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Markets May Remain Range November, 2010
Markets May Remain Range November, 2010
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INSIDE
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GLOBAL SNAPSHOT make more, for sure.
The European sovereign debt crisis of spring 2010 was a misnomer in more ways than one: there was not one crisis but two. And
it will continue well beyond 2010, in our view. The first crisis was, and remains, an institutional crisis of the euro, caused by a
flawed multilateral fiscal surveillance framework. This is reflected by the acceptance by the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese
governments of fiscal measures largely dictated from Berlin and Brussels. The second crisis was, and remains, a sovereign debt
crisis: a crisis caused by sovereign balance sheets being overstretched, to the point where insolvency ceases to be merely possible
and becomes plausible. This crisis is not limited to the periphery of Europe. It is a global crisis and it is far from over. However
there are good reasons why government bonds should rank senior to most other liabilities. To mention one: governments need to
be able to raise finance to fund public investment as well as to perform their macroeconomic stabilization role. They cannot issue
equity, and cannot credibly issue secured debt2. Unrestricted access to unsecured, confidence-based funding is core to their
'business model', as it is for banks. This was, historically at least, the main argument for honoring sovereign debt. There are
others, not least the consequences of a government default for output and for financial stability when banks own substantial
exposure to the sovereign.
2
make more, for sure. ECONOMY UPDATE
INDIAN ECONOMY - ON THE TRACK BUT EARNINGS REVISIONS ARE NO LONGER HEADED SOUTH
India´s economy chalked up impressive real GDP expansion of 8.6% year-on-
year (y-o-y) (and 13.4% saar quarter-on-quarter [q-o-q]) in Q110 (Q4 FY
2009/10). The quarterly outturn helped to propel full fiscal year growth to
7.4% in FY 2009/10 (April-March). While we believe headline expansion
should cool going forward, India´s domestic demand-driven economy and a
lack of direct exposure to the Chinese economy should propel real GDP growth
to a robust 7.8% for both FY 2010/2011 and FY 2011/2012. With the economy
well on track, the government will need to address pressing internal security
issues as well as the urgent need to boost the country´s infrastructure
capacity. The success of policies on all these issues will undoubtedly help shape
the country´s long-term economic prospects, on which we remain bullish
overall, penciling average real GDP growth of 7.7% over the next decade.
In the 12 months since the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
won the general elections in 2009, the Indian economy has performed
well and, notably, steps are being taken to address the fiscal situation.
In particular, we point to the removal of fuel subsidies that will have a
significant positive impact on the government budget for the longer
term. Despite success on the economic front, the UPA still faces considerable challenges in the form of a resurgent Naxalite
threat and still-frosty relations with Pakistan.
India´s real estate market has recovered strongly over the last three quarters, sparking fears that emerging Asia´s second-largest
economy might be facing a reflated property bubble. In our view, although there are parallels to be drawn with the Chinese
property market (on which we are decidedly bearish), we argue that India faces comparatively more benign macroeconomic
conditions over the medium term. Therefore, we are in favour of price stability in the residential market over the next year,
noting that the bulk of price increases might be behind us. For commercial real estate, ample upcoming supply for the retail and
commercial segments should limit rent increases in the coming quarters.
Awaiting February 2010 (as per the 2004-05 WPI series), food and textiles contributed more than 60% of the overall 9.7% WPI
inflation on account of the drought-driven increase in the prices of food grains, sugar and cotton, among others. By August 2010,
their contribution to the 8.7% WPI, though still high at 47% was on a downward trend. Oil's contribution to overall inflation
increased to 18% from 13%. Contribution of other items (having more than 54% weightage in the WPI index) increased to 37% in
August 2010 due to the increased prices of coal, metals, electricity and wood products among others, indicating that inflation is
becoming more broad based. Over the next few months, we expect inflation to continue to moderate from the peak levels seen in
the recent months. underrepresented in GDP.
3
TECHNICAL PICKS make more, for sure.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
NDTV LTD
MANSUKH DESK
New Delhi Television (NDTV) was founded
in 1988. It started its journey by live election
coverage in India. Later in 1998 it became
India's first 24-hour channel in alliance with
Star. During this period it also produced 80%
of the content for BBC India. It also launched
NDTV Online in 1998. Today NDTV is India's
first and largest private producer of news,
current affairs and entertainment television.
Presently it beams channels like NDTV 24X7,
NDTV Good Times, NDTV Profit, NDTC
Imagine to the Indian audiences. It also
provides news to mobile users through NDTV
Active. NDTV has also launched 'Astro
Awani' channel in Indonesia in partnership
with Astro, a leading South East Asia media
group. It is a 24 hour news, infotainment and
lifestyle channel. It has also launched NDTV
Arabia catering to the Middle East countries.
On technical perspective, stock currently in its
retracement phase from the highs of Rs 117 on
daily basis. Moreover entire correction from
the highs of Rs 131 to the lows of Rs 100 seems
to be completing at current juncture and we
expect some counter actions in upcoming
sessions. Moreover technical indicators i.e.
RSI and MACD also revealed some buying
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION opportunities in near term. Hence investors
are advised to BUY this stock for the target of
NDTV 100-102 130 135 95 1 Month Rs.130-135 in one month.
4
make more, for sure. FUNDAMENTAL PICKS
FUNDAMENTAL PICK
Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd Target Price: 51
Qtr & Yr Ended Q2FY11 Q2FY10 FY10 Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited (MCF), part of the UB
Group with group shareholding of 30.44% is the manufacturer of both
nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers in the State of Karnataka. The
Company has capacity to manufacture 2,17,800 MT Ammonia, 3,79,500 MT
Urea, 2,55,500 MT Phosphatic, 15,330 MT Ammonium Bi-Carbonate and
33,000 MT Sulphuric Acid annually. The factory is situated on the banks of
the Gurpur River, in front of the New Mangalore Port and the plant is also
well connected, both by rail and road.
FINANCIALS: During FY05 to FY10 the Topline of the company grew by
CAGR of around 19%, Operating Profit and Net Profit of the company has
also grown by 25% and 20% respectively. In FY10 due to poor monsoon the
Net Sales of MCF came down by 16% to Rs 2075.65 crore over FY09,
Operating Profit also declined by 1.5% to Rs 130.61 crore while MCF has
managed to report more than 100% jump in Net Profit to Rs 56.49 over FY09.
In Q2FY11 the Net Sales of the company surged by 67.5%, Operating Profit
and PAT also grew by 58% & 127% respectively. The OPM & PATM of MCF
for the same period were 5.8% & 3.3% respectively.
INVESTMENT GROUNDS
Industry Outlook
India's agricultural sector is the foundation of the rural economy and all
socio-economic privileges and hardships always revolve around it, and any
change in its structure draws a corresponding impact on the existing
pattern of social equality. Fertilizer being the key efficiency booster in the
entire production process occupies a center stage in rural economy. It is so
significant that even the Indian National political scenario gets influenced
by any amendments in the Fertilizer Policy. In FY10 Due to poor monsoon
the fertilizer demand was slack down but now in FY11 the demand for both
Nitrogenous & Phosphatic fertilizers is increasing steadily and expected to
grow at a compounded annual rate of 5%. With the domestic production
almost stagnant and the demand supply gap widening, the supply deficit
has to be met from imports.
Nutrition Based Subsidy will add Volume Growth
To give the nourishment to Indian economy the government of India has also taken step to encourage the fertilizer sector in India and
has implemented a scheme of Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme (NBS) with effect from 1.4.2010 and also announced concession rates for
the year 2010-11 in advance, thereby facilitating import of higher quantities of Phosphatic and Potassic fertilizers. This move of the
Government indicates a step towards further reforms in the fertilizer sector. MCF has also entered into agreements with leading
suppliers of fertilizers abroad for import of DAP and MOP on a larger scale compared to last year.
Insured Gas Supply to improve the Margins
MCF is in process for receiving the gas supply to its Mangalore project and the work on the LNG terminal at Kochi is also progressing
well. GAIL has already entered into a MOU with Governments of Karnataka and Kerala for right of use for laying the pipeline from
Kochi to Mangalore. The gas pipeline connectivity to Mangalore is expected only by end of 2012. The Company is in final stage of
concluding gas supply agreement with IOC and gas transportation agreement with GAIL. Considering the importance of fertilizer for
ensuring food security in the country, Government of India has agreed to allocate gas on priority to fertilizer companies.
An Incredible Market Share in South India
MCF is the only manufacturer of fertilizers in the State of Karnataka. About 65% of the Company's products are sold in the State of
Karnataka, which meets about 25% of the needs of the farmers in the State. The Company has maintained a modest share of the market in
the neighboring States of Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. MCF is also looking for diversifying into other
products that are synergistic with the existing operations. In addition, MCF has increased imports of DAP and specialty fertilizers and a
major thrust have been given to maximize trading operations and focus on the Integrated Nutrient Management business.
5
MARKET TUTORIALS make more, for sure.
Prospectus
A large number of new companies float public issues. While a large number of these companies are genuine, quite a few may want to
exploit the investors. Therefore, it is very important that an investor before applying for any issue identifies future potential of a
company. A part of the guidelines issued by SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) is the disclosure of 23 information to the
public. This disclosure includes information like the reason for raising the money, the way money is proposed to be spent, the return
expected on the money etc. This information is in the form of 'Prospectus' which also includes information regarding the size of the
issue, the current status of the company, its equity capital, its current and past performance, the promoters, the project, cost of the
project, means of financing, product and capacity etc. It also contains lot of mandatory information regarding underwriting and
statutory compliances. This helps
Cut-Off Price
In a Book building issue, the issuer is required to indicate either the price band or a floor price in the prospectus. The actual discovered
issue price can be any price in the price band or any price above the floor price. This issue price is called “Cut-Off Price”. The issuer and
lead manager decides this after considering the book and the investors' appetite for the stock.
Issue Price
The price at which a company's shares are offered initially in the primary market is called as the Issue price. When they begin to be
traded, the market price may be above or below the issue price.
6
make more, for sure. COMMODITY SECTION
For those that have been invested in this sector since 2004, we can recognize the period from 2004-2009 as being the awareness phase. And that brings us to
August of 2010, which began the very first baby-steps into the mania phase. We can see all the signs of it around us now. Gold is mentioned more and more in
the media and it has begun to start making all-time highs on a regular basis.
The dumb money, governments and central banks, are finally starting to catch on to what is happening. The central bank of Bangladesh bought 10 metric
tonnes of gold from the IMF last month. This is on top of 212 tons of gold the IMF sold last year to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius, and the
central bank of Sri Lanka. And Saudi Arabia, Russia and the Philippines have recently announced big additions to their gold reserves. But how can we be sure
that we aren't very close to the peak in the precious metals market? Nothing is certain in life but there are numerous indications that we are still early on in the
mania phase.
As we can see, if we are near the top then this was one of the most disappointing bull markets in bubble history! In fact, just to match the gold & silver bull
market of the early 1980s gold would have to quadruple in price from here to $5,200 per ounce. And we think this bull market will be much stronger than the
1980 bull market.
7
AUXILIARY SECTION make more, for sure.
Companies Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y EPS Y-o-Y PATM Y-o-Y CMP Market
Net Sales Chng PBIDT Chng PAT Chng Rs Chng (%) Chng Rs P/E Cap.
Reliance Inds. 57479.0 22.7% 9396.0 30.2% 4923.0 27.8% 15.0 28.4% 8.21 0.32 1096 19.4 358588
ONGC 18193.6 20.6% 11321.8 26.1% 5388.8 5.9% 25.2 5.9% 29.17 -3.90 1303 17.6 278749
TCS 7267.5 26.5% 2158.6 29.1% 1812.7 34.5% 9.3 34.5% 24.94 1.48 1052 32.4 205861
Infosys Tech 6425.0 23.5% 2176.0 21.0% 1641.0 14.1% 28.6 14.1% 25.54 -2.11 2970 28.8 170465
NTPC 12989.3 20.5% 3871.9 5.1% 2107.4 -2.1% 2.6 -2.1% 15.79 -3.34 195 19.3 160745
ICICI Bank 6309.1 -5.2% 634.0 3.7% 1236.3 18.9% 10.7 15.0% 19.60 3.97 1162 30.5 133372
ITC 5061.2 16.3% 1874.9 17.9% 1246.7 23.5% 1.6 21.6% 24.22 1.30 171 29.3 131504
Larsen & Toubro 9260.8 17.7% 1005.7 20.0% 694.1 19.6% 11.5 16.2% 7.37 0.11 2022 35.9 122891
BHEL 8328.4 25.7% 1632.4 32.5% 1142.3 33.2% 23.3 33.2% 12.87 0.64 2446 25.0 119722
HDFC Bank 4810.0 20.5% 846.4 56.9% 912.1 32.7% 19.7 22.6% 18.96 1.74 2278 31.2 105386
Wipro 6556.9 11.9% 1362.9 -7.1% 1172.1 -4.9% 4.8 -5.2% 17.88 -3.16 420 21.7 102862
HDFC 2906.6 4.4% 2791.8 3.9% 807.5 21.6% 5.5 18.7% 27.78 3.93 687 32.4 100445
SAIL 10602.9 6.6% 1694.8 -29.0% 1090.0 -34.5% 2.6 -34.5% 9.16 -6.21 195 13.4 80522
Jindal Steel 2295.5 42.7% 856.0 51.9% 478.2 56.8% 5.1 837.5% 20.79 1.85 697 36.4 65086
Hind. Unilever 4680.9 10.7% 646.9 -0.8% 566.1 32.1% 2.6 32.0% 11.88 1.84 294 28.7 64176
Axis Bank 3624.3 26.7% 453.1 88.7% 735.1 38.3% 18.0 35.9% 20.28 1.70 1467 20.7 60040
Sterlite Inds. 2902.4 -19.7% 136.3 7.6% 400.9 91.3% 1.2 91.4% 13.79 8.00 169 42.7 56710
Maruti Suzuki 8937.1 26.8% 960.3 4.8% 598.2 5.0% 20.7 5.0% 5.87 -1.36 1551 18.6 44816
Bajaj Auto 4180.9 49.7% 897.2 41.0% 682.1 69.3% 11.8 -15.3% 14.86 1.61 1514 19.2 43804
Sun Pharma 512.2 8.0% 337.3 27.5% 345.7 70.3% 16.7 70.3% 42.78 12.21 2107 35.1 43646
Mah. & Mah. 5311.3 19.0% 895.0 7.7% 758.5 7.9% 13.3 3.4% 12.73 -1.26 732 18.9 43622
Power Grid 2126.6 25.0% 1785.8 25.3% 654.9 42.1% 1.6 42.1% 30.80 3.71 100 17.6 42194
PNB 6455.4 21.7% 1381.9 65.5% 1074.6 15.9% 34.1 15.9% 16.65 -0.83 1291 9.5 40690
Hero Honda 4511.3 11.7% 607.9 -18.3% 505.6 -15.3% 25.3 -15.3% 10.33 -3.47 1866 17.5 37258
Kotak Mah. 1014.7 30.9% 187.4 38.6% 194.7 54.6% 1.3 -26.9% 19.19 2.94 465 46.9 34088
Dr Reddy' 1278.3 19.1% 273.9 -7.3% 220.2 11.7% 13.0 11.4% 16.87 -0.52 1658 31.7 28054
Sesa Goa 803.8 79.3% 258.3 142.3% 353.0 153.7% 4.1 142.2% 43.34 12.49 322 9.4 27648
HCL Tech 1498.3 20.1% 278.3 -26.9% 194.9 -35.2% 2.9 -36.0% 13.01 -11.11 404 29.0 27578
JP Associates 2993.3 62.3% 759.0 45.9% 113.5 -87.0% 0.5 -87.1% 3.70 -42.37 120 14.8 25570
Ambuja Cement 1564.0 -2.9% 302.2 -34.5% 152.1 -52.2% 1.0 -52.3% 9.61 -9.78 140 17.1 21331
Source: ACE Equity Rs Crore