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Economic DataWatch - Employment
Economic DataWatch - Employment
Economic DataWatch - Employment
TH
HE E
EMPPLO
OYMMENNT
SIITU
UATION
N
1555 North #102
hPark Drive #
3326
Weston, Florida 33
ndcompany.com
www..horowitzan
00 f 954‐349‐‐1414
p 954‐349‐080
Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%)
12 11%
10% 9.6%
10
9%
8
8%
6
7%
4
6%
2 5%
0 4%
Change in Payrolls Non-Farm MoM (000's) Manufacturing MoM (000's) Average Hourly Work Week Avg. Weekly Hours
Private MoM (000's)
500 35
400 34.8
300
0.3% 2.5%
0%
0.2% 2.0% -2%
0.1% 1.5% -4%
0.0% 1.0% -6%
-8%
-0.1% 0.5%
-10%
-0.2% 0.0%
Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
Continuing Claims
6000 600
Initial Claims
5500 550
480
5000 500
460 4500 450
4000 400
440
3500 350
3000 300
420
2500 250
400 2000 200
ADP's Change in Private Payrolls ADP Payrolls Change in Payrolls (MoM) BLS - Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Payrolls
400
400
200
200
0
0
Thousands
-200
-200
-400 -400
-600 -600
-800 -800
Employment / Population Ratio Employment / Population Ratio (%) Non-Farm Payroll Diffusion Non-Farm Diffusion
80
66
70
64
60
62 50
40
60
30
58
20
56 10
0
54
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
1998
2001
2001
2004
2005
2007
2007
2008
2002
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2010
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company
Extended Benefits
Employment Cost Index ECI YoY% Unemployment Claims Emergency Benefits
Continuing Claims
4.5 12
Millions
4
10
3.5
3 8
2.5
6
2
1.5 4
1
2
0.5
0 0
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2009
2010
Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation
68% 68.0%
66% 67.5%
67.0%
64%
66.5%
62% 66.0%
60% 65.5%
58% 65.0%
64.5%
56%
64.0%
54% 63.5%
52% 63.0%
1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
-600 6%
-700
4%
-800
N
Notice and Discla
aimer
TThis material is provided for inform mation only and is not intended aas a recommendaation or an offer oor solicitation forr the purchase or sale of any
ssecurity or financcial instrument. TThis material is noot a complete analysis of all material facts respect ing any issuer, industry or security or of your
investment objecctives, parameterrs, needs or financial situation, and therefore is nott a sufficient basiis alone on which h to base an invesstment
ddecision. Horowittz & Company an nd its affiliates maay have positionss (long or short), eeffect transactionns or make markeets in securities oor financial
instruments mentioned herein (orr options with resspect thereto), orr provide advice o or loans to, or paarticipate in the u
underwriting or reestructuring
oof the obligationss of, issuers menttioned herein. M Moreover, a Horow witz & Company ttrading desk mayy have acted on tthe basis of this m material.
TThe information ccontained herein is as of the date and time referen nced above and H Horowitz & Comppany does not un ndertake any obliggation to
uupdate such inforrmation. All markket prices, data and other informaation are not warranted as to com mpleteness or accuracy and are subject to
cchange without n notice. Past perfo ormance is not ind dicative of future
e results. The inveestments discusseed may fluctuatee in price or valuee. Changes
in rates of exchan nge may have an adverse effect on n the value of invvestments. Transaactions involvingg financial instrum ments mentioned d herein may
nnot be suitable foor all investors