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Marijuana Stock Investing Report
Marijuana Stock Investing Report
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FREE REPORT
The Highs and Lows of Marijuana Stocks
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Aphria Inc….………………………………………………………………..…..……….. 5
AbbVie Inc…………………………………………………………………...…..…….… 8
Altria Group……………………………………………………………..…..……..…..… 9
Loblaw Cos…………………………..…………………………………..…………..…... 9
PepsiCo……………………………………………………………………..……...…… 10
Investor Bonus: “Pot o’ Gold” (POG) Spam Emails and Cannabis Stocks…...………….....….. 11
Share prices for many Canadian marijuana stocks have soared since mid-2016—although most
have now given back some of those gains.
The speculative appeal of Canadian marijuana stocks continues to attract investors looking for a
“ground-floor opportunity.” However, the pioneers in an industry are not always the ones who
survive.
There are also low barriers to entry for new competitors—and those barriers just got lower with
the announcement by the federal government that it will let large cannabis producers start
growing crops outdoors.
That introduces a new, cheaper supply of marijuana that will compete with established indoor
producers who have invested billions in greenhouses and other indoor facilities.
The government feels the new source of supply will help supress the illegal black market for
cannabis. Established indoor producers lobbied against outdoor growing, citing the risk of theft,
contamination from pesticides from adjacent fields and the pungent smell of cannabis plants
during flowering.
But the big issue for indoor producers like Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis and Aphria (see
below) is that the outdoor cannabis is estimated to cost less than $0.25 a gram to grow, while
marijuana produced in a warehouse costs and average of about $2 a gram. In greenhouses,
companies are growing cannabis for about $1 a gram.
Longer term, if demand grows large and profitable enough, major agricultural and drug
companies, as well as tobacco firms, are likely to enter the field and take sales away from
existing growers.
Shares of many marijuana stocks may move higher as momentum traders buy the widely
followed stocks on the latest upswing. However considering their current sales, many Canadian
producers have very high “market caps” (the value of all shares outstanding). That means they
need huge revenue growth even to justify their current stock prices. If revenues merely hold
steady or rise only slowly, their stock prices will be vulnerable.
All in all, we suspect that few of today’s cannabis stocks will turn into profitable companies, and
some may wind up worth much less than today.
Note, too, that strong investor interest in any new area also attracts penny stock spammers—and
marijuana stocks are no exception. The upcoming market boom following legalization could
On October 23, 2018, the company’s shares also began trading on the New York exchange under
symbol ACB.
Aurora Cannabis is currently the second largest cannabis firm in the world by market
capitalization (after Canopy Growth).
The company aims to become a global leader in the cannabis industry, with a wide and diverse
product line. To do this, it is following an aggressive strategy of acquisitions, partnerships, and
investments in production. These include the following:
Canvas Rx, a wholly owned subsidiary of Aurora, is a Canadian network of cannabis counselling
and outreach centres. To date, CanvasRx has assisted over 42,200 patients.
In May 2017, it acquired Pedanios GmbH of Germany, a leading wholesale importer, exporter,
and distributor of medical cannabis for European Union markets.
In May 2018, Aurora completed its acquisition of CanniMed Therapeutics Inc. for $1.1 billion.
CanniMed produces cannabis oil for the medical market.
In May 2018, the company announced the takeover of rival producer MedReleaf for $3.2 billion
in Aurora Cannabis shares. The transaction added two grow facilities.
In August 2018, Aurora announced its intention to acquire HotHouse Consulting Inc., a
greenhouse consulting business with an emphasis on large-scale cannabis production.
Also in August 2018, the company acquired Anandia Laboratories Inc., a global leader in
cannabis science (genetics, breeding) and analytical product testing.
In September 2018, Aurora entered into an agreement to acquire ICC Labs Inc. for $290 million.
ICC is a leading, low-cost cannabis producer in South America.
Again in September 2018, the company acquired Europe’s largest producer, processor and
supplier of certified organic hemp and hemp products, Agropro UAB. Aurora also purchased
hemp processor and distributor Borela UAB for $6.3 million.
Now that recreational cannabis is legal in Canada, as of October 17, 2018, Aurora has supply
agreements with several provincial governments, including Ontario, Alberta, B.C. and Quebec.
In most cases, that means its product will be available through government-run stores and
licenced private sellers.
It also has supply agreements with private medical marijuana sellers. For example, in April 2018,
the company entered into a supply deal with Pharmasave, a network of over 650 independently-
owned pharmacies across Canada. Shoppers Drug Mart has signed a similar deal with Aurora
Cannabis. These deals are pending Health Canada approval.
Aurora Cannabis holds cash of $147.8 million. The company is one of the few cannabis
companies that have been able to arrange traditional bank financing. This means Aurora
Cannabis’ financing costs should be lower on average than its competitors. Its long-term debt is
$289.2 million.
Aurora Cannabis is a speculative buy for aggressive investors who want exposure to the
marijuana industry.
Aphria Inc.
Aphria Inc., $9.67, symbol APH on Toronto (Shares outstanding: 250.2 million; Market cap:
$2.4 billion; www.aphria.com), is a licensed producer of medical marijuana based in
Leamington, Ontario. Not only does it sell to retail patients, it also sells to other Canadian
licensed producers.
The company moved to the Toronto exchange from the TSX Venture Exchange in March 2017.
The company has a portfolio of medical and recreational brands, including Solei Sungrown
Cannabis, RIFF, Good Supply, and Goodfields. It also has a presence in more than 10 countries
across five continents.
Aphria continues to expand its production facilities (all in Leamington, Ontario) and will soon be
capable of producing more than 225,000 kilograms of cannabis annually. It has invested in
automation in order to maintain a low-cost advantage and to avoid the labour shortage that is
beginning to affect the industry.
In March 2018, the company announced it was building a $55 million cannabis-oil extraction
facility in Leamington. To help pay for the facility, it raised $225 million in a June 6, 2018 share
offering.
Aphria’s acquisitions include paying $217 million in February 2018 for Broken Coast Cannabis
Ltd. That production facility is located in Vancouver and grows the premium brand BC Bud.
In March 2018, it also paid $425 million for Nuuvera Inc., a global cannabis producer and seller
with operations in Germany, Italy, Spain, Malta, and Lesotho.
In August 2018, Aphria announced a joint venture with Perennial, a retail brand management
company, to develop new cannabis-infused products and brands for the Canadian market.
The company holds cash of $314.0 million, or $1.26 a share. Its long-term debt is just $52.0
million.
Aphria’s growth by acquisition adds risk. However, it has low-cost production facilities, national
and global supply agreements, and a portfolio of brands. They should benefit from its
collaboration with Perennial.
We don’t recommend Aphria Inc. for conservative investors. But the stock is okay to hold
for highly aggressive investors who want exposure to the marijuana industry.
It remains difficult to say which marijuana growers will prosper and which will not. More certain
is that overall demand for cannabis—for both medicinal and recreational use—will continue to
expand. One way for investors to cut risk is to look for firms that will benefit from industry
growth no matter which producers thrive.
Here are two ETFs that aim to benefit from the potential profitability of the cannabis industry.
For investors who want exposure to marijuana markets, these ETFs partially cut the risk of
uncertain long-term outlooks for cannabis producers. Still, each fund is a hold only for highly
aggressive investors betting on the continued momentum of marijuana growers.
The fund tracks the North American Marijuana Index. Canadian companies make up 80% of the
portfolio, the U.S. 12%, and the U.K. 8%. The ETF invests in cannabis growers as well as bio-
pharmaceutical companies and support firms such as lighting technology and fertilizer
companies.
Despite its 40 different stocks, the ETF's holdings are still highly concentrated in growers: four
of those make up 42.4% of its assets.
The ETF's top five holdings are Canopy Growth (Canada, 13.3%), Aurora Cannabis (Canada,
11.0%), GW Pharmaceuticals (U.K., 10.1%), Cronos Group (Canada, 9.7%) and Tilray (Canada,
8.7%).
The ETF launched in April 2017. It charges a relatively high MER of 0.75%, but has a
reasonable size. It yields 7.0%.
The fund has declined 23.5% over the last year, while the broad-based S&P/TSX Composite
Index fell 7.1%.
The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF is okay to hold only for highly aggressive investors
willing to accept the risks of investing in cannabis and cannabis-related stocks.
ETFMG ALTERNATIVE HARVEST ETF $30.98 (New York symbol MJ; TSINetwork ETF
Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $570.7 million) invests in companies that are engaged in the
legal production and sale of cannabis for medical or recreational purposes.
The fund invests globally, although the bulk of its assets are held in Canada (62%) and the U.S.
(24%). Industry exposure is mainly to Pharmaceuticals (64%), Tobacco (17%) and
Biotechnology (8%).
The ETF started up in December 2015. Its MER is a high 0.75% and the fund's size and its
average $9.4 million in units traded daily provide reasonable liquidity.
The fund pays a fluctuating dividend, for a current yield of 2.2%. The units have dropped 18.1%
over the last 12 months, compared to a decline of 7.1% for the S&P 500 Index.
The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF is okay to hold only for highly aggressive investors
willing to accept the risks of investing in cannabis and cannabis-related stocks.
But what is certain is that overall marijuana demand and production will keep expanding rapidly.
So we think a far better way to profit is with firms that will profit no matter which producers
thrive. At the same time, they already have a solid base of other business, sound prospects—and
the added appeal of a sustainable dividend.
AbbVie Inc.
AbbVie Inc., $93.61, symbol ABBV on Nasdaq (Shares outstanding: 1.6 billion; Market cap:
$147.8 billion; www.abbvie.com) is a pharmaceutical company that already has a cannabis-based
drug approved by the U.S. Food & Drug Adminstration (FDA).
The drug is called Marinol, and it’s made out of a synthetic form of tetrahydrocannabinol, or
THC, a primary component of cannabis.
Marinol relieves nausea and vomiting in patients undergoing cancer chemotherapy. The
treatment is also used for AIDS patients who have lost their appetites. It was the first U.S. FDA-
approved cannabis drug.
While Marinol represents only a small part of AbbVie’s total current revenue, it’s a strong
foothold in the expanding future market for marijuana-related drugs. The stock yields a high
4.1%.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, $83.75, symbol SMG on New York (Shares outstanding: 55.4
million; Market cap: $4.6 billion; www.scottsmiraclegrow.com) manufactures, markets, and sells
consumer lawn and garden products worldwide.
In 2013, the company’s CEO Jim Hagedorn decided to branch out into offering products for
marijuana growers.
Right now, hydroponics represent roughly 4% of the company’s sales, but those sales should rise
as more U.S. states legalize marijuana. As well, Scotts has acquired Sunlight Supply Inc., the top
U.S. distributor of hydroponics products, for $450 million. Scotts will now serve 1,800
hydroponic retailer customers in the U.S. Sunlight has nine distribution facilities across North
America.
Altria Group
Altria Group, $56.46, symbol MO on New York (Shares outstanding: 1.9 billion; Market cap:
$105.7 billion; www.altria.com) is the parent company of Philip Morris USA, John Middleton
and Philip Morris Capital Corp. The company operates in two main segments: Cigarettes (86%
of operating profits) include Marlboro, Benson & Hedges, Merit and Virginia Slims; and
smokeless products (14%).
Altria is well-placed to expand in to marijuana distribution and marketing. This could include
pre-rolled marijuana joints, or replacing nicotine liquid in e-cigarettes with tetrahydrocannabinol
(THC) liquid, the main chemical component found in marijuana.
The market for marijuana presents a big growth opportunity for tobacco firms. They continue to
face declining demand for traditional tobacco products in many of their core markets. As a result,
they’re now investing in smoking alternatives such as electronic cigarettes, although growing
regulatory control makes unclear their growth potential.
Altria already operates in the tightly regulated cigarette industry, and could easily adapt to a
similarly regulated marijuana industry. The stock yields a high 5.0%.
Loblaw Cos.
Loblaw Cos., $67.30, symbol L on Toronto (Shares outstanding: 379.1 million; Market cap:
$25.6 billion; www.loblaw.ca) operates over 1,084 supermarkets across Canada. But most
important for the marijuana industry, it also operates 1,335 Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacies
across the country.
In 2016, Shoppers Drug Mart applied for a Health Canada licence to dispense medical marijuana.
Shoppers Drug Mart has lined up supply deals with several licensed medical marijuana
producers, including Aurora Cannabis and Aphria—although the deals are subject to Health
The company thinks it will have an edge in gaining the right to sell marijuana, because it will
give patients a chance to seek medical advice if needed, rather than just purchasing the drug.
Loblaw is also open to getting involved in the sale of recreational marijuana.
PepsiCo
PepsiCo, $108.80, symbol PEP on New York (Shares outstanding: 1.4 billion; Market cap:
$155.3 billion; www.pepsico.com) is the world’s second-largest soft-drink maker after Coca-
Cola. Its other brands include Frito-Lay snack foods, Gatorade sports drinks, Tropicana
fruit juices and Quaker Oats cereals.
PepsiCo continues to launch new drinks and snacks with less sugar, salt and fat. Those “guilt-
free” products now account for roughly 45% of the company’s total sales.
We’re stretching the link between Pepsico and marijuana here—but of special interest to
smokers is the company’s range of crave-quenching Frito-Lay snack foods—including its
“Munchies” brand.
Now that legalization is approaching, we could see another surge in marijuana penny-stock
promotions
These days, it’s faster and easier than ever to launch a stock promotion, thanks to the Internet.
One recent “penny pot” cannabis stock scam almost seems like an MBA-style case study on how
to launch one of these frauds online.
Techniques used in POG emails:
One group of emails seems to be misdirected personal communications—one friend
tipping off another to a good thing in the stock market.
Another group carries the names and logos of legitimate news sources like Bloomberg
News and the Fox Business Network, and/or legitimate financial companies such as TD
Ameritrade and Scottrade.
Many carry identical or near-identical messages that tout the stock, but appear to come
from a variety of senders.
Many of these emails carry blocks of random text printed in light grey or off-white. This
is a spammer technique for outwitting anti-spam software. By adding random text to the
emails, the spammers lower the proportion of spam-like words and symbols, hoping to
stop anti-spam software or search engines from detecting the spam and consigning it to
the junk email folder.
The third element in our strategy is crucial to avoiding stock scams. These scams focus on
companies that have nothing to recommend them, other than a connection with some trend or the
development of an industry that is getting a lot of media attention. It takes a lot more than that to
create a profitable business or investment. But if you let the media limelight direct your
investment decisions, you increase your risk of blundering into a promotional stock such as a
POG.
2. Stock Pickers Digest—If you like the idea of “a conservative approach to aggressive investing”,
this advisory has Canadian and U.S. stocks with escalating growth potential.
3. Wall Street Stock Forecaster—Your portfolio is much stronger with at least 20% in U.S.
stocks—and this special advisory covers the 70 best U.S. stocks for Canadians.
4. Canadian Wealth Advisor—A ‘safety-first’ advisory offering you the best conservative strategies
based on well-established Canadian dividend stocks, ETFs and REITs.
5. TSI Dividend Advisor—In this advisory, our exclusive Dividend Sustainability Ratings® will
change the way you look at dividend stocks—and the way you invest in them.
6. Spinoffs, Takeovers & Special Situations—If you’d like “the closest thing to a sure thing in
investing,” this advisory on spinoffs and other special opportunities is utterly unique.
7. The Best ETFs for Canadian Investors—This ground-breaking publication shows you how to
get the best results with ETFs as these investments explode in popularity.
In 2002, Pat founded his Inner Circle, offering investors more personal attention, plus access to his four
original publications. Members can ask Pat personal investment questions. They also get his
commentaries and answers to questions posed by other Inner Circle Members. In 2017 he launched Inner
Circle Pro, an advanced group that receives all seven of his newsletters.
Through Successful Investor Wealth Management, Pat and his team manage over $700 million for
individual Canadian investors. Free of comprising ties to brokerages, with no hidden costs or
commissions, the team charts an independent course for clients. For the past 18 years the portfolios they
manage for clients have enjoyed an uncommonly high annual average return.
You will find more information on all of these services at www.tsinetwork.ca.