PREDICTION OF DISASTERS

• A prediction is a statement about the

way things will happen in the future.

• The more predictable the event, the

fewer the loss occurs.

• Certain events are known to occur in

certain areas.
Predicting Catastrophe

•Forecasting/Warning

•Recurrence Interval

•Precursor Events
 Forecasting/Warning
•Based on linear projections of past
experiences, forecasts can be made
which indicate that a future
hazardous event will occur in a
certain area within a given span of
time with an approximate
percentage of probability.
 Recurrence Interval
• Statistical prediction based past data over a long period.

• Defined as the expected time interval between a hazard of a

given magnitude.

• It is a statistical probability that a natural event of a

particular size will happen within a certain period of time.

• Attempts to predict when a natural disaster of a given

magnitude most likely will occur.
•Estimations of recurrence intervals
are made by plotting a graph of each
event size versus the time interval
between sequential individual events.

•Plotting on a logarithmic scale leads

to a st. line graph that can be
extrapolated if needed.
 Precursor Events
•Some natural Disasters are directly related
to or the direct consequence of another
event.

•Sometimes major natural disasters are

preceded by a series of smaller precursor
events which may warn of the impending
disaster.
ADJUSTMENTS TO HAZARDS
•Potential adjustments - the options available
are

• Corrective (or remedial) measures and

• Preventative measures
•Corrective measures for:-

•Reducing river flood losses include flood

control schemes
•dams and reservoirs,
•channel improvements and
•watershed land-use changes etc.,

•Evacuation, flood forecasting and urban

redevelopment.
•Preventative measures include

•Floodplain regulation (such as by

zoning land-use),

•Tax adjustments and

•Flood insurance schemes.

•Second distinction is between
adjusting nature (technological
measures) and adjusting people
(behavioural or structural
measures).
 (A) Modify the cause of the hazard.
• Cloud-seeding can reduce the velocity of hazardous hurricanes
and thus influence the location of intense rainstorms.

• Orchards can be heated to prevent frost from cold air.

• Seismic stresses in some fault zones can be reduced by

pumping down a lubricating fluid to prevent high- intensity
movements.

• Planned land-use changes and integrated watershed

management can be used to modify flood hazard potential.
 (B) Modify vulnerability to the hazard
• Engineering measures

• Retaining walls to stabilise unstable hillslopes.

• Sea-wave barriers to protect threatened coastlines, and
• Flood control dams to protect settlements downstream.

• Pile foundations and extra reinforcement of walls and floors

are common in earthquake-affected cities.

• Hazard loss potential can also be reduced through

• Early-warning systems,
• Emergency evacuation procedures,
• Adoption of appropriate building designs and conventions,
• Planned land-use changes or
• Permanent evacuation of threatened sites.
 (C) Redistribute the losses
• Hazards are common, and loss and damage (to people and property)
occurs whether or not it has been possible to minimize vulnerability.

• Burdens - particularly to finances, resources and lifestyle - are much more

tolerable if they are shared broadly.

• Public relief and subsidized insurance schemes seek to spread losses from
the people directly involved in a hazard event over a wider group of policy
holders and tax payers.

• Insurance and reserve fund schemes are also often available - the "pay
now, suffer later" principle. In other cases, responsibility for bearing
losses falls on the individual, who may or may not have sufficient reserves
to cope with the hazard losses.
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 INTRODUCTION
•A landslide is a downward or outward
movement of soil, rock or vegetation, under
the influence of gravity.

•Resisting forces prevent the mass from sliding

down the slope.

•The resisting forces can significantly reduced

in case of rain or earthquake vibrations.
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• Three distinct physical events occur during a landslide: the initial slope
failure, the subsequent transport, and the final deposition of the slide
materials.

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• The speed of the movement may range from very slow to rapid.
• The speed of the landslide will make an even more or less avoidable and
therefore, more or less risky.
• It is important to distinguish the different types of landslides to be able to
understand how to deal with each of them.

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 Common types of LANDSLIDES
a) Rotational slides move along a surface of rupture that is
curved and concave.

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b) Translational slides occurs when the failure surface is
approximately flat or slightly undulated.

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c) Rock Fall: Free falling of detached bodies of
bedrock (boulders) from a cliff or steep slope

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d) Rock toppling occurs when one or more rock
units rotate about their base and Collapse.

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e) Lateral spreading occurs when the soil mass
spreads laterally and this spreading comes with
tensional cracks in the soil mass.

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f) Debris Flow:
Down slope movement of collapsed,
unconsolidated material typically along a
stream channel.

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