Use mechanical method

-120000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -50000
250000 90000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-50000 20000
-80000

1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract

0 -50000

Do not prepare proposal

0 0
se mechanical method
80000
80000

0.5
Electronic success
150000
y electronic method 0 150000

90000 0.5
Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000

0.7
Magnetic success
120000
y magnetic method 0 120000

84000 0.3
Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0

-50000

0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000
$250,000 $90,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 $20,000
-$80,000

1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract

$0 -$50,000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
e mechanical method
$80,000
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
electronic method $0 $150,000

$90,000 0.5
Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
magnetic method $0 $120,000

$84,000 0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0

-$50,000

$0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
2 -$50,000
$250,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000
-$80,000

1 0.5
Not awarded contract

$0

Do not prepare proposal

$0
se mechanical method
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
y electronic method $0

0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1 $30,000
$0 -$120,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
y magnetic method $0

0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1 $0
$0 -$120,000

-$50,000

$0
ID Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2
0 0 0 D 2 1 2
0 0 E 2 3 4
0 0 T 0 0 0
1 D 3 5 6
1 T 0 0 0
0 3 T 0 0 0
0 3 E 2 8 9
0 3 E 2 10 11
6 T 0 0 0
6 D 1 12 0
7 T 0 0 0
7 D 1 13 0
0 9 T 0 0 0
0 11 T 0 0 0
S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 0 25 1 1
0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 32 5 1
7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 2 13 1
0 0 0 9 13 1
0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 12 21 1
0 0 0 22 21 1
 Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method

Awarded contract
### -$50,000
$250,000 #NAME?
#NAME?

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000 #NAME?
#NAME? -$80,000

### 0.5
#NAME? Not awarded contract
#NAME?
$0 -$50,000
#NAME?

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
#NAME?
 Label in cell on left is the
se mechanical method defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
$80,000 RT
#NAME?
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
y electronic method $0 $150,000
#NAME?
#NAME? 0.5
#NAME? Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
#NAME?
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
y magnetic method $0 $120,000
#NAME?
#NAME? 0.3
#NAME? Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
#NAME?

-$50,000

$0
abel in cell on left is the
efined name of cell on right.

$150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2
1 0 0 E 2
2 0 0 T 0
3 1 D 3
4 1 T 0
5 0 3 T 0
6 0 3 E 2
7 0 3 E 2
8 6 T 0
9 6 T 0
10 7 T 0
11 7 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
1 2 0 0 0 25 1
3 4 0 0 0 18 5
0 0 0 0 0 32 5
5 6 7 0 0 10 9
0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 2 13
8 9 0 0 0 9 13
10 11 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 0 22 17
Mark
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000 80000
0.787

Prepare proposal

-$50,000 1336.53846
0.394

1 0.5
1336.53846 Not awarded contract
0.394
$0 -$50,000
0.000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.385
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.787
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
1.000
-$50,000 78306.9772 0.5
0.781 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.561
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.921
-$80,000 73034.5626 0.3
0.760 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.385

-$50,000

$0
Label in cell on left is the Value Risk Utility
defined name of cell on right. -$50,000 0.00000
-$45,000 0.04452
RT $150,000 -$40,000 0.08758
-$35,000 0.12923
Low -$50,000 U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951
High $150,000 U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
-$20,000 0.24616
A 1.35795235 -$15,000 0.28260
B 0.97301538 -$10,000 0.31786
-$5,000 0.35196
$0 0.38494
$5,000 0.41684
$10,000 0.44769
$15,000 0.47753
$20,000 0.50640
$25,000 0.53431
$30,000 0.56131
$35,000 0.58743
$40,000 0.61269
$45,000 0.63712
$50,000 0.66076
$55,000 0.68361
$60,000 0.70572
$65,000 0.72710
$70,000 0.74779
$75,000 0.76779
$80,000 0.78714
$85,000 0.80585
$90,000 0.82395
$95,000 0.84146
$100,000 0.85839
$105,000 0.87477
$110,000 0.89061
$115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
DriveTek Risk Utility Function
1.00000

0.90000

0.80000

0.70000

0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000
-$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $15
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
$100,000 $150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D
1 0 0 E
2 0 0 T
3 1 D
4 1 T
5 0 3 T
6 0 3 E
7 0 3 E
8 6 T
9 6 T
10 7 T
11 7 T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
6.00E-08
1.67E+07