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  • 22 Feb Logistica

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    Daniel Alvarado
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    This document summarizes the results of a regression analysis and time series forecasting on demand data. The regression analysis finds a moderate positive correlation between demand and time. Forecasting predicts demand for the next 4 periods based on a seasonal decomposition model. Accuracy is evaluated through absolute error and percentage error between predicted and actual demand.

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    Ejercicios de logistica

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    This document summarizes the results of a regression analysis and time series forecasting on demand data. The regression analysis finds a moderate positive correlation between demand and time. Forecasting predicts demand for the next 4 periods based on a seasonal decomposition model. Accuracy is evaluated through absolute error and percentage error between predicted and actual demand.

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    5 views6 pages

    22 Feb Logistica

    Uploaded by

    Daniel Alvarado
    This document summarizes the results of a regression analysis and time series forecasting on demand data. The regression analysis finds a moderate positive correlation between demand and time. Forecasting predicts demand for the next 4 periods based on a seasonal decomposition model. Accuracy is evaluated through absolute error and percentage error between predicted and actual demand.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 6

    Resumen

    Estadísticas de la regresión
    Coeficiente de correl 0.4497590754
    Coeficiente de deter 0.2022832259
    R^2 ajustado 0.1025686292
    Error típico 1328.5722286224
    Observaciones 10

    ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
    Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
    Promedio de los cuadrados F
    Regresión 1 3580729.16666667 3580729.16666667 2.0286220124
    Residuos 8 14120833.3333333 1765104.16666667
    Total 9 17701562.5

    Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad


    Intercepción 20200 1174.7299818695 17.1954409198 1.33095494406E-07
    Variable X 1 208.3333333333 146.2709883066 1.4242970239 0.1921767609
    Valor crítico de F
    0.1921767609

    Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%


    17491.0678040607 22908.9321959393 17491.0678040607 22908.9321959393
    -128.9681705622 545.6348372289 -128.9681705622 545.6348372289
    Periodicidad 4
    periodos 3

    Periodo Demanda periodos demanda


    Año Trimestre t di t di
    1 2 1 8000 1 8000
    1 3 2 13000 2 13000
    1 4 3 23000 3 23000
    2 1 4 34000 4 34000
    2 2 5 10000 5 10000
    2 3 6 18000 6 18000
    2 4 7 23000 7 23000
    3 1 8 38000 8 38000
    3 2 9 12000 9 12000
    3 3 10 13000 10 13000
    3 4 11 32000 11 32000
    4 1 12 41000 12 41000

    Factor estacional
    T 20200 S1 0.47
    L 208 S2 0.68
    S3 1.20
    Dt 20408 S4 1.72
    demanda desestacionalizada periodos demanda demanda desestacionalizada
    dt t di dt Factor
    estacional
    1 8000 20408 0.39
    2 13000 20617 0.63
    19750 3 23000 20825 1.10
    20625 4 34000 21033 1.62
    21250 5 10000 21242 0.47
    21750 6 18000 21450 0.84
    22500 7 23000 21658 1.06
    22125 8 38000 21867 1.74
    22625 9 12000 22075 0.54
    24125 10 13000 22283 0.58
    23000 11 32000 22492 1.42
    19875 12 41000 22700 1.81

    Pronostico
    F13 10739
    F14 15820
    F15 27906
    F16 40481

    F17 11130
    F18 16391
    F19 28903
    F20 41914
    error
    nivel pronostico error
    periodo demanda di et
    lt f absoluto
    pronostio demanda
    1 8000
    2 13000
    3 23000
    4 34000 19500
    5 10000 20000 19500 9500 9500
    6 18000 21250 20000 2000 2000
    7 23000 21250 21250 -1750 1750
    8 38000 22250 21250 -16750 16750
    9 12000 22750 22250 10250 10250
    10 13000 21500 22750 9750 9750
    11 32000 23750 21500 -10500 10500
    12 41000 24500 23750 -17250 17250

    F13 24500 F14 24500 F15 24500

    desviación 12148
    pronostico
    L12 24500
    error mad error ts
    cuadratico mapet
    t % t
    mset

    90250000 9500 95 95 1.00


    47125000 5750 11 53 2.00
    32437500 4417 8 38 2.21
    94468750 7500 44 39 -0.93
    96587500 8050 85 49 0.40
    96333333 8333 75 53 1.56
    98321429 8643 33 50 0.29
    123226563 9719 42 49 -1.52

    F16 24500

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