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Advanced Corporate Finance College Aantekeningen College All Lectures PDF
Advanced Corporate Finance College Aantekeningen College All Lectures PDF
ACF session 1
Slide 4 p.2
Financial constraints/credit rationing:
a firm is constraint when it has a need for external finance and is unable to obtain
external finance
Lamont et al (2007): by financial constraints we mean frictions that prevent the firm
from funding all desired investments
Before in 1980, they said that the interest rate clears the market for external funds, if
demand is higher than supply, the interest rate will increase (new equilibrium).
However, credit rationing means that there exists firms willing to borrow at the
interest rate or even more, but are unable to obtain the loan. In these times, the said that
this credit rationing or market failure resulted of a large shock (1) or because of the
result of government intervention (2).
(1): If demand had a sudden large increase fromD1 to D2, banks may not be able to
observe this rise correctly, perception of the bank may be different (bv D*). Later on,
they realise it because of the still remaining excess demand, en they change their
perception a little bit more towards D , and again…until they finally get to D2. For
instance, there could have been credit rationing of 6 months.
THIS IS NOT MARKET FAILURE!
(2): I f the market is working fine on their own, but because of government interaction
or government failure they set u a maximum of interest rate, demand will be higher than
what banks will be willing to offer
THIS IS NOT MARKET FAILURE!
Later on, it has been proven that there is such a thing as market failure namely because
of asymmetric information between demand and supply: not both parties have the same
amount of information. Firms have information that banks cannot observe.
2 known characteristics that lead to market failure under asymmetric information are
adverse selection(1) and Moral hazard(2).
(1) the people approaching you aren t the people you want to be approached by such
as problematic firms who want a loan, or an insurance company where only risky
people apply. Bv. If 10% of your 100 customers are risky and the costs are 1000
per person when something goes wrong, that means that you will need 10 (10%
of 100)times a 1000 or 10 000 dollars. In other words, you will ask each
customer to pay dollars, for the risky people that s nothing, while for the safe
people that is a lot of money. The safe people wont take the deal and you will end
up with only risky people.
(2) Once you are insured, you take more risks. Those 90% safe people of which
suddenly some of them are taking more risks, this mean that there will be more
risky people than the 10%.
Slide , , … p.
Banks face risky firms and safe firms, they now the distribution but NOT which
type each individual firm is. The safe firms have large certainty of repayment but
a lower return, while risky firms have low chances of success but when they do,
they have large returns. Banks choose their supply and thus implicitly set the
interest rate such that they maximize their profits. Logically, increasing the
interest rate will increase their profits… BUT safe firms will nit accept high
interest rates, only risky firms will. This means there is no linear relation
between interest rate and profits, because the higher the rate, the less safe firms
will apply for a loan, the more the pool will exist of risky firms. From a certain
interest rate, this will lead to adverse selection.
This means there exist a rational market failure: the profits will increase with the
interest rate to a certain level where safe firms start to drop out, from that point,
profits wil decrease with the interest rate. Rational for banks not to lend beyond
that point, even though there are firms with a positive demand for credit at such
a higher interest rate=credit rationed
2. Holmstrom and Tirole model (1997) moral hazard
This time, banks are facing firms with the same risk type, but hey do have
different levels of assets. So they have the same riskiness of firm/projects but a
different amount of ex-ante collateral. The chance of success does NOT depend on
the collateral of the firms, but on the EFFORT of the entrepreneur (high effort
high chance of success and vice versa). Again banks will choose their supply as
such to maximize their profits and these profits will depend on the success of
entrepreneurs and thus their effort. BUT entrepreneurs also benefit from leisure,
the more effort, the fewer time left for leisure. In other words, they may promise
the bank they will exert a lot of effort, but once they receive the credit, change
their effort. The effort can not be observed by the banks which is why firms will
need to pledge a minimum level of assets to the bank, this way, firms incur some
of the investment risk themselves.
Now firms have something at stake, the bank is sure that they will exert high
effort. As a consequence, firms with insufficient assets or collateral will not get
their projects financed = credit rationed. Due to moral hazard under asymmetric
information, it is rational for banks to do this.
Slide 2,p. 5.
grown more, there will be an impact on liquidity an maybe even bankruptcy, also
investments will be lower than optimal.
than yours. Measure of loans= measure of supply. This 1,7% is an average effect, this
doesn t mean that when loans increases with 1%, all firms will know a employment rate
increase of 1,7%. Thy look further and make a distinction between small, medium and
large companies. The increase is not sign. for large firms, the supply shock doesn t seem
to matter, it does for medium sized firms and even more for small firms. WHY? Small
firms are heavily dependent on bank loans, while large firms have other possibilities,
they do not need to cut back on employment. Small firms are also more risky and they
have less collateral (2 models).
They also give us evidence that when a firm has access (large firms) to other forms of
financing, such as the bond market, they are less likely to be rationed, when firms do not
have access, they don t have alternatives and these are rationed.
Overall, the biggest effect found for small firms with no access to the bond market, these
firms are most rationed.
ACF Session 2
Slide 2, p.1
First we had Fazari et al (1988) tried to find evidence at firm level, even without good
databases. Before the s, there were very few databases, only with a macro-
perspective. In other words there was only evidence of financial constraints on macro
level. (now we have much more databases containing financial information for every
company). They used investment-cash flow sensitivities (ICFS) to tell if a firm was
financially constraint or not.
Later, you have Kaplan and Zingales (1997) who had some critique on the ICFS. They
though it was a bad way to look at financial constraints.
You also have indices of financial constraints: (index is the some of few components)
- Kaplan-Zingales index (Lamont et al, 2001)
- Whited-Wu index (Whited and Whu, 2006)
- Hadlock-Pierce index (Hadlock and Pierce, 2010)
All these measures are INDIRECT measures! Balance sheet items will not give us a 100%
clear measures, SURVAY DATA can provide a DIRECT measure, directly asking firms if
they are constraint or not.
FAZARI ET AL:
First they state, that the capital market aren t perfect and that credit rationing exists. In
other words, they also believe that banks wont always give every bank the funds they
need to realize their optimal planned investments. In other words, realised investments
aren t equal to optimal planned investments when firms are constraint. They further say
that the amount of CASH a firm holds is very important, they see them as funds that are
always available en that the realised investments will depend on that their CASH FLOW.
Firms that face frictions will depend on their own cash flow.
Why is Q important? If the market value is higher than de book value, this means that
investors are expecting higher profits, so more investment opportunities bv. Building
more factories.
Fazari split up the group of firms into low dividend payout firms and high dividend
payout firms. The reason for this, is that high dividend payout firms aren t worried
about not being able to pursue the opportunities, they can simply go to the bank, in
other words these firms are not constraint. While on the other hand, low dividend
payout firms do worry, and might suffer frictions, they might need their cash because
they aren t sure the bank will give it to them, they are constraint.
(payout ratio= amount of cash of the firms you pay out)
Other authors have copied this approach by using firm size (smaller firms have less
access to several finance options, also asymmetric information are higher for smaller
firms, which leads to frictions for small firms since it is harder for banks to screen small
firms and small firms will have a higher ICFS), group membership (internal capital
markets, bv. In Japan firms can be part of a group with connections to banks, if you are
member, if you belong, your ICFS will be low, their membership of a group gives them
access to there own bank), …
that was financially constraint, had a lot of cash, but the reason was that their weren t
opportunities, for instance because of slow growth…
Surprisingly, their findings were: NFC and LNFC had the highest ICFS and LFC and FC the
lowest. No necessarily positive relation between FC and ICFS.
They also use 4 categories of FC: NFC, NLFC, LFC, FC and the financial
characteristics predict to which category a firm belongs to. Ordered logit
estimation of financial characteristics on the 4 categories for the 49 countries
revealed that:
KZI = − , CF/K + , Q+ , Debt/TA −
39, Div/K − , Cash/K
For each firm, you will get one value for KZI, high or low and then you can even
compare things between these two. The higher KZI, the more constraint the firms
are.
CF/K: the more CF you have, the lower the index because you have more internal
funds, you are more profitable. So the smaller the chance you will be FC.
Q: market-to-book ratio: if you do not have investment opportunities, you also
won t be constraint. If Q is very high, you will have very good opportunities, so
only then the chance exist that you will be constraint.
Debt/TA: more debt, more risky and more likely to be FC.
Div/K: when you pay out more dividends, you aren t worried etc, see earlier.
ADVANTAGE of this index: it is easier to use because you do not need to calculate
the Q (market value). Also, it is applicable to almost any dataset!
They applied the same methodology as Kaplan and Zingales (10-k files… but on a
random sample of 356 firms. For all these firms they look at the 10k-files and classify
them from NFC to FC. They replicated the KZI BUT only find levereage and cash flow
to be robustly similar to KZI.
They replicated Kaplan because Kaplan wasn t looking at a random sample! He
worked with a very specific group of firms with low dividends payouts!! So it is very
logic that in the new sample, they aren t all the same!
They also replicated WWI and find only leverage, cash flow and size to be robustly
similar to WWI.
So the redid both BUT with a RANDOM and BIGGER sample and over a LONGER
period and it is also a more recent study! KZI was out-dated.
They even went further…
They then test a number of financial characteristics irrespective of any theoretical
model, they regress them and took a look if they play any role.
Their findings: none of these characteristics matter, only firms size and firm age!!! in
other words, none of them mattered once they put age and size into the regression!
(the older and the bigger, the less FC)
Ordered logit estimation of firm size and age on the categories of financial
constraints for the 356 firms revealed that:
HPI = − , ln TA + , ln TA)^2 −0,040age
Using KZI, WWI or HPI implies strong assumptions:
- parameter stability across samples
- parameter stability across time
Solution: if you wish to use these indices: apply the same methodology and
replicate these indices on your own sample, what was true 10 years ago is not
necessarily true today.
Euro area vs. EU:the first is where they pay with euro s, are part of the
monetary union with one central bank: ECB, the latter are all the countries
that agreed upon the Maastricht verdrag.
(1) When this is high, when it is booming, you will have less opportunities at the top
so you will also less likely be constraint. Also cash flow is influenced by the
business cycle: will be high when it is booming. Today, where are we in the
business cycle? In recession with g=0%, so no growth for the next year, the
average growth is 2% for developed countries, while it is 10% for developing
countries.
(2) Looking at the monetary policies, the financial sector development and quality.
Loans are trying to be as cheap as possible, so even with no growth, you can get a
loan when you have a good project.
(3) Has to do with the quality of the law. The quality of the law matters: high quality
will lead to much more loans because they find some quality solutions, contracts,
check ups etc., putting your own assets in your firm, effort… covenants with
the loan are better where the quality of the law is high! (you can ask your money
back).
(4) What is a public credit register (PCR)? They record every loan any firm has,
they also give information about the borrower and the lender (the amount they
lend/borrow, the currency, has the firm failed to pay back on time with previous
loans… . It is a register where banks can observe all the loans of all the firms.
Credit bureaus give firms a certain credit rating AA,BBB,… . Both help for the
information asymmetry, they give the information needed to make important
decisions. In Belgium, the PCR is the National Bank; they do this because it is an
easy way to see how banks are supplying firms, to see how the credit goes in
Belgium, to get a better overview on such matters.
Why are PCRs so important? They enable banks to measure the risk of giving a
loan to a certain firm. This will also reduce the equilibrium credit rationing.
When there is a credit register, there will be more credit given by the banks! Countries
without such registers will know more firms with financial constraints. It also helps
small firms to obtain bank credit.
Also credit rights will have an impact on credit, because they give the lender protection,
and the more the law protects them, the more they will give credit.
3 years after the installation of a bureau has a huge impact on the average private credit
to GDP ratio. In other words, a huge increase! For the installation of credit registers, the
increase is smaller, probably because bureaus say more about the risk and in general
give more information. With public register, the risks might not be seen; it depends a lot
on the richness of the register.
There is not much known about the discouraged borrowers yet. We do know that they
are more frequent (about 2x) than rejected borrowers. We do not know in which
category to put them. Could they have gotten a loan? We don t know… so are they
constraint or not? They are in need of finance, so yes.
The reason why one firm applies and another doesn t has to do with the ROI. When
the ROI is high, you are more likely to apply for a loan. When your ROI (total gain of
the loan) is higher than the total coast to get a loan, you will apply.
When the expected interest rate is very high (R), you are more likely not to apply.
Also, when the tax rate (t) is high, you pay less interest, so the higher the tax rate, the
more like you will be to apply. The opportunity cost (OC) is for instance when you
could have gotten credit more easily through the bond market, so the more
alternatives you have, the higher the OC will be and the more discouraged you will
get. The application cost (AC) is also been taken into account, it is the fixed
transaction cost to apply for a loan.
The difference between the ROI of good and bad firms are the AC/(1-se) and AC/se.
Banks make errors, the higher the errors are (se=screening errors), the lower the
AC/se ratio becomes for bad firms. If se=0, AC will go to infinity for bad firms so all
bad firms would be discouraged which would be a good thing of course! But
unfortunately, there are also se for good firms, which means that some of the good
firms have been perceived to be bad due to screenings errors.
The regression model is as followed where DB (discouraged borrower) equals 1 if a
firm is discouraged and 0 when it is not and applies for a bank loan:
the higher the profit, less likely to be discouraged because you have a higher ROI,
so it is more likely to have a ROI that is bigger than the total cost, so we expect alfa1
to be negative.
trade credit=OC: if you borrow a lot of money of suppliers, you are less likely to go
to a bank, we expect alfa2 to be positive. (the higher the OC, the higher the total cost,
the bigger the chance your ROI will fall below the total cost and you are more likely
to be discouraged)
interest-rate: the higher the amount you must pay, the higher the total cost
tax rate: a higher tax rate means there will be a larger part deducted from the
interest expenses and so the more interesting it seems to finance with debt? We
expect a negative impact.
Size and age: The bigger you are, the more AC (fixed cost) will be relatively
smaller. The older you are, the more skills you will have to do these kinds of
applications. In both cases, your AC goes down, so we expect for both a negative sign
Now the DB is also included, if you are discouraged, you have NO access, when you
apply, there is still a chance so we expect alfa0 to be negative.
Results:
DB has lower EG, AG and AVG. For instance the AG is 3,4% lower then a firm who did
apply for a loan.
In that period, when the research was done, the average EG was around 3%, since DB
have 2,7% less EG, this means there is almost no EG (3%-2,7%) for discouraged
borrowers!!
They further looked at the differences between those firms who were discouraged
and the firms who did apply and were either rejected or approved (in other words
we split up the applying group): between the rejected group and the DB we see no
significant difference since they both do not have access to loans the growth isn t
significantly different), however the difference between approved and DB is even
bigger than before the split up! It also proves that loans are the reason for growth
etc since we do not see a difference between rejected and DB.
If the approval value is high, the firm is likely to be approved, if it is low however, it
is likely to be rejected.
Results show that most DB have low approval values, so it is better that they didn t
apply.
Does the value of the house depend on the size of the mortgage?
It is independent, not connected! WHY??
M&M Proposition 1:
Independent of how you finance your firm, only the present value of your future cash
flows matter.
EXAMPLE: an all equity firms considers a project: invest 800$ today, and the payoff
tomorrow can be 1400$ if the economy is strong (50%) or 900$ if the economy is weak
(50%). The risk-free rate is % and the project s risk premium is 10%.
You discount at 15% which is the total risk of the project (10%+5%) 1+ 0,15
Total equity is the total amount of CFs that goes to the shareholders. 1000 is the value of
the company.
Now, suppose we borrow 500$, in addition to selling equity. Note that the CFs of the
project are higher than the debt owed in each state. We also assume that debt is risk free
in the first proposition of M&M, in other words, Rdebt = Rrisk free= 5%.
The payoffs of debt and equity:
The value of equity is 500*. The value only depends on cash flows (expected), the total
value of the firm has not changed and is independent of the capital structure under this
proposition of M&M.
Why a e t the value of e uity 543 and the value of debt 457?
EQUITY:
the 15% is the WACC! And WACC is not the same as CAPM when the firms finances with
debt! The return that will be asked shall be higher because of the additional risk, it wil
will (for instance) 25%:so you will discount at (1+ 0,25).
1
DEBT: . 𝑥 + . 𝑥 =
1.15
Since debt is assumed to be risk free, the discount rate will also be adapted to (1+0,05).
This firm will never default, no default risk because in the beginning we said that the
cash flows are always higher than the debt the firm owed. But there is a financial risk
that the value of the equity could be lower that what is was at the beginning!
M&M Proposition 2:
In a perfect capital market, the WACC of the firm is equal to the risk of the firm s current
and future CFs and is not affected by its choice of capital structure. So, the WACC does
not depend on capital structure.
Rwacc= Ra(risk of assets)=E/(D+E) x Re +D/(D+E) x Rd= Ru (risk of unlevered firm)
E/(E+D)xRe=Ra-D/(D+E)xRd
Re= (E+D)/E x Ra-(E+D)/E x D/(E+D) x Rd
Re= E/E x Ra + D/EE x Ra – D/E x Rd
Re= Ra + D/E x (Ra – Rd)
So, more financing with debt, means a higher risk of equity, investors will ask a higher
return. Ra is the risk without leverage, the second part of the equation stands for the
additional risk due to leverage, or the cost of the firm s financial risk.
If the size of the mortgage is 50%, and we look at the average: where does 20% comes
from? 15%+ (50%/50%)x(15%-10%)
The cost of capital of levered equity is equal to the cost of capital of unlevered equity
plus a premium that is proportional to the market value of debt-equity ratio.
With perfect capital markets the WACC is a constant function of leverage because as D/E
changes, Requity changes to compensate.
For really high leverage, Rdebt will change as well, debt was risk free because in the
example you could always pay it back (CF in bad times was 900 > 500). But for very high
leverage bv. debt and equity CF of is lower than debt interest hasn t
even been taken into account!! so the cash flows aren t big enough to repay the debt
debt is no longer risk free a that point!
EXPLENATION FIGURE:
- WACC is 15%, does it increase, decrease if you finance with more debt? (if you
go more to the right) : No, it stays the same in M&M proposition
- Cost of equity/capital: for Debt = 0, the WACC=Re=Ra!!! However, when we go
to the right and finance with more debt, the financial risk will increase, and
investors will ask for higher returns.
- Cost of debt: first it was 5% (risk free), but at a certain point when we have a
high amount of leverage that passes the CFs, cost of debt will go towards to
WACC, it cannot go higher than the WACC! If we have 100% of debt and the
cost would stay at 5%, this would mean that the WACC would decrease to 5%
as well… BUT according to M&M the WACC remains the level of % so the
cost of debt will increase to 15% when we finance with 100% of debt.
SUMMARIZE:
Business risk depends on which industry you are in, for instance, biology-sector, medical
products, … Where R&D and innovation can take years.
If the risk in CFs is constant, there is less risk. If it isn t and it goes up and down etc.
there is more risk.
Financial risk is not the same as default risk, default risk means you cannot repay your
liabilities.
Now, the government is taking a share of the pie. But we can minimise that slice of the
government by sheilding inome with debt,more debt means more interest payment and
also less taxes that needs to be paid to the government! More debt- and
shareholders,means more value because a larger part is being payed to them.
(if i wouldnt be deductible, D/E proportion would have no impact)
EXPLANATION FIGURE
- stippelijn is toen we te maken hadden met neutral taxes
- Cost of equity: more debt, more financial risk, so will go up and may even go
up slower then before more debt now means more value…
- Cost of debt: in the beginning it will be below the 5% because the interest is
deductible. When there is a lot of debt, it wont go up to 15% this time, 100%
of debt wont mean a cost of debt of 15% because the interest is deductible, so
it will be lower!
- WACC: in this case, the WACC will decrease. (as manager you would finance
entirely with debt, as investor you wouldn t
3. Trade-off theory
- Direct costs (next to interest costs): financial distress cost, bv. If bank sues
you: legal and court costs, also if you do not pay the bank in time, the bank
charges you a penalty, if you go bankrupt, you will have to sell your assets at
very low prices…
- Indirect costs
When debt increases, the share for the government decreases AND you get an increase
in the distress share! So, you need to find an equilibrium or a maximum amount of debt
and equity to maximaze the value of the firm (trade-off)
TRADE OFF:
- advantages of debt (i-deductibillity)
- disadvantages of debt (financial distress)
What does this mean for a:
- company with high financial distress and will probably go bankrupt:assets
would be sold at 10% when there are few buyers
- same company but but has assets that could also be easily sold when there are
many buyers.
For this one, the financial distress costs are much lower and they will be able
to go much further on the D/(D+E) –axes before the cost of debt rises a lot
compared the the first company!
also benefit of agency cost, if you have more debt, managers will try to benefit
themselves less because debt needs to be repayed!! Managers would be incentified to
grow, to built large firms and leverage will reduce wastefull investments,
overinvestments will be avoided! There is no obligation of a fixed return towards
shareholders, but it is obligated to repay debt holders!
eerste puntje: in this case you would only choose the most profitable projects to assure
the repayment of debt. By preserving ownership concentration, you will have fewer
shareholders, fewer shareholders to split the cost with. The more shareholders there
are, the less risk there is per shareholder and you will also care less in this situation.
it is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of debtfinancing with an optimal D-level.
STARTING POINT: managers know more than investors about firm value- and that
investors recognize their disadvantage (asymmetric info)
This seems reasonablle, managers are better informed about the quality of a certain
project.
EXAMPLE: imagine companies O and U, to investors they both seem identical, but O s
managers know that their stock is overpriced, and U s managers know that their stock is
underpriced… they both have an investment project and need to raisemoney, should
they issue equity or debt??
For O, the futur isn t looking so bright stock price will go down
The reason why O and U would issue debt, is asymmetric information.
Both firms don t want to give a signal and they will issue debt, that is why debt will be
preferred over equity and a higher ranking will be given to debt…
they don t see an optimal capital structure, but rather a cumulative outcome of the
past…, no grand plan for optimal structure.
Profits should predict that the more profits you have, the less debt you wil have and the
more you will finance internally trade-off theory: more profits,more debt because
of the interest deductibility benefit. There is more evidence for the pecking order theory.
according to this theory, the market would not totally vanish the overvaluation because
the markets are not semi-stron effecient according to this theory. If this is the case,
managers may be able to time the market and get overpriced equity issue without a big
price drop.
they do not prefer debt or equity, only care about the fact that market makes mistakes
about pricing from time to time…
the capital structure comes from decisions made in the past, if there were very
favourable prices in the past, the firm will have more equity and less debt and vice versa.
Also here there is no such thing as a grand plan, no trade-off between costs and benefits.
when a company grows, its fixed fixed assets will need to grow along.
BUT not every industry needs large investments in fixed assets to grow, for instance
they need more employees.
Growing has an impact on other things as well! Your customer credit will go up: if you
have more sales and give your customers the same sale terms, customer credit goes up.
This also goes for supplier credit when credit terms remains the same of the suppliers.
Q1: your WCR will go up and you will need more and more cash (WCR=cash drain)
In the example, your WCR goes up with 1, 3 or 5 while your profit doesn t increase in the
same amount, but it is much lower. The more you grow, the more cash zou need!! You
need cash in your company (pay back supllier otherwise you go bankrupt).
the production & stock period is a cash outflow, the credit to customer is where you wait
to get paid, and when the customer finanny pays, you have a cash inflow. (you can take a
look at this for every month)
WCR wont be the same for every company:
- the market power of a company influences WCR via the terms you get from
your suppliers (credit from suppliers). For instance, Colruyt has a very strong
position towards its small suppliers, even in times of a crisis, Colruyt is able to
wait longer to pay its suppliers.
- It also depends on the industry:when a customer buys something from
Colruyt, he/she pays before he/she leaves the store. But when you buy a car,
you getmore time…
CASH-IN vs. REVENU: revenu are sales, you may sell today and your sales will go up
BUTonly after a few days you will receive the cash.
CASH-OUT vs. COST: cost is for instance depreciations but this isn t a direct cash-out.
so first the I/S, then you multiply the assets by , . Then D* , and E* , …
the plug= dividends
the projected net income is 12,5$ but the equity is only increase by 7,50$, the difference
is paid out in cash dividends (plug).
the parameters is usually based on past experiences (bv. Growth rate, cost of sales-
margin… . If past experiences aren t available, look at the competitors and use their
ratio s as benchmark.
You start with these parameters, and you base you model on these parameters, so that if
you need to make changes, or you need to adapt something, you adapt it in your
parameters, and because everything is connected, everything will be adapted in the
model.
Any third party should be able to use your model, so it should be simple and clear.
How big is the Belgian economy? GDP= sum of all the added value in BE:between 360
and 380 billion euros.
How is the Venture Capital market in BE? 1 billion euros
How important are the Business Angels in BE? 0,1 billion euros
How important are bank loans? 170 billion euros granted to non-financial
corporations (nfc.) BUT only 120 billion euros taken! So their is a spare room of 50
billion euros= GAP between granted and taken loans.
those 4 baks dominate the sector, 85%-90% of the 170 billion euros.
PRIVATE BANKING: for large private companies because you bring a large amount of
money into the bank. Private banking is banking, investment and other financial
services provided by banks to private individuals who enjoy high levels of income or
invest sizable assets. The term "private" refers to customer service rendered on a more
personal basis than in mass-market retail banking, usually via dedicated bank advisers.
It does not refer to a private bank, which is a non-incorporated banking institution.
CORPORATE BANKING: for SMEs and large firms. The corporate banking segment of
banks typically serves a diverse range of clients, ranging from small to mid-sized local
businesses with a few millions in revenues to large conglomerates with billions in sales
and offices across the country.
How does it work? It collects deposits from households and companies and transform
them into bank loans (long term maturity). It takes from people who have money but do
not need it to the ones that need it but don t have money. This is a simple illustration of a
small bank, this is not applicable for a large bank, this is more complicated, see next…
This is how it is for large banks, not just transform deposits into loans but also invest in
stock markets for higher returns than they get on loans, also in bonds or gold
(=investments in securities).
Also an insurance company bonds of countries government debt! Bv. Greek debt
unfortunately.
Why were they in trouble in the crisis? Investments in bonds and in the banks
themselves, so loans were given to other banks! Bv. American banks
So on the slide, the right part has also a part of deposits that comes from other banks,
but also on the left side, the loans you give as a bank to other banks, not only to
customers.
Only a very small amount of equity, for large and small banks, WHY?
WHY do you need equity? To decrease financial risk where the value of your assets is
lower than the debt you need to repay (o).
WHY not have a large amount of equity? If you have less equity AND you are
perceived as a low risk company (which was the case for banks), the smaller the equity,
the higher your ROE will be! In the previous course, we learned that the more debt you
have, the higher your ROE will be BUT there is a financial risk BUT if the market doesn t
believe (fooled) in this risk higher ROE.
REALITY? There is a risk of (o). This is why banks are regulated and need a certain
amount of equity BASEL (next slides)
laatste vierkantje: now there is a difference, it depends on the Rating! When you have an
AAA-rating, you do not have to have equity set aside.
if your solvency is lower than 30%, you will be most likely unable to obtain a
loan.
Risk hedging poss.: internally… collateral externally… government is giving
guaranty up to 70% for instance of the bank loan and they have a risk of 30%??)
bank lending will depend on the characteristics of the bank especially in the crisis, for
instance: bank with a large capital ratio of 12%, more likely to survive than one with
only 4%, the latter will grant less loans and will probably even need help of the
government.
DISTINCTION:
Private equity investing may be broadly defined as investing in securities through a
negotiated process.
Venture capital can be described as the business of building businesses. VC isn t just
about funding, but also about being actively involved strategy, orientation… compared
to public equity…, VC is about being a key player in the built-up of the company.
In 2013: 55 billion euros raised only in that year (in total around 500 billion), not all of it
was invested. Only 38 billion was invested in private equity (VC and Buy-outs).
Divestments=exits and the funds that followed from that.
Going from 2006 to 2007 we can see a drop, this is where the financial crisis started in
the US, but is was more in 2009 where the crisis had arrived in Europe. In 2009, there
was not only a financial crisis but also an economic crisis.
So the domestic investment are very big BUT there are also quit some cross-border
deals possible, it happens more often. For instance, if you are an investor on your own.
some BE firms were also able to obtain funds from the US, mostly when they had
already obtained funds before and even more likely when there is a cooperation
between the investors from the US and a BE investor(s) who is more closely situated to
the firm and has knowledge. The BE investor will also most likely take a leading position
in the group of investors.
Industry statistics: location of the venture capital is taken into account, how much
money the VC is managing. Mostly the UK with a lot of VC.
Market statistics: location of the portfolio company is taken into account, investment
based on the portfolio company. Here it is more equally spread.
0,3% of GDP
(Market stat)
UK is just above the EU BUT buy-out is very advanced in the UK, that is how you get a
large chunk for the UK for private equity (buy-out= part of PE as is VC)
The older and larger a firm is, the more options it will have… VC provides for a specific
niche! VC are niche players for types of companies that aren t suitable for obtaining
bank loans banks don t have the needed financial structure, some of the banks are
providing separate departments for Private Equity though, for instance KBC private
equity).
Banks are very limited in finding solutions for these previous problems, they do make
use of clauses (clausules) etc but they mostly make use of the collateral. If the company,
after signing the contract and receiving the loan, suddenly starts to take on more risks,
the bank can still just sell the collateral VC goes further in terms of counter
measures, more costly, can carry more costs because of the higher possible returns they
could receive (banks only have the interest).
So, VC target companies who would find it very difficult to get bank loans, in other
words, companies with little collateral, high growth potential, high risk banks don t
want this, VC do and they shift the risks towards the E s , high profibillity potential in
the future…
Also take into account INETELCUAL PROPERTY!! VC have portfolio s of companies and
it can be that a certain intellectual property could be useful for another company in the
portfolio E s don t want that the VC uses their intellectual property for other
companies which is why they will be more likely to go to the banks since banks aren t
interested in building businesses .
Some companies have a low probability of success, but when it does: JACKPOT! This isn t
a possibility for banks, but it is for VCs, they take on more companies and when one
succeeds it can cover the other failures => HOMERUN compensate the other
investments).
This is a typical US-model, also for the EU but in the EU it is more complex (see later).
GPs are the general partners that set up the firm and manage the VC funds. They raise
financing from the LPs (limited partners) who just give the financing, but they do not
wish to be involved to limit their liability (so they are not involved in the management).
GPs will look for interesting companies (about 15-25). These companies will get an
initial investment, and often accompanies by rounds of investments linked to the
progress of the company.
The purpose of all this and what GPs want of course, is to get more back in the end, for
instance: GP 100
GP 200
This isn t an easy job!! For this, you need a good selection, good managing, and good
exiting of the company!
GPs get a fee (%)in the size of the fund on a yearly basis (between 1,5%-3%). The
%depends on the name and reputation of the GP. The carry in this example is 20%.
CARRY= 200 – 100 = 100 20%of this equals a carry of 20 which goes to the GPs, the
rest (80) goes to the LPs (provide financing and are passive).
Government is a very important LP for VC, less/not so much for buyouts! The
government wants to support entrepreneurs new ones …
The GP here is called Whinsead Capital Management. The fund contains $200million,
raised from the LPs. The economic lifetime is 10 years (extensions are possible, for
instance to assure an appropriate exit).
The management fee is %. This isn t very realistic to give the GPs % each year, this
would mean $4 MM each year (10 x 4 = 40 MM) and result in only $160MM left to
invest… More realistic is when the management fee decreases when the fund ages,
otherwise a large part of the fund wouldn t be used to invest.
In this slide, they only mention 1 fund, but the moment you realise a certain amount of
exits (first adding value followed by extracting value), you will start to set up a second
fund only if you were successful. Only when you were able to show your ability to select
firms and in adding value, you will be able to raise an additional fund. In that case, GPs
will receive more money, extra management fee will be placed underneath the green
balk .
1. Funds
These are the ones we have just discussed and are the most typical (the LP-GP
funds). Here it is all about return realisation. This type of fund has a specific age.
The other don t have that.
Here you get that $200MM (in parts, not all at once).
2. Captive or semi captive funds
= institutional investors KBC private equity, ING…
3. Private investment corporations
For instance, google ventures, marc coucke
4. Listed investment firms
For instance GIMV, the GIMV-model.
Here they have a buffer of cash, there will also be cash you don t need after the
exit and the return to the LPs, this has an influence on the B/S. so 1 has another
structure compared to 4.
2,3,4 are also about return realisation but here there are also other motives, for
instance:
- Banks: they will select companies that could come in handy in the future, that
could realise strategic benefits, for access to future business
- Also corporates will invest in technologies that could also come in handy etc.
Slide 35: what are the implications of LP-GP? Sophie????
Sourcing Deals
First, the VC receives the business plan (BP), gives it the 1-minute-look (=looking at the
summary), and the 10-minute-look (goes a bit further..).
Next is the due diligence, getting insight in the intelectual property, the team,
customers…
Deal strucuting: To do this invesmtent, how many shares do we need to ask? At what
price? to answer these question, there will be a need to valuation. The financial
instruments most frequently used are the preferred stock. Setting up the term sheet (=
the basis characteristics of the deal, contractual agreement for the exit).
Once the deas has been accepted, we can move over toward the managment and
monitoring of the deal.this also regards taking seats in the Bod (Boardof directors),
managing in crisis, recruiting and raising further funds.
Last is the exiting deals.
(sourcing deals = filter??)
Nota onder de slide:
Due diligence can take up to - months
Trade sale M&A : Much more important in terms of number of exits than IPO
Financing instrument: Why important? Why not all common stock?
Consider following example:
ENT has invested € k, VC € m; VC owns /
If company is sold for € k
ENT makes profit of / . k– k=€ k
VC makes loss of / . k– m=€ k
VC needs downside protection
PURPOSE:
• Rationalize deal flow on basis of fund characteristics and strategy (2000 BPs to
cover and only few people to do it AND you also want to be actively involved…
you need to remove the ones you are not interested at all!)
• Build a base of knowledge of a new sector
– Refine background
– Build sector judgment
– Accumulate investment judgment
When you are in a meeting with E s, they might say we are the only ones who are
doing this… but by looking at a lot of BPs that you already had received previously,
you have actually built a base of knowledge, you might already seen a PB similar to
one presented to you right now, by reading previous BP and doing research around
them, zou know stuff about the market and industry… this all serves the base of
knowledge)
• Determine SWOT
– Characterize what is fixable; what is not
– Develop a real options thought process
• Identify milestones and related capital needs
if there is no competition, there is a great chance that there isn t a market for it
• Establish or test basis for valuation
• Create framework for term sheet preparation and negotiation
(Term sheet: what are the milestones, what do you expect them to achieve…
• Ideally, create a mutual benefit for investor and entrepreneur
You start with 2000 proposals and you give them the 1-minute look, followed by the 10-
minute test and 1 hour test these are called the pre-qualifiers
This gives you 300 meetings and only 150 of them are actively persued, deals that the VC
would want but the VC needs more information first (due diligence, negotiations,
valuations)
All ending in about 20-50 deals that will be financed.
3 types of E s:
Risk capital providers: those are the ones that look up the email adresses (on the
agentschap ondernemen of ALL the Vcs and they send an email to all of them.
The chance of getting a fund is low for them = overshopped
Than you have the ones that only go to 1 VC, the VC that is the closest to them,
which isn t a good way either.
The third group does is wright, think about which VC would suit them well…
This shows the selection preferences, shows where, how much capacity they have,
they put up a maximum which has to do with the capacity of the VC.
If the company only needs a smallamount, it shoulds go to a VC.
Company basic history: (what are the basic characteristics of the company? What
does the team look like? Capital structure? Also look at the previous seed investors
to see if the quality of the initial investor has got what you need, if not, that company
will be excluded)
• Source of the idea/technology
• Who is the prime mover?
– An entrepreneurial self-starter
– A hired-gun
• Organizational structure
• Capital structure
• History and age of company
• Prior seed investors, if any
– Complexity of seed deal
– Role of the angels
– Corporate VC
• Prior VC participation
– Who, when, what role?
Fund-raising savvy:
• Has the founder-entrepreneur raised capital in previous activity?
– In what setting?
– From what/whom?
– Valuation reasonableness
– Familiarity with common venture capital deal terms
• Experience bootstrapping or with angels
• General reputation in community
– As entrepreneur
• Concept originator, promoter, maverick, launcher, operator?
– As executive
• Entrepreneur in residence at a fund?
• Has the business plan been over-shopped
– Has plan distribution been controlled
– Non-disclosure agreement required?
Phase 2. General Endogenous Qualifiers: The Merits of the Team and the Company
A Very Old Debate Among VCs:
• Some VCs believe company s product and market are key.
» Bet on the horse.
• Others believe is all about management, management, management.
» Bet on the jockey.
HORSE!!!!
• A bad management team does not necessarily kill a good idea, but
• A bad idea is rarely overcome by a good management team.
• Poor management is much more likely to be fixed by new management than a
poor idea is likely to be fixed by a new idea.
• When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business
with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that
remains intact. Warren Buffett
• Be Killed:
We’re so ahead that we don’t have competition.
DCF is the superior method but it will be simplified due to uncertainty, multiples is
another method but used less. The VC-method is the bridge between the previous two.
Conventional VC Method:
• Principle: Base present value on an expected terminal value discounted back
with a high discount (or hurlde) rate.
• Major operand: Instead of using cost of capital as discount rate, VC uses a target
rate of return, i.e., yield needed to justify risk and effort.
Step 1: Look at the possible time of exit (5-7 years after the investment).
Step 2: Think about the key financial figures in a success scenario at the time of exit
(bv. Look at the earnings) which will be generated.
Step 3: Multiply by a multiple based on previous experiences or on the market
multiples…
Step 4: Discount back to today.
Step 5: you become the expected value of the firm (then you can also calculate the
amount of shares you should get given the amount of your investment)
Stages of Investing: Required return (Not dogma!, US based): (results from one
specific VC):
Seed:very early stage, when a VC invest in the seed-stage, they willask a higher return
because many seed-stage firms will be unsuccesfull, this is to compensate this risk ( a
higher return potential).
(results of different Vcs):1996 (old study)
3 220 338
5 371 759
7 627 1,709
This table represent what you think at the time of the investment. This is mostly
followed by failures (a lot of start-ups will fail unfortunately) but the reason of creating
portfolios is that 1 success can compensate the other failures (Homerun).
If shareholders require a return of 50% then they expect the value of the company to be
approx. 7 times higher after 5 years!
If you want to realise these required returns, you have to invest in high growth/ high
potential firms.
(for VC it is not interested to invest in bv. A pizza-restaurant, because there is not a lot of
potential for high growth for instance)
Valuation Example:
A) Assumptions:
• Estimation of exit year—7 years
• Net Income projections in exit year or in new markets, an index of value—$25
MM(success scenario)
• Average P/E of industry comparables—11 (could also have been based on
previous experience)
• Existing capital structure of company—1 MM shares of Common Stock (CS)
• VC s targeted rate of return per year for portfolio company profiled—50%(high
rate, start-up stage)
• VC s investment amount in round 1 -$3.5MM
B) A six-step approach:
STEP 1:Estimate the company s terminal value at a future date this may be the
exit phase for the VC) when the company has achieved positive cash flows and
profitability. Calculate by using a PE multiple times the exit year s net income.
Example: $25mm x 11PE
STEP 2: Calculate discounted Terminal Value. Calculate the company s
discounted terminal value(Present Value (PV) of the future income streams over
the holding period)
Example: DTV = $25mm x 11PE
(1 + 50%) ^7
=$16.1mm
= (1,000,000/0.7826)- 1,000,000
= 1,277,778 – 1,000,000
= 277,778
STEP 4B: Allowing for an additional round.
Calculate the retention ratio ( the % retained after one subsequent
Common stock financing round of 20% and incentive options for 25% of
CS have been awarded)
retention ratio= (1/ (1.2)/1.25)=66% (divide RFP by this %)
Calculate the Required Current Percent Ownership on Day 1
This % accounts for how much of the equity is retained, after
subsequent rounds and options have been awarded.
The Required Current Percent Ownership
=21.74% divided by the retention ratio (66%)
=32.94%
Step 4C: Shares needed allowing for further dilution.
Original shares= 1,000,000
Revised RFP = 32.94%
New Shares with dilution
=(1,000,000/(1.00-.3294))- 1,000,000
= (1,000,000/0.6706) – 1,000,000
= 1,491,202 – 1,000,000
= 491,202 new shares to be issued
Step 5A: Share price with no future dilution. (no subsequent rounds)
Price per New Share with no dilution:
Total amount to be invested = $3,500,000
Number of new shares with no dilution = 277,778
$3,500,000/277,778= $12.60 per new share of CS
Step 5B: Share price with full dilution. (with subsequent rounds)
Price per share with dilution:
Total amount to be invested = $3,500,000
Number of new shares with dilution = 491,202
Price per share = $3.5mm/491,202
= $7.13
STEP 6A: Pre-money value no dilution.
PRE-MONEY VALUE: based in the valuation we have made, before the
investment. Pre-money = post-money - investment
POST-MONEY VALUE: after investments with the new shares (more shares
outstanding than for the pre-money value).
Founder C
33%
$1,000
24
25
Here you went from 0.001 to 0.01 dollars per share. Hiring a CEO is not necessary but
when you do, you need to establish an option plan.
How dilution works
• First round of financing: expect 25-50% dilution
• Second round: perhaps 30-40% dilution
• Third round: perhaps 20-25% dilution
• One immutable piece of the pie: employee stock
The pre-money value here is 5000.000*2 (5000.000 comes from the previous slide, the
number of shares before investment, the 2 is the price/share at time of the investment).
Founder A went from 10.000 to 2000.000 dollars value even though his slice of the pie
decreases!!!
5% n
Founder B 1,000,000 5% $20,000,000
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Slices decreases but the value increases! Sometimes founders are afraid of losing control
and having nothing to say as their slices decreases…
4. Dividends:
Dividends negotiated as a kicker
a. Levied on original purchase price of shares
b. Typically proposed at T-Bill rates
c. Cumulative, not compounded (most frequently like this)
Cumulative: not paid in one year, shift to the next year or all at once at the time of
exit for instance. (Bv. No dividends paid for the 5 years? At exit all years will be paid).
Compound: paying/getting dividends on dividends.
So cumulative and compound is very good for the investors, interesting for VCs (they
get dividends for sure, and even dividends on dividends!),but most of the time it is
not compound.
5. Liquidation Preference:
a. A tool that enables favourable treatment for preferred shareholders. It is
invoked upon sale or merger; liquidation & winding up
EXAMPLE:
VC: 20% in firm Y (investment: 2m)
$1 share, 1X liquidation preference, no preferred dividends
Others: 8m common shares
What if firm gets sold for m vs. m? VC gets…
In this case of an unsuccessful exit, the VCs would be having a loss in case of CS
(O,6< 2M) and NPP would be better than CS. The PP would have the best results
for the VC in this case and would still be acceptable for the E s if we assume that
the E s invested . .
In the case of the successful exit, the VC won t get only M in the NPP case, but M
because he will change his preferred shares into CS when things are going well!!
This shows how you can SHIFT RISKS when things are going bad en when things
are going good, how they both and benefit from the deal.
EXAMPLE:
A preferred first round of VCs. 0,50 per share: value has been destroyed! The pre-
money value is 3M (you attract new financing and value goes down because of thelower
price per share).
a)• Full-Ratchet i.e., simple
simpleand
andcomplete
completerevision
revision to conversion
’
price
“Full-Ratchet” (i.e., to conversion price)
Revised conversion price: $.50/share
Conversion ratio: $1.00/$.50 = 2
Thus:
2,000,000 "A" Preferred convert to 4,000,000 Common
“N ”
’
(only Preferred Stock included)
Conversion price x ( # of Pre Money Preferred shares + # of new shares that the new
investor would have received for the new money @ the old price/share) ÷ (# of Pre Money
Preferred shares + # of new shares that the new investor will receive @ the new price/share)
d) No price-based protection
– No protection: A declines to %
The employee is a key employee and get 100.000 shares. If you leave after 6 months, you
wont get what you could have gotten if you have staid and created value…
One year later, . shares will go to the employee, afterword s this will be calculated
monthly (no longer per year) and each month after Y1 the employee will get 2083
shares (75.000/36 months). And when the employee creates value, this is positive for
him as well because your shares will be worth more!
For founders, the situation is different, you would get the 25.000 immediately,
guaranteed because of the work you already have done before!
9. Play or Pay:
Compels participation by existing investors in future rounds
Carrot and stick approach to the next round
Use of this provision is trending up in the current climate;
Especially where co-investors include lesser-known funds
If an investor cannot not provide a follow-up on finance, for instance there are 4
investors and 1 cannot follow, the other 3 will have to search for another + put more
money in that company which could damage their portfolio! Play (invest) or Pay (be
punished): targeted towards investors that are already in the company and they will pay
if they cannot play, they will have to convert their preference shares into CS and they
will no longer have preferences while the remaining investors will enjoy better
preferences than you did at the original state.
In this old study, it seems that most VCs spends around 60% of their time on post-
investment activities.
Study of Mirjam Knockaert. How frequently and important are these different activities?
The daily management (operational tasks) are rarely done. VCs activities are usually
more on a strategic level (hiring new CEOs and CFOs, less about hiring employees, using
their network, finding additional finance…
a. Exit
You have done the investment, after 3- years of involvement you hope to cash once
you exit the company.
These are diverse exit routes companies can take once they decided the do divestments.
Trade sales are where the firm sells to another firm. Sale to the management doesn t
occur often. IPO and quoted equity together is also rather rare.
You do not want to sell a bad firm to your colleagues, this would damage your
reputation and you wont be able to do business with them anymore with those investors
in the future.
6. Performance
What happens with the companies within these portfolios? Who can obtain VC and
what happens when they do?
This study compares VC-backed firms with non-VC-backed firms who do have
similar characteristics.
US-study.
Time zero = time of matching.
The growth in the number of employees is much higher and increases faster for VC-
backed firms. This is important looking from the perspective of the government since
VC is important to create jobs.
Also sales are higher for VC-backed firms. Overall, VC-backed firms clearly grow
faster!
60000
Average Sales (thousand)
50000
40000
30000
US firms
20000 EU firms
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years after VC investment
140
120
100
80 US firms
60 EU firms
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years after VC investment
Also the sales of VC-backed firms in the US are higher en grow faster.
The previous slide was based on average numbers, but of course there are funds
that are very successful! When a GP generates a second fund, after the first one
was very successful, there will be a lot of competition between the LP s and the
GP will be able to negotiate better fees etc. (omgekeerd with unsuccessful funds)
Not so rosy as an asset class ON AVERAGE, but the top is able to raise sizable
returns!
Origin of Buy-outs: (where do BO come from, what would be the typical case of where
they emerge from?)
• Succession within family businesses
– Current managers wanting to give it through to family
• Divestment of a division
– A bigger corporation wants to get rid of a department, division and the
new management team sees value that the corporation can t see anymore
• Public-to-private transactions
– Why go from public to private? If you are a smaller firm on the market,
there will be a lack of liquidity and you wil have a lot of costs due to
providing information also about strategy or why a certain product launch
wasn t successful etc.
– through a MBO and sometimes it goes back public again
• The withdrawal of a different financial investor Secondary = SBO
Mostly a very simple structure, what follows is already even a more complex structure:
Most of the time, it is a simple structure: a management team teamed up with banks (not
even a PE-provider but it is also a BO)
Bigger companies will need more money to buy and therefore will use PE-providers.
Also the VENDORS might provide financing to still benefit if things go well.
BANKS: mostly syndicate of banks and there friends lawyers, accounts,…
INVESTORS (PE): also not only PE-players, but also there team of advisors…
MANAGERS: this is also the case for the management team, they also bring their
people into the game
For a BO to take a place, a NEW entity, a new company will be established (with banks
giving debt to this new entity) and then the newco buys the target company.
Sometimes there is a newco1 (only equity) and a newco2 (equity & debt) and the latter
one buys the target company. Both equity and debt are important for the buyout!
REMEMBER…
SENIOR DEBT: Debt that takes priority over other unsecured or otherwise more
"junior" debt owed by the issuer. Senior debt has greater seniority in the issuer's capital
structure than subordinated debt. Debt can have different maturities which are in turn
connected with different returns. In the event the issuer goes bankrupt, senior debt
theoretically must be repaid before other creditors receive any payment. Protected with
collateral, lower risk.
MEZZANINE FINANCE: subordinated debt (between equity and debt)
REASONS TO MEZZANINE
The use of mezzanine debt provides benefits to both lenders and the borrowing
company. The company taking out the debt gets to borrow at a lower rate than it would
pay on straight subordinated debt. A mezzanine type loan may be the only way that a
company can get a subordinated loan. The lender gets the benefit of participating in the
better results forecast by the additional borrowing. If the borrower is successful in
putting the newly borrowed mezzanine financing to work, the return to the lender will
be much higher than just providing a subordinated loan.
ORDINARY SHARES: this is the other extreme, that has a lot of risk and in turn
requires a higher return
BO uses all of these sources in a package to improve the financial structure and
increase return!
TERMS:
Structuring a buy-out:
1. Determine how much finance is needed
- What is the target co worth it? (valuation plays a critical roll)
- What are the additional costs?
2. Ascertain how much of that finance can be taken as debt
- How much can you get from the banks? (cheapest source of
financing)
Each of the parties has different requirements to meet, each party has
different goals and ambitions (when a VC invest X, they will look how much
they can get back at exit)
Example: MDIS case:
• In March 1993 there was a management buy-out of MDIS, a computer business
owned by McDonnell Douglas
• The division was bought out for £ 125M
Value = 125 million pounds (normally you need to do the valuation yourselves)
Debt = 60 (you do not want to raise too much debt, you need to be able to repay)
Balance = 64 million
• How much of the ordinary shares (ownership%) would you provide to the
management team?
You would expect 2% (1/65)
BUT: this is not interesting for the management team to work there ass of but
to only get 2%... they do more efforts, they make more costs
Solution: DIFFERENTIAL PRICING: they will get shares at lower prices:
o Determining the equity split: Give management proportionately more
of the equity than their investment alone warrants
o For instance, management can buy ordinary shares at £1 each, but PE
institutions pay £10 per share – Management get13,5 % of the equity
o Man.team get 1000.000 shares (1 pound) and VC: 64000.000 (10)
o Any problems?
If someone wants to boy the company at 5 pounds/share, this would
be great for the man.team but very bad for the VC. This could create
conflict between the two
in reality: a combination of things
1 year later after the initial investment, a BO takes place at 250 million pounds.
First repay debt (15M has already been paid, so 45M left to repay).
After debt is repayed, the preferences shares are next, followed by the ordinary shares.
Those will be split by using the 15% and 85%.
ENTRY RATIO:
- 75,2= 64/0,85= implied value of the company
- 6,7=1/0,15=implied company of the company
11,2. In reality this can take a number up to 40! It tells us that the
shares are expensive for the BO-investors compared to the man.team.
The purpose is to increase this ratio from the perspective of the BO-
investors.
5. The process by which the transaction takes place, monitoring & value adding
and exit
When we compare this proces with the one of the VC, there are 2 main differences in the
following 2 steps.
in STEP 1: Beauty contest: intermediaries organise this contest, they contact BO-
investors with a business plan made by the man.teams. The intermediaries choose the
most pretty one. This is different from the process with VC, because with a BO, the
business is already there and you do not need to build the company from scratch VC s
do). (DCF techniques used for BO!)
in STEP 4: the term sheet negotiation includes very different contract clauses (not
rounds in this case, but only 1 specific deal which needs to be structured)
2) Time
- Increase the growth expectations (going from a stable situation to (again) an
increase via for instance establishing new markets)
- Reduce the risk
Ethical issues:
Academic research ON AVERAGE (there are cases with good or bad news too)
• Financial performance generally improves after the buy-out (e.g., Cressy,
Munari and Malipiero, 2007; Guo, Hotchkiss and Song, 2011).
• 70% of buy-outs remain in the possession of the PE investors for five years or
longer (Strömberg). So those fast-buck artists are very exceptional.
• For employment the answer is more complex (e.g., Davis, Haltiwanger, Jarmin,
Lerner and Miranda, 2011; Lutz and Achleitner, 2009), i.e. PE investors are
neither angels nor demons
some studies say an increase, others say a decrease
a combination of studies: the first 3 years the employment decreases
(restructuring and some activities are less relevant) BUT from Y4 and Y5
the employment increases and they get higher wages, mostly because of
they hire of more skilled people.
so not necessarily a bad thing for employment, there is a shift between
the types of employment.