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Conditioners-
Current
Situation in
India
Index
1. Policies:
2. The challenge:
3. Sub-sector Market Analysis of Total cooling
requirement:
1.Policies
This section provides a background of the policies driving climate change actions and the policies
specifically that impacts the cooling and refrigeration sector which is then followed up by policies in
Indian context.
of the Parties (COP). The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the United Nations
Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC) and aims to set the world on the course
of sustainable development by limiting the increase in the global average temperature between
1.5- 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, and to achieve net Zero emissions in the second half
of this century.The Paris Agreement was adopted on December 12, 2016 and is expected to come
into force around 2020.
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are the outline framed by countries
which adopted International Climate Agreement at the United Nations Convention on Climate
change (UNFCCC) conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December 2015. It states their
intended climate actions to be taken them post 2020 to hold the increase in global average
temperature well below 2 degree C, pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degree C and to
achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this century. When the countries formally joined
the Paris Agreement by ratifying the treaty Intended NDCs were converted to NDCs.
INDCs communicate a country’s ambition to reduce emissions and to address climate change
reforms internationally. Article 3 of the framework requires NDCs to be “ambitious”. The
1
United Nations Climate Change Conferences are yearly conferences which serves as the formal
meetings of the parties held under the framework of UNFCCC. Parties to the UNFCCC have been
meeting since 1995 to discuss how to achieve the treaty’s aims and the progress in the efforts made
by parties in dealing with climate change. The First UNFCCC conference of the parties, COP 1, took
place in Berlin, Germany in 1995.
contributions are to be reported every 5 years and each further ambition should be more
ambitious than the previous one
TALANOA DIALOGUE
The Talanoa dialogue process was launched in COP23 held in Bonn to take stock of progress
under Paris Agreement. The Dialogue was established to identify how countries can enhance
action .
The Talanoa dialogue was based on three core questions: Where are we? Where do we want to
go? How do we get there?
The Montreal Protocol supports to expand climate friendly AC market in India and across the
globe by funding manufacturing enterprises in developing countries to convert factories ozone
depleting chemical and high GWP refrigerants to safe alternatives by redesigning products,
Retooling factories and more. It has also began conducting pilot HFC conversion projects to
understand the costs and procedures required for companies to make a transition to lower GWP
refrigerants. It often takes considerable time for AC components like refrigerators, compressors,
heat exchangers and other components to evolve in the market to reach sufficient scale,
performance, and cost competitiveness.
The Above table gives a clear picture of how Montreal Protocol Funding will give an advantage
to AC manufacturers
The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate change (MoEFCC), the Government of India
Developed a National Cooling Action Plan (NCAP) that provided a 20 Year Outlook on how
cooling demand in India would grow and evolve. It has acted as a multi-stakeholder integrated
and consultative process so that actions for addressing cooling demand across all sectors could
be synergized.
ICAP encompasses:
(a) passively-cooled building design that deploys natural and mechanical ventilation;
(b) adoption of adaptive thermal comfort standards to specify pre-setting of temperatures of air
conditioning equipment for commercial built spaces;
(c) promoting the use of energy-efficient refrigerant- based appliances as well as not-in-kind
technologies;
(d) policy interventions for market transformation, including public procurement of energy-
efficient RAC appliances and equipment;
(e) development of energy efficient and renewable energy base cold chain for perishable foods,
national skill development program for training and certification for RAC service technicians to
complement transition to energy efficient, low-GWP refrigerants, and
(f) focused R&D efforts to foster an innovative ecosystem to support development and
deployment of low-GWP refrigerant alternatives.
MEPS- Minimum energy performance standards. MEPS are procedures and regulations that
prescribe the energy performance of manufactured products and prohibit the sale of products that
do not meet these standards (Wiel and McMahon 2011). AC MEPS consist of a broader labelling
system which is 5- Star rating program , BEE within Bureau of Energy Efficiency under Ministry
of Power.
The graph shows how MEPS has improved every year from 2010 by 3%. It forecasts the
trajectory till the year 2030 by assuming a jump of 3.5 ISEER. Thereafter it assumes growth rate
of 6% per year.
Star Rating:
Star rating is grade of energy efficiency displayed on the label of the room air conditioner based
on the energy consumption standard. The available stars are between a minimum of one to
maximum of five. The star rating is calculated by star rating band. 1 star has minimum energy
efficiency.
The above table shows the Star rating standards set by the BEE corresponding to Maximum and
minimum ISEE
On January 1, 2018. India’s Star Rating system was switched to a single rating scale for both
single speed and variable speed compressors which is called as ISEER
The above tables show the two data which tells the sales pattern of AC purchasing.
1 chart shows sales by star rating and second shows estimated sales of ACs by refrigerant
st
2.The Challenge
The rise of temperature globally, growth of population, rapid urbanization and economic growth
are driving up the cooling demand more than ever, particularly in developing countries and
emerging economies. Along with this, the living standard of people is rising with electricity
access across the country, which is leading to increase in sales of room air conditioners (ACs).
The demand for air conditioning is likely to increase by 9% annually until the year 2050 in
developing countries.
2
According to the forecasts Asia Pacific Middle Class will nearly triple by 2030 to more than 3
billion people which will be one -third of the Global Population. ACs are now a necessity for a
healthy standard of living. Increasing affluence, changing lifestyle and aspirations would require
more cooling. Cooling Impacts people of almost every demography and also impacts in
achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
On an average, about two third of the GHG emission are caused by energy consumption which is
2 3
indirect consumption and one third by the use of refrigerants which is the direct emission.
Efforts in the direction to completely avoid direct emission can be made by switching to
5
refrigerants with negligible or no global warming potential (GWP ). it is also estimated that
more than 50% of indirect emissions from energy consumptions can be cut by improving product
efficiency.
One means of reducing carbon is through energy efficiency measures. In lower income countries,
electricity wasted due to inefficient electrical appliances can be directed to more people where
electrification rates are low. Additional burden on investments in energy infrastructure, which is
a huge burden on poor countries could also be lessened. Net saving could also increase as cost of
Electricity per KWh is typically high in developing countries.
2
According to the report –A cool World defining the energy conundrum of cooing for all published by University of
Birmingham
3
Direct Emission- Emissions from the sources which are owned or controlled by the entity who is reporting
4
Indirect Emission – These are the emissions that are the consequences of the activities of the reporting entity
Green House Potential – GWP is the measure of how much heat a green house gas traps in the atmosphere. This
measure is relative.
(RAC) stock has expanded from 2 million in 2006 to estimated 30 million in 2017. Expected
sales of room ACs are projected to be between 55 - 124 million by 2030.
In the Fiscal year 2017 about 5 million ACs were sold across the country.
5
Abhyankar, Nikit et al. Accelerating Energy Efficiency Improvements in Room Air Conditioners in
India:Potential, Costs-Benefits, and Policies.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) 2017. Page 19.
https://eta.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lbnl-1005798.pdf
The above graph represents how Kigali Amendment implication would bring out a real change in
Carbon Emissions
2.2.1 Refrigerants
Cooling effect is created by air conditioners which use refrigerants. These are the gases which
transfer heat away from the room by changing phase which is a part of a refrigeration cycle.
Refrigerants are chosen based on their thermodynamic properties. They often have undesirable
characteristics such as the tendency to destroy ozone Molecules (High Ozone Depletion
Potential- ODP), worsen Global Green House Effect (High Global Warming Potential-GWP),
Toxicity, Flammability, corrosivity and more.
For India the cap on HFCs will began in 2028 under the Kigali Amendment. However, AC
manufacturers have already planned to leapfrog high GWP HFC-410A as a part of HCFC Phase
out Management Plan process (HPMP), under which companies will receive funding from
Multilateral Fund (MLF) convert away from HCFC-22 in the next 7 years.
In India the HFC-32 emerged as predominant alternative with GWP - 677. It is considered
market ready by nearly all manufacturers. It provides about two third reduction in direct climate
impact of the refrigerant as compared to HFC-410A. The first HPMP to use HFC-32 will save
over 1.2 million CO2eq Tons of annual refrigerant use.
HC-290 is already being used in India but its market share would increase when HFC would
phase down.
The likeliness is towards the use of lowest GWP refrigerants such as HC-290(Propane),GWP-3
to continue work under Kigali Agreement. HFC-32 though have significant climate impact is a
major improvement over HFC-410A.
The Table shows the characteristics of AC refrigerants by which they are compared
Improving the Energy Efficiency of room ACs can deliver high climate benefits which could be
three times as large as benefits of switching refrigerants. According to Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory (LBNL) estimates that annual carbon carbon dioxide emissions will fall by
approx 180 million MT per year if India’s AC Stock improves in average efficiency by 30%
from 2015 levels. This reduction is equivalent to about 10% of the Carbon Dioxide emissions
reduction expected from India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs).
The Montreal Protocol has been consist in improving appliance energy efficiency along with
refrigerant changes. Redesigning products to be compatible with new refrigerant technologies
allow manufacturers to use newer and more efficient components. These technological upgrades
could be , for example, higher energy efficient heat exchangers, advanced variable speed
compressors and expansion valves and more.
According to Montreal Protocol’s Technology and Economic Assessment Panel(TEAP) report,
foreseeable technological innovations will improve efficiency of about 30-40% beyond current
best technology available today.
3.1.Space Cooling
Space cooling is the most important component of total cooling requirement. Indoor thermal
cooling is the most essential for physiological and psychological well- being. It can be obtained
by active heating or cooling. It is dependent on local weather and seasonal variations.
The Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP), while phasing Down HFCs,
recommend measures for energy efficiency
● Minimization of cooling Load
● Selection of Appropriate refrigerant
● Use of highly efficient components and system design
● To Ensure optimized control and operation , under all common operating conditions
● Designing features that support servicing and maintenance
3.1.1Residential sector
Approximately 272 million households were estimated in India in 2017. The number would
increase to 328and 386 million in 2027 and 2037.Approximately 8% of the current households
have room air conditioners which is expected to rise to 21% and 40% in 2027-28 and 2037-38
respectively.
According to NSSO 2011, there were approximately 1.2 room air conditioners per household.
3.1.2 Commercial Sector
The intensity of demand and electricity consumption in commercial building sector is much
higher as compared to residential sector.The commercial sector has been classified under 8 major
segments: hospital, hotels & restaurants, retail, office buildings, educational institutions,
assembly places, transit buildings & warehouses. The commercial sector is expected to in the
next decade by 1.5-2 times and 2.5-3 times by 2037-38. The air conditioning systems used in
commercial buildings include chillers, Packaged DX units, VRFs, and room air conditioners
3.1.3 Technologies available in Space Cooling:
This section is to understand the technologies available for space cooling.
Note: This is important for those who would be speaking to the Technology installers
Room Air conditioner: they are non ducted unitary system, which includes mini or single split
(fixed speed and inverter types ) and window/ through the wall(Fixed speed type) configuration.
Currently fixed speed ACs are available in BEE 3 star ratings and inverter type in BEE 3,4,5
ratings.
Currently penetration of room AC is approximately 7-9% but is likely to increase.
Chiller System
Central chilled water air conditioning systems are the preferred choice for large commercial
buildings. chiller is the most energy guzzling component. The other components chilled water
pumps, condenser water pumps, cooling tower fans, air handling units and fan coil units.
Packaged DX: they are ducted and packaged systems which includes rooftop and indoor
packaged units in commercial air conditioning segment. They are also called as unitary and light
commercial systems. They are also used mostly in small to medium commercials. These systems
start from 3TR up to 24 TR ,using a single compressor up to 10 TR capacity. Technology
adoption is slow in this category because of low growth.
1. Multi stage and variable speed drives/controllers: energy efficiency achieved through
variable speed operation. AC match with part load cooling demand and improvement in
seasonal efficiency
2. Advanced compressors: Design improvements and new compressor technology . Large
systems use multiple compressors to improve part load performance.
3. Improved Heat Exchangers: Increased size to improve efficiency esp. during part load
operation. advanced heat exchanger designs
4. Electronic Expansion Valves: it provide increased modulation capabilities to match the
need of variable capacity AC systems
5. High Efficiency Fans: More aerodynamic designs, high efficiency motors and variable
speed controls.
6. High efficiency motors: Electrically commutated motors have higher efficiencies than
permanent split capacitor motor.
7. Advanced controls: different occupancy sensing technology can alter thermostat set
points thereby reducing energy consumption.
2. Passive Cooling
1. Insulation : increased thickness or R value to reduce cooing up to 8%
2. Windows: reducing heat absorption by shading by installing double/triple glazed units
and low E coating can reduce demand by 30%
3. Roofing : installation of Cool / Green Roof reduce solar heat gain
4. Surface orientation: Apposite building orientation and window to wall ratio can reduce
direct heat gain
5. Infiltration/Exfiltration: to Minimize air exchange between conditioned space and
outdoor environment while still providing fresh air
The above tables gives the predictions of refrigerants and Energy consumption in the future
3.2.Cold Chain & Refrigeration
Cold Chain is a logistical chain of activities which involves packaging, storage and distribution
of perishable food products from point of production to point of consumption. Here the inventory
is maintained at predetermined environmental parameters.
3.3.3 Trucks
Currently the driver’s cabin in trucks are not air conditioned. There is no data available for
estimation of future Demand. Though this sector has huge potential for growth
3.3.4 Railway
Energy consumption due to air conditioning in railways is comparatively very low as compared
to other sectors. This is because the share of AC Coaches is lower in railway segment
The above Table shows the overall Future Demand predictions of Passenger Car, Bus and
Railway. This prediction can be detrimental to define our future strategies an vision to bring
reform in RAC sector.