Part 1: How much does your vote count?

 Published on April 26, 2019

Harshal Ruikar

Note: This post is not political in nature. It's an amateur mathematical exercise.

Your vote is precious & every vote counts.

But do you think every vote counts equally? Well, may be not.

I collected data from the Election Commission of India's 2014 election report (as 2019 data will
be published next year) & did a quick analysis. Here's what I found -

1. In 2014 LS elections, there were 83,40,82,814 eligible electors for 543 seats. So, an
average of 15,36,064 electors per seat (see graph below). Thus, if a state has higher than
average electors per seat, a vote cast there would have lower electoral power, and vice
versa.
2. Uttar Pradesh (UP), the state with highest number of seats @80, also has the highest
number of electors per seat @17,35,132. This means that a vote cast in UP accounts to
13% less compared to the national average. After UP, electors in Rajasthan (12%) &
Maharashtra (9.6%) have the lowest electoral power.
3. Union territories (UT), with the exception of National Capital, and the hilly states have
the lowest numbers of electors per seat. Meaning that each vote cast there has a higher
than average electoral power.
4. If we exclude hilly states & UTs, electorates in Kerala have the highest electoral power -
as much as 20.8% higher than national average. Odisha (9.5%) & Tamil Nadu (8%) are
the next highest.
5. Andhra Pradesh (then inclusive of Telangana) is closest to the national average when
it comes to electoral power. I suspect that political gerrymandering played a crucial role
during the state's division in 2014. Would be interesting to see the current numbers.
More disparities can be found if we do this analysis at a seat level (which shall be covered in part
2 of this post); so elector power can vary greatly within a particular state. But besides the
obvious political reasons, there are factors like geography, local economy, urbanization,
population growth rates, migration, etc.. A longitudinal study shall reveal how much of this
picture is politically influenced.

Data Source: Election commission of India's Lok Sabha election report 2014
Part 2: How much does your vote count?
State-wise differences
 Published on April 30, 2019

Harshal Ruikar

In the previous post, we saw that 'Electoral Power' - the relative power of a vote compared to
national average - varies as per state. The comparison was done between the states.

This post goes one level deeper & evaluates these differences within the states.

The spread of electors per seat within a particular state can be compared through a measure
called 'standard deviation'. Higher values of standard deviation mean that the distribution of
electors per seats in that state is uneven- some seats may have more electoral power & others,
less.

Here are some observations supported by tables:

 Punjab, Gujarat & West Bengal have the most even electoral distribution & also
have a balanced electoral power. Electors here enjoy the ideal scenario.
 Andhra Pradesh, a state with electoral power closest to the national average, has quite
an unbalanced electoral distribution per seat. It would be interesting to see how the
scenario has changed after separation of Telangana & redrawing of the electoral
boundaries in 2014.
 Kerala & Himachal Pradesh, the states with high electoral power, have balanced
distribution of electors per seat. This indicates that these states have more seats & more
parliamentary representation than can be logically attributed.

 Rajasthan has an even distribution of electors per seat, but has lower number of seats
& less parliamentary representation than can be logically attributed.
 Delhi NCT, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh account up to 164 Lok
Sabha seats; that's 30.2% of the total. These states have the most skewed electoral
distribution & they also have the least electoral power. This could have been done to
ensure that these big states don't dominate the national scenario & smaller states get a
voice in the matter.

 Here's a list of top 20 parliamentary constituencies with the highest electoral power.
Interestingly, 13 out of the 20 LS seats in Kerala have the highest electoral power in
India. Polling percentage in these seats is also high.
 Here's a list of top 20
parliamentary
constituencies with the
highest electoral power.
Interestingly, 13 out of
the 20 LS seats in
Kerala have the
highest electoral power
in India. Polling
percentage in these
seats is also high.

 Similarly, here's the

list of bottom 20
constituencies when
ranked as per electoral
power. Malkajgiri in
Telangana has
electoral population as
huge as two
constituencies in one -
so voters there have the
lowest electoral power.
Also, all four seats
from Bengaluru
feature in the bottom
20; polling percentage
in these seats is
relatively low.
In other democracies, specifically in the US, gerrymandering has become huge issue. Faults in
the electoral distribution & legislative loopholes have been exploited by political parties to
maximize their political gains.

Since this exercise is statistical & depends on multiple factors, it hasn't captured the attention of
the masses & hasn't received much attention in media as well. But Indian voters need to be
mindful of these facts, because a small change in the electoral boundaries can lead to a huge
impact on national politics & ultimately, on public policy.

Over time, an average voter in the certain regions may start feeling that his/her
vote is not valued enough & that we should we redraw the boundaries to make it
fairer.

There is an independent body called Delimitation Commission of India which has the power to
redraw the boundaries of constituencies. The current boundaries are established based on 2001
census when India's population was 102,87,37,436. It has since increased to over 130 crore - an
increase of 27%, thus prompting a need for re-evaluation.

I am hopeful that this issue will get more exposure in near future.

Let's be mindful, engaged citizens and make each vote count.

Data Source: Election commission of India's Lok Sabha election report 2014