Traditional Decline Curve Analysis http://www.petrocenter.com/reservoir/DCA_theory.

htm

Traditional Decline Curve Analysis

Exponential, harmonic or hyperbolic decline?

The days of plotting rates on semi-log graph paper are long gone. In the industry, commercial software programs are used
with extensive database capabilities to quickly develop forecasts. In general, the exponential decline is the most
commonly used method. Perhaps in the beginning, it was as matter of convenience. Today, with everyone using software
generated decline curves, all methods are equally convenient.

The graph below shows all three decline equations fit nearly exactly to the first 2 years, and produce noticeably different
forecasts. If all three decline equations match the historical data, then the exponential decline forecast will show the most
decline in rates, hence provide the most conservative forecast.

Conservative forecasts are probably most appropriate in the early stages of production where there are more
unquantifiable factors that tend to reduce the field rate rather than increase them in the future. This includes down time
related to facility and well maintenance. Secondly, if the decline curve analysis is to be used for reserves calculations, the
forecast needs reflect a "reasonable certainty" standard.

The hyperbolic curve requires estimation of both Di and the exponent "b." Hyperbolic decline curves have been used in
many cases, particularly in the late history of pressure supported production.

Finally, the cumulative recovery should result in a reasonable recovery factor, based on volumetrics. Very good
suggestions on reconciliation of estimates (simulation, material balance, and decline curve analyses) are provided in
reference 2, page V-1531.

Most computer programs allow multiple forecasts to be made, and sensitivity analysis on the computed variables. If the
objective of the forecast is an upside projection, useful in facility design, then harmonic and hyperbolic methods may be
employed.

Also, note that the rate, BOPD, can be MSCF gas. In fields under pump and producing high volumes of water, then a
linear relationship between log of water cut and Np would reflect harmonic decline. Linear relationship between water cut
and Np would suggest a exponential decline.

Notation:

qi = Initial rate, q(t) = rate at time t, Q(t) = Cumulative Production, Di = decline rate, b = used in hyperbolic decline, b = 1
for harmonic. Keep units consistent. Decline rate is not annual decline, but used as a parameter in the equation.

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Exponential:

The plots on the left side are based on a

common 15 year rate for all three methods.
(Ref 1, page 215)

DCA is applicable when the plot of rate vs.

log(time) has a constant slope, Di. Plot of
rate vs. cum oil, also has a straight line.

The exponential model is:

Note that when Di is

obtained from a
semi-log plot, it
must be divided by
2.3 to convert to
natural log scale.

Harmonic:

Harmonic decline is a special case of the

hyperbolic curve for b = 1. The slope of
ln(q) vs cumulative production plot is equal
to or on log base 10, the slope is:

Hyperbolic:

Hyperbolic decline uses two parameters, Di

and b.

Additional calculations with Exponential

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References:

1. Lee, J. and Wattenbarger, R.A.,Gas Reservoir Engineering, pages 215- 219.

2. Harrell, R. and Cronquist, C, Estimation of Primary Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gas Condensate,
Petroleum Engineering Handbook, 2007, V-1529- V-1531.

3. Bradley, H., Estimation of Oil and Gas Reserves, Petroleum Engineering Handbook (H. Bradley, Ed), 1987.

4. Cronquist, C, Estimation and Classification of Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Condensate, 2001.

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