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Acroeconomics and Ethodology: Hristopher IMS
Acroeconomics and Ethodology: Hristopher IMS
C HRISTOPHER S IMS
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Outline
Rhetoric of economics
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Science as data reduction
Example: Tycho Brahe accumulated large amounts of reliable data on the movements of
the planets. Kepler observed that they are all elliptical orbits with the sun at a focus.
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Critique to the hypothesis testing view
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The role of statistical inference across disciplines
the data are so abundant that allow the available theories to be clearly
ranked ⇒ Experimental natural sciences.
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The role of statistical inference across disciplines
Economics:
Little experimentation possible. Particularly true for macroeconomics.
Exist competing theories - observationally equivalent- to some questions.
Important policy questions demand opinions from economic experts.
Then if:
If data do not make the choice of the theory obvious
and predictions of policy effects depend on the choice of the theory
⇒ experts can only discuss their conclusions only using notions of probability.
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The rhetoric of Economics
⇒ Many economist are willing to use arguments they know are flawed
without explaining the flaws or cite evidence they know could be shown
to be misleading, for sake of rhetorical effectiveness.
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General equilibrium modeling
Still, the models are too stylized and too remote from fitting the data to
provide reliable guide to policy.
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Real Business Cycle School (Kydland and Prescott)
According to K&P:
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Real Business Cycle School (Kydland and Prescott)
RBC research has ignored most of the known facts about the
business cycle in assessing the match between DSGE models and the
facts
⇒ K&P do not document the way theory does and does not match
the data.
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Real Business Cycle School (Kydland and Prescott)
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Real Business Cycle School (Kydland and Prescott)
K&P definition of what constitutes a well tested theory does not suffices
when we need to consider which of two or more models/theories
with different policy implications is more reliable.
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Real Business Cycle School (Kydland and Prescott)
Example:
⇒ “How much of the US postwar economy would have fluctuated if technology shocks had
been the only source of fluctuations?
Approach:
⇒ construct a parametric class of DSGE models in which the parameter indexed the
contribution of technology shocks to fluctuations.
⇒ Examine behavior of model fit as a function of this parameter.
- The model fit is insensitive to the parameter (model weakely identified)
or
- Some sources of impulse response could be ruled out as unlikely, because they implied a
poor fit.
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Progress in quantitative macroeconomics
Streams of research:
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