GLOBAL DYNAMICS 2050

ENTERPRISE FURURE

HARSH RAJ
TII COHORT 3
[Company address]
1. The shift in global economic power from the G7 to the seven largest emerging economies (the
‘E7’) will continue in the coming decades
Justification:
• In 1995, the E7 was only about half the size of the G7 in PPP terms. By 2015, the two
groups were around the same size. Looking ahead, the E7 could be around double the
size of the G7 by 2040 (in PPP terms).
• China is already the largest economy in PPP terms, having overtaken the US in 2014.
China could also be the largest economy in MER terms before 2030.
• India will also drive the shift in global economic power and could overtake the US to be
the world’s second largest economy in PPP terms by 2050

Likelihood: 90%

2. Crypto-Currency
Justification:
• VISA and MasterCard have a share of more than 80% of the global credit card market. The world
population is increasingly moving towards cashless transaction.
• Lower transaction cost of cryptocurrency (eg: Ethereum transaction cost is $0.0007 compared to
that of $1 of credit and debit cards.
• Immediate settlement of payments. (
• Many intermediaries are involved in conventional electronic transaction.
• Decrease in purchasing power of money at times of inflation and supply fluctuations.
Cryptocurrency has lower inflation rate as compared to cash.

Likelihood: 75%

3. Information Warfare:
Information Warfare is the integration of electronic, cyber and psy ops. Bringing down stock
exchanges, financial losses, cyber attacks at industrial parks bringing life at risk, fake news
bringing down the morale of the people
Justification:
• Social networks are already in use to exploit the opinions and perspective. On a larger
scale a civil war can be instigated through this kind of warfare.
• With development of AI these attacks can become more advanced and large scale.
• Ceyhan gas pipeline is suspected to be targeted for uncontrolled pressure buildup
through sophisticated computer virus.
• Terrorist organizations have large number of advance cyber technicians. Until now, they
have been using social media to mobilize people. Soon it can turn out be in the form of
sophisticated cyberwarfare.
• Even small groups or individuals can call for a war on states due to technical knowhow of
the tools.
Likelihood: 95%
4. Globalization at the crossroads and Prevalence of protectionism: The free movement of
people, be it tourists, migrant workers, students or refugees is a key element in globalisation.
When some of these groups are prevented from moving – as is increasingly the case –
globalization is de facto being reversed.
Justification:
• The exit of UK from EU.
• Rise in number of protectionist measures. 700 in 2016 from 200 in the year 2000.
• US pulling off from trans-pacific trade agreement.
• High tariffs on imports between countries like US, China and India.
• A new world order with dominant Asia and nationalism in the west,
• authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are pulling there
countries into isolation.
• New tech like 3D printing and AI can help create in house capabilities and reduce import
dependence. There will definitely be regionalization, but globalization can be dented.
• Likelihood: 60%

5. War over Water: It will cause sub-national civil unrest, heighten geopolitical tensions around
transboundary rivers and aquifers, force large-scale migration, and inflame regional instability.
Justification:
• India blocking water flow to Pakistan.
• China’s construction of dams on Brahmaputra.
• Cameroon’s Fulani nomadic tribes moved southwards by desertification and their
encroachment in agri areas have led to major unrest.
• Syrian conflicts have caused the drought prone displaced people helpless. Ignored by
the government these are easy targets for terror organization.
• Rise of Arab Spring when droughts in Russia forced them to ban exports to middle
eastern countries.
• Agriculture (which uses 70 % of the freshwater) demand is bound to increase and so is
the water demand.
• Each 1 degree rise in temperature would mean 20% reduction in water reserves.
• Least developed countries lack the capability to adapt.
• Water scarcity could displace over 700 million by 2030. Given the current scenario
against immigration future does not looks peaceful.
• Likelihood: 60%

6. Disintegration of Middle East:

Justification:
• Most countries live at less than 1 L fresh water per person per day.
• No water means no food and other countries might cut supply as has happened already.
 • The US support will go away and so will the revenues from the oil as most countries
would move towards the renewable and non-conventional sources of energy.
• Likelihood: 75%

7. Russia won’t be the same:

Justification:
• Russia is currently acting aggressive acquiring territories to counter its weakening
economy and ageing demography. Crimea annexation being one of them.
• Rising military costs, lower oil prices will continue to weaken Russia.
• Poland and Romania will also look to recover their territories.
• We can see formal and informal disintegration of Russia.
• Likelihood: 55%

8. Turkey will become Powerful:

• A weaker US is trying to support turkey to counter iran and build a strong ally in the
region.
• Turkey is not willing to continue tensions at the borders and looking for a solution on an
immediate basis. The isolation of Iran will lead to turkey garnering support and become
a major power.
• Likelihood: 80%