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Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Financial Economics


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jfec

Behavioral biases of mutual fund investors$


Warren Bailey a,n, Alok Kumar b, David Ng c,d
a
Cornell University, Johnson Graduate School of Management, USA
b
University of Miami, School of Business Administration, USA
c
Cornell University, USA
d
University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o abstract

Article history: We examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample
Received 19 October 2009 of US discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news, tax
Received in revised form awareness, and fund-level familiarity bias, in addition to behavioral and demographic
6 July 2010
characteristics of earlier studies. Behaviorally biased investors typically make poor
Accepted 9 July 2010
Available online 27 May 2011
decisions about fund style and expenses, trading frequency, and timing, resulting in
poor performance. Furthermore, trend chasing appears related to behavioral biases,
JEL classification: rather than to rationally inferring managerial skill from past performance. Factor
G11 analysis suggests that biased investors often conform to stereotypes that can be
D03
characterized as Gambler, Smart, Overconfident, Narrow Framer, and Mature.
D14
& 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Individual investors
Mutual funds
Trend chasing
Behavioral biases
Factor analysis

1. Introduction

Previous studies of behavioral biases in the investment


decisions of individual investors focus on the selection of
$
We thank an anonymous referee, Malcolm Baker (American Finance individual stocks. Odean (1998, 1999), Barber and Odean
Association discussant), Nick Barberis, Robert Battalio, Zahi Ben-David, (2001), and other empirical studies show that the stock-
Garrick Blalock, Charles Chang, Susan Christoffersen, Josh Coval, Andrew picking decisions of individual investors exhibit a variety
Karolyi, George Korniotis, Lisa Kramer, Charles Lee, Ulrike Malmendier
(AFA session chair), J. Spencer Martin, Jay Ritter, René Stulz, Jeremy
of behavioral biases. However, little work has been done
Tobacman, Jeff Wurgler, and seminar participants at BSI Gamma Foun- to link the decision-making biases of individuals to their
dation conference (Frankfurt), Cornell University, Federal Reserve Bank mutual fund investments. Understanding the role of
of Boston, Ohio State’s Alumni Summer conference, Northern Finance behavioral biases in individual mutual fund decisions is
Association meetings, McGill University, and 2009 AFA meetings (San
important for several reasons.
Francisco) for comments and helpful discussions. We also thank Zoran
Ivković and Lu Zheng for providing data for identifying the mutual funds First, individual investors increasingly use mutual
in our sample. We are grateful to the BSI Gamma Foundation for funds to invest in the equity market instead of trading
financial support. Taehoon Lim provided excellent research assistance. individual stocks. French (2008, p. 1539) reports: ‘‘Indivi-
All remaining errors and omissions are our own. Early presentations of duals hold 47.9% of the market in 1980 and only 21.5% in
this paper were entitled ‘‘Why Do Individual Investors Hold Stocks and
High-Expense Funds Instead of Index Funds?’’
2007. This decline is matched by an increase in the
n
Corresponding author. holdings of open-end mutual funds, from 4.6% in 1980
E-mail address: Wbb1@cornell.edu (W. Bailey). to 32.4% in 2007.’’ Hence, it is increasingly important to

0304-405X/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.05.002
2 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

understand how individual investors hold and trade instead of risk-adjusted expected returns (Chevalier and
mutual funds. Ellison, 1997). It could also reflect inferring managerial
Second, even though direct stock trading by indivi- skill from past returns (Sirri and Tufano, 1998; Gruber,
duals has declined, their mutual fund investment deci- 1996; Berk and Green, 2004). However, with the excep-
sions can affect stock returns indirectly. Coval and tion of the experimental data used by Choi, Laibson and
Stafford (2007) argue that large flows force some mutual Madrian (2010), these authors study aggregate fund
funds to trade heavily, causing price pressure for secu- flows, not individual investor behavior.
rities held across many funds. Previous papers show that In contrast to previous studies, we link the decision-
mutual fund flows affect individual stock returns. Gruber making biases of particular individual investors to their
(1996) and Zheng (1999) find that fund flows are followed individual history of mutual fund investing using a
by positive short-term fund returns, perhaps due to a database of tens of thousands of brokerage records of US
momentum effect. Frazzini and Lamont (2008) show that individual investors. The key to our experiment is the
mutual fund flows appear to be ‘‘dumb money’’: Fund use of individual investor records of stock holdings and
inflows are associated with low future returns, while trading to estimate the behavioral bias proxies that pre-
outflows are associated with high future returns. vious authors have used to explain how investors trade
Third, the manner in which individuals employ mutual individual stocks. These individual behavioral bias proxies
funds cuts right to the heart of basic principles of financial are, in turn, related to the mutual fund holdings and trading
management. Traditional portfolio choice models imply a of those individuals in a variety of empirical specifications
simple investment strategy based on well-diversified, low that reveal different facets of mutual fund investor
expense mutual funds and minimal portfolio rebalancing. behavior.
Index funds, and other equity funds with low fees and low We can easily imagine behavioral biases affecting
turnover, are cheap, convenient vehicles for individual mutual fund selection. For example, the disposition effect
investors to implement such a strategy. The extent to (selling winners too quickly and holding losers too long)
which individuals adhere to these principles in their use could lead some investors to overestimate expected
of mutual funds is an important measure of the rationality holding periods and mistakenly select high front-end load
and effectiveness with which investors approach capital funds. Investors with narrow framing bias (buying and
markets. selling individual assets without considering total portfo-
The purpose of our paper is to test whether behavioral lio effects), overconfidence (frequent trading plus poor
biases explain why the use of mutual funds varies sub- performance), or a preference for speculative stocks could
stantially across individual investors and often departs select funds that facilitate aggressive switching across
from the simple strategies suggested by classic theories. asset classes without considering higher fees. Local bias
The growing literature on behavioral finance has uncov- (preference for stocks of companies geographically close
ered a variety of decision-making biases in how investors to home) could induce the selection of locally managed
use individual common stocks. These behavioral forces mutual funds without regard to cost or expected perfor-
should also have an impact on whether a particular mance. Investors who view their portfolios in terms of
investor uses mutual funds and whether she uses them layers that serve different purposes (Shefrin and Statman,
effectively. 2000) could demonstrate different behavior in their use of
The mutual fund literature has already revealed two individual stocks versus mutual funds. For example, if
specific anomalies. First, individual investors buy funds mutual funds are viewed as substantially safer than
with high fees. Gruber (1996) and Barber, Odean and selecting individual stocks on their own, investors could
Zheng (2005) show that many individual investors hold let their guard down and spend less time assessing fund
significant positions in high expense mutual funds. Even performance and costs. Regardless of the type of beha-
more puzzling is the finding of Elton, Gruber and Busse vioral bias, poor decisions about timing, holding periods,
(2004) that substantial amounts have gone into index funds and choice of funds can combine with the substantial
charging high fees (over 2% per year) for passive holdings of variety in mutual fund fee structures to yield poor
broad indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500. performance.
Second, individual investors chase returns. Sirri and Tufano To examine the interactions and consequences of
(1998), Bergstresser and Poterba (2002), and Sapp and mutual fund choices and behavioral biases, we adopt
Tiwari (2004) find that fund flows tend to chase funds two empirical viewpoints. First, we present tests across
with high past returns. This could be fostered by Morning- individual investors. Estimates of several dimensions of
star’s practice of rating funds based on past returns behavioral bias for each individual in our sample are used
(Del Guercio and Tkac, 2008). to explain individual investor choices across index funds,
Several explanations have been offered for these two other types of mutual funds, and individual stocks. We
anomalies. Carlin (2008) explains participation in high fee also test whether behavioral biases influence associations
index funds using a model with search costs. Choi, between trading decisions and recent fund performance
Laibson and Madrian (2010) interpret their experiments because those biases could cause some investors to
on Wharton School master of business administration misuse performance information.
students and participation in high fee funds as consistent Second, we present tests across different types of
with behavioral biases. Return-chasing has been ascribed funds. We summarize individual investor holding periods
to an agency problem that induces fund managers to alter and returns across mutual funds classified by fee struc-
the riskiness of the fund to maximize investment flows ture and by the extent of several behavioral biases of each
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 3

fund’s investors. Behaviorally biased investors could clus- Mature. Third, our tests take the viewpoints of both the
ter in particular types of funds and demonstrate poor investor, who could ignore or misuse mutual funds, and
performance or very frequent trading. Furthermore, the the mutual fund industry, which could design some of its
fund industry’s offerings could include some funds products to exploit the poor decision-making skills of
designed to attract and perhaps even exploit such inves- some investors. Last, we extend the empirical behavioral
tors. A large and growing number of mutual funds offer a literature beyond the choice of individual stocks to
variety of themes and fee structures to US individual decisions about professionally managed portfolios.
investors. Even across relatively generic index funds, A summary of our results is as follows. We find that
many competing products offer a wide range of fee sophisticated investors (better informed, higher income,
structures and resultant performance (Elton, Gruber and older, and more experienced) investors make good use of
Busse (2004); Hortacsu and Syverson, 2004). It is plausi- mutual funds, holding a high proportion of funds for long
ble that different types of funds attract different clienteles periods, avoiding high expense funds, and experiencing
(Nanda, Wang, and Zheng, 2009), and some funds could relatively good performance. However, investors with
have been designed specifically with behaviorally biased strong behavioral biases or lack of attention to firm-
clienteles in mind.1 specific or macro-economic news are less likely to hold
A handful of previous papers have examined specific mutual funds or select mutual funds for the wrong
dimensions of the mutual fund choices of individual reasons. When they do buy mutual funds, they trade
investors. Barber, Odean and Zheng (2005) find that them frequently, tend to time their buys and sells badly,
investors are more sensitive to salient fees such as and prefer high expense funds and active funds rather
front-end loads, but not as sensitive to hidden manage- than index funds. We also find that biased investors are
ment fees. Christoffersen, Evans and Musto (2006) more likely to chase fund performance, casting doubt on
consider how fund managers respond to the preferences the idea that trend chasing reflects rational fund selection
of their investors. Malloy and Zhu (2004) show that decisions.
investors who reside in less affluent and less educated Evidently, these decisions are suboptimal because they
neighborhoods tend to select high expense funds. Zhu are associated with lower overall returns. For instance,
(2005) shows that busy investors are more likely to invest top-quintile narrow-framing investors have average
in funds instead of individual stocks. Huang, Wei and Yan mutual fund returns that are 2.16% lower than those in
(2007) characterize the effect of the information environ- the bottom quintile, and top-quintile disposition effect
ment on the associations between fund flows and past investors have average returns that are 0.89% lower than
performance. Bergstresser, Chalmers and Tufano (2009) those in the bottom quintile. In contrast, behavioral biases
study whether mutual fund brokers help educate inves- do not appear to affect the performance of index fund
tors and attenuate their behavioral biases, but they con- holdings.
clude that brokers do not deliver tangible benefits for the Thus, our behavioral bias and news inattentiveness
fees they earn. Ivković and Weisbenner (2009) examine proxies, though crude, demonstrate that behavioral
aggregate individual investor fund flows for tax effects. effects are at work in the mutual fund decisions of many
Our paper offers several substantial contributions. investors and take a toll on performance. Furthermore,
First, unlike earlier studies, we examine a combination the bias and inattention to news proxies are themselves
of behavioral factors, plus controls for other likely influ- correlated in interesting ways that allow us to identify
ences on portfolio selection, to reveal the interactions and study stereotypical investors. The five factors identi-
between investor decisions, the characteristics of the fied using factor analysis can explain over 75% of the
mutual funds they select, and the consequences for variance of the behavioral factors and other investor
portfolio performance. Second, because we employ characteristics. The intuitive combinations of investor
proxies for a number of dimensions of investor behavior characteristics that comprise these five factors relate to
in our tests, we are also able to study the associations mutual fund trading habits and performance in an inter-
between different investor characteristics. In particular, esting and consistent manner.
applying factor analysis to the correlation structure of our The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2
investor characteristics reveals interesting overlaps describes our explanatory variables and test specifica-
among biases and other characteristics, and it permits tions. Section 3 describes the individual investor database
us to identify and profile five investor stereotypes that we and other data sources. We present our empirical results
label Gambler, Smart, Overconfident, Narrow Framer, and in Sections 4 and 5, and we conclude in Section 6 with a
brief discussion.

1
Some evidence exists that skilled capital market participants 2. Measuring investor characteristics
outsmart individual mutual fund investors. Money market funds appear
to raise fees to exploit investors who are insensitive to fees and
performance (Christoffersen and Musto, 2002). Weak associations Our main objective is to relate mutual fund use and
between equity fund fees and performance could also reflect such performance to behavioral factors that vary across our
behavior (Gil-Bazo and Ruiz-Verdu, 2009). Corporations are aware of sample of investors. We begin by using each sample
patterns in mutual fund inflows and outflows and attempt to exploit investor’s record of common stock holdings and trading
them in timing equity issues (Frazzini and Lamont, 2008). Mutual fund
inflows are attracted to seemingly high performance assessed against
to estimate a set of variables that proxy for the behaviors
benchmarks that funds specify but which do not match fund styles evident in each investor’s common stock portfolio. Recog-
(Sensoy, 2009). nizing that behavioral factors are unlikely to be the only
4 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

determinant of mutual fund choices, we also construct Another important concept from the empirical beha-
controls for other drivers of mutual fund decisions sug- vioral finance literature is overconfidence, an investor’s
gested by the mutual fund and behavioral finance litera- propensity to trade frequently but unsuccessfully. Our
tures. We use these variables in a variety of tests across Overconfidence Dummy variable is set to one for investors
individual investors and then across types of mutual in the highest portfolio turnover quintile and lowest
funds. Detailed descriptions of behavioral factors, other performance quintile for their individual common stock
investor characteristics, and references to supporting trading.3 Because male investors typically exhibit over-
papers can be found in Appendix A. confidence, we use a male dummy as an additional proxy
for overconfidence.
2.1. Behavioral bias proxies Next, we compute a proxy for familiarity, as articu-
lated by Merton (1987) and Huberman (2001).4 Specifi-
We begin by estimating Disposition Effect and Narrow cally, the Local Bias of an investor’s common stock
Framing, two mental accounting biases that have been portfolio equals the mean distance between her home
explored extensively in the behavioral finance literature. zip code and the headquarters’ zip codes of companies in
The Disposition Effect is the propensity of an investor to her portfolio minus the mean distance to the companies’
sell winners too early and hold losers too long. As detailed headquarters in the market portfolio. Fund Level Local Bias
in Appendix A, we measure each investor’s peer group- equals the mean distance between the investor’s home
adjusted disposition effect by comparing each investor’s zip code and the headquarters of the mutual funds in her
actual propensity to realize gains versus losses with portfolio, minus the same measure aggregated across all
a peer group’s propensity to realize gains and losses. funds held by all investors in the sample.
A positive value of our disposition effect proxy indicates We measure each investor’s preference for gambling
that the investor sells a greater proportion of winners and and speculation. Following Kumar (2009), Lottery Stocks
a relatively smaller proportion of losers. Preference is the investor’s mean portfolio weight (relative
Disposition Effect could be related to tax incentives. For to the weight in the market portfolio) assigned to stocks
example, selling winners but retaining losers is particu- that have low prices, high idiosyncratic volatility, and
larly costly for high-income US individuals. In contrast, high idiosyncratic skewness.
realizing losses in December instead of other months Last, we construct two indicators of whether a parti-
could represent a sophisticated tax minimization strategy. cular investor appears to ignore potentially relevant
To distinguish disposition effect from tax loss selling, we economic news. One variable captures inattention to
construct a disposition effect times high income interac- earnings news, and the other captures inattention to
tion variable (DEnHigh Income) and a disposition effect macroeconomic news. Both measures are computed using
times no December tax loss selling interaction variable each individual’s record of individual stock trades using
(DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling). Selling winners too the formula 1 (number of investor trades around the
soon and holding losers too long is particularly costly for event)/(total number of investor trades), where ‘‘around’’
higher-income investors because they face higher mar- the event is defined as days t  1, t, and t þ1, where t is the
ginal tax rates. Similarly, a cleaner measure of disposition earnings announcement date. To compute Inattention to
effect could be isolated by identifying individuals who Earnings News, earnings announcements for each stock
appear entirely unaware of the tax consequences of their held by the individual are collected from the Institutional
trades. Therefore, both of these interaction terms are Brokers’ Estimate System, I/B/E/S. To compute Inattention
intended to isolate cleaner and severe facets of the
disposition effect.
Our second bias proxy, Narrow Framing, is the propen- (footnote continued)
sity of an investor to select investments individually, larger number of stocks with capital gains and capital losses. Thus, use of
the original measure of the Disposition Effect in cross-sectional analysis is
instead of considering the broad impact on her portfolio.
likely to induce mechanical associations with variables that are corre-
Intuitively, the time interval between two consecutive lated with portfolio size and trading frequency. Similar issues apply to
decisions reflects the decision frame, with temporally the Narrow Framing measure because the trade clustering measure used
separated decisions more likely to be framed narrowly to proxy for narrow framing is correlated with portfolio size, number of
than simultaneous decisions. Hence, investors who exe- stocks, and trading frequency. Further, there might be a mechanically
induced relation between proxies for Narrow Framing and Disposition
cute less-clustered trades are more likely to be using Effect. To minimize the potential influences of portfolio size, number of
narrower decision frames. The appendix describes how stocks, and trading frequency, we compute peer group-adjusted proxies
each investor’s trade clustering measure is peer-group of both Disposition Effect and Narrow Framing biases. Our stock-level and
adjusted for portfolio size, number of stocks, and trading fund-level local bias measures are adjusted with the means for the
market. This does not affect estimation because the same constant is
frequency. A low trade clustering measure indicates an
applied to all investors, but this allows us to think about an investor’s
investor who is more likely to use a narrow viewpoint in portfolio characteristics relative to a typical investor.
making investment choices.2 3
We measure the performance and turnover from the stock hold-
ings of the investors for the entire period. We also construct an
alternative measure for performance and turnover using the first year
2
Odean (1998) computes Disposition Effect as the proportion of of investors’ record. The results are very similar.
4
losses realized minus the proportion of gains realized and notes that this A related concept is home bias, the tendency for some investors to
measure is sensitive to portfolio size and trading frequency. For under-diversify their portfolios internationally. See Bailey, Kumar and
example, proportions are likely to be smaller for investors who hold Ng (2008) for evidence that home bias could have its origins in
larger portfolios and trade frequently because those portfolios contain a behavioral biases.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 5

to Macroeconomic News, we collect dates of federal funds includes Age, Marital Status (a dummy set to one for married
target rate (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update/) investors), Family Size (number of family members in the
changes, Non-Farm Payroll Reports (www.bls.gov/bls/archi household), Professional Dummy (a dummy set to zero for
ved_sched.htm), and producer price index releases (www. the investor in a blue collar profession, one otherwise), and
bls.gov/ppi/ppirel.pdf).5 Retired Dummy (a dummy set to one if the investor is retired).
The measures we construct are only proxies for beha- These factors could proxy for forces, such as the availability of
vioral biases. They do not correspond exactly to the time to study investments (Zhu, 2005) that can affect
definitions of decision-making biases in the psychology portfolio selection.
literature. Nonetheless, at the very least, these measures Other control variables are more directly related to
are indicators of suboptimal stock investment decisions. each individual’s investment activities. Stock portfolio
They reflect portfolio management mistakes and allow us diversification is measured as the negative of Normalized
to measure associations between an individual’s propen- Portfolio Variance (that is, the variance of the portfolio of
sity to make such mistakes, his use of mutual funds, and individual domestic securities divided by the average
the consequences for portfolio performance. variance of the individual common stocks in the portfo-
Furthermore, there are other ways to think about the lio). Investors who demonstrate awareness of the value of
behavioral bias proxies and our results. What we call diversification in their portfolio of individual stocks are
‘‘behavioral bias proxies’’ could simply represent each likely to extend that insight into their choice of mutual
investor’s ‘‘financial literacy.’’ Put another way, it is costly funds. Income (the total annual household income) and
to continually acquire the skills and information needed Portfolio Size (the sample-period natural log of the average
to make successful investment decisions. While basic market capitalization of the investor’s common stock
notions of portfolio management suggest that a simple portfolio) identify investors who are more likely to under-
buy-and-hold use of index funds is a sensible way to stand the basic precepts of portfolio management and,
avoid incurring such costs, ‘‘bounded rationality’’ could therefore, tend to select index funds or other low expense
lead some investors to other decisions. For example, an funds and hold them for relatively long periods. Invest-
investor could display narrow framing bias if he elects not ment Experience (years since the brokerage account was
to incur the cost of thinking more carefully about invest- open) and a dummy for residence in a Financial Center
ment decisions. could indicate more experienced investors with easier
Aside from recognizing that each investor could access to information and opinions about investments
rationally strike a different balance between the costs (Christoffersen and Sarkissian, 2009). The Options Dummy
and benefits of becoming a better investor, we must also equals one if the investor executes at least one option
consider preferences. While a preference for lottery-type trade during the sample period. The Short Sale Dummy
stocks sounds suboptimal and is associated with under- equals one if the investor executes at least one short trade
performance, it could simply represent skewness prefer- during the sample period.6 Stock Portfolio Performance (the
ence in the investor’s objective function. intercept from the market model time series regression
Finally, some behavioral bias proxies could represent with the monthly common stock portfolio return as
frictions in the investment process. For example, our dependent variable) could identify particularly skillful,
overconfidence proxy identifies investors whose indivi- successful investors. Success could originate from a vari-
dual stock portfolio is high on turnover and low on return. ety of strategies, ranging from selecting individual stocks
While this could represent investors who are irrationally to timing the market.7 No December Tax Loss Selling equals
aggressive, it could also reflect a combination of small one minus the ratio of realized losses in December to both
portfolio size, commission costs, and other frictions. With realized and paper losses in December. Holds Tax-Deferred
a portfolio of only a few stocks, rebalancing by trading Account is a dummy variable equal to one if the investor
just one stock yields high turnover, and even overconfi- holds an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or Keogh
dence if performance is poor. If such small investors account at the brokerage. Stock Portfolio Beta, Size, Value,
recognize that mutual funds are particularly advanta- and Momentum Factor loadings are computed with market
geous, this could even induce a correlation between or four-factor regressions using monthly returns.
overconfidence and the propensity to use mutual funds.
Our inclusion of portfolio size as a control variable in our
3. Data and summary statistics
regressions might not completely correct for such effects.

Having outlined the behavioral proxies and control


2.2. Control variables
variables that support our study of multiple dimensions of
investors’ mutual fund decisions, we now describe the
Though we focus on the behavioral forces for which
data sets needed for the empirical tests.
Section 2.1 describes proxies, we also control for other factors
that are likely to influence mutual fund choices. Specifically,
we consider a set of demographic characteristics, which 6
Options and short sale dummies could proxy for skill and experi-
ence, or they could reflect a tendency to speculate. See Campbell (2006)
on the correlation between investor sophistication and investment
5
Subsequent results shed light on whether inattention is a bias or mistakes.
7
part of a sensible passive strategy. For example, Barber and Odean For example, an informed investor could optimally focus on only a
(2008) find no evidence that trading based on other measures of news few stocks (Goetzmann and Kumar, 2008; Ivković, Sialm, and
arrival is beneficial. Weisbenner, 2008; Van Nieuwerburgh and Veldkamp, 2010).
6 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Table 1
Summary statistics on mutual fund investments of individual investors.
This table summarizes the stock and mutual fund investment activities of our sample individual investors. The individual investor data are from a large
US discount brokerage house for the 1991–1996 period. The median numbers are indicated in parentheses. We identify a total of 136 index funds that
were available to our sample of investors during this time period. The Center for Research in Securities Prices (CRSP) universe of individual stocks
available during this time period is about 12,000.

Statistic Equity funds Index funds Stocks

Number of assets 1,492 33 10,877

Sample-period trades
Number of investors with trades 32,122 5,594 62,387
Number of buys 405,376 (67.03%) 15,354 (73.66%) 1,015,735 (54.76%)
Number of sells 199,365 (32.97%) 5,491 (26.34%) 839,041 (45.24%)
Mean (median) number of trades 19 (6) 4 (2) 30 (11)
Mean buy trade quantity 2,787 470 634
Mean buy trade size $9,929 $6,879 $11,251
Mean sell trade quantity 4,226 964 694
Mean sell trade size $15,744 $13,244 $13,684

End-of-month positions
Number of investors with positions 29,381 4,432 59,387
Mean (median) portfolio size $39,986 ($12,827) $13,659 ($5,200) $35,629 ($13,869)
Mean (median) number of assets 3.51 (2) 1.37 (1) 3.89 (3)

3.1. Data sources 3.2. Summary statistics

Our primary database is a 6-year (January 1991– Table 1 provides summary statistics on individual inves-
November 1996) panel of trades and monthly portfolio tor trading and holding of mutual funds and, for compar-
positions of individual investors with accounts at a major ison, individual stocks. Sample investors traded or held
US discount broker.8 The database has been used by a 1,492 different equity mutual funds (of which 33 are index
number of other authors including Odean (1998) and funds) and close to 11,000 stocks. A total of 32,122 investors
Barber and Odean (2000). The database indicates the have executed at least one mutual fund trade and 29,381
end-of-month portfolios of all investors, records all trades have held equity mutual funds at least once. Among these,
by these investors, and supplies demographic information only 5,594 have executed at least one index fund trade and
(measured as of June 1997 and supplied to the brokerage 4,432 have held index funds at least once. The balance of
house by Infobase) such as age, occupation, income, self- buys and sells suggests that, in contrast to individual stocks,
reported net worth, gender, marital status, and zip code.9 mutual fund investors tend to buy and hold funds, rather
We obtain the zip codes of the headquarters of a subset of than buying and selling more actively as with individual
mutual fund families from Professors Josh Coval and stocks. Trade sizes and quantities are typically modest.
Zoran Ivković. We supplement this data set with addi- The mean (median) number of equity funds in a typical
tional information from the Lionshare database, 1996 mutual fund portfolio is 3.51 (2.0) and number of trades
Nelson’s Directory of Investment Managers, and Google executed is 19 (6.0). The mean (median) number of index
searches. funds held is 1.37 (1.0) and number of trades executed is 4
We also obtain data from several standard sources. For (2.0). In contrast, a typical investor holds 3.89 individual
each common stock and mutual fund in our sample, we stocks (median is three) and executes 30 (median is 11) stock
obtain monthly returns data from the Center for Research trades.
in Security Prices (CRSP). We also use the CRSP mutual Beyond what is reported in the table, the proportion of
fund database to obtain information on fund character- mutual funds in a typical equity portfolio that includes
istics such as the expense ratio and front-end load. Finally, mutual funds is 23.78%.11 This proportion increases
we obtain the monthly time series of the three Fama- slightly with equity portfolio size to about 26% in the
French factors and the momentum factor from Professor highest size decile portfolios. The proportion of index
Kenneth French’s data library.10 funds in the aggregate mutual fund portfolio is low,
varying between 5.30% and 8.39%, with a mean of only
6.54%. Nevertheless, among the investors who hold index
8
funds, the proportion of index funds in the mutual fund
The brokerage firm has not made more recent data available. The
portfolio is about 38%. Furthermore, there is much
time period covered largely excludes such phenomena as exchange-traded
funds (ETFs) and high-frequency online day trading by individuals.
9
Each demographic variable is available for only a subset of the
11
investors in the sample. For instance, both age and income are available If we include all investors, not just those who hold mutual funds,
for only 31,260 investors. Consequently, the number of observations in this proportion is only 13.49%. Consistent with the common industry
each cross-sectional regression depends upon the subset of demographic trend, it has grown steadily from 7.63% in January 1991 to 16.58% in
variables included. November 1996. About 10% of all investors hold only mutual funds in
10
The data library is available at http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/ their equity portfolios while about 17% hold more than three-fourths in
pages/faculty/ken.french/. equity mutual funds.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 7

Computations are based on 21,542 individuals who have traded individual stocks during the sample period. Any correlation coefficient with t-statistic greater than or equal to 2.576 is presented in bold type
evidence that our sample of brokerage records represents
typical US individual investors.12

DEnNo December DEn High

 0.009

 0.010
Income
In addition to detailed descriptions of each investor

0.481
0.121

0.031
0.023

0.444
0.016

0.012
0.006

0.009

1.000
characteristic variable, the appendix includes univariate
summary statistics on those variables.13 Features of the
data are noteworthy. For example, some of the behavioral
bias proxies are skewed to the left (Disposition Effect,

 0.008

 0.004
Narrow Framing) and others are skewed right with large

Selling

0.922
0.200

0.037
0.028

0.444
0.001
0.006
0.007

0.002
1.000
positive outliers (Lottery Stock Preference). The median age
of our sample investors is about 50 years, median income
is $87,500 per year, and median family size is two. Almost

Inattention
90% of the accounts are held by males. The average

Fund-Level

 0.012

 0.013
 0.002
 0.002
 0.001
(median) market risk-adjusted return on an investor’s

to indicate strong statistical significance. All series are winsorized at the 1% level, and results throughout the paper are very similar for winsorizing at the 5% level.

0.043

0.012
0.004
0.005

0.004

1.000
0.002
portfolio of individual stocks is an unflattering  0.378%
(  0.278%) per month and ranges from a minimum of
11.474% to a maximum of 6.437%. The median indivi-

Fund-Level
Local Bias
dual stock portfolio beta is a surprisingly high 1.157.

 0.024
 0.011

 0.013

 0.013
 0.006

 0.007

 0.004
 0.010
0.009

0.005

0.003

1.000
4. Empirical results

We begin by examining our behavioral bias and news

Macroeconomic
inattention proxies in more detail and, in particular, look for

Inattention to
intuition from the associations among these proxies and

 0.011
 0.010
 0.010

 0.008

 0.060

 0.008
 0.009
with other investor characteristics. Next, we study mutual

0.021

0.043
0.002

1.000

0.003
News
fund participation and fund selection decisions across our
sample investors. We then arrange information about these
decisions by type of fund, not by individuals. In these tests, Inattention
we examine the fees and expenses of funds chosen by the toEarnings

 0.065

 0.060
 0.004

 0.001
investors in our sample and whether there are associations
0.038
0.082

0.028
0.023
0.015

0.011

1.000

0.005
News

with turnover, performance, and behavioral biases. We also


investigate whether investors’ trend-chasing behavior is
Preference

influenced by their behavioral biases. Further tests sum-


 0.041

 0.065

 0.013
 0.002
Lottery

marize the impact of individual investors’ mutual fund


Stocks

0.044
0.081
0.062

 0.008 0.021

0.037
0.031
0.006

investment decisions on portfolio performance. Last, we 1.000


report the results of various robustness checks.
 0.039

 0.024
 0.041

 0.002
0.011
1.000
0.006
0.007

0.010

0.007
0.009
Local
Bias

4.1. Associations between investor characteristics


 0.004
Dummy

The recent behavioral finance literature has proposed a


0.019
0.012

0.016
0.008

1.000
0.010
0.006

0.002

0.009
0.004
0.006
Male

number of behavioral factors. However, previous papers


typically focus on only one behavioral factor. One of our
Overconfidence

contributions is to examine different behavioral factors


jointly and to measure how they relate to each other and
 0.039

 0.012
 0.010

 0.007
Dummy

to other investor characteristics.


0.080

0.019

0.062
0.013

0.015
1.000

0.001
0.006

Table 2 presents correlations among the behavioral


biases that we measure. A number of statistically signifi-
cant associations are evident. Disposition Effect, Narrow
Framing

 0.011
 0.010
Narrow
Cross-correlations of the behavioral measures.

0.230

0.080

0.081
0.082

0.200
0.121
0.012

Framing, Lottery Stocks Preference, and Inattention to Earn-


1.000

0.007

0.005

ings News often appear in the same individuals. These


individuals time their trades poorly, make decisions in
Disposition

isolation, buy speculative stocks, and ignore firm-specific


 0.011

 0.006
0.230

0.044
0.038

0.922
0.481
0.013
1.000

0.008
0.006

0.004
Effect

12
Ivković et al. (2005) find the distribution of stock holding periods
Lottery Stocks Preference

DEnNo December Selling


Macroeconomic News
Overconfidence Dummy

Inattention to Earnings

is very similar across our sample and the general population reflected in
Fund-Level Inattention
Fund-Level Local Bias

tax returns. Zhu (2005), Goetzmann and Kumar (2008), and Ivković,
Disposition Effect

Sialm and Weisbenner (2008) confirm that our sample closely resembles
DEnHigh Income
Narrow Framing

the general US individual investor population. Bailey, Kumar and Ng


Inattention to
Male Dummy

(2008) show similarities with the Census Bureau’s 1995 Survey of


Local Bias
Measure

Income and Program Participation and the Federal Reserve Board’s


News
Table 2

Survey of Consumer Finances of 1992 and 1995.


13
These statistics are computed prior to 1% winsorizing which is
employed throughout the balance of the paper.
8 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

information. Although uncorrelated with Disposition Effect, positive loadings on Disposition Effect, Narrow Framing,
Overconfidence Dummy is significantly positively corre- and, especially, Lottery Stocks Preference. This suggests
lated with Narrow Framing, Male Dummy, and Lottery that this factor reflects investors with substantial beha-
Stocks Preference, suggesting a class of particularly aggres- vioral biases, particularly a taste for risky stocks. We label
sive investors prone to speculation. Some correlations for this factor Gambler. Negative loadings on Age, Income,
Local Bias suggest a cautious investor type (negative Professional Dummy, Retired Dummy, Investment Experi-
correlation with Overconfidence Dummy and Lottery Stocks ence, and Portfolio Size suggest that Gambler is relatively
Preference). Inattention to Macroeconomic News is nega- young, poor, unsophisticated, and inexperienced. The
tively correlated with Inattention to Earnings News, sug- negative loading on Stock Portfolio Diversification indicates
gesting that some individuals invest on a top down basis a tendency to plunge rather than spread risk. This is
and look at broad news, while ignoring firm-specific news. consistent with models (Mitton and Vorkink, 2007;
To save space, we do not report correlations among the Barberis and Huang, 2008) in which some investors take
other investor characteristics or between the behavioral undiversified positions in skewed securities that appeal to
biases and the other characteristics (they are available their preferences. The loadings on risk factors indicate an
upon request). We summarize these correlations as fol- appetite for high beta stocks, small stocks, value stocks,
lows. Many of the other investor characteristics are related and trading against momentum. The negative loading on
in sensible ways. For example, Age is positively correlated Stock Portfolio Performance suggests that Gambler typi-
with Marital Status, Retired Dummy, Investment Experience, cally suffers poor performance. This is consistent with the
and Stock Portfolio Size. Income is positively correlated empirical finding in Kumar (2009) that investors with
with Family Size, Professional Dummy, and Financial Center high Lottery Stocks Preference often select small value
Dummy. The use of options or short sales is correlated with stocks that do not perform well.
Investment Experience and Financial Center Dummy. Finan- The second factor explains 18.1% of the variation of the
cial sophistication is evident in correlations among Invest- investor characteristics. In contrast to Gambler, this factor
ment Experience, Options Dummy, Short Sale Dummy, represents investors who seem to do everything right and
Stock Portfolio Diversification, and tax minimization. earn good returns from individual stocks as a consequence.
A number of correlations are unexpected, such as no We label this factor Smart. Smart displays negative loadings
association between Investment Experience and Stock Port- on several behavioral biases and has high income, profes-
folio Performance and negative association between Stock sional status, and long investment experience. Smart’s
Portfolio Diversification and Stock Portfolio Performance. large, diverse individual stock portfolio has relatively mod-
High loadings of individual stock portfolios on market, est loadings on market, size, value, and momentum risks
size, value, and momentum factors are associated with and reflects the value of December tax loss selling. Among
poor performance. the first five factors, Smart is the most likely to maintain a
The (unreported) correlations between the behavioral tax-deferred brokerage account. This combination of good
bias variables and the other investor characteristics begin characteristics yields relatively high individual stock port-
to suggest links between investment decision-making folio performance. Smart is likely to use short-selling,
biases and more fundamental individual characteristics. implying sophistication in investment tactics.
For example, it is sensible that maturity and intelligence The third factor explains 15.3% of the investor character-
(represented by Age, Income, Professional Dummy, and istics and puts cumulative variance explained above 55%.
Retired Dummy) are typically uncorrelated or even nega- We label this factor Overconfident given the large positive
tively correlated with biases. Narrow Framing is more likely loading on Overconfidence Dummy (which, by construction,
for young, relatively low-income investors, which is con- is consistent with the large negative loading on Stock
sistent with the findings of Kumar and Lim (2008). Lottery Portfolio Performance). Overconfident is typically male,
stock preference is associated with growth and value inclined to Lottery Stocks Preference, single, not retired, and
stocks [as proxied by SMB (small minus big) and HML inexperienced with investments. An association between
(high minus low) factor exposures] and poor performance. male gender and overconfident investing mirrors the find-
Among the biases, only Local Bias is positively correlated ings of Barber and Odean (2001). Overconfident’s individual
with Stock Portfolio Performance, suggesting that familiarity stock portfolio is poorly diversified and has a large loading
bias is not necessarily detrimental. As we would predict on market risk. The use of options is associated with this
given its definition, Narrow Framing tends to be negatively ineffective decision maker, unlike the use of short sales
correlated with Stock Portfolio Diversification. which is associated with the successful Smart investor.
While it is difficult to comprehensively grasp hundreds The fourth factor explains 12.3% of the investor char-
of individual cross correlations, some hint at effective acteristics. We label it Narrow Framer given its particu-
investing, some suggest cautious behavior, and many imply larly large loading on that bias. With significant positive
that poor decision making leads to inferior stock portfolio loadings on three biases, youth, and low income, poor
performance. To highlight these associations in a more Stock Portfolio Diversification, and weak Stock Portfolio
formal and dramatic manner, Table 3 presents the results Performance, Narrow Framer is reminiscent of the Gambler
of factor analysis applied to the observed characteristics of and Overconfident stereotypes. Similar to the findings in
the 21,542 investors in the database who traded individual Kumar and Lim (2008), Narrow Framer exhibits stronger
stocks during the sample period. disposition effect and hold less diversified portfolios.
The first factor explains 21.8% of the variance of Narrow Framer does seem aware of tax issues, given the
the investor characteristics. This factor has substantial negative loading on No December Tax Loss Selling, perhaps
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 9

Table 3
Factor analysis for the behavioral measures and other investor characteristics.
Computations are based on 21,542 individuals who have traded individual stocks during the sample period. The ‘‘varimax’’ method is run for ten
factors but only the first five are reported given variance explained.

Factor

Variable Gambler Smart Overconfident Narrow Framer Mature

Factor Characteristics
Eigenvalue 2.288 1.894 1.607 1.286 1.071
Variance explained 0.218 0.181 0.153 0.123 0.102
Cumulative variance explained 0.218 0.399 0.552 0.675 0.777

Factor Loadings
Disposition Effect 0.189  0.213 0.055 0.253  0.302
Narrow Framing 0.216  0.101 0.095 0.588  0.221
Overconfidence Dummy 0.055  0.058 0.472 0.090  0.232
Male Dummy 0.021 0.004 0.202  0.001  0.013
Local Bias  0.044  0.206  0.02 0.005  0.020
Lottery Stocks Preference 0.563  0.202 0.143  0.011  0.243
Inattention to Earnings News  0.058  0.011 0.090 0.196  0.013
Inattention to Macroeconomic News 0.029  0.007  0.052  0.011  0.008
Fund-Level Local Bias  0.020  0.033 0.000 0.032  0.016
Fund-Level Inattention 0.005  0.017 0.001  0.004  0.010
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling 0.023  0.028 0.028 0.015  0.015
DEnHigh Income 0.028  0.027 0.037 0.022  0.019
Age  0.335 0.067  0.026  0.202 0.458
Income  0.404 0.020  0.005  0.167  0.126
High Income  0.027 0.196  0.010 0.004  0.085
Marital Status  0.032  0.033  0.255  0.001 0.054
Family Size 0.008  0.04  0.023  0.001  0.104
Professional Dummy  0.155 0.332  0.002 0.000  0.589
Retired Dummy  0.342 0.055  0.331 0.008 0.890
Investment Experience  0.333 0.509  0.221  0.015 0.292
Financial Center Dummy 0.045 0.005 0.032  0.007  0.059
Options Dummy 0.066 0.094 0.301 0.010  0.029
Short Sale Dummy 0.014 0.332 0.014 0.012  0.011
Stock Portfolio Diversification.  0.323 0.723  0.333  0.41 0.403
Stock Portfolio Size  0.202 0.407 0.080  0.303 0.552
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.454 0.354  0.828  0.236  0.020
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.006  0.498 0.088  0.398  0.311
Holds Tax-Deferred Account  0.004 0.202 0.027  0.005  0.311
Market Factor Exposure 0.471 0.091 0.556 0.220  0.046
SMB Factor Exposure 0.806 0.125 0.150  0.023  0.044
HML Factor Exposure 0.594 0.121 0.213  0.110 0.059
UMD Factor Exposure  0.555 0.087  0.045  0.072 0.010

because he or she carefully accounts for each stock, though down upon approaching retirement or are less valuable to
separately. relatively low income investors. Many of the characteristics
The fifth factor explains 10.2% of variance and, given that of Mature parallel what Korniotis and Kumar (2011) report
it is the last factor with eigenvalue above one and puts for older investors. To reconcile generally unbiased decision
cumulative variance explained above 75%, it is the final making with mediocre performance, they suggest that aging
factor for which we offer detailed interpretation.14 Given is associated with deterioration in cognitive skills
that this factor has a high loading on Age, Retired Dummy, We recognize that the labels we have placed on the
and Investment Experience, a negative loading on behavioral first five factors are at best speculative. Nonetheless, the
biases, a large, well-diversified portfolio, and an under- clusters of characteristics they identify across tens of
standing of tax-timing, we label it Mature. Unlike Smart, thousands of individual US investors are intuitive. They
Mature’s individual stock portfolio performance is not validate the behavioral biases and other investor char-
extraordinary, but it successfully avoids the cost of obvious acteristics that the empirical behavioral finance literature
biases and mistakes. Caution is also reflected in Mature’s has developed. We employ these biases, and the factors
relatively modest loadings on market, size, value, and we have extracted, in subsequent tests to understand how
momentum risks. Mature is less likely to hold a tax-deferred behavioral biases affect the use of equity mutual funds.
account, perhaps because such accounts must be drawn
4.2. Participation in open end mutual funds: logit
regression estimates
14
Given that we use factor analysis instead of principal compo-
nents, a cutoff of one for the eigenvalue is conservative. Information on Our next set of tests examines investors’ mutual fund
the sixth through tenth factors is unreported but available on request. participation decisions. We estimate logit regressions in
10 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

which the dependent variable is the fund participation decision to participate in mutual funds generally. The
dummy, which equals one for an investor who invests in evidence on behavioral biases and index funds in Specifi-
mutual funds at least once during the sample period. The cations 3 and 4 largely echoes what we find for mutual
main independent variables of interest are the behavioral funds generally in Specifications 1 and 2. Investors who
bias proxies, inattention measures, and tax-related inter- score high on Disposition Effect, Narrow Framing, Inatten-
actives. The logit regression estimates are presented in tion to Earnings News, and Disposition Effect interacted with
the first four specifications of Table 4. The independent No December Tax Loss Selling are more likely to avoid index
variables are standardized so that coefficient estimates funds. Once again, the importance of the propensity to
can be easily compared within and across specifications.15 trade risky individual stocks is evident: The strong aver-
In specifications 1 and 2 of Table 4, we explain the sion to mutual funds for those with Lottery Stocks Pre-
mutual fund participation dummy with behavioral bias ference is heightened for index funds. The association
proxies. Specification 2 also includes the control variables between overconfidence and mutual fund investment
previously described. Consistent with the presence of disappears, perhaps indicating that overconfident inves-
behavioral biases, negative slopes on Disposition Effect, tors confine themselves to actively managed funds.
Narrow Framing, Lottery Stocks Preference, and Inattention Again, these findings are robust to the inclusion of the
to Earnings News indicate that investors who score high on control variables. The estimates of the coefficients on the
these characteristics are less likely to invest in equity control variables also suggest that older investors, higher
mutual funds. The negative slope on the interactive term income investors, those with smaller stock portfolios,
for Disposition Effect and No December Tax Loss Selling those who appear to value diversification, those who
indicates that investors prone to both the Disposition are cognizant of tax issues, those who do not live near
Effect and no attention to tax issues are even less likely a financial center, and those who avoid individual stocks
to invest in equity mutual funds. Somewhat surprisingly, with high loadings on market and size risks are
we find that overconfident investors (that is, those who more likely to value index funds. Thus, the clientele
trade stocks more frequently, yet earn lower returns) are of index funds differs somewhat from the clientele of
more likely to invest in mutual funds. This could reflect other mutual funds. However, behavioral biases appear to
overconfidence in their ability to identify good funds.16 have a significant influence on the use of equity mutual
In economic terms, the logit regression estimates indi- funds regardless of type. In the following sections, we
cate that the propensity to invest in mutual funds declines conduct additional tests to refine and extend these
by 3.15% (0.126  25), 3.90%, 4.67%, and 0.95% when the findings.
level of disposition effect, narrow framing, lottery prefer-
ence, or inattention to earnings news increases by one 4.3. Extent of fund investment: cross-sectional
standard deviation, respectively.17 The absolute size of slope regression estimates
coefficients is the largest for Lottery Stocks Preference,
suggesting that the propensity to pick individual stocks is In our third set of tests, we estimate cross-sectional
most likely to divert investment away from sensible strate- regressions with portfolio weights in mutual funds as
gies involving mutual funds. The finding for Lottery Stocks dependent variables. Similar to the participation regres-
Preference is particularly significant as, unlike some of our sions, the independent variables are the behavioral factors
other factors as discussed in Section 2.1, it is hard to that we focus on, plus control variables. One concern in
characterize this factor as anything other than behavioral such regressions is that the cross-correlation of individuals
or, at best, skewness preference. in decision making could inflate the statistical significance
These findings are robust to the inclusion of the of our regressions. For instance, some segment of investors
control variables. Moreover, the estimated slopes on the could select very similar portfolios of funds and have
control variables are intuitive. We find that investors who correlated preferences for active, small cap, and industry
earn higher income, work as a professional, do not live funds. As a result, their fund choices could be correlated.
near a financial center, are sufficiently sophisticated to We take the following steps to address such concerns
use options, or who appear to value diversification in their for each of our cross-sectional regressions. First, clustered
stock portfolios are also more likely to invest in mutual standard errors are intended to correct for correlation of
funds. Those who ignore tax loss selling of their individual residuals within each cluster (Petersen, 2009), though this
stocks or load high on market, size, or value risks are less method assumes independence across groups.18
likely to hold equity mutual funds. We do not know the exact nature of any cross-
Specifications 3 and 4 repeat the tests described pre- sectional dependence of returns residuals. Therefore, we
viously but for the index fund participation dummy, which try two different forms of clustered standard errors, by
is set to one only for those investors who invest in index zip code (treating each investor within a zip code as
funds at least once during the sample period. The decision one observation) and by peer group (same quintile of
to participate in index funds could be different from the portfolio size, trading frequency, and number of stocks).19

15 18
To alleviate concerns about multi-collinearity, we check the Kumar (2009) uses a similar method to account for potential
variance inflation factor (VIF) for each explanatory variable. cross-sectional dependence in performance across investors.
16 19
Subsequent tests address this potentially puzzling finding. The results with peer group-clustered standard errors are very
17
Following Wooldridge (2003), we use a factor of 25% to interpret similar. For brevity, we report the results with zip code-clustered standard
the logit regression results. errors only.
Table 4
Investor characteristics and mutual fund participation decisions and stock versus funds allocation
The first four specifications in the table are logit regressions. In Specifications 1 and 2, the dependent variable is one for investors who hold or trade mutual funds at least once during the sample period. In
Specifications 3 and 4, the dependent variable in the logit regression is one for investors who hold or trade index funds at least once during the sample period. Specifications 5 and 6 are cross-sectional
regression estimates in which the proportion of mutual funds in the equity portfolio is the dependent variable. In Specification 5, the dependent variable is the mean weight of mutual funds in the total equity
(stocks and mutual funds) portfolio. In Specification 6, the dependent variable is the mean weight of index funds only. The dependent variable is multiplied by one hundred. Independent variables are defined in
Appendix A, and a constant term is included. They are standardized so coefficients can be compared within or across specifications. There is one observation per investor. An intercept is included but not
reported. Robust zip code clustered standard errors are used to obtain the t-statistics. The statistically significant coefficient estimates are indicated in bold font. The individual investor data are from a large US
discount brokerage house for the 1991–1996 period.

Mutual fund participation dummy (LOGIT) Mutual fund portfolio weight

All mutual funds Index funds only Mutual fund weight Index fund weight

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27


Independent Variable Coefficient z-value Coefficient z-value Coefficient z-value Coefficient z-value Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Behavioral Bias Proxies


Disposition Effect  0.126  3.37  0.092  2.78  0.106  3.12  0.096  2.67  1.081  3.11  0.569  1.77
Narrow Framing  0.156  5.91  0.106  4.39  0.104  4.54  0.092  3.67  1.936  7.95  1.122  3.36
Overconfidence Dummy 0.057 2.19 0.060 3.30  0.005  0.63  0.004  0.62 0.790 3.67  0.800  2.22
Male Dummy 0.017 1.04  0.017  0.52  0.032  1.38  0.016  1.11 0.288 1.35  0.311  0.74
Local Bias  0.014  1.16  0.014  1.31  0.013  0.41  0.014  0.33  0.242  1.01  0.172  1.13
Lottery Stocks Preference  0.187  8.91  0.170  6.29  0.239  10.14  0.230  9.10  1.319  5.35  0.911  3.04
Inattention to Earnings News  0.038  2.17  0.044  2.11  0.047  2.49  0.057  2.11  0.580  2.30  0.690  2.55
Inattention to Macroeconomic News  0.019  1.18  0.013  1.09  0.014  1.14  0.013  1.03  0.452  1.78  0.206  1.42
DEnHigh Income  0.021  1.73  0.018  1.68  0.014  1.42  0.013  1.21  0.401  1.60  0.388  1.66
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling  0.091  2.98  0.081  2.11  0.074  3.14  0.069  2.84  0.327  3.10  0.430  2.74

Control Variables
Age 0.022 1.19 0.186 4.01 0.488 1.60 1.355 3.25
Income 0.035 2.26 0.046 1.77 0.767 2.60 0.838 2.18
High Income Dummy 0.050 2.90 0.084 3.01 0.588 2.11 0.438 2.18
Marital Status 0.006 1.44 0.021 1.30 0.727 2.01  0.101  0.43
Family Size 0.024 0.70 0.003 0.31  0.208  0.70  0.055  0.22
Professional Dummy 0.032 1.99 0.030 1.20 0.454 1.86  0.200  1.11
Retired Dummy  0.009  0.22 0.028 1.55  0.071  0.41 1.011 2.91
Investment Experience 0.029 1.51 0.028 1.40 0.122 0.40 0.533 3.01
Financial Center Dummy  0.084  3.98  0.067  2.11  1.034  3.44  0.960  3.11
Options Dummy 0.066 3.01 0.016 1.11 0.101 1.53  0.188  0.76
Short Sale Dummy 0.033 1.17 0.025 1.55 0.717 2.01  0.142  0.61
Stock Portfolio Diversification 0.158 6.80 0.273 7.16 0.940 3.11 0.767 3.30
Stock Portfolio Size  0.022  0.98  0.160  2.11  1.399  10.02  0.594  2.55
Stock Portfolio Performance 0.035 1.70 0.020 1.40 0.105 0.36  0.409  2.21
No Dec Tax Loss Selling  0.047  2.52  0.036  1.95  1.013  2.06  1.322  3.44
Holds Tax-Deferred Account 0.135 9.08 0.105 7.11 2.452 7.46 0.650 2.29
Market Factor Exposure  0.041  2.60  0.031  3.01  0.980  2.93  0.148  1.70
SMB Factor Exposure  0.168  5.91  0.055  4.53  0.937  3.72  0.242  1.77
HML Factor Exposure  0.038  2.27  0.009  1.20  0.392  2.93  0.375  2.19
UMD Factor Exposure  0.017  1.68  0.010  2.09  0.462  2.09  0.400  2.13

Pseudo R2 0.038 0.092 0.027 0.074 0.104 0.126


Number of Observations 22,984 21,542 22,984 21,542 21,542 21,542

11
12 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Second, we construct risk-adjusted returns to remove the choosing mutual funds with higher front end loads.
market-wide movement in returns that is common to all Specification 3 shows that individuals who are overconfi-
investors. dent, male, have lottery stocks preference, display inat-
Specifications 5 and 6 of Table 4 present the regression tention to earnings news, and have positive loading on
estimates. In Specification 5, the dependent variable is the measures of particularly severe disposition effect (Dispo-
mean weight assigned to mutual funds in an investor’s sition EffectnHigh Income and Disposition EffectnNo Decem-
equity portfolio. The results parallel the findings from the ber Tax Loss Selling) tend to invest in funds with higher
participation regressions reported in Table 3. Individuals turnover.
who score high on Disposition Effect, Narrow Framing, If we assume that funds with higher expense ratios,
Lottery Stocks Preference, Inattention to Earnings News, or higher front-end loads, and high levels of turnover are
interaction between Disposition Effect and No December Tax poor choices, our evidence indicates that investors who
Loss Selling typically put a smaller fraction of their portfo- demonstrate poor decision making with individual stocks
lio in mutual funds, while overconfident investors typi- also appear to make poor decisions about mutual funds.
cally allocate a larger proportion of their equity portfolio The slope coefficients on behavioral factors in Specifica-
to mutual funds. In economic terms, a one standard tion 2 are particularly large, suggesting that behavioral
deviation increase in narrow framing propensity is asso- biases are important in driving investors into high front
ciated with a 1.94% lower allocation to mutual funds. The end load funds. The slope coefficients on the control
estimates of other statistically significant behavioral bias variables indicate that younger, poorer, less experienced,
proxies are also economically significant. The estimates for and less tax-savvy investors are more likely to elect these
the coefficients on the control variables show that inves- apparently poor choices.
tors who have higher income, are married, do not live near
a financial center, understand short selling and diversifi- 4.5. A closer look at fund-level local bias and inattention
cation, have relatively small stock portfolios, understand
tax issues, and have relatively low loadings on risk factors Why do some investors go against common wisdom
in their stock portfolios typically hold a higher proportion and hold high front-end load funds? One possibility is
in mutual funds. Thus, similar forces drive the decision to that they are unaware of the load.20 Alternatively, some
participate in mutual funds and the extent of that investors could be more willing to pay a high load for
participation. funds they are familiar with. In particular, they could have
In Specification 6, the dependent variable is the mean more awareness of funds headquartered in their geo-
weight assigned to index funds. The cross-sectional graphic area, perhaps due to localized marketing efforts.21
regression results with index fund weight reinforce the As a result, they are willing to pay high fees for such
findings from the index fund participation regressions. funds. To investigate this thesis, we test whether inves-
Investors with stronger behavioral biases typically allo- tors with high Fund-Level Local Bias are more likely to hold
cate a smaller proportion of their equity portfolio to index funds with high fees and expenses. Having employed
funds, although the effect of overconfidence flips between proxies for local bias and inattention to news based on
Specifications 5 and 6. Even though overconfident inves- trading of individual stocks, we also investigate whether
tors allocate a slightly larger weight to mutual funds, they some investors concentrate their equity mutual fund
allocate a smaller proportion of their equity portfolio to trades around news. In Table 5, Panel B we introduce
index funds. Thus, such investors focus more on actively our Fund-Level Local Bias measure into the cross-sectional
managed funds. The extent to which index funds are regression specification. This variable is distinct from
held goes up as individual stock portfolio performance individual equity local bias in that it measures the
goes down. geographical proximity between an investor’s home and
the headquarters of mutual funds held by the investor,
4.4. Behavioral biases and preference for certain types of not the proximity of the headquarters of an individual
mutual funds listed company. We also introduce Fund-Level Inattention
to the cross sectional regressions. This variable measures
To better understand investor preferences for different each individual’s propensity to trade mutual funds around
types of funds, we examine three additional characteris- macroeconomic news events as 1  (number of mutual
tics of investors’ mutual fund portfolios. Table 5, Panel A fund trades around the event)/(total number of mutual
presents the cross-sectional estimates. In Specifications fund trades).
1–3, the dependent variable is the mean expense ratio, The estimates in Specifications 1–3 show that inves-
the mean front-end load, and the mean fund turnover, tors with stronger Fund-Level Local Bias tend to select
respectively, for each individual’s mutual fund portfolio. mutual funds with higher expense ratios, front end loads,
Specification 1 shows that investors with stronger Dis- and turnover, even after controlling for other behavioral
position Effect, Narrow Framing, Overconfidence Dummy,
Lottery Stocks Preference, Inattention to Earnings News, and
20
interaction between Disposition Effect and No December See Capon, Fitzsimons and Prince (1996) for survey evidence that
Tax Loss Selling tend to select mutual funds with higher about 39% of mutual fund investors were unaware of the load charged
by the funds they held.
expense ratios. Specification 2 examines front-end loads 21
Starks and Yates (2008) investigate a related familiarity-based
and confirms that the same set of biases that drive hypothesis and find that individuals often cluster their choice of funds
investors to higher expense funds is also associated with within the same family of funds.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 13

Table 5
Characteristics of investors and the funds they select.
This table reports cross-sectional regression estimates in which three different mutual fund portfolio characteristics are employed as dependent
variables. In Panel A, Specifications 1–3, the mean expense ratio, the mean front-end load, and the mean turnover of the funds in the mutual fund
portfolio is the dependent variable, respectively. In all specifications, the dependent variable is multiplied by one hundred. There is one observation per
investor. Independent variables are defined in Appendix A, and an intercept term is included but not reported. In Panel B, we consider two additional
independent variables. Zip code clustered standard errors are used to obtain the t-statistics. The statistically significant coefficient estimates are indicated
in bold font. There is one observation per individual.

(1) Expense ratio (2) Front-end load (3) Fund turnover

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Panel A: Mutual fund portfolio characteristic regression estimates


Behavioral Bias Proxies
Disposition Effect 0.012 3.02 0.033 3.11 0.004 0.55
Narrow Framing 0.019 3.55 0.041 2.42 0.004 1.01
Overconfidence Dummy 0.020 3.11 0.029 2.50 0.022 2.67
Male Dummy 0.005 1.05 0.012 1.22 0.018 2.19
Local Bias 0.003 0.18 0.021 1.70  0.009  1.40
Lottery Stocks Preference 0.024 3.95 0.033 2.29 0.017 2.66
Inattention to Earnings News 0.013 2.33 0.022 2.65 0.019 2.08
Inattention to Macroeconomic News 0.005 1.13 0.017 1.54 0.003 0.34
DEnHigh Income 0.007 1.60 0.011 1.69 0.021 2.80
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling 0.024 3.60 0.026 2.44 0.025 3.51

Control Variables
Age  0.014  2.30  0.030  1.65  0.037  2.98
Income 0.007 1.51 0.011 1.00 0.023 1.71
High Income Dummy 0.003 0.90 0.015 0.69  0.034  2.30
Marital Status  0.005  1.70  0.008  0.50 0.005 0.55
Family Size 0.004 0.80 0.012 1.01 0.015 0.70
Professional Dummy 0.007 1.11 0.024 1.22  0.021  2.05
Retired Dummy  0.015  2.30 0.012 0.56  0.017  1.81
Investment Experience  0.014  2.59  0.025  2.51  0.033  3.00
Financial Center Dummy  0.008  1.41  0.004  1.22  0.027  2.67
Options Dummy 0.002 0.35 0.012 1.33 0.019 2.75
Short Sale Dummy  0.003  1.13  0.014  0.99 0.013 1.99
Stock Portfolio Diversification  0.001  0.11 0.003 0.90 0.013 1.09
Stock Portfolio Size 0.001 0.17 0.008 0.45 0.005 0.60
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.006  1.54  0.004  0.26 0.009 0.91
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.015 2.52 0.031 2.89 0.034 2.99
Holds Tax-Deferred Account  0.022  4.81  0.013  3.53  0.020  3.86
Market Factor Exposure 0.010 2.56 0.016 2.65 0.022 2.97
SMB Factor Exposure 0.018 3.17 0.012 2.26 0.024 3.39
HML Factor Exposure 0.003 0.93 0.012 2.39 0.001 0.23
UMD Factor Exposure 0.019 3.72 0.024 3.34 0.031 3.52

Adjusted R2 0.071 0.054 0.066


Number of Observations 21,542 21,542 21,542

Panel B: Regression estimates with the fund-level local bias and inattentiveness measures
Behavioral Bias Proxies
Disposition Effect 0.013 2.99 0.032 3.07 0.002 0.21
Narrow Framing 0.016 3.44 0.045 2.44 0.003 0.50
Overconfidence Dummy 0.018 3.24 0.025 2.32 0.022 2.43
Male Dummy 0.004 0.87 0.012 1.21 0.016 2.31
Local Bias 0.004 0.29 0.020 1.68  0.011  1.52
Lottery Stocks Preference 0.022 4.12 0.028 2.49 0.017 2.74
Inattention to Earnings News 0.011 2.19 0.022 2.49 0.015 2.58
Inattention to Macroeconomic News 0.008 1.85 0.019 2.68 0.002 0.22
DEnHigh Income 0.007 1.63 0.016 2.03 0.017 2.29
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling 0.022 3.49 0.022 2.36 0.023 3.44

Fund-level bias proxies


Fund-Level Local Bias 0.024 5.43 0.050 3.59 0.036 4.65
Fund-Level Inattention to Macro News 0.018 2.37 0.017 2.11 0.002 0.54

Control Variables
Age  0.016  2.42  0.028  1.33  0.034  2.03
Income 0.007 1.23 0.011 1.05 0.021 1.60
High Income Dummy 0.003 0.50 0.015 0.65  0.030  2.13
Marital Status  0.006  1.70  0.007  0.70 0.005 0.51
Family Size 0.005 1.02 0.018 1.03 0.014 0.74
Professional Dummy 0.005 1.06 0.017 0.98  0.025  2.05
Retired Dummy  0.014  1.93 0.011 0.55  0.018  1.83
14 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Table 5 (continued )

(1) Expense ratio (2) Front-end load (3) Fund turnover

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Investment Experience  0.015  2.61  0.016  2.12  0.025  2.62


Financial Center Dummy  0.004  1.06  0.005  1.35  0.024  2.63
Options Dummy 0.002 0.30 0.011 1.35 0.021 3.22
Short Sale Dummy  0.008  1.53  0.018  1.39 0.013 2.02
Stock Portfolio Diversification 0.004 0.76 0.004 0.91 0.011 1.06
Stock Portfolio Size 0.002 0.38 0.011 1.01 0.007 0.60
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.008  1.51  0.007  0.30 0.008 0.74
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.013 2.33 0.030 2.80 0.029 2.71
Holds Tax-Deferred Account  0.020  4.71  0.012  3.33  0.021  3.67
Market Factor Exposure 0.011 2.55 0.015 2.78 0.023 2.73
SMB Factor Exposure 0.018 3.11 0.012 2.21 0.023 3.32
HML Factor Exposure 0.003 0.90 0.013 2.43 0.001 0.21
UMD Factor Exposure 0.021 3.70 0.026 3.54 0.030 3.50

Adjusted R2 0.072 0.056 0.069


Number of Observations 21,542 21,542 21,542

biases. Indeed, Fund-Level Local Bias emerges as the vari- does not predict future returns. Instead of analyzing
able with the largest economic and statistical significance aggregate flows, our data allow us to study the relation
compared with all other behavioral biases. Intriguingly, between behavioral tendencies and trend-chasing beha-
further correlation analysis (unreported but available vior at the individual investor level.
upon request) shows that Fund-Level Local Bias is nega- Table 6 examines trend chasing in individual mutual
tively correlated with age and positively correlated with fund portfolios. For each mutual fund purchase, we
Retired Dummy and Stock Portfolio Size. This again suggests compute the return prior to the purchase, which is then
localized marketing efforts: Older investors are typically averaged for each individual. Specification 1 uses 1-year
cleverer and avoid Fund-Level Local Bias, but retired past returns as dependent variable, and Specification 2
investors with large portfolios could be subjected to uses the 2-year past returns. The results from both
recommendations or marketing efforts from brokers, specifications show that investors with certain behavioral
bankers, and social peers. biases, or inattention to macro news, tend to buy funds
Thus, investors who exhibit a stronger preference to with more positive recent returns. Although the disposi-
hold local funds, which could be thought of as a famil- tion effect does not seem to be associated with trend
iarity effect, are more likely to buy funds with high fees, chasing, the coefficients on the Disposition EffectnHigh
expenses, and turnover. Furthermore, Fund-Level Inatten- Income and Disposition EffectnNo December Tax Loss Selling
tion is positive and significant in two of the three are strongly significantly positive. Among the coefficients
specifications, those for expense ratios and front end on the control variables, some evidence shows that
loads. Investors who pay less attention to news seem to sophisticated investors (those who are professionals, live
select funds that impose higher expenses and loads on near a financial center, trade options, or have well-
themselves. These findings suggest that behavioral biases diversified, well-performing individual stock portfolios)
can combine with ignorance to yield costly suboptimal are less likely to engage in trend chasing. As was found
mutual fund investment decisions. previously (Table 5) for the propensity to select high-cost
mutual funds, the size of slope coefficients suggest that
4.6. Behavioral biases and trend chasing behavior Overconfidence Dummy and Lottery Stocks Preference are
among the strongest predictors of whether a particular
Our next set of tests examines whether behavioral investor will trend-chase with mutual funds.
biases also play an important role in explaining individual This evidence suggests that trend chasing is not a
investors’ trend-chasing behavior. Many explanations rational strategy. This interpretation is supported by the
have previously been proposed for this robust pattern empirical results of previous authors concerning mutual
observed in mutual fund flow data. Chevalier and Ellison fund flows and subsequent returns on individual stocks
(1997) show that agency problems induce fund managers held by the funds. Frazzini and Lamont (2008) find
to alter the riskiness of the fund to maximize investment relatively poor monthly returns on portfolios of individual
flows instead of risk-adjusted expected returns. Sirri and stocks held disproportionately heavily by mutual funds
Tufano (1998) and Gruber (1996) propose that investors that experience high inflows over the previous 6 months
infer managerial skill from past returns. Berk and Green to 3 years. We find that it is more behaviorally biased
(2004) feature investors who infer managerial skill from individuals who are responsible for trend-chasing inflows.
past returns and, therefore, chase returns. However, fund Thus, some of what they describe as the ‘‘dumb money’’
managers facing decreasing returns to scale in their active effect must be ascribed to a subset of investors who we
portfolios no longer outperform the index when more have also identified as making poor decisions with their
funds flow in, and, as a consequence, past performance individual stock portfolios.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 15

Table 6
Returns chasing and fund selection.
This table reports cross-sectional regression estimates with two different mutual fund portfolio performance measures as dependent variables, the
12-month past return and the 24-month past return. There is one observation per investor. The independent variables include behavioral bias proxies,
control variables, and an intercept term that is included but unreported. Independent variables are defined in Appendix A. Investors with fewer than 12
months of data are excluded. Zip code clustered standard errors are used to obtain the t-statistics. The statistically significant coefficient estimates are
indicated in bold font. The individual investor data are from a large US discount brokerage house for the 1991–1996 period.

(1) 12-Month past return (2) 24-Month past return

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Behavioral Bias Proxies


Disposition Effect  0.022  0.25 0.087 0.34
Narrow Framing 0.644 4.35 0.764 3.45
Overconfidence Dummy 1.370 5.04 1.604 6.87
Male Dummy 0.062 0.46 0.258 2.51
Local Bias 0.154 1.09 0.034 0.33
Lottery Stocks Preference 0.978 6.39 1.196 5.75
Inattention to Earnings News 0.199 1.62 0.291 1.85
Inattention to Macroeconomic News 0.581 2.18 0.492 2.84
DEnHigh Income 0.353 2.05 0.508 2.57
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling 0.480 2.16 0.390 2.06

Control Variables
Age  0.329  1.66  0.886  2.11
Income  0.427  1.83  0.542  1.62
High Income Dummy  0.061  0.58  0.196  1.49
Marital Status  0.077  0.81 0.443 1.52
Family Size  0.149  1.22  0.609  1.76
Professional Dummy  0.629  2.32  1.052  2.92
Retired Dummy  0.487  2.91  0.152  1.92
Investment Experience 0.057 0.30  0.468  1.98
Financial Center Dummy  0.404  2.13  0.510  1.63
Options Dummy  0.347  2.71  0.492  2.63
Short Sale Dummy  0.024  0.12 0.070 0.46
Stock Portfolio Diversification  0.093  0.46  0.492  2.02
Stock Portfolio Size  0.139  0.68  0.103  0.71
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.558  3.46  0.768  2.13
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.380 1.92 0.407 2.93
Holds Tax-Deferred Account  0.062  0.61  0.168  2.38
Market Factor Exposure 0.862 3.87 0.565 3.54
SMB Factor Exposure 0.393 2.64 0.485 3.82
HML Factor Exposure 0.068 0.67 0.151 2.15
UMD Factor Exposure 0.228 2.40 0.264 2.51

Adjusted R2 0.091 0.076


Number of Observations 21,542 21,542

The disposition effect result merits further discussion. that investors decompose their portfolios into layers that
In the classic form of this bias, investors sell well- serve different purposes (Shefrin and Statman, 2000).
performing individual stocks too quickly and hold poor- Overall, our cross-sectional regression estimates
performing stocks too long. Trend chasing by individuals reported in Tables 4–6 confirm that investors who are
who invest in mutual funds is broadly contradictory to a more behaviorally biased on any of several dimensions or
disposition effect in individual stocks: Trend-chasers seek do not pay attention to salient news are more likely to
and then hold good performers, instead of selling them display poor mutual fund investment decisions. They
quickly. Our disposition effect interactive terms isolate typically have a greater proportion of their equity invest-
investors who display a disposition effect that is likely to ment in individual stocks, not mutual funds, suggesting
be particularly severe, and both terms earn a strongly that they do not value diversification. When they buy
significantly positive slope coefficient in the regressions funds, they prefer actively managed funds to index funds,
of Table 6. Thus, individuals who display particularly tend to buy funds with high fees and loads, and chase
damaging forms of the disposition effect in their indivi- funds with high recent returns. The strength of one of our
dual stock portfolios tend to contradict themselves by simplest behavioral bias measures, Lottery Stocks Prefer-
displaying trend chasing in their mutual fund choices. ence, is particularly compelling.
This implies that behavioral biases do not just vary across The missing link in our evidence and interpretations to
individuals but also across the components within a this point is more explicit evidence on performance.
particular investor’s portfolio, with professionally mana- While it appears that behavioral biases and ignoring news
ged assets handled in a radically different manner than lead to poor choices, we must also show the consequences
individual stocks. This could be consistent with the idea for performance. For example, individual investors
16 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

typically avoid high front-end load funds (Barber, Odean risk-adjusted returns from mutual funds. Thus, poor
and Zheng, 2005), but some investors could be able to decision making in one domain appears to spill over into
discriminate between good and bad quality front-end the performance experienced with other classes of
load funds and enjoy superior portfolio performance from investments.
those high load funds that they do elect to hold. Thus, our While Table 7, Panel A describes the actual realized
next task is to examine the performance of investors’ returns of individual investors based on their total hold-
mutual fund portfolios. ings at the end of each month, Panel B studies perfor-
mance based on investor trades under both actual and
4.7. Performance of mutual fund portfolios hypothetical holding periods computed using daily fund
returns data from Morningstar.24 Specifications 1 and 2
We again estimate cross-sectional regressions with the study actual holding period returns from trades. They
same behavioral proxies and controls as explanatory confirm that investors with higher values on most of our
variables. Table 7, Panel A studies mutual fund perfor- behavioral bias proxies and inattention to news measures
mance for each investor’s actual holdings. The dependent have significantly lower holding period returns and
variables are four measures of the sample period perfor- shorter holding period, in contrast to the buy-and-hold
mance of each investor’s mutual fund portfolio, the raw strategies prescribed by standard portfolio theory. Local
performance measure (mean monthly portfolio return), Bias is associated with longer holding periods. Correlation
the net-of-expenses performance measure (the net analysis (unreported but available upon request) indicates
monthly return), the Sharpe ratio, and the market model that Local Bias is associated with poor diversification and
alpha. We again use zip code clustered standard errors to mediocre performance in the individual stock portfolio,
compute the t-statistics because performance estimates but Specification 2 shows us that it could also yield
are unlikely to be independent.22 sensible low turnover of mutual fund holdings.
Specification 1 explains the mean monthly return. Dis- Specifications 3 and 4 adopt the alternative viewpoint
position Effect, Narrow Framing, Overconfidence Dummy, of returns based on actual trades but standardized
Lottery Stock Preference, and both measures of inattention hypothetical holding periods. Following Odean (1999)
to news are associated with lower performance. For exam- and Kumar and Lee (2006), we calculate the subsequent
ple, mean monthly return is lower by  0.041 per month k-month returns following each buy trade averaged over
for each standard deviation of increase in narrow framing. the trading history of an individual and subtract the
Because the highest and lowest quintiles of narrow framing subsequent k-month returns following each sell trade
differ by 4.3 standard deviations, this implies a 2.12% per averaged over the trading history. The summary statistics
year lower return for highest quintile narrow framing on 1- and 12-month post-trade buy–sell return differen-
investors compared with those in the lowest quintile. tials show that investors who score high on most of our
Similarly, highest quintile disposition effect investors have behavioral and inattention proxies have lower post-trade
returns 1.34% lower than those in the lowest quintile.23 buy–sell returns differentials. In other words, investors
Thus, our behavioral proxies detect poor decision-making with strong behavioral biases tend to time their buys and
skills that reduce portfolio performance. sells poorly, and they experience inferior performance
Among the control variables, investment experience is relative to less-biased investors. The results are especially
significant, and the positive slope makes sense. The use of significant for 12-month returns differentials.
options or short sales is associated with better mutual Table 8 features interactions between investor portfo-
fund performance, which is consistent with those vari- lio characteristics and fund characteristics to explain
ables reflecting skill or financial sophistication. Specifica- performance. Individual household mutual fund perfor-
tion (2) examines net monthly returns and shows similar mance is regressed on the behavioral biases and inatten-
associations between behavioral biases and performance. tion measures previously employed, characteristics of the
Specification 3 examines the Sharpe ratio. We again individual’s mutual fund portfolio (the weight of
find broadly similar associations with the behavioral bias the portfolio held in mutual funds, and the averages of
proxies, inattention measures, and control variables. the expense ratio, 12-B-1 fee, and front-end load on
Narrow Framing, Overconfidence Dummy, and, to a lesser the funds held), interactive terms that combine beha-
extent, Disposition Effect are associated with lower per- vioral and portfolio characteristics, and (unreported)
formance. Results are similar when we account for poten- control variables.
tial cross-sectional dependence in performance induced The results confirm the negative impact of disposition
by market-wide factors and consider a risk-adjusted effect, narrow framing, overconfidence, lottery stocks
performance measure as the dependent variable (Specifi- preference, and inattention to news on performance as
cation 4). Collectively, the evidence in Table 7, Panel A documented previously. Among the mutual fund portfolio
shows that behavioral biases measured from individual characteristics, investors with higher weight on mutual
stock selection are also associated with lower raw and funds tend to enjoy superior fund performance, which is
consistent with classic notions of portfolio management.
22
As before, other forms of standard error clustering yield very
similar results.
23 24
Given that the highest and lowest quintiles of disposition effect Partial sales are excluded from our calculations. Unlike Panel A,
differ by 4.13 standard deviations, their yearly performance difference is these calculations exclude any funds that were held prior to the start of
1.34% (  0.027% times 12 times 4.13). our sample period.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 17

Table 7
Investor characteristics and performance of mutual fund investments.
This table reports cross-sectional regression estimates to explain two measures of mutual fund portfolio performance, position-based performance
measures in Panel A and trade-based performance measures in Panel B. In Panel A, the dependent variables are (1) the mean monthly percent return (in
percentage terms), (2) the net monthly return which equals the mean monthly return minus expenses (but not loads), (3) the Sharpe ratio of net returns
multiplied by one hundred, and (4) the monthly market model alpha. In Panel B, the dependent variables in Specifications 1 to 4 are the mean annualized
holding period return, the mean holding period, the one-month post trade buy–sell return differential, and the 12-month post trade buy–sell return
differential (PTBSD), respectively. Independent variables are defined in appendix. A constant term is included. Investors with fewer than 12 months of
data are excluded. Zip code clustered standard errors are used to obtain the t-statistics. The statistically significant coefficient estimates are indicated in
bold font. The individual investor data are from a large US discount brokerage house from 1991 to 1996.

Panel A: Position-Based Mutual Fund Portfolio Performance Regression Estimates


(1) Mean monthly returns (2) Net monthly returns (3) Net Sharpe ratio  100 (4) Market model alpha

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Behavioral Bias Proxies


Disposition Effect  0.027  2.14  0.028  2.16  0.554  1.94  0.027  1.96
Narrow Framing  0.041  2.94  0.047  2.75  1.550  3.83  0.050  2.65
Overconfidence Dummy  0.025  2.17  0.031  2.60  1.502  2.39  0.033  2.06
Male Dummy  0.009  1.05  0.012  1.42  1.503  1.90  0.039  2.29
Local Bias 0.010 1.20 0.010 1.30 0.113 0.42 0.006 0.88
Lottery Stocks Preference  0.026  2.99  0.024  2.78  1.249  1.97  0.059  3.26
Inattention to Earnings News  0.014  2.18  0.015  2.48  1.041  2.13  0.026  2.82
Inattention to Macroeconomic News  0.022  2.22  0.024  2.45  1.010  2.03  0.019  1.92
DEnHigh Income  0.009  1.26  0.012  1.26 0.143 0.19 0.006 0.80
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling  0.016  1.66  0.016  1.62  0.155  0.51  0.028  2.58

Control Variables
Age  0.007  1.59  0.008  1.45 0.448 0.65  0.003  0.72
Income 0.002 0.22 0.003 0.18  0.581  0.88  0.011  0.31
High Income Dummy 0.026 1.63 0.030 1.89 0.200 1.04 0.026 0.48
Marital Status 0.004 0.34 0.009 0.59 0.218 0.36  0.003  0.08
Family Size  0.004  0.34  0.004  0.40  0.679  0.97  0.039  1.91
Professional Dummy  0.002  0.12  0.017  0.87  0.308  0.40 0.002 0.43
Retired Dummy 0.003 0.21 0.003 0.18 0.046 0.08  0.034  1.54
Investment Experience 0.028 3.15 0.026 2.89 1.991 2.72 0.051 2.35
Financial Center Dummy  0.001  0.08  0.011  0.88  0.510  0.85  0.014  1.42
Options Dummy 0.034 2.51 0.043 1.79 1.517 2.62 0.062 3.12
Short Sale Dummy 0.051 2.36 0.021 1.55 0.978 1.64 0.035 1.33
Stock Portfolio Diversification 0.028 1.83 0.024 1.57 0.105 0.18  0.013  0.94
Stock Portfolio Size 0.023 1.39 0.023 1.43 1.288 2.03  0.011  0.28
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.032  1.29  0.033  2.07  0.672  1.17 0.001 0.31
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.003 0.29 0.002 0.18  0.614  1.66  0.018  1.47
Holds Tax-Deferred Account  0.003  0.59  0.003  0.58 0.168 1.02  0.017  1.62
Market Factor Exposure 0.021 2.78 0.019 2.43 0.595 3.08 0.009 0.51
SMB Factor Exposure 0.012 1.38 0.004 0.66 0.670 3.51 0.038 2.71
HML Factor Exposure 0.007 1.35 0.006 1.22 0.025 0.14 0.014 1.39
UMD Factor Exposure 0.031 3.35 0.024 2.98 0.449 2.75 0.016 1.68

Adjusted R2 0.042 0.043 0.037 0.029


Number of Observations 21,542 21,542 21,542 20,142

Panel B: Trade-Based Mutual Fund Portfolio Performance


(1) Holding period return (2) Holding period (3) One-month PTBSD (4) 12-month PTBSD

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Intercept 0.418 12.57 444.20 17.85 0.042 0.97  2.526  14.34

Behavioral Bias Proxies


Disposition Effect  0.059  2.46  25.15  4.26  0.070  2.48  0.295  2.26
Narrow Framing  0.054  3.40  15.16  2.97  0.096  3.48  0.462  3.26
Overconfidence Dummy  0.066  3.06  42.61  7.75  0.090  2.17  0.569  2.99
Male Dummy 0.018 0.53  3.36  0.56  0.018  1.09  0.114  1.63
Local Bias  0.005  0.14 10.02 2.67 0.013 0.69  0.356  2.27
Lottery Stocks Preference  0.037  2.27  24.17  2.36  0.058  2.27  0.551  2.34
Inattention to Earnings News  0.010  1.26  4.02  1.62  0.033  2.66  0.474  2.36
Inattention to Macroeconomic News  0.048  2.29  11.71  2.85  0.029  2.60  0.526  2.69
DEnHigh Income  0.065  3.17  19.66  2.67  0.061  2.55  0.485  2.07
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling  0.037  1.99  15.69  2.89 0.002 0.36  0.079  1.39

Control Variables
Age  0.049  2.46 18.65 1.99  0.054  2.06  0.417  2.23
Income 0.015 0.22  2.27  0.25  0.005  0.15  0.084  0.72
High Income Dummy 0.014 0.94  4.58  1.39  0.024  1.63  0.257  1.26
18 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Table 7 (continued )

Panel B: Trade-Based Mutual Fund Portfolio Performance


(1) Holding period return (2) Holding period (3) One-month PTBSD (4) 12-month PTBSD

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Marital Status 0.025 1.09 5.02 0.59 0.008 0.46 0.183 1.61
Family Size 0.016 1.82  2.65  0.27 0.007 0.17 0.061 0.20
Professional Dummy  0.010  0.18  4.49  0.42 0.013 0.88  0.191  1.27
Retired Dummy  0.038  1.68 27.61 3.33  0.037  2.17  0.197  2.19
Investment Experience 0.038 2.21 8.67 1.58 0.089 3.50 0.587 3.14
Financial Center Dummy 0.006 0.31  16.56  2.03 0.020 1.31  0.051  0.31
Options Dummy 0.040 1.97  33.55  5.56 0.050 2.14 0.302 2.71
Short Sale Dummy 0.034 1.82  12.02  2.01 0.041 1.86 0.181 1.98
Stock Portfolio Diversification 0.013 0.73 41.47 3.88 0.016 1.01 0.091 1.33
Stock Portfolio Size 0.026 1.70 3.33 0.55 0.022 1.55 0.071 0.95
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.042  2.50  25.00  4.92  0.017  1.05  0.409  2.65
No December Tax Loss Selling  0.015  1.32 45.25 3.35  0.074  2.77  0.223  1.85
Holds Tax-Deferred Account 0.023 1.95 7.11 1.53  0.013  0.38 0.035 0.25
Market Factor Exposure 0.004 0.16  26.14  3.53 0.047 2.09 0.261 1.78
SMB Factor Exposure 0.035 1.98  23.73  3.86 0.013 0.95 0.457 3.13
HML Factor Exposure  0.015  1.21  2.36  0.51 0.025 1.65 0.234 1.68
UMD Factor Exposure 0.024 1.11 16.83 2.99 0.017 0.88 0.095 0.76

Adjusted R2 0.045 0.093 0.040 0.064


Number of Observations 15,210 15,210 18,002 18,002

Investors with higher weight on expenses, 12-B-1 market- significant for those that choose concentrated portfolios,
ing fees, and front-end load funds typically experience with smart investors outperforming by a wide margin.25
inferior fund performance.
Among the interactive terms, we see particularly poor
performance for high disposition effect investors who 4.8. Aggregating the behavioral bias proxies and
select funds with high 12-B-1 marketing fees or high other characteristics
front-end loads. This also appears to be the case for
investors with strong framing effects or overconfidence. Next, we measure the combined effects of investor
The coefficients for interactives for high inattention and characteristics using both the factors constructed from
fees are uniformly significantly negative. Thus, investors the behavioral bias proxies and other investor character-
with particularly high behavioral biases who choose to istics and an equally weighted index that combines the
remain poorly informed could make particularly poor behavioral bias proxies. Panel A of Table 9 summarizes
choices, stumbling into mutual funds with high expense regressions similar to those of Tables 4–7 but replaces the
ratios, high 12-B-1 marketing fees, or front-end loads. individual investor characteristics with the first five
This echoes the finding in Table 5 that behavioral biases factors resulting from factor analysis described in
are particularly powerful in pulling investors into high Section 4.1.
front end load funds. This is also consistent with the The first two columns study the first factor, which we
possibility that the mutual fund industry positions certain previously labeled Gambler. The evidence in the table
products to exploit particularly biased individuals. confirms this characterization. Gambler represents indi-
In unreported results, we examine the performance viduals who are less likely to use mutual funds, tend to
differences among investors who use index funds. We do select high expense funds, are more likely to trend-chase,
not find significant associations between the performance and suffer significantly inferior mutual fund portfolio
of individual index fund portfolios and individual beha- performance as a consequence. Put another way, Gambler
vioral biases. We consider different types of tests, includ- employs mutual funds less than he probably should, but,
ing univariate sorts and multivariate regressions with and when he does, he makes poor use of them.
without controls or interaction terms. All our results We previously identified the second factor as Smart,
consistently show that behavioral biases do not affect given that the individual stock portfolio of this stereotype
the performance of investors’ index fund portfolios. This avoids biases and displays relatively good performance.
evidence indicates that investors can protect themselves The evidence in Panel A of Table 9 suggests that Smart’s
from their own worst impulses by holding index funds and beneficial behavior extends to his use of mutual funds.
reinforces the classic intuition that most individual inves- The signs and significance of regression coefficients indi-
tors perform better if they stick to well-diversified index cate that the Smart stereotype is more likely to use
funds. Our findings also echo Korniotis and Kumar
(forthcoming) who show that the performance difference 25
This supports the notion that individual investors should be
between smart and dumb investors is insignificant when encouraged to make good decisions, as with retirement savings plan
both hold well-diversified stock portfolios, but it is highly (Benartzi and Thaler, 2007).
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 19

Table 8
Behavioral biases, mutual fund portfolio characteristics, and portfolio performance.
This table reports cross-sectional regression estimates with two different mutual fund portfolio performance measures as dependent variables: (1) the
mean net monthly percent return and (2) the Sharpe ratio computed using net returns multiplied by 100. There is one observation per investor. The
independent variables are behavioral bias proxies and inattention measures, mutual fund characteristics, bias-load interaction terms, and control
variables. Independent variables are defined in Appendix A. Mutual fund characteristics include the initial weight assigned to mutual funds in the equity
(stocks and mutual funds) portfolio and three expense measures of the mutual fund portfolio: the sample period mean expense ratio, the sample period
mean 12-B-1 fee, and the sample period mean front-end load. Bias-load interaction terms equal the multiplication between each of three behavioral bias
measures and each of three mutual fund expense ratio measures. The three behavioral bias measures are high disposition effect, strong framing effects,
and overconfidence. The inattention measure is the equally weighted average of the two stock-level inattention measures. The three expense ratio
measures are high expense ratios, high 12-B-1 fees, and high front-end loads. The mutual fund portfolio weight is measured at the time an investor enters
the sample or invests in mutual funds for the first time. High and low dummy variables are defined using the highest and the lowest quintile of the
respective variable. Investors with fewer than 12 months of data are excluded. Zip code clustered standard errors are used to obtain the t-statistics. The
statistically significant coefficient estimates are indicated in bold font. The individual investor data are from a large US discount brokerage house for the
1991–1996 period.

(1) Net monthly return (2) Net Sharpe ratio  100

Independent Variable Coefficient t-statistic Coefficient t-statistic

Intercept 1.320 13.14 40.156 21.80

Behavioral Bias Proxies


Disposition Effect  0.025  2.01  0.556  1.98
Narrow Framing  0.043  2.90  1.565  3.67
Overconfidence Dummy  0.021  2.00  1.446  2.24
Male Dummy  0.010  1.12  1.498  1.81
Local Bias 0.009 0.56 0.100 0.22
Lottery Stocks Preference  0.033  3.11  1.301  1.99
Inattention to Earnings News  0.015  2.11  1.114  2.34
Inattention to Macroeconomic News  0.025  2.34  0.989  2.00
DEnHigh Income  0.011  1.55 0.101 0.16
DEnNo December Tax Loss Selling  0.015  1.52  0.151  0.59

Mutual Fund Portfolio Characteristics


Initial Weight in Mutual Funds 0.044 3.71 1.721 3.65
Mutual Fund Portfolio Expense Ratio  0.010  0.74  0.730  3.44
Mutual Fund Portfolio 12-B-1 Fee 0.051 3.55  2.234  4.36
Mutual Fund Portfolio Front-End Load  0.048  3.97  2.142  5.02

Bias-load interaction terms


High Disposition EffectnHigh Expense Ratio  0.004  0.40  0.487  1.49
High Disposition EffectnHigh 12-B-1 Fee  0.025  2.99  2.356  7.15
High Disposition EffectnHigh Front-End Load  0.054  5.09  2.381  8.58
Strong Framing EffectsnHigh Expesne Ratio  0.008  0.86  0.268  0.79
Strong Framing EffectsnHigh 12-B-1 Fee  0.015  1.91  2.298  6.93
Strong Framing EffectsnHigh Front-End Load  0.055  7.09  2.464  8.71
OverconfidentnHigh Expense Ratio  0.006  0.71  0.544  1.66
OverconfidentnHigh 12-B-1 Fee  0.024  3.88  2.433  7.39
OverconfidentnHigh Front-End Load  0.052  6.86  2.312  8.35
High InattentionnHigh Expense Ratio  0.017  3.88  1.119  2.83
High InattentionnHigh 12-B-1 Fee  0.022  2.46  2.106  4.73
High InattentionnHigh Front-End Load  0.063  4.97  0.927  2.21

Control Variables
Coefficient estimates have been suppressed.

Adjusted R2 0.055 0.051


Number of Observations 21,542 21,542

mutual funds, more likely to use funds with low expense even worse than Gambler’s varies across our eight per-
ratios or loads, less likely to trend-chase, and enjoys formance measures.
significantly positive mutual fund performance based on We labeled the fourth factor Narrow Framer. Narrow
all eight of the performance measures we examine. Framer’s mutual fund participation is about as bad as
We previously labeled the third factor Overconfident Gambler’s, though not as bad as Overconfident’s. Small
based on trading of individual equities and other char- holdings of mutual funds, selection of high expense funds,
acteristics. The evidence on Overconfident’s mutual fund trend chasing, and consequent poor performance are
portfolio confirms our impression that this stereotype also evident, though milder than for Gambler and
is a poor decision-maker. Overconfident avoids participa- Overconfident.
tion in mutual funds and trend-chases to an even Finally, the mutual fund use and performance repre-
greater degree than Gambler, and he also tends to select sented by the fifth factor, Mature, mirrors what we
high expense, high load, and high turnover funds. reported earlier for Mature’s individual stock portfolio.
Whether Overconfident’s mutual fund performance is To Mature’s credit, he participates and holds mutual funds
20 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

to a greater extent than our other stereotypes and avoids considering alternative explanations for our findings, and
high-expense funds and trend chasing to an even greater offering additional evidence on the most biased investors.
extent than Smart. However, other elements of Mature’s
decision making about mutual funds yield significant 5.1. ‘‘Play money’’ accounts?
negatives on four of our eight performance measures.
This finding is consistent with the evidence in Korniotis In our first set of additional considerations, we test
and Kumar (2011), who show that older investors are whether our results are driven primarily by a ‘‘play
more likely to follow common investing rules but employ money’’ effect. We compute the average portfolio
them less effectively and subsequently experience worse size-to-annual income ratio for each investor, excluding
portfolio performance. investors in the lowest quintile. Unreported results indi-
One interesting observation from Panel A of Table 9 cate that our findings remain qualitatively similar even
concerns the use of index funds. Unsurprisingly, Gambler, when we exclude investors who hold portfolios that
Overconfident, and Narrow Framer score negatively on are small relative to their annual income. For example,
both index fund participation and holdings. Their lack of the coefficient estimate of the bias index in Table 4,
interest in these useful and prudent funds is consistent Column 1 is 0.749 (t-statistic¼  5.49) for the full
with a pattern of bad decision making in their use of other sample and  0.755 (t-statistic ¼ 5.88) for the subsam-
funds and individual stocks. Mature seems to participate ple that excludes potential play money. This evidence
in index funds as frequently as Smart and holds an even indicates that our results are unlikely to be induced by a
greater proportion of such funds than Smart. However, subset of investors who maintain a small portfolio and
this is not enough to overcome Mature’s other decision- trade it for irrational or frivolous reasons.
making problems and yield positive performance.
As an alternative to the five named factors from factor
analysis, Panel B of Table 9 presents similar results based 5.2. Mutual fund decisions for retirement accounts
on an equally weighted behavioral index.26 Specifically,
we normalize each behavioral factor to have a mean of Many investors in our sample hold personal retire-
zero and a standard deviation of one, then average these ment accounts. About 42% of the accounts in our sample
normalized behavioral proxies for each individual in the are retirement accounts (IRA or Keogh).27 Thus, we
sample. The table shows that in all cases the bias index is examine whether investors’ mutual fund choices vary
statistically significant and, more important, economically between retirement and non retirement accounts.28 It is
significant. In the discussion that follows, we infer the plausible that the adverse effects of behavioral biases on
decisions of investors in the lowest and the highest bias mutual fund decisions are mainly concentrated in non
quintiles. retirement accounts. We could view a retirement account
The average behavioral bias index values of investors as the opposite of a play money account and predict that
in the extreme bias quintiles are  0.709 and 0.627. The it is managed in a more conservative manner. We define a
standard deviation of the behavioral bias measure is ‘‘taxable account only’’ dummy, which is set to zero for
0.491, which indicates that the low and high behavioral investors who hold only retirement accounts in their
bias quintiles are 2.721 standard deviations away from equity portfolios and one otherwise. We include this
each other. In the participation regressions, the bias index dummy variable as an additional independent variable
estimates indicate that an investor who moves from the in our regression specifications.29
lowest to highest bias quintile reduces the probability of We find that investors do not exhibit a greater pro-
investing in mutual funds by 0.439  2.721 ¼1.189%, pensity to hold mutual funds in their retirement accounts.
while the propensity to invest in index funds drops by The taxable account only dummy has an insignificant
1.933%. In the holdings regressions, we find that moving coefficient estimate (  0.003 with z-statistic of 0.25).
across the extreme bias quintiles reduces the weight No evidence exists of a stronger propensity to hold index
assigned to mutual funds by 2.038%. This effect is even funds for investors who hold retirement accounts. The
stronger (5.254%) for index funds. The other regressions taxable account only dummy has a coefficient estimate of
summarized in Panel B of Table 9 paint a similar picture.  0.011 and z-statistic of  1.19. Even among investors
Behavioral biases are associated with selecting higher who choose to hold mutual funds, no evidence shows that
expense funds, trend chasing with funds, and significant they allocate a larger proportion of their equity portfolio
under-performance from fund holdings. In economic
terms, the combined effects of all behavioral biases are 27
Among 158,031 accounts in our sample there are 64,416 IRA and
moderately to strongly significant. 1,299 Keogh accounts. A typical household holds multiple accounts. Out
of 77,995 households in the sample, 43,706 hold at least one retirement
account.
28
5. Additional diagnostics See Sialm and Starks (forthcoming) for evidence that funds
directed at taxable investors appear more tax-efficient than funds
directed at retirement accounts. This approach is distinct from our use
In this section, we discuss additional tests that aug- of the holds tax deferred account dummy in earlier regressions, which
ment our main results by examining their robustness, identifies all accounts, regular or tax-deferred, held by someone who
holds at least one tax-deferred account.
29
All results are qualitatively similar when reestimated over two
26
This includes the five basic biases and the two inattention subsamples: investors who hold only retirement accounts and investors
measures but excludes the two tax interactives. who hold retirement and non-retirement accounts.
Table 9
Associations between aggregated behavioral biases and other characteristics, fund decisions, and consequences.
Panel A reports the combined effect of multiple bias proxies on mutual fund decisions using the five most important factors from factor analysis of the behavioral bias proxies and other investor
characteristics. Panel B reports the combined effect of multiple bias proxies on mutual fund decisions using an equally weighted index of the behavioral bias proxies. The behavioral factors are defined in
Appendix A and the factor analysis is detailed in Table 3. This table summarizes estimates of the regressions of Tables 4–7 in which the behavioral proxies and other investor characteristics are replaced with
the five most important factors from factor analysis. For brevity, only the coefficient estimates for the variable of interest are reported. PTBSD equals the post-trade buy–sell return differential.

Panel A: Estimates when the dependent variable is a factor of the behavioral bias proxies and other investor characteristics
Gambler factor Smart factor Overconfident factor Narrow Framer factor Mature factor Adjusted Number of
R2 Observations
Regression Type Coefficient t- or z- Coefficient t- or z- Coefficient t- or z- Coefficient t- or z- Coefficient t- or z-
statistic statistic statistic statistic statistic

Participation (Table 4)
All mutual funds: column 2  0.339  3.77 0.125 2.24  0.722  3.75  0.350  2.73 0.258 3.11 0.059 21,542
Index funds only: column 4  0.229  2.93 0.171 2.59  0.402  2.68  0.311  2.60 0.174 2.81 0.051 21,542

W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27


Holdings (Table 4)
Weight in all mutual funds: column 5  2.827  3.02 1.764 1.42  3.193  3.75  1.981  2.73 2.541 3.55 0.049 21,542
Weight in index funds only: column 6  1.901  2.71 1.166 1.81  2.792  3.18  1.591  2.76 2.407 2.76 0.055 21,542
Portfolio characteristics (Table 5)
Expense ratio: column 1 0.209 5.15  0.014  2.88 0.079 4.46 0.027 2.13  0.111  5.42 0.038 21,542
Front-end load: column 2 0.132 2.72  0.017  2.15 0.082 2.21 0.063 1.91  0.085  3.11 0.031 21,542
Fund turnover: column 3 0.114 3.71  0.029  2.31 0.145 3.59 0.033 1.22  0.148  4.68 0.043 21,542

Trend chasing (Table 6)


12-Month lagged fund performance: 1.180 2.93  0.096  1.23 1.729 3.02 0.863 1.97  1.367  2.65 0.071 21,542
column 1
24-Month lagged fund performance: 1.156 2.61  0.532  2.33 1.941 2.98 1.167 2.57  2.079  3.14 0.050 21,542
column 2

Portfolio performance (Table 7)


Mean monthly returns: Panel A,  0.109  2.65 0.085 2.33  0.111  2.82  0.066  1.92  0.025  1.82 0.028 21,542
column 1
Net monthly returns: Panel A, Column 2  0.122  2.60 0.076 2.51  0.189  3.77  0.058  1.98  0.019  1.31 0.026 21,542
Net Sharpe ratio: Panel A, column 3  2.568  3.20 2.853 3.12  1.110  2.04  2.109  3.08 0.664 1.12 0.024 21,542
Four-factor alpha: Panel A, Column 4  0.164  2.84 0.123 2.34  0.092  2.78  0.058  2.88  0.026  1.26 0.021 21,542
Holding period returns: Panel B,  0.095  3.08 0.059 2.42  0.074  2.90  0.078  2.94  0.055  2.40 0.033 15,210
column 1
Holding period: Panel B, column 2  27.904  3.07 18.514 2.38  15.504  2.27  8.211  2.58 21.675  2.99 0.065 15,210
One-month PTBSD: Panel B, column 3  0.152  3.49 0.125 3.48  0.093  3.36  0.051  2.77  0.076  3.21 0.025 15,210
One-year PTBSD: Panel B, column 4  0.916  3.37 0.936 3.70  0.691  3.28  0.544  2.82  0.722  2.87 0.050 15,210

Panel B: Estimates when dependent variable is equally weighted index of behavioral bias proxies
Regression Type Coefficient t- or z-statistic Adjusted R2 Number of Observations

Participation (Table 4)
All mutual funds: column 2  0.439  7.11 0.033 21,542
Index funds only: column 4  0.719  7.41 0.065 21,542

Holdings (Table 4)
Weight in all mutual funds: column 5  0.744  5.44 0.068 21,542
Weight in index funds only: column 6  1.933  4.72 0.142 21,542

Portfolio characteristics (Table 5)


Expense ratio: column 1 0.032 4.13 0.055 21,542

21
22 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

to mutual funds. The taxable account only dummy has


Number of Observations
statistically insignificant estimates in all specifications.
Examining the characteristics of funds in the portfolios
21,542 of investors who hold only retirement accounts, we find
21,542

21,542
21,542

21,542
21,542
21,542
20,142
15,210
15,210
15,210
15,210
that they do not have lower expense ratios, lower front
end loads, or lower turnover. Moreover, there is a greater
tendency to engage in trend chasing among these inves-
tors. When we reestimate the trend chasing regressions of
Table 6 with the taxable account only dummy variable, it
has a significantly positive coefficient estimate (coeffi-
cient estimate¼0.029, t-statistic ¼2.99).
To examine whether ‘‘retirement accounts only’’ inves-
tors exhibit better performance, we reestimate all the
performance regressions with the taxable account
dummy as an additional independent variable. In all
Adjusted R2

specifications, this dummy variable has an insignificant


0.044
0.053

0.083
0.065

0.038
0.042
0.031
0.028
0.033

0.029
0.048
0.080

coefficient estimate. Overall, we do not find evidence of


superior mutual fund decisions when investors hold
retirement accounts. The adverse effects of behavioral
biases on mutual fund decisions are similar across both
retirement and non retirement accounts. Thus, behavio-
rally biased investors do not manage retirement funds
any more carefully than their regular accounts.
t- or z-statistic

5.3. How do the most severely biased investors use


 3.71
 3.47
 3.85
 3.39
 5.16
 4.44
 4.12
 4.23
3.55

3.55
2.01

4.90

mutual funds?

Next, we consider whether the most severely behavio-


rally biased investors tend to concentrate in particular
types of funds, how often they trade those funds, and
what consequences for performance result. We summar-
Panel B: Estimates when dependent variable is equally weighted index of behavioral bias proxies

ize unreported (but available on request) evidence on


holdings, holding periods, and returns for the mutual
funds owned by quintiles of investors who score highest
on disposition effect, narrow framing, overconfidence,
Coefficient

 21.175
 2.499

 0.381
 0.622
 0.052
 0.062

 0.055
 0.063
1.441
1.276
0.033
0.016

local bias, preference for lottery stocks, and inattention


to news. Our primary prediction is that severely biased
investors are more likely to select higher expense funds
and avoid index funds. We also expect the strongest
Disposition Effect and Overconfidence Dummy investors
to turn their mutual fund holdings over relatively
frequently.
There is much evidence to support such conjectures.
For example, front-load funds are 27.15% of the mutual
fund holdings of typical investors, but we observe statis-
12 month lagged fund performance: column 1
24 month lagged fund performance: column 2

tically significantly greater front-load fund holdings for


Holding period returns: Panel B, Column 1
Mean monthly returns: Panel A, column 1
Net monthly returns: Panel A, column 2

the highest Disposition Effect (31.05%), Narrow Framing


One-month PTBSD: Panel B, column 3
Four-factor alpha: Panel A, Column 4

(26.69%), and Overconfidence Dummy (30.81%) cohorts.


Net Sharpe ratio: Panel A, column 3

One-year PTBSD: Panel B, column 4


Holding period: Panel B, Column 2

The mutual fund holdings of the highest Local Bias and


Portfolio performance (Table 7)

Inattention Bias investors have, on average, about 2% less


front load funds than typical investors. Holding periods
Front-end load: column 2
Fund turnover: column 3

Trend chasing (Table 6)

for front end load funds are, on average, significantly low


for highest Disposition Effect (215 days) and Overconfi-
Table 9 (continued )

dence Dummy (233 days) investors and are significantly


Regression Type

high for highest Narrow Framing (306 days), Local Bias


(323 days), and Inattention Bias (327 day) investors.
Somewhat similar, but weaker, results are observed for
holdings of back-end load funds and in comparing hold-
ings of index funds and other funds.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 23

Table A1
Brief description of behavioral proxies and other investor characteristics.

Variable Description References Calculation

Disposition Effect Investor’s propensity to sell Shefrin and Statman Proportion of gains realized (PGR) ¼realized
winners too early and hold losers (1985), Odean (1998), and gains/(realized gains þpaper gains). Proportion
too long. Measured by the Kumar and Lim (2008). of losses realized (PLR) ¼realized losses/
proportion of gains realized (realized losses þ paper losses). A peer group of
minus proportion of losses an investor is defined as those in the same
realized, adjusted for the peer quintile of portfolio size, trading frequency and
group’s disposition effect. number of stocks. Adjusted PGR ¼PGR of an
investor – mean PGR of peer group. Adjusted
PLR ¼PLR of an investor – mean PLR in her peer
group. Adjusted disposition effect ¼adjusted
PGR – adjusted PLR.
Narrow Framing Investor’s propensity to select Kahneman and Lovallo Trade clustering ¼ 1 – (number of trades/number
investments individually instead (1993), Kahneman (2003), of trading days). A peer group of an investor is
of considering the broad impact and Kumar and Lim defined as those in the same quintile of portfolio
on her portfolio. Measured by the (2008). size, trading frequency, and number of stocks.
degree of trade clustering, Adjusted trade clustering ¼ trade clustering –
adjusted for the peer group’s mean trade clustering of the peer group.
framing propensity.
Overconfidence Investor’s propensity to trade Odean (1999) and Barber Dummy variable equal to one for investors in
frequently but unsuccessfully. and Odean (2001). the highest portfolio turnover quintile and
Measured with a dummy lowest performance quintile for their individual
variable. common stock trading and zero otherwise. Also
captured by a gender dummy variable equal to
one if the investor is male.
Local Bias Investor’s propensity to select Huberman (2001), Coval Local bias of an investor’s common stock
stocks with headquarters close to and Moskowitz (1999), portfolio ¼ mean distance between her home zip
his geographical location. Grinblatt and Keloharju code and the headquarters’ zip codes of
(2001), Zhu (2003), and companies in her portfolio – mean distance
Ivković and Weisbenner between home zip code and the headquarters’
(2005). zip codes of companies in the market portfolio.
Lottery Stock Preference Investor’s propensity to select Barberis and Huang Investor’s mean portfolio weight (relative to the
stocks with lottery-like features (2008), and Kumar (2009). weight in the market portfolio) assigned to
(low price, volatile returns, and stocks that have bottom quintile prices, top
skewed returns). quintile idiosyncratic volatility, and top quintile
idiosyncratic skewness.
Inattention to Earnings Degree to which investor does New in this paper. 1 – (number of investor trades around the
News not trade a particular individual event)/(total number of investor trades) on days
stock around earnings news. t–1, t, and t þ1 where t is the date of quarterly
earnings announcement from the Institutional
Brokers’ Estimate System (I/B/E/S). Only trades
around each firm’s own earnings news are
considered.
Inattention to Degree to which investor does New in this paper. 1 – (number of investor trades around the
Macroeconomic News not trade any individual stocks event)/(total number of investor trades) on days
around macroeconomic news t–1, t, and t þ1 where t is the date of federal
events. funds target rate changes, Non-Farm Payroll
reports, and producer price index
announcements.
Fund-Level Local Bias Investor’s propensity to select New in this paper. Equals mean distance between the investor’s
funds with headquarters close to home zip code and the headquarters of the
his geographical location. mutual funds in his portfolio – the same mean
distance averaged across all investors in the
sample.
Fund Level Inattention Individual’s propensity to trade New in this paper. Equals 1 - (number of mutual fund trades
mutual funds around around the event)/(total number of mutual fund
macroeconomic news events. trades).
DEnNo December Tax Extent of Disposition Effect for New in this paper. Disposition Effect times dummy variable equal to
Loss Selling investor who ignores tax loss one for investor with no December tax loss
selling. selling.
DEnHigh Income Extent of Disposition Effect for New in this paper. Disposition Effect times High Income Dummy.
investor with high income.
Age Age of the investor. Self-reported. Age of the investor.
Income Income of the investor. Self-reported. Annual income of investor.
High Income Dummy Affluence of the household Graham and Kumar Equals one if the investor’s average income
(2006). exceeds $125,000 and zero otherwise.
Marital Status Marital status of the investor. Self-reported. Equals one if the investor is married and zero
otherwise.
Family Size Family size. Self-reported. Number of family members in the household.
Professional Dummy Self-reported.
24 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

Table A1 (continued )

Variable Description References Calculation

A indicator whether an investor Equals zero for investor in a blue collar


is a white collar or blue collar profession and one otherwise.
worker.
Retired Dummy Retirement status of investor. Self-reported. Equals one if the investor is retired and zero
otherwise.
Investment Experience Investment experience of Self-reported. Years since the brokerage account was open.
investor.
Financial Center Dummy An indicator whether an investor Based on self reported Equals one if the zip code of the investor’s
lives near a financial center. address. address is close to a metropolitan area and zero
otherwise.
Options Dummy An indicator for whether the Based on investment Equals one if the investor executes at least one
investor has ever traded an record. option trade during the sample period and zero
option in the investment account. otherwise.
Short Sale Dummy An indicator for whether the Based on investment Equals one if the investor executes at least one
investor has ever shorted a stock record. short trade during the sample period and zero
in the investment account. otherwise.
Stock Portfolio The extent to which the stock Based on investment Negative of Normalized Portfolio Variance, that is,
Diversification portfolio of the investor is record. the variance of the portfolio of individual
diversified. domestic securities divided by the average
variance of the individual common stocks in the
portfolio.
Stock Portfolio Size The size of the investor’s Based on investment Sample-period average market capitalization of
portfolio. record. the investor’s common stock portfolio.
Stock Portfolio Risk-adjusted excess returns of Based on investment The intercept, alpha, from the Capital Asset
Performance the investor’s stock portfolios. record. Pricing Model regression with the monthly
common stock portfolio return as dependent
variable.
No December Tax Loss An indicator if the investor fails Based on investment 1– proportion of realized losses in December¼1 –
Selling to realized losses of his stock record. (realized losses in December/number of paper
trade in December losses)
Holds Tax-Deferred An indicator for whether the Based on investment Equals one if the investor holds an Individual
Account investor holds a tax deferred record. Retirement Account (IRA) or Keogh account in
account in the brokerage. the brokerage.
Stock Portfolio Market The beta of the investor’s stock Based on investment The loading of the stock portfolio on the market
Factor (Beta) Exposure portfolio. record. factor in a four-factor regression model with
market, size, value, and momentum factors. All
four factors come from Ken French’s website,
(mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/
ken.french/).
Stock Portfolio SMB The loading of the stock portfolio Based on investment The loading of the stock portfolio on the size
Factor (Size) Exposure on the small-minus-big factor record. (SMB) factor in a four-factor regression model
(SMB) in a four-factor model with market, size, value, and momentum
regression. factors. All four factors come from Ken French’s
website.
Stock Portfolio HML The loading of the stock portfolio Based on investment The loading of the stock portfolio on the value
Factor (Value) Exposure on the high-minus-low book-to- record. (HML) factor in a four-factor regression model
market factor (HML) in a four- with market, size, value, and momentum
factor model regression. factors. All four factors come from Ken French’s
website.
Stock Portfolio UMD The loading of the stock portfolio Based on investment The loading of the stock portfolio on the
Factor (Momentum) on the up-minus-down factor record. momentum (UMD) factor in a four-factor
Exposure (UMD) in a four-factor model regression model with market, size, value, and
regression. momentum factors. All four factors come from
Ken French’s website.

6. Summary and conclusions with strong behavioral biases tend to gravitate toward
individual stocks and avoid low expense index funds.
Using thousands of brokerage accounts of US indivi- When they do invest in mutual funds, they tend to
dual investors, we show that behavioral factors influence select high expense funds, trade funds frequently,
the decisions of individual investors to hold individual avoid index funds, and time their buys and sells poorly,
stocks as opposed to mutual funds, including passive thereby damaging their portfolio’s performance. They
index funds. As might be expected, investors with higher also exhibit stronger trend-chasing behavior, suggesting
income, relatively higher educational level, and greater that trend chasing by mutual fund investors is not the
investment experience are more likely to use mutual result of rationally inferring managerial skill from past
funds and benefit from their choices. However, investors performance.
W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27 25

Table A2
Univariate summary statistics on investor characteristics (21,542 observations).

Variable Mean Standard Minimum 10th 25th Median 75th 90th Maximum
deviation percentile percentile percentile percentile

Disposition Effect 3.719 112.197  100.00  100.00  11.111 12.609 66.667 100.000 100.000
Narrow Framing 0.010 0.155  0.683  0.207  0.081 0.038 0.131 0.181 0.440
Overconfidence Dummy 0.090 0.287 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
Male Dummy 0.898 0.282 0.000 0.899 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Local Bias 0.273 0.395  1.323  0.204 0.058 0.272 0.542 0.773 0.996
Lottery Stocks Preference 12.025 17.206 0.000 0.000 0.000 4.265 18.510 33.644 100.000
Inattention to Earnings News 0.057 0.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.087 0.133 0.500
Inattention to Macroeconomic 0.301 0.143 0.000 0.133 0.214 0.292 0.375 0.476 1.000
News
Fund Level Local Bias 0.000 0.703  1.249  0.854  0.468  0.97 0.394 1.015 4.171
Fund Level Inattention 0.303 0.107 0.000 0.250 0.304 0.304 0.304 0.333 1.000
Age 50.429 11.537 18.000 36.000 42.000 52.000 56.000 68.000 94.000
Income 89.358 60.381 7.500 35.000 62.500 87.500 112.500 250.000 250.000
High Income Dummy 0.241 0.427 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
Marital Status 0.736 0.386 0.000 0.000 0.736 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Family Size 2.814 1.417 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 10.000
Professional Dummy 0.610 0.336 0.000 0.000 0.610 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Retired Dummy 0.166 0.256 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.166 0.166 1.000
Investment Experience 9.809 3.190 5.255 5.880 6.915 9.630 12.019 13.964 22.373
Financial Center Dummy 0.327 0.469 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Options Dummy 0.124 0.330 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
Short Sale Dummy 0.138 0.345 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
Stock Portfolio Diversification  0.422 0.135  0.966  0.598  0.514  0.422  0.323  0.245 0.000
Stock Portfolio Size 36.410 98.119 0.001 4.255 7.824 15.326 32.277 71.899 4079.582
Ln(Stock Portfolio Size) 2.797 1.159  7.082 1.448 2.057 2.729 3.474 4.275 8.314
Stock Portfolio Performance  0.378 1.460  11.474  2.111  1.116  0.278 0.468 1.253 6.437
No December Tax Loss Selling 0.818 0.386 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Holds Tax-Deferred Account 0.490 0.500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Market Factor Exposure 1.196 0.557  1.911 0.555 0.850 1.157 1.521 1.895 3.901
SMB Factor Exposure 0.853 1.028  2.163  0.268 0.098 0.675 1.410 2.257 7.810
HML Factor Exposure 0.182 0.838  3.258  0.797  0.359 0.119 0.647 1.269 5.279
UMD Factor Exposure  0.331 0.667  3.898  1.182  0.704  0.267 0.089 0.410 2.986

When we use factor analysis to characterize associa- aspects of individual portfolio allocation decisions. He
tions among investor characteristics, we find interesting speaks of ‘‘sophisticated’’ investors who make decisions
and intuitive patterns along multiple dimensions of bias based on performance and ‘‘disadvantaged’’ investors who
and other characteristics that often crop up in the same are susceptible to sales pressure or constrained by tax or
individual. There is consistency across the behavioral institutional issues. In his presidential address, John
biases, other characteristics, use of individual stocks, use Campbell (2006) suggests that naı̈ve investors could
of mutual funds, and resultant performance that our subsidize sophisticated investors in financial products
Gambler, Smart, Overconfident, Narrow Framer, and such as mortgages. Our results echo the spirit of these
Mature stereotypes display. ideas. A complex set of factors, some rational and some
Our evidence on behavioral biases and mutual fund behavioral, appear to drive investors’ stocks versus funds
clienteles provides a new perspective on puzzles in decisions and their mutual fund choices after they decide
mutual fund investment presented by previous authors. to invest in mutual funds. Some types of investors appear
Several authors trace the mutual fund decisions of indi- to make effective choices that enhance portfolio perfor-
vidual investors to such factors as excess focus on front- mance, while others do not.
end loads, advertising, search costs, and complexity of Given the misuse of equity mutual funds, a public
fund features intended to exploit consumers.30 Our evi- campaign to increase awareness of basic investment
dence shows that investors who score high on behavioral principles and the benefits and pitfalls of equity mutual
biases tend to invest in funds with higher expense ratios funds is likely to help many types of individual investors
and loads. They experience poor investment performance make better decisions. Furthermore, the lack of attention
as a result. to low cost or index funds suggests more explicit dis-
In his American Finance Association presidential closure of fund expenses and turnover, perhaps even as
address, Martin Gruber (1996) notes several puzzling prominent as the health warnings now displayed on
packets of cigarettes. Finally, the reliance of mutual fund
investors on broker-supplied information at the time a
30
See Barber, Odean and Zheng (2005), Hortacsu and Syverson fund is selected and on delegated investment decisions
(2004), and Carlin (2008). afterward suggests that even more explicit disclosure of
26 W. Bailey et al. / Journal of Financial Economics 102 (2011) 1–27

fund characteristics be imposed on brokerage firms and Gil-Bazo, J., Ruiz-Verdu, P., 2009. The relations between price and
fund managers. performance in the mutual fund industry. Journal of Finance 64,
2153–2184.
Goetzmann, W.N., Kumar, A., 2008. Equity portfolio diversification.
Review of Finance 12, 433–463.
Graham, J., Kumar, A., 2006. Do dividend clienteles exist? Evidence on
Appendix A dividend preferences of retail investors. Journal of Finance 61,
1305–1336.
Grinblatt, M., Keloharju, M., 2001. How distance, language, and
Descriptions of behavioral proxies and other investor culture influence stockholdings and trade. Journal of Finance 56,
characteristics can be found in Tables A1. Summary 1053–1073.
statistics on investor characteristics can be found in Gruber, M.J., 1996. Another puzzle: the growth in actively managed
mutual funds. Journal of Finance 51, 783–810.
Tables A2.
Hortacsu, A., Syverson, C., 2004. Product differentiation, search costs,
and competition in the mutual fund industry: a case study of S&P
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