Comparison of risk analysis Microsoft Excel add-ins

The following is a comparison of various add-in packages available to do Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling and risk analysis. Add-ins covered are for Microsoft Excel on Windows. Mac
software and tools for other platforms, such as R or Matlab are not included.

Decision-making software is reviewed separately.

General information
Name Company name Office location(s) Product first released Last stable version Software license License options System Requirements Spreadsheet used

Australia, Japan, UK, Single user, network Excel 32-bit (Excel

@RISK Industrial[1] Palisade Corporation 1987 7.5 Proprietary Windows XP+
USA license 2007+), Excel 64-bit

Australia, Japan, UK, Single user, network Excel 32-bit (Excel

@RISK Professional[1] Palisade Corporation 1987 7.5 Proprietary Windows XP+
USA license 2007+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Argo[2] Booz Allen Hamilton USA 2012 4.1 Freeware N/A Windows XP+
2007+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Crystal Ball[3] Oracle Corporation USA 1987 11.1.4.4 Proprietary Single user Windows 2003+
2003+), Excel 64-bit

Crystal Ball + Decision Excel 32-bit (Excel

Oracle Corporation USA 1987 11.1.4.4 Proprietary Single user Windows 2003+
Optimizer[3] 2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

DiscoverSim + SigmaXL[4] SigmaXL Inc. Canada 2012 2.1 Proprietary Single user Windows Vista+
2010+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Ersatz[5] Epigear Australia 2009 1.3 Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

MC FLO[6] MC FLOsim Switzerland 2016 Sofía I. Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
2010+), Excel 64-bit

Single user, network Excel 32-bit (Excel

ModelRisk Complete[7] Vose Software Belgium, USA 2008 6.1 Proprietary Windows XP+
license 2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

ModelRisk Basic[7] Vose Software Belgium, USA 2008 6.1 Freeware Single user Windows XP+
2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Monte Carnival[8] Monte Carnival USA 2018 1.0 Proprietary Single User Windows 95+
1997+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Quantum XL[9] Sigmazone USA 2010 3.50.04 Proprietary Single user Windows XP+
2000+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Risk Analyzer Add-ins.com USA 2003 11.02 Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
97+), Excel 64-bit

Wehrspohn GmbH & Free, single user, Excel 32-bit (Excel

Risk Kit Suite[10] Germany 2007 6.0 Proprietary Windows 2000+
Co. KG network license 2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Single user, network
Risk Solver Pro[11] Frontline Systems USA 2007 15.0 Proprietary Windows XP+ 2003+), Excel 64-bit,
license
Excel Online

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Risk Solver Pro + Single user, network
Frontline Systems USA 2007 15.0 Proprietary Windows XP+ 2003+), Excel 64-bit,
Premium Solver Pro[11] license
Excel Online

Excel 32-bit (Excel

RiskAmp Personal[12] Structured Data LLC USA 2005 11.5 Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
2003+), Excel 64-bit

Excel 32-bit (Excel

RiskAmp Professional[12] Structured Data LLC USA 2005 11.5 Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
2003+), Excel 64-bit

Safe Quantitative Excel 32-bit (Excel

SAFE TOOLBOXES[13] USA 2016 1.0 Proprietary Single user Windows 2000+
Technologies 2003+), Excel 64-bit

Roger Myerson,
Simtools xla[14] USA ? 3.31a Freeware N/A Windows 95+ Excel 32-bit (Excel 5+)
University of Chicago

Excel 32-bit (Excel

Similar[15] Luciano Machain Argentina ? 2.5 Freeware N/A Windows XP+
2003+)

Simulation Master Vortarus Technologies Excel 32-bit (Excel

USA 2017 18.12.03 Proprietary Single user Windows XP+
Premium[16] LLC 2007+), Excel 64-bit

Simulation Master Vortarus Technologies Excel 32-bit (Excel

USA 2017 18.09.01 Proprietary Single user Windows XP+
Standard[16] LLC 2007+), Excel 64-bit

Tukhi[17] KALX, LLC USA ? 0.2.11.5 Freeware N/A Windows 95+ Excel 32-bit (Excel 5+)

Rutgers University and

Excel 32-bit (Excel
YASAI[18] and YASAIw[19] Washington State USA 2001 2.4, 2.0w29 Freeware, Open source N/A Windows 95+
97+), Excel 64-bit
Department of Ecology

Technical specification I
 Database VBA calls to C++ calls to
Name Distribution fitting Correlation fitting[20] Time series fitting Decision trees Optimizer included Six sigma supported
connectivity functions[21] functions[22]

@RISK Industrial Yes Yes Yes PrecisionTree option Yes No Yes Yes Yes

@RISK Professional Yes Yes No PrecisionTree option No No Yes Yes Yes

Argo No Yes No No Yes No No No No

Crystal Ball Yes No Yes No No No Yes No Yes

Crystal Ball + Decision

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
Optimizer

Crystal Ball EPM +

Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes
Decision Optimizer

DiscoverSim + SigmaXL Yes Yes No No Yes No No No Yes

Ersatz No No No No Yes No No No No

MC FLO Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No

ModelRisk Complete Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

ModelRisk Basic Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes No

Monte Carnival No No No No No No No No No

Quantum XL Yes No No No Yes No No No Yes

Risk Analyzer No No No No No No No No No

Risk Kit Suite Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes[23] No

Risk Solver Pro Yes No XLMiner option Yes No XLMiner option Yes Yes Yes

Risk Solver Pro +

Yes No XLMiner option Yes Yes XLMiner option Yes Yes Yes
Premium Solver Pro

RiskAmp Personal No No No No No No No No No

RiskAmp Professional No No No No No No No No No

SAFE TOOLBOXES Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes

Simtools xla No No No Functions / macros No No Yes No No

Similar Yes No No No Yes No Yes Yes No

Simulation Master
Yes Yes Yes DTace option Yes No Yes No No
Premium

Simulation Master
No No No DTace option No No No No No
Standard

YASAI and YASAIw No No No No No No Yes No No

Technical specification II
Probability calculation Extreme value Expert elicitation ODE and numerical
Name Converters for UDF error analysis[25] Data previsualizer Assumption library
functions[24] modeling[26] tools[27] integration

@RISK Industrial Crystal Ball Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes

@RISK Professional Crystal Ball Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes

Argo No Yes No No No Yes No No

Crystal Ball No Yes No No No Yes No No

Crystal Ball + Decision

No Yes No No No Yes No No
Optimizer

DiscoverSim + SigmaXL No Yes No No No Yes No No

Ersatz No No No No No No No No

MC FLO No Yes Yes No Yes Yes No No

ModelRisk Complete Crystal Ball, @RISK Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

ModelRisk Basic Crystal Ball, @RISK No Yes No No No No No

Monte Carnival No No No No No No No No

Quantum XL No No No No No No No No

Risk Analyzer No No No No No No No No

Risk Kit Suite No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No

Risk Solver Pro No No No No No No No No

Risk Solver Pro +

No No No No No No No No
Premium Solver Pro

RiskAmp Personal No No No No No No No No

RiskAmp Professional No No No No No No No No

SAFE TOOLBOXES No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Simtools xla No No No No No No No No

Similar No No No No No No No No

Simulation Master
No No Yes No No No No No
Premium

Simulation Master
No No Yes No No No No No
Standard

YASAI and YASAIw No No No No No No No No

Simulation Controls
 Stop run when
Maximum Lock / unlock Multiple Run macros Apply specific
Control of seed Random number output Precision Spreadsheet Sampling
Name numbers of random simulation before/after sample in
values generator generates control[34] interpreter[35] method[36]
draws[28] variables[29] runs[30] simulation[31] model[33]
error[32]

@RISK Industrial Yes Unlimited Several Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No MC, LHS

@RISK Professional Yes Unlimited Several Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No MC, LHS

Mersenne
Argo Yes 20000 Yes No No No Yes No Yes MC, LHS
Twister

Crystal Ball Yes Unlimited MCG[37] Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes MC, LHS

Crystal Ball + Decision

Yes Unlimited MCG[37] Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes MC, LHS
Optimizer

Marsaglia KISS
DiscoverSim + SigmaXL Yes 1e7 No No No No No No Yes MC, LHS
+ Monster

Ersatz No Unlimited 7 RNGs Yes Yes Yes No No No No MC

Unlimited /
Mersenne
MC FLO Yes Constrained by Yes No No Yes Yes No No MC
Twister
Excel

Mersenne
ModelRisk Complete Yes Unlimited Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No MC
Twister

Mersenne
ModelRisk Basic Yes Unlimited Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No MC
Twister

Monte Carnival No Unlimited Several Yes Yes No Yes No No No

Mersenne
Quantum XL No 10000 No No No No No Yes Yes MC
Twister

Constrained by
Risk Analyzer No ? No No No No No No No MC
Excel

Mersenne
Risk Kit Suite Yes Unlimited No Yes Yes Yes No No No MC
Twister

Risk Solver Pro Yes Unlimited Several Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes MC, LHS, Sobol

Risk Solver Pro +

Yes Unlimited Several Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes MC, LHS, Sobol
Premium Solver Pro

Constrained by Mersenne
RiskAmp Personal Yes Yes No No No No No No MC, LHS
Excel Twister

Constrained by Mersenne
RiskAmp Professional Yes Yes No No No No No No MC, LHS
Excel Twister

Mersenne
MC, Antithetic,
SAFE TOOLBOXES Yes Unlimited Twister, RanLux Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No
Fauré,Halton
and GFSRG

Constrained by
Simtools xla No Excel's RAND No No No No No No No MC
Excel

Constrained by
Similar No ? Yes No No No No No No MC
Excel

Simulation Master Constrained by MCG[37], Excel's

Yes Yes Yes No No No No No MC
Premium Excel RAND

Simulation Master Constrained by MCG[37], Excel's

Yes Yes No No No No No No MC
Standard Excel RAND

Constrained by L'Ecuyer's
YASAI and YASAIw Yes No Yes Yes No No No No MC
Excel MRG32k3a[38]

Reporting results
 Includes Report Save and
Editing of Time series Simulation Results
Name reporting export retrieve Histogram Cumulative Spider[41] Tornado Scatter Pareto Box Statistics
graphs[40] plot data filtering[42]
tool formats[39] results

Excel,
@RISK Industrial Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
bitmap

Excel,
@RISK Professional Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
bitmap

Excel,
Argo Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No
bitmap

Crystal Ball Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Crystal Ball + Decision

Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Optimizer

DiscoverSim + SigmaXL Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Ersatz No Excel Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes No No Yes No No

MC FLO Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes N/A Yes Yes Yes N/A Yes Yes Yes

PDF,
PowerPoint,
Word, Excel,
ModelRisk Complete Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
ModelRisk
ResultsVie
wer, bitmap

PDF,
PowerPoint,
Word, Excel,
ModelRisk Basic Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
ModelRisk
ResultsVie
wer, bitmap

Monte Carnival Yes Excel Yes Yes No No No No No No No No Yes Yes

Quantum XL No N/A Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Risk Analyzer No N/A Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Risk Kit Suite Yes Excel No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Risk Solver Pro Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes

Risk Solver Pro +

Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Premium Solver Pro

RiskAmp Personal No Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

RiskAmp Professional No Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Not
SAFE TOOLBOXES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes
required.

Simtools xla No Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Similar No Excel N/A N/A Yes Yes N/A Yes Yes N/A N/A N/A Yes Yes N/A

Simulation Master
Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No
Premium

Simulation Master
Yes Excel Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No
Standard

YASAI and YASAIw No Excel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Yes N/A

Help file, support and training

 UDFs linked to help Interfaces linked to Technical support Language
Name Help file in PDF Help file online Online videos Online training Onsite training
file[43] help file[44] available versions[45]

ZH, EN, FR, DE, JA,

@RISK Industrial Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
PT, ES

ZH, EN, FR, DE, JA,

@RISK Professional Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
PT, ES

Argo No No Yes Yes Yes EN No No Yes

EN, JA, ES, DE, FR,

Crystal Ball No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Via Partners
PT

Crystal Ball + Decision EN, JA, ES, DE, FR,

No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Via Partners
Optimizer PT

DiscoverSim + SigmaXL N/A Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes No Yes

Ersatz No No Yes Yes Yes EN No No No

MC FLO No No Yes No Yes DE, EN, ES Yes No No

ModelRisk Complete Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes Yes Yes

ModelRisk Basic Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes Yes Yes

Monte Carnival Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes No No

Quantum XL N/A Yes No No Yes EN No No Yes

Risk Analyzer N/A N/A No No Yes EN No ? ?

Risk Kit Suite Yes Yes No No Yes EN, FR, DE Yes No Yes

Risk Solver Pro Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes Yes Yes

Risk Solver Pro +

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes Yes Yes
Premium Solver Pro

RiskAmp Personal No No Yes Yes Yes EN No No No

RiskAmp Professional No No Yes Yes Yes EN No No No

SAFE TOOLBOXES No No No Yes Yes EN Yes No No

Simtools xla No No No No No EN No No No

Similar No No Yes No Yes EN, ES No No No

Simulation Master
No Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes No No
Premium

Simulation Master
No Yes Yes Yes Yes EN Yes No No
Standard

YASAI and YASAIw No No No No No EN No No No

See also
Spreadsheet
Probability
Add-in

Footnotes and references

1. @RISK manual version 7.0, Palisade Corporation
http://www.palisade.com
2. Booz Allen Hamilton, Argo https://boozallen.github.io/argo/
3. Crystal Ball manual: Oracle® Crystal Ball
http://www.oracle.com/us/products/applications/crystalball/in
dex.html , Fusion addition Release 11.1.1.3 Statistical Guide
4. DiscoverSim Workbook: SigmaXL® DiscoverSim
http://www.sigmaxl.com/DiscoverSim_Features.shtml
5. Ersatz website:
http://www.epigear.com/index_files/ersatz.html
6. MC FLO online resources: https://www.mcflosim.ch/en/
7. ModelRisk online help file:
http://www.vosesoftware.com/vosesoftware/ModelRiskHelp/
8. "Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In for Microsoft Excel - Monte
Carnival" . montecarnival.com. Retrieved 2018-01-16.
9. Help file downloadable with software at
http://www.sigmazone.com/
10. The Risk Kit Suite is available as portable (no admin-rights
required) or installer version. It consists of Risk Kit for Monte-
Carlo simulations, Risk Kit R for advanced statistical analyses,
and Risk Kit Data for an online data feed of financial data and
social statistics from the European Central Bank ECB, the World
Bank, the Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED, Eurostat and
Yahoo!Finance. Risk Kit Suite on corporate website:
http://www.wehrspohn.info/Wehrspohn-GmbH-Co-
KG.656.0.html?&L=1
11. Risk Solver online user guide:
http://www.solver.com/suppxlsguide.htm
12. RiskAmp online user guide:
http://www.riskamp.com/library/howto.php
13. SAFE TOOLBOXES website: http://www.safetoolboxes.com
14. http://home.uchicago.edu/rmyerson/addins.htm#simt 27. Graphical interfaces to facilitate determining distribution of
15. Help file downloadable with software at uncertainty of some model parameter based on expert opinion.
http://www.simularsoft.com.ar/ 28. Some add-ins do not have a custom results viewer and
16. "Simulation Master - Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In for export the data directly into the spreadsheet for analysis using
Excel" . Vortarus Technologies LLC. Retrieved 2018-01-28. the spreadsheet's native charting and statistical tools. The
number of draws is then restricted by the ability of the
17. http://tukhi.com/
spreadsheet to handle the size of the generated data.
18. http://www.yasai.rutgers.edu/
29. The ability to replace a random variable with a fixed value.
19. http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/models.html
30. Some add-ins allow the user to automatically run a model
20. Excel has tools for calculating correlation statistics for a
multiple times replacing decision variables with different values
data set. This refers to the software's ability to fit correlation
for each simulation run
structures to a data set and, where more than one correlation
31. Some add-ins allow the user to run a VBA macro before a
structure is available, to compare the levels of fit.
simulation (e.g. to import data from an external source), after a
21. Some add-ins provide VBA versions of their UDFs, which
simulation (e.g. to export the results to a database) or before or
allow the user to build their own stochastic UDFs in VBA. Some
after a random draw of the model (e.g. to perform an
add-ins also provide VBA functions that control a simulation.
optimization).
This allows the user to create VBA macros that will
32. Stopping a simulation run when an output variable
automatically run simulations and generate results.
generates an error is a useful feature for debugging a model
22. Some add-ins allow calls to C++ routines. These allow the
33. After a simulation run the user is able to insert a specific
user to create a stand-alone DLL that represents a part of the
generated result back into the spreadsheet. This is useful, for
model which needs to be as fast as possible by making use of
example, if one wants to investigate the generated scenario that
the faster performance of the original code (usually C++)
created the greatest profit or loss.
23. Integrable as .NET-assembly
34. The ability to specify a required level of precision for output
24. Provides the facility to calculate probability mass (or
results, usually the accuracy with which the mean or a
density), cumulative probability, moments, etc. of a distribution
percentile of the output has been determined. Precision control
directly in the spreadsheet.
will stop a simulation run when the required accuracy is
25. Standard error messages like #VALUE! when an input
achieved
parameter is invalid is replaced by a message describing the
35. Some add-ins will create a compiled version of the
reason of the error.
spreadsheet model before simulation. This has the benefit of a
26. Tools to evaluate the distribution of the minimum or
far faster simulation speed, but will not work with many types of
maximum sample from a set of IIDs
models e.g. models that include VBA calls or functions like
OFFSET and VLOOKUP.
36. Only Monte Carlo sampling is compatible with copula
correlation structures. Using Latin Hypercube or Sobol sampling
removes the possibility of using other correlation structures like
Archimedean copulas.
37. Multiplicative Congruential Generator
38. L'Ecuyer et al. 2002. An object-oriented random-number
package with many long streams and substreams. Operations
Research 50(6)1073-1075.
http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~lecuyer/myftp/papers/streams0
0.pdf
39. Exporting file formats to share graphical and statistical
results.
40. Ability to change colour schemes, fonts, add markers and
legends, etc.
41. See, for example: https://www.google.ca/search?
q=spider+sensitivity+analysis&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&s
a=X&ved=0ahUKEwjazfDmvOvJAhVJmR4KHTYJBO4QsAQIIA&b
iw=1920&bih=906
42. The ability to select a subset of the simulation results (e.g.
scenarios that result in a loss) thereby allowing the user to
investigate scenarios of greatest interest.
43. In Excel the Insert Function dialog box includes a 'Help on
this function'-hyperlink. Some add-ins use this feature to provide
a direct link to the applicable help file topic.
44. Some add-ins with visual interfaces and dialog boxes
include a help icon that directly links to the applicable help file
topic for that interface
45. ZH = Chinese, EN = English, FR = French, DE = German, JA =
Japanese, PT = Portuguese, ES= Spanish

Further reading
Albright, S. (2011), Data Analysis and Decision Making, 4th Edition, USA: Cengage Learning, ISBN 978-0-538-47612-6
Charnes, J. (2012), Financial Modeling with Oracle Crystal Ball and Excel (2nd edition), USA: Wiley, ISBN 978-0-471-77972-8
Day, A. (2003), Mastering Risk Modeling, Great Britain: Prentice Hall, ISBN 0-273-65978-2
Evans, J.; Olson, D. (1998), Introduction To Simulation And Risk Analysis, United States of America: Prentice Hall, ISBN 0-13-621608-0
Iman, R. L. and Conover, W. J., (1982). 'A Distribution-Free Approach to Inducing Rank Order Correlation Among Input Variables', Commun Statist-Simula Computa 11(3) 311-334
Lehman, D.; Groenendaal, H.; Nolder, G. (2010), Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management, United States of America: CRC Press, ISBN 978-1-4398-5552-2
Machain, L. (2011), Simuación de Modelos Financieros , ISBN 978-987-33-0705-8
Ragsdale, C. (2008), Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction to Management Science (5th edition), Great Britain: Thomson South-Western, ISBN 0-324-65664-5
Vose, D. (2008), Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (3rd edition), Great Britain: Wiley, ISBN 978-0-470-51284-5

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