NAÏVE MODEL

PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR

1 21 24.457
2 25 25.247
3 29 22.826
4 21 21.986
5 25 20.306
6 20 18.945
7 18 19.224
8 21 18.448
9 20 16.563
10 19 13.792
11 18 9.250
12 15 2.500
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
 WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE
1 21
2 25
3 29
4 21 26.33 -5.33 5.33 28.44
5 25 24.33 0.67 0.67 0.44
6 20 24.33 -4.33 4.33 18.78
7 18 21.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69
8 21 19.83 1.17 1.17 1.36
9 20 19.83 0.17 0.17 0.03
10 19 20.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00
11 18 19.67 -1.67 1.67 2.78
12 15 18.67 -3.67 3.67 13.44
16.67 80.97
PERCENTAGE ERROR Absolute Percentage Error

-0.25 0.25
0.03 0.03
-0.22 0.22
-0.21 0.21
0.06 0.06
0.01 0.01
-0.05 0.05
-0.09 0.09
-0.24 0.24
-0.98 0.98
PERIOD A.DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR ABS.FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR
1 35
2 37
3 38
4 40 37.17 2.83 2.83 8.03 7%
5 35 38.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69 -11%
6 32 37.17 -5.17 5.17 26.69 -16%
7 39 34.33 4.67 4.67 21.78 12%
8 42 36.00 6.00 6.00 36.00 14%
9 39 39.33 -0.33 0.33 0.11 -1%
10 36 40.00 -4.00 4.00 16.00 -11%
11 42 38.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 10%
12 39 39.50 -0.50 0.50 0.25 -1%
340.33 3.67 31.33 139.56 3%
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR

7%
11%
16%
12%
14%
1%
11%
10%
1%
83%