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Statistical PERT Normal 2.3
Statistical PERT Normal 2.3
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT
to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort,
revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance, and more.
Statistical PERT® Normal Edition uses Excel's two normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and
NORM.INV to model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties. To model a wider range of
bell-shaped uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Beta Edition which uses Excel's two beta
distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV.
This example workbook is intended to help you quickly get started. You can also download
a Quick Start guide for Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. The Quick Start guide explains the
essential things you need to know to use this Statistical PERT® Normal Edition spreadsheet.
All Statistical PERT downloads share the same three steps for making a probablistic estimate:
If you have any questions, suggestions, or comments, I'd love to hear from you!
Contact me!
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition for Beginners
Validate your bell-shaped uncertainty A green checkmark means you have correctly entered m
A green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell
Enter a Planning Estimate and see its likelihood of occurrence under SPERT Probabilit
Or, use the (1-Point entry) worksheet, where two heuristics automatically calculate the Minimum
-50% << Heuristics >> 100% (You can change the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240
Try selecting a different dropdown percentage by clicking above the Minimum and Maximum cell headings,
and see the value changes for the minimum and maximum point-estimates in the green-shaded cells.
The rest of the (1-Point entry) worksheet works exactly the same way as the (3-Point entry) worksheet.
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
dition for Beginners
green checkmark means you have correctly entered minimum, most likely and maximum point-estimates.
green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell-shaped uncertainty. If it's red, try changing your three-point estimate.
The PERT Mean is calculated using the PERT formula: (Minimum + 4(Most Likely) + Maximum) / 6
SPERT SD
d Deviation for your uncertainty 36
You don't have to know this or do anything with this, but SPERT needs this
m either the left-side area or right-side area Show Left-Side Area Read the red text below to see how this choice a
atisticalpert.com
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it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates wil
Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
atisticalpert.com
eleased
it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates wil
Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
atisticalpert.com
eleased
it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQ
0.014
0.012
0.01
0.008
0.006
0.004
The pie chart above depicts the uncertainty surrounding
the Most Likely outcome. In 100 hypothetical trials, 0.002
each pie slice shows how many times the minimum,
most likely and maximum outcomes would occur if those 0
3 15 27 39 51 63 75 87 99 111 123 135 147 1
were the only three outcomes possible.
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
3 5.7428693E-07
6 9.207077E-07
9 1.4595346E-06
12 2.2877405E-06
15 3.545675E-06
18 5.4336399E-06
21 8.2334634E-06
24 0.000012336
27 1.8275332E-05
30 2.6770489E-05
33 3.877458E-05
36 5.5531278E-05
39 7.8637193E-05
42 0.0001101078
45 0.0001524432
48 0.0002086881
51 0.0002824796
54 0.0003780735
57 0.0005003401
60 0.0006547176
63 0.0008471153
66 0.0010837543
69 0.0013709414
72 0.0017147734
75 0.0021207738
78 0.0025934731
81 0.0031359483
84 0.0037493487
87 0.0044324366
90 0.0051811839
93 0.0059884615
96 0.0068438626
99 0.0077336957
102 0.0086411719
105 0.0095468036
108 0.0104290104
111 0.0112649167
114 0.0120313024
117 0.0127056555
120 0.0132672612
123 0.0136982553
126 0.0139845665
129 0.0141166787
132 0.0140901568
135 0.0139058933
138 0.013570059
141 0.0130937592
144 0.0124924246
147 0.0117849812
150 0.0109928633
153 0.0101389395
156 0.0092464284
159 0.0083378727
162 0.007434235
165 0.0065541606
168 0.0057134397
171 0.0049246797
174 0.0041971849
177 0.0035370239
180 0.0029472546
183 0.0024282706
186 0.0019782277
189 0.0015935117
192 0.0012692116
195 0.0009995685
198 0.0007783785
201 0.000599334
204 0.0004562961
207 0.0003434981
210 0.0002556829
213 0.0001881824
216 0.000136948
219 9.8544536E-05
222 7.0114692E-05
225 4.9327066E-05
228 3.4313207E-05
231 2.3601364E-05
234 1.6051391E-05
237 1.0794139E-05
240 7.1773335E-06
243 4.71887E-06
246 3.0676985E-06
249 1.9719101E-06
252 1.2533181E-06
255 7.8765366E-07
258 4.8945081E-07
261 3.0073403E-07
264 1.8270729E-07
267 1.0975617E-07
270 6.5193123E-08
273 3.8289033E-08
276 2.2235494E-08
279 1.2767885E-08
282 7.2492134E-09
285 4.0697018E-09
288 2.2590928E-09
291 1.2399533E-09
294 6.7294001E-10
297 3.6111634E-10
300 1.916098E-10
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimate
2 (To avoid toggling the display of Excel objects, first show all Excel hidden objects,
then delete any Excel objects that you don't want to see)
0
3 15 27 39 51 63 75 87 99 111 123 135 147 159 171 183 195 207 219 231 243 255 267 279 291
tisticalpert.com
ased
and/or modify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
UT ANY WARRANTY;
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
d that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
90% 85% 80% 75%
166 159 154 149
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition This is an experime
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
This is an experimental worksheet for agile team forecasting
week sprints
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that the most likely outcome will regularly occur
story points (or user stories or features)
story points (or user stories or features)
story points of effort (or user stories or features)
confidence in our release estimate
if red, check your inputs and ensure this is a bell-shaped uncertainty
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that is: (MAX - MIN) * SPERT RSM
story points (or user stories or features) each sprint (for the confidence level expressed in cell C6)
sprints to do all the work of the PB or the next release
business weeks
non-working holiday(s) or days-off
which includes both working + non-working days
or earlier, with
confidence
-5%
-10%
-15%
These are the Minimum heuristic -20%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- -25%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed
entry)' worksheets to create a minimum -30%
value for a 3-point estimate. You can add -35%
to, remove, or change this list. -40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
10%
20%
30%
These are the Maximum heuristic 40%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- 50%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed
entry)' worksheets to create a maximum 75%
value for a 3-point estimate. You can add 100%
to, remove, or change this list. 125%
150%
175%
200%
This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of M
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
UM Confidence LOWER Confidence
24 Standard Devation: 48.7442304
0.2 Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.40620192
120 Mean: 120