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Pulwama Eyewash: The Tribune
Pulwama Eyewash: The Tribune
me/TheHindu_Zone_official
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poor who are just above the poverty
LAYING an all-too-familiar tape, Pakistan has claimed that no JAYSHREE SENGUPTA
line. Rahul Gandhi’s promise of giv-
terror camps exist on 22 ‘pin locations’ shared by India. A month SENIOR FELLOW, OBSERVER ing Rs 6,000 per month to the very
after India handed over a dossier with details of Jaish-e- RESEARCH FOUNDATION
poor, therefore, has an appeal. Aspira-
Mohammed’s (JeM’s) complicity in the Pulwama attack and the pres- tions are high on the other hand due
M
ence of JeM terror camps and its leadership in the neighbouring coun- ANY may not have been to the increased use of mobile
try, Pakistan says it has found no evidence to prosecute 50-odd persons aware that the Interna- phones, Internet and social media,
who were detained in connection with the February 14 terror strike. For tional Day of Happiness but fulfilment of desires is scarce.
the record, these suspects had included JeM chief Masood Azhar’s son was on March 20 and the How does this happiness index
and brother. After having denied access to the media to the area where 7th Annual World Happiness Report translate into the voting pattern in
the Balakot airstrikes took place on February 26, Pakistan has finally was released by the Sustainable NOTHING TO CHEER: While India’s GDP has doubled in the last decade, the the upcoming elections? A one-
expressed willingness to allow visits — on request — to the locations. Development Solutions Network of average happiness has gone down. point increase in life satisfaction is
These spots have in all probability been duly ‘sanitised’ over the past the UN. The day was fixed by the UN associated with 2 per cent increase
General Assembly in 2012. The in propensity to vote. As per the
month. Indian investigators are not likely to find even a shred of cred-
founder was UN adviser Jayme Illien,
People are happy when they have secure jobs, a regular report, happier people are not only
ible proof there, as sought by the wily neighbour.
Though these are ‘preliminary’ findings, India can’t expect the
an orphan rescued from the streets of flow of income and know justice will be meted out. more likely to engage in politics, but
Kolkata by Mother Teresa’s Interna- also are more likely to vote for
outcome to change once the investigation is complete. If Pakistan is tional Mission of Hope Charities. He In India, there is no such guarantee. incumbent parties. And the incum-
sincere about taking its purported counter-terror operations to their was adopted and educated by an bent parties generally receive the
logical conclusion, it should throw open the doors of its seminaries, American woman, Anna Belle Illien. highest vote share the more buoyant
some of which are notorious as breeding grounds for terrorists. This The happiness report is based on GDP per person and happiness food and water safety. People are the election year economy.
should have been done right after the Pulwama outrage. The reluc- data from 156 countries about ‘how move in opposite directions. insecure about their health because In the case of India’s economy, no
tance has undone Pakistan’s efforts, already half-hearted, to convince happy their citizens perceive them- In the world, however, most happy the question of treatment cost one can say it is stagnant. Yet there are
the international community about its intentions to tackle terror. selves to be’. The happiness index countries are also high income coun- plagues their minds. many points of dissatisfaction. The
Amid the jingoistic din raised by a section of the media, credible ranks countries on the basis of tries. Finland is the happiest coun- There is no doubt that social secu- legal system is clogged. Those engaged
journalists with an unbiased approach could have shown the true questions from the World Gallup try followed by other Nordic coun- rity and the welfare state of Scandi- in agriculture are unhappy about unre-
picture to the world, but they were denied the opportunity. Creating Poll. The results are correlated to tries — Norway, Sweden, Denmark navian countries and the EU have a munerative prices and low incomes.
income, healthy life, longevity, gen- and Iceland, and the Netherlands, big role to play in raising the level of Due to the stressed banking system,
a smokescreen has laid bare Pakistan’s agenda to shield the perpe-
erosity, freedom, social support and Switzerland, New Zealand, Austria people’s happiness. If people are investment remains low, resulting in
trators of the Pulwama attack, for which the JeM had promptly
absence of corruption. and Canada. But many more vari- covered by a social safety net, they declining corporate profits.
claimed responsibility. India can go on providing evidence to Pak- While India’s GDP has doubled in ables could have been added to have little to worry about healthcare, Lack of adequate affordable hous-
istan, but it will all be like water off a duck’s back. The fact that the last decade, its average happi- make the index more weighty. education, unemployment or old- ing is making millions of slum
Pakistan has laughably identified ‘social media content’ as the ness has gone down by about 1.2 In India, why are people less hap- age pension. dwellers unhappy. Lives of people in
basis for India’s documents makes it obvious that this probe is points, according to the report’s hap- py today than five years ago? Look- People are happy when they have the informal sector engaging 90 per
being stage-managed by the deep state. piness index. PM Modi promised ing around big cities like Delhi, secure jobs and a regular flow of cent of the labour force are not happy
achhe din five years ago, but have there are ample reasons for people income. They are happy to see jus- due to job insecurity and dismal work
they come by? feeling hassled and unhappy. Even tice being meted out. In India, we conditions. Industrial growth is lack-
India’s rank, according to the hap- the report admits there has been an are witnessing robber barons get- lustre and hence the rise in unem-
S
PARE the rod and spoil’is a concept that may appear to work well er, is paradoxical. like rapid urbanisation and conges- sums of money from public sector of job opportunities and rising prices.
for the judiciary when it comes to preserving its dignity. But the Even when people are relatively tion in cities, environmental pollu- banks, ordinary people felt very Replacement of humans by machin-
judicial hammer of correction needs to fall sparingly, and as a better off than before, why has their tion and problems of commute. unhappy and angry. ery, AI and automation is taking
last resort, while exercising contempt jurisdiction to punish people happiness not increased? Clearly, People worry on many fronts, espe- Growing inequality and seeing the place, rendering rural people as well
blamed for obstructing the administration of justice or lowering the the correlation between happiness cially when bringing up children in rich and famous having fancy wed- as urban unskilled labour jobless.
esteem of the court. The Supreme Court, by slapping a suspended and wealth is weak. According to big cities. There is the big question dings and lavish parties at home and All these are adding to the problems
three-month jail sentence on a lawyer for committing contempt by the report of the 125 countries for of law and order and safety regard- abroad do make people unhappy. of the common people, detracting
launching a personal attack on judges, exercised an established right which good data exist, 43 have seen ing women. There are worries about Scandinavian countries and Holland them from the quest for happiness.
that, undoubtedly, has the scope to act as a deterrent.
Indeed, the courts are guardians of the Constitution, and their own
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thought for the day letters to the editor
Happiness is a place between too much and too little.
Keep it positive transport helicopters like Chinook, has taken stock of the archaic Looking for gains
— Finnish proverb It is unfortunate that nowadays which our defence forces need so provision and upheld the fact that Raghuram Rajan’s statement
everything is viewed with political badly. We are spending billions of all individuals are born equal ‘ Willing to return, open to oppor-
eyes. Pulwama killings, defence dollars in procuring such strategic (editorial ‘Caste aside’; March tunities, says Rajan’ (March 28),
action, defence equipment pro- military hardware. Moreover, it takes 28). The HC has not only put an at this juncture, when India is in
on this day...100 years ago curement, and now the latest anti- a long time in finalising the purchase end to the colonial practice, but election mode, smacks of oppor-
satellite capability, are all being deals and in receiving the supplies. also has provided wings to the tunism. Moreover, his averments
given a political colour by claims Such deals also invariably generate judiciary to ensure the funda- allude to his proximity to a partic-
and disclaims by politicians. unsavoury political heat, alluding mental right to justice and digni- ular political group, which if
These are not the signs of a vibrant corruption charges and counter- ty of every individual during trial. returned to power, may install
democracy and not in the national charges. Wouldn’t it be prudent to This will give birth to a caste-free him at the top financial post in
lahore, saturday, march 29, 1919
interest. The ongoing electioneer- use the DRDO in such projects era, especially in the judicial sys- the government. Mr Rajan has,
ing atmosphere is being vitiated rather than chest-thumping on tem of our country. proverbially, struck now when the
Mr Gandhi’s Reply. by undesirable utterances of politi- rarely usable ASATs? AAYUSHI, MUKERIAN iron is hot. His eminence as a
IT is a matter of common knowledge that one of the grounds on which the cians. We need positivity, not criti- KIRAN SHARMA, SUNDERNAGAR world-class economist has suf-
passive resistance movement has been condemned is that it will prove futile. cism at every step. Let there be an fered a dent and is going to be
Government, it has been said, will leave the handful of Satyagrahis alone and not attitudinal change by choosing to Fix the zoo irreparable this time.
make martyrs of them. In his message to a Madras meeting, Mr. Gandhi gives an appreciate for the good of society. Caste is barred The middle ‘Patiala Zoo symbol NEERAJ KISHORE, SUNDERNAGAR
appropriate reply:—“There is here in my humble opinion if Satyagrahis are left Kudos to the DRDO and ISRO for Apropos the editorial ‘Caste of state apathy’ (March 28) is fac-
alone, they will have won a complete victory because they will have succeeded in the ‘space shot’. aside’ (March 28), not only is the tual and shocking. Barren cages
disregarding the Rowlatt Bills and even other laws of the country, and in having JS JASSAL, PATIALA caste of the complainant or the and malnourished animals signify Value the elderly
thus shown that a civil disobedience of a Government is held perfectly harmless accused irrelevant to investiga- the apathetic state in which they Apropos the editorial ‘Showing a
by it. I regard the statement as an unwarranted assumption of fact because it tion, but also hampers the process are confined to survive. Zoo is path’ (March 25), it is, indeed,
contemplates the restriction of the movement only to a handful of men and DRDO can do more by potentially influencing offi- considered to be an educative painful that tall and senior leaders
women. My experience of Satyagraha is that it is such a potent force that once set Apropos ‘Satellite shot down, PM cials, and hence the outcome. Fur- place meant for appreciation and like LK Advani and Murli
in motion it ever spreads till it becomes a dominant factor in the community in hails India’s arrival as space power’ thermore, in most states, deep- protection of wild animals, espe- Manohar Joshi have been side-
which it is brought into play. No Government can neglect it.” (March 28), it is a landmark achieve- rooted casteism still remains alive cially endangered species. It is an lined by denying them ticket.
ment that India has acquired an anti- in the system, which can rightly enriched habitat for exotic ani- Their contributions to the BJP
Quite Characteristic. satellite weapon system, and has be attributed to the practice of mals that has entertainment and cannot be ignored, even though
IT is characteristic of Lord Willingdon that while professing his own doubtless entered an exclusive group. such archaic provisions. educational value. What an irony they have aged, which is not their
sincere belief in self-government for India, he should have said at the farewell Undoubtedly, our scientists and VARUN DAS, ZIRAKPUR that the zoo in the royal city is in fault. I am reminded of a verse of
reception by the Indian Social Club in London that he believed that no engineers in the DRDO are among a shambles. The authorities Wasim Barelvi: Dekhna kahin
Englishman in India was anxious to keep India from attaining her goal. We the best in the world. But one fails to should ensure that the conditions saath na chhoot jaye in buzargon
would respectfully remind his lordship that the millennium has not come yet understand why such an organisa- HC shows the way at zoos are the best possible for ka/ Patte paedon pe lage rahen to
and that a racial generalisation is not the less fallacious because, unlike the tion is not being tasked the job to In a commendable move, the the confined animals. hare rehte hain.
usual run of such generalisations, it sees only the bright and not the seamy make fighter jets like Rafale and Punjab and Haryana High Court ANITA KATARIA, PATIALA MS TANDAN, AMBALA CANTT
side of things. If he were right, the responsibility for the existing bitterness in
India would rest principally if not solely with the educated Indian. Letters to the Editor, typed in double space, should not exceed the 200-word limit. These should be cogently written and can be sent by e-mail to: Letters@tribunemail.com
V
ARIOUS opinion polls are reputed magazine, Literary Digest, regional parties, complex caste-reli-
predicting varied combina- carried out a poll with a massive sam- gion-language divisions, a number
tions of the 17th Lok Sabha. ple size of 24 lakh, and predicted that of official and unofficial alliances —
For example, the difference Republican candidate Alfred Landon all these make the overall prediction
between the maximum and minimum would get 57 per cent votes, while a daunting task. And the errors
predicted number of NDA seats in incumbent President Franklin Roo- would be compounded — in most
about a dozen publicly available opin- sevelt would get the remaining 43 per cases, nobody really knows the mag-
ion polls in 2019 is 58 — nearly 11 per cent. However, in the election, 62 per nitude of the errors. In a nutshell,
cent of the total number of seats! cent of the votes went to Roosevelt the samples should be a representa-
Whether the actual picture will be sim- against 38 per cent for Landon. tive cross-section of the population.
ilar or different in either direction from There were different undesirable And then, unless these relationships
the average of these poll results will be features in the sample selection which are depicted within the framed mod-
known only on May 23. resulted in such a disaster. There was el with reasonable accuracy, it will
Are opinion polls a self-fulfilling ‘selection bias’ in this case as the be almost impossible to make rea-
prophecy? Could their average, at individuals under study were affluent TOUGH: Regional issues, complex caste-religion equations, official and unofficial alliances make prediction a daunting task. sonably correct predictions through
least, be blindly believed? The record people whose names appeared in tele- the opinion polls.
of opinion polls in India’s General phone directories (telephone was Party supporters — the term ‘shy Tory presidential election, Gallup’s opin- The procedures of sampling and
Election during this millennium, more of a luxury in 1936), club mem- Predicting the number of factor’ became popular during the ion poll predicted 50 per cent votes analyses are not publicly available for
however, is not very encouraging. berships and magazine subscribers’ seats various political election of John Major in the 1990s. for Republican candidate Thomas most of the opinion polls of our coun-
The 2004 General Election was a clas- lists. And Roosevelt had less support George Gallup introduced quota Dewey and 44 per cent for Democrat try, which makes it impossible to
sic example of monumental blunder base among such people. Again, there parties will win is much sampling in 1935, where stratified Harry Truman. The election result gauge the quantum of selection bias
of the opinion polls. Most of the opin- was severe ‘non-response bias’ — the samples were taken by maintaining was just the reverse — Truman got and non-response bias that are
ion polls in 2009 could not visualise a magazine approached 1 crore individ-
more complicated than socio-economic proportions, but 50 per cent votes, and Dewey could induced. Also, are the samples proper-
comprehensive UPA victory. uals, of which only 24 per cent simply estimating their they were not ‘random’ within each manage 45 per cent. Chicago Tri- ly stratified according to the socio-eco-
Although an NDA win was largely responded. There is reason to believe stratum. Gallup’s employees ful- bune was so convinced of Dewey’s nomic-gender divisions across differ-
predicted in 2014, most of the opinion that the people who respond to such vote share. The degree filled their quota within each stra- victory that it went to press for its ent parts of the vast and diverse
polls failed to foresee the huge mar- surveys are different from people who tum for sure, but human interven- early edition for November 4, 1948, country? Are the samples within each
gin of the victory. don’t in terms of their political prefer-
of complication gets tion in choosing the sample is with the headline ‘Dewey defeats stratum truly random?
Such gross mistakes in the opinion ences. Quite often, people supporting amplified in a multi-party always subject to bias. In contrast, Truman’! The photograph of a victo- Unless all these aspects are ensured
polls are not limited to the results of a particular party or candidate are by ‘random’ we mean that each rious Truman holding aloft a copy of and available in the public domain,
the General Election, as is apparent reluctant to express their views pub- democracy like ours. individual within a stratum will Chicago Tribune has become part of I’d rather prefer to put a statutory
from the last Assembly elections of licly for various reasons. In the UK, have the same probability of being US folklore. This election thus warning for the opinion polls — ‘for
Bihar, Delhi and West Bengal. Some- this happens among the Conservative included in the sample. For the 1948 taught the pollsters the importance entertainment only’!
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