Estimating Housing Shortage

Alternate Approaches

AMITABH KUNDU
YEAR-
YEAR-END SEMINAR 2014

OFFICE OF THE REGISTRAR GENERAL & CENSUS

COMMISSIONER, INDIA

ORGI CONFERENCE HALL, WEST BLOCK I, GROUND FLOOR,

NEW DELHI 110066

New Delhi
30 December, 2013
 Alternate Approaches for Estimation
a. Shortage = Households minus Houses?
or just add houseless households
b. Fixed proportions
c. Demand and affordability based shortage
d. Regression equation based on HH and Houses
e. Normative approaches: Households living in
unacceptable housing conditions
 Components of Housing Shortage
Households residing in unacceptable conditions
Obsolescence Factor
• Non Serviceable Katcha (temporary) Houses
• All bad houses excluding those less than 40 years old
• 80 years old houses(Old structurally week)
Congestion Factor (Unacceptable as per social norms)
• Households with one or more married couples
sharing room with a person aged 12 years or more
Houselessness
Households living without any house(open, pavements)
 Issues in Estimating the Shortage
a. Adding the different components
(to include the difference between Households and
houses as done for the Eleventh Plan)
b. Shortage in terms of Households needing houses
not in terms of Housing Units
c. Combining Census and NSS data in making
projections
Alternate Estimates of the Number of
Households as on 1.03.2012
 Top Heaviness in Urban Structure in India
Percentage of Population in Cities with Population over 5 million to
Total Urban Population
Europe Africa Less World Developed Asia South India
Developed Average Countries Central
Countries Asia

7.5 9 15 15.5 16 18 23 23.5

The situation, however, is changing dramatically.

Decline in population growth (adjusted for area
change) in 100,000 plus cities 2.96, 2.76 & 2.45.
Percentage of adult male RU migrants to cities and
towns declining. Population growth rates in top
twenty metro cities declined sharply. Large cities are
exclusionary and in ‘sanitizing’ mode.