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2QFY2011 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

October 25, 2010

Amara Raja Batteries BUY


CMP `198
Performance Highlights Target Price `251
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 Months
Net sales 392.5 361.2 8.7 446.7 (12.1)
EBITDA 56.8 85.1 (33.3) 62.0 (8.4)
Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%) 14.5 23.6 (909)bp 13.9 59bp
Sector Auto Ancillary
Reported PAT 31.6 47.7 (33.8) 35.7 (11.5)
Market Cap (` cr) 1,692
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta 96
For 2QFY2011, Amara Raja (ARBL) reported a decent top-line performance, 52 Week High / Low 228/139
though it was below our expectations. The company’s operating margins declined
Avg. Daily Volume 76,125
significantly due to increased lead prices and lower realisation from the telecom
Face Value (`) 2
battery segment. Thus, the company reported negative growth at the bottom line.
BSE Sensex 20,303
We maintain our positive outlook on the battery industry due to changing
Nifty 6,106
demographics, which in turn will support secular consumption growth in Indian
markets. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Reuters Code AMAR.BO
Bloomberg Code AMRJ@IN
Net sales up 8.7% yoy; net profit down 33.8% yoy: For 2QFY2011, ARBL reported
below-expectation top-line growth of 8.7% to `393cr. Growth was aided by
healthy double-digit growth in auto battery volumes. EBITDA margins declined by Shareholding Pattern (%)
909bp yoy, which was largely due to surge in input cost and lower growth and Promoters 52.1
realisation from the telecom battery segment. However, higher other income and MF / Banks / Indian Fls 22.3
lower interest cost restricted the fall in net profit to a certain extent. Net profit
FII / NRIs / OCBs 9.3
reported a 33.8% yoy decline to `31.6cr (`47.7cr).
Indian Public / Others 16.3
Outlook and valuation: We estimate ARBL’s top line to witness a ~19.3% CAGR
over FY2010–12E, largely aided by substantial growth in auto battery volumes,
while net profit is estimated to post a ~7% CAGR, largely due to lower realisation Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
from the telecom battery segment. On the valuation front, ARBL is trading at 8.9x Sensex 12.0 20.8 8.2
FY2012E EPS, reflecting a ~45% discount to Exide (adjusted for insurance ARBL (0.5) 26.3 82.2
business). We believe ARBL is well placed to tap the rising demand from the
automobile and industrial segments, with its innovative products, increased
capacity and widening reach. Consequently, discount commanded by ARBL
compared to Exide would reduce going forward. Hence, we maintain Buy on
ARBL with a 12-month Target Price of `251. At our target price, the stock will
trade at 11.3x (35% discount to Exide's multiple of 17.3x) FY2012E earnings.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 1,313 1,465 1,772 2,087
% chg 21.2 11.6 20.9 17.8
Net profit 80.5 167.0 142.4 189.7
% chg (14.7) 107.5 (14.8) 33.3
EBITDA (%) 11.5 19.2 14.3 14.8
EPS (`) 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
P/E (x) 21.0 10.1 11.9 8.9 Vaishali Jajoo
P/BV (x) 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.0 022-4040 3800 Ext: 344

RoE (%) 21.8 35.2 23.4 25.0 vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com

RoCE (%) 16.8 34.9 26.6 27.5


Yaresh Kothari
EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
022-4040 3800 Ext: 313
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 6.1 6.7 5.3 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance


Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Net sales 392.5 361.2 8.7 839.2 676.8 24.0
Consumption of RM 249.9 201.9 23.8 545.9 422.1 29.3
(% of sales) 63.7 55.9 65.0 62.4
Staff costs 20.2 15.4 31.4 39.9 27.6 44.9
(% of sales) 5.2 4.3 4.8 4.1
Purchases of goods 0.7 0.5 47.8 2.5 1.7 46.7
(% of sales) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Other expenses 64.8 58.3 11.2 132.1 95.1 38.9
(% of sales) 16.5 16.1 15.7 14.1
Total expenditure 335.7 276.0 21.6 720.4 546.5 31.8
Operating profit 56.8 85.1 (33.3) 118.9 130.4 (8.8)
OPM 14.5 23.6 14.2 19.3
Interest 0.4 2.6 (83.3) 0.9 6.5 (86.7)
Depreciation 10.5 10.7 (1.4) 20.8 17.8 16.7
Other income 1.6 1.2 28.7 2.5 1.6 59.5
PBT (excl. extr. items) 47.5 73.1 (35.1) 99.7 107.6 (7.4)
Extr. income/(expense) 0.3 0.2 - (0.9) (7.4) -
PBT (incl. extr. items) 47.2 73.0 (35.3) 100.5 115.0 (12.6)
(% of sales) 12.0 20.2 12.0 17.0
Provision for taxation 15.6 25.2 (38.1) 33.2 33.2 -
(% of PBT) 33.1 34.6 33.0 28.9
Reported PAT 31.6 47.7 (33.8) 67.3 81.8 (17.7)
PATM 8.1 13.2 8.0 12.1
Equity capital (cr) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1
EPS (`) 3.7 5.6 (33.8) 7.9 9.6 (17.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research

Net sales up 8.7%, lower than expectations: For 2QFY2011, ARBL reported 8.7%
yoy growth in net sales to `393cr (`361cr), which was below our expectation.
Growth was aided by healthy double-digit volume growth from the auto battery
segment. In the industrial battery segment, while the UPS segment recorded
significant growth, demand for telecom batteries remain subdued, impacting the
company’s overall volume and realisation growth.

However, management is sanguine on the telecom side of its business, as a large


number of towers in the mobile telecom network has been established in the last
three-four years; and going ahead, batteries used in these towers would be due for
replacement. Emerging opportunities in the solar segment and increasing market
share in the UPS segment would help the division to further optimise its revenue
stream.

October 25, 2010 2


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Exhibit 2: Sales growth impacted by subdued telecom battery demand


(` cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%)
500 50
45.7
450
40
400
350 30.9 30
300
250 20
200
10.3 8.7 10
150
100 6.4
0
50 (2.9)
0 (10)
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Source: Company, Angel Research

EBITDA margins at 14.5%, down 909bp: During 2QFY2011, ARBL witnessed a


909bp yoy decline in EBITDA margins, owing to a substantial 777bp yoy increase
in raw-material costs, which accounted for around 63.7% of sales (55.9% in
2QFY2010). Raw-material costs were impacted, to a certain extent, by the increase
in average lead prices, which were up 6.1% yoy to US $2039/tonne. Margins were
also down due to lower realisation from the telecom battery segment. Thus,
subdued realisation from the segment affected operating margins, as industrial
batteries command higher margins for the company.

However, management believes current prices in the telecom battery segment are
unsustainable and expects to witness an increase in the next few quarters, though
the recent surge in lead price will impact margins to a certain extent in the short
term.

Exhibit 3: Average lead prices up 6.1% yoy Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin down substantially by 909bp
(US $/tonne) Lead inventory (RHS) Lead prices (LHS) (tonne) (%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales
4,500 250,000 80
4,000 66.2 66.7
70 64.1
200,000 60.4
3,500 56.4 56.1
60
3,000
150,000 50
2,500
2,000 40
100,000
1,500 30 23.6
18.9
1,000 50,000 14.4 14.7 13.9 14.5
20
500
10
0 0
0
Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep-
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research

Net profit down 33.8% yoy: ARBL reported a 33.8% yoy decline in net profit to
`31.6cr (`47.7cr) during the quarter. The decline was because of lower realisation
and subdued growth from the telecom battery segment. However, lower interest
cost and higher other income restricted the fall at the bottom line to a certain
extent during the quarter.

October 25, 2010 3


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Exhibit 5: Net profit down 33.8% yoy


(`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS) (%)
60 14

12.8 13.2 12
50 10.2
10
40 8.0 8.0 8.1
8
30
6
20
4
10 2

0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment arguments
„ ARBL is India’s second-largest manufacturer of lead batteries with a market
share of ~27%. US-based Johnson Controls is a joint venture partner of ARBL
and holds a 26% equity stake in the company. Automotive and industrial
batteries contribute 50% each to the total revenue of ARBL.

„ We expect the automotive battery market to post a ~21% CAGR in sales over
FY2010–12E, led by healthy growth in replacement demand, ~12% CAGR in
new vehicle sales and shrinking market share of unorganised players. Thus,
during FY2010–12E, we expect ARBL to post a 21.2% volume CAGR in the
automotive battery segment, leading to overall 19.3% revenue CAGR. Also,
with a strong focus on strengthening its distribution network, we expect ARBL to
increase its market share to ~29% by FY2013E.

„ ARBL pioneered the use of maintenance-free batteries with presence in the


railway signaling, telecom power and supply solutions segments. Going
forward, we expect the power backup (UPS/inverter) segment to drive demand
for industrial batteries, leading to an 11.1% CAGR in industrial revenue over
FY2010E–12E.

„ Supported by strong demand for automotive batteries, ARBL plans to increase


its two-wheeler and four-wheeler battery capacity by 100% and 21%,
respectively, by FY2011, incurring a capex of `85cr (`150cr overall capex).

October 25, 2010 4


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Outlook and valuation


We estimate ARBL to post a ~19.3% CAGR in its top line over FY2010–12E,
largely aided by substantial growth in auto battery volumes. However, net profit for
the period is estimated to grow lower at ~7% CAGR, largely due to lower
realisation from the telecom battery segment, impacting overall performance at the
operating front.

On the valuation front, ARBL is trading at 11.9x and 8.9x FY2011E and FY2012E
EPS, respectively. At present, ARBL is trading at ~45% discount to Exide (adjusted
for the insurance business). Although ARBL has always traded at a discount to
Exide (due to Exide’s leadership position, scale of operations, superior margins
and return ratios), ARBL is well placed to tap the rising demand from the
automobile and industrial segments with its innovative products, increased capacity
and widening reach. The discount commanded by ARBL compared to Exide would
reduce with a) increasing scale of operations, b) sustainable revenue and earnings
visibility and c) improving return ratios. We maintain Buy on ARBL with a
12-month Target Price of `251, representing a ~27% potential upside. At our
target price, the stock will trade at 11.3x (35% discount to Exide's multiple of
17.3x) FY2012E EPS of `22.2.

Exhibit 6: Key assumptions


Y/E March FY2010P FY2011E FY2012E
Volumes (‘000 units)
Automotive battery
Four-wheeler 3,318 3,774 4,386
Motorcycle/small VRLA 1,776 2,556 3,096
Industrial battery
Large VRLA (mn Ah) 622 630 675
Medium VRLA 1,221 1,548 1,848
Utilisation (%)
Automotive 81 83 86
Industrial 72 79 82
Revenue (` cr)
Automotive battery 846 1,137 1,382
Industrial battery 846 924 1,044
Large VRLA 507 504 540
Medium VRLA 338 420 504
Gross revenue 1,691 2,061 2,427
Source: Company, Angel Research

October 25, 2010 5


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Exhibit 7: ARBL – P/E Premium/Discount to Exide Exhibit 8: ARBL – EV/EBITDA Premium/Discount to Exide
(%) prem./ disc. to Exide Three-yr average Prem/Disc (%) Prem./ Disc. to Exide Three-yr average Prem/Disc
0 10 Five-yr average Prem/Disc
Five-yr average Prem/Disc
0
(20) (10)
(20)
(40)
(30)
(60) (40)
(50)
(80) (60)
(70)
(100) (80)
Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E band Exhibit 10: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
(`) Share price (`) 5x 8x 11x 14x (` cr) EV (` cr) 2x 5x 8x 11x
300 3,500

250 3,000

200 2,500
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50 500
0 0
Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Auto Ancillary – Recommendation summary


CMP Tgt. price Upside P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY10–12E EPS
Company Reco.
(`) (`) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E CAGR (%)
Amara Raja Buy 198 251 26.7 11.9 8.9 6.7 5.3 23.4 25.0 6.6
^
Automotive Axle Buy 503 578 15.0 15.2 13.1 7.5 6.3 26.2 25.8 145.5
Bharat Forge*& Accumulate 377 404 7.3 30.7 18.6 14.8 10.8 16.6 21.7 -
#
Bosch India Accumulate 6,129 6,766 10.4 23.7 19.4 14.3 11.6 22.5 23.0 37.2
Exide Industries Accumulate 157 174 11.2 19.6 17.3 11.3 9.3 25.4 25.0 19.7
#
FAG Bearings Accumulate 916 1,035 13.0 12.9 11.9 6.7 5.8 22.9 20.4 39.5
Motherson Sumi* Neutral 193 - - 23.1 17.2 9.7 8.0 26.3 31.6 34.4
Subros Buy 50 60 21.0 9.9 8.2 4.4 3.8 13.7 14.8 14.2
# ^ &
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; December year end; September year end; FY2011E and FY2012E EPS adjusted for
FCCB interest after tax

October 25, 2010 6


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Profit & Loss Statement


Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 745 1,350 1,579 1,691 2,061 2,427
Less: Excise duty 151 267 266 226 288 340
Net Sales 594 1,083 1,313 1,465 1,772 2,087
Total operating income 594 1,083 1,313 1,465 1,772 2,087
% chg 63.6 82.3 21.2 11.6 20.9 17.8
Total Expenditure 511 921 1,163 1,184 1,519 1,778
Net Raw Materials 376 722 888 889 1,195 1,410
Other Mfg costs 27 41 48 58 64 69
Personnel 27 41 52 62 69 79
Other 82 117 175 174 191 220
EBITDA 83 163 150 281 253 309
% chg 74.7 95.5 (7.4) 87.0 (10.1) 22.1
(% of Net Sales) 14.0 15.0 11.5 19.2 14.3 14.8
Depreciation & Amortisation 17 24 35 43 51 56
EBIT 66 138 116 238 202 253
% chg 101.1 108.8 (16.1) 105.7 (15.5) 25.5
(% of Net Sales) 11.1 12.7 8.8 16.3 11.4 12.1
Interest & other Charges 5 14 20 8 14 8
Other Income 10 22 27 24 25 29
(% of PBT) 14 15 22 9 12 11
Recurring PBT 71 146 123 255 213 274
% chg 90.8 105.0 (16.0) 107.6 (16.4) 29.0
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 71 146 123 255 213 274
Tax 24 52 42 88 70 85
(% of PBT) 33.9 35.3 34.4 34.4 33.1 30.9
PAT (reported) 47 94 81 167 142 190
ADJ. PAT 47 94 80 167 142 190
% chg 97.3 100.6 (14.7) 107.6 (14.8) 33.3
(% of Net Sales) 7.9 8.7 6.1 11.4 8.0 9.1
Basic EPS (`) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
% chg 97.3 100.6 (43.1) 107.6 (14.8) 33.3

October 25, 2010 7


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 11 11 17 17 17 17
Reserves & Surplus 232 322 389 527 656 831
Shareholders’ Funds 244 333 406 544 673 848
Total Loans 141 316 286 91 161 111
Deferred Tax Liability 14 17 18 22 22 15
Total Liabilities 398 666 710 656 856 974
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 258 311 427 491 611 696
Less: Acc. Depreciation 101 122 146 185 237 292
Net Block 157 189 281 306 374 403
Capital Work-in-Progress 6 66 40 23 31 35
Investments 16 16 47 16 21 29
Current Assets 350 575 526 631 793 905
Cash 26 51 70 62 137 147
Loans & Advances 86 103 87 109 124 141
Other 238 421 369 460 532 617
Current liabilities 131 179 184 319 363 397
Net Current Assets 219 396 342 312 429 507
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 398 666 710 656 856 974

Cash Flow Statement


Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 71 146 123 255 213 274
Depreciation 17 24 35 43 51 56
Change in Working Capital 84 142 (65) (0) 11 65
Less: Other income 165 270 (177) 12 22 136
Direct taxes paid 24 52 42 88 70 85
Cash Flow from Operations (17) (9) 227 198 183 174
(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (68) (112) (90) (47) (128) (89)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 16 (0) (31) 31 (5) (8)
(Inc.)/Dec. in loans & adv. (20) (8) 9 16 (93) (17)
Other income (3) (4) (13) (4) - -
Cash Flow from Investing (76) (125) (125) (4) (227) (113)
Issue of Equity - - 6 - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 100 176 (30) (195) 70 (50)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 5 5 8 8 29 13
Others (7) (21) (67) (15) 20 (14)
Cash Flow from Financing 98 159 (83) (202) 119 (51)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 5 26 19 (8) 75 10
Opening Cash balances 21 26 51 70 62 137
Closing Cash balances 26 51 70 62 137 147

October 25, 2010 8


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 24.0 12.0 21.0 10.1 11.9 8.9
P/CEPS 17.6 9.5 14.7 8.1 8.7 6.9
P/BV 4.6 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.8
EV/Sales 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
EV/EBITDA 21.5 11.9 12.4 6.1 6.7 5.3
EV / Total Assets 4.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.7
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
EPS (fully diluted) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
Cash EPS 11.2 20.9 13.5 24.6 22.7 28.7
DPS 0.7 1.2 0.8 2.9 1.3 1.5
Book Value 42.8 58.5 47.5 63.7 78.8 99.3
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 11.1 12.7 8.8 16.3 11.4 12.1
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8
ROIC (Post-tax) 15.7 18.7 12.8 26.7 21.2 23.4
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.4 4.1 4.4 2.8 7.5 4.0
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating ROE 15.7 18.7 12.8 26.7 21.2 23.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.3 26.0 16.8 34.9 26.7 27.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 18.6 23.1 19.6 41.3 28.9 31.7
ROE 21.1 32.7 21.8 35.2 23.4 25.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.7 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2
Inventory / Sales (days) 46 48 49 47 49 50
Receivables (days) 71 63 60 56 56 54
Payables (days) 43 30 30 35 39 39
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 88 91 86 65 56 57
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.4 0.7 0.4 - - -
Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 1.5 1.1 - - -
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 14.0 9.6 5.8 30.1 14.3 32.5

October 25, 2010 9


Amara Raja Batteries | 2QFY2011 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
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investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Amara Raja Batteries


1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

October 25, 2010 10

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