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BCE Research Primer

BI Telecom Carriers, North America Dashboard
John Butler Boyoung Kim

Team: Telecom Team: Telecom
BI Senior Industry Analyst BI Associate Analyst
1. BI Company Research Primer: BCE
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- COMPANY THESIS: Table of Contents

BCE is well-positioned for wireline and wireless Financial Review Key Research
revenue growth as it builds out its fiber network
Earnings NEW Wireless Drives Overall Growth
amid healthy demand in Canada. The company Financial Trends NEW Fiber Boosts Wireline Growth
jump-started its fiber expansion with the Media Pressured by Weak TV Ads
acquisition of Manitoba Telecom in 2017. BCE will BCE Funds Dividend Increases
continue to add more homes to its fiber footprint, 5G to Emerge After Mid-2020
which had 1.2 million connections at the end of
2018, in a bid to drive broadband internet and IPTV subscriber gains. Fiber assets can also be shared with the
wireless network, which should yield lower capital intensity and improved free cash flow generation, even as the
Canadian telecom market matures. (02/07/19)
Financial Review
Earnings
2. BCE's Fiber Build Fuels Growth, Capex Savings: Earnings Outlook
Post-4Q Earnings Outlook: BCE's fiber build-out has positioned the company for accelerated growth in wireline
subscribers and Ebitda in 2019. BCE should be able to generate greater broadband internet and IPTV market-
share gains, as it adds fiber connections and increases penetration within its existing footprint. The launch of the
Lucky prepaid brand has improved the trajectory of the wireless business, though postpaid still dominates
segment results. BCE's federal government contract should buoy postpaid net adds through 1H.
The use of fiber in both its wireline and wireless operations will allow BCE to execute on its plans at a lower capital
intensity. Together with targeted adjusted Ebitda growth of 2-4% in 2019, BCE should be able to meet its
guidance for 3-7% growth in free cash flow, excluding IFRS 16 impact. (02/07/19)
Highlights From Recent Results:

Wireline Sales Rose 2.4% in 4Q on Net Adds of 29,627 for High-
Speed Internet and 36,473 for IPTV | BI »
Wireless Revenue Rose 4.5% Year-Over-Year in 4Q on a 2.2%
Increase in Services and 10.4% Gain in Products From Higher
Equipment Sales | BI »
4Q Postpaid Net Adds of 121,780, Down From 175,204 in 4Q17, as
BCE Lapped Federal Contract Customer Loading | BI »
Media Revenue Up 1.9% in 4Q on Strength in Sports and Outdoor
Advertising Sales | FA »
Additional Resources:
Analyzer | BI »
Earnings Release | NSN »
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Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
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Financial Trends
3. BCE's Sales Growth Falls on Tough Comps, But Fiber Aids Margin
BCE's revenue growth will moderate in 2019 on tough year-over-year comparisons as it laps the onboarding of
MTS subscribers in 2018. Still, we expect BCE's wireline and wireless revenue to grow this year. BCE plans to
expand its fiber footprint beyond 1.2 million connections as of year-end, which should translate to broadband
internet and IPTV subscriber gains. BCE should be able to expand its wireless subscriber base in 1H, fueled partly
by the addition of federal government employees, while its ARPU is expected to rise on heavy mobile-data usage.
The growth in BCE's higher-priced, fiber-based services and postpaid data plans are accretive to margins, helping
to offset costs associated with its network-expansion activity. BCE's adjusted Ebitda margin should expand in
2019, even after adjusting for an impact from IFRS 16. (02/11/19)
Segment Revenue (C$), Adjusted Ebitda Margin (%)
Source: Company Filings
Key Research
Wireless Drives Overall Growth
Canadian Wireless Market Still Expanding, Driving BCE's Growth
BCE's wireless revenue has been driven by rising data consumption and organic subscriber growth in Canada.
These trends should persist in 2019, but increasing promotional activity will likely mute the positive impact on
average-revenue-per-user growth. (01/24/19)
4. Organic Subscriber Growth to Fuel Wireless Gains
BCE is poised for strong 2019 wireless subscriber gains, in our view, as Canada's market continues to grow.
BCE's wireless subscriber base increased 5.3% year-over-year to 9.5 million in 3Q. The relatively low wireless
penetration rate in Canada at 89.2% in 2018 vs. the U.S. at 136.7% (according to Ovum) suggests further room
for growth in the Canadian market, which should help BCE sustain expansion in its subscriber base.
The company has also benefited from a healthy economic backdrop in Canada as well as immigration-driven
population growth. Its new prepaid brand, Lucky Mobile, should help fuel further gains, as the company builds its
share in the prepaid market, which has historically been dominated by BCE’s rival, Rogers. (01/24/19)
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
BCE Wireless Revenue Growth (% YoY)
5. Mobile-Video Consumption Driving ARPU Growth
BCE should be able to expand its wireless revenue and ARPU in 2019, thanks to growing mobile-video
consumption, which should help offset any pressure from promotional activity in the market. Mobile video
accounted for 60.1% of all mobile-data traffic in 2018 and is expected to increase by a factor of almost 5x in 2018-
23 to 72.8% of total mobile-data traffic. BCE can continue to monetize this trend by offering larger, more-
expensive data plans, while its ARPU growth in 1Q18-3Q18 will be partly weighed down by the influx of lower-rate
federal government subscribers. (01/24/19)
Mobile Data Traffic, Video % of Total
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report
6. Investment in Spectrum to Continue
BCE invested heavily in spectrum in 2014 and 2015 to improve its network and stay ahead of surging mobile-data
growth. In February 2014, the company spent C$565.7 million on 700-MHz licenses covering most of Canada. In
2015, it acquired AWS-3 spectrum for C$499.9 million and 2.5 GHz for C$29 million in several key markets.
These deals built on BCE's existing AWS-1, cellular and PCS holdings, leaving it well-positioned to support data
and subscriber growth.
BCE will likely deploy excess free cash flow to acquire additional spectrum in upcoming auctions in Canada. It
applied to buy 600 MHz in Canada's 2019 auction and may bid for 3.5 GHz in 2020 and mmWave thereafter. This
spectrum is expected to sell at a premium given the carriers' need to expand network capacity for 5G. (01/24/19)
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
Canada Wireless Network Comparison
Source: OpenSignal, State of Mobile Networks: Canada (February 2018)
Fiber Boosts Wireline Growth
BCE Expanding Its Fiber Footprint to Sustain Wireline Growth
BCE's expansion of its fiber footprint should help to fuel sustained growth in its wireline revenue, letting the
company offer high-speed, premium-priced services to more customers. BCE aims to increase the penetration of
its fiber internet services by bundling them with a discounted TV subscription. Last reviewed by John Butler on
01/09/19, original publish: (08/30/18)
7. Strong Internet Growth Led by Fiber Expansion
BCE's fiber network buildout effort is aimed at expanding its high-speed Internet (HSI) subscriber base. In 2017,
BCE added 305,584 net new HSI subscribers on fiber, according to Ovum, up from 73,584 in 2016. The company
should sustain this momentum as it adds more fiber connections, with a goal of reaching 4.5 million businesses
and homes-passed by the end of 2018 vs. 3.8 million at the end of 2017.
BCE's fiber-expansion effort also creates an opportunity to boost its average revenue per user by letting it offer
premium services to more markets. This may be impeded in select regions such as Toronto, where competition
and promotional pricing are an issue. Still, BCE will likely have first-mover advantage in most markets, given it had
an almost 60% share of Canada's fiber broadband subscriptions as of year-end 2017. (08/30/18)
2017 Fiber Broadband-Subscription Share in Canada
8. Acquisitions Accelerate Broadband Growth
Acquisitions have been central to BCE's broadband growth strategy, as they've let the company rapidly expand its
fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and IPTV footprint. In 2014, BCE doubled the size of its FTTH and IPTV coverage with
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
the purchase of the remaining portion of Bell Aliant it didn't already own. In March 2017, BCE expanded into
Manitoba with the acquisition of MTS, which added 229,470 high-speed internet subscribers and 108,107 IPTV
users. These acquisitions let BCE's subscriber base stay ahead of Rogers and Telus and compete against cable
operators. (08/30/18)
BCE's Fiber-to-the-Premises Buildout Plan
9. Bundled TV Discounts to Drive Fiber Upgrades
BCE offers discounted TV and fiber internet bundles designed to entice customers to upgrade to fiber-based
services. Alt TV, an app-based TV service that launched in 1Q17 for just C$15, can only be purchased as part of
a bundle with a fiber-based internet subscription. The company also discounts Fibe TV and broadband packages
where bundling isn't required. All of its offers are aimed at getting users to upgrade to higher-priced broadband
plans with the goal of driving multi-product subscriptions and maximizing revenue per user.
Stand-alone TV services are contributing to an increase in BCE's revenue as satellite losses stabilize. The
addition of new TV subscribers, fueled by IPTV gains, should translate into revenue growth, given IPTV and
satellite packages are equal in price. (08/30/18)
BCE's Alt TV Subscriptions as of Aug. 24
10. BCE Gets Wireline Boost With Deals for SuperNet, Axia NetMedia
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
BCE's multiyear contract awarded in July to operate SuperNet broadband network services for the government of
Alberta added new subscribers and helped fuel 3.9% year-over-year growth in the company's wireline-data
service revenue in 1Q-3Q. As part of the agreement, BCE also acquired Axia NetMedia in September and took
ownership of SuperNet's broadband network assets in 402 rural communities and 27 urban areas. The addition of
broadband network assets created new opportunities to sell Bell Business Markets solutions in security, data
centers and unified communications to Alberta-based enterprise customers, which should help generate more
wireline revenue gains. (01/09/19)
BCE's Wireline Revenue, % Year-Over-Year Growth
Media Pressured by Weak TV Ads
Bell Media Pressured by Weak TV Ad Market, Rising Content Costs
The media segment, which represented 13.6% of Bell Media's total revenue in 2017, has been dented by
weakness in the legacy TV and radio advertising markets. The growth in over-the-top subscription services should
offset some of the pressure in Bell's legacy-media ad sales, while rising content costs will continue to weigh on
Bell's margins. (08/29/18)
11. Bell Media Sales Dragged by Weak Ad Spending
Bell Media's significant exposure to legacy TV and radio platforms is weighing on its growth outlook, as weakness
in ad spending is expected to persist. The company needs to focus on expanding its digital content, particularly in
mobile, in order to offset the negative effects of the shift to digital-ad spending and declining traditional media
viewership. Bell Media owns 200 websites and 30 applications, which were not enough to compensate for the
secular downturn in legacy TV and radio ad spending, as Bell Media's sales fell again in 2Q. (08/29/18)
Advertising Spending in Canada
12. OTT Drives Bell Media's Subscription Revenue
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
Bell Media is looking to expand its subscription revenue to partly offset falling advertising sales as the company
now offers over-the-top (OTT) apps and live sports streaming options, along with its legacy media properties. Bell
Media's OTT assets, including Crave TV, CTV Go, Discovery Go, TMN Go, TSN Go and RDS Direct, drove a
1.9% year-over-year increase in subscription revenue in 2Q. The demand for its OTT services should also help to
buoy advertising sales, as a few of these platforms, including CTV Movies and CTV Vault, are advertiser-
supported.
Still, the rising cost of content and sports broadcasting rights continue to weigh on Bell's margins. The company's
adjusted Ebitda margin in its media business fell to 23.1% in 2017, from 24.1% in 2016 and 24.3% in 2015.
(08/29/18)
Canada Paid Over-the-Top Video Subscriptions
BCE Funds Dividend Increases
BCE to Fund Dividend Increases on Ebitda Growth and Stable Capex
BCE expects its free cash flow (FCF) to increase by 3-7% in 2018, which is constructive to future dividend
increases given a targeted payout ratio of 65-75%. We expect BCE's FCF growth to continue, fueled by gains in
wireless and wireline revenue. The company's capital spending is expected to remain stable, despite ongoing
investments in broadening its fiber footprint. (08/31/18)
13. Capital Intensity in 17% Range on Fiber Network Build
BCE expects to maintain its capital intensity in the 17% range in 2018, as it continues to expand its fiber
broadband and LTE-advanced wireless networks. The company's wireline spending may rise slightly this year as
it adds 800,000 homes and businesses to its fiber-to-the-premise footprint vs. 700,000 in 2017. Wireless capital
intensity should ease to 8-9% in 2018 vs. 9.3% in 2017, with the company's LTE Advanced network expansion
now nearly compete. The 2018 analysts' estimate for BCE's capital intensity is 17.2%, down from 17.7% in 2017,
reflecting a 2.9% sales increase and roughly flat capital spending.
Wireline is BCE's most capital-intensive segment at 25.6% in 2017, well above the company’s 17.7% total and the
9.2% for wireless. The capital intensity in the media segment is just 4.2%. (08/31/18)
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
BCE Capital Intensity
14. Free Cash Flow Target Suggests Dividend Increases
BCE expects its free cash flow to increase 3-7% in 2018, buoyed by growth in adjusted Ebitda and lower
acquisition costs. Continuing strength in wireless subscriber and ARPU gains, along with improvements in BCE's
wireline business, driven by its fiber network expansion, are expected to fuel adjusted Ebitda growth of 2-4% in
2018, according to company forecasts. This should support BCE's wireless and broadband network-expansion
projects and still drive a 3-7% increase in free cash flow this year.
The company maintains a target dividend-payout ratio of 65-75% of free cash flow, which suggests that it can
continue to fund dividend increases. BCE's dividend on a per-share basis was up 5.2% year-over-year to $1.52 in
1H. (08/31/18)
BCE Dividends Per Share (C$)
5G to Emerge After Mid-2020
Canadian Carriers’ 5G Debut Not Until 2020 as 4G Growth Persists
Canadian wireless carriers will invest in small-cell densification and spectrum over the next 18 months in
preparation for the debut of 5G in mid-2020, but we think incremental capital spending will be modest, given
existing equipment is compatible with 5G. Carriers should continue to enjoy healthy 4G wireless growth ahead of
the 5G debut. (01/28/19)
15. Canadian Carriers to Launch 5G in Mid-2020
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
Canadian wireless carriers are poised to introduce commercial 5G services in mid-2020, which would trail the 2H
launch in the U.S., led by Verizon and AT&T. The Canadian wireless market still offers solid organic subscriber
growth, as increasing data usage drives user-revenue increases. BCE, Rogers, Telus and Shaw's Freedom
Mobile should continue to generate wireless revenue growth from 4G services, making the transition to 5G less
urgent. Canada's delayed 5G deployment timeline can also be attributed to the country's relatively rigid regulatory
structure and to the fact that its 5G spectrum auctions are still pending.
Current capital spending levels reflect the carriers’ investments in both 4G and 5G, as they proactively run fiber-
to-cell sites and install equipment that is software-upgradeable to 5G. (01/28/19)
Canada 4G and 5G Mobile-Subscription Forecast
Source: Ovum
16. Deployment of 5G in 2020 Is More Prudent Than Late
The later launch of 5G by Canadian carriers relative to their global peers is prudent, in our view, as they will be
able to take advantage of more-developed 5G specifications that will have been finalized in The 3rd Generation
Partnership Project's (3GPPs) Release 16 by year-end. Canadian carriers will also likely benefit from lower costs
of equipment, such as small cells, as they roll out their networks later in the technology cycle. A 2020 launch will
also present carriers with a broader array of 5G devices, which will likely include flagship models and more well-
defined use cases. This should result in faster adoption and monetization of new services. (01/28/19)
Canada Debuts 5G After Use Cases and Devices Arise
Source: IDC, Ericsson, Bloomberg Intelligence
17. Regulation Not Conducive to Small-Cell Builds
The regulatory framework in Canada will continue to present carriers with time and cost hurdles to small-cell
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
deployment. The Canadian Telecommunications Act, which grants carriers a statutory right to build wireline
networks on streets and public networks, does not offer the same privileges to wireless networks. This has led to
months and even years of delay in small-cell placements.
Carriers will continue to lobby to reform the regulatory-approval process to prepare for the deployment of
mmWave (millimeter wave) spectrum, which will likely be auctioned in 2021. Strides taken by the FCC in 2018,
such as the implementation of application shot clocks, are serving as progressive models that could help Canada
facilitate small-cell builds for carriers. (01/28/19)
Canada Could Adopt U.S. FCC Rules to Facilitate 5G
18. Shaw’s Cable Asset Key to 5G Densification
Freedom Mobile's wireless subscriber growth is likely to gain momentum after it launches 5G services, as it
should be able to build on Shaw's cable assets and outpace rivals in densifying its network. Shaw has 100,000
WiFi locations throughout Canada that Freedom can use to site small cell nodes. In contrast, BCE has only 4,000
locations. In the absence of WiFi sites and municipal regulations to facilitate the placement of small cells, Telus,
BCE and Rogers could struggle to densify their networks ahead of the launch of 5G in 2020. This would give
Shaw a relative advantage, allowing it to gain subscriber share. (01/28/19)
Shaw Gaining Wireless Subscriber Share in Canada
Source: Ovum
19. Rural Fixed-Wireless Push Bids to Keep 3.5 GHz
BCE discussed its growth in 4G rural fixed-wireless subscribers at the 5G Canada conference on Jan. 23, and
emphasized plans to deploy 5G fixed-wireless services in the future. This narrative likely reflects the company's
desire to keep its current 3.5 GHz allocation, which is designated only for fixed-wireless usage. The government
may require BCE and other current 3.5 GHz licensees, such as Rogers, to return a portion of their holdings to
provide opportunity for additional licensees to deploy 5G services.
In our view, a larger growth opportunity resides in deploying enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) services in
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
densely populated urban areas, rather than rural settings. Once the Canadian government declares the status of
its 3.5 GHz spectrum, BCE may begin to ramp up its wireless capital spending on more eMBB. (01/28/19)
Government Filing
"The value of the 3500 MHz band has increased significantly with the
introduction of the mobile allocation and the expectation of it being a key
band for the deployment of 5G services. To support competition and
innovation, ISED is seeking to provide an opportunity for additional
licensees to deploy 5G services in the band, thus requiring current
licensees to return a portion of their spectrum holdings."
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) - Consultation on Revisions
to the 3500 MHz Band to Accommodate Flexible Use and Preliminary Consultation on
Changes to the 3800 MHz Band, Government of Canada
June, 2018
Click to view entire filing
20. Canada Launches 5G With Broader Coverage
Canadian carriers are looking to 3.5 GHz midband spectrum to establish the backbone of their 5G networks. This
suggests that the introduction of 5G services in Canada will cover a broader geographic footprint than the initial
coverage area in the U.S. The U.S. carriers, including Verizon and AT&T, initially deployed over mmWave
spectrum, which is distance-limited, prompting the carriers to only offer service in select sections of a few cities in
2H. Canadian carriers, using 3.5 GHz, should be able to achieve greater coverage with midband spectrum,
allowing them to serve a larger base of subscribers and benefit from a faster adoption of services. (01/28/19)
MidBand Offers Greater Coverage Than mmWave
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
21. Ubiquitous Coverage Needed to Simplify Service Management
The need for multiple carriers to provide connectivity for a single 5G use case is unappealing from an end-user
perspective. This scenario may arise for use cases that require broad network coverage, such as public safety
networks. It is unlikely that a single carrier will provide nationwide 5G coverage. But involving more than one
carrier for a single use case complicates management of the service. An official representing the city of Montreal
expressed this concern, based on past discussions with carriers about developing 5G use cases for the
government.
We believe this impediment will resonate with regional governments across Canada. Network roaming
agreements may be a mutually beneficial solution to enhance the appeal of broad-coverage use cases. (01/28/19)
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55
Current 4G Network Coverage in Canada
Source: Company Websites
To contact the analyst for this research:

John Butler at jbutler51@bloomberg.net
Bloomberg ® 02/16/2019 15:18:55

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BCE Research Primer

John Butler Boyoung Kim

1. BI Company Research Primer: BCE

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- COMPANY THESIS: Table of Contents

2. BCE's Fiber Build Fuels Growth, Capex Savings: Earnings Outlook

Highlights From Recent Results:

Segment Revenue (C$), Adjusted Ebitda Margin (%)

Source: Company Filings

Wireless Drives Overall Growth

Canadian Wireless Market Still Expanding, Driving BCE's Growth

4. Organic Subscriber Growth to Fuel Wireless Gains

BCE Wireless Revenue Growth (% YoY)

Source: Company Filings

5. Mobile-Video Consumption Driving ARPU Growth

Mobile Data Traffic, Video % of Total

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report

6. Investment in Spectrum to Continue

Canada Wireless Network Comparison

Source: OpenSignal, State of Mobile Networks: Canada (February 2018)

Fiber Boosts Wireline Growth

BCE Expanding Its Fiber Footprint to Sustain Wireline Growth

7. Strong Internet Growth Led by Fiber Expansion

2017 Fiber Broadband-Subscription Share in Canada

8. Acquisitions Accelerate Broadband Growth

BCE's Fiber-to-the-Premises Buildout Plan

9. Bundled TV Discounts to Drive Fiber Upgrades

BCE's Alt TV Subscriptions as of Aug. 24

BCE's Wireline Revenue, % Year-Over-Year Growth

Source: Company Filings

Media Pressured by Weak TV Ads

Bell Media Pressured by Weak TV Ad Market, Rising Content Costs

11. Bell Media Sales Dragged by Weak Ad Spending

Advertising Spending in Canada

12. OTT Drives Bell Media's Subscription Revenue

Canada Paid Over-the-Top Video Subscriptions

BCE Funds Dividend Increases

BCE to Fund Dividend Increases on Ebitda Growth and Stable Capex

13. Capital Intensity in 17% Range on Fiber Network Build

BCE Capital Intensity

14. Free Cash Flow Target Suggests Dividend Increases

BCE Dividends Per Share (C$)

5G to Emerge After Mid-2020

Canadian Carriers’ 5G Debut Not Until 2020 as 4G Growth Persists

15. Canadian Carriers to Launch 5G in Mid-2020

Canada 4G and 5G Mobile-Subscription Forecast

16. Deployment of 5G in 2020 Is More Prudent Than Late

Canada Debuts 5G After Use Cases and Devices Arise

Source: IDC, Ericsson, Bloomberg Intelligence

17. Regulation Not Conducive to Small-Cell Builds

Canada Could Adopt U.S. FCC Rules to Facilitate 5G

18. Shaw’s Cable Asset Key to 5G Densification

Shaw Gaining Wireless Subscriber Share in Canada

19. Rural Fixed-Wireless Push Bids to Keep 3.5 GHz

20. Canada Launches 5G With Broader Coverage

MidBand Offers Greater Coverage Than mmWave

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

21. Ubiquitous Coverage Needed to Simplify Service Management

Current 4G Network Coverage in Canada

Source: Company Websites

To contact the analyst for this research:

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