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Cummins India Financial Model
Cummins India Financial Model
Financial Highlights
Year Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin
2012 411,722 1.8% 79,782 19.4%
2013 458,938 11.5% 99,252 21.6%
2014 397,667 -13.4% 87,444 22.0%
2015E 440,437 10.8% 96,564 21.9%
2016E 524,462 19.1% 126,133 24.1%
2017E 613,612 17.0% 150,335 24.5%
2018E 701,045 14.2% 177,014 25.3%
2019E 790,177 12.7% 213,348 27.0%
2020E 873,812 10.6% 235,929 27.0%
Adj. PAT Margin EPS P/E RoE
51,707 12.6% 18.7 47.6 26.9%
65,344 14.2% 23.6 37.6 29.5%
60,002 15.1% 21.6 41.0 24.2%
71,629 16.3% 25.8 34.3 26.0%
93,875 17.9% 33.9 26.2 29.6%
109,878 17.9% 39.6 22.4 30.1%
125,080 17.8% 45.1 19.7 29.7%
151,922 19.2% 54.8 16.2 30.9%
168,457 19.3% 60.8 14.6 29.2%
Peers Valuation
EPS 2015E (Rs.) Peer Multiple P/E 2015E (x)
25.8 45.9
Key Peers Mcap (Rs. Mn) P/E 2015E (x) P/E 2016E (x)
L&T 1,559,573 33.4 27.3
BHEL 569,801 27.2 20.3
Siemens 491,927 97.4 68.7
ABB India 254,428 80.3 56.1
Havells India 189,376 39.9 32.1
Thermax 128,451 44.9 34.1
Crompton Greaves 102,974 24.1 16.7
Kirloskar Oil 37,325 20.0 16.7
Cummins India 237,685 33.5 28.8
Source: Bloomberg
BHEL
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 8.9 6.6 13.9
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 565,863.1 370,975.9 388,444.6
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 5.1 3.4 5.8
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 629,400.4 433,225.2 479,852.0
Sales (Rs. Mn) 472,278.6 476,176.7 383,888.2
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 70,399.6 66,147.3 34,607.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.7 22.9 17.5
Profit Margin (%) 14.9 13.9 9.0
Return on Equity (%) 30.9 23.7 10.9
Dividend Yield %) 2.5 3.1 1.4
Price to Book Ratio (x) 2.5 1.4 1.5
Siemens
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 70.3 87.6 48.8
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 231,548.2 164,078.9 283,390.6
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 24.1 37.4 41.4
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 241,286.2 170,082.9 294,564.6
Sales (Rs. Mn) 129,199.0 113,526.0 106,626.0
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 3,432.0 1,940.0 6,032.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.5 3.9 6.4
Profit Margin (%) 2.7 1.7 5.7
Return on Equity (%) 8.8 4.9 14.4
Dividend Yield %) 0.9 1.1 0.7
Price to Book Ratio (x) 6.1 4.2 6.7
ABB India
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 108.1 82.0 119.5
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 151,019.3 149,967.6 274,451.9
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 39.4 30.1 49.4
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 148,494.8 146,916.1 273,001.6
Sales (Rs. Mn) 75,649.9 77,219.9 76,306.5
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 1,374.1 1,793.1 2,285.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.1 6.5 7.3
Profit Margin (%) 1.8 2.3 3.0
Return on Equity (%) 5.4 6.8 8.3
Dividend Yield %) 0.4 0.4 --
Price to Book Ratio (x) 5.7 5.5 9.7
Havells India
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 23.4 21.6 24.4
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 71,313.6 78,958.7 112,278.3
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 14.9 14.5 17.3
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 71,383.7 80,330.0 116,570.1
Sales (Rs. Mn) 36,156.1 42,249.9 47,196.9
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 3,054.3 3,713.9 4,786.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.2 12.9 13.8
Profit Margin (%) 8.5 8.8 10.1
Return on Equity (%) 20.7 21.4 23.9
Dividend Yield %) 1.1 1.2 1.6
Price to Book Ratio (x) 4.4 4.3 5.5
Thermax
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 13.6 19.2 35.2
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 50,429.8 60,957.6 81,517.3
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 8.4 11.8 17.9
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 55,348.1 67,156.5 89,152.7
Sales (Rs. Mn) 53,040.6 46,908.7 43,021.6
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 4,068.6 3,499.6 2,529.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.3 11.0 10.6
Profit Margin (%) 7.7 7.5 5.9
Return on Equity (%) 28.1 20.2 13.0
Dividend Yield %) 1.5 1.2 0.8
Price to Book Ratio (x) 3.5 3.6 4.4
Crompton Greaves
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 17.6 13.5 19.5
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 80,743.3 52,452.7 96,223.8
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 11.2 8.8 14.5
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 88,590.0 60,171.9 100,530.1
Sales (Rs. Mn) 64,853.8 71,353.0 74,895.7
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 5,048.6 4,458.4 5,210.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.1 8.3 8.9
Profit Margin (%) 7.8 6.3 7.0
Return on Equity (%) 20.2 15.5 16.3
Dividend Yield %) 1.0 1.3 0.8
Price to Book Ratio (x) 3.3 2.0 3.0
Kirloskar Oil
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 11.4 12.3 16.5
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 22,687.7 20,075.5 22,871.2
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 7.4 5.8 7.5
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 21,837.1 24,389.1 29,356.6
Sales (Rs. Mn) 22,755.5 23,196.5 22,869.6
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 1,918.0 1,988.4 1,784.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.5 15.0 13.4
Profit Margin (%) 8.4 8.6 7.8
Return on Equity (%) 20.0 18.2 14.7
Dividend Yield %) 2.7 3.0 2.5
Price to Book Ratio (x) 2.1 2.1 2.3
Cummins India
Price Earnings Ratio (x) 23.2 18.1 27.6
Enterprise Value (Rs. Mn) 130,049.1 129,219.5 160,396.1
Cur EV/T12EBITDA (x) 18.5 15.5 23.0
Market capitalization (Rs. Mn) 137,324.9 138,322.8 165,433.0
Sales (Rs. Mn) 40,521.7 45,893.8 39,766.7
Net Profit (loss) (Rs. Mn) 5,912.7 7,641.1 6,000.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.3 18.2 17.5
Profit Margin (%) 14.6 16.7 15.1
Return on Equity (%) 30.7 34.5 24.2
Dividend Yield %) 2.2 2.6 2.2
Price to Book Ratio (x) 6.7 5.8 6.5
Source: Bloomberg
Premium/(Discount) Value per Share (Rs.)
0.0% 1,186.0
2014A
EV/EBITDA 2015E (x) EV/EBITDA 2016E (x) RoE (%) Net Profit Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%)
23.6 19.7 17.5 9.7 12.2
17.2 13.1 10.9 9.0 17.5
51.6 39.5 14.4 5.7 6.4
36.2 28.3 8.3 3.0 7.3
25.3 21.6 23.9 10.1 13.8
26.5 20.8 13.0 5.9 10.6
14.2 11.5 16.3 7.0 8.9
11.0 8.8 14.7 7.8 13.4
31.1 25.4 24.2 15.1 17.5
25.7 20.4
Upside/Downside 24.5%
Computation of WACC
Share Capital 256,515
Total Debt -
Total 256,515
Exports
HHP 106,043 97,076 88,235 86,927 126,044
Growth -8.5% -9.1% -1.5% 45.0%
LHP - 22,000 38,800 35,000 50,750
Growth 76.4% -9.8% 45.0%
Total Exports 106,043 119,076 127,035 121,927 176,794
Growth 12.3% 6.7% -4.0% 45.0%
Number of Shares Outstanding (In Lacs) 2,772 2,772 2,772 2,772 2,772
Profit transferred to Reserve & Surplus 24,527 22,104 34,358 17,842 37,729
- - - - -
93,875 109,878 125,080 151,922 168,457 18.8%
17.9% 17.9% 17.8% 19.2% 19.3%
31.1% 17.0% 13.8% 21.5% 10.9%
33.87 39.64 45.12 54.81 60.77 18.8%
31.1% 17.0% 13.8% 21.5% 10.9%
- - - - -
Non-current Liabilities
Deferred Tax Liabilities (Net) - - 3,278 4,651 4,651
Long-term Liabilities 1,979 1,470 1,914 2,019 2,236
Long-term Provisions 10,048 10,065 12,935 11,709 10,860
Total Non-current Liabilities 12,027 11,535 18,127 18,379 17,747
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 56,943 51,662 54,934 48,511 55,387
Other Current Liabilities 11,084 15,165 20,346 18,567 22,155
Short-term Provisions 25,885 27,492 34,882 35,301 36,924
Total Current Liabilities 93,912 94,319 110,162 102,379 114,465
Current Assets
Current Investments 66,681 52,204 57,417 44,196 35,357
Inventories 51,896 56,761 53,035 55,134 57,602
Trade Receivables 71,816 67,834 85,499 78,203 82,054
Cash and Bank Balances 10,373 22,350 35,465 8,649 13,546
Short-term Loans and Advances 16,772 16,525 20,619 15,250 16,893
Other Current Assets 198 497 903 216 216
Total Current Assets 217,736 216,171 252,938 201,648 205,669
Current Liablities
Trade Payables 56,943 51,662 54,934 48,511 55,387
Other Current Liabilities 11,084 15,165 20,346 18,567 22,155
Short-term Provisions 25,885 27,492 34,882 35,301 36,924
Total Current Liabilities 93,912 94,319 110,162 102,379 114,465
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance 40,546 43,006 45,990 50,044 54,301
Depreciation charge during the year 3,182 3,982 4,514 5,053 6,773
Deductions 722 998 460 796 959
Closing Balance 43,006 45,990 50,044 54,301 60,115
89% 94% 68% 66%
Depreciation Rate 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.0%
Net Block
Opening 28,149 34,825 45,895 48,958 91,752
Closing 34,825 45,895 48,958 91,752 132,478
Intangible Assets
Opening Balance 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145
Additions - - - - -
Deductions - - - - -
Closing Balance 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145
Accumulated Amortisation
Opening Balance 3,851 4,333 4,549 4,760 4,982
Amortisation charge during the year 482 216 211 222 163
Deductions - - - - -
Closing Balance 4,333 4,549 4,760 4,982 5,145
Net Block
Opening 1,294 812 596 385 163
Closing 812 596 385 163 -
Capital Work-in-progress
Capital Work-in-progress 6,467 4,967 12,079 9,576 10,570
- - - - -
- - - - -
12,587 13,499 14,722 15,804 17,476
Cash Flow during the Year 11,977 13,115 -26,816 4,897 12,706
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) 43,811 63,715 22,003 38,016 72,831
Capital Employed 181,965 203,208 247,866 280,698 313,221
- - - -
- - - -
-58,375 -64,862 -71,348 -77,834
-552 -561 -632 -699
-58,928 -65,422 -71,980 -78,533
Basic and Diluted Earnings per Share (Rs.) 6.51 5.81 12.32 8.44 20.76
Growth
Number of Shares Outstanding (In Lacs) 2,772 2,772 2,772 2,772 2,772
Q4 2013 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 H1 2014 Q3 2014 9M 2014 Q4 2014 FY 2014
115,428 458,939 104,933 93,271 198,204 102,301 300,505 97,162 397,667
-16.6% -14.2% -15.5% -6.1% -12.5% -15.8% -13.4%
5.9% -9.1% -11.1% 9.7% -5.0%
Domestic
Powergen Segment 330
Industrial Segment 140
Distribution Segment 230
Automotive Segment 40
Export
LHP export 90
HHP 186
Misc 13
Total 1,041 1,068 1,071 1,128 4,308 1,029
`
Source: Cummins India call transcript
2014 2015
2Q 3Q 4Q FY 1Q 2Q 3Q 9M 15 9M 14
612 720 617 2,702 643 633 667 1,943 2,085
302 280 339 1,197 390 484 390 1,264 858
914 1,000 956 3,899 1,033 1,117 1,057 3,207 2,943
-10.2%
-7.1%
-1.1%
-16.7%
45.4%
48.1%
-8.7%
Key Ratios
Details 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Key Financial Metrics
Growth
Revenue 1.8% 11.5% -13.4% 10.8% 19.1%
Gross Profit 0.7% 15.6% -8.8% 10.1% 20.6%
EBITDA -5.4% 24.4% -11.9% 10.4% 30.6%
EBIT -6.4% 25.1% -13.1% 9.1% 31.5%
PAT -12.5% 26.4% -8.2% 19.4% 31.1%
EPS -12.5% 26.4% -8.2% 19.4% 31.1%
Profitability
Gross Profit Margin 35.7% 37.1% 39.0% 38.8% 39.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4% 21.6% 22.0% 21.9% 24.1%
EBIT Margin 18.4% 20.6% 20.7% 20.3% 22.5%
PAT Margin 12.6% 14.2% 15.1% 16.3% 17.9%
RoCE 26.9% 29.5% 24.2% 26.0% 29.6%
RoE 26.9% 29.5% 24.2% 26.0% 29.6%
Valuation
P/E (x) 47.6 37.6 41.0 34.3 26.2
P/B (x) 12.0 10.3 9.6 8.4 7.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.2 24.3 27.5 24.9 19.1
EV/Sales (x) 5.8 5.2 6.1 5.5 4.6
Dividend yield 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Per Share
Adjusted EPS 18.7 23.6 21.6 25.8 33.9
BV/Share 73.7 86.1 92.5 106.1 122.5
Cash/Share 8.1 12.8 3.1 4.9 9.5
Dividend / Share 11.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 15.0
Efficiency
Tax Rate 28.3% 27.3% 26.6% 18.0% 20.0%
Asset turnover (x) 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.5
Inventory (days) 78.3 67.0 83.0 78.0 75.0
Debtor (days) 60.1 68.0 71.8 68.0 65.0
Payables (days) 71.3 69.4 73.0 75.0 75.0
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 67.2 65.6 81.8 71.0 65.0
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Capacity
Power Generation Business Unit Plant (Pirangut)
A facility for the Power Generation Business was inaugurated at MIDC Specimatured capacity of 51,000 units by 2016
Power Generation Business Unit Plant (Pirangut)
Phaltan Midrange Engine Upfit Center This facility will have an annual capacity of 24,000 engines
Engine Business Unit Plants (Kothrud and Pune - Nagar Road)
Distribution Business Unit Plants (Erandwane, Pune and HHP Rebuild Center, Phaltan
India Parts Distribution Center (Phaltan