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Energy
EnergyProcedia 157
Procedia 00(2019)
(2017)1029–1036
000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,
Technologies and Materials for Renewable
19–21 Energy,
September 2018,Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,
Athens, Greece
19–21 September 2018, Athens, Greece
Model of a wind turbine using discrete events
Model
The of a windSymposium
15th International turbine on
using discrete
District events
Heating and Cooling
Stefany Garciaa, Jorge Herrera a,b,*, Andrés Julián Aristizábala, Mónica Castañedaa,
Assessing
Stefany the
Garciaa, Jorgefeasibility
Herrera
Sebastian of
andusing
Zapata, aAndrés
a,b,*
the
Julián
Julián heat demand-outdoor
Aristizábal , Mónica Castañedaa,
a b
Pelaez-Restrepo
Sebastian Zapataa and Julián Pelaez-Restrepob
temperature
Department offunction
a
b a
for adelong-term
Engineering, Universidad district
Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, heat
Cr. 4 22-61, demand
Bogotá forecast
110311, Colombia
Electronic Engineering
Department Program,Universidad
of Engineering, Instituto Tenológico
de BogotáMetropolitano , Calle 54A
Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Cr. No. 30 - 01,
4 22-61, Medellin
Bogotá 050012
110311, Colombia
Colombia
b
Electronic Engineering
a,b,c Program, Instituto
a Tenológico
a Metropolitano , Calle
b 54A No. 30 - 01, Medellin
c 050012 Colombia c
I. Andrić *, A. Pina , P. Ferrão , J. Fournier ., B. Lacarrière , O. Le Corre
Abstract
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Abstract b
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
This paper presentsc the model of a wind turbine using SimEvents, the discrete-event simulator from Matlab. The advantage of this
Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France
proposal
This paperis presents
that different windofprofiles
the model a windcan be generated
turbine by usingthe
using SimEvents, thediscrete-event
time series representing the wind
simulator from dynamics.
Matlab. The adequate
The advantage of this
functioning
proposal is that of the model wind
different is corroborated
profiles can using the k and by
be generated c parameters of Weibull
using the time distribution. As
series representing the awind
result, the power
dynamics. profiles
The for
adequate
the years 2000
functioning to 2013
of the modelareis obtained.
corroborated Suchusing
simulator
the k andallows to find theofwind
c parameters potential
Weibull when knowing
distribution. the time
As a result, series of
the power the wind
profiles for
speeds.
the years 2000 to 2013 are obtained. Such simulator allows to find the wind potential when knowing the time series of the wind
Abstract
speeds.
©District
2018 The Authors.
heating Published
networks by Elsevier addressed
are commonly Ltd. in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the
© 2019
This is anThe Authors.
open Published by Elsevier Ltd.
©greenhouse
2018 The gasaccess
Authors. articlefrom
Published
emissions under
by the CC BY-NC-ND
theElsevier
building Ltd.
sector. These license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of and
the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
This
sales.is an
Due opento access
the article
changed under
climate the CC BY-NC-ND
conditions license
building renovation
committee ofpolicies, heat demand
Technologies in thefor
and Materials future could decrease,
Renewable Energy,
Environment
Selection
prolonging and and
the Sustainability,
peer-review
investment under
return
Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18. TMREES18.
responsibility
period. of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,
Environment
The main scope and of
Sustainability,
this paper is TMREES18.
to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand
forecast. Wind
Keywords: turbine, discrete
The district model, SimEvents,
of Alvalade, located in Weibull
Lisbondistribution.
(Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665
buildings Wind
Keywords: turbine,
that vary in discrete model, SimEvents,
both construction periodWeibull distribution.
and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
1.compared
Introduction
with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
1.TheIntroduction
results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
(theAserrortimein goes
annualby, modern
demand wassocieties
lower than need
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after introducingInrenovation
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the growth compared
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to the previous
their population. In year,
2012, in
The value the
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significant increased
increase
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in demand average thewithin
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demand during
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In recent (depending
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combination bythe
of of country
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increased scenarios
[2]. considered).
mainly due On the other
to the hand,offunction
building intercept increased
new hydroelectric powerfor plants,
7.8-12.7% per decadeby
encouraged (depending on the
private sector
coupled scenarios).
investment [2]. The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open
1876-6102 access
© 2018 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC BY-NC-ND
Published license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review
Selection under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and and
This is an and
openpeer-review under
access article responsibility
under of the scientific
the CC BY-NC-ND licensecommittee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Energy, Environment
Cooling.
Sustainability, TMREES18.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and
Sustainability, TMREES18.
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1876-6102 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,
Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.
10.1016/j.egypro.2018.11.270
1030 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036
2 S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

However, hydroelectric power plants present a problem. Their efficiency is directly proportional to the level of
the reservoir, causing a very low efficiency when reservoir levels are low. This becomes a vicious circle as the power
generation system is clearly reduced. Besides, this risk has increased given that, according to recent analyzes, it is
predicted that vulnerability to drought will grow significantly in Colombia due to climate change, which could be
reflected in the cost of energy.

Energy security is affected by climatic variability phenomena such as El Niño - Oscillation of the South (ENSO),
reducing the generation potential due to the decrease or lack of the resource. The ENSO is a rise of the sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) above the average, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, during which the low-level
surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, weaken or, in some cases, begin to blow in
the other direction. The first large-scale ENSO was recorded between 1997 and May 1998. It was defined as 'El Niño
of the century' as it brought with it many extreme weather patterns and unusual weather around the world. This
phenomenon can have cycles of between 3 and 7 years and causes extreme droughts in different regions of the
country, affecting negatively the natural physical environment, and the social and economic contexts of the nation.
For instance, in 1992, the country had to suffer its most recent energy shortage which forced it into energy rationing
for 9 months and the creation of public policies such as “la hora Gaviria” or the change in schedule.

As a consequence, the use of alternative energies has become of great relevance since it is expected to supply the
electricity demand when there is reduced rain or drought [9]. In Colombia, due to its geographic location, there is a
great variety of natural resources (water, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass) that can be exploited for the
production of clean energy, named Unconventional Sources of Renewable Energy (USRE). These energies are
considered complex given their use and distribution, due to uncontrollable variables such as storage, distribution,
efficiency and secondary applications [11]. Although, in Colombia, goals have been set to include USRE in the
National Interconnected System (NIS), these have not been met, owing to the lack of appropriate instruments that
allow for the use of such energy sources.

Some of the barriers to implementing the USRE are the subsidies that promote conventional energy, high costs
and financial difficulties, market barriers, rules adjusted to conventional sources, imperfect competition, lack of
qualified human capital, transaction costs, limited research and knowledge, inadequate infrastructure, and finally,
lack of information about renewable resources.

This article intends to provide a tool to measure the potential of the winds, having the time series of wind speeds
as input. For this, the SimEvents program is used, which has the advantage of simulating both continuous and
discrete events. This advantage is very relevant in this type of systems where some variables are continuous such as
wind speed, but others are discrete as the number of turbines. Furthermore, this paper presents a wind simulator using
SimEvents software. For this part wind profiles awarded by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and
Environmental Studies - IDEAM were taken into account. The data used to build the model is the information
corresponding to the average monthly wind speeds from the year 2000 to 2013.

In order to validate the results obtained, the power of the wind is calculated using Weibull distribution, which
allows satisfactory estimates of the asymmetry of the probability density distribution. To do this, the scale parameter
(k), which defines how scattered the distribution is, and the parameter (c), which describes the shape of the
distribution, are determined [8, 10].
The wind turbine chosen for the development of this investigation was the Enercon 44 whose technical
specifications are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Characteristics of the wind turbine Enercon 44. Source: Enercon.

Power 900 kW
Diameter 44
Number of blades 3
Power density 1.69 m2/kW
Minimum rotor speed 1.675 rad/s
Maximum rotor speed 3.612rad/s
Minimum wind speed 3 m/s
Rated wind speed 17 m/s
Maximum wind speed 25 m/s
 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036 1031
S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

The document is organized as follows: Section 2 contains a bibliographic review about the needs of the country
and how important it is to identify the energy potential it has in order to include renewable energies in its energy
matrix. The hypothesis of this research project was proposed based on this need. Section 3 presents the model
development and the obtained results. Section 4 presents conclusions.

2. Problem formulation

Climatic variability phenomena generate frequent anomalies in rainfall that impact society and different productive
sectors [4]. One of the most representative climatic variability phenomena is the ENSO. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has monitored the years in which the occurrence of ENSO has been detected
since 1950, which allows for the evaluation of the frequency of such phenomenon.

Colombia, due to its geographic location, is directly influenced by the effects of the interaction between the ocean
and the atmosphere of the tropical Pacific, associated with the ENSO. In that sense, Colombia has had to cope with
the effects of the different phenomena that have occurred. These effects include high temperatures, droughts, forest
fires, decrease in river waterflow, rationing and partial or total shortage of potable water, among others. The
productive sectors of the country are highly affected by these climatic factors. For this reason, several studies and
investigations have been carried out in Colombia in order to identify the consequences of this phenomenon [3,7].

As a result, Colombia has been exposed to great difficulties in meeting the national energy demands in periods of
occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon [5], given that hydroelectric power plants are the main energy generation
source, accounting for approximately 70% of the total energy production. In 1992, there was an energy crisis that
forced to country to enter periods of electric power rationing. The crisis, caused by the ENSO phenomenon, took
place during the government of president César Gaviria, between May 2, 1992 and February 7, 1993.

A similar crisis was experienced between 2015 and 2016, caused by the decrease in the country's electricity supply
capacity due to the ENSO phenomenon, given that this phenomenon caused droughts that affected the levels of the
hydroelectric power reservoirs, also resulting in increased costs to meet the country's demand [6]. Thus, the
government launched the "Turning-off Pays" campaign, which aimed to reduce the consumption of energy in order to
supply the population with the stored energy during the drought season.

Consequently, the nation must stop relying solely on hydroelectric power to meet the demanded energy. This is not
only due to climatic variability phenomena but also due to the growing demand for energy that the country faces,
which is linked to population growth. The use and development of renewable energy can be the alternative to achieve
energy security in the country.

Renewable energy provides diverse benefits, compared to fossil fuels. This type of energy is considered
sustainable since it generates low CO2 emissions, causing a minimum impact on the environment. Besides, it creates
employment and brings economic benefits, especially in rural areas. Finally, as a result of the diversity of energy
sources, increased independence and greater energy security are achieved [1]. In 2014, 17% of the world's electricity
was produced using renewable sources and this figure is projected to grow to 42% by 2040. By 2015, renewable
energy provided approximately 19.2% of global energy consumption. A large number of new renewable energy
projects are installed in developing countries, with China being the largest developer of renewable energy and heat in
the last eight years. In 2016, renewable energies accounted for approximately 62% of net additions to global power
generation capacity. These facts are evidence of the global intention to guarantee energy security through renewable
energies.

Wind energy is a source of renewable energy, which has spread rapidly worldwide in recent years. It is considered
the fastest growing renewable energy in the last 10 years, growing from 48 GW in 2004 to 318 GW 2013, with an
average growth rate of 21% in the last 5 years. Fig. 1 shows the increase in installed capacity worldwide from 2006 to
2016 in GW.
1032 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036
4 S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

Fig. 1. Global wind energy capacity. Source: Authors.

In Latin America, the most representative countries, in terms of their installed capacity, are Peru (148 MW),
Panama (220 MW), Chile (836 MW), Mexico (2.3 GW), and Brazil (5.9 GW), while Colombia has 19.5 MW
connected to the NIS.

Therefore, Colombia must take part and identify the wind potential that it has as a country, in order to introduce wind
energy to the national generation matrix in a more forceful and participative way. That is why in this document we
intend to develop a model with the capacity to evaluate the wind potential of an area and thus identify if it is feasible
and appropriate to implement a project whose power source are wind speeds.

3. Proposed model using SimEvents

For the development of the model, the average monthly data of the wind speeds of station 15065010-APTO ALM
PADILLA of the department LA GUAJIRA, regional Magdalena, were used. A total of 132 measurements were
loaded corresponding to the years between 2000 and 2013, except for 2005, 2010 and 2011 given that the average
monthly speeds presented in these periods did not exceed 3 m / s, implying that the defined wind turbine would not
have any output power. In Table 2 you can see the data which the model was provided with.

Table 2. Average monthly speeds taken for the development of the model. Source: Authors.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013
2,6 3,5 3,8 3,1 5,1 3 3,7 5,6 3,1 3 3,2
3,1 5 4,1 4 6,3 3,6 3,4 4,8 3,4 3,3 3,6
3,4 3,5 4,4 3,8 5,6 3,7 3,1 6,3 3,3 3,7 3,4
3,8 4 3,9 3,2 5,6 3 2,9 5,5 3,7 2,8 2,7
3,6 2,8 4,3 4,3 3,8 2,4 2,1 4,3 2,7 2,9 3,6
4,9 4,4 3,9 4,1 4,5 2,9 3,1 6 2,8 3,4 3,3
4,3 4 4,5 4,5 3,5 3,7 3,6 6,5 4,2 3,9 4,2
3,9 3,8 4 3,7 3,7 2,6 5,2 4,8 3,6 2,7 2,5
2,4 3,1 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,5 4 4,7 2,8 2,6 2,3
2,6 2,8 2,7 2,1 2,4 2,4 3,8 4 2,7 2 2,1
2,7 2,4 3,2 2,2 2,2 2,2 3,7 4,2 2,5 2 2,1
3,1 2,6 3,8 2,5 2,4 2,8 4,4 4,3 3,2 3,2 3,1

The model is developed by a wind generator function. This function is obtained from the output potential of the
established wind turbine, it is taken up to 10 m / s, since the data did not show speeds greater than this one. The
powers are shown in the Table 3.
 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036 1033
S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

Table 3. Power supplied by the Enercon E44 wind turbine. Source: Enercon.
wind [m/s]  Power P [kW]  Power coefficient Cp [‐] 
1  0  0 
2  0  0 
3  4  0,16 
4  20  0,34 
5  50  0,43 
6  96  0,48 
7  156  0,49 
8  238  0,50 
9  340  0,50 
10  466  0,50 

Fig. 2. Distribution of the powers supplied by wind turbine E44. Source: Enercon.

The behavior of the power was modeled using a least squares regression and Eq. (1) was obtained. This function
is programmed to be a Weibull distribution function, which effectively represents the probability distribution. This
function is the following:

‫ ݕ‬ൌ Ͳǡ͵͸Ͳͳ‫ ݔ‬ଷ  ൅ ʹǡͲͻͷ͸‫ ݔ‬ଶ  െ ͳͳǡ͵ʹͷ‫ ݔ‬൅ ͻǡ͸͸͸͹Ǥሺͳሻ

The SimEvents simulator offers a discrete event simulation engine and a component library to analyze system
models driven by events and optimize performance characteristics. For the development of the model, the data is
loaded in the In Data box, which enters the defined function (Eq. (1)) conditioned by time (programmed for event
signal) and months. Once it leaves the box of the function, it is conditioned by the defined attributes and enters the
function defined for the wind-generating turbine which allows to obtain the wind speeds (Graph Wind 1) and the
output powers (Graph Wind 2). ). Then, the model is compiled and the output power data (Output Power) is obtained.
Fig. 2 shows the model created using SimEvents.

Fig. 3. Simevents Model to evaluate the wind potential. Source: Authors.

1034 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036
6 S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

4. Simulation results

The output power obtained when compiling the developed model with respect to the wind profile that occurred, for
the sample conditions of the results is shown in Figures 4, 5 and 6.

2003
5
30.0 4.5
4
20.0 3.5
10.0 3
2.5 Output power
KWh

0.0 2

Novemb…
Septem…
April
May

August
June

December
January
February
March

October
July
Wind profile

Month

Fig. 4. Graphical representation of the results obtained by the model for the year 2003. Source: Authors.

2008
120.0 8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
70.0 5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 Output power
KWh

20.0 2
Novemb…
Septem…
April
May

August
June
January
February
March

October

December
July

Wind profile

Month

Fig. 5. Graphical representation of the results obtained by the model for the year 2008. Source: Authors.

2013
30.0 5
20.0 4
3
10.0 2
1 Output power
KWh

0.0 0
Septemb…
April
May

August

November
June

December
January
February
March

October
July

Wind profile

Month

Fig. 6. Graphical representation of the results obtained by the model for the year 2013. Source: Authors.

4.1 Validation of results with weibull

In order to corroborate the correct running of the function, we carried out the following experiment: taking the data
by year, the following recursive algorithm was used to obtain the parameters (k) and (c).
 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036 1035
S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 7

��
∑� �
��� 𝑣𝑣� 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙�𝑣𝑣� � ∑�
��� 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙�𝑣𝑣� �
��� � � � � �������������
∑��� 𝑣𝑣� 𝑁𝑁

� ���
1
� � � � 𝑣𝑣�� � ���������������
𝑁𝑁
���
For this, the maximum probability (MP) method is used, which uses numerical iterations to define the parameters
of the Weibull distribution function, and is determined by the following equations:

When applying the iterative algorithm (2) and (3) the following parameters are obtained (Table 4):

Table 4. Parameters identified by Weibull for the years of study. Source: Authors.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013
k 4,84 5,00 8,66 4,97 3,25 6,15 5,10 6,61 6,75 6,03 5,29
c 3,67 3,80 4,01 3,66 4,46 3,12 3,89 5,45 3,38 3,19 3,27

With the scale and shape parameters defined for each year, the wind potentials are calculated and compared with
the results obtained through the SimEvents model, obtaining the following percentages of difference (Table 5):

Table 5. Percentages of difference found in model validation. Source: Authors.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013
Difference % 5,4% 5,4% 2,0% 0,3% 0,4% 7,8% 2,9% 0,9% 8,9% 5,1% 2,8%
Difference KWh/year 5931 6874 3117 346 1186 3080 4095 4692 5862 2391 1678

Acknowledgements

This work was partially supported by Instituto Tecnologico Metropolitano under grant P14105 “Identificación,
modelado y control de una turbina de viento por MPPT”.

Conclusions

Colombia is a country by virtue of its geographical location has great energy opportunities given the availability
of natural resources. However, it is a priority as a country to recognize the capacities both in quantity of the sources
of energy generation and in the opportunities of exploitation to which it currently has access. This is why the nation
must concentrate on quantifying and evaluating the opportunities of generating energy through renewable sources and
thus, reduce the uncertainty and limited generation capacity caused by relying on hydroelectric power plants whose
effectiveness may be highly influenced by ENSO phenomenon.

The most common methodology for evaluating the wind potential of a geographic area is through the Weibull
probability distribution. Still, to develop such a distribution it is necessary to identify the parameters of scale and
shape (k) and (c) and in some cases this may require a lot of time. Hence, in this project we develop a model in the
simulator SimEvents of Matlab to obtain the wind potential using as only input the time series of wind speeds.

During the evaluation of results, it was identified that if the wind speeds are less than or equal to the minimum
speed at which the turbine can generate power, the results are very different to those that can be obtained by
performing the exercise by means of the Weibull probability distribution. This allowed us to conclude that the model
must discriminate these speeds and contemplate either only higher speeds or define a wind turbine that contemplates
these speeds.

Lastly, it is important to note that when validating the model by developing the evaluation of wind potential using
Weibull, the results have a difference percentage of less than 10%, which we considered to be an acceptable value
given that average monthly data of wind speeds were used. We speculate that when using hourly or daily data, the
1036 Stefany Garcia et al. / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 1029–1036
8 S. García et. al/ Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

difference percentage will be certainly less.

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