Bernie Sanders’ 2020 Victory Runs Through the Midwest

April 8, 2019
To: Interested Parties
From: Faiz Shakir
Re: Bernie Sanders’ 2020 Victory Runs Through the Midwest

Ahead of upcoming events in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, this memo attempts to
detail how​ Democrats’ clearest and strongest path to victory in 2020 runs through the
upper midwest, and​ ​Bernie Sanders is by far the best positioned candidate to win these
states and defeat Donald Trump​, the ​top priority​ for Democratic primary voters.

Electoral Math: Three Key States

A brief analysis of the 2020 Electoral College map shows the
most direct path to a Democratic victory is flipping back
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. When added to
states generally regarded as “solid,” “likely” and “leaning”
Democratic victories, these three swing states’ 46 Electoral
College votes would secure the 270 votes needed to win. This
math makes the case clear that out of the entire Democratic
field of both declared and likely candidates, ​Bernie Sanders
is best positioned beat Donald Trump in 2020 due to
Sanders’ strengths in Wisconsin, Michigan and
Pennsylvania.

For example, Democrats could still lose all the traditional

battleground states Florida and Ohio, the expanding sunbelt
battleground states Texas and Arizona, and the newly
competitive southern battleground states of North Carolina
and Georgia -- and still win the White House in 2020 with
Bernie Sanders securing wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and
Pennsylvania. Of course, it should be noted that ​Bernie
Sanders strongly appeals to voters in each of these
battleground states​ listed, as well as additional states in the
midwest, especially Iowa, Ohio and Indiana.
By The Numbers: Sanders In Commanding Position In WI, MI & PA
Polls of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania show Bernie Sanders is in a commanding
position, in both the Democratic primary and in a general election matchup with Donald Trump.

In Wisconsin, where Bernie Sanders won 71 of 72 counties in the 2016 open primary, ​Emerson
Polling (3/15-3/17)​ found Sanders is holding a strong lead in the primary with 39% of the vote.
In their findings, Emerson Polling notes “our poll shows that in Wisconsin, ​Sanders maintains
the coalition he built in 2016 that earned him nearly 54% of the vote,​” and hold a large lead
with 61% of 18-29 year olds. For a general election matchup, the poll found Sanders leads
Trump 52% to 48%, tied for the largest margin of any declared candidate.

In Michigan, a ​WDIV/Detroit News (1/24-1/26)​ general election poll found Sanders opening a
wide 52% to 41.2% lead over Donald Trump. Showing a broad appeal to swing voters in this
battleground, the poll noted ​Sanders won 51.7% to 32.8% -- an 18.9-point lead -- with
independents. ​And while polling before the 2016 primary showed Sanders down double digits
days before he won the state in an open primary, recent ​Emerson​ Michigan primary polling
found Sanders in the top two for first choice (23%) and “the most popular alternative with 42%.”

In Pennsylvania, a ​recent Emerson Polling (3/26-3/28)​ survey found ​Sanders leads Trump by
10 points (55% to 45%) -- tied with the largest lead​ among potential challengers. In the
primary matchup, Sanders scored 20%, including a leading 33% of voters 18-29 years old. This
strong support from energized young voters led Emerson Polling to note that “Sanders in this
years state polling is consistently keeping between 35% to 60% of his vote from 2016,
suggesting he has a strong base of supporters to work with.” Sanders also did well with voters in
the “T”, with strong performances in rural areas and small towns.

Bernie Sanders grassroots support in each of these states is further illustrated by his strong early
fundraising, with thousands of voters in each state already contributing to his campaign. In the
less than six weeks since his campaign launch, Bernie Sanders has received contributions from
supporters numbering over 8,000 in Wisconsin, over 14,000 in Michigan and over 18,000 in
Pennsylvania.
Issues Driving The Support: Sanders’ Unique Credibility on Failed Corporate
Trade Deals, Working Families, and Good-Paying Jobs
Behind the numbers showing Sanders strong support in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
is a ​unique, authentic message about trade, unions, working families and health care.
Voters in these states, across many demographic groups, are looking for a message that
understands the deep, unaddressed concerns of working families, and shows a commitment to
fighting against the decades of policy in Washington that has led to job loss, closed factories and
hollowed-out local economies.

Trade
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all share a similar economic history of their industrial
base being hollowed out by trade deals that outsourced jobs and undermined wages for workers.
This has led to a very strong opposition to trade deals like NAFTA and TPP among voters both
directly and indirectly impacted by those policies, and explains Donald Trump's phony but
aggressive opposition to corporate trade deals like NAFTA. ​With his well-established history
of fighting against NAFTA and TPP, Bernie stands out in the primary field. ​While other
candidates are closely associated with some of these trade deals or have hesitated in expressing
their opposition to NAFTA and TPP, Sanders is known for promptly and thoroughly denouncing
bad trade policy.​ ​Voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are looking for candidates
who pledge to fight for fair trade deals that ensure living wages for American workers, not bad
trade deals that just enrich CEOs. ​Sanders’ ability to directly speak about and testify to the
destruction trade deals have dealt across the midwest is backed-up​ ​by decades of votes and
public comments​ that further strengthen the trust voters have in his approach.

Fighting for Working Families and Unions

In addition to a clear, consistent and popular trade message, Bernie Sanders also has also
communicated to voters he will put working families ahead of powerful special interests.
Sanders message to voters in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania includes an
explicit call to empower and strengthen unions​, which are facing challenges unique to each
state. In Wisconsin and Michigan, anti-union laws were passed by Republican governors, both of
whom have been replaced by Democrats who held campaign rallies with Bernie Sanders in 2018.
Sanders is leading the debate in the primary with his introduction of the Workplace Democracy
Act, a landmark labor bill that would make it easier for workers to form a union. In addition to
legislation, Sanders has built on this message with a national -- and successful -- push to raise
wages for Amazon workers, as well as visits to union halls in Wisconsin, an economic justice
rally in Michigan and supporting the UE Local 506 and 618 workers strike at Wabtec in Erie,
Pennsylvania -- the largest manufacturing strike of Trump’s presidency.
Medicare for All
In addition to these economic arguments, ​Bernie Sanders has become the national leader on
the issue voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania ranked most important: Health
Care. ​While all three of these states went for Republicans in 2016, in 2018 Democrats won
statewide with campaigns that focused on Medicaid expansion and lowering health care costs,
with multiple Medicare for All-endorsing candidates winning elections throughout the region.
Health care remains a top concern for voters in these three states as people are still struggling
with rising health care costs and prescription drug prices. Since Senator Sanders introduced
Medicare for All in 2017, support has continued to grow as Democrats across the country
demand America join every other major country on Earth and guarantee health care to all people
as a right, not a privilege.