POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 25TH MARCH 2019, 6 AM PST

UltraPoll - British Columbia

Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
25th March 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on a survey
conducted between March 20th to 21st 2019
among a sample of 923 adults, 18 years of age or
older, living in British Columbia. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from commerical available
sources and random digit dialing. The part of
the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in
British Columbia; Greater Vancouver, Vancouver
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the
additional question of what region of the country
they resided in.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.23%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BC NDP WIDEN THEIR LEAD OVER BC LIBERALS

25 March 2019 (Vancouver, BC) – The governing British Columbia NDP have extended their lead
over the BC Liberals and would be close to winning a majority if an election were held today.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 923 British Columbians between March 20th and 21st 2019. The poll has a
margin of error of +/- 3.23% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“This is the first time that we have seen some distance between the NDP and the BC Liberals beyond
the margin of error,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“The good news continues for John Horgan after the NDP win in the Nanaimo by-election as both his
favourability numbers and his party numbers are up since the beginning of the year.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the governing NDP led by John Horgan lead with 39% support
(+2% from Mainstreet’s January poll), while the opposition Liberals with Andrew Wilkinson at the
helm have 32.4% (-2.5%). The BC Green Party with Andrew Weaver as leader have 13.3% (-1.3%),
while the BC Conservatives with interim leader Scott Anderson have 12.1% (-0.9%).

“Usually when a government is being propped up by a third party in a minority situation, they siphon
off support from that third party,” added Maggi.

“It happened when the Ontario NDP after they propped up the Liberals in 1985. It happened when
Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrats went from coalition partner to being decimated in the 2015 UK
general election, and it’s now happening to Andrew Weaver.”

The poll also found that Horgan remains the only leader that has a positive favourability rating among
all the party leaders, in line with Mainstreet’s January poll. However, his net rating has improved
while the favourability ratings of Weaver and Wilkinson have dropped.

Horgan has a +6.3% favourability rating, while Wilkinson has a -10.1% rating. Weaver has a rating of
-5.9%, while Anderson has a rating of -2.6%.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

14.9%

2.8% 33.9%

10.2%

All Voters

11.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
26.7%

8.2%
3.3%
1.3%
12.1%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
10.2%
31.5%
Another Party Undecided

39%

13.3%
All Voters
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters

34.2%
32.4%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

39%
32.4%
13.3%
All

12.1%
3.3%

40.9%
Vancouver CMA

35.8%
10.6%
9.4%
3.3%

47.8%
Vancouver Island

15.9%
22.9%
10%
3.3%

30.3%
36%
BC Interior

12.3%
18.1%
3.3%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

Another Party
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
ohn Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

16.9%

25.9%

35.2%
39.1%

John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

10% 27%

ndrew Weaver John Horgan Scott Anderson

28.9% 17%

9.5% 7.5%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
20.7%
10.1%

32.8%
35%

26.4% 43.5%

Andrew Weaver John Horgan Scott Anderson

26.6%
38.9%

17.6%
31.3%

Favourable Unfavourable NotFavourable

familiar Unfavourable
Not sure Not Sure
Favourable Not Familiar
Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 33.9% 32.1% 35.6% 35% 34.1% 32% 34.7% 34.5% 43.8% 26.9%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 26.7% 29.8% 23.7% 19.9% 27.7% 28.3% 32.1% 29.7% 14% 28.9%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 11.5% 10.2% 12.7% 12.8% 10.2% 13.5% 8.7% 8.9% 20.7% 10.5%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 10.2% 11% 9.5% 8% 12.1% 9.8% 11.2% 8.3% 7.5% 15.1%
Another Party 2.8% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
Undecided 14.9% 13.5% 16.3% 21.1% 12.6% 13.6% 11.4% 15.7% 11.2% 15.7%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 37% 34.7% 39.1% 39.7% 37.2% 34.1% 36.8% 38.7% 45.7% 28.6%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 30.7% 33.4% 28.1% 25.6% 32.1% 30.4% 35.9% 34% 15.3% 34%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 12.5% 11% 14.1% 14% 10.6% 15.1% 9.5% 10% 21.8% 11.6%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 11.5% 11.9% 11.1% 10.7% 12.9% 10.2% 12.6% 9% 9.6% 17.1%
Another Party 3.1% 4% 2.2% 3.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
Undecided 5.2% 5% 5.4% 6.2% 3.5% 7.5% 2.9% 5.3% 4.4% 5.5%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 39% 36.6% 41.3% 42.3% 38.5% 36.9% 38% 40.9% 47.8% 30.3%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 32.4% 35% 29.8% 27.3% 33.3% 32.9% 36.9% 35.8% 15.9% 36%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 13.3% 11.6% 14.9% 14.9% 11% 16.3% 9.8% 10.6% 22.9% 12.3%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 12.1% 12.6% 11.7% 11.4% 13.4% 11% 13% 9.4% 10% 18.1%
Another Party 3.3% 4.2% 2.4% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Unweighted Frequency 878 484 394 151 208 251 268 415 151 312
Weighted Frequency 878 432 446 236 214 242 186 462 155 261
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 35.2% 33.7% 36.7% 30.9% 36.1% 36.4% 38.3% 36% 49.8% 25.3%
Unfavourable 28.9% 33.1% 24.8% 20.7% 31.9% 34.6% 28.2% 30.1% 17.1% 33.7%
Not Familiar with John Horgan 10% 8.8% 11.1% 17.2% 6.6% 6.6% 9% 8.1% 6.7% 15.2%
Not Sure 25.9% 24.4% 27.4% 31.2% 25.3% 22.4% 24.5% 25.9% 26.4% 25.7%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Wilkinson?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 16.9% 16.1% 17.7% 9.2% 21.3% 20.1% 17.5% 18.9% 14.6% 14.7%
Unfavourable 27% 30.9% 23.3% 24.7% 28.7% 27.3% 27.8% 27.5% 32% 23.2%
Not Familiar with Andrew Wilkinson 17% 16.8% 17.1% 28.2% 13.7% 11.3% 13.7% 15.9% 16% 19.4%
Not Sure 39.1% 36.2% 41.9% 37.9% 36.3% 41.2% 41% 37.6% 37.4% 42.7%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 20.7% 20.4% 21.1% 17.6% 24.6% 21% 19.8% 20.8% 28.9% 15.8%
Unfavourable 26.6% 32.9% 20.6% 17.1% 28.4% 31.1% 31% 26.6% 29.3% 25.2%
Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver 17.6% 16.6% 18.6% 27.7% 11.8% 14.8% 15.1% 16.8% 13.1% 21.8%
Not Sure 35% 30.2% 39.6% 37.5% 35.2% 33.1% 34% 35.9% 28.8% 37.2%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 7.5% 9.7% 5.4% 6.3% 10.4% 8.3% 4.8% 6% 7.1% 10.5%
Unfavourable 10.1% 12.1% 8.1% 7% 11.4% 13.3% 8.2% 11.2% 10.8% 7.7%
Not Familiar with Scott Anderson 38.9% 37.7% 40.1% 44.2% 32.7% 37.6% 41.3% 40.1% 40.7% 35.8%
Not Sure 43.5% 40.5% 46.4% 42.5% 45.5% 40.9% 45.8% 42.8% 41.4% 46%
Unweighted Frequency 923 506 417 161 216 270 276 437 158 328
Weighted Frequency 923 454 468 248 225 255 195 486 163 274
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Favourable opinion
which party would you vote for? Unfavourable opinion
British Columbia New Democratic Party Not sure
led by John Horgan Not familiar with Andrew Wilkinson
British Columbia Liberal Party led by
Andrew Wilkinson Do you have a favourable or
Green Party of British Columbia led by unfavourable opinion of Andrew
Andrew Weaver Weaver?
British Columbia Conservative Party led Favourable opinion
by Scott Anderson Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Andrew Weaver

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or

towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of Scott
who were undecided in previous Anderson?
question) Favourable opinion
British Columbia New Democratic Party Unfavourable opinion
led by John Horgan Not sure
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Not familiar with Scott Anderson
Andrew Wilkinson
Green Party of British Columbia led by What is your gender?
Andrew Weaver Male
British Columbia Conservative Party led Female
by Scott Anderson
Another Party What is your age group?
Undecided 18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
(the order of the next four questions 50 to 64 years of age
were randomized) 65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with John Horgan

Do you have a favourable or

unfavourable opinion of Andrew
Wilkinson?
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March 20th to March
21st 2019 among a sample of 923 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of British
Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked
the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents were
dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact
with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the second survey except the
survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the
field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for
adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.23% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each
subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.36%, Females: +/- 4.8%, 18-34
age group: +/- 7.72%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.67%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.96%, 65+ age group: +/-
5.9%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 4.69%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.8%, BC Interior: +/- 5.41%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.