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Vol. 87 No.

2 February 1999

ORAL SURGERY,
ORAL MEDICINE,
ORAL PATHOLOGY,

REVIEW ARTICLE

Meta-analysis in oral health care


Andrew J. Palmer, BSc, MB, BS,a and Peter P. Sendi, MD,b Basel, Switzerland
INSTITUTE FOR MEDICAL INFORMATICS AND BIOSTATISTICS AND UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL

(Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 1999;87:135-41)

Meta-analyses are increasingly reported in the medical number of synonyms, including statistical overview,
literature.1 Publication of meta-analyses occurs with quantitative synthesis, combining, pooling, and
some regularity in dental periodicals, but until now weighted averaging.
such publication has not yet manifested the explosive
growth that has been seen in the medical literature. In A BRIEF HISTORY OF META-ANALYSIS
the future, the application of meta-analytic techniques The first simplistic forms of meta-analyses,
in the field of dental research is expected to become published in agricultural science literature in the
more prominent.2,3 Meta-analyses combine and 1920s, pooled the results of studies assessing the
summarize the results of multiple studies and describe effects of different fertilizers on crop yields. During
the true clinical effects of interventions more accu- the 1930s, the first statistical methods for combining
rately than do small individual studies. Meta-analysis data from different studies were described.9-12 The
has been both hailed1,4 and vilified5-7 within the scien- first medical meta-analysis was published in 1955
tific community. The following article briefly outlines and assessed the size of the placebo effect in various
the history and background of meta-analysis and medical conditions.13 The word meta-analysis first
describes its methods, strengths, and weaknesses. This appeared in 1976 in an education study that assessed
article should help dentists to assess the quality of academic achievement in relation to class size.14 The
published meta-analyses and to understand, interpret, first meta-analysis in medicine using modern tech-
and apply the results of them in clinical practice. niques was published in 1977. 15 The Potsdam
Consultation on meta-analysis in 1994 was a land-
DEFINITION OF META-ANALYSIS mark debate in the modern era of meta-analysis; at
Meta-analysis applies scientific strategies that limit that conference, methodologic standards for the
bias to the systematic identification and collection, meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials were
critical appraisal, and synthesis of all relevant studies established and guidelines were published.8 In oral
on a specific topic. It uses statistical methods to health care, the first meta-analysis indexed in the
combine and summarize the results of several Medline database was published in 1989; it evaluated
studies.8 Meta-analyses are therefore useful tools in the effectiveness of tolonium chloride in oral cancer
decision-making and health technology assessment. screening.16 This was followed shortly thereafter by
Meta-analysis (also spelled met-analysis and meta- a meta-analysis that investigated the effects of
analysis) may be referred to in the literature under a different fluoride delivery systems. 17 A search of
Medline for the years 1986 to 1997 using, alone and
aMedical Director, Institute for Medical Informatics and in combination, the medical subject head (MeSH)
Biostatistics, Riehen/Basel, Switzerland. indexing terms “meta-analysis” and “dentistry” and
bInternal Medicine Outpatient Department, University Hospital,
using the publication type “meta-analysis,” as well as
Basel, Switzerland. free-form topic searches using the words “meta-
Received for publication July 6, 1998; returned for revision Aug 28,
1998; accepted for publication Sept 14, 1998.
analysis,” dentistry,” and “dental,” revealed a total of
Copyright © 1999 by Mosby, Inc. 47 dentistry-related meta-analyses published in this
1079-2104/99/$8.00 + 0 7/12/94508 time span (Fig 1).

135
136 Palmer and Sendi ORAL SURGERY ORAL MEDICINE ORAL PATHOLOGY
February 1999

REASONS FOR PERFORMING META- studies written by the reviewer, studies published in
ANALYSIS major journals, and studies reporting significant results
Because of the small number of patients in many that support the reviewer’s claims; and (6) failure,
clinical trials, studies often do not have enough statis- usually, to produce a quantifiable overall statistical
tical power to assess the statistical relationships conclusion or set of meaningful summary results.
between interventions and outcomes. Combination of Meta-analysis was developed partly as an attempt to
the results of a number of small studies may increase overcome the weaknesses of the standard narrative
the statistical power to detect small to moderate but review as they have been outlined here. However, a
significant effects. Meta-analysis may allow a single meta-analysis that is not performed according to a
estimation of the effect of an intervention in the face of stringent method may be prone to the same weaknesses
contradictory results from different studies assessing as the narrative review.
outcomes for the same intervention. The summarizing
effects of meta-analysis provide a method for dealing META-ANALYSIS’ GREATEST WEAKNESS: BIAS
with the explosion of information that has been seen in Because of the retrospective nature of meta-analysis,
recent decades, thus providing a comprehensive it is subject to the dangers of bias. Bias can take many
overview of results in a given area of research. Through forms, and each may result in a distortion of the results.
the rigorous process of identification of all existing Publication bias is the preferential publication of posi-
data relevant to a particular topic, meta-analyses may tive or statistically significant results over negative or
be useful to quantify existing levels of data, thereby nonsignificant results because of selective submission
identifying areas in which questions have already been of papers, selective acceptance of papers by journal
answered, and to identify data gaps in particular areas editors, and/or selective reporting of results that in the
of research. Thus meta-analysis can assist in the plan- study were found not to be favorable. Citation bias is
ning of future research. Some government guidelines the tendency of review articles to quote supporting
recommend meta-analysis as the preferred method of evidence, thereby increasing the likelihood that these
summarizing evidence of effectiveness and safety of studies will be identified for inclusion in a meta-
health technologies in the face of multiple study analysis as a result of searches through the references
results.18 Clinicians, policy-makers, and consumers of review articles and that nonsupporting evidence will
can all potentially benefit from an increased under- not be cited (thus decreasing the likelihood of identifi-
standing and application of meta-analyses.8,19,20 cation of such evidence for inclusion in the meta-
The alternative to meta-analysis, the standard narra- analysis). Multiple publication bias occurs when
tive review, is fraught with problems and is regarded as results from a single study are included in a meta-
an inadequate quantitative method of summarizing the analysis 2 or more times. This may occur when care is
effects of interventions. not taken to identify “studies” that report results from
subgroups of a single study in different articles or when
AN ALTERNATIVE TO META-ANALYSIS: THE the same study is reported in articles written by
NARRATIVE REVIEW different authors, sometimes with slightly different
The standard narrative review, at its worst, is a nonsys- results. Inclusion of multiple publications of the results
tematic collection of evidence representing the views of of the same trial may result in an overestimation of the
an author—views based on a possibly biased selection benefits of the intervention that is being assessed by
from the published literature.21 The main limitations of means of the meta-analysis, inasmuch as significant
the narrative review are as follows: (1) subjectivity—no results from one study are more likely to be reported
formal inclusion or exclusion criteria defined for the multiple times. In addition, large studies are also more
studies considered and no rules for analyzing and likely to be reported multiple times, which again can
assessing the results of the included studies; (2) a scien- lead to overestimation of an intervention’s effect if
tifically unsound method that often ignores sample size, results are inadvertently included a number of times.
effect size, and study quality and design when combining Language bias occurs when studies are included on the
study results and frequently involves simply comparing basis of the language in which they are written. When
the total numbers of positive and negative studies; (3) included studies are limited to those published in
inefficiency, leading to difficulties in accurately dealing English, the results of the meta-analysis may be
with large numbers of studies covering a particular area distorted because of the omission of studies written in
and in determining the relationships and interactions other languages.22 Finally, researchers performing the
among the many variables within the studies; (4) nonex- meta-analysis may be consciously or subconsciously
haustivity with regard to the identification of eligible influenced by the source of funding for the study,
studies for inclusion; (5) bias—the tendency to report which may influence decisions about the studies that
ORAL SURGERY ORAL MEDICINE ORAL PATHOLOGY Palmer and Sendi 137
Volume 87, Number 2

Fig 1. Number of oral health–related meta-analyses identified in Medline search for years 1986-1997.

are to be included or excluded or the way in which data cations—ie, the same study reported by different
are abstracted or interpreted in the meta-analysis.23 authors and/or under different titles and/or in different
journals—must be identified, documented, and
STEPS INVOLVED IN PERFORMING A META- excluded, as must any report that involves a patient
ANALYSIS group that is a subset of a patient population identified
1. A priori definition of meta-analysis protocol in another published report. The inclusion of multiple
The meta-analysis must address a specific clinical publications may bias the outcome of the meta-
question, which subsequently influences the type of analysis.24 The reason(s) for inclusion or exclusion of
studies that will be relevant and the type of data to be each study assessed must be explained. The methods
synthesized. Therefore, it is essential that the protocol by which decisions on inclusion or exclusion from the
be developed and clearly stated before the commence- meta-analysis were made must be transparent, and the
ment of the processes involved in meta-analysis. The results must be reproducible. The protocol must
question(s) to be answered by the meta-analysis should specify the data to be abstracted from each source and
be formulated in terms that address parameters of clin- the form the abstracted data must take—ie, a standard-
ical significance, such as effectiveness and safety ized data extraction form must be developed. The
outcomes. It must specify the study identification and protocol must specify the methods of source quality
retrieval methods to be used, as well as criteria for rating. Any changes to the protocol after the
study inclusion or exclusion from the meta-analysis. commencement of the meta-analysis process should be
The inclusion/exclusion criteria must stipulate the reported and clearly justified.
study design to be included (usually randomized,
controlled trials), the patient population to be assessed, 2. Study search and data identification
the type of disease, the classification of the disease to The main goal of the study search is to identify all
be investigated by stage or severity and duration, the appropriate and relevant data, published and unpub-
treatment or intervention to be assessed (in terms of lished, for possible inclusion in the meta-analysis.
treatment /intervention type and duration and whether Omission of studies through failure to identify important
the treatment involves monotherapy or a combination relevant studies leaves the way open for criticism and
of therapies), prior or concomitant treatment received accusations of bias or deliberate manipulation of results.
by the patient population, minimum amount of effec- Sources available for searching include electronic data-
tiveness and/or safety data to be included in the study bases such as Medline, Grateful Med, Embase, and
report, and minimum quality standard. Multiple publi- Cancer-Lit. Each of these electronic databases differs
138 Palmer and Sendi ORAL SURGERY ORAL MEDICINE ORAL PATHOLOGY
February 1999

Table I. Checklist of appropriate steps in performance of meta-analysis


1. A priori definition of meta-analysis protocol
Addresses specific question
Specifies study search procedure
Specifies inclusion/exclusion criteria
2. Study search and data identification
Multiple electronic database searching, hand-searching, reference list scanning, consultation with experts
3. Data extraction
Extracted by more than 1 person following written protocol, using standardization data extraction forms
4. Quality assessment of retrieved articles
Uses validated source quality rating score
5. Test for heterogeneity
Defines a priori significant level of heterogeneity
Uses relevant statistical test for heterogeneity—eg, chi-square test
Identifies/explains causes of significant heterogeneity
Uses random effects model if studies shown to be heterogeneous
Interprets results cautiously if studies heterogeneous
6. Statistical combination of data
Justifies use of fixed or random effects model in presence/absence of heterogeneity
Calculates clinically relevant outcomes—eg, odds ratios, relative risks, number needed to treat
Calculates confidence intervals/measures of variance of outcomes
7. Tests for publication bias
Funnel plots
8. Sensitivity analysis
Cumulative meta-analysis based on publication date, event rates, study size, effect size, study quality
9. Presentation of results
Includes tabulated summary of included/excluded trials, tabulated and graphic presentation of results
10. Interpretation and discussion of results
Interprets results in terms of current clinical practice
Discusses strengths and limitations
Discusses significance of results in comparison with individual included studies and other meta-analyses

from the others in content, time frame covered, and Multiple extraction, in which 2 or more investigators
primary focus. Medline, for example, focuses mainly on abstract the data from each study independently and
clinical medicine journals published since 1964; compare their results on completion, facilitates repro-
Embase, on the other hand, indexes journals, conference ducibility of the data extraction process, identifies data
proceedings, books, and dissertations since 1974. entry errors, and identifies areas of ambiguity or confu-
Accordingly, there may be only 30% to 40% overlap sion, which may be resolved through discussion at the
between Medline-referenced and Embase-referenced completion of data extraction. The method of data
articles (data presented during a course at Deutsches extraction must be documented a priori, and extraction
Institut für Medizinische Dokumentation und should be completed through use of a standardized data
Information [German Institute for Medical extraction form. Such a form is used to record and
Documentation and Information], Cologne, Germany, present the extracted data in a systematic way under the
February 1995). Review articles, conference proceed- broad headings of a summary of trial characteristics,
ings, symposia proceedings, industry reports, books, effectiveness parameters, clinical safety parameters,
memoranda from expert consultations, and results of and laboratory safety parameters; it should also include
manual searching of literature lists of retrieved articles the source quality rating score. Where data are incom-
should be scanned for additional potential data sources. plete or unclear, discussion with the study authors is to
In cases in which language limitations have been applied be encouraged. Where missing information is unob-
to the search, the nature of these restrictions must be tainable, it should be explicitly stated that this infor-
specified. The protocol for the search must be docu- mation was not stated or was not provided.
mented and transparent and the results reproducible.
4. Quality assessment of retrieved articles
3. Data extraction Each data source should be assessed in terms of the
Data extraction should be performed by 2 or more quality of the data presented. Source quality rating
blinded extractors following a written protocol. should be performed through use of a validated stan-
ORAL SURGERY ORAL MEDICINE ORAL PATHOLOGY Palmer and Sendi 139
Volume 87, Number 2

dardized score that assesses the quality of study design, Table II. Minimum requirements for good-quality
statistical analysis of the effectiveness and safety para- meta-analysis
meters, and presentation of the study results.25 The Identification and inclusion of all relevant studies/data
method for the source quality rating must be trans- Exhaustive search for both published and unpublished data
parent and reproducible. The source quality rating Similar treatments in included trials
score can be used to exclude studies with quality scores Are all interventions comparable and results combinable?
Similar doses of drugs/intensities of interventions
below a certain predefined value, or it can be used as a
Similar timing of administration of interventions
weighting factor in the analysis. Finally, the source Comparable patients in included trials
quality rating score can be used in the sensitivity Age
analysis, in which studies of lower quality are removed Gender
from the meta-analysis and the effects on the meta- Disease duration
Disease severity
analysis results are examined. (Sensitivity analysis is
Coexisting illnesses
discussed in more detail in step 8.) Concomitant medications influencing effectiveness and
safety
5. Tests for heterogeneity Comparable outcomes in included trials
A group of studies is considered to be homogeneous if Studies assess same outcome measures of patient response
Outcomes must be measured by comparable methods
all of them are attempting to estimate or observe the
Similar follow-up lengths in included trials
same true effect and if variability between results of the Decreasing effectiveness of interventions over time
different studies is due to random error only (intrastudy Increasing dropouts because of ineffectiveness over time
variability). Heterogeneity occurs when the true effect Increasing percentage of patients experiencing side effects
differs between studies and is therefore represented by a over time
Increasing dropouts because of side effects over time
distribution of values rather than a single number. A
Adequate quality of included trials
statistical test for heterogeneity calculates the proba- “Garbage in = garbage out”
bility that differences between the observed results of
the individual studies could have occurred by random
variation alone. If that probability is below a certain
level—eg, if it is less than 0.05—then the studies are and that available data are not similar enough to allow
said to be heterogeneous. A statistical definition of synthesis. This result, with the reason for the inability to
significant heterogeneity (eg, P < .05) should be speci- perform the meta-analysis, should be reported.
fied a priori; an assessment of heterogeneity of the
studies included in the meta-analysis should be then 6. Statistical combination of data
made through use of an appropriate statistical test, such The statistical analysis of the data abstracted from the
as the chi-square test.8 Where significant heterogeneity studies included in the meta-analysis should cover all
is found to exist, the sources of heterogeneity should be relevant and clinically useful measures of treatment
identified and explained. Potential sources of hetero- effectiveness and safety and should be expressed in terms
geneity include differences between studies in any of the of a clinically meaningful outcome, such as odds ratio,
following areas: patient baseline and demographic char- relative risk, absolute probabilities, or number needed to
acteristics; study protocols, doses, and the timing of treat (ie, how many patients need to be treated to prevent
administration of interventions; rules for reporting, clas- one patient from experiencing an event). The type of
sification, and grading of side effects experienced by statistical model used should reflect the nature of the
patients; rules for dropping out because of ineffective- trials analyzed, and the use of a fixed-effects or random-
ness and/or toxicity; and study conditions, clinical tech- effects model should be specified and justified. The
niques, and patient management over the time period fixed-effects method provides an estimate of single
elapsed.26 Pooling of results and interpretation should be underlying effects, taking only intrastudy variability into
done only with caution and only after the existence of account when calculating pooled values weighted by
heterogeneity between included studies has been identi- study size. It assumes that all studies are observing the
fied.26 If heterogeneity cannot be explained, this should same true effect and that variability is due to random
be acknowledged, and the subsequent limitations error only. The random-effects model, which takes inter-
imposed by this should be identified and explained. study variation into account, provides a more conserva-
In some cases, after literature searching, data extrac- tive estimate (usually with wider confidence intervals)
tion, data source quality rating, and assessment for and may be used when included studies are more hetero-
heterogeneity, meta-analysis may not be possible. geneous in nature. The random-effects method assumes
Among the possible reasons for this are that insufficient that the true effect differs between studies and is therefore
information is available, that data are of poor quality, represented by a distribution of values rather than by a
140 Palmer and Sendi ORAL SURGERY ORAL MEDICINE ORAL PATHOLOGY
February 1999

single number. The results should be expressed with The results of the meta-analysis should be presented as
confidence intervals and should include an analysis and clinically useful measures, such as the number of
statement of the significance level of the results obtained. patients needed to treat to prevent an event,29 and
should be presented in tabulated and graphic forms,
7. Tests for publication bias with confidence intervals clearly stated.
Publication bias arises whenever studies with positive
and/or statistically significant results are more likely to 10. Interpretation and discussion of the results
be published than those with negative and/or nonsignifi- The results of the meta-analysis should be discussed
cant results; it is brought about mainly by selective in terms of current clinical practice. The strengths and
submission and acceptance/publication of papers. This weaknesses of both the individual studies included in
may lead to an overestimation of the positive effects and the meta-analysis and the limitations of the meta-
an underestimation of the negative effects of interven- analysis itself should be acknowledged and discussed.
tions assessed. A simple graphic test for publication bias The results of the meta-analysis and the power of these
is the funnel plot, in which individual trial effect esti- results should be discussed in the context of the results
mates are plotted against sample size.27 In the absence of of the individual studies included and in comparison
publication bias, the funnel plot of a large number of with other meta-analyses that have been performed.
trials can be expected to be symmetrically distributed in
an inverted funnel shape around a chosen reference CONCLUSION
point.; studies with small sample sizes will be scattered When reading a meta-analysis and attempting to judge
broadly and symmetrically around the base of the its quality, the reader can use the points listed in Table I
funnel, with the degree of scatter lessening with as a checklist of appropriate steps that should have been
increasing study size (and accuracy). If, however, publi- carried out by the study authors. The reader can use the
cation bias is present, the plot will be asymmetrical, minimum requirements for a good-quality meta-analysis
typically with an absence of small studies at the base of listed in Table II to further assist in judging the quality
the funnel on the side representing no effect of the inter- of a meta-analysis. If one or more steps have been
vention. However, publication bias may not be the only omitted or if criteria have not been fulfilled, then the
cause of asymmetry, which can also arise as a result of quality of the meta-analysis, and therefore the applica-
language bias, citation bias, multiple publication bias, bility of the results, conclusions, and recommendations
poor methodologic design (partiuclarly in small studies), drawn from it, may be called into question.
and heterogeneity of the included studies. Moreover, in Meta-analysis is a state-of-the-art method of summa-
meta-analyses with relatively small numbers of trials in rizing the increasing amounts of information that are
each treatment arm, asymmetry may arise by chance.27 generated from clinical research, but any meta-analysis
shares the weaknesses of the original studies and also has
8. Sensitivity analysis a potential for bias because of the retrospective nature of
Sensitivity analysis should be performed to assess the technique. Understanding the principles and methods
the robustness of the outcomes of the meta-analysis involved in meta-analysis will help the dental practitioner
with respect to changes in the studies included. This to assess the value of meta-analyses encountered in the
can be performed in a number of ways, including literature. When high-standard meta-analyses are used in
assessment of the effect of sequential removal of trials clinical decision-making, an improvement in the quality
identified as a cause of heterogeneity (outliers) and of dental care may be anticipated.
cumulative meta-analysis, in which the effects of
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CALL FOR LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

A separate and distinct space for Letters to the Editor was established by Larry J. Peterson, editor in
chief of Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology, Oral Radiology, and Endodontics in his Editorial
in the January 1993 issue.
Dr Peterson also encouraged brief reports on interesting observations and new developments to be
submitted to appear in this letters section as well as Letters commenting on earlier published articles.
Please submit your letters and brief reports for inclusion in this section. Information for authors for
the Journal appears in this issue of Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology, Oral Radiology, and
Endodontics.
We look forward to hearing from you.

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