K ~ GRYPHON —— ANALYTICAL METHOD FOR EVALUATION OF TOTAL SYSTEM OPTIONS® January 1996 Prepared by Paul Durkin, P.Eng. Gryphon International Engineering Services Inc. St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada www.gryphoneng.com GRYPHON INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING SERVICES INC. ‘SUITE 404, CORBLOC, 80 KING STREET, ST. CATHARINES, ONTARIO, CANADA LOA 71 (905) 964-8994 E-mail: gryphon@gryphoneng.com Web Site: woANALYTICAL METHOD FOR EVALUATION OF TOTAL SYSTEM OPTIONS Paul Durkin, Guy Rispoli Gryphon International Engineering Services Inc. St. Catharines, Ontario ABSTRACT Gryphon has encountered, with many of its clients, a general lack of consensus om a future strategy for their Heating and/or Chilled Water Systems. As an engineering company which specializes in power plants, cogeneration and chiller systems, we are often requested to carry out studies to determine if cogeneration is viable or if a piping distribution system should be upgraded, etc. Only in a few instances, however, have we been requested to analyze and model the entire heating or cooling system to provide a baseline performance and economic model of the system which can be used as a basis for decisions. Without a total system approach, options tend to be evaluated individually. A total energy total plant perspective provides a method to determine what effects changes in operation will have on present performance and economics and to allow multiple options to be investigated to provide the client with a true picture of the process for future operations. This paper presents an example of a total system model which allows various scenarios to be investigated. It provides a client with concrete information on the effects of centralized or decentralized expansion, sizing of future units based on load growth forecasts, unit retirement schedules, possible fuel types, possible prime mover types, efficiency vs. capital cost comparisons, as well as other options. ‘The total system modelling method provides the client with an analysis, in a graphical and tabular format, of the options that should be considered and the type of future expansion that provides the best opportunities and least risks. Key Words: Total System Strategy, Constraints, Load Profiles, Heat Balance Model, Aspiration Levels. 1.0 INTRODUCTION During shifts in social, technical or economic trends, there becomes an urgent need to develop a strategy to meet these changing trends. Often this need is seen as a requirement for a consensus on a strategy for long-term development. It is very difficult, however, to develop a long-term strategy when conditions are changing rapidly. The result is often a flurry of activity and investigation followed by a period of wait and see. Each time a new trend occurs, the process is started over, often from the beginning. This problem is exaggerated in the utility supply sectors where market conditions, user demands and available options are all changing rapidly. Fast response time is essential but needs to be made with a good understanding of the risks involved, The potential effects on the present operation as well as lost ‘opportunities due to the selection of a particular option must be accounted for to establish a decision-making policy. Options available to a utlity supplier are staggering, varying across the spectrum from fuel switching, more centralized or decentralized systems, a complete technology shift, deregulation of utilities, life extension and/or optimization, as wel as other options. ‘This struggle has lead to the development of a total system. strategy. This strategy provides the analytical data required to decide which options a utility supplier should pursue. The method provides the flexibility to modify the data as required and to re-evaluate each option on a consistent basis and ina manner which addresses the major concerns and constraints of the utility supplier. “The total system strategy provides a method to determine the effects that changes in an operation will have ‘on performance and economics. It allows multiple options to be investigated which provides a detailed picture of the system for future operations. ‘The total system analysis can be broken down into three separate sub-tasks. GRYPHON INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING SERVICES INC. 112 ‘Task | - Analyzing the Existing System The first and most important step of analytically evaluating the total system is determining what resources the utility supplier has available, what requirements the end user has, and how they presently interact. This applies to both the source parameters, such as the present equipment, available resources and electrical demand and consumption, and the users parameters such as building heating, cooling and electrical loads. ‘The purpose of this phase is to establish the system geometry and the present operating capabilities. Each end user area should be analyzed individually at various moments in time to increase the flexibility of the model and provide a more accurate tool for predicting future requirements. For each user area, the analyst must determine the type of energy required and the amount required at each interval of time. Most facilities have access to historical data collected over a particular interval whether hourly, once per shift, daily, ete. ‘The system model must include a suitable time scale to account for significant interdependencies between variables. These variables include energy requirements (electrical and thermal), user production capability, uncontrolled environmental variables, and constraints due to outages, equipment capacities, external export limitations, environmental discharge limits and availability of capital. The time scale selected for the model can be hourly, daily, monthly or annually and may depend on the variable being investigated. ‘The time scale is dictated by the complexity of the interaction of the above-mentioned variables. Appendix A illustrates an example of a possible campus heating system. Figure Al represents a system which produces superheated steam for a campus district heating system and electricity for campus power demands. The plant has three solid fuel (coal) boilers and one natural gas boiler with N® 2 oil backup that supplies the campus district heating system and two extraction-condensing steam turbines and one backpressure steam turbine. The model also includes a possible future gas turbine (20 MW) and Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG). The various campus buildings are represented by sinks with their corresponding steam requirements. A simplified condensate return system and makeup water system are shown to complete the system cycle. ‘The model can be expanded to include pipeline heat loss, trap station ‘discharges and condensate collection depending on the desired complexity. ‘The heat balance diagram is an important tool which is used to analyze the existing data shown in Figures A2 - Ad and AG A8. Figure A? illustrates the hourly average heating loads supplied to campus, typically developed from hourly data collected for the previous 12 months. Based on this data, Figure A3 was developed to represent the maximum, minimum and average steam requirements. Similar figures are shown for electricity consumption in Figures A6 and A7. 1c is important to define and evaluate all relevant factors in the system. Furthermore, itis important to determine if these factors are significant enough to require analysis on an hourly basis and what impact one factor has on another factor, The theory behind having a total plant model which incorporates the significant variables is that the impact of making a change in the existing system can be evaluated. Although it can be time consuming and difficult to incorporate these factors, the result will provide a reliable decision making guide. Any short cuts should, therefore, be taken carefully ‘Task II - Developing the Total System Strategy Once the current system is established, the second phase of the analysis can begin. ‘This phase involves using the data developed during Task I to determine the new and/or replacement systems that will satisfy current and future requirements. Operating conditions established in the system model dictate the system constraints involved. GRYPHON INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING SERVICES INC, 2