Introduction to Probability

Lecture Goals:
Introduce and gain understanding of the basic terms, concepts and
formulas of probability.
California Common Core State Standards Addressed:
Introduction to 7. Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of
events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the

Probability
agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability
to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For
example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability
that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by
Unit: Probability observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For
7th Grade Mathematics example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land
heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the
Aja Juola outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the
observed frequencies?

Wouldn’t it be great to predict the future?

What is Probability?

AS I
SEE IT Given a specified EVENT the PROBABILITY is the
YES CHANCE or LIKELIHOOD that the EVENT will occur.

If you had a magic 8 ball that always told the

truth, what questions would you ask?

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Introduction to Probability

BASIC PROBABILITY FORMULA

KEY TERMS
• Outcome – the result of an experiment. The PROBABILITY of an EVENT E occurring is
abbreviated as:
P(E)
• Event – any particular outcome of or
group of outcomes.

• Sample Space – The set of all outcomes.

EXAMPLE 1: Rolling a Standard Die EXAMPLE 2: Rolling an Odd Number

• EVENT B is rolling an odd number.
• The possible OUTCOMES are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
• The possible odd OUTCOMES are 1, 3, 5.

• The SAMPLE SPACE contains all 6 outcomes. • The SAMPLE SPACE remains the same, .

• So,
• EVENT A is rolling a 4.

• That means you have a 50% chance of rolling an odd number.

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Introduction to Probability

CHECKPOINT #1: CHECKPOINT #1: ANSWER

or or 70%
Let’s say you have a bag of candy
with 14 M&M’s and 6 Skittles. If Computation Reminders:
you eat one piece of candy
without looking, how likely is it
you’ll get an M&M?

CHECKPOINT #1: Breakdown Part 1 CHECKPOINT #1: Breakdown Part 2

• Think of the bag as the SAMPLE SPACE. • EVENT C is eating an M&M. m m m m m m m
• Each piece of candy in the bag is a m m m m m m m
possible OUTCOME. s • We know there are 14 M&Ms in the
bag.
m m
• We know we have 14 M&Ms and 6 Skittles. m m
S m m • So our likelihood of getting an M&M
m m m
m is 14 out of the 20 pieces of candy m m m m
m m s in the bag.
S m m m m m m m
m S m
• So our SAMPLE SPACE contains 20 m •
possible outcomes.
s m m S s S s S S

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Introduction to Probability

IMPOSSIBLE and CERTAIN RANGE OF PROBABILTY

All probability lies between IMPOSSIBLE and CERTAIN.
What’s the probability of m What’s the probability of
getting an M&M out of a getting an M&M out of a All probability lies between 0% chance and 100% chance.
bag of skittles? bag of M&Ms?
Consider these percentages as fractions:

0% 100%

0% There are no 100% There are only

M&Ms in the bag. M&Ms in the bag. 0 1
It’s IMPOSSIBLE. It’s CERTAIN.

So what’s with all the fractions? Probability Line

All probability lies between 0 and 1.

Impossible Unlikely Equally Likely Certain

Likely
0% 25% 75% 100%
Since there are no whole numbers between 0 and 1, 50%
any probability that isn’t impossible or certain must 0 1/4 1/2 3/4 1
be represented as a fraction.

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Introduction to Probability

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS EVENT C’s COMPLEMENT

• EVENT is eating an M&M.
Now let’s say we want to know the • EVENT is NOT eating an M&M.
likelihood an event won’t happen. S s S s S S
s • We know there are 14 M&Ms in the
Going back to our previous example with m m bag and the bag has 20 pieces of
the bag of candy: m m candy. m m m m m m m
S m m
m • So the likelihood of not eating an
We have 14 M&M’s and 6 Skittles.
m m s m m m m m m m
M&M is the same as eating one of
S S the 6 Skittles.
What’s the likelihood you WON’T get an
m
m m S s S s S S
M&M? m
s m •

https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2014/04/02/16/18/bag-306845_960_720.png

COMPLEMENTARY FORMULA CHECKPOINT #2:

1 is for our 100%, our Sample Space. Event was rolling a 4 on a
standard die.
30%
What’s the probability of Event
70%

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Introduction to Probability

CHECKPOINT #2: ANSWER CHECKPOINT #2: Breakdown

Our SAMPLE SPACE for a
standard die is

We can break up our sample 30%

space into EVENT and
EVENT .

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

BREAKING THE MAGIC 8 BALL CREATING A BRIGHTER FUTURE

Inside every magic 8 ball is
icosahedron with 20 sides
containing:
AS I How likely it is you’ll get a
• 10 Positive Answers,
SEE IT positive answer?
YES
“As I See It Yes”
• 5 Negative Answers,
“Very Doubtful”
How unlikely it is you’ll get a
• 5 Uncertain Answers,
negative answer?
“Ask Again Later”

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Introduction to Probability

Make your own

Predictions
1. Use your new knowledge of
Probability to break down how
often you want different types AS I
of answers to appear. SEE IT
2. Fill in the pie graph provided in YES
your notes to display the
percentage break down.
3. Then come up with creative
answers for your Future
Predicting Die to display.
4. Have fun!

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