostenlightenedage the world has everseen.4'

Similarly,Micheletendorsesand polishesthisconvictionthatit does

not sufficemerelyto "observefacts,"because a historianmust,
"grasp
thespirit themlife."42
giving "Espirit,"
anambiguous
wordso precious
to

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 Boesche / TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 85

theFrenchtradition, constitutesthatfabricofmeanings thatbestows

significanceto facts,a fabricthatreflectstheaspirations,
values,fears,
and needsofa givenculture or subculture.
Not surprisingly, Tocquevilleagreesthathistorical knowledge is
morethanmerefactualknowledge. In hisnotesforthesecondvolume
on the FrenchRevolution, Tocquevillewritesthat"one shouldbe
involvedwithas fewfactsanddetailsas possible," because,as hewrites
to Reeve,itis moreimportant tograspthe"spiritofthetimes."43
"Tryto
penetratedeeplyintothepassionswithin eachclass,"heremindshimself
inhisprivate notebooks. "Whathadanimated them: whattheythought,
demanded, wishedand hopedfor."44 Indeed,evenifno historianever
discovered one newfactconcerning theFrenchRevolution, valuable
newbooksmight stillbe written to expressthespiritoftherevolution
fromalternate,butimportant,
perspectives.45
This convictionthatfacts
remainmisunderstood unlessplacedintheproperpattern ofmeaning
emergesmost strikingly in Tocqueville'scritiqueof Burke.After
acknowledgingthatBurke'sReflections sprang froma "powerful
mind"
thatcouldunderstand "indetail"theeventsandtheirimmediateeffects,
Tocquevillesuggeststhat Burkeplaced.thesedetailsin a web of
meanings thatno longerappliedto theFrenchpoliticaland cultural
world.AlthoughBurkeperceived the factsaccurately,
althoughhe
describedtheeventsclearly, oftheFrenchRevolution
hisinterpretation
wasincomplete andinaccurate,becausehisanalysisremained"confined
withintheoldworld," blindtothe"newanduniversal meaningofwhat
is happening."46

Moeurs

Partof whatDiltheycallsa webof meanings, theFrenchsimply

labellesmoeurs, a wordsignifying
customs,habits,andmanners, all of
whichassistindisclosingwhata peopleconsidersmeaningful.Forthe
French, and lawswithout
to changeinstitutions altering
moeurs,is to
changeverylittle, one
formoeursconstitute of thebestindicationsofa
or
people'sspirit character.
This on
emphasis moeurs overlawspossibly
originated in the Frenchlove of both Plutarch,who assertsthat
Lycurgus avoidedtheuseoflawsin Spartainfavorofa codeofhonor
"imprinted andalsoofTacitus,
ontheirhearts," whodeclares thatinthe
RomanEmpire "thelawsweremostnumerous whenthecommonwealth
was most corrupt."47 While Montesquieurepeatsthese convictions,
liftsthesepassagesintohisownwritings.48
Rousseaupractically

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86 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

For Tocqueville,moeursreflect
not onlyvaluesand meanings
in
butalso feelings
society, andemotions,
indeedtheentire
character
ofa
people.

I have previouslyremarkedthatthemannersof thepeople maybe consideredas

one of thegreatgeneralcauses to whichthemaintenanceofa democraticrepublic
in the UnitedStates is attributable.
I hereuse thewordcustomswiththemeaning
whichtheancientsattachedto thewordmores,forI applyitnotonlyto manners
properlyso-called-that is,to whatmightbe termedihehabilsoftheheart-but to
thevariousnotionsand opinionscurrent amongmenandto themassofthoseideas
whichconstitute theircharacterof mind.I compriseunderthisterm,therefore,
the
whole moraland intellectualconditionof a people.49

Thusmoeursconstitute the"characterofmind"and the"wholemoral

andintellectual ofa givenculture,
condition" something would
Dilthey
call thepatternof meanings. PerhapsmorethananyotherFrench
thinker,Tocquevillebelieves
thatmoeurs areofgreater importance
than
lawsinmaintaining a society,
andthatto altera society
onemustalter
theprism ofmeanings through whicha culture
viewstheworld."Mores
aretheonlytoughanddurablepoweramonga people."50 IntheUnited
States,"libertyappearstomestillmoreinthemoresthaninthelaws."51
Similarly, to Beaumont hewrites:

But how difficult

it is to establishlibertysolidlyamongpeopleswho havelostthe
practiceand even the correctnotionof it! What greaterimpotencethanthatof
whenideas and moresdo not nourishthem.52
institutions,

theSpiritand theMoeurs
Understanding
Thenaturalscientist
andthemodern socialscientistseekto explain
theparticularbythelawsthatgovernit,thusconcentrating on events
thatare repeatable.
Contending thatsocialphenomena are"governed
bythesamelawsas therestoftheuniverse,"Durkheim concedesthat"if
-societies
are notsubjectto laws,no socialscienceis possible."Ifthe
eventsofthehumanworldcouldnotbesubsumed undergeneral laws,
then"thebestwecoulddo wouldbetotreatsuchrealities inthemanner
of poets and storytellers."53
By contrast,Tocquevilleand manyof his
Frenchpredecessors
pursuenot onlyknowledge
of whatis general,

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 Boesche TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 87

uniform, knowledgeof
and repeatable,butalso, and moreimportantly,
what is unique. ConsiderVoltaire:

We do notproposeto repeathereall thathas beenwritten aboutthesedissensions,

and copy out wholebooks in orderto presentto our readersa multitude ofdetails
oncevaluableand important, butnowalmostforgotten; we mustrathershowwhat
characterizedthe spiritof the nation,and say less of whatis commonto all civil
wars than of what especiallydistinguished thatof the Fronde.54

The unique eventTocquevillemostwantsto understandis, of course,

theFrenchRevolution."In itself,itis notonlygrand,butsingular,even
unique;and nevertheless, untilnow,at least in myopinion,ithas been
reproducedwithfalseor vulgarcolors."55
Knowledgeoftheuniqueoverlapscomfortably withthatspecialkind
of knowledgediscussedbyDilthey:thatis,a knowledgeofmeanings,or,
as theFrenchputit,knowledgeofthespiritofa cultureand themoeurs
of a people. As Diltheysays,knowledgeoftheunique is an attemptto
know the particularby "livedexperience"ratherthan to explainthe
causalityof particularsbygenerallaws; an effortto livethemeaningof
behavior from the "inside"ratherthan to observeitfromtheoutside.56
Consequently, knowledge ofthe human world arisesonlyafterinserting
oneselfinto theunique fabricof meanings distinguishinga cultureand,
in Dilthey'swords,"reliving" and then "reconstructing'thisfabric.57
forthismethod,and Isaiah Berlin
Vico firstoutlinedthejustification
summarizesVico's argument:

Man can understandhimself... becausehe is able to reconstruct (in

imaginatively
Aristotle'sphrase) what he did and what he suffered, his hopes,wishes,fears,
his acts, and his works,both his own and those of his fellows.58
efforts,

Montesquieu,who owned a copy of Vico's New Science,once said of

himselfthat when he came to speak of ancienthistory,"he triedto
assume the spiritof antiquityand to become an ancienthimself."59
Herder,who influencednineteenth-century Frenchhistoriansthrough
Cousin and Guizot, insiststhat a good historian must "transplant
cultureor epoch, and, in a marvelousimage,
himself'into a different
suggeststhatwe can understanda personfromanothercultureonlyif
we "swimup and downthestreamofhissong."60In languagelesspoetic,
Guizotvowsto "resuscitate"thepast,whileMichelet,Vico's translator,

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88 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

endeavorsto "resurrect Allembodya positionlaterassumed

history."
byDilthey:"Lifeis thatwhichis knownfromwithin."'61
Tocqueville,despiteall his differenceswithromantics such as
Michelet,placeshimselfwithinthistraditionbyseeking to "enterinto
ormoeurs
thefeelings" ofan epoch,thatis,to"penetrate intothespirit"
untilonecan"seeitwithone'sowneyes."62
ofa culture Longhoursin
thearchivesenabledhimto uncover a "livingmemorial ofthespirit of
theold regime,thewaysmenthought and felt,theirhabits,andtheir
Whenreadingrevolutionary
prejudices."63 letters,he confides,"I
becomein somewaytheircontemporary."64 To Kergorlay, he writes:

You knowthatI am seekinglessforfactsthanforthemarchof ideasand feelings.

Theyare whatI wishto describe.My subjectconsistsinthesuccessivechangesin
the social condition,the institutions,the public opinion and mannersof the
French,as the revolutionadvanced. As yet I have discoveredonly one way of
finding thisout: itis to liveeverymomentoftherevolution
withitscontemporaries
by readingnot what has been said of them,or what theysaid afterwardsof
themselves,but whattheythemselvessaid at thetime,and, as muchas possible,
whattheyreallythought.Shortpamphletsand privateletters, etc.,aremoreuseful
forthispurposethanthedebatesintheAssembly.BythesemeansI certainly attain
myobject,whichis to livegraduallythroughtheperiod;still,myprogressisso slow
that I am oftenin despair.But is thereany otherway?65

Withoutimposinghis preconceptions, Tocquevilleendeavorsto

experiencein a personaland originalway thisuniquepatternof
meanings.Forexample,herigorouslyadheredto hisprinciple
ofnever
readinganysecondarysourcesrelating
to hissubject.

WhenI havea subjectto treat,itis almostimpossibleformeto readwhathas been

alreadywrittenon it:thecontactoftheideas of othermendisturbsand affectsme
painfully.I try,therefore,
to avoid knowingtheexplanationswhichotherwriters
have givenof the factswhichI have to relate,or theinferences whichtheyhave
drawnfromthem.... I maketheutmosteffort to ascertain,fromcontemporary
evidence,whatreallyhappened.... WhenI havegatheredinthistoilsomeharvest,
I retire,as it were,intomyself.66

PoliticalKnowledgeUnderstood
and CommunicatedwithLiteraryTechniques

Sinceknowledge ofa webofmeanings

differs
fromknowledge ofa
statistical
studyofhumanbehavior,
communicatingthisunderstanding

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 Boesche / T OCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 89

must differas well. To Tocqueville,whose generationdescribedSir

Walter Scott as a historian,historyis not divorced fromart and
literature.While Tocqueville recognizesthe importanceof factsand
he maintainsthat the politicalanalystneeds more than
statistics,67
factualrecitationto grasp and transmitknowledgeof meanings.An
author mustenable a readerto see an epoch for himself,to live it
indirectly,to resurrectit creatively,to reconstructit imaginatively.
Whereas Descartes regardedimaginationand passion as enemiesof
knowledge,Vico and later romanticssuch as Michelet felt that
knowledgeof the human world requiredimaginationand passion.
Armed with this assumption,Tocqueville's generationblurredthe
distinctionbetweenhistorianand artist.Once more,Tocquevilleand his
contemporaries leaned upon keyfiguresin Frenchsocial thought.
Bodin claims that historycan be "placed beforeour eyes as in a
picture,"and Montesquieu,in the introductionto The Spiritof the
Laws, openlyborrowsCorreggio'swords:"And I too am a painter."68
While Balzac characterizeshimselfas the "historianof our changing
customs,"Stendhalregardshis workas a "chronicleof the milieu."69
Hugo refersto himselfas the "historianof morals and ideas," and
Dumas half-seriously praisesLamartineforraisinghistoryto thelevel
of the novel.70Taine, oftenlauded as a founderof social science,
numbersBalzac, Stendhal,and Sainte-Beuveamongthemostscientific
historiansof his time!7"
Tocqueville,too, intermingles historyand literature.As Beaumont
says,Tocqueville"feltthateverycreationofthemind,greatorsmall,isa
workof art."72In fact,Tocquevilledescribeshis own workin artistic
terms.In a letterto Freslon,he declares,"The designof a book is like
thatof a picture;itsperfection does notdependupon thefinishof one
part-but on the relationsbetweenall the parts,whencearises the
generaleffect."'73
In his notes,he announces,"I wantto painttheGreat
Revolution,"'and, like an authenticromanticartist,"I cannot work
unlessI am strongly excited."74Not surprisingly, Tocqueville'sliterary
techniquesseekto createimagesin themindofthereader.To takeonly
one example,Tocquevilleconveysthesuggestionthattherulingclassof
the twelfthcenturywas not remarkablywealthyand comfortable
throughliteraryimages that remindthe readerthat the walls oozed
moistureand that in wintertime thesemendesperatelyburnedentire
treeswithoutevermanagingto become warm.75

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90 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

PlacingMeaningsintoa Larger
Historical
and PoliticalContext

Tocqueville realizedthatthe mereperceptionof meaningsand the

re-creationof this perceptionare importanttasks for the political
analystor historian,butbythemselves insufficient.Ifhistoricalorpolit-
ical knowledgewereequivalentmerelyto seeingmeaningsthroughthe
eyesofthoselivingina givenepoch,theneverydiaryand chroniclefrom
thepastwouldbe a finishedhistoricalwork.Tocquevillearguesthatthe
historianor political analyst must show the broad significanceof
meanings,a significancethatescapes all but the mostastuteof those
livingin a givencultureorepoch.For example,Tocquevillerecordsthat
thepeopleofa villagebecameangryundertheOld Regimewhenforced
to applyto Paristo makerepairson a local church.Tocquevillesituates
this meaningfulangerin its largercontextas evidencesupportinghis
general contentionthat eighteenth-century monarchicalpower, in
graduallycentralizingthe nation,removedall usefulfunctionsof the
local nobility,whilestillleavingits privileges.
The historian'sresponsibilityemergesespeciallyin momentsof rapid
and far-reaching change. Duringthe FrenchRevolution,Tocqueville
argues,"not one thoroughly understoodthedeep and secretsourceof
hisownemotions"because"itis difficult forindividualscarriedalongby
greatmovementsto see amongstthecauses thereal motivesbywhich
theythemselvesare moved."76This difficulty arises especiallyduring
periodsofswiftchangebecausenewideas and thenewmeaningsbehind
theseideas clothethemselves in the"swaddlesofantiquity"byinvoking
"dustyprecedents draggedout fromtheatticofthepast."177 The political
analystmustlearnthelessonthatthenewalmostalwaysappearsinthe
adornmentof theold. The Frenchpeople of the 1780sperceivedthem-
selvesas reestablishingthejusticeofan ancientordereventhoughtheir
actions signaledits fall. "Who would have imaginedthatthe passion
whichcausedtheassertionofall thesetraditional rightswas theveryone
whichirresistibly led to theircompleteabolitionT'78
But howdoes thepoliticalanalystor thehistorianuncoverthislarger
context?The politicalanalystmustplace his or herculturalmobileor
patternof meaningsintoa historicalcontext;in otherwords,he or she
mustplace an ahistoricalanalysisin historicalmotion.Atthispoint,the
significanceof eventsand behaviorwill alter,as the politicalanalyst
discoverswhich elementsof societyare powerfulenough to propel
history.Afterreconstructing meanings,one turnsto causalityand
prediction.

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 Boesche X TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 91

HISTORICAL AND POLITICAL PREDICTION

and Tendencies,
Dispositions
or How to DeducetheFuture

Montaigne cleverly
likensallcustomstothecalfcarriedlovingly
bya
younggirluntilitgrewto be a cow,a quaintanecdoteillustrating
the
Frenchconvictionthatcustoms andinstitutions,
onceestablished,
tend
toacquirea momentum oftheirown.Thustounderstandthecustoms or
moresofsociety,one mustadopta historicalperspective.
The keywords
in Frenchpoliticalthoughtthatrevealthisassumption
are "la tendance"
and"ladisposition, "twowordsonecanfindintheworkofmanyFrench
thinkers, fromRabelaisto Tocqueville.Each thinker assumesthata
politicalanalystor historian mustnotsimply describewhataspectsof
societyhe or sheperceives, butalso mustelucidatewhattheseaspects
tendor are disposedto become.WhileBossuetcontendsthat"the
scienceof history is to observeineachperiodoftimethosesecretdis-
positions whichhaveprepared greatchanges," Fenelonmaintains that
historicalcausalityarisesfrom a nation's
"characteranddisposition."179
Boulanger arguespassionately thata nationthatestablishes a priest-
hoodwilltendtowarddespotism, evenifthepeopleare"notawareof
theabuseswhichmustarisefromit oneday."180
Atthispointwe havereturned to theimageofsociety as a mobile.
Oncethepolitical analyst thatoneelement
perceives insociety willtend
towardchange, thenheorshecansurmise thattheentire
cultural mobile
will eventually demanda new balanceor configuration. Having
delineated a historical
tendency, heorshecandeduceprobable political
change,and it is this deductivemethodology, so frustrating to
Durkheim and Bryce,8' thatenabledTocquevilleto predictgradual
changesina variety ofcultural mobiles.Although thewords"deduce"
and"deduction" aresadlyimprecise, becausehistoryandsociety offer
fewsimpleAristotelian themethodproceedsin a loosely
syllogisms,
deductive manner rather different
fromtheempiricism and induction
characteristicofmodernsocialscience.
Considertwoexamplesofsuchdeduction, onefromHelvetius and
onefromMontesquieu. Helv6tius
talksofEngland's necessary decline:

It is becauseof thespiritof trade,whichnecessarily leads in itstrainto a tastefor

luxuryand effeminacy; . . . [it] musteverydayincrease,intheiresteem,thevalueof
gold,and industry mustdailydiminishtheirregardforthemilitary art,and evenfor
courage.82

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92 POLITICAL. THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

Compressedintothispassage is a complicated,deductiveapproachto
politicalanalysis.Havingsupposedlyunderstoodtheessentialcharac-
teristicof theEnglishspirit-thespiritoftrade-one can deducethata
taste for luxurymust "necessarily"follow. In the fine fashion of
eighteenth-century Frenchthinkersdreamingof an idealizedRoman
Republic, Helv6tiusassumes that a nation distinguishedby luxury
cannot maintainthe austerityessentialto militarycourage.Accurate
or not,thisreasoningis crudelydeductive.
Montesquieu'sworkon Rome, whichTocquevillecalls the"'inimit-
able model" for his own historicalendeavors,83exemplifiesthis
deductiveapproach.Romansuccess,Montesquieuargues,originated in
the principlesof frugality,
self-control,
militarydiscipline,and a rigid
code of honor that soughtto overcomeself-interest. Yet one could
deduce (withthe superbadvantageof hindsight)that,along withthe
verypoliticaland militarysuccessesproducedbythisethic,historically
new conditionswould emergethat would graduallyunderminethe
originalethic.To be precise,whentheEmpirefinallyemerged,material
abundance resultingfrommilitaryconquestunderminedthe need for
frugalityand self-control;
withabundance,self-interestalso flourished.
Leftwithan ethicsanctioningmilitary expansion,butdeprivedof any
personalethicrestrainingthismilitarism,theRomansdegeneratedinto
barbarityand atrocity.
Rome was made forexpansion,and itslawswereadmirableforthispurpose.... It
lost its libertybecause itcompletedtheworkit wroughttoo soon. .. Here,in a
word,is thehistoryof the Romans. By meansoftheirmaximstheyconqueredall
peoples, but when they had succeeded in doing so, theirrepubliccould not
endure.84

No thinkerin the Frenchtraditionacceptedtheassumptionofthis

methodof analysisas thoroughlyas did Tocqueville.To beginwith,
Tocquevilleneverembarkedupon a politicalanalysiswithoutplacing
his observationsin historicalperspective.Mindfulof both past and
future,he frequentlyuses the words "tendency"and "disposition,"
wonderingwhatwill blossomand whatwill decay,as historyunfolds
fromseeds plantedin the past and present.For example,in an 1831
letterwrittento Kergorlayfromthe UnitedStates,Tocquevillebegins
witha simpledescriptionof whathe sees in New York,shifting quickly
to a paragraphdiscussing"dispositions"ratherthan "accomplished
facts." He then raises the question of an "aristocratictendencyin
America," but concludes negativelysince the democratictendency

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 Boesche / TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 93

all others.85
stifles Elsewhere, describes
Tocqueville hisOld Regimeas
"nota historynora seriesofphilosophical buta mixture
observations,
of both"in whichhe triesto seize "thedistinctive
featureof each
successiveperiod. . . dwellingmoreon thegeneraltendencyof events
thanon particularincidents."86
Finally,theentiresecondvolumeofDemocracy is,in itsbroadest
sense,a seriesofdeductions to explainthevastchangesin
attempting
NorthAmerican andEuropeansocieties
thatwillbe brought byan ir-
resistible
tendencytowardequality.
WhilewritingDemocracy, hetells
Beaumont whateffect
thetendencytowardequalitywillhaveondemo-
craticgovernment.

The chapterthatI am writingat thismomenthas foritsobjecttheexaminationof

whatinfluencethedemocraticideas and sentiments exerciseon thegovernment. I
began,leaningtheedificeofmybook on all this,byestablishing that
theoretically
the ideas and the sentimentsof democraticpeoples, unlesstheyare restrained,
makethemtendnaturallytowardthe concentration ofall powersin thehandsof
the centraland nationalauthority.87

To elaborateandsummarize, Tocquevillesuggests thatequalityneces-

theoldgroups,
sarilydestroys guilds,andclassesinherentinaristocratic
society.Consequently, separated fromtheold classesandgroupsthat
furnished themidentification, and alone in a moreegalitarian if
atomizedsociety,individuals findthemselvesisolatedin theirprivate
worldsand hencepowerlesspolitically. One can predictthatonly
organizedpower,in thiscase the centralgovernment, willrushto
occupytheresulting publicand politicalvacuum.
His methodcommences withtendenciesanddispositions andmakes
itsway,inferencebyinference, untilthefuture canbe deduced.What
modernsocialscientist woulddare say withTocquevillethat,while
knowing thebehavioroftheimmediate futureis impossible,
owingto
thevagariesofindividual passions,
neverthelessthedistant"future...
thoughfarther off,[is] lessobscure"?88

Needs

Themostimportant questionbeginstomovefromobscuritytoclar-
ity.Whatgivesbirthto meanings, and historical
mores,tendencies,
change?Tocquevilleand theFrenchsociological
tradition
arguethat
societies
needsofentire orgroupsorclassesshapethecultural
mobile,

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94 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

its tendenciesfor change, and ultimatelypolitical and historical

development.89 Montesquieu delineates most closely the idea that
moresare a responseto needs, a usefulidea laterweightilylabeled
"structuralfunctionalism.""It is the varietyof wants in different
climates,"claimsMontesquieu,"thatfirstoccasioneda differenceinthe
mannerof living,and thisgave riseto a varietyof laws."90In one of
Montesquieu'sexamples, he talks about the spiritof trade as the
dominatingcharacteristic
of Marseilles,butthisspiritarose fromneed.

The sterility
of theadjacentcountrydetermined thecitizensto an economiccom-
merce.It was necessarythattheyshould be laboriousto supplywhatnaturehad
refused. .. thattheyshould be frugalin theirmannersto enablethemto subsist
by trade.9'

Clearly the word "need" overlaps conveniently withthe word "ten-

dency,"because society'sneeds are not deterministic forces.Rome
neededa militaristicethicto surviveitsinfancy,and Marseillesneededa
commercialspiritto prosper,butiftheleadersofthesesocietieshad not
respondedcreativelyto theseneeds,Romanswould have disappeared
like dozens of other tribal groups on the Italian peninsula,and
Marseilleswould neverhave becomean importantseaport.
Tocquevillereinforces Montesquieu'sconvictionthata societyem-
bracescertaindominatingprinciples, whichhe calls"generatingprinci-
ples,"and healso acknowledgesthattheseprinciples springfromcertain
needs and interestspeculiarto a society.92The medievalaristocracy,
answeringtheneed of safetyin a worldof dispersedand hostileforces,
developedrulesof honor thatwere not arbitrary."The peculiarrule
whichwas called honorbyour forefathers is so farfrombeingan arbi-
trarylaw in myeyesthatI wouldreadilyengageto ascribeitsmostinco-
herentand fantasticinjunctionsto a smallnumberof fixedand invari-
able needs inherentin feudalsociety."93 By contrast,Americanswere
permeatedwitha commercialprinciplederivedfromtheneedsof "the
social condition,theirpoliticalinstitutions,and even the regionthey
inhabit."94The commercialneeds of American societyaltered the
aristocraticnotion of honor. "The Americanlauds as a noble and
praiseworthyambition what our forefathersin the Middle Ages
stigmatizedas severecupidity."95
To be sure,withina culturalfabricof meanings,all texturesare not
identical,becausegroupsand classesexhibitdifferent setsofneeds,and
hencedistinctalthoughrelatedpatternsof meaningsoccurand mustbe

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 Boesche / TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 95

explained.Tocquevillethusdexterouslywieldsa well-developedsoci-
ologyof knowledge.Each memberof a class or a groupseestheworld
througha prismof meanings,whichare attributable to theneedsofthat
group,class,or subculture.Before1789,thethirdestate"had opinions,
prejudices,and a nationalspiritof its own."96Similarly,each castein
India "formsa smallseparatenation,whichhas itsownseparatespirit,
practices,laws, government."97

CONCLUSION

By now the pieces of Tocqueville's methodologicalpuzzle have

almostjoined together,and we can beginto discernwhyTocqueville
could predictso well. Tocqueville'smethodologyrequiresan analysis
withtwo distinctbut overlappingstages:theunderstanding of society,
and the investigation of historicaland politicalcausality.
Tocquevillefirsttriedto understanda culturebyimmersing himself
in all its aspects: law, religion,habits,language,art,politics,and so
forth.In doing so, he assumed that societies or historicalepochs
resemblemobilesin whichall oftheseelementsdynamically interrelate
with each other. Moreover,Tocqueville assumed thatfullycompre-
hendinga societyrequiresunderstanding thepeople of thatsociety,in
otherwords the spiritand the moeurs,the fabricof meaningsthat
reflectsaspirations,values, habits, motivations,fears, and desires.
Balzac's characterspossessed a life and logic of theirown in their
author'seyes,and he was fondof predicting in politeconversationthe
reactionof these charactersto contemporary commentsand events.
Similarly,Tocquevillesoughtto reliveand reconstruct theOld Regime
or Americandemocracyuntilhe knewhowthepeople insucha timeor
societywould think,feel,and act.
For Tocqueville,the quest forunderstanding precededprediction
and theinvestigation ofcausality.Needs,and a creativehumanresponse
to theseneeds,originallygivebirthto theculturalpatternof meanings.
New needsofthenationas a whole,or ofclassesand groups,producea
slow, but frequently persistent,tendencyto historicalchange.As one
elementin thisculturalmobilechanges,otherelementsmusttransform
themselves as well.Thus thekeyto Tocqueville'sabilityto predictliesin
uncoveringnewneedsthatwillgeneratenewtendencies,whichin turn
will graduallyaltersociety.

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96 POILITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

One can illustratebrieflythethoughtsbehindsomeofthepredictions

listed in the openingpages of this article.For example,Tocqueville
arguesthattheidea of equalityarose fromtheneed of thecommercial
classes,who wereseekingpoliticalpowerand economicadvantages,to
finda weapon againsttheprivilegedaristocracy.98 To Tocqueville,itis
a matteroflogicaldeductionthatthissame weapon-a cryforequality
originatingin economic and politicalneeds-will be used by black
Americansina questforjustice,byParisianworkersindemandsagainst
thenew bourgeoisJulyMonarchy,by Algeriansseekingindependence
fromFrenchcontrol,and so forth.Once he has identified thetendency
forequalityand the needs of variousgroupsor classes,his deductive
methodleads to prediction.(When he predictsincorrectly thatwomen
will be contentwiththeirtraditionaldomesticrole,he misapplieshis
own method,probablybecause of his deeplyrootedconvictionabout
thenaturalstatusofwomen.)To takeanotherexampleofhisdeductive
method,the ethos of a commercialsocietynecessarilydemandsthat
individualsemphasizethe privatepursuitof wealth;one can therefore
deduce that the privatizationof life will underminepublic and
democraticparticipation, destroyold commutiities, and eventuatein
feelingsof isolationand powerlessness.In theseexamples,Tocqueville
combinesthemethodological approacheswe haveoutlinedabovewitha
loosely deductivemethodto make his predictions,all undoubtedly
spiced withthe intuitionof a brilliantpoliticalthinker.
Why was Tocqueville more successfulat politicalpredictionthan
othernineteenth-century thinkers?It seemsthatthereare two general
reasons. First,since Tocqueville roots his predictionsin a thorough
analysisof a unique cultureor epoch, he avoids the pitfallsof grand
theoriesthat,no matterhow profoundly theyhelp us understandthe
future,yearnto explainall ofhistory.Despiteall thesophisticationofhis
class analysis,and all that modernsocial scienceowes to him,didn't
Marx havefaith(a wordhe wouldofcoursereject)thatthepasthistory
ofclass struggleswouldrepeatitselfinthefuture, thattheworkingclass
would realizetheeconomicpowerinherentin working-class unityand
would feelwhat Marx called an "unembellishable" need to transform
the world?Didn't Marx clingto thiscomprehensive theorydespitehis
own later,subtleanalysisof thewaysin whichcapitalismcontainsand
channelschange: timelypolitical reforms,higherwages in England
because of profitsin India, racial antagonismbetweenthe English
workingclass and the Irish,thetenacityof capitalistworkhabitsthat
reacheddown intotheworkingclass,and so forth?Didn't Mill,armed

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 Boesche IOCQUIEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 97

withan Enlightenment optimism,possessa grandand hopefultheoryof

history that saw material,and moralprogresssauntering
intellectual,
handin handthroughtime?Didn't Millhavefaiththatthroughrational
dialogue and education we would witnessthose in power gradually
relinquishtheirprivilegesand vanquishthe veryobstaclesto freedom
and equalityhe frequently outlinedso clearly?
Second, Tocqueville was successful,because no other political
thinkerin hiscenturyso completelyimmersedhimselfin all aspectsof
the politicaland social world.In his long studyof the UnitedStates,
Tocquevillesweptfromprisonsto politics,fromfactoriesto families,
fromartiststo armies.Otherpoliticalthinkerswho triedto depictthe
futuremaywellhaveglimpsedpartofthenewindustrial world,butnot
the whole. Saint-Simon,forexample,recognizedthe growingimpor-
tance of centralization,industry, and technologicalelites,but was he
able to analyzethestrength ofold politicaltraditions
and theemergence
ofa new,private,acquisitiveethiccharacteristic ofcapitalism?Nietzsche
saw a radical change in ideas, a grand lurch toward relativism
accompaniedby an ardentquestioningof all acceptedauthorityand
objective standards once held to be inviolable, but did he ever
systematically investigatethe politicaland economicdevelopmentsof
his century?
Like many thinkers,Tocqueville builthis grasp of the nineteenth
centurynot on an Hegelianpanoramaor a naiveEnlightenment faith,
but on profoundinvestigationof the conditionsof his age. Only
Tocqueville could draw on a Frenchtheoryof historythatdepicted
historicalchange as slow but relentless,pushed by new needs and
tendenciesthatgraduallyalterthemostbasic structural componentsof
a society.
There are, however,two warningsimplicitin the methodused by
Frenchthinkers fromBodinto Tocqueville.First,needsand tendencies
do notautomatically lead to whatone mightcall historicalprogress.The
secondvolumeof Democracyoffers amplewarningthatthecommercial
spirit of a nation might produce isolation, powerlessness,and a
dangerousgovernmental centralizationas well as prosperity.Second,
humanbeingsmaynot respondintelligently to pressingneeds,because
needs do not push political actors necessarilyto the appropriate
response.Montesquieuremindsus repeatedlythat the tribeson the
ItalianpeninsulathatwerecompetingforsurvivalwithRome perished
because theycould not develop the necessarypoliticaland military
ethic.TocquevillelamentsthatFrance,facedwitha need to combine

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98 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

increasing equalitywithpoliticalfreedom, fell into the handsof

NapoleonIII. Themessage forusshouldbeclear:Theworldtodaymay
be facedwiththeneedto avoidglobalcatastrophes thatcouldemerge
fromcountless but,despitethetendency
directions, to seeksolutions,
thereis also a strong to resist
tendency change.In otherwords,thereis
no assurance thatwewillrespondintime,intelligently, orevenat all.

NOTES

There are two editions of Tocqueville's "complete" works, neitherof which is

complete.The firstwas publishedby Madame de Tocquevilleand editedbyGustavede
Beaumont(Oeuvrescompleiesd'Alexisde Tocqueville.Paris: MichelLevyFreres,1862-
1866). 1 referto thiseditionas Oeuvres(B). The second is in theprocessof publication
underthedirectionofJ. P. Mayer(Oeuvrescompletes.Paris:Gallimard,1951-).I refer to
thiseditionas Oeuvres(M). WhereverpossibleI haveusedavailableEnglishtranslations.

1. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America,trans. Henry Reeve, Francis

Bowen,and PhillipsBradley,2 vols. (New York: Vintage,1945),1: 452.
2. Ibid., 394-397;ibid., II: 270.
3. Ibid., 1: 354; Alexis de Tocqueville,Journeyto America,trans.G. Lawrence
(Garden City,NY: Doubleday, 1971),pp. 20, 120,206.
4. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), VIII, pt. 2, Correspondanced' Alexisde Tocquevilleet
de Gustavede Beaumont,pp. 133-135.
5. Alexisde Tocqueville,Correspondence and Conversationsof Alexisde Tocque-
vile withNassau WilliamSenior,from 1834 to 185S9, 2 vols. in 1, 2nd ed. (New York:
AugustusM. Kelley,1968),1: 22-24;Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), XIII, pt. 2, Correspon-
dance d'Alexis de Tocquevilleet de Louis de Kergorlay,pp. 326-327.
6. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), 111,Ecritset discourspolitiques(L'Algerie),p. 329.
7. Tocqueville, Democracy, 11: 284, 310-318, 331. On the origin of the word
"bureaucracy"see GeorgeWilsonPierson,Tocquevilleand Beaumontin America(New
York:OxfordUniversity, Press,1938),p. 713.
8. Tocqueville,Democracy,11: 11,275; Journevto America,pp. 161,290; Oeuvres
(M), VIII, p. 2, Correspondance. . . Beaumont,p. 369; Oeuvres (B), IX, Etudes,
economiques,politiques, et litteraires,pp. 115, 375-376; Oeuvres (B), VII, Nouvelle
correspondance,p. 196; and Memoir,Letters,and Remains(Boston: Ticknor& Fields,
1862),11: 169.
For modern writersconcernedwith the problemsof individualisolation and
powerlessness, see JohnDewey, The Publicand Its Problems(Chicago: Swallow Press,
1927); John Dewey, IndividualismOld and New (New York: Putnam,1930): Hannah
Arendt,The Human Condition(Garden City,NY: Doubleday, 1959); Sheldon Wolin,
Politicsand Vision(Boston:Little,Brown,1960);PhilipSlater,ThePursuitofLoneliness
(Boston: Beacon, 1970);JurgenHabermas,Towarda RationalSociety(Boston: Beacon,
1970);JiirgenHabermas,Legitimation Crisis(Boston: Beacon, 1973):C. B. Macpherson,

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 Boesche/ TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 99

DemocraticTheory:Essaysin Retrieval(Oxford: Clarendon,1973);RichardSennett,The

Fall of Public Man: The Social Psychologyof Capitalism(New York: Random House,
1978); ChristopherLasch, The Cultureof Narcissism(New York: Wamer, 1979).
9. Alexis de Tocqueville, "Speech Pronounced in the Chamber of Deputies on
January27, 1848,DuringtheDiscussionoftheProposedAnswerto theSpeechfromthe
Throne,"AppendixIll of Democracyin America,trans.byGeorgeLawrence(Garden
City,NY: Doubleday, 1969).
Of courseTocquevillemade some predictionsthatwereinaccurate.For example,he
predictedthatthe legislativebranchof the UnitedStateswould dominatetheexecutive
branch,and he predictedthatwomenin moderndemocracieswouldremaincontentwith
theirtraditionalrole withinthe household.(Democracy 1: 126; 11:222-225).
In manyofTocquevillespredictions, however,itis quitedifficultto provethathewas
wrong.One mightargue,forexample,thatTocquevillepredictedincorrectly thatlawyers
would becomean "aristocracy." And yet,evenifthelabel "aristocracy"is mistaken,some
scholarsagreewithTocqueville'sdescriptionof the role lawyersplay in thedemocratic
process:lawyerstendto resistfar-reaching change,tryto transform politicalquestions
into legal ones, dominateelectedpublicoffice,emphasizelegal processesoverpolitical
action, and mystify politicalargumentby using theirmonopolyover legal language.
(Democracy1: 282-290;see,forinstance,TimothyO'Neill,"The LanguageofEqualityina
ConstitutionalOrder,"AmericanPoliticalScience Review,September1981.)
Othersmightsuggestthatwe have not witnessedTocqueville'spredictionof a new
despotism.And yet,whileTocquevillemay not have foreseenthe murderousnatureof
twentieth-century fascism,some authorssuch as Hannah Arendtseem to agree that
Tocqueville outlined the underlyingprerequisitesof totalitarianism:powerlessness,
isolation,concernforone's own self-interest, and so forth.(See Roger Boesche,"The
Prison: Tocqueville's Model for Despotism," WesternPolitical Quarterly.December
1980.) In sum, some of Tocqueville's predictionsare difficultto categorize,because
scholars with differingpolitical convictionsdisagree about the accuracy of these
predictions.
10. Even the bestworksabout Tocquevillepay comparatively littleattentionto the
Frenchoriginsof his thought.See forexample Jack Lively,The Social and Political
Thoughtof Alexis de Tocqueville(Oxford: Clarendon, 1962); Marvin Zetterbaum,
Tocquevilleand the Problemof Democracy(Stanford,1967); J. P. Mayer,Alexis de
Tocqueville:A BiographicalStudy in PoliticalScience (Gloucester,MA: PeterSmith,
1966);SeymourDrescher,Tocquevilleand England(Cambridge,MA: HarvardUniver-
sity Press, 1964); Edward Gargan, De Tocqueville(New York: HillaryHouse, 1965);
Harold Laski, "Alexis de Tocquevilleand Democracy,"in F.J,C. Hearnshaw,ed., The
Social and Political Ideas of Some RepresentativeThinkersof the VictorianAge
(London: GeorgeHarrap, 1933);GeorgesLefZbvre, "A Proposde Tocqueville,"Annales
historiquesde la rtvolutionfraneaise, XXVII (1955); R. PierreMarcel,Essaipolitiquesur
Alex de Tocqueville (Paris, 1910); and surprisingly, both Raymond Aron, Main
Currentsin Sociological Thought.I, Montesquieu,Comte,Marx, Tocquevilhe (Garden
City,NY: Doubleday, 1968),and Maxime Leroy,Histoiredes ideessocialesen France,
Tome 11,De Babeufa' Tocqueville(Paris: Gallimard,1950).
In anotherarticle,I havetriedto demonstrate
Tocquevillesdebtto Frenchthinkers of
his own generation("The Strange Liberalismof Alexis de Tocqueville," Historvof
Political 7hought,Winter1981).
II. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), Xl, Correspondanced'AlexisdeTorquevilleAvec P.-P.
Rorer-Collardet Avec J.-J.Ampere,p. 21; Oeuvres(M), XIII, pt. 1,Correspondance. ..
Kergorlay.p. 418.

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100 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

12. JeanBodin,MethodfortheEasy Comprehension of History(New York:Norton,

1969),p. 20; Blaise Pascal, Pensees,Brunschvicgedition(New York:Dutton,1958),p. 20.
This idea thatthepartrevealsthewholeis a vitalassumptioninGermanthoughtfrom
Leibnizto Hegelto Marx. ConsiderLeibniz:"Everysimplesubstancehasrelationswhich
expressall theothersand ... is consequentlya perpetuallivingmirrorof theuniverse";
"Monadology," in Discourse on Metaphysics,Correspondencewith A rnauld, and
Monadology(La Salle, IL: Open Court, 1968),p. 263.
13. Michel de Montaigne,Essays (Baltimore: Penguin, 1958), 1: 26; p. 62; Jean
FranqoisMarie Arouetde Voltaire,TheAge of Louis XIV(London: Everyman,1961),p.
256; Jean-JacquesRousseau, Emile (London: Everyman,1911), pp. 202-203; Arthur
Wilson,Diderot,2 vols. in I (New York: OxfordUniversity Press,1972),p. 671; Louis
Gabriel Ambroise,Vicomtede Bonald, Oeuvres completes,11, Economie sociale et
oeuvrespolitiques,p. 29.
14. Plutarch,LivesoftheNoble Greeks(NewYork:Dell, 1959),p. 268("Alexander").
15. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(B), VIl, NouvelleCorrespondance,p. 370.
16. Tocqueville, Memoir, Letters,11: 358; Tocqueville, Oeuvres(M), VI, pt. 1,
CorrespondanceAnglaise,p. 213.
17. Alexis de Tocqueville. 7he Old Regime and the French Revolution,trans.
S. Gilbert(GardenCity,NY: Doubleday, 1955),p. 83; see also Tocqueville,Journey s to
Englandand Ireland,trans.T. Lawrenceand K. P. Mayer(GardenCity,NY: Doubleday,
19.68),pp. 51-53.
18. Tocqueville,Democracy,1: 376-377.
19. Tocqueville,Journeyto America,pp. 45, 157.
20. Tocqueville,"Speech Pronouncedin the Chamberof Deputies."
21. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), V, pt. 2, Voyagesen Angleterre, Irlande,Suisse, et
Algerie,p. 192.
22. Cited by Richard Sayce, The Essays of Montaigne:A Critical Exploration
(London: Weidenfeld& Nicholson,1972),p. 237.
23. The late Yosal Rogat,a good friendand brilliantteacher,suggestedthisimageand
inspiredmuchof thisentireessay.
24. Sayce, The Essays of Montaigne,p. 237.
25. Jean-JacquesRousseau, Conside'rations sur le gouvernement de Polognein Col-
lectioncompl?tedes oeuvresde J. J. Rousseau (Geneve, 1782),p. 421.
26. Bonald,Oeuvrescompl&tes, II, Economiesociale et oeuvrespolitiques,pp. 1-113,
throughout.
27. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(.M),VI, pt. 1, CorrespondanceAnglaise,p. 99; Democracy,
I: 207.
28. Tocqueville,Democracy,I: books 1-3.
29. Ibid., pp. 245-247.
30. Alexisde Tocquevilleand Gustavede Beaumont,Tocquevilleand Beaumonton
Social Reform,ed. SeymourDrescher(New York: Harper& Row, 1968),p. 141.
31. Tocqueville,Democracv,I: 271; Journeyto America,p. 171.
32. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), 111,Ecritset discourspolitiques,p. 537 (L'Inde).
33. Tocqueville, The Old Regime,pp. 235-236,20.
34. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(B), VIl, NouvelleCorrespondance,p. 135.
35. Paul HenryThiry,Barond'Holbach, TheSystemofNature,or Laws oftheMoral
and Physical World(Boston: J. P. Mendum,1889),p. 31.

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 Boesche / TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 101

36. H. A. Hodges, The Philosophyof WilhelmDilthey(London: Routledge& Kegan

Paul, 1952), p. 165. In part,we include Diltheyin our discussionbecause he called
Tocqueville "the greatestanalyst of the political world since Aristotleand Machia-
velli";ibid.,p. 257.
37. WilhelmDilthey,The Essenceof Philosophy(New York: AMS, 1969),p. 63.
38. Hodges, The Philosophyof WilhelmDilihey,pp. 273-274.
39. Ibid., p. 134.
40. Bodin, MethodfortheEasy Comprehension of History,p. 22; Douglas Johnson,
Guizot: Aspectsof FrenchHistor., 1787-1874(Toronto: University of Toronto Press,
1963),p. 332.
41. Voltaire,The Age of Louis XIV, p. 1.
42. EmeryNeff,The PoetryofHistory(New York:ColumbiaUniversity Press,1947),
p. 132.
43. Alexis de Tocqueville, The European Revolutionand CorrespondenceWith
Gobineau,trans.J. Lukacs (Gloucester,MA: PeterSmith,1968),p. 89; Oeuvres(M), VI,
pt. 1, CorrespondanceAnglaise,p. 233.
44. Tocqueville,The European Revolution,p. 91.
45. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,11:324.
46. Tocqueville, The European Revolution,pp. 163-165.
47. Plutarch,LivesoftheNoble Greeks,p. 54 ("Lycurgus");Tacites,CompleteWorks
of Tacitus(New York: Modern Library,1942),p. 117; Annals' III: 27.
48. Montesquieu,TheSpiritof theLaws, 2vols. in I (New York:Hafner,1949),V, 19;
Vol. I, p. 69; Montesquieu,ThePersianLetters(NewYork:World,1961),LetterCXXIX,
p. 232; JeanJacquesRousseau, TheSocial Contractand Discourses(New York:Dutton,
1950),p. 53; Te Social Contract,Bk. II, Ch. 12;pp. 263-264,A Discourseon theOrigin
of Inequalityj.
49. Tocqueville,Democracv,1: 310.
50. Tocqueville,Journeyto America,p. 305.
51. Tocqueville, Oeuvres(M) V, p. 2, Voyagesen Angleterre,Irlande, Suisse, et
Algerie,p. 177.
52. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), VIIl, pt. 3, Correspondance.. . Beaumont,p. 543.
53. Emile Durkheim,Montesquieuand Rousseau: Forerunnersof Sociology (Ann
Arbor: University of MichiganPress, 1960),pp. 8-10.
54. Voltaire,The Age of Louis XIV, p. 32.
55. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(B), VIl, NouvelleCorrespondance,p. 260.
56. Hodges, The Philosophyof WilhelmDilthey,p. 164.
57. H. P. Rickman, Introductionto WilhelmDilthey,Patternand Meaning in
History:Thoughtson Historyand Society(New York: Harper,1962),p. 39; Hodges,The
Philosophj,of WilhelmDilthey,p. 118.
58. Isaiah Berlin, "A Note on Vico's Conception of Knowledge," in Giorgio
Tagliacozzo, ed., GiambattistaVico: An InternationalSymposium(Baltimore:Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1969),p. 373.
59. ErnstCassirer, ThePhilosophyof the Enlightenment (Boston: Beacon, 1955),
p. 215.
60. Robert T. Clark, Jr., Herder: His Life and Thought(Berkeley:University of
CaliforniaPress, 1955),pp. 54, 84.
61. RobertFlint,Historyof thePhilosophyof History(London: Blackwood& Sons,
1893),p. 493; GordonWrightinan Introduction to JulesMichelet,HistoryoftheFrench

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102 POLITICAL THEORY / FEBRUARY 1983

Revolution(Chicago: Universityof Chicago Press, 1967), p. x; Dilthey,Patternand

Meaningin History,p. 73.
62. Tocqueville,The Old Regime,p. 5; Oeuvres(M), VIII, pt. 1,Correspondance...
Beaumont,p. 175; Oeuvres(M), VI, pt. 1, CorrespondanceAnglaise.p. 138.
63. Tocqueville, The Old Regime,p. ix.
64. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), VIII, p. 3, Correspondance... Beaumont,p. 496.
65. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,1: 360.
66. Ibid., I1: 323.
67. Tocqueville uses factsand statisticsto marvelousadvantagein arguingforthe
abolitionofslaveryand fora reform ofprisons.See Tocquevilleand Beaumont,On Social
Reform,pp. 118-136,155-173,70-89; also Alexis de Toqueville (sic) and Gustavede
Beaumont,On thePenitentiary Systemin the UnitedStatesand ItsApplicationinFrance
(New York: A. M. Kelley,1970),pp. 75-85,throughout.
68. Bodin, MethodfortheEasy Comprehension of History,p. 12; Montesquieu,The
Spiritof the Laws, Preface,p. lxix.
69. Honore de Balzac, A Harlot High and Low (Baltimore:Penguin,1970),p. 487;
HarryLevin, The Gates of Horn: A Studyof Five FrenchRealists(New York: Oxford
University Press, 1963),p. 128.
70. VictorHugo, Les Miserables,2 vols. in 1 (New York:A. L. Burt,n.d.), II: 263; G.
P. Gooch, Historyand Historiansin the NineteenthCentury(New York: Longmans,
1920),p. 228.
71. Gooch, Historyand Historiansin the NineteenthCentury,p. 239.
72. In Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,1: 49.
73. Ibid., 11:215.
74. Tocqueville, The European Revolution,p. 31; Memoir,Letters,Il: 349.
75. Tocquevilleand Beaumont,On Social Reform,pp. 6-7.
76. Tocqueville, The European Revolution,pp. 40, 58.
77. lbid., p. 48.
78. Ibid., p. 58.
79. Abbe Bossuet, Extraitsdes oeuvresdiverses(Paris: LibrairieCh. Delagrave,
1899),p. 115 (fromDiscourssur l'histoireuniverselle);MeffireFrancoisSalignac de la
Mothe Fenelon, The Adventuresof Telemachus,3rd ed. (Dublin, 1777),p. 25.
80. N. A. Boulanger,Oeuvres(Geneve:SkatkineReprints,1971),III: 104-105(from
Recherchessur l'originedu despotisme).
81. Durkheim,Montesquieuand Rousseau, p. 52; JamesBryce,The Predictionsof
Hamiltonand de Tocqueville,selectionsreprintedin WilliamEbenstein,ed., Political
7houghtin Perspective(New York: McGraw-Hill,1957),pp. 466-467.
82. Claude Arian Helvetius,De L'Esprit,or, Essays on the Mind and Its Several
Faculties(London: Albion, 1810,reprint),p. 154.
83. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(B), VII, NouvelleCorrespondance,p. 263.
84. Baron de Montesquieu,Considerationson the Causes of the Greatnessof the
Romans and TheirDecline (Ithaca, NY: CornellUniversity Press, 1968),pp. 94-95,169.
85. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,1: 294-299.
86. Ibid., II: 252.
87. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), VIII, pt. 1, Correspondance... Beaumont,p. 311.
88. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,11,272.Durkheimmakesaverysimilarclaim:"The
presentprefigures thefuture.... The futureis alreadywrittenforthosewho knowhowto

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 Boesche / TOCQUEVILLE'S PREDICTIONS 103

read." StevenLukes,EmileDurkheim,His Lifeand Work:A CriticalStudy(Harmonds-

worth:Penguin,1975),p. 503.
89. Bodin and Montesquieuare well knownforarguingthatmoresor customsare
responsesto the needsof a climate.Too often,however,modernreaderstake thisword
"climate"in an undulynarrowsense-whethera nationis hotor cold, wetor dry,etc. In
fact,Bodin,and Tacitus,fromwhom Bodin receivedtheidea, bestowsa muchbroader
senseon theword"climate."Whilein Germanyand Its Tribes,Tacitusdoes arguethatthe
German characterarose fromthe cold climate,this happened only because the cold
climatenecessitated a frugaleconomy,whichin turnnecessitated therigorousasceticism,
politicaldiscipline,and fiercemilitarismthatcharacterized thetribesofGermany.Thus,
for Tacitus, and later for Bodin and Montesquieu,the needs of climateencompass
geography,food resources,the resultingeconomy, and much more. Tacitus, The
CompleteWorks,pp. 710-712(fromGermanyand Its Tribes);Bodin,MethodfortheEasy
Comprehensionof history,pp. 143-146;Montesquieu,The Spiritof the Laws, XX, 5;
Vol. 1, p. 319.
90. Montesquieu, The SpiritoftheLaws,XIV, 10;Vol. 1,p. 229.
91. Ibid., XX, 5; Vol. 1, p. 319. Consideralso the claim by Durkheim:"The most
barbarousand the most fantasticritesand the strongestmythstranslatesome human
need." Emile Durkheim,The ElementaryFormsof the ReligiousLife(New York: Free
Press, 1965),p. 14.
92. Tocqueville, Journeyto America,p. 170;Democracy, II: 254. (In the latter
passage,as wellas a fewsubsequentpassages,I havetranslated theFrenchwordbesoinas
"need," insteadof "want.")
93. Tocqueville,Democracy,II: 245.
94. Ibid., p. 247.
95. Ibid., p. 248.
96. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,1: 218 (from"France Beforethe Revolution").
97. Tocqueville,Oeuvres(M), III, Ecritset discourspolitiques,p. 447 (L'Inde).
98. Tocqueville,Memoir,Letters,1: 222 (from"France Beforethe Revolution").

RogerBoesche,whois an AssociateProfessor
ofPoliticalScienceat Occidental
College,receivedhis Ph.D.fromStanfordin 1976.He has publishedseveral
articles
onthepoliticalthought
ofAlexis
de Tocqueville
injournalssuchas History
of PoliticalThoughtand theJournalof the Historyof Ideas, and he isfinishing
a
bookon thesamesubject.

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