Assignment Two: Individual Lesson Plan – Grade Four Probability

Erin Valenzuela 0652059

EDU4073 YBO

Dr. Ruth Beatty

Lakehead University
Introduction to Probability Valenzuela 2

Behind every great lesson plan is a solid foundation on which the lesson was built. One

of the key components of building a solid lesson plan, is to generate the lesson plan based on

current research. This research should focus on the current trends in student learning and what is

happening in classrooms. In mathematics specifically, it should also focus on best practices used

to teach mathematical strategies to learners at various stages of their mathematical

understanding. The following lesson plan has been generated using research on current trends for

grade four student learning, with a focus on the concept of probability. This lesson would be an

introduction to probability but only in the sense that it will be the first time it is formally

introduced to students during their math block. The research used to support this lesson plan,

identifies that students will have experienced probability within many other areas of their lives,

and acknowledging this helps build a solid foundational understanding off all that probability can

entail.

Within the lesson, it has been designed so that students are actively engaged in the

materials they are presented with. This is accomplished not only through the use of

manipulatives, but also through their real life experiences. It has been established by multiple

sources, including Lane Andrew (2009), that if students can develop understandings of

probability that are grounded in real events as opposed to simply trying to fill in a formula, they

will have a better ability to translate their learning from one experiment to the next. That is the

goal of this lesson. Begin to give students a base in their understanding of probability that will

set them up for continued success. This applies not only in the rest of the unit, but, also in years

to come when expectations related to probability increase in difficulty. This lesson sets out

accomplish this first by defining common terms related to probability including impossible,

unlikely, equally possible, likely, and certain. By establishing a strong understanding of the

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terms probability encompasses, students will be better prepared to engage in both experimental

and theoretical probability as the unit progresses.

When beginning to design this lesson, much thought was given to what educators need to

know about 21st Century Learners in today’s classrooms. This includes how technology can aid

students in their learning about probability. One of the biggest misconceptions related to using

technology in the classroom, specifically with teaching probability, is that students often struggle

with relating abstract examples given through computers, to the concept of probability itself. It is

important to note that the term technology can include many things but for the purposes of this

research and lesson plan development, it is specifically referred to in relation to computers and

SMARTboards. Knowing that, Dave Pratt (2005), speaks about being sure to pair the use of

technology with concrete representations from everyday experiences. Doing this will ensure the

transfer of learning skills is occurring as students move from task to task and concept to concept.

This awareness was brought into this introductory lesson by ensuring to focus on pairing the use

of an online interactive spinner with student generated experiences that could also be placed on

the probability continuum. The example given in the lesson is the use of Minecraft to determine

probability first on the probability continuum, and then onto the other visual representation of

probability through the use of the online spinner and eventually the paper spinner. This is an

important part of this lesson because it lays the foundation of understanding for students going

forward with further lesson in the probability unit where experiments will build on the

knowledge and understanding they gain in this first lesson.

Similarly, when conducting the research on current best practices related to teaching

probability, it was mentioned that a key thing to remember when structuring lessons related to

probability, is to always remember that students come into a lesson with prior knowledge. It is

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important to build on that knowledge instead of thinking you are starting from a blank slate. We

need to remember that just because we think students have not been formally taught about

probability, it does not mean they have not experienced it. Jeffery Frykholm (2001) speaks to

this at length in his research. It should be noted that even though his research at directed at

younger children, the same principles apply. Children learn better not when they are taught at,

but rather when they can get involved in the learning and engaging by doing. This is not specific

to mathematics either. Teachers need to be cognisant of all the knowledge that students come to

class with. They can and should be using it to push their students forward to reach their full

potentials.

What this lesson has tried to accomplish is a combination of the elements highlighted in

the current research, use prior knowledge, make it concrete by using real life representations, and

make it interactive which will result in students being more engaged. This is what ultimately

leads to increased learning. Knowing this, Bramald’s research was another name that came up

frequently and was also tied into the creation of this lesson plan. He too believes that learning

needs to be fun for students and what better way to do that make learning possible through

games specifically including concrete representations from students’ lives (1994). The

interactive spinner followed by the group spinner task in this lesson try to build on just that.

Although not formally introduced as a game, this could be an extension for this lesson. Students

could be encouraged to take the knowledge they gained from the spinner task, and make

predictions turning the task into a game. Students could even regulate the rules on their own

keeping the concept of probability in mind and this could become a culminating task to showcase

their learning at the end of the unit. From the activation portion of this lesson, through the action

and even the consolidation, best practice based on current research has been employed.

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The research and rationale behind the construction of this lesson plan can be summarized

together by stating, students need to be engaged with the material they are learning in order to

gain a stronger understanding of the concept being explored. Researchers including Van de

Walle and colleagues (2018) as well as McMillen (2008) all agree. When teaching a challenging

concept like probability, the more concrete teachers can make the learning for students, the

stronger and wider the foundation of knowledge, and ultimately, the application of the concept

will be. This lesson has built in concrete representations which students will generate themselves

to ensure it matters to them and they can relate to it. It is meant to ensure they can visualize the

probability so to speak. Just like internal number lines, setting a strong foundational

understanding of the probability continuum will allow students to be able to visual an internal

probability continuum as well. This learning is scaffolded throughout the lesson from direct

teacher modelling in a large group, to small group exploration where students are taking the lead

in generating concrete examples of probability. Ultimately, students will showcase their

individual learning by completing an exit designed following the same process students will have

worked through twice already in the lesson. By aligning assessment in this manner, students

receive multiple opportunities to build their understanding of probability through using their

prior knowledge, relating to presentations from their day to day lives, and physically engaging

with probability so they can see and feel how each piece of the probability continuum is

connected.

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Lesson Plan
Lesson Title: Introduction to Probability Grade: 4 Date: TBA
Subject/Strand: Mathematics Unit: Probability Location: Classroom Times: 100 minutes
Lesson Plan Description (What are you teaching? How does it fit into the context of the unit? What are the big ideas/essential/enduring understandings?)
Big Ideas:
 Analysing data and chance help us to compare and interpret; probability experiments develop an understanding of chance

Ontario Curriculum:
 Grade 4 Data Management and Probability (pages 74 and 75)

Teaching Focus:
 Probability – predicting through experimental probability
 1st lesson of the unit

STEP 1 : CURRICULUM CONNECTIONS

Ontario Curricular Overall Expectations (numbers from documents and details)
By the end of Grade 4, students will be able to:
 predict the results of a simple probability experiment, then conduct the experiment and compare the prediction to the results

Ontario Curricular Specific Expectations and Achievement Chart Categories

(Numbers from documents and details) selected & listed from the Ont. Curriculum, (refined when necessary): realistic number of expectations (1 or 2), connect to
assessment. Indicate category in brackets beside specific expectation :Knowledge and Understanding( K ) Thinking (T); Communication (C); Application(A)
By the end of Grade 4, students will be able to:
 predict the frequency of an outcome in a simple probability experiment, explaining their reasoning; conduct the
experiment; and compare the result with the prediction

Learning Goals Discuss with students: What will I be learning today? (Clearly identify what students are expected to know and be able to do, in language that
students can readily understand.)
Today we will learn how to:
 define terms related to probability
 make predictions related to chance

STEP 2: ASSESSMENT
Purpose of the lesson (indicate purpose for this lesson/assessment) [ X ] FOR [ ] AS [ ] OF

Success Criteria Discuss with students: How will I know I have learned what I need to learn? (Clearly identify the criteria to assess student’s learning: evidence of
learning students will provide to demonstrate their knowledge, skills and thinking, in language that students can readily understand). Indicate the Achievement Chart
criteria.
We will know we are successful when we can:
 place terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally possible, likely, and certain on a probability continuum (A)
 experiment with spinners and identify probability by making statements to place them on the
probability continuum (C and A)
 show interest in learning a new task and approaching it with curiosity (Initiative)
 work within my small group to complete spinner experiments (Collaboration)

Assessment Mode- Written, Oral,
Performance (Write, Say, Do)
Written and Do – students will
complete spinners and place their
Assessment Strategy and Task for Students-
What are the students doing to show their learning?
Students will actively participate in lesson and
complete the probability continuum organizer
to show their understanding.
Assessment Tool - Instrument used to
assess; Record Keeping format
Student work – organizer will be collected
and reviewed to determine if students are
ready to move onto lesson two in the unit

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answers on a probability continuum (further experimenting with probability).

organizer to submit as an exit ticket. Work will determine if small group or
further instruction is needed.
STEP 3: CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING
Prior Learning: Prior to this lesson, students will have
This is the first lesson in the unit but students will have experienced the terms listed under vocabulary in their day to day lives in
within the classroom.
Students will also have experienced the use of spinners in games such as “The Game of Life” and “Twister”.
Students will also have experiences with number lines which will help formulate the probability continuum.

I.E.P. program implications: Accommodations, Modifications

Differentiation: Content, Process, Product, Environment, Assessment

Students can complete organizer in groups or individually.
Students can complete organizer orally with teacher.
Additional time can be given to students to complete their exit tickets.
Students who have a strong understanding of probability from prior knowledge can challenge themselves by adding more examples to
their continuums, helping other students generate examples, or place more challenging examples from the teacher on the continnum.
Learning Skills/Work Habits: [ ] responsibility, [ ] organization, [ ] independent work, [ X ] collaboration, [ X ] initiative, [ ] self-regulation

Vocabulary: (for word wall addition or reference and/or to develop schema for this lesson. To be addressed in lesson)
 spinner – a device used to measure the amount or likelihood in which an event will occur
 probability - the extent to which an event is likely to occur; usually related to the results of an experiment
 continuum – a visual representation of probability similar to a number line
 certain – known for sure. Established beyond a doubt
 likely – might happen or be true, probable
 unlikely - not likely to happen, be done, or be true; improbable
 predict - say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something
 impossible - not able to occur, exist, or be done
 equal - being the same in quantity, size, degree, or value
 event – total number of outcomes; one or more outcome of an experiment
 outcome – individual number; result of a single trial of the experiment
 chance - the likelihood that a particular outcome will occur
 luck - success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions
Resources and Materials /Technology Integration: List ALL items necessary for delivery of the lesson. Include any attachments of student worksheets used
and teacher support material that will support communication of instruction. Include the use of Information Technology (ICT) in your lesson plan where appropriate.

 Sample anchor chart retrieved from

https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/AeXMLnmpGSDKr35sKigv6CjeU_oP-TsWBxNe3Troau6T4WMhkw_dycQ/

 Sample probability continuum retrieved from https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/227080006182038934/

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 Van de Walle et all Elementary and Middle School Mathematics Teaching Developmentally 5 th Edition
 Sample of minds on probability continuum retrieved from https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/561964859739444562/

 Graphic organizer of probability continuum attached to final lesson plan to be used as an exit ticket
 Probably Pistachio by Stewart Murphy

 Resource to support student misconceptions and promote open ended questions and thinking pages 235 - 258

 Ministry of Education Mathematics Curriculum K-8 pages 74 and 75

http://www.edu.gov.on.ca/eng/curriculum/elementary/math18curr.pdf
 Guide to Effective Instruction (Data Management and Probability) pages 31-36 and 55-67
http://eworkshop.on.ca/edu/resources/guides/Guide_Data_Management_Probability_456.pdf
 interactive spinner board retrieved from https://www.mathplayground.com/probability.html
 Smart Board or Overhead projector
 Computer
 Chart paper and posit it notes
 Markers
 Spinner Kit (1 paper spinner template, 4 coloured pencil crayons, paper clip, pencil, paper for recording)

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Three Part Lesson

What Teachers Do: Write the lesson description with enough What Students do: Identify what the students are expected to
detail that another teacher could replicate the lesson without a think about or do (in terms of learning processes).
personal discussion. Prompts and guiding questions are
required in each section.
Minds on: Motivational Hook/engagement /Introduction (5-15 min)
Establish a positive learning environment, connect to prior learning, set the context for learning, pre-determine key questions to guide lesson.
Time: 15 minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)

This is an introduction to probability lesson Possible Misconceptions:

 Students may not be able to explain the book is about
Teacher will read the book Probably Pistachio and ask students making predictions based on probability
to consider what the book might be about during the read  Students may think that terms like likely and certain are
aloud. the same and need clarification
 All events have equal probability
Introduce students to probability anchor chart as shown in  Confuse luck and chance
example above.
 Confuse theoretical and experimental probability
 Limited understanding of group or sample size
Review learning goals and success criteria as noted above.

Review the terms associated with probability –

 Impossible
 Unlikely
 Equally possible
 Likely
 Certain

Introduce students to probability continuum anchor chart.

Pose questions to students to have them place their answer on Students will be encouraged to share their ideas on what makes an
the probability continuum (have post it notes already written on event probable to place it on the probability continuum.
and blank ones for students to generate their questions as well)
 Pigs flying Anticipated Student Responses:
 Rolling 1 using 2 die  “I think birthday is certain because you have one every
 Snowing today year”
 Winning the lottery  “What if you had a magic coin with two heads?”
 Coin toss  “I think probability is more about luck. If I’m lucky, I am
 Having a birthday this year certain I will get what I want”
 Raining in the spring
 Death
 Aging

Table groups (prearranged in groups of 4) will be given a piece of
chart paper and a marker to recreate a continuum and add to
each point on the continuum an example that would fit from
their life experiences.
Students will be expected to engage in responsible work habits to
engage in accountable talk with their peers.
Anticipated Student Responses:
 “I don’t agree with her. I would place playing hockey
today as certain on my continuum because I have practice
today”
 “I already had a birthday this year so I think that means it
would be under the certain section on the continuum”

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Action: During /Working on it (time given for each component, suggested 15-40 min)
Focus is on student interactions with task/peers/teacher. Identify students/groups receiving teacher direction.
Time: 60 minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)

“Now that we have had a chance to explore the probability

continuum, let’s have a look at how we can plot our probability
terminology on another tool, the spinner”

Show students how terminology from the continuum translates Students will be encouraged to interact with the interactive
into another visual example – the spinner spinner imputing their own experiences into the model to
https://www.mathplayground.com/probability.html determine probability on a more concrete level. This will be done
(use this interactive spinner to have students describe after the students have seen the visual representation of the
impossible, unlikely, equally possible, likely, and certain) spinner comparison.
-use colours to relate to students experiences
-this could be through a shared experience such as playing Anticipate Student Responses:
Minecraft or dig deeper into one of the ideas from previous
 “How much space on the spinner shows unlikely?”
continuum examples
 “How much space on the spinner shows likely? If it is
*this is the key point to this lesson; making it tangible by using
almost the whole thing, I would think it would be almost
real life experiences
certain I would spin and land on it”
These will appear on 1 spinner each to show students their
 “Why is impossible not even on the spinner if it is an
relationship between the continuum and the spinner:
option on the continuum?”
Impossible – will not appear on the spinner but outside it
Unlikely – roughly 1/8 of the spinner will be coloured in
Equally possible – half of the spinner will be one colour, half of
the spinner will be another colour
Likely – roughly 3/4 of the spinner will be coloured in
Certain – all of the spinner will be coloured in one colour
Students can elect to volunteer to hand out materials to groups.
Student volunteer will hand out a spinner kit to each table.

Review the contents of the kit with students modelling how to

use the paperclip and pencil to make a spinner.
Anticipated Student Responses:
Write instructions on the board or show on overhead along with
 “We can’t agree on a common experience”
modelling while verbally giving instructions:
“In your table groups, determine a common experience you  “We both want the same space on the spinner”
share such as playing Minecraft. Assign each member of your  “Why doesn’t our spinner look like that groups’ spinner?”
group a possible placement on the spinner/continuum. Think of
4 probable outcomes related to this topic such as:
-I have never played the game. This is placed outside the spinner
because it will be impossible if you have all played before
-I can defeat the game in one life. This is placed in a small
portion of your spinner because it is unlikely.
-I will play this game today. This is placed in the largest portions
of your wheel as is likely.
-I can share my world with a peer who shares their world with
me. This is place in 2 equal portions on the spinner because it is
equally lucky if both partners are sharing.
How you divide your spinner depends on how you would place
these events on the probability continuum”
Model this for students using the example above on the spinner.
*use the language from the continuum to help make concrete
connections for students

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 Introduction to Probability
“When you have determined how to model your spinner based
on the continuum, record your results by spinning the spinner.
You can determine the sample size by determining how many
spins you will engage in. Record your spins using tally marks on
the sheet in your spinner kit.”
Ask students if they have any questions and then circulate
around the room while student work in their small groups.
-teacher will conference with small groups and take jot notes
commenting on student learning skills and work habits.
Give students a five minute warning when work period comes to
an end in order to begin consolidation of learning.
Consolidation & Connection (Reflect and Connect) (5-15 min.)
Help students demonstrate what they have learned, provide opportunities for consolidation and reflection. Close the assessment loop.
Time: 15 minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)
Draw students’ attention back to the learning goals and success
criteria calling upon students to identify the goals and which
success criteria they felt they were able to accomplish.
Exit ticket – have 2 students hand out tickets to class
Prompt students orally and write instructions on board or have
on overhead
“Using the knowledge and terms from the lesson today, place
the following information on the probability continuum”
-refer to exit ticket attached to final lesson plan
Model how to complete exit ticket using the initial sample from
the spinner activity placing them on the larger probability
continuum.
If printing is a challenge than students can orally present their
work when handing in their ticket
Extension Activities/Next Steps (where will this lesson lead to next)
This lesson will lead into the next lesson in the unit where students will be exploring with more experimenting to determine probable
outcomes. This may lead to experimenting with dice or other games of probability.
Students could use their experiences with building on concrete examples to generate spinner games or probability experiments as the
final culminating tasks for the unit.
Valenzuela 11
Students will work in their groups to determine their spinners
based on the probability continuum and their real life experiences.
Students will be expected to share observations with teacher
during small group conferences.
Anticipated Student Responses:
 “We noticed that the more we spun, we could make
guesses as to where the spinner was going to land”
 “We can see that even when we think something is likely
to happen, it is not certain so we need to have that
recorded as well”
Collect exit tickets to gather data on whether students met success
criteria
 place terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally possible,
likely, and certain on a probability continuum (A)
 experiment with spinners and identify probability by
making statements to place them on the
probability continuum (C and A)
 show interest in learning new and approaching new tasks
with curiosity (Initiative)
 work within my small group to complete spinner
experiments (Collaboration)
This data will confirm if students are ready to move forward with
next lesson on experimenting with probability.
If students are not ready, next lesson to continue to review
terminology and relating life experiences to the probability
continuum using spinners as a means of experimentation.
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Spinner Kit Template – one per table group

Probability Key Number of Time Spun

(colour and probability on the continuum) (Tally)

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Teacher Notes and Checklist Template to be used during student conferences and circulation

Success Criteria:
1. place terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally possible, likely, and certain on a probability
continuum (A)
2. experiment with spinners and identify probability by making statements to place them on the
probability continuum (C and A)
3. show interest in learning a new task and approaching it with curiosity (Initiative)
4. work within my small group to complete spinner experiments (Collaboration)

Student Name Date: Success Criteria 1 Success Criteria 2 Success Criteria 3 Success Criteria 4

Student A

Student B

Student C

Student D

Student E

Student F

Student G

Student H

Student initials would be used and there would be a row for each student in the class

Student Small Groupings or Pairs:

Group 1:
Group 2:
Group 3:
Group 4:

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The following were explored to support the research behind this introductory lesson into the
concept of probability:

References

Andrew, L. (2006). Experimental probability in elementary school. Online Submission.

Retrieved from

https://ezproxy.lakeheadu.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=

eric&AN=ED492727&site=eds-live&scope=site

Bramald, R. (1994). Teaching probability. Teaching Statistics, 16(3), 85–89. Retrieved from

https://ezproxy.lakeheadu.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=

eric&AN=EJ502076&site=eds-live&scope=site

Frykholm, J. A. (2001). Eenie, meenie, minie, moe ... building on intuitive notions of

chance. Teaching Children Mathematics, (2). Retrieved from

https://ezproxy.lakeheadu.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=

edsgao&AN=edsgcl.79587014&site=eds-live&scope=site

Jones, G. A. (2005). Exploring probability in school. [electronic resource] : challenges for

teaching and learning. New York : Springer, c2005. Chapters 6 and 7. Retrieved from

https://ezproxy.lakeheadu.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=

cat00833a&AN=lul.613821&site=eds-live&scope=site

Kazak, S., Wegerif, R., & Fujita, T. (2015). Combining scaffolding for content and scaffolding

for dialogue to support conceptual breakthroughs in understanding probability. ZDM: The

International Journal on Mathematics Education, 47(7), 1269–1283. Retrieved from

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https://ezproxy.lakeheadu.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=

eric&AN=EJ1081907&site=eds-live&scope=site

Ministry of Ontario. (2005). “The Ontario Curriculum Grades 1-8 Mathematics Revised”.

Ontario. Queen’s Printer for Ontario. Retrieved from www.edu.gov.on.ca

Van de Walle, J. A., Folk, S., Bay-Williams, J. M., McGarvey, L. M., Karp, K. S., & Wray, J. A.

(2018). Elementary and middle school mathematics : teaching developmentally. Toronto :

Pearson Canada, 2018. Print.

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