PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

INDEPENDENT POLL

FALL 2010 – NOVEMBER 2ND

ELECTIONS

“THE
THE BENCHMARK OF MAINE PUBLIC OPINION
OPINION”
5 Milk Street, Portland, Maine 04101
Tel: (207) 871-8622
www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

Named Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 by:

 2 BACKGROUND
AC G O N & METHODOLOGY
M O O OG

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group
 Background
3

… Pan Atlantic SMS Group is Maine’s largest independent marketing research and
marketing consulting firm and is currently in its 26th year of successful operation.
operation

… Pan Atlantic SMS group conducts statewide Omnibus surveys on Maine public policy,
economic and business issues on a regular basis. The results presented in this report
ATLANTIC SMS GROUP
P

are a follow up to our Elections 2010 poll released on October 19th, 2010 and the
third in our series of 2010 Elections polls.

… Pan Atlantic SMS Group reserves all copyright and property rights associated with
this polling report. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS
Group Omnibus Poll™ must identify the source of information. Reproduction, by any
party other than the media, is subject to express approval by Pan Atlantic SMS
Group. For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan
Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by e-mail at
pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.
PAN A

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Methodology
4
… The most recent Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ was conducted over three
nights
g between October 25th and 27th,, 2010. This independent
p survey
y data on the
November 2010 elections is being released to the Maine media in the public interest.

… A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 “likely” Maine voters was
interviewed by telephone. Each Congressional District had approximately half of
the sample. The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following
criteria:
¾ Registered Maine voter
¾ Voted in the 2008 Presidential Elections
¾ “Certain”, “Very likely”, or “Likely” to vote in the November 2010 Elections.
OGY

¾ Do not, nor anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media
firm.
HODOLO

… The poll was conducted by phone, in our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantic’s
team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used.

… Survey results were weighted to ensure that the poll results are representative of the
METH

various demographic segments of Maine’s population.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Methodology
5

… It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of
d
decimals.
l

… Although the survey instrument was administered only to registered voters who said that
they are likely to vote on November 2nd, the results contained herein represent a snapshot
off voters’
t ’ opinions
i i att a point
i t iin titime. They
Th dod nott purportt to
t predict
di t fi
finall election
l ti results.
lt

… The sample was stratified based on the most recently available U.S. Census of Population
and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95
percentt confidence
fid llevel.l Thi
This means th
thatt if th
the survey w
were tto b
be repeated,
t d 95 titimes outt
of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin of
error.
OGY
HODOLO

The Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll is an independent poll. Pan Atlantic SMS
Group has not been paid by or acted as volunteer to any of the campaigns on which
data is reported in this poll.
METH

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 6 KEY FINDINGS

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new
governor. If today were Election Day, who would
you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]
7

40% 36.8%
3 %
35%
30.6%
30%
25% 21.8%
29.8%
20% 20.8% Vote
CTIONS

15% Lean
16.5%
10% 7.3%
5% 9.8% 2.8%
7.0% 5.3% 1.1%
010 ELEC

0%
Paul LePage (R ) Elliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided

Vote 29.8% 20.8% 16.5% 1.5% 0.8% --

Lean 7.0% 9.8% 5.3% 1.3% 0.3% --
NOVEEMBER 20

Total 36.8% 30.6% 21.8% 2.8% 1.1% 7.3%

… Paul LePage (R) has the support of 36.8% of “likely voters” (vote yes / lean yes) and leads
the field by a margin of 6.2 percentage points.
… Eliot Cutler (I) follows, with 30.5% of “likely voters” and Libby Mitchell (D) is at 21.8%

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new
governor. If today were Election Day, who would
you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]
8

… Shawn Moody (2.8%)

(2 8%) and Kevin Scott (1.1%)
(1 1%) bring up the rear of the field.
field

… While the margin for Paul LePage in this poll is not quite as high as those
NS

reported in the just released Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling robocall polls,
VEMBER 2010 ELLECTION

he continues to maintain the lead.

… Nineteen p
percent (19.0%)
( ) of Paul LePage’s
g support
pp comes from “leaners” ((7.0%
÷ 36.8%), while 32.0% of Eliot Cutler and 24.3% of Libby Mitchell supporters
are “leaners”.

… The undecided vote level is 7.3% of the ‘likely voter” population.

NOV

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Polling Averages

Average
Pan Atlantic SMS Rasmussen Public Policy of all 3
Group (Live (Robocall poll) (Robocall poll) polls
interviewer poll) (R l
(Released
dOOct. 28th) Oct. 29th)
(Released Oct
(Released Oct. 29)
LePage (R) 37% 40% 40% 39%
NS

Cutler (I) 31% 26% 28% 28%

VEMBER 2010 ELLECTION

Mitchell (D) 22% 26% 24% 24%

Moody (I) 3% * 4% 4%
Scott (I) 1% * 1% 1%
Undecided 7% 8% 2% 6%

… Averaging all three polls, Paul LePage has an eleven point lean over Eliot Cutler
and a fifteen point lead over Libby Mitchell.
- All percentage points are rounded to yield whole numbers.
NOV

* The Rasmussen poll did not offer Shawn Moody or Kevin Scott as choices.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group 9

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If
today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]

10
Gubernatorial Race Choice by Political Affiliation – Top Three
80% 71.4%
%
70%
60%
50% 44.2% 46.2%
40% 30.8% 32.8%
30%
CTIONS

18.8%
20% 10.3% 12.5%
8.7% 6.4%
10% 3.8% 3.0%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Eliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Undecided
010 ELEC

Democrat Republican Independent

… Paul LePage has the support of 71.4% of Republicans, 30.8% of Independents and 10.3%
of Democrats.
NOVEEMBER 20

… Eliot Cutler is supported by 44.2% of Independents, 32.8 % of Democrats and 18.8% of

Republicans.
… Libby Mitchell has the support of 46.2% of Democrats, 8.7% of Independents and 3.8%
of Republicans.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If today were
Election Day, who would you vote for?
[C did
[Candidate options
i were read
d and
d rotated]
d]

11

Gubernatorial Race by Congressional District

45%

40% 38.7%
35.0%
35%
CTIONS

30.1% 30.9%
30%

25% 23.3%
20.1%
010 ELEC

20%

15%

10% 8.8%
5.8%
NOVEEMBER 20

4.4%
5%
1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Eliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided

1st Congressional District 2nd Congressional District

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group
 Voting Pattern by Congressional District
12

Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2

Paul LePage
g ((R)) 35.0% 38.7%
CTIONS

Eliot Cutler (I) 30.1% 30.9%

Libby Mitchell (D) 23.3% 20.1%

010 ELEC

Shawn Moody (I) 4.4% 1.0%

Kevin Scott (I) 1.5% 0.5%

NOVEEMBER 20

Undecided 5.8% 8.8%

… Paul LePage has the highest support level in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts
(35.0% 1st CD and 38.7% 2nd CD).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If today were
Election Day, who would you vote for?
[C did
[Candidate options
i were read
d and
d rotated]
d]

13

Gubernatorial Race by Gender

45%
39.1%
40%
34.5%
35% 32.0%
28.9%
30%
CTIONS

24.1%
25%
19.3%
20%
15%
010 ELEC

10% 8.6%
5.9%
5% 3.6%
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Elliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided
NOVEEMBER 20

Males Females

… No candidate has the majority support of either gender. LePage and Cutler have
reasonably equal support levels among both males and females, while women tend to
support Mitchell
Mi h ll more than
h men.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Voters byy Age
g Segment
g (vote
( / lean))
14

LePage Cutler Mitchell Other Undecided

Age Segment

18-34
32 1%
32.1% 23 2%
23.2% 33 9%
33.9% 5 4%
5.4% 5 4%
5.4%
CTIONS

years

35-54
39.9% 27.4% 20.2% 4.3% 8.2%
010 ELEC

years

55+
33.3% 38.5% 19.3% 2.2% 6.7%
years
NOVEEMBER 20

… Paul LePage does best in the 35-54 year age segment (39.9%) while Eliot Cutler does best
in the 55+ segment (38.5%) and Libby Mitchell does best in the 18
18-34
34 year segment
(33.9%).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 QUESTION 1 – CASINO QUESTION
Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at
a single
g site in Oxford County, y, subject
j to local approval,
pp , with part
p of the
profits going to specific state, local and tribal programs?
15

Question 1: Oxford County Casino

60%
50.6%
50% 46.8%
4.8%
2.5%
40%
CTIONS

Lean
30%
Vote
45.8% 44.3%
20%
010 ELEC

10%
2.8%

0%
NOVEEMBER 20

Vote For Vote Against

g Undecided

… At this point, the margin in favor of the casino referendum is low, at 3.8 percentage
points. (50.6% vote / lean “yes” vs. 46.9% vote / lean “no”).

… The undecided level has declined by 3.4 percentage points since our mid-October poll.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 QUESTION 1 – CASINO QUESTION
Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at a single site in Oxford
County, subject to local approval, with part of the profits going to specific state, local and tribal
programs?
16

… The “leaning
leaning yes”
yes vote (softer vote) (4.8%)
(4 8%) is approximately twice that of the
“leaning no” vote (2.5%).
NS

… Voters in the 2nd Congressional District (50.0% against, 45.9% for) are more
VEMBER 2010 ELLECTION

opposed to the casino than those in the 1st Congressional District (54.9% for,
43.7% against).

… Should turnout levels in the 2nd Congressional District be stronger than those in
the 1st Congressional District, this could impact the final result.
NOV

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

17 KEY POLL
O DEMOGRAPHIC
MOG A C DATA
A A

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Key Poll Demographic Data
18

GENDER %
Females 51%
Males 49%

POLITICAL AFFILIATION %
Democrats 38%
Republicans 34%
Independents / Unenrolled 26%
Other 2%

BY AGE SEGMENT %
18-34 15%
35-44 26%
45-54 26%
55-64 19%
65+ 15%

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 19

5 MILK STREET
PORTLAND, MAINE 04101
207.871.8622
WWW PANATLANTICSMSGROUPCOM
WWW.PANATLANTICSMSGROUP.COM

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group