Driving forces of future energy demand/supply

What are the driving forces that influence our present energy supply and may even grow in
importance in the years to come? Three main drivers can be identified.

Most prominently in the last 20 years mankind has learned a lot about the relationship between
fossil fuel combustion and its role in heating the Earth’s atmosphere. Basic physics teaches us the
more we pollute the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, the more we change the radiation balance.
This results in heating the Earth’s surface temperature with the consequence of increased
evaporation and rainfall. An increase of water vapour in the air is almost identical to more energy in
the air and consequently must result in stronger rainfalls and storms. These effects today are beyond
any doubt. The remaining uncertainties are: To what amount can competing effects dampen the rise
in temperature and how large is the range of the natural variability of our climate? How much does
the temperature still need to rise until we are convinced that the observed rise is related to
anthropogenic influence?

Figure 1 sketches the dilemma: economic principles imply that gross domestic product needs to grow
each year in order to maintain the living standard of the population. All efforts are directed towards
this growth. The main advice to developing countries is to accelerate their economic growth. But
economic growth is almost completely linked to the growth of material products based on rising
consumption of raw materials and fossil energy. All this happens in spite of the indisputable but
ignored fact that unrestricted growth of limited resources is simply not sustainable.

Figure 1: The basic dilemma – Business as usual or climate policy; growing fossil
energy consumption is tantamount to growing air pollution and reinforced
greenhouse effect.

The best way to illustrate this basic dilemma is to consider climate change. Figure 1 shows the history
of world energy consumption, which is directly related to the level of greenhouse gas emissions. The
projected alternative trends exhibit schizophrenia. On the one hand it is believed that a growing
consumption of fossil fuels is needed to keep the economies running and to increase welfare; on the
other hand it is known that only a strong reduction of fossil fuel use will save our planet.
Another potent driver influencing the energy future is the natural endowment of the Earth with fossil
energy resources. Oil is the first resource whose availability is beginning to decline. Within a few
years it will be followed by the decline of natural gas production and after that by the geological
restrictions of uranium and coal supply. The question is not whether we like this or not – depletion
will occur even if one tries to ignore it.

The third major driver is more positive. During recent years we have seen lots of improvements and
technical innovations in promoting the use of renewable energy sources. This positive driver will
make it easier to manage the transition from the unsustainable present to a more sustainable future.
However, this is not an automatism. How fast the major economies of the world especially will move
in such a direction depends on many players – these are the political leaders, the industry leaders,
and of course the consumers and voters. The extent and speed of action will be strongly influenced
by the assessment of the present situation.

Source: Advances in Solar Energy 2007, Vol. 17, pp. 6-7