I N D I A N I N S T I T U T E O F R E M O T E S E N S I N G, D E H R A D U N

Global carbon cycle &

climate change: An
overview
Dr. Arijit Roy
Scientist SF, Forestry and Ecology Department
arijitroy@iirs.gov.in

1
2/28/2017
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Global Warming???

WHY THE
GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE
RISE?

“….global warming is very likely man-made (or

anthropogenic).”
 The Fourth Assessment Report of the
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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Global Warming: Proofs

“Warming of the
climate system is
unequivocal, as is
now evident from
observations of
increases in global
average air and
ocean temperatures,
widespread melting
of snow and ice and
rising global average
sea level.”
IPCC report 2007, synthesis, p. 30
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Evidence of Climate Change

Glaciers melting

1909

Toboggan 1858 1974

Glacier Grindelwald Glacier
Alaska Switzerland

2000

1900 2003
Alpine glacier, Austria
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CO2 concentration vs Temperature

Temperature anomaly and carbon dioxide

concentration (ppm) over the years
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IPCC AR4

 Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment

Report (AR4)

 The 4 SRES
scenario

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC AR4 2007

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Glacial- Interglacial Ice core data

Source: IPCC AR4

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Global Mean Radiative Forcing

IPCC AR4, 2007

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IPCC AR5: Concept

 Measure of net change in energy balance in

response to an external perturbation
 External perturbation can be caused by changes in
atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere
 New concept to AR5: Effective RF (ERF)
 Accounts for rapid response in the climate system
 Definition: change in net downward flux at TOA after
allowing atmospheric temperature, water vapor,
clouds and land albedo to adjust
 This also involves feedback
 either amplify (+ feedback) or diminish (- feedback) effects of a
change in climate forcing (Le Treut et al., 2007)
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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

 are four greenhouse gas concentration (not

emissions) trajectories
 depending on how much greenhouse gases are
emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs,
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named
after a possible range of radiative forcing values
in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values
(+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2,
respectively).
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Historical and projected total anthropogenic RF (W/m2)

relative to ~ 1765 (preindustrial) between 1950 and 2100

Since AR4, the incorporation of „long-term‟ paleoclimate simulations in the CMIP5 framework has allowed
incorporation of information from paleoclimate data to inform projections.
IPCC AR5, 2011
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In effect:

 global climate is changing

 fossil fuel use plays a large role in driving
climate change.
 This is resulting in:
 The Greenhouse Effect
 Increase in Greenhouse Gasses
 Disruption of the Carbon Cycle
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Global Terrestrial Carbon Stock

Ruesch and Gibbs, 2008

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Terrestrial Carbon stock in India

Reddy et al. 2016

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Carbon Cycle: Definition

 Carbon cycle: The exchange

of carbon between its four main reservoirs—the
atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and
sediments.

Source: IPCC AR4

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What is Carbon

 Carbon is an element. ‘C’

 It can bond with oxygen and form Carbon Dioxide or
‘CO2’. CO2 is found in the atmosphere (and the air
around us).
 C can dissolve in water and bond with other molecules
to form liquid compounds such as carbonic acid.
 C also bonds with other carbon molecules to form
numerous compounds, for example sugars and
carbohydrates, that are a part of all living organisms.
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Importance of carbon

 Carbon can be in the form of a gas (in the atmosphere),

a liquid (in oceans) and a solid (in all living things on
land, and in some rock formations).

 Carbon forms the backbone of the biology of all life on

earth. All plants and animals on land and in the water
use carbon as a basic building block. To date, no life
has been observed that is not carbon-based.

 Carbon illustrates the interconnection of all organisms on

earth, and their connection to the atmosphere and
waters of the planet.
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Carbon Cycle
 Carbon is a part of the biogeochemical cycling of
elements that interconnects the land, the air,
and the waters
 This is coupled with the other biogeochemical
cycles such
Fossil
CO2
 Nitrogen Fuel burning

 Phosphorous Anaerobic
photosynthesis
processes
Simple C cycle
 Water
Uptake
Soil by
plants
circular pathway
death/
and has no clear Living assimilation
decomposition
start and finish matter
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Carbon Cycling on the land: Plants and Soil

 Carbon moves in and

out of plants and soil
as CO2

 Photosynthesis in
plant leaves

 Respiration in plant
leaves, roots, and soil
 Releases CO2
 CO2 is produced in Soils have microbes that
metabolism and the extra
is released decompose plant material when it
falls to the ground. Microbes are
alive and they respire as part of
their metabolism.
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Increase in atmospheric CO2: Direct

measurement
 Since the 1970s the
concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere is being
measured in Mauna Loa,
Hawaii. Concentration is
measured in ppm (parts
per million).
 CO2 has increased from an
average of about 325 ppm
in 1970 to an average of
about 385 ppm in 2008
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Atmospheric CO2 increase: Ice core

studies
 Apart from direct observation ‘proxy record’ is also available

 Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that atmospheric CO2

concentrations stayed between about 200 and 290 ppm during the preceding
400,000 years.

Source IPCC AR 5
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Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget

2000-2006
fossil fuel
emissions 7.6
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.5
atmospheric
CO2 4.1
Sink

land
2.8
ocean 2.2

Time (y)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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Anthropogenic C Emissions

Fossil-fuel-related CO2 emissions reached 32 (±2.7) GtCO2/yr, in 2010, and

grew further by about 3% between 2010 and 2011

IPCCAR5
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Anthropogenic C Emissions from LULCC

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Global C emission between 2000-2006 1.5 Pg C y-1

Source: Houghton, 1999.

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Economy driven Carbon emission

Direct and indirect
production of CO2 per
sector
Photo: CSIRO

https://rwer.wordpress.com/2015/05/09/production-of
greenhouse-gas-and-global-warming-the-sectoral-
cumulative-carbon-emission-budget-view/

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

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Population growth & Carbon Intensity

1.5 1.5
1.4 World 1.4
1.3 1.3
Factor (relative to 1990)

1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.8 FEmissions
(emissions) 0.8
0.7 PPopulation
(population) 0.7
0.6 gWealth
= G/P = per capita GDP
0.6
hCarbon
= F/G intensity of GDP
0.5 0.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1980
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
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Efficiency of Natural Sinks: Land and

Ocean Fractions

Only half of CO2 produced by

human activities over the past
Land
30 years has remained in the
atmosphere.

•Where are the sinks?

Ocean
•Will this continue?

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

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Measuring Carbon Flux

 in-situ measurement
 Flux towers
 Standing stock
 Soil C pools

 Space based measurement

 (OCO CO2)
 SIF

Eg. GOSat; OCO-2

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Carbon Flux studies in India

Young Forest Plantations
Haldwani

Mean Monthly Diurnal NEE

Soil and Vegetation flux studies

As part of National Carbon Project

At present there are 8 flux towers in

different representative vegetation tye Source: FED, IIRS Carbon Project
formations in Indian landscape
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Space based CO2 measurement

Can help answer questions about Earth's carbon cycle
Identify the missing sinks and stock
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Sun induced flurosence

Schematic diagram of the
distribution of solar energy
incident on a green leaf
Source: Smorenburg et al. 2002

SIF from OCO2

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Advantages of space based C measurement

• Space-based atmospheric carbon monitoring

system
• Global coverage (land and ocean)
• high spatial resolution (4o x 5o)
• weekly to monthly time scales
• High measurement precision
• Column CO2 measurement precision
(~1ppm (0.3% of 370 ppm)
• Resolve East-West gradients as well
as interhemispheric gradients in CO2
• Advanced Modeling tools used to retrieve
• CO2 column amounts from observations
• Sources and sinks from global CO2 maps
• Correlative Measurement Program
• Validation, bias removal, diurnal cycles 45
• Laboratory Measurements

Coverage in Each 16-Day Repeat Cycle

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Advances in Climate Modelling

IPCC AR4, 2007

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Capabilities of global climate models

Continuing increase in horizontal and vertical

resolution; especially evident in refined ocean
grids below

--> Representation of Earth System processes are

much more expensive and improved, particularly
for the radiation and the aerosol cloud interactions
and for the treatment of the cryosphere
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Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Arneth et al, 2014, Nature Climate Change

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Contact Details of the Faculty:

Email- arijitroy@iirs.gov.in
Tel- +91-7579073212