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Abstract— Education can be utilized as a tool to face many mathematics is very serious, since they provide fundamental
problems, overcome many hurdles in life. The knowledge obtained knowledge for the success in the remaining school subjects. An
from education helps to enhance opportunities in one’s educational institution needs to maintain the records of all the
employment development. To extract useful information from the students which results in a large databases. For an instance
knowledge obtained, Educational Data Mining is widely used.
useful information like, how many students will give equal
Educational data mining provides the process of applying
different data mining tools and techniques to analyze and visualize importance to all subjects and what type of courses can be used
the data of an institution (school) and can be used to discover a to attract students? Is it possible to predict students’
unique pattern of students’ academic performance and behavior. performance? What are the factors that affect students’
The present work intends to enhance students’ academic performance? etc., can be extracted from the collected stored
performance in secondary school using data mining techniques. records. To mine such type of information, an interest in
Real data was collected using school reports and questionnaire business intelligence and data mining techniques arose due to
method by the Portugal school which has been used in this paper. information technology, leading to exponential growth of
Naïve Bayesian algorithm can be easily implemented to predict the databases. The database contains valuable information such as
students’ academic performance and behavior. Classification of
trends, patterns to improve decision making and optimizing the
students into two classes, pass and fail, involves training phase and
testing phase. In training phase, Naïve Bayes classifier is built and success rate. Data mining is used to extract relevant information
in the testing phase, Naïve Bayes classifier is used to make the from large database to gain knowledge [1]. There are different
prediction. The accuracy of the classifier is calculated using data mining techniques for analysis, classification and
WEKA tool in which confusion matrix is generated. The accuracy prediction to improve student performance [2]. Classification is
of the classifier obtained is 87% which can be further improved by a supervised learning which is used to classify the data-set
the selection of appropriate attributes. Developing the based on predefined class labels. There are different data
classification algorithms in this way helps to obtain a more mining techniques that can be used to build classification model
efficient student performance predictor tool using other data (SVM, Naïve Bayes and Decision Tree etc.) [3]. Alternative is
mining algorithms and it also helps to improve the quality of
used to analyze the raw data using automated tools and extract
education in an educational institution.
knowledge for decision maker.
Keywords—Educational Data Mining, Naïve Bayes Classifier,
WEKA II. LITERATURE REVIEW
I. INTRODUCTION In several studies, Association rule based DM approach has
addressed input variables such as sex, age and performance
Education plays an important role in the development of the over past years and the proposed system has outperformed
country and a key factor for achieving long term economic traditional allocation procedure. They have used many
progress. The Statistics of literacy shows the percentage of approach such as neural networks and decision tree (94%
failure rates due to, dropping out from the schools and student combined accuracy), binary classification (72% accuracy) [4].
failing in a particular subject. For an example during the The best result was obtained by Naïve Bayes classification. The
secondary examination held in Portugal in the year 2010, total authors adopted regression approach to predict math skills
of 60% students passed and rest of the students failed. There is based on score obtained by individuals. Most of the students
an increase in the literacy rate throughout the world from the join the public schools for free education. There were some core
past years. In particular, failure in the core class such as courses which share a common language like in other countries.
III. MOTIVATION
Fig. 1 The details of a student which forms the data-set
This study aims to firstly implement an automated system
which just requires the data-set of students, and then the system
classifies the students automatically into two classes which are V. PROPOSED SYSTEM
pass and fail reducing the human work. Secondly, building
classification algorithms on educational environments helps to
identify the students who need special tutoring or counseling
from the school. The higher authorities of an institution can use
such classification models to improve students’ performance
according to the data-set. The proposed system predicts
students’ academic performance and the factors which affect
performance failure.
Building such classifiers helps an educational institution to
get the picture of their educational level, can compare their
progress with other educational institutions and finally, guide
Fig. 2 Steps involved in proposed system
students for their better future.
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International Conference on Computing, Communication and Automation (ICCCA2017)
another class label, fail, labelled as 0. All these steps come table called frequency table is constructed for each feature
under the training phase. The testing data-set is given as an (attribute) against a particular class. Then the frequency tables
input to the built classifier for the prediction. The Naïve Bayes obtained are converted into probability tables and Naïve
algorithm, first classifies the students into two classes. Those Bayesian (Eq. 1) is used to calculate posterior probability for
two classes are pass and fail. Naïve Bayes classification is each class. The outcome of this computation is the class with the
discussed in the Section VI. This classification is performed on highest posterior probability. A student will be added to the class
the training data-set. Training is done to predict whether the which has the highest posterior probability. The same criteria is
student will pass or fail and also to predict the other attributes followed to classify all the students. The Laplacian correction or
Laplacian smoothening is carried out to avoid computing
of a student which describes a students’ social behaviour. Later,
probability values of zero [7]. In the pre-processing step,
by using this model, prediction is made whether a student will
categorical information will be converted into binary form, so
pass or fail and also prediction is made for any attribute given normal distributions are assumed. Two parameters, mean and
the other remaining attributes (predicting social behavior). standard deviation are used to find the probability density
Prediction made by the classifier is discussed in the Section VII. function for normal distribution. The equations to calculate the
Furthermore, the classifier accuracy is calculated using the mean, standard deviation and normal distribution are as follows
confusion matrix.
Mean (μ)= ∑
(2)
VI. NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFICATION
where, is an attribute value
Classification is a process which involves separation of Standard deviation () = [ ∑
( −
) ]0.5 (3)
classes based on extracted features. After the classification,
classes formed will be distinct from each other. Different classes Normal distribution,
will have different features. The patterns found in the training
data-set plays an important role to build the classifier. There are ()
many classification algorithms like k-nearest neighbors, f(x)= (4)
√
decision tree learning, support vector machine, naïve bayes and
neural networks which can be used according to the where, x is an attribute value, μ is the mean and is the standard
requirements of an application. In the proposed system, Naïve deviation.
Bayes classifier is used. Naïve Bayes classifiers are statistical These all steps are performed before the testing phase. In the
classifiers. Given a tuple, this classifier can predict to which testing phase, separate data-set is given as an input. Using the
particular class a tuple belongs to. A Naïve Bayesian classifier Eq. 1, probability density is calculated. The classifier assigns or
is based on Bayes theorem [6] [8]. predicts a student belonging to pass (class label assigned as 1
Bayes theorem provides a way of calculating the posterior during pre-processing) or fail (class label assigned as 0 during
probability, P(c|x), from P(c), P(x) and P(x|c). Naïve Bayes pre-processing) class depending on the value of posterior
classifier assumes that the effect of the value of a predictor (x) probability. The student is assigned to that class which has more
on a given class (c) is independent of the values of other value of probability density. This part classifies and predicts the
predictors. This assumption is called class conditional student into two classes, pass or fail only. These classifiers also
independence. Bayes theorem is given by exhibit high speed when applied to large databases. The
accuracy of this classifier is found to be nearly comparable with
(|)()
the decision tree and neural networks.
P(c|x) = (1)
()
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IX. CONCLUSION
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International Conference on Computing, Communication and Automation (ICCCA2017)
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