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  • Forecasting Basics

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    changez khan
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    The document contains monthly sales data and forecasting error metrics for 12 months using 4 different forecasting methods: Holt's, SES, WMA, and SMA. Holt's method had the lowest MAD and MSE, while SMA had the lowest MAPE and BIAS. Overall, SMA performed best with the lowest error metrics, followed by Holt's method. WMA had the highest MAPE while SES had the highest negative BIAS.

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    Forecasting Basics

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    The document contains monthly sales data and forecasting error metrics for 12 months using 4 different forecasting methods: Holt's, SES, WMA, and SMA. Holt's method had the lowest MAD and MSE, while SMA had the lowest MAPE and BIAS. Overall, SMA performed best with the lowest error metrics, followed by Holt's method. WMA had the highest MAPE while SES had the highest negative BIAS.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    5 views12 pages

    Forecasting Basics

    Uploaded by

    changez khan
    The document contains monthly sales data and forecasting error metrics for 12 months using 4 different forecasting methods: Holt's, SES, WMA, and SMA. Holt's method had the lowest MAD and MSE, while SMA had the lowest MAPE and BIAS. Overall, SMA performed best with the lowest error metrics, followed by Holt's method. WMA had the highest MAPE while SES had the highest negative BIAS.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 12

    Period Month Sales

    1 Jan 56
    2 Feb 74
    3 Mar 52
    4 Apr 91
    5 May 10
    6 June 60
    7 July 55
    8 Aug 49
    9 Sep 56
    10 Oct 52
    11 Nov 55
    12 Dec 54
    Period Month Sales Forecast (3 Period) Error Absolute Error Percent Error
    1 Jan 37
    2 Feb 74
    3 Mar 52 100
    4 Apr 91 54.3 -36.7 36.7 0.40
    5 May 10 72.3 62.3 62.3 6.23 90
    6 June 60 51.0 -9.0 9.0 0.15
    7 July 55 53.7 -1.3 1.3 0.02 80
    8 Aug 49 41.7 -7.3 7.3 0.15
    9 Sep 56 54.7 -1.3 1.3 0.02 70
    10 Oct 52 53.3 1.3 1.3 0.03
    11 Nov 55 52.3 -2.7 2.7 0.05 60
    12 Dec 54 54.3 0.3 0.3 0.01
    53.7 50

    40
    MAD 13.6
    MAPE 0.78 30
    BIAS 0.6
    MSE 597.47
    20

    10

    0
    1 2
    Chart Title
    100

    90

    80

    70

    60
    Sa l es
    50 Foreca s
    t
    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    Sa l es
    Foreca s
    t
    Period Month Sales Forecast (3 period) Error Absolute Error Percent Error
    1 Jan 37
    2 Feb 74
    100
    3 Mar 52
    4 Apr 91 55.6 -35.4 35.4 0.39
    90
    5 May 10 75.9 65.9 65.9 6.59
    6 June 60 42.7 -17.3 17.3 0.29
    80
    7 July 55 51.2 -3.8 3.8 0.07
    8 Aug 49 47.5 -1.5 1.5 0.03
    70
    9 Sep 56 53 -3 3 0.05
    10 Oct 52 53.7 1.7 1.7 0.03
    60
    11 Nov 55 52.6 -2.4 2.4 0.04
    12 Dec 54 54.3 0.3 0.3 0.01 50
    53.9
    40
    Weight1 0.5 MAD 14.59
    Weight2 0.3 MAPE 0.83 30
    Weight3 0.2 BIAS 0.50
    MSE 658.854444444 20

    10

    0
    1 2
    Chart Title
    100

    90

    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    Sal es Forecast
    9
    Period Month Sales Forecast Error Absolute Error Percent Error
    1 Jan 37 37 0.00 0.00 0.00
    2 Feb 74 37.0 -37.00 37.00 0.50
    3 Mar 52 59.2 7.16 7.16 0.14 100
    4 Apr 91 54.9 -36.13 36.13 0.40 90
    5 May 10 76.5 66.51 66.51 6.65
    6 June 60 36.7 -23.33 23.33 0.39 80
    7 July 55 50.6 -4.35 4.35 0.08 70
    8 Aug 49 53.3 4.25 4.25 0.09
    60
    9 Sep 56 50.7 -5.29 5.29 0.09
    10 Oct 52 53.9 1.88 1.88 0.04 50
    11 Nov 55 52.8 -2.25 2.25 0.04
    40
    12 Dec 54 54.1 0.10 0.10 0.00
    54.0 30

    20
    0.59901 MAD 15.69
    MAPE 0.70 10
    BIAS -2.37
    0
    MSE 647.29 1 2 3 4
    Chart Title

    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    Sal es Foreca st
    Period Month Sales Level Trend Forecast Error Absolute Error
    1 Jan 37 37 0
    2 Feb 74 44.12 3.99 37.00 -37.00 37.00
    3 Mar 52 48.86 4.41 48.11 -3.89 3.89
    4 Apr 91 60.53 8.48 53.27 -37.73 37.73
    5 May 10 57.65 2.11 69.01 59.01 59.01
    6 June 60 59.81 2.14 59.76 -0.24 0.24
    7 July 55 60.61 1.39 61.95 6.95 6.95
    8 Aug 49 59.50 -0.01 62.00 13.00 13.00
    9 Sep 56 58.82 -0.39 59.49 3.49 3.49
    10 Oct 52 57.19 -1.08 58.43 6.43 6.43
    11 Nov 55 55.90 -1.20 56.11 1.11 1.11
    12 Dec 54 54.56 -1.27 54.70 0.70 0.70
    53.29
    MAD 15.41
    MAPE 0.68
    alpha 0.192539 BIAS 1.07
    beta 0.559902 MSE 596.58
    Percent Error

    0.50
    0.07
    0.41
    5.90
    0.00
    0.13
    0.27
    0.06
    0.12
    0.02
    0.01
    Holt's SES WMA SMA
    MAD 15.41251 15.68825 14.58889 13.59259
    MAPE 0.68226 0.70118 0.83361 0.78492
    BIAS 1.07487 -2.37053 0.50000 0.62963
    MSE 596.57544 647.28578 658.85444 597.46914

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