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Data Analysis & Interpretations
Data Analysis & Interpretations
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the
economy grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and
vice versa. When the level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when
the level of economic activity is high, stock prices are high reflecting the prosperous
outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of macroeconomic
environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock prices.
2. INTEREST RATES
3. INFLATION RATES
4. EXCHANGE RATES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
The Gross Domestic Product growth rate measures the increase in value of
the goods and services produced by an economy. Economic growth is usually
calculated in real terms or inflation-adjusted terms, in order to net out the effect of
changes on the price of the goods and services produced. The Gross Domestic Product
can be determined using three different approaches, which should give the same
result. These different methods are the product technique, the income technique, and
the expenditure technique. In sum, the product technique sums the outputs of every
class of enterprise to arrive at the total. The expenditure technique works on the
principle that every product must be bought by somebody, therefore the value of the
total product must be equal to people's total expenditures in buying products and
services. The income technique works on the principle that the incomes of the
productive factors must be equal to the value of their product, and determines GDP by
finding the sum of all producers' incomes. The real GDP per capita of an economy is
often used as an indicator of the average standard of living of individuals in that
country, and economic growth is therefore often seen as indicating an increase in the
average standard of living.
Interest rates will have an effect on stocks. If interest rates decrease then
borrowing capacity of a company increases so company can go for further expansion
and generates more profits. So demand for stock increases and stock price will rise. In
AMBUJA, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of AMBUJA's
Central Board of Directors. The official interest rate is the benchmark repurchase rate.
The benchmark interest rate in AMBUJA was last reported at 7.75 percent.
Historically, from 2000 until 2017, AMBUJA Interest Rate averaged 6.55 Percent
reaching an all time high of 14.50 Percent in August of 2000 and a record low of 4.25
Percent in April of 14. In AMBUJA, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve
Bank of AMBUJA's Central Board of Directors. The official interest rate is the
benchmark repurchase rate.
INFLATION RATES
Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of
purchasing power. Inflation rates will also an effect on stock. If inflation rates
decreases then company can purchase items at lower rates so that it can increase
profits and finally the stock price raises. The inflation rate in AMBUJA was recorded
at 7.18 percent in December of 2018. Historically, from 1969 until 2018, AMBUJA
Inflation Rate averaged 7.75 Percent reaching an all time high of 34.68 Percent in
September of 1974 and a record low of -17.31 Percent in May of 1976.
In AMBUJA, the wholesale price index (WPI) is the main measure of inflation. The WPI
measures the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods. In AMBUJA, wholesale
price index is divided into three groups: Primary Articles (20.1 percent of total weight), Fuel
and Power (14.9 percent) and Manufactured Products (65 percent). Food Articles from the
Primary Articles Group account for 14.3 percent of the total weight. The most important
components of the Manufactured Products Group are Chemicals and Chemical products (18
percent of the total weight); Basic Metals, Alloys and Metal Products (16.8 percent);
Machinery and Machine Tools (8.9 percent); Textiles (7.3 percent) and Transport, Equipment
and Parts (5.2 percent).
EXCHANGE RATES
Exchange rates will also have an impact on stock. If exchange rates decrease then company
can import at lower rates which leads to increase in profits and causes an increase in profits.
The USDINR spot exchange rate specifies how much one currency, the USD, is currently
worth in terms of the other, the INR. While the USDINR spot exchange rate is quoted and
exchanged in the same day, the USDINR forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and
payment on a specific future date. The USDINR spot exchange rate specifies how much
one currency, the USD, is currently worth in terms of the other, the INR. While the
USDINR spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged in the same day, the USDINR
forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.
The USDINR spot exchange rate depreciated 1.7818 or 3.24 percent during the last 30
days. Historically, from 1973 until 2017, the USDINR averaged 31.38 reaching an all time
high of 57.1800 in June of 2018 and a record low of 7.19 in March of 1973.
CEMENT INDUSTRY
AMBUJA, being the second largest cement producer in the world after China with
a total capacity of 234.30 Million Tons (MT), has got a huge cement industry.
With the government of AMBUJA giving boost to various infrastructure projects,
housing facilities and road networks, the cement industry in AMBUJA is currently
growing at an enviable pace. More growth in the AMBUJAn cement industry is
expected in the coming years. It is also predicted that the cement production in
AMBUJA would rise to 317-320 million tonnes in FY18. . CMA is targeting to
achieve 550 million tonnes capacity by 2020. The cement industry in AMBUJA
is dominated by around 45 companies, which account for almost 70% of the total
cement production in AMBUJA
Domestic demand plays a major role in the fast growth of cement industry in
AMBUJA. In fact the domestic demand of cement has surpassed the economic
growth rate of AMBUJA. In cement consumption, the state of Uttar Pradesh leads
the table with 18.18% consumption, followed by Maharashtra. In terms of cement
production, Rajasthan leads the list with 18.37% of production, while Andhra
Pradesh remains at second position with 18.31 % of production.
The cement companies are also increasing their productions due to the high
market demand. The cement companies have seen a net profit growth rate of 85%.
With this huge success, the cement industry in AMBUJA has contributed almost
8.1% to AMBUJA's economic development.
Technology Up-gradation
Cement industry in AMBUJA is currently going through a technological change
as a lot of up gradation and assimilation is taking place. Currently, almost 93% of
the total capacity is based entirely on the modern dry process, which is considered
as more environment-friendly. Only the rest 7% uses old wet and semi-dry
process technology. There is also a huge scope of waste heat recovery in the
cement plants, which lead to reduction in the emission level and hence improves
the environment.
Cement Dispatches
Investments and mergers will also have effect on stock price. If the companies
increase the investments then they can generate more profits and lead to increase
in stock price. As companies are investing it is a good sign for a stock.
Sector structure/Market size
Our country is the second major cement producing country following the China;
we have 177 large and 365 mini cement plants. Leading players in the industry are
Ultratech Cement, Gujarat Ambuja Cement Limited , JK Cements, ACC Cement,
Madras Cements etc. Cement is an adhesive that holds the concrete together and is
therefore vital for meeting economy’s needs of Housing & accommodation and
necessary infrastructure such as roads & bridges, schools, hospitals etc. Hence, the
cement is one of the fundamental elements for setting up strong and healthy
infrastructure of the country and plays an important role in economic development
and welfare of the nation.
A large number of overseas players are also expected to enter the industry in the
coming years as 160 per cent FDI is permitted in the cement industry. Our country
is the second major cement producing country following the China having a total
capacity of around 230 MT (including mini plants). However, on account of low
per capita consumption of cement in the country (176 kgs/year as compared to
world average of 260 kgs) there is an enormous potential for growth of the
industry.
Government Initiatives
With a goal of speed up and sustaining growth in the cement industry the
government has taken a range of steps in the Union budget 2017-18. The
infrastructure sector has received an momentum in the form of improved funds
and tax related incentives offered to magnetize investors for tapping the
infrastructure opportunities across the country. Introduction of tax free bonds,
formation of infrastructure debt funds and formulating a comprehensive policy for
developing public private partnership projects (PPPs) are some of the steps that
will provide required stimulus for growth of the cement industry in AMBUJA.
The cement industry is pushing for increased use of cement in highway and road
construction. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has planned to invest
US$ 354 billion in road infrastructure by 2018. Housing, infrastructure projects
and the nascent trend of concrete roads would continue to accelerate the
consumption of cement. Increased infrastructure spending has been a key focus
area. In the Union Budget 2016-17, US$ 37.4 billion has been provided for
infrastructure development.
The government has also increased budgetary allocation for roads by 17 per cent
to US$ 4.3 billion. Gujarat plans to treble its cement production capacity in 3-5
years. Proposals have been invited from cement companies such as ACC, ABG,
Ambuja Cement, Emami, AMBUJAbulls, Adani group, Ultratech and L&T and
the state hopes to raise its capacity from 20 million tonnes per annum to 70
million tonne. The state will host the biennial Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit in
January 2017 and expects to witness investment proposals worth US$ 17.2 billion
in the cement sector.
Road Ahead
In AMBUJA there are around 365 small and 140 large cement plants, combined
production capacity of which is approximately 234 Million Tones (MT). Keeping
the tune with the global standard, the AMBUJAn cement industry has transited
itself into more advanced one. At present, the AMBUJAn cement industry is
positioned on the second rank. Due to the general economic slowdown, financial
institutions tightened their credit norms. This led to a credit crunch and impacted
upcoming real estate, infrastructure and other projects. With that, demand for
cement moderated. However, stimulus packages and agricultural income,
government spending on the infrastructure, rural demand will give a impetus to
the demand for the commodity. The cement industry is likely to maintain its
growth momentum and continue growing at around 8% to 9% in the medium to
long term in line with the development of the economy (GDP). Government
initiatives in the infrastructure sector and the housing sector are likely to be the
main growth drivers. During FY2017, all-AMBUJA demand grew by moderate
4.7% Y-o-Y, the lowest in the past several years. Demand in the southern region
was worst affected, reporting a decline of 3.4% Y-o-Y. Demand scenario has
worsened further in 1HFY2018 with all-AMBUJA demand growth slumped to 3%
Y-o-Y. In the western region, demand remained healthy and grew by 17.2% Y-o-
Y. Demand grew by 7.2% and 5.2% in the northern and central regions,
respectively, while it was flat in the eastern region. However, in the southern
region, demand continued to slide down and declined by 4.1% Y-o-Y. The main
drivers of cement demand are development of infrastructure like, Power Houses,
Roads, Ports, Airports. Lower profitability is expected to result in pressure on
cash flows from operations, and any large capex will result in negative free cash
flows. Consequently, those companies which are in the midst of ongoing capex
programmes are likely to be the most impacted, as higher debt levels along with
muted earnings will put pressure on key credit metrics. However, the credit
metrics of the larger players, ACC Limited ('AAA(ind)'/Stable) and Ambuja
Cements Limited (Ambuja, 'AAA(ind)'/Stable) are likely to remain stable, on
account of their strong financial profiles.
SWOT Analysis
The cement industry has many strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats. To
plan marketing and management strategies for business, it is important to perform
a situations analysis. One such analysis, a SWOT analysis, examines "strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and threats" within a particular business or field. The
cement industry is an example of a field for which a SWOT analysis would
enhance marketing and management strategies.
Strengths
The cement industry has much strength to be considered. Cement is, literally, the
building block of the construction industry. Almost every building constructed
relies on cement for its foundation. The cement business is a $16 billion industry,
measured by annual cement shipments. There is also a strong reputation behind
the cement industry. Cement is a solid material and consumers rarely have
complaints about the product. Regional distribution plants have also made cement
widely available to any type of buyer.
Weaknesses
The cement industry is not without its drawbacks. The cement industry relies on
construction jobs to create a profit. But the cement industry heavily relies on
weather. About two-thirds of cement production takes place between May and
October. Cement producers often use the winter months to produce and stockpile
cement, to meet demand. Another weakness is the cost of transport; the cost of
transporting cement is high and this keeps cement from being profitable over long
distances. In other words, shipping cement costs more than the profit from selling
it.
Opportunities
The cement industries have opportunities as well. One such opportunity is the
cement industry's efficiency. The cement industry has recently streamlined its
production efforts, using dry manufacturing instead of wet, which is heavier and
more time-consuming. The cement industry has also invested about $6 billion in
expansion efforts to meet unmet cement needs. Projections show that by 2018, the
cement industry will have 25 percent more production capabilities.
Threats
The nature of the economy has uncovered a number of threats to the cement
industry. The cement industry greatly relies on construction. The current economy
has lessened the number of construction jobs, which in turn hurts the cement
industry. The cement industry controls the majority of the United States market,
but not all of it. About 17.5 metric tons of cement is imported annually to support
the unmet need. If other countries can produce and ship cement for a reduced
price, the U.S. cement industry is in danger. The U.S. government is also
attempting to regulate the cement industry's waste. The Environmental Protection
Agency has introduced regulations for the cement industry to cut down emissions.
Pest Analysis
POLITICAL
The price of cement is primarily controlled by the coal rates, power tariffs,
railway
tariffs, freight, royalty and cess on limestone. Interestingly, government controls
all of these prices. Government is also one of the biggest consumers of the cement
in the country. Most state governments, in order to attract investments in their
respective states, offer fiscal incentives in the form of sales tax
exemptions/deferrals. States like Haryana offer a freeze on power tariff for 5
years, while Gujarat offers exemption from electric duty.
ECONOMIC
Currently, the industry is on the boom, with a lot of government infrastructure and
housing projects under construction. In spite of seeing a fall during 2014-15, the
export segment of the industry is expected to grow again on account of various
infrastructure projects that are being taken up all over the world and numerous
outstanding cement plants coming up in near future in the country
SOCIAL
Usually, the cement industry in AMBUJA consists of both the organized sector
and the unorganized sector. Organized sector comprises of the well-known cement
manufacturing companies while the main players of the unorganized sector are the
regional and local cement-producing units in various states across the state.
AMBUJAn consumers prefer buying branded cement like Ultra tech, Japee
cement, Lafarge cement etc. It has been seen in the past, as well, that mini cement
plants with low brand value and image are not able to survive against the cement
giants. With a population of more than 160 billion people, it is expected that
cement industry will create another 25 lakhs jobs in the next 4-5 years.
TECHNOLOGY
From mining to production the entire process depends on technology. The
Government of AMBUJA plans to study and possibly acquire new technologies
from the cement industry of Japan. The government is discussing technology
transfer in the field of energy conservation and environment protection to help
improve efficiency of the AMBUJAn cement industry. Cement industry has made
tremendous strides in technological up-gradation and assimilation of latest
technology. At present 93% of the total capacity in the industry is based on
modern and environment-friendly dry process technology.
COMPANY ANALYSIS
The company analysis shows the long-term strength of the company that what is
the financial position of the company in the market, where it stands among its
competitors and what are the key drivers of the company, what are the future
plans of the company, what are the policies of government towards the company
and how the stake of the company divested among different groups of people.
The study has been conducted on a sample of three companies namely AMBUJA
Cements, Madras Cements and UltraTech Cements for the purpose of
fundamental analysis.
AMBUJA Cements
The company also offers blended cements for marine structures, mass concrete
pours in dams, and plastering and finishing works under the Coromandel Super
Power, Sankar Super Power, and Raasi Super Power names. It also offers sulphate
resisting Portland cement under the Sankar SRC for foundations and piles;
basements and underground structures; sewage and water treatment plants;
chemical, fertilizers, and sugar factories; food processing industries and
petrochemical projects; coastal works; and construction of building along the
coastal area.
In addition, it offers ready mix concrete for large construction projects, such as
dams, bridges, industrial structures, and small and medium projects.
The company was formerly known as UltraTech CemCo Limited and changed its
name to UltraTech Cement Limited in October 2004. The company was
incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, AMBUJA. UltraTech Cement
Limited is a subsidiary of Grasim Industries Limited.
AMBUJA CEMENT- Balance Sheet (Rs. in Crores)
Particulars Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Share Capital 307.18 307.18 307.17 282.43 281.87
Reserves Total 3,639.56 3,684.43 3,738.07 3,251.78 2,951.39
Total Shareholders Funds 3,946.74 3,991.61 4,045.24 3,534.21 3,233.26
Minority Interest 17.54 0.01 1.53 3.18 0.00
Secured Loans 2,218.01 1,447.29 1,026.18 1,037.00 971.02
Unsecured Loans 818.62 1,288.52 1,274.46 951.78 840.51
Total Debt 3,034.63 2,735.81 2,300.62 1,988.78 1,817.53
Total Liabilities 6,994.91 6,727.43 6,347.39 5,526.17 5,044.79
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Gross Block 7,651.29 6,482.77 5,739.96 5,335.99 4,723.07
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2,444.55 2,169.77 1,801.14 1,518.14 1,246.02
Less: Impairment of Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Block 5,206.74 4,373.00 3,938.82 3,823.91 3,477.05
Lease Adjustment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Capital Work in Progress 170.41 440.53 1,429.06 904.05 575.52
Investments 422.37 337.17 514.79 355.60 332.99
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 562.66 532.51 470.63 393.54 351.85
Sundry Debtors 247.28 263.32 268.42 369.41 319.87
Cash and Bank 18.18 50.89 76.83 87.98 426.25
Loans and Advances 487.23 353.68 1,078.85 1,003.43 746.17
Total Current Assets 1,315.33 1,200.40 1,894.73 1,854.36 1,844.16
Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions
Current Liabilities 1,034.46 917.25 1,050.32 1,146.19 919.19
Provisions 71.88 76.01 169.91 85.37 65.89
Total Current Liabilities 1,166.34 989.26 1,180.23 1,171.56 985.14
Net Current Assets 202.99 217.14 734.50 682.80 859.02
Miscellaneous Expenses not written off 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.76 26.00
Deferred Tax Assets 26.97 18.17 20.64 18.45 0.00
Deferred Tax Liability 358.17 292.57 290.33 274.38 225.71
Net Deferred Tax -331.14 -274.42 -269.69 -255.93 -225.71
Total Assets 5,671.37 5,147.42 6,347.48 5,526.19 5,044.87
Contingent Liabilities 1,077.35 836.91 825.35 390.17 351.48
AMBUJA- Profit & Loss (Rs. in Crores)
SALES
SALES
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-14 Mar-14
AMBUJA Cements 5,200.82 4,162.86 4,178.71 3,914.59 3,555.71
Madras Cements 3,687.00 2,968.77 3,165.72 2,814.01 2,341.38
Ultratech Cements 21,502.41 17,446.79 7,854.58 7,340.98 6,400.40
100%
90%
80%
70%
Ultratech Cements
60%
Madras Cements
50%
AMBUJA Cements
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Interpretations
As usual, Ultra tech Cement has shown a very good increase in sales in the last
one year, while Madras Cements and AMBUJAhave also shown a reasonable
increase in sales. The overall sales of the three companies have increased. This
shows that despite the slowdown in the economy, demand for cement has
remained strong and the variation in sales can be attributed to company specific
factors.
DEBT- EQUITY RATIO
DEBT – EQUITY RATIO
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-14 Mar-14
AMBUJA Cements 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0
Madras Cements 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.4
Ultratech Cements 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Interpretations
Debt Equity ratios of all the three companies have remained more or less
consistent in the last five years. Madras Cements has the highest Debt-Equity
Ratio of 1.5 times followed by AMBUJAwith 0.7 times and Ultratech Cements
with 0.4 times.
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2 AMBUJA Cements
1 Madras Cements
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
EARNINGS PER SHARE
Interpretations
EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share, that is, the
amount that they can get on every share held. The EPS of all the three companies
has increased drastically in 2018 when compared to 2017. Ultratech Cements has
reported an EPS of Rs.88 per share while Madras Cements has reported Rs.17.8
and AMBUJARs.9.2
450
400
350
300
Ultratech Cements
250
Madras Cements
200
AMBUJA Cements
150
100
50
0
P/E Ratio
Interpretations
Ultratech Cements has the highest P/E Ratio of 17.1 while Madras Cements has
the lowest P/E Ratio of 9.7 times. AMBUJAhas an average P/E Ratio of 18.1
times.
50
45
40
35
AMBUJA Cements
30
Madras Cements
25
Ultratech Cements
20
15
10
5
0
RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Interpretations
ROCE is one of the most important ratios used for measuring the overall
efficiency of a firm and determines whether the investments in the firms are
attractive or not. UltraTech Cement has the maximum ROCE of 22.6 % while
AMBUJAhas the least ROI of 16.50 %. Madras Cements has an ROCE of 14.4%.
All the three companies have shown a good increase in ROCE compared to the
previous year.
100
90
80
70
Ultratech Cements
60
Madras Cements
50
AMBUJA Cements
40
30
20
10
0
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-14 Mar-14
AMBUJA Cements 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.1
Madras Cements 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.8 1.2
Ultratech Cements 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6
Interpretations
Chart Title
6
4
Ultratech Cements
3 Madras Cements
2 AMBUJA Cements
0
PRICE TO BOOK VALUE
Interpretations
AMBUJAhas the least Price to Book Value ratio of 1.0 while Ultratech Cements
has the highest Price to Book Value ratio of 3.2. Madras Cements has a Price to
Book Value of 3.2.
10
9
8
7
Ultratech Cements
6
Madras Cements
5
AMBUJA Cements
4
3
2
1
0
CHAPTER VI
From the data analysis of three companies’ viz. AMBUJA Cements, Madras
Cements and Ultra tech Cements, following findings have been given:
Overall growth rate of the country is also positive and investors can go
ahead with the investments in stocks.
Interest Rates and Inflation rates are under control which indicates better
savings and investments for investors.
All the companies have recorded a good increase in sales and profits and
seem to be a good bet for investment.
Ultra tech Cements with the maximum Return on Capital Employed is
recommended for buy in the long run.
Madras Cements follows Ultra tech Cements in terms of ROCE and
Dividend per Share and it can also be recommended for a buy.
AMBUJA is actively engaged in Mergers and Acquisitions and has a very
high debt which is bringing down its numbers. The company also has a
very good growth potential when all its units consolidate.
CONCLUSION
There are three factors which an investor must consider for selecting the right
stocks.
Business: An investor must look into what kind of business the company
is doing, visibility of the business, its past track record, capital needs of the
Balance Sheet: The investor must focus on its key financial ratios such as
share etc and he must also check whether the company is generating cash
flows.
Bargaining: This is the most important factor which shows the true worth
Investment rules
Align your thought process with the business cycle of the company.
Text Books
Newspapers
Economic times
Business line
Websites
www.nseAMBUJA.com
www.bseAMBUJA.com
www.investopedia.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.angelbroking.com
www.sebi.gov.in