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Amara Raja Batteries: Performance Highlights
Amara Raja Batteries: Performance Highlights
Net sales up 8.7%, lower than expectations: For 2QFY2011, ARBL reported 8.7%
yoy growth in net sales to `393cr (`361cr), which was below our expectation.
Growth was aided by healthy double-digit volume growth from the auto battery
segment. In the industrial battery segment, while the UPS segment recorded
significant growth, demand for telecom batteries remain subdued, impacting the
company’s overall volume and realisation growth.
However, management believes current prices in the telecom battery segment are
unsustainable and expects to witness an increase in the next few quarters, though
the recent surge in lead price will impact margins to a certain extent in the short
term.
Exhibit 3: Average lead prices up 6.1% yoy Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin down substantially by 909bp
(US $/tonne) Lead inventory (RHS) Lead prices (LHS) (tonne) (%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales
4,500 250,000 80
4,000 66.2 66.7
70 64.1
200,000 60.4
3,500 56.4 56.1
60
3,000
150,000 50
2,500
2,000 40
100,000
1,500 30 23.6
18.9
1,000 50,000 14.4 14.7 13.9 14.5
20
500
10
0 0
0
Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep-
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Net profit down 33.8% yoy: ARBL reported a 33.8% yoy decline in net profit to
`31.6cr (`47.7cr) during the quarter. The decline was because of lower realisation
and subdued growth from the telecom battery segment. However, lower interest
cost and higher other income restricted the fall at the bottom line to a certain
extent during the quarter.
12.8 13.2 12
50 10.2
10
40 8.0 8.0 8.1
8
30
6
20
4
10 2
0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Investment arguments
ARBL is India’s second-largest manufacturer of lead batteries with a market
share of ~27%. US-based Johnson Controls is a joint venture partner of ARBL
and holds a 26% equity stake in the company. Automotive and industrial
batteries contribute 50% each to the total revenue of ARBL.
We expect the automotive battery market to post a ~21% CAGR in sales over
FY2010–12E, led by healthy growth in replacement demand, ~12% CAGR in
new vehicle sales and shrinking market share of unorganised players. Thus,
during FY2010–12E, we expect ARBL to post a 21.2% volume CAGR in the
automotive battery segment, leading to overall 19.3% revenue CAGR. Also,
with a strong focus on strengthening its distribution network, we expect ARBL to
increase its market share to ~29% by FY2013E.
On the valuation front, ARBL is trading at 11.9x and 8.9x FY2011E and FY2012E
EPS, respectively. At present, ARBL is trading at ~45% discount to Exide (adjusted
for the insurance business). Although ARBL has always traded at a discount to
Exide (due to Exide’s leadership position, scale of operations, superior margins
and return ratios), ARBL is well placed to tap the rising demand from the
automobile and industrial segments with its innovative products, increased capacity
and widening reach. The discount commanded by ARBL compared to Exide would
reduce with a) increasing scale of operations, b) sustainable revenue and earnings
visibility and c) improving return ratios. We maintain Buy on ARBL with a
12-month Target Price of `251, representing a ~27% potential upside. At our
target price, the stock will trade at 11.3x (35% discount to Exide's multiple of
17.3x) FY2012E EPS of `22.2.
Exhibit 7: ARBL – P/E Premium/Discount to Exide Exhibit 8: ARBL – EV/EBITDA Premium/Discount to Exide
(%) prem./ disc. to Exide Three-yr average Prem/Disc (%) Prem./ Disc. to Exide Three-yr average Prem/Disc
0 10 Five-yr average Prem/Disc
Five-yr average Prem/Disc
0
(20) (10)
(20)
(40)
(30)
(60) (40)
(50)
(80) (60)
(70)
(100) (80)
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E band Exhibit 10: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
(`) Share price (`) 5x 8x 11x 14x (` cr) EV (` cr) 2x 5x 8x 11x
300 3,500
250 3,000
200 2,500
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50 500
0 0
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 11 11 17 17 17 17
Reserves & Surplus 232 322 389 527 656 831
Shareholders’ Funds 244 333 406 544 673 848
Total Loans 141 316 286 91 161 111
Deferred Tax Liability 14 17 18 22 22 15
Total Liabilities 398 666 710 656 856 974
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 258 311 427 491 611 696
Less: Acc. Depreciation 101 122 146 185 237 292
Net Block 157 189 281 306 374 403
Capital Work-in-Progress 6 66 40 23 31 35
Investments 16 16 47 16 21 29
Current Assets 350 575 526 631 793 905
Cash 26 51 70 62 137 147
Loans & Advances 86 103 87 109 124 141
Other 238 421 369 460 532 617
Current liabilities 131 179 184 319 363 397
Net Current Assets 219 396 342 312 429 507
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 398 666 710 656 856 974
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 24.0 12.0 21.0 10.1 11.9 8.9
P/CEPS 17.6 9.5 14.7 8.1 8.7 6.9
P/BV 4.6 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.8
EV/Sales 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
EV/EBITDA 21.5 11.9 12.4 6.1 6.7 5.3
EV / Total Assets 4.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.7
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
EPS (fully diluted) 8.3 16.6 9.4 19.6 16.7 22.2
Cash EPS 11.2 20.9 13.5 24.6 22.7 28.7
DPS 0.7 1.2 0.8 2.9 1.3 1.5
Book Value 42.8 58.5 47.5 63.7 78.8 99.3
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 11.1 12.7 8.8 16.3 11.4 12.1
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8
ROIC (Post-tax) 15.7 18.7 12.8 26.7 21.2 23.4
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.4 4.1 4.4 2.8 7.5 4.0
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating ROE 15.7 18.7 12.8 26.7 21.2 23.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.3 26.0 16.8 34.9 26.7 27.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 18.6 23.1 19.6 41.3 28.9 31.7
ROE 21.1 32.7 21.8 35.2 23.4 25.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.7 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2
Inventory / Sales (days) 46 48 49 47 49 50
Receivables (days) 71 63 60 56 56 54
Payables (days) 43 30 30 35 39 39
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 88 91 86 65 56 57
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.4 0.7 0.4 - - -
Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 1.5 1.1 - - -
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 14.0 9.6 5.8 30.1 14.3 32.5
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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