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Smart - 3 March 2019 PDF
Smart - 3 March 2019 PDF
Smart - 3 March 2019 PDF
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Financial Weekly
HDFC BANK
Technical Discourse: Accumulate , Buy at CMP : 2083,
Target - 2200 to 2405 ,SL- 1950, Time Frame 9 to 24 Months
HDFC Bank - HDFC Bank Ltd is a major Indian financial services company based in Mumbai.
The Bank is a publicly held banking company engaged in providing a wide range of banking and
financial services including commercial banking and treasury operations. The Bank at present has
an enviable network of 2201 branches and 7110 ATMs spread in 996 cities across India. They
also have one overseas wholesale banking branch in Bahrain, a branch in Hong Kong and two
representative offices in UAE and Kenya. The Bank has two subsidiary companies, namely HDFC
Securities Ltd and HDB Financial Services Ltd
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Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly
SMART
BUY OF THE WEEK
Dark Horse
Last week recommended UTTAM SUGAR as DARK HORSE
at Rs.110.45, it zoomed to Rs.161.3 levels in just one week
and recorded almost 46% appreciation.
DONEAR INDUSTRIES
(512519 & NSE) (37) (Face Value Rs.2)
Donear Industries Limited manufactures
and sells suitings, trousers, and shirting fab-
Particulars 9 Months Ended
rics for men and women. The company op- 9MFY19 9MFY18 % Var.
erates through two segments, Manufacturing Sales 436.92 377.25 15.8
and Dealing in Textiles, and Rental Property. PAT 11.96 10.46 14.3
Its products include polyester viscose
EPS 2.30 2.01 14.4
blended fabrics, polyester cotton blended
fabrics, polyester fabrics, cotton high value plain and yarn dyed shirting fabrics, and cotton plain
and yarn dyed bottomwear, as well as polyester wool, wool rich, and all wool fabrics. The company
offers fabrics under the Donear brand name; and garments under the brand name of Dcot. It mar-
kets and sells its products through a sales network consisting of 115 agents; 629 wholesalers; and
24,000 over the counter multi brand retail outlets in 29 states and 7 Union Territories of India. The
company also exports various blends of fabrics, including wool, polyester/viscose, polyester/wool,
polyester/cotton, poly/visc/cotton, poly/visc/lycra, poly/wool/lycra, cotton, linen cotton, linen, and
cotton modal to wholesalers, distributors, garment manufacturers, retailers, buying houses, and
departmental stores in approximately 37 countries worldwide.
It has an equity capital of Rs.10.4crore supported by reserves of around Rs.95.16crore. The
promoters hold 74.56% while other investing public hold 25.44% stake in the Company. Promoters
have increased their stake by 1.01% from open market in last one year.
During 9MFY19, its net profit zoomed 14.3% to Rs.11.96crore from Rs.10.46crore in 9MFY18
on 15.8% higher sales of Rs.436.92crore fetching an EPS of Rs.2.30.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 13x which is lower against its peers like Raymond and
others. Its 52 week high rate is Rs.64. Stock almost corrected 42% from 52 week high.
Investors can accumulate this stock with a stop loss of Rs.31. It may give very good re-
turns in medium to long term.
Cont...
Financial Weekly
PITTI ENGINEERING
(513519 & NSE) (53) (Face Value Rs.5)
Pitti Engineering Limited manufactures
Particulars 9 Months Ended
and sells electrical steel laminations, motor
9MFY19 9MFY18 % Var.
cores, sub-assemblies, die-cast rotors, and
press tools in India and internationally. The
Sales 468.7 259.17 80.8
company offers laminations for various rotat- PBT 30.54 10.57 188.9
ing electrical machinery; and manufactures PAT 17.07 8.50 100.8
dies, jigs, fixtures, and press tools. It also provides die cast rotors and assemblies, stator and rotor
core assemblies, pole assemblies, and casting and machine components, as well as steel fabri-
cated parts. In addition, the company offers windmills castings, assembled laminations stacks,
compressor castings, stator frames, transmission housings, and parts for off highway vehicles; and
ductile iron, grey iron, and plain carbon steel grades, as well as components for various industries,
including railways off highway vehicles, earthmoving equipment, compressors, windmills, power
sector, transmission parts, oil and gas, etc. Its products has applications in industrial motors, alter-
nators, hydro and thermal power generators, wind power generators, DC machines, traction mo-
tors, pumps, medical diagnostic equipment, and aeronautic wing control motors.
It has an equity capital of Rs.14.92crore supported by reserves of around Rs.145.39crore. The
promoters hold 53.58% & Other DIIs hold 9.81% while other investing public hold 34.12% stake in
the Company.
Company has posted robust numbers for Q3FY19 & 9MFY19. During Q3FY19 it has reported
114.53% higher sales of Rs.165.68crore while its PAT zoomed 91% to Rs.5.09crore against
Rs.2.67crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.74. During 9MFY19, its net profit zoomed 100.8% to
Rs.17.07crore from Rs.8.50crore in 9MFY18 on 80.8% higher sales of Rs.468.7crore fetching an
EPS of Rs.5.84. 9MFY19 PAT is 51.32% higher than PAT recorded for FY18.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 8x. It has paid 20% dividend for FY18. Its 52 week high
rate is Rs.110. Stock almost corrected 52% from 52 week high.
Investors can accumulate this stock with a stop loss of Rs.47.5. It may give very good returns in
medium to long term.
Financial Weekly
TRADNICAL STRATEGY
Email: nimesh@nimeshthaker.com, M. 9228237373
NIMESH THAKER, BARODA
Sebi Registered NO. : INH000005874
Interestingly all the significant Moving Averages (20dma, 50dma & 200dma) have converged
into a narrow Confluence Zone between Sensex 36038-36118 and Nifty 10813-10862. A close
above this zone will take both the indices higher towards the upper end of their trading range.
The Correction of the current upward Retracement is at Sensex 35300-34922-34538 and Nifty
10610-10494-10379. A break below Nifty 10379, will see the intermediate Correction resuming
and the intermediate Correction levels are placed at Sensex 33920-32354-30788 and Nifty 10283-
9827-9371. Higher degree Correction levels are placed at Sensex 32688-30742-28796 and Nifty
9875-9293-8710. Thus we have two confluence zones which will act as Support Zones. First
Confluence Support Zone is between Sensex 32688-32354 and Nifty 9875-9827. Second
Confluence Support Zone falls between Sensex 30788-30724 and Nifty 9371-9293.
This week, both the indices closed above all the Moving Averages viz. the long term average of
200dma (Sensex - 36038 and Nifty - 10862), the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 36058
and Nifty - 10816) and also the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 36118 and Nifty - 10832).
Thus the Trend in long term, medium term and short term remains Upwards.
MACD as well as Price ROC are in Buy mode. RSI (53) suggests Bullish momentum. Stochas-
tic Oscillator %K (60) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (10) suggests a further sideways
consolidation with no clear trend. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI is above -DI. MFI
(45) suggests Negative Money Flow. OBV is not confirming with the upward trend. Thus Oscilla-
tors are suggesting a mixed bias.
Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 11000 whereas
the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10800. Thus Options data suggests a narrow trading
range with resistance at 11000 & support at 10800.
Financial Weekly
Jignesh R Mehta
(SEBI Registered Research Analyst)
E-mail : support@kiranjadhav.com
Website : www.KiranJadhav.com
Phone: 9327 11 3344 / 9328 11 33 44
Twitter: @jigneshrmehta
RISING STAR:
Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts Ltd. (190)
NSE: TAJGVK, SECTOR:Hotels
Cont...
Financial Weekly
RISING STAR:
Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts Ltd. (190)
NSE: TAJGVK, SECTOR:Hotels
For many, this may not be proper time to hold a small to midcap company but for us this indeed
is a time to advocate for very good bullish counter that we just had in our radar. It is none other than
TAJGVK. The reason why the price move is very evident is that the price is dealing back again with
the historical resistance it had in 2008, 2010, 2016 and in 2017. While price is in apparent up trend
ever since 2016 with a firm support line underneath it, price is also trading in current bullish mo-
mentum.
Momentum is caused by the bullish spread that is obvious from the long term EMA group. Also
the up spurts that is seen in volume ever since price in uptrend is suggestive of stock being swapped
from weaker section to the stronger sections firmly. All and all, current structure is quite bullish and
at least double the money breakout is on hand. Anyone with a positive node from his personal
adviser can hold this stock with a target price of at least 380 in next 2 years. The strict stop loss that
one should not forget to follow is the support line shown in the chart which is currently placed at
165.
Jignesh R Mehta
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
www.kiranjadhav.com
support@kiranjadhav.com
Phone: 9327 11 33 44 / 9328 11 33 44
Twitter: @jigneshrmehta
Disclosers: Views expressed in this article/articles are personal opinion of Author and it
does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. Enough care has
been taken before arriving at these data, figures & charts, however, readers are advised to
do their own assessment before taking any actions in the market. The author and his com-
pany does not take any responsibility for any results that may arise out of using this infor-
mation.
Nifty Overview : In Last Trading Session, Nifty closed at 10914. Nifty still remains in range,
however with positive bias. Nifty support is at 10790/10615 levels while resistance is at 11090
levels. For now one can buy in dip for trading.
Bank Nifty Overview : In Last Trading Session, Bank Nifty closed at 27189. Similar to
Nifty, even Bank Nifty is in range with positive bias. Bank Nifty support is at 26780/26650
levels while resistance is at 27450 levels. For now, one can buy bank nifty in dip for trading.
Trading Buy
Scrip Name BSE Last Enter at 1st 2nd Stop
Code Close Between Tgt. Tgt. Loss
Arvind 500101 84 77/79 82 86 74.7
Bank of India 532149 88.3 80/83 87 93 78
BHEL 500103 66.6 62/64 67 70 60
Cadila 532321 324 310/315 325 335 305
Can Fin Homes 511196 279 263/266 275 285 258
Ceat 500878 1102 1070/1080 1100 1120 1060
Infibeam 539807 36 34/35 38 41 32
Jet Airways 532617 227 210/215 225 235 203
KSCL 532899 407 395/400 410 420 388
Tata Motors DVR 500570 90 84/87 93 100 80
Trading Sell
Scrip Name BSE Last Enter at 1st 2nd Stop
Code Close Between Tgt. Tgt. Loss
Zee 505537 490 505/510 500 490 515
Note : All calls are momentum calls based on technical analysis and all levels as per future prices (If scrip not available in futures then BSE Cash price). All
these calls are given based on daily charts but intra-day signals are equally important to enter the trade in a timely manner. Timing is very important and we at
shareinfoline.com give you timely calls based on intra-day charts. Read Disclaimer at ShareInfoline.com
Financial Weekly
Topic - 9
Different Type of Reversal Chart Patterns
Hello Friends,
Hope you all are doing well..!!!
In last week we discussed about Morning Star and Evening Star reversal
Candlestick Pattern and it was an end of reversal candlestick pattern
We discussed many important reversal candlestick pattern of Single Candle-
stick, Double Candlestick and Triple Candlestick and their place and effect in
Japanese Candlestick chart
From this week we are going to start one more interesting topic in this Tech-
nical Analysis educational series and that is "Different Type of Reversal Chart
Patterns"
We all know that, Bearish and Bullish sentiment are part of the market, but
nothing is permanent, we all know the word "correction"
In very simple word, correction means a opposite side price effect for any
stock if that stock trading at very high level or at very low level from its average
trading price
Reversal Chart pattern help us to identify Demand Zone, Supply Zone, Ex-
pected Future Support and Resistance Zone for any stock or commodity
In this educational series, we will going to cover below reversal chart patterns,
their location in candlestick chart and future expected effect on price of stock,
commodity or currency
1) Double Top (Up Trend Reversal Pattern )
2) Double Bottom (Down Trend Reversal Pattern)
3) Triple Top (Up Trend Reversal Pattern )
4) Triple Bottom (Down Trend Reversal Pattern)
5) Head and Shoulder (Up Trend Reversal Pattern )
6) Reverse Head and Shoulder (Down Trend Reversal Pattern)
Cont....
Financial Weekly
For ready reference I am sharing the pattern photograph of all this shared
pattern, we will discuss one by one all this pattern and its importance in detail in up
coming issue of Smart Investment.
I hope you all like this educational series, this is my only effort to write Techni-
cal Analysis subject's various topic in very simple and easy language where every one
can understand and enhance their knowledge.
Financial Weekly
pattern, SRF can be bought for a price target of Rs 2500. Stop-loss would be Rs 2245 on daily
closing basis. Time Frame : 20 to 22 days.
Financial Weekly
Cont...
Financial Weekly
KAJARIA CERAMICS
(500233/NSE) (555.45) (FV 1)
Kajaria Ceramics is the largest
manufacturer of ceramic/vitrified tiles
in India and the 9th largest in the world.
It has an annual capacity of 68.00 mn.
sq. meters presently, distributed across
seven plants - one in Sikandrabad
(UP), one in Gailpur (Rajasthan), One
in Malutana (Rajasthan), three in Morbi
(Gujarat) and one in Vijaywada(AP).
For Q3 of the current financial year the
co mpan y po sted ne t sa les of
Rs.758.56crores and net profit of
Rs.64.8 0cro re v /s n et s ales of
Rs.54.31crores and net profit of Rs.53.11crore in corresponding period last year, registering a growth
of 19.3% in bottom line on YoY basis. Stock witnessed a cycle correction its 9 year uptrend from Rs.10
in 2008 to Rs.789 per share in 2017 retracing 61.8% of the rise to form base at 310 in October 2018.
After which the stock bounced sharply by 50% from the low in the next 2 months to 469 on huge
volumes. Stock, currently is trading above its 5,10,20,50,200 DEMA on daily charts with a fresh super
trend break out on daily charts on 1/3/2019.The MACD already in buy mode on daily and weekly charts
has indicated a buy recently on its monthly chart as well. The ADX and PARABOLIC SAR are in buy
mode on daily, weekly and monthly charts. The stock can bought at CMP and added on dips or correc-
tions for a target of 765 in the next 18 to 21 months.
NIFTY FUTURE
NIFTY FUT SUPPORT AT 10660-10550AND RESISITANCE10944-11100
STRATEGY:-BUY BANK NIFTY ON DIPS TILL 27000 SL 267500 TA 27400-550
STOCKSF&O:-
ALLAHABAD BANK :- BUY ALBKON DIPS TILL 46 SL 45 TA 54-58
MNM FIN :- BUY MNM FIN ON DIPS TILL 405SL 398TA 434-40
WOCKHARDT :- BUY WOCKHARDT ON DIPS TILL 410 SL 405 TA 454-65
DLF :- BUY DLF ON DIPS TILL 162 SL 160TA 177-84
ALL SL ARE CLOSING BASIS
SELL STOCKS
SELL INFY ON RISE TILL 750 SL 772 TA 720-680
SELL TCS ON RISE TILL 2040 SL2070 TA1850-20
DELIVERY STOCKS
BUY AVADH SUGAR (Rs. 490.00) SL 400 TA 650-800
DISCLAIMER :-The Recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss
in trading.Please visit website www.dallalstreet.org for full disclaimer and disclosures.
Tata Steel (Rs. 507.00) (Code: 500470) (F.V.: 10.00) :- Tata Steel is the largest
steel manufacturer in India and also a leading one in Europe. The share touched a high of Rs. 684
and low of Rs. 441 in the last year. The company’ market cap is Rs. 61,067 crores. A lot of correc-
tion has been seen in commodity shares in recent days owing to global uncertainty. Tata Steel has
also corrected significantly. For December quarter, its income went up from Rs. 33,446 crores to
Rs. 41,220 crores. Profit more than doubled from Rs. 1,136 crores to Rs. 2,286 crores. Tata Steel is
expected to gain from the takeover of Bhushan Steel. One can consider investing in this stock in
phases.
AIA Engineering (Rs. 1,749.00) (Code: 532683) (F.V.: 2.00) :- This Ahmedabad-
headquartered company has delivered excellent returns for investors. It is considered the second
largest high chrome casting producer in the world. The share touched a high of Rs. 1887 and low
of Rs. 1325 in the last year. Established in 1979, the company now has presence in more than 75
countries. Its equity is Rs. 18.86 crores, while it has reserves of Rs. 2,741 crores, making it a strong
bonus candidate. Promoter holding is 58.47%. FIIs also hold good stake. For first nine months of
the fiscal, AIA’s income went up from Rs. 1676 crores to Rs. 2106 crores, while profit rose from Rs.
291 crores to Rs. 355 crores. It is expected to continue its strong performance in the future. The
company has just declared 80% interim dividend.
Balkrishna Industries (Rs. 894.00) (Code: 502355) (F.V.: 2.00) :- Agriculture
segment accounts for 62% of its income, whereas industrial, construction and earth-moving seg-
ments have 34% share. It has two plants in Rajasthan, one in Gujarat, and one in Maharashtra. It
derives majority of its income through exports. For December quarter, sales were up by 9% from
Rs. 1106 crores to Rs. 1205 crores. Profit declined 24% from Rs. 189.5 crores to Rs. 144.7 crores.
Quarterly EPS was Rs. 7.48. The stock touched a 52-week high of Rs. 1467 crores and low of Rs.
744 crores. The correction in the stock is a buying opportunity. It has paid 300% interim dividend
for 2019.
Timken India (Rs. 572.00) (Code: 522113) :- The shares of this industrial machinery
company are listed in B Group, and have face value of Rs. 10. The share touched a 52-week high
of Rs. 812 and low of Rs. 495. Its merger with ABC Bearings will lead to creation of a large entity in
auto ancillary space. A subsidiary of US’s Timken, the company makes roller bearings, which are
used in railway and heavy industries. The company has market cap of Rs. 4,303 crores. For De-
cember quarter, its income rose 38% to Rs. 385 crores, while net profit shot up by 188% to Rs.
26.43 crores. EBIDTA jumped 152% to Rs. 58.81 crores. Promoter holding is 67.80%. ICICI Direct
has given a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 640.
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014 ; • I and / or
my clients may have investment in this stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the
company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short / Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not
be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or may not be
substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly
Golden quote :-
Keep your eyes on the stars, and
your feet on the ground
Financial Weekly
Dilip Davda
e-mail Expert’s Eye
dilip_davda@rediffmail.com
Ex-Bonus of terrorists and thus it closed the day in red. NSE Nifty lost 44.80 points
Maximus (1 for 1) to end the day at 10835.30. BSE Sensex marked deficit of 239.67 points
Vishal Bearings (4 for 5)
to close at 35973.71.Both benchmarks recovered from the low of the
Bonus Meet day on short coverings ahead of derivatives expiry. Markets discounted
Indo US BIO (7-3-2019) Indian Air force action against terrorism. Capital Goods, Banking
counters lead the doom and got support from Mid and Small cap seg-
Right Issue ment. FIIs were the net buyers for the day.
Bharti Airtel (19 for 67) IAF's action being praised and welcome by one and all brought back
market mood and we marked higher opening. However, derivatives
Dividend expiry kept a tab on general sentiment and Pakistan's reaction to entire
Announcement event raised concern. Amidst such a scenario, ON Wednesday NSE
United Drilling (6%),
Elantas Beck (45%), HDFC closed at 10806.65 with a mere loss of 28.65 points and BSE Sensex
AMC (240%), Sanofi (660%), ended the day at 35905.43 with a small deficit of 68.28 points. Amidst
Standard Chartered PLC (15 rising volatility, FIIs remained net buyers. Mounting tension over Indo-
cents), KSB Ltd (60%), Pak war kept operators on a caution as they were offloading at every
Merck Ltd. (240% + 4160%)
Vesuvius India (70%), REC rise.
Ltd (110%), ABB India Thursday being derivatives expiry day marked choppy trades in a
(240%), NALCO (90%) etc. range bound movements. While NSE Nifty lost just 14.15 points to end
Financial Weekly
the day at 10792.50, BSE Sensex posted deficit of mere 37.99 points to close at 35867.44. Lower
economic and infra sector growth raised concern. Despite hat trick of negative closing, FIIs were
net buyers for the day. Rising fiscal deficit was a major concern as opined by seasoned observers.
Friday again witnessed opening with positive bias and remained in green territory for the day till
close. NSE Nifty scored 71.00 points to close at 10863.50 and BSE Sensex gained 196.37 points
to end the day at 36063.81, Thus while Sensex closed above 36K, Nifty failed to see through 11K
for the entire week. Select defense and auto counters gained on positive reports for the sectors.
During the week so far, dividend announcement came in from United Drilling (6%), Elantas
Beck (45%), HDFC AMC (240%), Sanofi (660%), Standard Chartered PLC (15 cents), KSB Ltd
(60%), Merck Ltd. (240% + 4160%) Vesuvius India (70%), REC Ltd (110%), ABB India (240%),
NALCO (90%) etc.
During the week scrip turned ex-bonus included Maximus (1 for 1) and Vishal Bearings (4 for 5).
During the week Bharti Airtel announced rights issue in the ratio of 19 for 67 shares.
Dollar weaken a bit to around Rs. 70.85 for the week, Crude Oil (Brent) too eased a bit around
66.15 $ a barrel. Ensuing week will have just four sessions as Monday is a holiday on account of
Mahashivratri. In opening for the ensuing week, it will mirror the global sentiment coupled with auto
and cement sector dispatch data that were announced post noon on Friday. Global and domestic
economic data will be at center stage for a while. Hence market may move sideways in absence of
any major factors. Friday late eve report of U S Consumer spending falling for first time in last two
years may have cascading impact on next week's opening. Geopolitical tension will keep a tab on
general sentiment for a while.
Amidst such a scenario NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex may hover between 11300-10300 and
36600-35200 respectively for the ensuing week.
Indo US Bio to held board meet on 07 March 2019 to consider bonus issue.
DISCLAIMER : No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in
any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making
investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here. Any
reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at own risk. Above information is based on the details available as on the date
along with market perceptions. Investors should bear in mind that any investments in stock markets are subject to unpredictable market related risks. (THE
AUTHOUR IS SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST)
7744804098
Financial Weekly
TCI Express (Rs. 648.00) (Code : 540212) (F. V. : 2.00) : Third-party express
logistics service provider TCI Express (TCIX) reported yet another strong quarterly performance in Q3
FY19. The company reported healthy topline performance, with mid-teen growth in revenue and an expan-
sion in operating margin. The management is upbeat on the growth outlook and expects the company to
deliver high double-digit volume growth along with an improvement in margin over the next few years.
Revenue for the quarter under review increased 15 percent to Rs 247 crore on the back of a 11 percent
growth in business volume. Besides, prices hikes in certain segments also contributed to growth in topline.
EBITDA came in 29 percent higher than last year at Rs 31 crore as margin expanded further to 11.8
percent. Capex outlay for the next four years is pegged at Rs 400 crore. The management seems confident
in achieving 15-16 percent volume growth for the next 2-3 years. After 10 pcer cent correction in January,
the stock has recovered the loss in February. The stock is worth accumulation.
GAIL (Rs.343.00) (Code : 532155) (F. V. : 10.00) : Reliance Securities has initiated
coverage on GAIL India with a buy recommendation and an SOTP-based target price of Rs 382, implying
12 percent upside. The brokerage expects the state-owned natural gas distributor to witness 9 percent
earning CAGR through FY19-21E backed by swing in gas volume from HVJ (Hazira - Vijaypur -Jagdishpur)
(low tariff) to DVPL (Dahej-Vijaipur pipeline) (higher tariff), as the company will continue to swing in gas
volume from HVJ to DVPL. Further the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) is likely to
upwardly revise HVJ and DVPL tariff in next 6-8 months, it said, adding post simulating the impact of final
orders for HVJ and DVPL, model suggests that the tariff for DVPL can increase by Rs 11.5/MMbtu, while
HVJ can witness rise by Rs 31.1/MMbtu. GAIL pleads for a flat tariff of Rs 57/MMbtu for its major pipelines
versus existing average of Rs 39/MMbtu. In case unified tariff is approved, GAIL's EBITDA could rise by
Rs 2,390 crore in FY20, said the brokerage house. GAIL has introduced Metallocene a value-added prod-
uct, which will improve the overall petrochemical realisation and expected to contribute 15 percent to the
total sales volume. Buy.
Future Retail (Rs. 432.00) (Code : 540064) (F. V. : 2.00) :- Future Retail Ltd, a
part of the Kishore Biyani-led Future Group, has signed a master franchise agreement with US-headquar-
tered 7-Eleven Inc to operate the Indian stores of the world's largest convenience store chain. SHME Food
Brands, a subsidiary of Future Retail, will open the first Indian stores under the 7-Eleven brand starting this
year. It will also re-brand some of its existing stores. As per the agreement, 7-Eleven will initially sell bever-
ages, snacks and immediately consumable fresh foods among other products. It will join the ranks of US
retail giants such as Walmart and Amazon in building an Indian presence. 7-Eleven is owned by Japan's
Seven & i Holdings. It operates over 67,000 stores in 17 countries including the US, Canada, Mexico,
Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and China. Future Retail stock has corrected significantly in last two
months. It is a good opportunity to enter into this counter. Buy.
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly
Ramco Cements (Rs. 689.00) (Code : 500260) (F. V. : 1.00) :- Ramco Cements
rallied last Wednesday after global investment firm Deutsche Bank raised price targets on likely strong
growth in South India cement business.It said that Margin cycle is turning favourable in south. Hence,
Ramco is the preferred play on South India. Ramco gets 70 percent of its volumes in South.Deutsche
upgraded its rating on Ramco Cements to buy and raised price target to Rs 750 from Rs 630 earlier as it
estimates at 32 percent EPS CAGR in FY19-21 driven by 11 percent CAGR in volumes.The Ramco Ce-
ments, a prominent cement producer in south India, is undertaking one of its largest capital expenditure
programmes by investing Rs.3,430 crore in a greenfield cement unit in Andhra Pradesh and in brownfield
expansion across two States over the next 24 months.The greenfield and brownfield expansions will take
the total production capacity of Ramco Cements in Andhra Pradesh to about 10 MTPA, making it the largest
cement producer in the State. The stock is worth accumulation.
IPCA laboratories (Rs. 853.00) (Code : 524494) (F. V. : 2.00) :- IPCA has
reported better Q3 numbers. It has shown strong profitability and strong EBITDA margins(24.5%). Rev-
enues grew 10.3% yoy to Rs 947.6 crore due to 10% growth in domestic formulations to Rs 421.6 crore
EBITDA margins improved 569 bps to 24.5% due forex gain, strong gross margins and lower employee
cost. EBITDA grew 43.7% YoY to Rs 231.7 crore. Net profit grew 51.7% to Rs 160.2 crore mainly due to a
strong operational performance. Overall, things are looking much stable over the course of the next two to
three years both on the revenues and margins front. With growing influence of ex-US segments in earnings,
the company will continue to remain a compelling bet at this level given the FY18–21E growth prospects -
sales, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 14%, 18% and 20%, respectively. Japanese brokerage house Nomura
has retained its buy call on Ipca Laboratories and raised price target to Rs 1,005 from Rs 915 apiece after
revising earnings growth estimates upward. It expects company to deliver 43 percent earnings CAGR over
FY18-21, but it has not factored in warning letter resolution & commencement of supplies to US. Buy.
Emami (Rs. 396.00) (Code : 531162) (F. V. : 1.00) :- Emami Group promoters has
sold 10 per cent stake in the FMCG flagship Emami Ltd in a block deal to raise Rs 1,600 crore from a group
of investors which includes SBI Mutual Fund, PremjiInvest, Amundi, IDFC and L&T Mutual Fund amongst
others which will help reduce promoter debt. Promoters used to fund newer businesses like cement and
solar power. Post the stake sale, promoter holding in Emami Ltd will stand at 62.74 per cent and the promot-
ers have no immediate plan of further equity dilution. Apart from FMCG, the group is also into several other
businesses such as cement, edible oil, newsprint, retail which includes a pharmacy chain Emami Frank
Ross, bio-diesel, hospitals, art and real estate. Emami reduced its debt from Rs 390 crore in FY17 to Rs
118 crore in FY18. As of quarter ended December 2018, the promoters had pledged 47.58 per cent of their
total holding. In Emami Paper Ltd, the promoters have pledged 61.75 per cent shares out of their total
holding of 74.97 per cent. There will be more value unlock in future. Buy.
Vardhman Textiles (Rs. 1055.00) (Code : 502986) (F. V. : 10.00) : Vardhman
Textiles has reported financial results for the period ended December 31, 2017. Revenues grew 5% yoy to
Rs 1729 crore. Revenues from the textile segment grew 5% to Rs 1658 crore while acrylic fibre reported
revenue growth of 11% to Rs 96 crore Gross margins for the quarter improved 516 bps to 48.4%. Subse-
quently, EBITDA margins improved 400 bps YoY to 17.8%. Absolute EBITDA grew 36% to Rs 307 crore.
EBIT margins for the textile segment expanded 710 bps to 18.1% whereas the acrylic segment registered
an EBIT loss of Rs 7.5 crore in Q3FY19 compared to profit of Rs 17.41 crore in Q3FY18. Higher other
income (up 61% YoY to Rs 60.4 crore) aided PAT growth. Resultant PAT grew 44.4% YoY to Rs 195.8
crore. EBITDA margin is expected to be range bound at 17-18% for FY19E, FY20E. Buy.
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly
Aditya Birla Capital (Rs. 92.00) (Code: 540691) :- A part of the Aditya Birla Group,
the company provides financial services to NBFCs, housing finance companies, life and health
insurance companies, and asset management companies. In the first nine months, it got 35% of
income from NBFC segment, 42% from life insurance segment, nine percent from asset manage-
ment, and six percent from housing finance. For the December quarter, it reported income of Rs.
3,782 crores, and net profit of Rs. 193 crores. The share is trading at a forward PE multiple of 21. It
can be seen crossing Rs. 100 in the short term, and Rs. 125 in the medium term. Promoter holding
is 72.74%.
Gujarat Borosil (Rs. 99.00) (Code: 523768) :- Shares of this construction materials
company are listed in XC group and have face-value of Rs. 5. The share touched a 52-week high
of Rs. 142 and low of Rs. 81. Promoter holding is 74.95%. The company has a modern seat glass
plant at Bharuch. It forayed into low iron solar glass a few years ago, which has applications in
photovoltaic panels, flat panel collectors and green houses. For December quarter, income de-
clined 7.38% to Rs. 49 crores, whereas profit fell 73% to Rs. 0.56 crores. EBIDTA declined 15% to
Rs. 9.27 crores. The stock can give 10-15% returns in the short to medium term.
Subros (Rs. 245.00) (Code: 517168) :- The B Group listed shares touched a 52-week
high of Rs. 379 and low of Rs. 206. Subros is a manufacturer of air conditioners used in automo-
biles and is a monopoly player. It makes ACs for cars, buses, railway, and transport trucks. It is
expected to gain from growing sales of Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra. The
company is also in the process of expanding its capacities. For FY 2017-18, it reported income of
Rs. 1,969 crores and profit of Rs. 60.62 crores. For December quarter, income rose 14% to Rs.
510.69 crores, while profit went up by 5% to Rs. 17.19 crores. Trading at a PE multiple of 18, the
stock can be seen crossing Rs. 280-290 levels in the short to medium term.
MRPL (Rs. 65.00) (Code: 500109) :- The shares of this refiner are listed in A group and
have face value of Rs. 10. The shares touched a 52-week high of Rs. 121 and low of Rs. 60. It is the
third largest refiner after HPCL and BPCL. Promoter holding is 88.58%. It had paid 60% dividend
last year. The dividend yield works out at 2.93%. For 2017-18, it reported income of Rs. 63,083
crores and profit of Rs. 2,224 crores. For December quarter, income went up by 26.6% to Rs.
17,860 crores. It reported loss of Rs. 268 crores, which declined by 127%. The stock is quoting
near the 52-week low. It can give 10-15% returns in the medium to long term. ICICI Direct has given
a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 75.
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly
below 10730.if broken below this level, we may see bad days for bulls. On upper side 10920/940
is resistance. At higher levels there is possibility of selling.
GDP Growth ; in hours of grief. We have bad news on economic fronts.gdp growth has come
lowest of five years at 6.6%on Thursday appreciation of rupee against dollar may vanished.
The market analysts Shri Shankar Sharma has predicted fall in the market. He has gone to the
expect that if NDA regain power again, Still fall s possible.
ICICI Bank ; On Thursday around rs.346 some accumulation was seen but we feel that traders
should short at higher level.
Sun Pharma ; For short term traders, This share may help bulls. Buy between 440/445 with s/l
of Rs. 535.the expected price is 460/465.
TVS motor is highly volatile. Our observation is in first hour of trading share is rigged up to sale.
it falls rs.5/7 from higher levels. Good for intraday.
Bata ; this share was in bulls grip in last few days. But now bulls have given up. Sale on any rise
is advise.
ADAG shares. Reliance capital taking support around rs.165. Good accumulation seen. Hold
with s/l of 160 foe target of Rs178.
Reliance infra is very well. Sale on rise.
Tatasteel ; buy on declines/l is rs.495 and target of rs.515.
Jet Air ; high risk traders can buy around rs.215 with strict s/l of rs.210.the target is rs.225.
This week some buying expected in Nalco and Oriental bank and selling expected in DHFL,
MCX and TCS
Financial Weekly
NIFTY :- For next week NIFTY has strong support around 10785 levels. Break will take it to
10730 levels. On the upper side NIFTY will face strong hurdle at 10940 levels, cross over with
volume and close above will create short covering at take NIFTY up to 11040-11120 levels…
BANK NIFTY :- For next week BANK NIFTY has strong support around 26920 levels. Break
will take it to 26760-26720 levels. On the upper side BANK NIFTY will face strong hurdle at 27190
levels, cross over with volume and close above will create short covering at take BANK NIFTY up
to 27305-27480 levels…
INVESTMENT IDEAS…
Last week recommended SAHYADRI INDUSTRIES zoomed 9% in a week while
KALPATARU POWER zoomed 15% during the week.
NOCIL LTD
(500730 & NSE) (140.45) (Face Value: Rs.10)
NOCIL Limited manufactures and sells rubber chemicals in India and internationally. It is a Part
of Arvind Mafatlal Group. During 9MFY19, its net profit soared 26% to Rs.148.32crore from
Rs.117.66crore in 9MFY18 on 12.32% higher sales of Rs.801.32crore fetching an EPS of Rs.8.98.
At CMP stock is trading at PE ratio of 11.5x. Everyone, whose financial advisor is allowing to trade
in this stock for medium to long term can watch with a stop loss of Rs.115.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author,
his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in website. Author may have positions in above
stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer: Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is
technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by
them. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.
Financial Weekly
Cont.....
Financial Weekly
Maharashtra-based
GKP Printing & Packaging
files DRHP with BSE SME for IPO
Maharashtra Palghar-Thane based GKP Printing and Packaging Ltd plans to enter into
the market to raise Rs658 crore by offering 20.56 lakh equity shares with face value of
Rs10 a share at offer price of Rs32 a share. It has filed DRHP with BSE SME exchange.
The company is planning IPO to fulfill working capital requirement. The promoters are
Keval Harshad Goradia and Payal Keval Goradia. As on September 2018, the company's
equity was Rs371.49 lakh, and Networth was 571.30 lakh. The company clocked profit of
Rs2 crore on income of Rs13.30 crore. The book value was 15.18. Pre-issue equity capital
is 52,76,944 and post issue it will be 73,32,944. Lead Manger is Holani Consultant Pvt Ltd
and Registrar is Link Intime.
pany has raised Rs515 crore till now. The issue is scheduled to close on March 14 but considering good
response it may close ahead of the scheduled closing date.
L&T Fin :- Non banking finance company L&T Fin plans to raise Rs1500 crore in three parts of NCDs.
The issue that will open on March 6 and close on March 20 will have base price of Rs500 crore and shelf
limit of Rs1000 crore. In the first part, the company is offering bonds with maturity period of 36, 60 and 120
months. The interests for retailers are in range of 9.10-9.35%, while for institution it is in range of 9 to 9.20%.
The debt expenditure is 8.5% and the coupon rate is higher than 9% so it is not likely to reduce. It seems to
be a strategic move.
The issue lead manager is Edelweiss and AK Capital and issue trustee is Axis Trust Investment. ICRA,
CARE and IND has given AAA/Stable rating to the issue. Considering the possibility of FD rates going down, the
issue may give good return in long term. The issue may close ahead of scheduled closing date of March 27.
* Insight into the upcoming issues :- Muthoot Fin's micro finance company Muthoot Micro Fin plans to
enter into the market with OFS of Rs500 crore in mid-March. The promoters' stake will come down from
86% to 70%. It is active in Gold Loan Business since 2010.
Financial Weekly
Cont...
Financial Weekly
Financial Weekly
Every Sunday Every Wednesday
Bharti Airtel (Rs. 308.00) (Code: 532454) :- The company's board has approved the
proposal to raise up to Rs. 32,000 crores through rights issue and bonds. The move will allow the
company to compete with Jio and other telecom operators.
Sail (Rs. 52.00) (Code: 500113) :- Global investment fund JP Morgan has upgraded the
rating of this PSU from 'Neutral' to 'Overweight'. The target price was 61% higher than the current
price. Rising steel prices, and favourable risk-reward ratio were the reasons for the upgrade. The
share jumped 9% in a single session on Friday.
Bajaj Auto (Rs. 2,862.00) (Code: 532977) :- The company reported sale of 3.93 lakh
vehicles in February, a jump of 10% over last year. The growth was driven largely by exports,
which rose 19% to 1.71 lakh units. Domestic sales were up by 4% to 2.21 lakh units.
Jet Airways (Rs. 234.00) (Code: 532617) :- After remaining under pressure for a
long time, shares of the loss-making airline went up by 6% on Friday. The development came amid
reports that Naresh Goyal has agreed to step down as chairman, and will reduce his stake from
51%. Etihad, which holds 24% at present, will infuse funds.
Vascon (Rs. 15.00) (Code: 533156) :- The EPC and real estate player has bagged a
Rs. 83.52 crore order from AAI. The trading volumes surged by six times, while the share was up
by 15% on the back of the order.
Anup Engg. (Rs. 474.00) (Code: 542460) :- The demerged entity of Ahmedabad-
based, Arvind Anup Engineering, got listed today. The shares were listed at Rs. 451.60, and hit a
5% upper circuit to touch Rs. 474. The company makes critical process equipment for core indus-
tries.
Panacea Biotech (Rs. 198.00) (Code: 531349) :- The company's board has ap-
proved one time settlement with the consortium of lenders. The stock has been on the rise in the
past three days.
Tata Motors DVR (Rs. 90.00) (Code: 570001) :- The shares of Tata Motors DVR,
which come without voting rights, are trading at a 50% discount compared to the shares of Tata
Motors. The shares are attractively valued, and are poised for a big jump in the short term.
Vodafone Idea (Rs. 29.00) (Code: 532822) :- The company plans to come up with a
Rs. 5,000 crore rights issue to take on Jio. The proposal has received the nod from the cabinet.
Symphony (Rs. 1,275.00) (Code: 517385) :- Axis Securities has initiated coverage
of Ahmedabad-based air cooler manufacturer Symphony with a buy call on the stock. The re-
search house has set a target price of Rs. 1,680 per share, which implies 36% upside potential
from February 27 levels.
Ramco Systems (Rs. 250.00) (Code: 532370) :- Ramco Systems has begun a
seven-year deal with Canadian logistics services provider. The share jumped 8% intra-day on the
back of the deal.
Tata Metaliks (Rs. 609.00) (Code: 513434) :- The company has announced plans
to spend Rs. 555 crores for capacity expansion. Its board has approved capacity expansion of DI
Pipe unit, mini blast furnace capacity, and a new 15 MW power plant.
Financial Weekly
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
" Please consider 10 minutes plus and minus in each prediction, and act accordingly. " Ganesha
advises you to compare every prediction with the prediction of the previous time slot.
08-03-2019 Friday :- " Today Moon and Mercury are together, so there will be more
movement in Bank Nifty. " From 9:15 to 9:55, Nifty may give mixed to positive results. " From 9:55
to 11:11, Nifty may give mixed to negative results. " From 11:11 to 11:51, Nifty may be influenced
by the positive impact of the Asian market. " From 11:51 to 13:13, Nifty may turn negative from
average. " Between 13:13 to 13:43 Nifty will be positive. From 13:43 to 15:30, overall the average
will be down.
Financial Weekly
Ice Make Refrigeration Limited (Ice Make), one of the leading manufacturer & supplier of cooling
solutions equipment, bagged two prestigious awards for demonstrating exemplary communica-
tions capabilities. The Company participated in “2017-18 Vision Award Annual Report Competi-
tion” hosted by the League of American Communications Professionals LLC (LACP) and has been
ranked 27th among the top 100 annual reports globally. Besides, it was also conferred with Gold
Award for excellence within its core industry category.
Commenting on the award Mr. Chandrakant P. Patel, Chairman and Managing Director, Ice
Make Refrigeration Limited, said “Ice Make has been in the forefront in producing quality cooling &
refrigeration solutions to large number of varied customer needs. The global recognition demon-
strates our endeavor towards clear and concise annual report messaging, adding yet another feather
in our cap.
Financial Weekly
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