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CEDH Book of Knowledge
CEDH Book of Knowledge
Counterspells by /u/SirOzsome
Free:
Counterspells by /u/SirOzsome
Free:
● Force of Will
● Pact of Negation
● Mental Misstep
● Misdirection
● Daze
● Mindbreak Trap
● Thwart (/u/simponboy77)
● Foil (/u/simponboy77)
● Disrupting Soal (added by vgp)
These counterspells can be used without paying Mana for them, which is their shared, very strong, upside.
The downsides of each individual spell will be explained here:
● Force of Will: Exiling as a cost worsens the issue of card disadvantage. Finding a blue card worth
pitching can be an issue.
● Pact of Negation: This protects you really well if you're winning on the same turn, but if you're
forced to use it reactively, the 3UU on your next Upkeep can be a huge blowout (imagine
someone dropping a Static Orb while you're tapped out).
● Mental Misstep: It is somewhat narrow, but there are a lot of 1-mana Spells in cEDH (Dorks,
Rocks, Cantrips, cheap Removal, cheap Counterspells). Worth including in most decks.
● Misdirection: Only really deals with spot removal and Counterspells (or USZ/Stroke of Genius, I
guess). VERY narrow, and has the same card disadvantage as Force of Will.
● Daze: It's good in Legacy because it can be a great tempo card if your opponent taps out. In
cEDH, having to pay 1 extra usually doesn't cut it, even if Daze is "free". Returning a land can
also set you back by quite a lot.
● Mindbreak Trap: This one has lost a lot of utility since Storm players switched to Aetherflux
Reservoir. While it is quite good at winning Counter wars and doesn't cost you a card like Force
of Will or Misdirection, the three spells clause might leave you sitting with it in your hand for an
uncomfortable amount of time.
● Thwart: While it is costly via tempo, it is similar to Pact of Negation where the tempo wouldn’t
matter if you win that turn.
● Foil: Extreme card disadvantage, but vs FoW it doesn’t need a blue card, just an island.
● Disrupting Soal: Card disadvantage as you need to discard a card, and the spells you can counter
are limited to the CMC of the cards you have in hand. At the same time cEDH has a limited
spread in term of CMC.
Universal:
● Mana Drain
● Counterspell
● Unsubstantiate
● Remand
● Memory Lapse
● Arcane Denial
● Logic Knot
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● Dispel: Absolutely fantastic in a Counter war, still decent outside of it. Can catch cards like Ad
Nauseam or High Tide.
● Annul: Actually not as much of a Meta call as many people might think. Quite literally every
cEDH deck plays a fair deal of artifacts, and a good number even use one as a win condition
(think Basalt Monolith + R ings of Brighthearth, The Chain Veil in Teferi, etc.). There are also
several strong Enchantments that are worth countering, as mentioned above. If you think you can
afford to use up a slot for this, go for it. In my personal experience, I have never felt like I needed
that card in any of my decks.
● Spell Snare: Can be good, but is mostly a Meta call. Hits many other Counterspells, some
removal, some draw spells, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Gaddock Teeg, and some support cards
like Sylvan Library or Dark Confidant.
● Invasive Surgery: We're getting super narrow here. This is where I'd make the general viability
cutoff for nine out of ten cEDH decks. Can deal with cards like Doomsday, Wrath Effects, and
some other stuff for just 1 mana.
● Essence Scatter / Remove Soul / False Summoning: If all you're ever up against is
Yisan/Sisay/Karador and co., consider adding this.
● Nix: This might be pretty spicy, but is somewhat narrower than Mental Misstep. On top of cards
like Mana Crypt or Mox Diamond, it can hit all of our free Counterspells from earlier, and it hits
stuff that was cast with Cascade/Mind's Desire etc.
Activated/triggered abilities:
● Stifle
● Trickbind
● Disallow
● Voidslime
● Squelch (/u/Daveyb1283)
Countering activated and triggered abilities can be good in cEDH, especially with most Storm players
favouring Aetherflux Reservoir over T endrils of Agony nowadays. However, these are very narrow and
it's usually better to have a broader Counter in their place so the problematic abilities don't hit the deck in
the first place. These do have the added bonus of countering a Fetchland activation, but the impact of that
is far smaller than it is in Legacy. Once again, Multiplayer and all.
Gets around "can't be countered":
● Unsubstantiate
● Mindbreak Trap
● Ertai's Meddling
● Venser, Shaper Savant
● Summary Dismissal
● Spell Queller
Some of the better cards in cEDH are uncounterable, namely Abrupt Decay and Supreme Verdict. If you
see yourself getting blown out by one of those regularly, consider adding one of these. Unsubstantiate is
probably your best bet. Mindbreak Trap and Summary Dismissal can exile any-/everything on the stack,
but especially for the latter, it's not worth including most of the time.
● Dimir Charm
● Imp's Mischief
● Izzet Charm
● Counterflux
● Red Elemental Blast
● Pyroblast
● Guttural Response
● Voidslime
● Autumn's Veil
● Warping Wail
● Null Brooch
If you have access to Blue, the only ones you should consider here are Countersquall, Red Elemental
Blast, and Pyroblast. While the Charms are nice in terms of flexibility, you shouldn't play them if you
can't make use of the other modes as well. Even in non-Blue decks, most of these will not be worth a slot.
Not every deck wants Counterspells, and a lot of non-Blue decks tend to fit in that category. Other colours
offer different means of interaction, for instance Discard in Black.
Now, looking at all of these Counterspells, I'd like to make the case for the following two Counterspells in
cEDH: Delay and Mana Leak.
Here how I think about them:
● Both are universal Counters. They can deal with anything your opponents cast, and as we know:
the broader a Counter, the better.
● Both have a CMC of two: Two CMC is pretty much the cutoff for a viable Counterspell in cEDH,
with a lot of decks having their average CMCs around two or less.
● Rather than UU, they cost 1U: For multicolored decks, 1U is far easier and more comfortable to
cast than UU. Also has spicy synergy with cards like Helm of Awakening or Grand Arbiter
Augustin IV.
● For Delay, the Suspend part either doesn't matter because you can win quickly enough, or it
makes the suspended spell useless (think Dark Ritual or Counterspell) most of the time. There is,
of course, the third case, where an important spell comes back three turns later, but even then, (up
to) three players have 2-3 turns to find some sort of interaction for it.
● For Mana Leak, I've brought up that cEDH tends to operate on fairly small Mana margins. Even
if it costs one more Mana than Spell Pierce, making your opponent pay three Mana instead of two
can be very big game.
All in all, I think that Delay and Mana Leak are very viable in cEDH and should be considered when
building a deck. Both of them fit more into a fast Combo type of deck rather than a
Stax/Control/Midrange shell, but even in those, they are worth having a look at.
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As with everything, this is just my opinion and is by no means set in stone. Thanks.
CMC 0
Artifact Lands
● Ancient Den
● Seat of the Synod
● Vault of Whispers
● Great Furnace
● Tree of Tales
● Darksteel Citadel
Charge Counters
● Astral Cornucopia
● Everflowing Chalice
● Jeweled Amulet
One-shot
● Lotus Bloom
● Lion's Eye Diamond
● Lotus Petal
Continuous
● Chrome Mox
● Mana Crypt
● Mox Diamond
● Mox Opal
● Mox Amber
Other
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● Paradise Mantle
CMC 1
Eggs
● Barbed Sextant
● Chromatic Sphere
● Chromatic Star
● Darkwater Egg
● Mossfire Egg
● Shadowblood Egg
● Skycloud Egg
● Sungrass Egg
● Terrarion
Colorless
● Mana Vault
● Sol Ring
Other
● Expedition Map
● Voltaic Key
CMC 2
Signet Cycle
● Azorius Signet
● Boros Signet
● Dimir Signet
● Golgari Signet
● Gruul Signet
● Izzet Signet
● Orzhov Signet
● Rakdos Signet
● Selesnya Signet
● Simic Signet
Talisman Cycle
● Talisman of Dominance
● Talisman of Impulse
● Talisman of Indulgence
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● Talisman of Progress
● Talisman of Unity
Medallion Cycle
● Pearl Medallion
● Sapphire Medallion
● Jet Medallion
● Ruby Medallion
● Emerald Medallion
Colored
● Coldsteel Heart
● Fellwar Stone
Colorless
● Fractured Powerstone
● Grim Monolith
● Guardian Idol
● Mind Stone
● Prismatic Lens
● Thought Vessel
Cost-reducing
● Dream Chisel
● Etherium Sculptor
● Helm of Awakening
Other Dorks
● Hedron Crawler
● Manakin
● Millikin
Other
● Doubling Cube
● Galvanic Key
● Implements of Sacrifice
● Kaleidostone
● Lotus Blossom
● Pentad Prism
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● Pili-Pala
● Prophetic Prism
● Surveyor's Scope
CMC 3
Sacrifice Outlets
● Ashnod's Altar
● Phyrexian Altar
Colored
● Coalition Relic
Colorless
● Basalt Monolith
● Worn Powerstone
Cost-reducing
● Cloud Key
● Inspiring Sanctuary*
CMC 4+
Colored
● Gilded Lotus
● Paradox Engine
Colorless
● Thran Dynamo
Doomsday is notoriously difficult to cast: there are countless possibilities, and any mistake means a game
loss. Doomsday EDH is great power that comes with great responsibility.
Doomsday is one of the preferred win-conditions for competitive EDH, and for good reason. It gives you
a versatile and consistent win condition. The costs of playing EDH Doomsday is steep: any mistakes and
you lose the game. Misordering the pile often loses the game. It’s pretty easy to shoot yourself in the foot
with this.
But this card is fun to play. If you draw a card that ought to be in your doomsday pile, what do you
replace it with? Can you still win with Doomsday after Laboratory Maniac gets hit by a Jester's Cap? It
makes situations where you have to think on your feet, solving a 99 card puzzle, and that puzzle can be
fun because the stakes are so high. Most misplays are only seem important after the fact, but Doomsday
makes the stakes clear immediately.
● Predict
● Laboratory Maniac
● Gitaxian Probe
● Lion's Eye Diamond
● Yawgmoth's Will
● Gush
● Faithless Looting, Careful Study or Frantic Search
● Street Wraith
● Laboratory Maniac
● Unearth
The cost: [m]r[/m][m]b[/m], 2 life, 2 islands or [m]u[/m][m]b[/m], 2 life, 2 islands
After the Faithless Looting, discard an island and the Laboratory Maniac, unearth him, and boom.
Optionally, Frantic Search could take the place of the looting, but it makes the pile more expensive. This
pile is great when you have the mana to flashback Faithless Looting, so you can flash it back, and in
response to any removal on Laboratory Maniac, you can cycle Street Wraith. Just know that playing Gush
has a real cost: without a very expensive ideal mana base with sufficient islands, you won’t be able to cast
Gush very reliably. (Potentially costs B, 2 life, 1 island if you haven’t played a land per turn yet and don’t
have one.)
Compact Pile
● Predict
● Laboratory Maniac
● Gitaxian Probe
● Unearth
● Street Wraith
The cost: [m]u[/m][m]b[/m][m]1[/m], 4 life
This pile comes with the advantage of not playing cards that are (too) dead outside the doomsday combo.
It costs one more mana than the pile above, but it’s a much more compact package that can be reliably
played in any number of decks. This is the most popular pile for a reason, most decks should consider this
the gold standard.
With Protection
● Gitaxian Probe
● Ideas Unbound
● Laboratory Maniac
● Pact of Negation
● Street Wraith
This Pile only Costs [m]u[/m][m]u[/m][m]u[/m] if you chose to play a Mana Crypt instead of the Pact. It's
good to note that the Pact could be any piece of interaction you want. Be sure to aim the Gitaxian Probe at
the right player, so you know if it’s safe to go off or if you should wait a turn and hope they tap out.
15
With Protection
● Meditate
● Pact of Negation
● Mana Crypt
● Street Wraith
● Laboratory Maniac
This pile adds protection, in exchange for a very all-in nature. Meditate isn’t otherwise a very good card,
but it’s serviceable in very fast combo decks. If you have more mana, an additional piece of interaction
can be played over the crypt.
● Gush
● Faithless Looting
● Pact of Negation
● Laboratory Maniac
● Unearth
After the Faithless Looting, discard an island and the Laboratory Maniac, unearth him, and boom.
Optionally, Frantic Search (or Izzet Charm) could take the place of the looting, but it makes the pile
require more mana. This pile is great when you have the mana to flashback Faithless Looting, so you can
flash it back, and in response to any removal on Laboratory Maniac, you can cycle Street Wraith.
● Abeyance
● Predict
● Laboratory Maniac
● Unearth
● Street Wraith
Abeyance only targets a single player, but that’s going to get there a lot in EDH, especially if you play in
the right meta. The pile itself is fairly expensive, but it also has a very low opportunity cost. Many decks
aren’t ashamed to cast Abeyance outside this combo either.
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● Thought Scour
● Laboratory Maniac
● Deep Analysis
● Temporal Mastery
● Reanimate
The cost: [m]u[/m][m]u[/m][m]1[/m] on the first turn, [m]u[/m][m]b[/m][m]1[/m], 3 life on the second
This pile is made of EDH staples. If you want to play Doomsday with a cheap pile and only a minor
drawback (letting a single opponent have a turn) without dedicating a lot of slots to the combo, then you
could do worse, but this pile is introduces more variables many of the others.
● Predict
● Brain Freeze, Tendrils of Agony, Bitter Ordeal or Grapeshot
● Conjurer's Bauble
● Lion's Eye Diamond
● Second Sunrise
This Pile is particularly strong because it doesn’t leave you open to creature removal, it’s very cheap, and
it leaves plenty of room for your opponent to mess up with a counterspell or piece of artifact removal.
Sydri, Galvanic Genius eggs already wants to be playing these cards, so this pile works out perfectly for
those kinds of decks. Brain Freeze and Grapeshot are the two cheaper piles, but each option works just as
well if you think Brain Freeze is too dead to draw.
Reanimator Pile
● Gitaxian Probe
● Thought Scour
● Combo Creature #1
● Combo Creature #2
● Victimize
If you don’t have a creature to sacrifice, Putting a Wall of Omens on top of the stack is a strong play.
In the Combo Creature slots, you can play Azami, Lady of Scrolls and Laboratory Maniac, but in a
reanimation deck, you likely have easier cards to win with here. Mikaeus, the Unhallowed and Triskelion
are good choices. I’m assuming you don’t play green, since build-your-own-Tooth and Nail isn’t very
appealing in a green deck.
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Grenzo Piles
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden is very capable of winning with Doomsday, but his piles are very different.
Terrible Piles
There are no good Shelldock Isle piles in multiplayer EDH. E mrakul is banned, cloud of fairies is bad,
and the pile is generally slow, requiring either lots of mana, multiple cantrips in hand, or multiple turns to
draw into it all. Don’t bother with these piles. I seriously have never seen a Shelldock pile that worked in
competitive multiplayer EDH.
Alternatively, people talk about using Ideas Unbound to draw into a two-card combo with protection, but
most of these are far more expensive than the Laboratory Maniac plan is with little upside.
The Specifics
All of these piles assume you have nothing in hand, but that’s not how it works at all. You need to be able
to look at what’s going on in the game, and adjust. Until Laboratory Maniac was printed, all doomsday
piles just looked to complete what you have in hand. It’s best to think of doomsday this way, even if you
just grab a premade pile from this list most of the time.
In a situation where you can choose between Street Wraith and Gitaxian Probe, typically go with Street
Wraith, since it can’t be countered (as easily.) However, if you have the mana (and deck slots) to spare,
Chromatic Sphere can’t be countered or stifled because it is a mana ability. But that opens the combo to
artifact removal if you play it before Laboratory Maniac is on the field. Although, how much any of this
matters is questionable, since opponent’s typically point counters are more obviously important cards.
As a rule of thumb, for every cantrip you have in hand, you can replace a cantrip in the pile with more
protection or mana. If you have Laboratory Maniac in hand, use a pile above without Unearth, and replace
it with Mana Crypt or Pact of Negation.
If you aren’t already running Yawgmoth's Will or Lion's Eye Diamond, don’t start just for better
Doomsday piles.
Predict isn’t too embarrassing when you just want to cantrip. It attacks your opponent’s top-of-deck tutors
(and rewards you if you can figure out what that player is thinking!), along with just drawing a card. It’s
almost playable by itself in a delve heavy deck like Tasigur, the Golden Fang, but it’s not quite there. It
gets bonus points for being great with Sensei's Divining Top. But generally, this card is worth it because it
enables the cheapest Doomsday piles. When you aren’t an all-in storm deck, and you don’t want to be
running pieces like Lion's Eye Diamond, Predict is the answer. The only competition comes from Gush,
but that requires a very island-heavy mana base, and that isn’t always possible in a three-color budget
deck. Perhaps the best use of Predict outside of the combo is to fight against an opposing Doomsday
player by milling their stack.
18
If you can cast Gush, you probably want to. This card is great, especially along side a lot of artifact mana.
I’m not a huge fan of Ideas Unbound or Meditate, but some decks use them to great effect. Gitaxian Probe
and Street Wraith are too easy not to include.
I hope to continue adding to this guide as I learn more piles, and playtest to see which piles are good
enough. If you know of any Doomsday Piles I didn’t include, link them in the comments below.
Land Destruction is a website focused on writing the best content about competitive-minded multiplayer
EDH, modern and legacy brews and more. If you want to improve your game, and learn read about brews,
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Magic: The Gathering, and all card art used is © Wizards of the Coast.
--Addition by /u/syjte--
● If you play it and your mana allows, just stack Mind's Desire on top of the pile. Makes the doomsday
pile a lot easier - no sequencing required. Of course, you should have a storm count of at least 3. This
also allows you to pack more protection into the pile, stacking MD, Labman, Draw, 2 pieces of
protection. This is relevant if you doomsday with only one draw available in your hand.
● Doomsday with Necro out allows you to customize 1,2,3 or 4 card piles. Just choose the minimum
amount you need, and pay life to exile excess cards from the pile with Necropotence.
● Doomsday with SDT as your only draw spell is a little more complicated - stack (Gush, LED,
YawgWill, Probe, Labman). The chain goes SDT -> Gush -> LED -> SDT, hold priority, LED -> Will
-> Gush -> Probe -> Labman -> SDT, Draw, Win. This pile requires 2, 2 life, 4 Islands.
● (Gush, LED, Probe, Yawgwill, Labman) is a pile that requires only 4 islands, 4 life and no mana. The
Doomsday guide piles all require unearth/predict/Faithless Looting, which may not see play in all
decks, e.g Zur doesn't play any of those.
● (Gush, XXX, Frantic Search, Labman, Probe) is another basic pile not mentioned. XXX can be
anything you need - a Counterspell for protection, Mana Crypt for mana, etc. This pile requires 2
Islands, 2U(+3 lands to untap for Frantic Search, so 5 lands total) and 2 life. If you have an extra card
in your hand, and you haven't played a land this turn, you can pull this off with 2 Mana and 4 lands.
Just replay the island you bounced with gush. Note that if you use Mana Crypt in this situation, this
pile only requires 4 lands, 2 life and no mana.
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Search By CMC
Search By Name
Eerie Procession
Infernal Tutor
Faerie Harbinger
Trapmaker's Snare
Grim Tutor
Tutor Creature
Tutor Land
Tutors
Colorless:
0 CMC:
● Mox Diamond
● Mana Crypt
● Lotus Petal
● Mox Opal
● Chrome Mox
● Lion’s Eye Diamond
1 CMC:
● Sol Ring
● Sensei’s Divining Top
● Pithing Needle
● Grafdigger’s Cage
● Mana Vault
● Skull Clamp
2 CMC:
● Fellwar Stone
● Signets
● Talismans
● Grim Monolith
● Thought Vessel
3 CMC:
4 CMC:
● Aetherflux Reservoir
5 CMC:
● Paradox Engine
6 CMC:
31
White:
0 CMC:
1 CMC:
● Tithe
● Enlightened tutor
● Swords to plowshares
● Path to exile
2 CMC:
● Stoneforge Mystic
3 CMC:
● Aven Mindcensor
● Recruiter of the Guard
● Nevermore
● Idyllic Tutor
4 CMC:
● Academy Rector
5 CMC:
6 CMC:
Blue:
0 CMC:
● Pact of Negation
1 CMC:
● Mystical Tutor
● Mystic Remora
● Preordain
● Spell Pierce
● FlusterStorm
● Ponder
● Brainstorm
● Gitaxian Probe
● Swan Song
● High tide
2 CMC:
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● Snapcaster Mage
● Arcane Denial
● Mana Drain
● Counterspell
● Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
● Cyclonic Rift
● Remand
● Unsubstantiate
● Impulse
● Negate
● Transmute Artifact
● Merchant Scroll
3 CMC:
● Intuition
● Windfall
● Timetwister
● Thirst for knowledge
● Rhystic Study
● Trinket Mage
● Fabricate
● Whir of Invention
4 CMC:
● Cryptic Command
● Fact or Fiction
● Jace, the Mind Sculptor
5 CMC:
● Tezzeret the Seeker
● Force of Will
6 CMC:
Black:
0 CMC:
1 CMC:
● Dark Ritual
● Entomb
● Reanimate
● Vampiric tutor
● Imperial Seal
2 CMC:
● Dark Confidant
33
● Demonic tutor
● Diabolic Intent
● Cabal Ritual
3 CMC:
● Necropotence
● Toxic Deluge
● Grim tutor
● Buried Alive
● Yawgmoth’s Will
● Doomsday
● Phyrexian Arena
4 CMC:
● Damnation
5 CMC:
● Ad Nauseam
6 CMC:
Red:
0 CMC:
1 CMC:
● Faithless Looting
● Vandalblast
● Gamble
2 CMC:
3 CMC:
● Imperial Recruiter
● Wheel of Fortune
● Blood Moon
● Magus of the Moon
4 CMC:
5 CMC:
6 CMC:
Green:
34
0 CMC:
● Dryad Arbor
● Summoner’s Pact
1 CMC:
● Noxious Revival
● Birds of Paradise
● Fyndhorn Elves
● Elvish Mystic
● Llanowar Elves
● Elves of deep Shadow
● Boreal Druid
● Crop rotation
● Nature’s Claim
● Worldly Tutor
● Green sun’s Zenith
● Noble Hierarch
2 CMC:
● Hermit Druid
● Bloom Tender
● Priest of Titania
● Sylvan Library
● Survival of the Fittest
● Regrowth
3 CMC:
● Krosan Grip
● Eternal Witness
● Beast Within
● Eldritch Evolution
● Chord of Calling
4 CMC:
● Natural Order
● Birthing Pod
5 CMC:
6 CMC:
Lands:
● Fetches
● ABUR Dual Lands
● Shock Lands
35
● Command Tower
● Reflecting Pool
● Gaea’s Cradle
● Ancient Tomb
● Academy Ruins
● Strip Mine
● Wasteland
● City of Brass
● Mana Confluence
● Mishra’s Workshop
● The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
● Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
● Spire of Industry *Tentative*
● Phyrexian tower
36
There are a number of competitive lists that run Chains as a wincon or a control piece, like
Tasigur, The Gitrog Monster, and others. This flowchart is a concise, useful tool for understanding what
might be otherwise convoluted interactions.
37
...or bolt you, or Thoughtseize you, or Force of Will your best card.
We play 100 card singleton and it can be confusing to figure out the “best” cards. We
have Ad Nauseam and Ancestral Mystic Remora to work with. But what wins games -
consistency or power level? The complicated answer is we need both - we need a density of
card effects to play high level 100 card singleton, and while the difference in power level
between Ancestral Recall and Divination may be obvious, what is the difference when we’re
comparing a card that is strong to a card that is every card?
EDH is a format with deck building constraints unlike any other format, and the cEDH
meta demands further constraints. The most commonly talked about constraints are mana
cost and color identity, but this article aims to describe a constraint that’s actually a
combination of the two - how do you get your deck to do the thing it does *consistently*?
How many tutors do you need to consistently hit your combo, how many lands do you need
to make sure you have at least 2 60+% of the time, how many stax pieces to ensure you get to
slow the game down? A lot of these answers are baked into our format (although I have seen
some decks with Slim land counts) but others aren't as obvious. To figure this out, we’re
going to be using Hypergeometric Distribution to find Hypergeometric Probabilities and
Cumulative Probabilities (!), which might sound like needlessly complicated jargon but if you
bear with me I think you’ll find it’s a more intuitive part of deck building than you might think.
First let's define some terms and explain our methodology. If you already have a
working knowledge of HyGeo, feel free to skip to part 2. Hypergeometric Distribution is a
method of finding the probability of successes with a specific amount of draws out of a
known population. What?!? Let’s explain it like we're 5. If I go Dark Confi- er, bobbing for
apples and there are 15 apples in the tub but 5 of them have Razor Boomerangs in them, what
are the odds that in one attempt Fossil will enjoy a delicious snack instead of asking people if
they wanna know how I got these scars for the rest of my life? This is pretty simple math
38
right? There is a 1 in 3 chance, or 33.3%. But what if I want to know my odds if I Bob for 2
apples at the same time? (57.1% chance of 1 or more) What if I want to know what the odds
are of hitting a razor after I got one apple out unscathed? (Up to 35.7% now that our sample
size is 14, 1 less than when we started)
Hypergeometric Distribution can be used to find many things, but we’ll try to limit the
scope of this article somewhat to avoid turning into Understanding Gush (an excellent read if
you have a few hours/days). We'll be calculating the odds of an opening hand having cards
we need for our deck to function. The opening hand is usually the most important one of the
game (although some players who have been Wheeled into their combo might disagree) and
since it is one of the only common denominators in every game (other than yourself!) it
seems like a good area of focus. I'm using
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx to make my calculations. If you
would like to make calculations of your own, do the following:
● Set Number of Successes in Population (NSPop) to the number of cards that do the
thing you need. Some examples include the number of lands in your deck, the number
of fast mana sources, or the number of functional equivalents to a combo piece (Food
Chain, Demonic Tutor, Drift of Phantasms, etc.)
● Set Sample Size (SSize) to 7 for your opener or 8 if you would like to include the draw.
I will be using 7 for my examples moving forward because you cannot predict your
draw when mulliganing and it will ease comparison to 60 card decks.
** Note that if we want the odds of multiple different card types, for example Food Chain and
2 lands, we can find the hypergeometric probability of Food Chain in a sample size of 7 then
do the same for Lands in a sample size of 6 (7-1, where 1 is the card that is Food Chain) then
multiply our two results to get the cumulative probability of both events occurring.
Let's run through a few quick examples using u/ShaperSavant and u/BigLupu's Food
Chain Tazri deck.
For our first example, we’ll find the odds of having Food Chain in our opener.
39
Actually, first let's slow it down and assume we heard Food Chain was a sweet combo
and jammed it in our Tazri Ally Tribal deck without any way to tutor for it, not knowing what it
was.
● PSize = 99
● NSPop = 1
● SSize = 7
● NSSam = 1
● HyGeo = 7%
The odds of having exactly one Food Chain in your opening hand is a pitiful 7%. If you
play ONE HUNDRED games of EDH you would see Food Chain + 6 random cards in only 7
games. This illustrates why you can't rely on having access to Food Chain (or ANY single
card) consistently without including what I call Effective Copies. In 4-of formats you can run 4
Lightning Bolt and 4 Lava Spike giving you a 65.4% chance of having 1 or more copies of a
spell that deals 3 damage in your opening hand, but in singleton EDH you won’t have the
same odds even if you run 8 unique Lightning Bolt effects - the sample size of an EDH deck is
39 cards larger meaning your odds of drawing that effect in your opener drops to 45.6% - and
the even worse news? There aren’t 8 unique cards in Magic that have the effect of “Deal 3
damage to target opponent” for R without additional costs or conditions. There are 2. So how
do we get more copies of the same effect?
Moving forward we're going to be looking at Effective Copies of a card or card type.
This is how CEDH decks work within the restrictive confines of a singleton format. We have a
7% chance of Food Chain, so what if we run cards that will be functionally equivalent to Food
Chain? For this example the Effective Copies of Food Chain are Demonic Consultation,
Enlightened Tutor, Lim-Dul's Vault, Tainted Pact, Vampiric Tutor, Imperial Seal. Every one of
these 6 spells, uninterrupted, will guarantee us access to Food Chain. Now that we know
what Effective Copies are, let’s get back to the question!
What are the odds of having an Effective Copy of Food Chain in our opener?
● PSize = 99
● SSize = 7
40
● NSSam = 1
● HGP = 33%
Our result is 33%, but this is a little deceiving. See, the HGP is going to be the odds of
*exactly* one Effective Copy of Food Chain in our opener. We'll need to check the cumulative
probabilities to draw deeper conclusions. Because all 6 of our Effective Copies of Food Chain
can be used to fetch other important parts of our deck, we probably won't mind having more
than one copy. The odds of having 1 *or more* copies of Food Chain in our opening hand are
a respectable 41.1%!
So if Demonic Tutor is so great, why aren’t we running Diabolic Tutor in cEDH? Well,
we don’t need to, we can just jam Effective Copies of the things we’d be Demonic Tutoring
for. Increasing the amount of Effective Copies we have in our singleton deck, if they are
equally or near quality in tempo/mana cost, allows us to replicate the consistency of 4-of
MtG. Let’s look at some top decks!
Tazri requires us to assemble Food Chain + an infinite creature mana enabler. How
many copies does it run of each?
That’s a lot of tutoring! But gee Foss, Tazri is a 5c deck with unique tutors. Do other decks
run as many effective copies?
Gitrog Dredge requires us to assemble a discard outlet and Dakmor Salvage to win. How
many copies does it run of each?
41
Momir Vig Hackball requires us to assemble a Hack effect and any green creature! The deck
also can use Vizier of the Menagerie to turn any green creature into a hack, meaning Wordly
Tutor and GSZ are also EC.