Rodel, Ellora A.

BSCpE V-GE

ST. ANDREW COLLEGE

FACTS:

St. Andrew College is a small liberal arts college located near Lucena City.

It was founded in 1925 and has a strong reputation for a solid liberal arts

curriculum. Nearly 80 percent of its graduates go on to attain graduate degrees.

prelaw and premed are among its strongest programs. Its enrolment has been

stable at about two thousand students for the past few years.

An enrolment management task force in the admissions department has

determined that many of these” lost applicants” have enrolled at nearby state

universities to major its professional areas such as business and engineering.

In addition, tuition at state-supported schools are free or less than half that at

St. Andrew.

The President and the board of regents of St. Andrew know that they need

to modify some of their goals and objectives to meet the challenges posed by

(1) the changing demographics that are reducing the number of college-age

students that St. Andrew has traditionally attracted, (2) the reduced state

funding that has made St. Andrew less affordable to a wider range of potential

applicants, and (3) greater interest by students in a career-oriented curriculum.

In addition, college resources must be in place to handle at least 30 percent

professional majors and 70 percent liberal arts major. This major statement

was based in continuing a full-time equivalency of 2,500 graduates after ten

years.
PROBLEM:

Recently, the number of freshman applications has been declining, and

there are fears that academic standards may have to be lowered if this trend

continues.

ANALYSIS:

1. What barriers to planning might hinder progress toward this ten-year

goal?

The following are the factors that might hinder progress toward this

ten-year goal: (1) the potential applicants might enroll at nearby state

universities to major its professional areas such as business and engineering.

In addition, tuition at state supported schools are free or less than half that at

St. Andrew. (2) he changing demographics that are reducing the number of

college-age students that St. Andrew has traditionally attracted, (3) the

reduced state funding that has made St. Andrew less affordable to a wider

range of potential applicants, and (4) greater interest by students in a

career-oriented curriculum.

SUGGESTIONS:

2. What resources reallocation need to take place to accomplish this goal?

 St. Andrew College should spend more money per student in the

expenditure categories of instruction, academic support, student services,

institutional support, and institutional grants (scholarships) than their peers

in the last few years and from other universities.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3. What types of contingency plans would you recommend? What factors

should be monitored and used to indicate the proper times (action points) to

implement the contingency plans?

ST. Andrew College should lower its tuition fee for it to be affordable

like the other universities that their lost applicants chose. The factors that

should be monitored are the top competitor schools chosen, the in-state vs.

out-of-state schools, and the number of applicants enrolling at public

schools vs. private schools. The two data sources you’ll need to conduct

your analysis are: Historical applicant data and National Student

Clearinghouse data.

4. From what have been studied, prepare an enrolment forecast using the

different quantitative method and suggest which one is the best for college.

Use the following data:

2-Years Moving
Year Enrollee Naive
Average
 1 2015 - -

2 2100 2015 -

3 2500 2100 2058

4 2750 2500 2300

5 2600 2750 2625

6 2600 2675

Year Enrollee α=0.30 α=0.70

1 2015 For α=0.30 - -

2 2100 Mean2015
Absolute Mean2015
Absolute
Year Actual-Forecast
3 2500 Percent
2041Error Deviation
2075

41 -
2750 -
2179 -
2373

5 2600 2350 2637

6 2425 2611
 2 85 4.05 85

3 459 18.36 459

4 571 20.76 571

5 250 9.62 250

10.56% 273

Year MSE

1 -

2 7225

3 210681

4 326041

5 62500

121289.4

For α=0.70

Mean Absolute Mean Absolute

Year Actual-Forecast
Percent Error Deviation

1 - - -

2 85 4.05 85
 3 459 17 425

4 571 13.71 377

5 250 1.42 37

7.24% 184.8

Year MSE

1 -

2 7225

3 180625

4 142129

5 1369

66267.6

The best quantitative method for St. Andrew College is exponential

smoothing with α=0.70.